Me: "I wonder why the Alliance Party are doing so bad--"
Alliance Party: "Our only link is we want more voting reform and that's it."
Me: "Oh."
Alliance Party: "Our only link is we want more voting reform and that's it."
Me: "Oh."
-
Hi Guest!
The costs of running this forum are covered by Sea Lion Press. If you'd like to help support the company and the forum, visit patreon.com/sealionpress
AMERICA DIVIDES: The Multi-Party US Election of 2016
- Thread starter Thande
- Start date
15
The screen shifted to show a large room, perhaps a church community centre, with a circle - more of a rather bulgy oval - of seats occupied by eclectically-dressed, uncomfortable-looking people.
"They may not look like much, but these are some of the most significant players in America's old third parties," said the voice of the unseen Katty Kay. The voiceover didn't quite overrule the background noise of the ongoing argument in the background: "I meant what if the child consents to indentured servitude, you pervert!"
"We don't agree on much," admitted a man in a cowboy hat to Kay's microphone, giving it a suspicious look. He had the Preamble to the Articles of Confederation tattooed on his forehead in mirror writing. "But after some hard negotiation, we agreed that the platform should just require the FBI to give up the real secret of JFK's assassination, and agree to differ on whether it was Freemasons or aliens for now."
Cut to a woman in a cardigan made entirely out of marijuana leaves. "We always have to remember, like, that's just your opinion, man," she said dreamily. "Some of us want to save the whales and others want to eat them raw with their robotic Japanese girlfriends, but, like, there are things we have common ground on." ("Such as?" asked Kay off-camera) "Well, like, we all oppose US interventionist foreign policy, for different reasons maybe, but we got a two-thirds majority resolution that the platform should affirm our desire to suck Vladimir Putin's d-"
Merciful cutaway to the familiar - to Americans and viewers of Saturday Night Live, at least - set of Jeopardy! A striking, weathered-looking man, with the wobbly signature 'GARY' on the blue screen on the front of his podium, was answering Alex Trebek. "I'll take World Cities for six hundred dollars, Alex."
"Gary Johnson is considered one of the old Libertarian Party's most mainstream and credible figures," said Kay's voiceover, talking over the appropriate square on the column of blue screens matching the words Trebek read out: "It is one of the oldest cities in the world and the second largest in the Republic of Syria."
"He was elected twice as Governor of New Mexico, an important position, in the 1990s - as a Republican," Kay continued. "After changing parties, Mr Johnson clarified that while he stood as a Republican, he believes he governed as a Libertarian." In the background footage, Johnson frowned and then, with a moment of realisation, pressed his buzzer. "What is 'Aleppo'?"
The scene abruptly cut to Kay interviewing Johnson. "Mr Johnson, you stood as the Libertarian candidate for President in 2012 and won one percent of the vote. That may not sound very impressive, but it was the best score for any third party in years. Do you think there's a larger constituency of Americans out there willing to vote for the Alliance?"
Johnson frowned. "Well, Katty, you say it's not impressive, but yeah, we're in a climate where everything's one or the other, you have to vote Republican to beat the Democrat, or the other way around. So it's not surprising..."
Kay interrupted him, provoking the usual confusion from US politicians exposed to BBC reporting for the first time. "But under Mr Obama's reforms, it's not only two parties anymore. So why can't the Libertarians just compete with everyone else?"
There was a flicker suggesting an edit. "We do support the move towards voting reform," Johnson said, sounding reluctant. "But this form of government still discriminates against smaller parties. We urge the voters to back the Alliance as a vote for change that will truly make this government by, for and of the people."
"Well, that all sounds very sensible," Kay said, sounding faintly surprised.
"Sure does," Johnson said with a grin, opening his jacket to reveal an extraordinary array of items in his pockets. "Now, you wanna get high?"
Abrupt cut to Kay speaking to someone else, a grinning bald man in a dark suit. "Another of the major players in the Alliance Party is Evan McMullin, a former CIA agent from Utah. Mr McMullin, what has led you to lead the Alliance campaign among the Mormons?"
"Well, Katty, we deplore the fact that Trump's fascist campaign has been allowed and hasn't been censured," McMullin said, "and if I had my way I'd put a bullet in the back of-" (another abrupt cut) "-have a really hurtful hit musical written about him," said an unconvincing dub-over while his lips moved differently.
"But why not just continue with the Conservatives, as the primary successors to the Republicans?" Kay asked.
"I'm not happy with how much the Conservatives have let Trump's rhetoric influence their own campaign," McMullin declared, "and the decent folk of the West aren't going to stand for it. Call it a protest vote if you want, but we want to show them we can't be taken for granted."
"Well, that also sounds very sensible," Kay said. "Wanna cuppa?"
Abrupt cut. "I somehow appear to have mortally offended Mr McMuffin there, but you can see the diversity of opinion among the Alliance Party. They come from all across the political spectrum. Virgil Goode, from the Constitution Party, recently came a narrow second to the UK's own Geoffrey Cox in the International Best Politician's Voice competition, and he isn't happy about Mr Cruz stealing his party's name."
"I tell you, the boy ain't right," Goode said in his magnificent drawl. "Back in ol' Virginny, we'd have hung him upside down in the ol' molasses pit till he tell us where the bodies are buried. Look, we need compromises to get our way. I beat Weed twice back in the day, but these fine gentlemen don't hold that agin me."
Another abrupt cut. "And Jill Stein was the Green Party nominee in 2012," Kay continued. "Green parties outside the US tend to emphasise environmentalism, renewable energy and/or claiming to be so while actually stopping nuclear power plants and building coal ones. I attempted to ask Ms Stein about how she reconciled this with her more right-wing partners, but I'm afraid we had to cut our interview short when a giant zombie ape grabbed her and took her up Chicago's Trump Tower. Thus far Mr Trump himself has denied any responsibility, but that doesn't necessarily mean he was responsible. We await updates on what has happened."
Cut back to the room full of arguing third partiers. "The Alliance Party will hold together only as long as it needs to," Kay concluded, "or until all its candidates die from those asbestos vapes they were handing out at the front desk. The question remains: even combined, will the small voteshares of America's old third parties lead to any results on election night?"
The screen faded to black. "And the answer appears to be 'no'," live-action Kay concluded. "As you said, thus far the Alliance has struggled to break five percent in most parts of the country, and has yet to win any seats. But perhaps that might change when we reach the areas in which Mr Johnson and Mr McMullin have been campaigning in."
"Perhaps. For now, inevitably, we have more results."
"Pennsylvania's fourteenth district takes in the city of Pittsburgh - or a gerrymandered chunk of the centre of it - which was named, of course, after William Pitt the Elder. Fairly close there between the Liberals and Progressives, closer perhaps than was projected."
"This New York district is nowhere near the city of New York, but rather takes in the town of Rochester on Lake Ontario - another familiar name from home, of course. Whereas the Rochester at home has been in the news for Mark Reckless' defection to the English Democrats, this one is more left-wing, though the third seat has gone to the Nationals."
"Another of Maryland's nightmarishly-gerrymandered districts, a place where again, we might have expected all three seats to go to the Liberals, but in fact the Progressives have just managed to snatch the third."
"Georgia's eleventh district, in the northwestern part of the edge of Atlanta's built-up area, another fairly rare win for the Conservatives, their candidate Barry Loudermilk topping the polls."
"...as opposed to what, quiet milk?"
"Don't ask."
"This one, on the other hand, does take in a big part of the core of New York City, including large chunks of Manhattan and Brooklyn and a little of Queens. Another area where we might have expected a Liberal blowout, yet again, there's a substantial Progressive vote and one seat goes to them."
"And another result from Tennessee - we've not seen many of those so far. This is a strongly right-wing district in the middle part of the state, and all three seats have gone to all three right-wing parties. Perhaps enough results to update the map?"
"Frankly, no...put that thing away! But one thing you can update us on is how many seats are now declared, as we continue to fill in the East Coast."
"Very well...we have just reached 411 seats declared, which is nearly thirty percent of the whole. And here are the current totals..."
"But things could still change and there is much still to play for as more and more Americans cast their votes..."
"They may not look like much, but these are some of the most significant players in America's old third parties," said the voice of the unseen Katty Kay. The voiceover didn't quite overrule the background noise of the ongoing argument in the background: "I meant what if the child consents to indentured servitude, you pervert!"
"We don't agree on much," admitted a man in a cowboy hat to Kay's microphone, giving it a suspicious look. He had the Preamble to the Articles of Confederation tattooed on his forehead in mirror writing. "But after some hard negotiation, we agreed that the platform should just require the FBI to give up the real secret of JFK's assassination, and agree to differ on whether it was Freemasons or aliens for now."
Cut to a woman in a cardigan made entirely out of marijuana leaves. "We always have to remember, like, that's just your opinion, man," she said dreamily. "Some of us want to save the whales and others want to eat them raw with their robotic Japanese girlfriends, but, like, there are things we have common ground on." ("Such as?" asked Kay off-camera) "Well, like, we all oppose US interventionist foreign policy, for different reasons maybe, but we got a two-thirds majority resolution that the platform should affirm our desire to suck Vladimir Putin's d-"
Merciful cutaway to the familiar - to Americans and viewers of Saturday Night Live, at least - set of Jeopardy! A striking, weathered-looking man, with the wobbly signature 'GARY' on the blue screen on the front of his podium, was answering Alex Trebek. "I'll take World Cities for six hundred dollars, Alex."
"Gary Johnson is considered one of the old Libertarian Party's most mainstream and credible figures," said Kay's voiceover, talking over the appropriate square on the column of blue screens matching the words Trebek read out: "It is one of the oldest cities in the world and the second largest in the Republic of Syria."
"He was elected twice as Governor of New Mexico, an important position, in the 1990s - as a Republican," Kay continued. "After changing parties, Mr Johnson clarified that while he stood as a Republican, he believes he governed as a Libertarian." In the background footage, Johnson frowned and then, with a moment of realisation, pressed his buzzer. "What is 'Aleppo'?"
The scene abruptly cut to Kay interviewing Johnson. "Mr Johnson, you stood as the Libertarian candidate for President in 2012 and won one percent of the vote. That may not sound very impressive, but it was the best score for any third party in years. Do you think there's a larger constituency of Americans out there willing to vote for the Alliance?"
Johnson frowned. "Well, Katty, you say it's not impressive, but yeah, we're in a climate where everything's one or the other, you have to vote Republican to beat the Democrat, or the other way around. So it's not surprising..."
Kay interrupted him, provoking the usual confusion from US politicians exposed to BBC reporting for the first time. "But under Mr Obama's reforms, it's not only two parties anymore. So why can't the Libertarians just compete with everyone else?"
There was a flicker suggesting an edit. "We do support the move towards voting reform," Johnson said, sounding reluctant. "But this form of government still discriminates against smaller parties. We urge the voters to back the Alliance as a vote for change that will truly make this government by, for and of the people."
"Well, that all sounds very sensible," Kay said, sounding faintly surprised.
"Sure does," Johnson said with a grin, opening his jacket to reveal an extraordinary array of items in his pockets. "Now, you wanna get high?"
Abrupt cut to Kay speaking to someone else, a grinning bald man in a dark suit. "Another of the major players in the Alliance Party is Evan McMullin, a former CIA agent from Utah. Mr McMullin, what has led you to lead the Alliance campaign among the Mormons?"
"Well, Katty, we deplore the fact that Trump's fascist campaign has been allowed and hasn't been censured," McMullin said, "and if I had my way I'd put a bullet in the back of-" (another abrupt cut) "-have a really hurtful hit musical written about him," said an unconvincing dub-over while his lips moved differently.
"But why not just continue with the Conservatives, as the primary successors to the Republicans?" Kay asked.
"I'm not happy with how much the Conservatives have let Trump's rhetoric influence their own campaign," McMullin declared, "and the decent folk of the West aren't going to stand for it. Call it a protest vote if you want, but we want to show them we can't be taken for granted."
"Well, that also sounds very sensible," Kay said. "Wanna cuppa?"
Abrupt cut. "I somehow appear to have mortally offended Mr McMuffin there, but you can see the diversity of opinion among the Alliance Party. They come from all across the political spectrum. Virgil Goode, from the Constitution Party, recently came a narrow second to the UK's own Geoffrey Cox in the International Best Politician's Voice competition, and he isn't happy about Mr Cruz stealing his party's name."
"I tell you, the boy ain't right," Goode said in his magnificent drawl. "Back in ol' Virginny, we'd have hung him upside down in the ol' molasses pit till he tell us where the bodies are buried. Look, we need compromises to get our way. I beat Weed twice back in the day, but these fine gentlemen don't hold that agin me."
Another abrupt cut. "And Jill Stein was the Green Party nominee in 2012," Kay continued. "Green parties outside the US tend to emphasise environmentalism, renewable energy and/or claiming to be so while actually stopping nuclear power plants and building coal ones. I attempted to ask Ms Stein about how she reconciled this with her more right-wing partners, but I'm afraid we had to cut our interview short when a giant zombie ape grabbed her and took her up Chicago's Trump Tower. Thus far Mr Trump himself has denied any responsibility, but that doesn't necessarily mean he was responsible. We await updates on what has happened."
Cut back to the room full of arguing third partiers. "The Alliance Party will hold together only as long as it needs to," Kay concluded, "or until all its candidates die from those asbestos vapes they were handing out at the front desk. The question remains: even combined, will the small voteshares of America's old third parties lead to any results on election night?"
The screen faded to black. "And the answer appears to be 'no'," live-action Kay concluded. "As you said, thus far the Alliance has struggled to break five percent in most parts of the country, and has yet to win any seats. But perhaps that might change when we reach the areas in which Mr Johnson and Mr McMullin have been campaigning in."
"Perhaps. For now, inevitably, we have more results."
Rich (BB code):
PA-14
Lib 127,184 36.3%
Prog 104,368 29.8%
Nat 55,424 15.8%
Fus 51,676 14.7%
All 12,121 3.5%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 350,774
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib"Pennsylvania's fourteenth district takes in the city of Pittsburgh - or a gerrymandered chunk of the centre of it - which was named, of course, after William Pitt the Elder. Fairly close there between the Liberals and Progressives, closer perhaps than was projected."
Rich (BB code):
NY-25
Lib 95,327 28.9%
Prog 87,569 26.6%
Nat 65,933 20%
Fus 63,022 19.1%
All 17,592 5.3%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 329,443
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Nat"This New York district is nowhere near the city of New York, but rather takes in the town of Rochester on Lake Ontario - another familiar name from home, of course. Whereas the Rochester at home has been in the news for Mark Reckless' defection to the English Democrats, this one is more left-wing, though the third seat has gone to the Nationals."
Rich (BB code):
MD-04
Lib 183,567 56.5%
Prog 67,362 20.7%
Nat 32,549 10%
Fus 31,524 9.7%
All 10,078 3.1%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 325,081
MCs elected:
Lib
Lib
Prog"Another of Maryland's nightmarishly-gerrymandered districts, a place where again, we might have expected all three seats to go to the Liberals, but in fact the Progressives have just managed to snatch the third."
Rich (BB code):
GA-11
Con 84,167 25.5%
Lib 69,736 21.2%
Nat 68,946 20.9%
Prog 46,721 14.2%
Cst 45,699 13.9%
All 14,345 4.4%
Fus 0 0%
Total 329,615
MCs elected:
Con
Lib
Nat"Georgia's eleventh district, in the northwestern part of the edge of Atlanta's built-up area, another fairly rare win for the Conservatives, their candidate Barry Loudermilk topping the polls."
"...as opposed to what, quiet milk?"
"Don't ask."
Rich (BB code):
NY-12
Lib 160,975 52.5%
Prog 94,626 30.8%
Fus 23,316 7.6%
Nat 18,068 5.9%
All 9,925 3.2%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 306,910
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib"This one, on the other hand, does take in a big part of the core of New York City, including large chunks of Manhattan and Brooklyn and a little of Queens. Another area where we might have expected a Liberal blowout, yet again, there's a substantial Progressive vote and one seat goes to them."
Rich (BB code):
TN-06
Nat 90,948 30.5%
Con 64,919 21.8%
Cst 60,594 20.3%
Lib 45,354 15.2%
Prog 25,194 8.5%
All 10,957 3.7%
Fus 0 0%
Total 297,967
MCs elected:
Nat
Con
Cst"And another result from Tennessee - we've not seen many of those so far. This is a strongly right-wing district in the middle part of the state, and all three seats have gone to all three right-wing parties. Perhaps enough results to update the map?"
"Frankly, no...put that thing away! But one thing you can update us on is how many seats are now declared, as we continue to fill in the East Coast."
"Very well...we have just reached 411 seats declared, which is nearly thirty percent of the whole. And here are the current totals..."
Rich (BB code):
Current totals
Lib 162
Nat 111
Prog 74
Con 37
Fus 15
Cst 12
All 0
"But things could still change and there is much still to play for as more and more Americans cast their votes..."
- Location
- Derbyshire
Hmm, adding the Con/Con/Fusion grouping together gets to 64- not quite so large a gulf with the Progressives.
They're unlikely to agree on how to operate under the new system past the election though.
16
"We have more results coming in from Virginia, with the third district, taking in the familiar-sounding name of Portsmouth..."
"High support for the left-wing parties here. This district also includes Newport News, which, ironically, is the oldest English city name in the Americas - so old nobody actually remembers why people in 1621 saw fit to name a town after what sounds like a local paper."
"And to the south, in North Carolina - haha, confusing - continuing strong support for the Constitution Party, but they don't quite edge out the Nationals, and the Progressives take the third seat."
"This district is in the Appalachian mountains, which was always the most Republican part of the state - it's definitely interesting that the Progressives edged out the Liberals to take the minority left-wing vote."
"And that the Conservatives are way behind in the fight for the right-wing vote, but well, that's a story we've already seen before."
"Back to New Jersey, and this is a district in the northern part of the state, north of New York City even. Again, that's a strong vote for the Nationals, who dominate the right-wing vote here - this is definitely one case where the attempt to unite the other right-wing parties as the Fusionists has backfired."
"Florida is now almost complete - a far cry from those recounts back in 2000! - and once again, it's mostly a fight between the Liberals and Nationals in the district near Orlando, which is the only part of the state we care ab-"
"Yes, alright, you've done that joke to death by now."
"It's a big state, there's a lot of districts! Anyway, this was formerly a close swing district between Democrats and Republicans, which, er, Florida didn't have many of thanks to gerrymandering. Now it's more diverse, and even the Progressives get what I think is their fourth seat here? Once again, scarcely resembling those Liberal predictions about the party's supposed lack of appeal, winning here even far from Bernie Sanders' New England home."
"Another rare case of all three seats going to one party - the Liberals again - in Georgia's fourth district, which takes in the eastern part of Atlanta and is a heavily BAME district. Once again, a former gerrymandering policy by the Republicans may have backfired under the new voting system."
"Yes, well, Jeremy, you really must-"
"Kentucky's second district, another heavily Republican one under the old landscape, a rural area south of Louisville," he momentarily forgot and pronounced it 'Louie-vee' as though it was in France. "All three seats go to the right-wing parties, and the Conservatives finally get thrown a bone - though they're still in third place..."
"And back to New York for the nineteenth district. This is a big one in the area of the Catskills, whatever they are, they always mention them in old novels, right? Anyway, another rural win for the New York Fusionists here, but the Progressives have also secured a seat. Their candidate was Zephyr Rain Teachout, who first came to public attention two years ago when she challenged--"
"Look, Jeremy, you can't just make names up, this is the BBC. Or if you do make them up, at least make them something like 'Metebelis III' or 'Guto Bebb'. But I was meaning to say-"
"Also the map's nearly finished!"
"Stop it with the m - look, before you go on - this is getting too chaotic. Jeremy, for the love of God, will you please explain for all the boys and girls at home what gerrymandering is?"
"I thought you'd never ask!"
Rich (BB code):
VA-03
Lib 146,497 45.3%
Prog 59,249 18.3%
Con 49,703 15.4%
Nat 37,837 11.7%
Cst 15,524 4.8%
All 14,612 4.5%
Fus 0 0%
Total 323,422
MCs elected:
Lib
Lib
Prog"High support for the left-wing parties here. This district also includes Newport News, which, ironically, is the oldest English city name in the Americas - so old nobody actually remembers why people in 1621 saw fit to name a town after what sounds like a local paper."
Rich (BB code):
NC-11
Nat 92,461 25.4%
Cst 87,171 23.9%
Prog 69,322 19%
Lib 54,485 15%
Con 50,370 13.8%
All 10,247 2.8%
Fus 0 0%
Total 364,055
MCs elected:
Nat
Cst
Prog"And to the south, in North Carolina - haha, confusing - continuing strong support for the Constitution Party, but they don't quite edge out the Nationals, and the Progressives take the third seat."
"This district is in the Appalachian mountains, which was always the most Republican part of the state - it's definitely interesting that the Progressives edged out the Liberals to take the minority left-wing vote."
"And that the Conservatives are way behind in the fight for the right-wing vote, but well, that's a story we've already seen before."
Rich (BB code):
NJ-09
Lib 115,623 41.8%
Nat 78,224 28.3%
Prog 62,331 22.5%
Fus 13,472 4.9%
All 7,089 2.6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 276,738
MCs elected:
Lib
Nat
Prog"Back to New Jersey, and this is a district in the northern part of the state, north of New York City even. Again, that's a strong vote for the Nationals, who dominate the right-wing vote here - this is definitely one case where the attempt to unite the other right-wing parties as the Fusionists has backfired."
Rich (BB code):
FL-07
Lib 108,759 29.9%
Prog 77,899 21.4%
Nat 70,172 19.3%
Con 58,504 16.1%
Cst 31,502 8.7%
All 16,350 4.5%
Fus 0 0%
Total 363,186
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Nat"Florida is now almost complete - a far cry from those recounts back in 2000! - and once again, it's mostly a fight between the Liberals and Nationals in the district near Orlando, which is the only part of the state we care ab-"
"Yes, alright, you've done that joke to death by now."
"It's a big state, there's a lot of districts! Anyway, this was formerly a close swing district between Democrats and Republicans, which, er, Florida didn't have many of thanks to gerrymandering. Now it's more diverse, and even the Progressives get what I think is their fourth seat here? Once again, scarcely resembling those Liberal predictions about the party's supposed lack of appeal, winning here even far from Bernie Sanders' New England home."
Rich (BB code):
GA-04
Lib 169,982 56.9%
Prog 54,925 18.4%
Con 27,368 9.2%
Nat 23,256 7.8%
Cst 15,808 5.3%
All 7,323 2.5%
Fus 0 0%
Total 298,663
MCs elected:
Lib
Lib
Lib"Another rare case of all three seats going to one party - the Liberals again - in Georgia's fourth district, which takes in the eastern part of Atlanta and is a heavily BAME district. Once again, a former gerrymandering policy by the Republicans may have backfired under the new voting system."
"Yes, well, Jeremy, you really must-"
Rich (BB code):
KY-02
Nat 77,870 24%
Cst 73,402 22.6%
Con 67,881 20.9%
Prog 46,455 14.3%
Lib 43,108 13.3%
All 15,797 4.9%
Fus 0 0%
Total 324,512
MCs elected:
Nat
Cst
Con"Kentucky's second district, another heavily Republican one under the old landscape, a rural area south of Louisville," he momentarily forgot and pronounced it 'Louie-vee' as though it was in France. "All three seats go to the right-wing parties, and the Conservatives finally get thrown a bone - though they're still in third place..."
Rich (BB code):
NY-19
Nat 96,972 30.4%
Prog 82,511 25.8%
Fus 65,293 20.4%
Lib 58,007 18.2%
All 16,669 5.2%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 319,452
MCs elected:
Nat
Prog
Fus"And back to New York for the nineteenth district. This is a big one in the area of the Catskills, whatever they are, they always mention them in old novels, right? Anyway, another rural win for the New York Fusionists here, but the Progressives have also secured a seat. Their candidate was Zephyr Rain Teachout, who first came to public attention two years ago when she challenged--"
"Look, Jeremy, you can't just make names up, this is the BBC. Or if you do make them up, at least make them something like 'Metebelis III' or 'Guto Bebb'. But I was meaning to say-"
"Also the map's nearly finished!"
"Stop it with the m - look, before you go on - this is getting too chaotic. Jeremy, for the love of God, will you please explain for all the boys and girls at home what gerrymandering is?"
"I thought you'd never ask!"
Just a short update today as I was spending most of my time finishing off LTTW volume 6, which is getting readied for publication. And also having my birthday.
Kinda interesting how the progs end up being the ones who still pick up seats in conservative parts of blue states like New York. This is dynamics like this that do not matter at all under FPTP and disappear under the current system to the detriment of political discourse.
17
"Gerrymandering," Jeremy Vine pontificated, "was a term coined in 1812. In the old days, if you were Elizabeth I, you didn't have to mess around with borders to manipulate the vote - just create more parliamentary seats for your supporters based on no-name villages. Rotten boroughs. But here in America, a very strict rule of the constitution is that their districts have to be jolly nearly equal in population."
"So they could never be manipulated?" Neil obligingly asked theatrically.
"So you might think!" Vine said. "But it turns out that it doesn't just matter how many voters you put in a constituency or a district - it matters what kind of voters they are. How you draw the boundaries."
A familiar 1810s political cartoon appeared behind him, its Wikipedia watermark not quite cropped off. "As I said, the term was coined in 1812 when boundaries were drawn in Massachusetts under Governor Elbridge Gerry. They drew lines to put all the towns that supported one party or candidate in this district, even though they're far apart. Someone compared it to a salamander - a gerrymander!"
"Never mind that Gerry himself was against the practice, apparently. Poor chap, having his name applied to it for all eternity."
"Well, he did sign the bill. And that's the point, Andrew. Here in America, they don't have a neutral Boundary Commission. Legislative bodies draw their own boundaries. You can imagine how that goes. One party gets a one-seat majority, they push through new boundaries so next time the exact same votes give them a sixty-seat one."
"Yes, that does seem appalling. But how precisely do they do it?"
"Well!" Vine said enthusiastically, calling up more graphics. Twelve blue dots sat at the centre of a rectangle of twelve red dots. "Let's say this is a blue-voting city in the middle of red-voting countryside. Say it warrants three seats under the rules. If we were like the Boundary Commission, we'd look at which areas belong together as natural communities-"
"-before ignoring that and deciding a road that joins two villages would make a good border, while a motorway that cuts across two should be in the middle of a district," Neil nodded in understanding. "But in theory, yes."
"Yes, without looking at how people vote. That pretty much never happens here. Or if we wanted to make an election as competitive as possible, we could do this," and lines appeared dividing up the city so each district had four blue and four red dots. "But usually parties want to do the opposite. Say the red party is in power and wants to exclude the blue party from power, er, we totally chose these colours at random. They can do what's called pack 'n' crack."
"Isn't that an illicit drug sold by Harry Enfield in blackface pretending to be Nelson Mandela?"
"...no. They can draw boundaries like this..." new lines shifted, "to make one district that's all blue in the middle, and then get two red districts by ensuring the other blue voters are in the minority. It doesn't matter that the middle district is 100% blue, it gets the same representation to if it was 51% blue. So they ensure the blue party gets fewer MPs or representatives for the same votes."
"I see, that's very sinister. What about the opposite?"
"Well, if the blue party's in charge, they would draw districts like these..." more lines, "so long trailing tails out of the middle city, ensuring there's always more blue than red voters in each, and pack the other red voters into a big rural district."
"Very well. I'm surprised this practice hasn't got banned by Mr Obama's reforms."
"It probably will, eventually, but he's had to pick and choose his battles, of course. The interesting thing, though, as we were saying, is that this three-member PR system has broken the gerrymanders. Those packed blue districts are now electing three Liberal MCs," Vine continued, forgetting his example was meant to be theoretical, "while the cracked ones meant to deliver a narrow red majority are now split between multiple parties. Or vice-versa. Gerrymandering may actually come around and hurt those who implemented it."
"Well, that'd certainly be exciting to see. We must speak to some American politicians in a bit to hear them foam at the mouth, once the translators have arrived. But first, I think we have more results."
"No gerrymandering required in this place. West Virginia has gone more overwhelmingly for one party than any place we've seen outside of DC. The Nationals-"
"Wait, did you just say 'anyplace'? Have you gone native?"
"I can give it up any time I like...and anyway, we can do the top-up seats as well for West Virginia now. No prizes for guessing who they go to..."
"Eleven full seats for Mr Trump's Nationals from this former mining area. Quite a shocking display of populism, of the same pattern that is proceeding across Europe, and strangely seems to gain more support the more we report on it..."
"And conversely, down in Georgia's sixth district in the northern suburbs of Atlanta, the Nationals don't get any seats at all, with the Conservatives ahead of them for the one right-wing seat."
"New York's ninth district, in Brooklyn..."
"One of your all-blue districts from your example, Jeremy. But this one, like a lot of them, isn't electing three Liberals. One seat keeps going to the Progressives."
"Yes, something which I think the Liberals did not foresee."
"We were just talking about Louie-vee, or as a voice in my ear is telling me, Loovel, well, this district is centred on it. This was the only Kentucky district that still elected Democrats under the old system. Here, we've got a split between the Liberals and Progressives, and again it's the Conservatives that get the third seat."
"Perhaps Mr Bush's party is getting their second wind after all."
"And Tennessee's first district, in the Appalachian region. Historically very loyal to the Republicans, and here all three seats go to the right-wing parties - although, unlike similarly Appalachian West Virginia, they are at least split three ways."
"And another two blue one green district. Virginia's eleventh is another one in the 'NoVa' area we mentioned, with spillover from Washington DC."
"Interestingly, this district is considered the most wealthy in the nation, in part due to the number of rich lobbyists who live there. Conventional wisdom would suggest that this would correlate to a right-wing vote, and yet it's voting just the same as plenty of poor urban districts we've seen elsewhere."
"Remember that the Liberals, although we've counted them under the left, also include quite a number of business-focused former Democratic factions..."
"And this is a large rural district in the middle of Georgia. It does include some smaller cities, though. In fact, this is an example of one of the 'cracked' districts we were talking about, where a...er, blue minority was denied representation by the first-past-the-post system. But look how split it is now! And we can update the map, too."
"As we increasingly wrap up the east coast states, then, perhaps it's time to ask some of our American counterparts what they think to this remarkable election..."
"So they could never be manipulated?" Neil obligingly asked theatrically.
"So you might think!" Vine said. "But it turns out that it doesn't just matter how many voters you put in a constituency or a district - it matters what kind of voters they are. How you draw the boundaries."
A familiar 1810s political cartoon appeared behind him, its Wikipedia watermark not quite cropped off. "As I said, the term was coined in 1812 when boundaries were drawn in Massachusetts under Governor Elbridge Gerry. They drew lines to put all the towns that supported one party or candidate in this district, even though they're far apart. Someone compared it to a salamander - a gerrymander!"
"Never mind that Gerry himself was against the practice, apparently. Poor chap, having his name applied to it for all eternity."
"Well, he did sign the bill. And that's the point, Andrew. Here in America, they don't have a neutral Boundary Commission. Legislative bodies draw their own boundaries. You can imagine how that goes. One party gets a one-seat majority, they push through new boundaries so next time the exact same votes give them a sixty-seat one."
"Yes, that does seem appalling. But how precisely do they do it?"
"Well!" Vine said enthusiastically, calling up more graphics. Twelve blue dots sat at the centre of a rectangle of twelve red dots. "Let's say this is a blue-voting city in the middle of red-voting countryside. Say it warrants three seats under the rules. If we were like the Boundary Commission, we'd look at which areas belong together as natural communities-"
"-before ignoring that and deciding a road that joins two villages would make a good border, while a motorway that cuts across two should be in the middle of a district," Neil nodded in understanding. "But in theory, yes."
"Yes, without looking at how people vote. That pretty much never happens here. Or if we wanted to make an election as competitive as possible, we could do this," and lines appeared dividing up the city so each district had four blue and four red dots. "But usually parties want to do the opposite. Say the red party is in power and wants to exclude the blue party from power, er, we totally chose these colours at random. They can do what's called pack 'n' crack."
"Isn't that an illicit drug sold by Harry Enfield in blackface pretending to be Nelson Mandela?"
"...no. They can draw boundaries like this..." new lines shifted, "to make one district that's all blue in the middle, and then get two red districts by ensuring the other blue voters are in the minority. It doesn't matter that the middle district is 100% blue, it gets the same representation to if it was 51% blue. So they ensure the blue party gets fewer MPs or representatives for the same votes."
"I see, that's very sinister. What about the opposite?"
"Well, if the blue party's in charge, they would draw districts like these..." more lines, "so long trailing tails out of the middle city, ensuring there's always more blue than red voters in each, and pack the other red voters into a big rural district."
"Very well. I'm surprised this practice hasn't got banned by Mr Obama's reforms."
"It probably will, eventually, but he's had to pick and choose his battles, of course. The interesting thing, though, as we were saying, is that this three-member PR system has broken the gerrymanders. Those packed blue districts are now electing three Liberal MCs," Vine continued, forgetting his example was meant to be theoretical, "while the cracked ones meant to deliver a narrow red majority are now split between multiple parties. Or vice-versa. Gerrymandering may actually come around and hurt those who implemented it."
"Well, that'd certainly be exciting to see. We must speak to some American politicians in a bit to hear them foam at the mouth, once the translators have arrived. But first, I think we have more results."
Rich (BB code):
WV-03
Nat 133,939 61.2%
Prog 31,224 14.3%
Fus 24,824 11.3%
Lib 19,699 9%
All 9,204 4.2%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 218,890
MCs elected:
Nat
Nat
Nat"No gerrymandering required in this place. West Virginia has gone more overwhelmingly for one party than any place we've seen outside of DC. The Nationals-"
"Wait, did you just say 'anyplace'? Have you gone native?"
"I can give it up any time I like...and anyway, we can do the top-up seats as well for West Virginia now. No prizes for guessing who they go to..."
Rich (BB code):
West Virginia
Nat 401,325 56.3%
Prog 110,544 15.5%
Fus 88,046 12.3%
Lib 78,250 11%
All 34,886 4.9%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 713,051
MCs elected:
Nat
Nat"Eleven full seats for Mr Trump's Nationals from this former mining area. Quite a shocking display of populism, of the same pattern that is proceeding across Europe, and strangely seems to gain more support the more we report on it..."
Rich (BB code):
GA-06
Lib 93,415 28.2%
Con 87,473 26.4%
Prog 61,661 18.6%
Nat 44,917 13.6%
Cst 27,633 8.3%
All 16,147 4.9%
Fus 0 0%
Total 331,246
MCs elected:
Lib
Con
Prog"And conversely, down in Georgia's sixth district in the northern suburbs of Atlanta, the Nationals don't get any seats at all, with the Conservatives ahead of them for the one right-wing seat."
Rich (BB code):
NY-09
Lib 134,538 53%
Prog 77,274 30.4%
Nat 21,441 8.4%
Fus 15,159 6%
All 5,377 2.1%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 253,789
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib"New York's ninth district, in Brooklyn..."
"One of your all-blue districts from your example, Jeremy. But this one, like a lot of them, isn't electing three Liberals. One seat keeps going to the Progressives."
"Yes, something which I think the Liberals did not foresee."
Rich (BB code):
KY-03
Lib 109,074 32.1%
Prog 77,476 22.8%
Con 55,833 16.4%
Nat 40,986 12.1%
Cst 38,895 11.4%
All 17,780 5.2%
Fus 0 0%
Total 340,043
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Con"We were just talking about Louie-vee, or as a voice in my ear is telling me, Loovel, well, this district is centred on it. This was the only Kentucky district that still elected Democrats under the old system. Here, we've got a split between the Liberals and Progressives, and again it's the Conservatives that get the third seat."
"Perhaps Mr Bush's party is getting their second wind after all."
Rich (BB code):
TN-01
Nat 88,349 33.3%
Con 67,249 25.3%
Cst 48,070 18.1%
Lib 27,372 10.3%
Prog 24,868 9.4%
All 9,585 3.6%
Fus 0 0%
Total 265,493
MCs elected:
Nat
Con
Cst"And Tennessee's first district, in the Appalachian region. Historically very loyal to the Republicans, and here all three seats go to the right-wing parties - although, unlike similarly Appalachian West Virginia, they are at least split three ways."
Rich (BB code):
VA-11
Lib 151,565 42.4%
Prog 87,417 24.5%
Con 55,629 15.6%
Nat 28,007 7.8%
All 19,850 5.6%
Cst 14,586 4.1%
Fus 0 0%
Total 357,054
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib"And another two blue one green district. Virginia's eleventh is another one in the 'NoVa' area we mentioned, with spillover from Washington DC."
"Interestingly, this district is considered the most wealthy in the nation, in part due to the number of rich lobbyists who live there. Conventional wisdom would suggest that this would correlate to a right-wing vote, and yet it's voting just the same as plenty of poor urban districts we've seen elsewhere."
"Remember that the Liberals, although we've counted them under the left, also include quite a number of business-focused former Democratic factions..."
Rich (BB code):
GA-08
Nat 75,512 28.4%
Lib 69,793 26.3%
Con 52,380 19.7%
Cst 40,301 15.2%
Prog 21,568 8.1%
All 5,961 2.2%
Fus 0 0%
Total 265,514
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Con"And this is a large rural district in the middle of Georgia. It does include some smaller cities, though. In fact, this is an example of one of the 'cracked' districts we were talking about, where a...er, blue minority was denied representation by the first-past-the-post system. But look how split it is now! And we can update the map, too."
"As we increasingly wrap up the east coast states, then, perhaps it's time to ask some of our American counterparts what they think to this remarkable election..."
- Location
- Sheffield
- Pronouns
- she/her
*chef's kiss*
- Location
- Derbyshire
Yeah that's just amazingly on point.
Dumb Q: how did you wind up with three libs and no prog for DC? Even in 2016 DC was much less heavily black than it was for most of the postwar period (still majority-minority, but a bit more split between black/latino/Asian/other) and enough young progressives that I'd have expected a bit more of a progressive voteshare.
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
I'm pretty sure the results are ripped from the 2016 primaries, which went overwhelmingly for Clinton.
A lot of the DC progressives aren't in the district itself but in its urban periphery I think?
Eh, sort of, but there's a lot of progressives in the District proper especially I want to say Ward 2(whoever lives there), Ward 1, and parts of 5 and 4. 6 I think is a little more on the conservative side but has some chunks of good progressive base (unless I'm just going off my feelings about the Wharf) and 7/8 are I assume reliable old-line dem strongholds.
Yeah that's generally an issue with drawing data from primaries.
Though you might get the same effect here with people expecting the progressives not to be competitive in liberal strongholds.
I don't want to Threadwreck with DMV politics but yea, I think I can see this. And honestly I could see everyone being a bit surprised by MD and DC flipping, just because the backbone of the MD dem party is what, Baltimore/95 corridor/DC suburb middle class civil servants and professionals and BAME?
EDIT: basically "libs overpoerform in MD and progs overperform in DC
Important update
RIP Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II. Out of respect for the mourning period I will not be posting updates to this or any of my writing projects until it is concluded.
God Save King Charles III.
RIP Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II. Out of respect for the mourning period I will not be posting updates to this or any of my writing projects until it is concluded.
God Save King Charles III.