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AMERICA DIVIDES: The Multi-Party US Election of 2016

18
"And...are you feeling alright there?"

"Sorry, I just felt a disturbance in the Force, as though millions of voices cried out and were silenced. It's as though some major, relevant world event happened and the author cannot think of a tasteful way to address it in-universe."

"Yes, but enough about your lunatic stalker from Youtube. What's the next results?"

Rich (BB code):
	NJ-07		
	Nat          	132,735   	35.7%
	Lib          	114,917   	30.9%
	Prog          	65,613    	17.7%
	Fus          	43,651    	11.7%
	All          	14,677    	3.9%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	371,592
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Nat

"Well, er, similar to other results we've seen from New Jersey, there's a rather surprising lead for the Nationals, given past experience before the new party system. This is a more rural part of the north of the state, but even so..."

Rich (BB code):
	FL-14		
	Lib          	127,568   	38.6%
	Prog          	61,302    	18.6%
	Nat          	54,749    	16.6%
	Con          	50,643    	15.3%
	Cst          	23,405    	7.1%
	All          	12,766    	3.9%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	330,433
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib
			Prog

"Quite a contrast to Florida's fourteenth district, which is dominated by the left. This one is centred on Tampa..."

"Other sanitary products are av - sorry, that one just slipped out."

Rich (BB code):
	NC-13		
	Lib          	89,687    	24.6%
	Nat          	82,522    	22.7%
	Cst          	71,454    	19.6%
	Prog          	70,317    	19.3%
	Con          	40,193    	11%
	All          	9,677     	2.7%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	363,851
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Nat
			Cst

"We are close to filling out the map of the Carolinas. This is quite mixed district in the western part of North Carolina, around the town of Salisbury."

"Oh, they've got a lovely cathedral."

"Not sure if this one has, Andrew. Anyway, the Progressives came very close to taking the third seat, but were pipped to the post by the Constitution Party by a margin of just over a thousand votes. It shows you that, even in a voting system like this one, every vote really does still count."

Rich (BB code):
	TN-03		
	Con          	72,861    	26.4%
	Nat          	70,341    	25.4%
	Lib          	52,809    	19.1%
	Cst          	37,730    	13.6%
	Prog          	30,714    	11.1%
	All          	12,001    	4.3%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	276,457
			
	MCs elected:		
			Con
			Nat
			Lib

"From North Carolina to a district in Tennessee that borders it...tenuous link. Another rare poll-topping for the Conservatives, who seem to be making something of a fightback in the inland Upper South region."

"Oh, that sounds very authoritative terminology, tell me more."

"Er..."

Rich (BB code):
	NY-09		
	Lib          	134,538   	53%
	Prog          	77,274    	30.4%
	Nat          	21,441    	8.4%
	Fus          	15,159    	6%
	All          	5,377     	2.1%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con           	0         	0%
			
		Total	253,789
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Lib

"...back to New York, to Brooklyn, and another left-wing district. It looks as though Bernie Sanders coming from the area originally only goes so far, as the Liberals are still firmly on top."

"Speaking of Tennessee-"

Rich (BB code):
	TN-07		
	Nat          	76,001    	26.1%
	Con          	72,090    	24.7%
	Lib          	54,542    	18.7%
	Cst          	48,757    	16.7%
	Prog          	27,771    	9.5%
	All          	12,400    	4.3%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	291,561
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Con
			Lib

"...here's another result? Here it's the Nationals who have edged it over the Conservatives, more in the western part of the state in an area with a lot of military presence...and I can update my map."

Kentucky and Tennessee 8results.png

"No, I meant something else. We've had a few tweets, and probably a million messages by other methods which we have ignored, asking if we're going to be speaking to any local Americans about the elections. Well, things did get delayed by how many results we had unexpectedly early, and Katty's explanations about the parties. But, of course, we are going to speak to some American experts and voters. And we'll start with two people who already happened to be in the building, Rich Hall and Reginald D Hunter!"

The large screen cut away to Emily Maitlis speaking to the two panel show regulars. "Now, you're two of the most regular American faces on British TV. What do you make of all this?"

"You do know we don't actually live here anymore?" Hunter intoned sonorously.

"I spend some time on a ranch in Montana every so often, actually, writin' s - stuff," Hall corrected him. "But seein' as my neighbours live three miles away, don't ask me how they plan to vote."

"Um..." Maitlis was briefly flummoxed. "But what do you think of the changes President Obama has made to the voting system?"

"Listen, as long as we don't have no more hangin' chads an' recounts, that's got to be a step up," Hall replied.

"Less material though," Hunter observed. "It's like I said to them (bleeps) at the bleep, this bleep gonna keep doin' the same bleep stories for years if I can still have that free healthcare."

"Um...yes," Maitlis said. "Reginald, why does your lapel mike keep emitting regular loud sound effect bleeps?"

"It's easier for the live broadcasts," Hall explained, "just in case he slips and says n-"

The broadcast was mercifully interrupted by a blast of static. When it cleared, a vaguely-familiar looking, bespectacled man in a suit was there. "Attention BBC!" he squawked. "Do not adjust your sets! I am taking control as the only British person allowed to commentate on America! Trump has a stupid name! It is 2015! I am cool and edgy and say bad things about the Queen! Pay attention to me me me me me-" The screen cut off.

"Well I'm sorry to the viewers at home there, we appear to have been interrupted by ah...who was that strange sad man?"

"Failed panel show contestant I think, probably jealous of Rich and Reginald getting screentime. Well, let's move on."

Rich (BB code):
	NY-26		
	Lib          	91,821    	30.2%
	Prog          	83,515    	27.4%
	Nat          	73,794    	24.2%
	Fus          	41,764    	13.7%
	All          	13,546    	4.4%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	304,440
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Nat

"Another New York seat, from the upstate, this time, and this one actually takes in Niagara Falls, interestingly - or at least the American side of it. Unlike some parts of the upstate, the left is still in the ascendance here."

Rich (BB code):
	NJ-01		
	Lib          	122,315   	37.2%
	Nat          	91,418    	27.8%
	Prog          	77,071    	23.4%
	Fus          	27,462    	8.3%
	All          	10,922    	3.3%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	329,188
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Nat
			Prog

"This New Jersey district is urban and straight across the river from Philadelphia in Pennsylvania, part of the same conurbation really, so it's striking that the results are quite different - the Nationals really do seem to have more support in New Jersey. Even though they've also scored some strong votes in Pennsylvania, in Philadelphia itself they're way behind."

Rich (BB code):
	PA-15		
	Nat          	99,905    	29.8%
	Lib          	75,962    	22.7%
	Fus          	73,692    	22%
	Prog          	72,118    	21.5%
	All          	13,192    	3.9%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	334,869
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Fus

"And speaking of Pennsylvania...perhaps the difference is just that the Fusionists have done a better job of splitting the right-wing vote here, as they've obtained another seat. And another map update..."

Pennsylvania 9results.png
 
That probably wasn't the best-written update, but it's taking me a while to get back into the swing of this, and I do want to make progress before the midterm elections come around and Wiki changes the default district maps on its articles to the new ones, making it harder to look them up (amazingly, they're still on the 2012-2020 ones by default...)
 
19 inc Virginias complete
Rich (BB code):
	NJ-06		
	Nat          	101,037   	34.9%
	Lib          	98,184    	33.9%
	Prog          	64,673    	22.3%
	Fus          	16,642    	5.7%
	All          	9,111     	3.1%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	289,648
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Prog

"That's another result from New Jersey with the Nationals topping the polls, albeit not by a big margin, and again it's in a district that was considered fairly secure Democratic territory under the old system. Just what is going on?"

"Thank you for that obvious segue dialogue, Jeremy. We can now go to Matt Frei in New Jersey. Matt?"

The familiar face of Matt Frei, bags under his eyes, appeared on the screen. Oddly, the edges of the screen seemed to show a moonlit ocean, while the middle part was a slightly lighter, twilit city scene that occasionally flickered green. "Yes, Andrew, we can report here from the shores of ah...Jersey that there is a political upheaval taking place. This is a place that has long been known for opaque, feudal government and a suspicion of partisan politics, yet now a revolution is sweeping through the Bai - the state."

Frei coughed uncomfortably. "We talked to some famous sons of Jersey to get their views. Firstly, it's one of the world's biggest, haha, actors, it's Danny DeVito. Mr DeVito, what do you make of all this?"

Danny DeVito strangely resembled a much taller man on his knees wearing a Danny DeVito mask. "In this new voting system, Matt, there's no winning, only degrees of losing. Let me tell you, I support Bernie Sanders and the Progressives, it says here, and totally not just because I look a bit like him. Don't ask who I supported in the Irish presidential election, is all I'm saying. But this is all coming way too fast. Speed isn't everything--"

There was a twang of elastic snapping and the mask briefly fell away to reveal a face that looked more like Tom Selleck's, if anything, but the camera was hastily jerked aside to shift him off-camera. This did come with the unusual side effect that now there was an extra moon in the sky around the edge of the screen to go with the one near the centre.

"Thank you Mr DeVito," Frei said loudly. "And what about your fellow Hollywood actor, Bruce Willis? Although technically he was born in West Germany."

The camera jerked again to reveal another man behind a very static image of Bruce Willis' face, which also appeared to date from 1988 and still came with hair. "Ja! Actually, it's pronounced 'die Hard', you know. Let me tell you, Matt, I'm for small government, this new voting system gives us hundreds and hundreds of MCs, that's way too many, but it would make a nice photograph. Um, yipey kee yay, mother...what does this say?"

"Thank you Mr Willis...and finally, because we only care about talking to actors, it's James Gandolfini, the man behind Tony Soprano--"

"I think you mean what's clearly a woman behind that upside-down mask of James Gandolfini," Andrew Neil interrupted.

"Oh come on Andrew, don't go all JK Rowling on me," Frei said, smiling nervously, as the mask slipped down.

"Wait - that's singer-songwriter Nerina Pallot!"

"At least I can sing soprano, that's close enough, right?" Pallot asked defensively. The camera swung aside with another green flicker, but this only served to reveal the other two interviewees sans masks.

"Graeme Le Saux? Nigel Mansell?" Jeremy Vine asked in confusion.

Neil's eyes narrowed. "Matt, did you misread the memo and go to old Jersey, then panic and decide to fake being in New Jersey with a green-screen and some co-opted locals?"

Frei's face twisted into distorted rage. "And I would have gotten away with it too, if it wasn't for you meddling kids!"

The screen turned to static.

Rich (BB code):
	FL-12		
	Nat          	109,810   	28.9%
	Lib          	89,401    	23.5%
	Con          	66,791    	17.6%
	Prog          	58,358    	15.3%
	Cst          	41,886    	11%
	All          	14,111    	3.7%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	380,357
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Con

"Funny old world, isn't it...anyway, another seat for the Conservatives, just about, in another part of Florida nobody's heard of."

Rich (BB code):
	GA-03		
	Nat          	78,897    	25.3%
	Lib          	73,721    	23.6%
	Con          	70,826    	22.7%
	Cst          	50,900    	16.3%
	Prog          	28,434    	9.1%
	All          	9,085     	2.9%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	311,865
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Con

"And a pretty much identical result, actually, in this Georgia district south-west of Atlanta. So not even a Florida home state effect. It's almost as if Marco Rubio's even more irrelevant than we already thought."

"Alright, alright...anyway, I'm sure Governor Saakashvili will receive this with er...good or bad news...er, just which is he a member of, anyway?"

"I'm not sure even he knows."

Rich (BB code):
	VA-09		
	Nat          	110,873   	35%
	Con          	62,573    	19.8%
	Lib          	45,077    	14.2%
	Cst          	44,391    	14%
	Prog          	41,386    	13.1%
	All          	12,440    	3.9%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	316,740
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Con
			Nat

"A very right-wing district in the west of Virginia - as opposed to West Virginia - but it neighbours that state, and it's in the Appalachian mountains. Again a correlation with support for the Nationals.

"Perhaps driven by Mr Trump's protectionist policies that he claims to have."

"Er, well, that's the final result in Virginia, which means we can also give the top-up statewide seats for the state, which as a reminder are winner-take all..."

Rich (BB code):
	Virginia at-large		
	Lib          	1,278,478 	32.4%
	Con          	753,749   	19.1%
	Prog          	702,995   	17.8%
	Nat          	687,649   	17.4%
	Cst          	328,045   	8.3%
	All          	199,966   	5.1%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	3,950,882
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib

"And a pretty decisive win for the Liberals here, reflecting that strong vote we saw in the 'NoVa' northern suburbs of DC, but also other parts of the east of the state."

Virginias.png

"As you can see in our final map, though, the western part does bleed into the dominating support for the Nationals in West Virginia."

"Take me home, country roads..."

"Yes yes, please stop or the contact ID demons will kill us."

"Oh, I always thought they were on our side."

Rich (BB code):
	KY-04		
	Con          	78,906    	23.4%
	Cst          	73,671    	21.9%
	Nat          	67,172    	19.9%
	Lib          	49,455    	14.7%
	Prog          	49,208    	14.6%
	All          	18,736    	5.6%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	337,149
			
	MCs elected:		
			Con
			Cst
			Nat

"And another very right-wing district crossing into the Appalachians, this one in Kentucky, just over the river from Cincinnati in Ohio. All three seats going to the right-wing parties, and again there's some more success for the Conservatives, as we've seen in other parts of the state."

Rich (BB code):
	NJ-04		
	Nat          	167,508   	47%
	Lib          	87,320    	24.5%
	Prog          	58,871    	16.5%
	Fus          	31,351    	8.8%
	All          	11,533    	3.2%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	356,583
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Nat

"That's the last New Jersey district, from the middle part of the state, and again a whopping vote for the Nationals."

"I wish we could find out why that was, and if SOMEONE could follow basic instructions and not fly to Newfoundland when he sees a cheap flight to Sydney, we might. Oh well. What about the statewide seats?"

Rich (BB code):
	New Jersey at-large		
	Lib          	1,363,138 	35.2%
	Nat          	1,293,437 	33.4%
	Prog          	785,140   	20.3%
	Fus          	308,496   	8%
	All          	123,835   	3.2%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	3,874,046
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib

"Well, despite everything we've said about the Nationals, the Liberals came out on top and get the statewide seats - but only just. Questions are going to be asked about this, indeed. If this pattern is repeated nationwide, it could be a significant bonus for the blues."

"Yes. In fact, it makes one wonder what the result would look like if the vote was purely first-past-the-post and we were only counting the first seat in each district."

"What a wonderful rhetorical question, Andrew. Well, to answer it, we can now go over to overrated TV historian and silver medallist in the arts nepotism stakes - just lost out to Jack Whitehall in the pole vault - Dan Snow..."

"It's just a bit of fun."
 
20 inc Carolinas & New York complete
The screen shifted to display the aforementioned legacy TV personality and alleged sex symbol to the shirt-lifting community, Dan Snow. In the background, albeit probably on a greenscreen slightly more sophisticated than Matt Frei's, was what looked like a large hill in Wiltshire with the remains of some ruins on top. "Yes thank you Andrew. Well, I have been called in to honour my dad Peter by playing with the results under different voting systems and like. It's just a bit of fun."

"And also because Jeremy needed to go to the toilet. Well, ah, Dan, what would the results we've had look like if they were pure first-past-the-post, i.e., if there was only one seat in each district still?"

"Well, Andrew, you can see here that many of the districts we've seen would be 'won'," Snow made air quotes, "with only twenty-five or so percent of the vote, which I imagine would be a serious concern to many."

"Actually that happens in council elections at home all the time and nobody notices, but go on."

"Right...but if we ignore that and just award one seat per district to the top party..." The US map behind Snow shifted until it was just a sea of solid colours for each district. Of course, the results were only shown for the eastern seaboard and a little inland, with a few holes of black where results had not yet come in, and then gradually petered out going westward as only a few districts in the interior states had reported.

"Currently just over a third of districts have reported, about thirty-seven percent I think. Now, we'll give each district one seat for the top party...and we'll also give one statewide seat for the top party per state..." Snow's voice dropped to a mutter, "because I can't figure out how to stop the spreadsheet counting those..."

"You know nothing, Dan Snow."

"Curse you and your topical references, Andrew Neil. Very well, if we count those seats, we'd get..." the numbers appeared behind Snow. "One hundred and seventy-two seats would be declared - in reality, you understand, five hundred and four have declared because there's more than one per district..."

"Yes yes, get on with it."

"Right...so the Liberals would have eighty-six seats, the Nationals would have fifty-eight, the Progressives would have seventeen, then nine for the Conservatives, one for the Constitution Party and another for the Con-Con Fusionists, and none for the Alliance."

"So the Liberals alone would have a majority?"

"Not quite, as they'd have exactly half the seats, but pretty close to. Off the back of just uh...thirty percent of the vote. About twenty-one million votes for them cast so far, out of seventy million total. Uh, again, if you count the completed states' total votes twice because of the extra seats..."

"Not very proportional then!"

"No indeed. Well, many would say even the real system isn't that proportional due to only having three seats per district, but it does ensure at least a good number of those wasted votes...aren't."

"Very well. Very interesting...Dan. But where are you, anyway?"

"Me?" Snow jerked a thumb over his shoulder. "I'm at Old Sarum, an uninhabited hill that formerly had two MPs, also known by its Welsh name of Caer Caradog. It was either that or Stonehenge, and Stonehenge is overrated." Without warning, he disappeared.

"Dammit, he's right," Neil muttered to himself. "Now I will have to revise my opinion of him. I hate doing that. Oh well."


Rich (BB code):
	PA-05		
	Nat          	117,120   	37.3%
	Fus          	78,617    	25%
	Prog          	54,904    	17.5%
	Lib          	50,234    	16%
	All          	13,269    	4.2%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	314,144
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Fus
			Nat

"Right, well, anyway, Pennsylvania looks increasingly complete now, and another win for the Fusionists in this right-wing district - of course, under Dan Snow's voting system they'd still only have one, as they've only topped the polls in a single district thus far. This one's a large and rural area that stretches from the Appalachians to Lake Erie."

Rich (BB code):
	NC-12		
	Lib          	148,894   	41.8%
	Prog          	94,841    	26.6%
	Con          	37,430    	10.5%
	Nat          	32,978    	9.3%
	Cst          	30,753    	8.6%
	All          	11,425    	3.2%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	356,321
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Lib

"North Carolina's final district, on the other hand, is decidedly a left-wing one, taking in most of the city of Charlotte - named after George III's wife, they apparently forgot to change it - with its BAME majority."

"And with that, we can give the final statewide top-up seats for North Carolina as well..."

Rich (BB code):
	North Carolina at-large		
	Lib          	1,255,389 	26.8%
	Nat          	971,088   	20.7%
	Prog          	933,922   	19.9%
	Cst          	876,604   	18.7%
	Con          	514,960   	11%
	All          	130,135   	2.8%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	4,682,098
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib

"With only about a quarter of the vote, indeed, as Dan Snow said, the Liberals secure the statewide seats."

"For the last few presidential elections, North Carolina was a swing seat. Here, the greater divisions on the right compared to the left seem to have helped the latter gain ascendance. And the map of the Carolinas is now complete."

Carolinas.png

"Yes, both North and South Carolina have the Liberals in first place overall, despite the fact that both these states voted for Mitt Romney in the final US presidential election. I suspect that won't be the last surprise we see tonight."

Rich (BB code):
	IN-04		
	Nat          	100,995   	33.4%
	Fus          	93,413    	30.9%
	Prog          	53,069    	17.6%
	Lib          	38,200    	12.6%
	All          	16,704    	5.5%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	302,381
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Fus
			Prog

"Indiana is also usually regarded as a right-wing state, and more than sixty percent of the vote goes to the right here, but the Progressives just narrowly grab the third seat from the Nationals."

"Yes - what's interesting is that Indiana did vote for President Obama in 2008, which was a surprise at the time, and has since trended away from Democrats except in urban areas. But while the Liberals have inherited that vote, the Progressives seem to have gained support in the more rural areas. I wonder if that's a pattern we'll see repeated."

Rich (BB code):
	PA-08		
	Nat          	105,632   	27.3%
	Lib          	103,845   	26.8%
	Prog          	81,840    	21.1%
	Fus          	80,975    	20.9%
	All          	14,733    	3.8%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	387,025
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Prog

"We'll soon start seeing some new states' results as the polls close, but for now we continue with Pennsylvania...now this was formerly a Republican-held seat under the old system, but here, though the Nationals are in the lead, two out of the three seats go to the left parties."

"Which is because the Progressives narrowly beat the Fusionists. As we were saying, some people will bemoan this system as insufficiently proportional, but others would argue that it retains some of the thrill and high stakes of a first-past-the-post contest - it's just that in this case, the race is between third and fourth place."

Rich (BB code):
	FL-26		
	Lib          	113,971   	39.4%
	Con          	75,388    	26.1%
	Prog          	50,281    	17.4%
	Nat          	30,782    	10.6%
	Cst          	11,035    	3.8%
	All          	7,768     	2.7%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	289,225
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Con
			Lib

"This is a district right down at the southern tip of Florida, with the Keys trickling away from the tip of th...you know what, let's move on. It was pretty much a dead heat between Democrats and Republicans before, but here the Liberals get two of the seats and the Conservatives only one."

Rich (BB code):
	NY-15		
	Lib          	128,459   	67.1%
	Prog          	50,995    	26.6%
	Nat          	5,590     	2.9%
	Fus          	3,781     	2%
	All          	2,558     	1.3%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	191,383
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib
			Prog

"And speaking of finishing states, that's the last New York declaration. This one is in the north of the city, taking in part of the Bronx and Westchester County or whatever Marvel have retconned it to be called this week, and was a very heavily Democratic district under the old system. The Liberals weren't far off getting all three seats, but the Progressives nab the third - and the right-wing parties are nowhere in contention, barely ahead of the Alliance."

"With all the New York votes in, the statewide top-ups..."

Rich (BB code):
	New York at-large		
	Lib          	2,635,284 	34.4%
	Prog          	1,920,858 	25.1%
	Nat          	1,722,983 	22.5%
	Fus          	1,096,574 	14.3%
	All          	284,537   	3.7%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con         	0         	0%
			
		Total	7,660,236
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib

"Well. We've heard about the Nationals having success, but ultimately they come third behind the Liberals and Progressives in the popular vote of this state. New York City's votes mean a lot, but the Liberals also obtained quite a bit of support from elsewhere. As you can see on the final map..."

New York.png

"There you have it. One of America's largest states--"

"--it's actually only third largest now according to the latest estimate--"

"--and though there's a lot of orange on the map, more than on the one of the Carolinas in fact, as we said it's the Liberal vote from those small New York City districts that has carried the day. But as more polls close and states report, we remind you that every vote will count. This is no longer a binary contest like a presidential election, where many voters in states like California and Hawaii simply chose not to vote as the result was already decided by the east. In this contest, we will not know who truly governs America until the final seat results are in..."
 
The progressive weren't far off getting one seat per district in NY, they only missed 2 (both right wing suburbs of NYC). Fascinating to see them get votes in rural parts of the state where the liberals can't.

Under the old system, getting 30% in rural areas is worthless, while here it provides a solid base. Every seat is worth contesting.
 
21 inc MD, NJ, DE, DC completed map
"Florida's 21st district is reporting, only two more to go after that in this key swing state - well, it was a swing state under the old system..."

Rich (BB code):
    FL-21       
    Lib              149,139       42.4%
    Nat              76,100        21.6%
    Prog              57,100        16.2%
    Con              43,708        12.4%
    Cst              17,681        5%
    All              7,932         2.3%
    Fus              0             0%
           
        Total    351,661
           
    MCs elected:       
            Lib
            Nat
            Lib

"This district takes in a number of urbanised beach resorts north of Miami. Home to a number of billionaires, but we don't see the support for the Conservatives we might therefore expect - two seats to the Liberals and one to the Nationals."

"The Nationals...perhaps those billionaires support one of their own?"

Rich (BB code):
    KY-05       
    Nat              105,836       38%
    Cst              60,719        21.8%
    Con              55,003        19.8%
    Prog              29,085        10.4%
    Lib              19,543        7%
    All              8,197         2.9%
    Fus              0             0%
           
        Total    278,383
           
    MCs elected:       
            Nat
            Cst
            Con

"Better news for the Conservatives, kind of, in Kentucky's fifth district, another very right-wing area where all three seats go to the right-wing parties. This is the Appalachian region again, but clearly not as all-in for the Nationals as some other parts of the region we've seen - though they're still well in front and almost took two seats."

"Interestingly, statistically this is the second most impoverished district in the United States, but is also the one with the highest percentage of voters identifying as, ah, white," despite her long tenure covering the United States, Katty Kay still had the typical British middle-class wincing stumble over that word when used in a racial sense. "All that poverty and neither left-wing party is remotely in contention. This would be like if, let's say Knowsley in the UK was voting for the Conservatives and the English Democrats and Labour was nowhere to be seen, when of course it's the opposite. That's a profound illustration in how politics in the United States is frequently driven much more by racial blocs than economic inequality."

"Yes, even under Mr Obama's reforms. We should say that we are not picking on the people of Knowsley, lest we be sent to the jam butty mines when the revolution comes. Let's move on."

Rich (BB code):
    GA-05       
    Lib              185,868       60.8%
    Prog              73,937        24.2%
    Con              23,428        7.7%
    All              9,564         3.1%
    Nat              8,547         2.8%
    Cst              4,409         1.4%
    Fus              0             0%
           
        Total    305,754
           
    MCs elected:       
            Lib
            Lib
            Prog

"Speaking of race and American politics, Georgia's fifth district, more Atlanta suburbs, is majority BAME and the Liberals continue to receive considerable support from those demographics - although the Progressives still won enough support to take the third seat."

"And this time it's the right-wing parties who are all way out of contention."

"Yes. One of the elected Liberals was the pre-existing Democratic incumbent, John Lewis--"

"And I will cut you off there before you make some sort of unoriginal joking reference to Christmas adverts, being never knowingly undersold, or the like."

"...you're no fun."

Rich (BB code):
    MD-07       
    Lib              164,508       51.2%
    Prog              78,925        24.6%
    Fus              34,146        10.6%
    Nat              30,780        9.6%
    All              12,932        4%
    Cst              0             0%
    Con              0             0%
           
        Total    321,292
           
    MCs elected:       
            Lib
            Lib
            Prog

"A very similar result there from Maryland's seventh district, taking in part of Baltimore and, um, random chunks elsewhere. With that result, all Maryland's votes are in and we can allocate the statewide seats, which shouldn't be a surprise in this case..."

Rich (BB code):
    Maryland at-large       
    Lib              1,091,467     39.9%
    Prog              586,461       21.4%
    Nat              528,140       19.3%
    Fus              415,029       15.2%
    All              115,550       4.2%
    Cst              0             0%
    Con              0             0%
           
        Total    2,736,647
           
    MCs elected:       
            Lib
            Lib

"Yes, the Liberals take the top-up seats with almost double the votes of their nearest competitors, the Progressives. But that's not all!"

"Alright, you don't have to sound like you're on QVC."

"No, I mean that's all the votes from that, well, that admittedly rather arbitrary kludge of 'states in between other states' sectional maps I showed you before. We can now show that map completed, including all the statewide seats."

MDNJDEDC.png

"Look at those results. Our map is a sea of blue and orange. Not blue and red, as many commentators predicted, with former Republicans crossing over to the Conservatives as their natural successor - as a much bigger chunk of Democrats have crossed over to the Liberals. In fact, in all these states the Conservatives did not run alone, but ran fusion candidates with the Constitution Party - yet they are far behind Donald Trump's National Party."

"Statewide, all three states plus DC saw the Liberals top the polls and obtain their top-up seats. Again, though, look at that pie chart for New Jersey. The Nationals were breathing down the Liberals' necks, in what was usually regarded as a safe blue state - by which I mean Democratic, of course - under the old system. Delaware too, for that matter."

"An unpleasant wake-up call for Hillary Clinton and the other Liberal leadership, which has been reflected in our American media counterparts now suggesting they were complacent. Do we have someone we can go to yet?"

"A voice in my ear is telling me that the extraction is successful, Andrew, and we will shortly be able to speak to Mr Bucket."

"What, you mean that plastic toy from the 80s that spits balls at you?"

"No, Andrew, that would be silly. I mean we've kidnapped the editor of the New York Times."

"Oh, I see. Well, that's something to look forward to. In the meantime..."
 
22 inc Georgia map completed
Rich (BB code):
	IN-09		
	Nat          	111,984   	34.5%
	Fus          	86,133    	26.5%
	Prog          	61,884    	19.1%
	Lib          	48,974    	15.1%
	All          	15,534    	4.8%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	324,509
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Fus
			Prog

"Another result from Indiana - the south-central part of the state, between Indianapolis and the suburbs of Louisville on the Kentucky side of the border. Another very right-wing area, but with the minority left-wing vote captured by the Progressives ahead of the Liberals here."

"The Alliance vote may be slightly higher in Indiana, due to an incident a few years ago where a Libertarian captured some votes from a discredited Republican - but it's still nowhere near winning any seats."

Rich (BB code):
	PA-01		
	Lib          	151,449   	48%
	Prog          	99,475    	31.5%
	Nat          	31,924    	10.1%
	Fus          	25,597    	8.1%
	All          	7,160     	2.3%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	315,605
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Lib

"Pennsylvania's first district has finally reported - not that the numbers signify anything in terms of declaration order, of course."

"This one takes in much of the city of Philadelphia, along the banks of the Delaware River. Like most urban districts we've seen, the Liberals are in the lead, but there's also a strong Progressive vote here. None of the right-wing parties are in contention."

"Perhaps the Progressive vote is high enough that next election, they might try campaigning particularly hard here to try to flip the leading party, in an experimental way, I mean, you know, like--"

"Yes yes, or something about spreadable cheese. Let's move on."

Rich (BB code):
	TN-08		
	Nat          	72,878    	24.6%
	Lib          	67,839    	22.9%
	Con          	66,165    	22.3%
	Cst          	57,659    	19.4%
	Prog          	23,186    	7.8%
	All          	8,945     	3%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	296,672
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Con

"Like neighbouring Kentucky, Tennessee seems to be delivering a better performance for the Conservatives than seen elsewhere, although it's still a far cry from what many predicted."

"The top four parties are all very close here in the eighth district, with the Constitution Party quite narrowly missing out on a seat. This is the north-west corner of the parallelogram that is Tennessee, taking in some of the suburbs of Memphis, Tennessee, which is mostly in the ninth district - which should report soon. Otherwise, nowhere that anybody has heard of."

Rich (BB code):
	OH-05		
	Con          	108,769   	30.2%
	Nat          	67,481    	18.8%
	Prog          	62,407    	17.4%
	Lib          	62,003    	17.2%
	Cst          	38,402    	10.7%
	All          	20,561    	5.7%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	359,624
			
	MCs elected:		
			Con
			Nat
			Prog

"If there is one place where the Conservative Party is performing well tonight, though, it is Ohio - whether that's due to the personal vote of co-leader John Kasich, Governor and former Congressman for the state, or some other factor."

"It does neighbour Kentucky as well, but the personal vote doubtless matters. It is striking that Ohio, which historically was almost THE swing state, in this election is isolated, its political trends separate from most of the nation."

"Or so it seems thus far, anyway."

"Yes. Anyway, this district is in the north-west of the state - deja vu - and wraps around the city of Toledo, but is mostly smaller towns. Still more urban than rural overall, but what Americans call urban and rural may be different to what we would picture."

Rich (BB code):
	GA-10		
	Nat          	77,420    	24.6%
	Lib          	77,258    	24.5%
	Con          	63,607    	20.2%
	Cst          	52,002    	16.5%
	Prog          	35,433    	11.2%
	All          	9,353     	3%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	315,073
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Con

"A bit more good news for the Conservatives, as they pick up another seat in Georgia. That's the final Georgia declaration."

"The tenth district is the area between the cities of Atlanta and Augusta. Again, we would call it rural, though the US still classifies it as somewhat more urban than rural. Quite a right-wing area in some ways, but the Liberals are not many votes behind topping the polls, with the right-wing vote so split."

"We can also give the statewide seats..."

Rich (BB code):
	Georgia at-large		
	Lib          	1,340,313 	32.8%
	Nat          	821,649   	20.1%
	Con          	770,555   	18.8%
	Prog          	537,650   	13.1%
	Cst          	496,900   	12.1%
	All          	125,306   	3.1%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	4,092,373
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib

"Again. Another southern state, considering to be usually in the hands of the right-wing Republicans in recent years - though it has a much older Democratic tradition, and Jimmy Carter was from here - now with the Liberals well in the lead statewide."

"The legacy of a divided right and a less divided left?"

"In this case. And the map..."

Georgia.png

"Again, a sea of blue and orange, with just one red district where the Conservatives topped the polls. As we heard from Dan Snow, if this was a purely first-past-the-post election, the results would be rather different, and we would really only be talking about three parties - the Liberals, Nationals and Progressives - most of the time."

"It would also be even stranger if these results were fed into the old presidential electoral college system, when the statewide wins were all that counted."

"We'll go back to Dan Snow at some point for that - it's just a bit of fun - but in the meantime, here's what the fully declared statewide votes look like on the map..."

Top-up seats 1a.png

"Just the original Thirteen Colonies pretty much, the eastern seaboard, except Pennsylvania which still has a couple more seats to declare."

"On American election nights, we're used to seeing the northern and southern parts of that seaboard voting very differently. But here everything is blue, except for Progressive green in the New England states and of course that deep National orange in West Virginia."

"Yes. Although we've heard about the Liberals perhaps being complacent, they are clearly occupying the centre ground of politics for many voters. While this isn't purely an FPTP election, obtaining a plurality of support in so many different states puts them in a strong position to dominate America's strange new political spectrum."

"But still, less than half of America's seats have declared, so we would be best not to count our chickens before they've hatched."

Rich (BB code):
	PA-18		
	Nat          	126,135   	34%
	Fus          	88,967    	24%
	Lib          	80,950    	21.8%
	Prog          	61,755    	16.7%
	All          	12,691    	3.4%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	370,497
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Fus
			Lib

"Pennsylvania's eighteenth district. This takes in a large, sort-of-rural - you know what I mean - chunk of the south-west of the state, wrapping around the city of Pittsburgh."

"A very right-wing area again, with the Nationals well ahead and the Fusion Party winning a seat as well - but the Liberals take the third."

"Also includes places called Sturgeon and Meadowlands, can the intern come up with a joke about that, I'm too busy with these declarations."

Rich (BB code):
	FL-23		
	Lib          	144,317   	42.7%
	Prog          	64,763    	19.2%
	Nat          	53,913    	16%
	Con          	51,334    	15.2%
	Cst          	15,720    	4.7%
	All          	7,736     	2.3%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	337,782
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib
			Prog

"Like Pennsylvania, Florida is also approaching completion. This district is in the northern part of Miami, and the leading Liberal candidate is former chair of the Democratic National Committee, Debbie Wasserman Schulz."

"Yes, we may be able to speak to her later, once she is back from travelling with the Eleventh Doctor to campaign in this election only to find, hilariously, that she was actually speaking to voters in an alternate universe who can't vote in this one."

"Still better than her usual track record."

Rich (BB code):
	MI-07		
	Nat          	74,398    	21.9%
	Prog          	72,677    	21.4%
	Con          	64,218    	18.9%
	Lib          	58,890    	17.3%
	Cst          	51,039    	15%
	All          	19,136    	5.6%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	340,358
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Prog
			Con

"Hello, this is something new. Our first result from the state of Michigan. From the southeast of the state, near Detroit and also neighbouring the Ohio district we just saw near Toledo."

"A very divided result!"

"Yes, almost a five-way split between the parties, and even a relatively good Alliance vote, too. Under those circumstances, the top three parties get seats, and in this case it's the Nationals, Progressives and Conservatives."

"No Liberals. But maybe the Conservatives really are getting a second wind as we move into Midwest states like Michigan, not to mention the Upper South like Kentucky and Tennessee."

Rich (BB code):
	TN-09		
	Lib          	142,104   	63.9%
	Prog          	30,287    	13.6%
	Con          	18,437    	8.3%
	Nat          	13,734    	6.2%
	Cst          	11,798    	5.3%
	All          	5,993     	2.7%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	222,353
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib
			Lib

"We were just talking about Tennessee's ninth district, and here it is - the district containing the storied city of Memphis, Tennessee, as in 'let me get in touch with her in'."

"Alright, you're not on Fame Academy, Jeremy. Very strong support for the Liberals here."

"Yes, one of the relatively few cases of all three seats going to them - many predicted we'd see more of that in urban seats, but the Progressives have captured more seats than expected. Anyway, here's a map update."

Kentucky and Tennessee 12results.png

"Indeed, perhaps we were too swift to write off the Conservative Party...perhaps."
 
Seems like we're going to have a bit of a band of Conservative strength across the Mid-west and upper south.

Have you been doing heat maps going along?
 
Seems like we're going to have a bit of a band of Conservative strength across the Mid-west and upper south.

Have you been doing heat maps going along?
I've done some showing seats won by district, but I haven't make popular vote ones by party yet - will probably need a different colour scale. Won't reveal them till the end regardless I think.
 
Top-up seats 1a.png
This is exactly why I think a Lib-Prog coalition will hold a majority, though results like New Jersey could still make it close.
 
23 inc Florida complete map
"We can shortly go to an undisclosed location, but firstly, as the hours wear on, we continue to progress through America's multiple time zones. The polls therefore continue to close in sequence and we have more results from states we have not seen before..."

Rich (BB code):
	AL-03		
	Nat          	83,663    	29%
	Lib          	78,665    	27.2%
	Con          	64,689    	22.4%
	Cst          	40,125    	13.9%
	Prog          	14,636    	5.1%
	All          	6,998     	2.4%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	288,776
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Con

"The first of these is Alabama. Which is a real state and not just a punchline, apparently."

"Yes, in fact Naga Munchetty will be interviewing people in Birmingham shortly."

"Alabama is an example of a state that's been gerrymandered - don't explain gerrymandering again, Jeremy - to pack most of the old Democratic voters into one district, the seventh, while the other six were won by Republicans on pluralities. The Republicans could do this because they had enough voters to secure the state legisature, which controls the district-drawing, so the thirty or forty percent of Alabama...ns who voted Democratic were largely, and deliberately, disenfranchised."

"Indeed, but under this new voting system, those kinds of boundaries can backfire. Look at this district. Although two of the seats have gone to right-wing parties - the Nationals, and another seat for the Conservatives, perhaps they are rallying after all - the second seat went to the Liberals."

"As we were saying before, most of the old Democratic vote in the Deep South, closely associated with BAME voters, seems to be transferring mostly to the Liberals, with only a small Progressive vote. So the right is more divided than the left here."

"And that's not the only new state we have a declaration from..."

Rich (BB code):
	IL-15		
	Nat          	93,539    	29.2%
	Cst          	86,852    	27.1%
	Con          	46,214    	14.4%
	Prog          	43,008    	13.4%
	Lib          	35,566    	11.1%
	All          	15,262    	4.8%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	320,442
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Cst
			Nat

"That's our first result from Illinois, President Obama's home state. This state perhaps deserves to be better known in the UK and the wider world than it is. Illinois is the sixth largest state by population, with about twelve million people, about the same as Belgium."

"Most of those people can be found in the city of Chicago, a name which viewers everywhere will recognise, but perhaps not think of the modern diverse city rather than its historical association with gangsters such as Al Capone."

"Those city voters have tended to give the Democrats, such as Mr Obama himself, the edge in this state in recent years. With Democratic dominance, the districts have been shaped to spiral out from the city and give the Democrats an advantage, the reverse of what we just saw in Alabama. But again, now, with the new voting system, what will we see?"

"Well, this first result, from the fifteenth district, is certainly not typical. This district is in the south-east of Illinois, in what's called the downstate. This is a district in which the boundaries packed a lot of Republican voters under the old system. And the legacy of that is that all three seats go to right-wing parties now, two National MCs and a Constitution Party one - perhaps not a party we expected to see elected in a state like this."

"Yes, the new voting system is showing undercurrents that, perhaps, were formerly suppressed by the old big-tent party, winner-take-all, system."

Rich (BB code):
	FL-27		
	Lib          	124,454   	41.8%
	Con          	80,340    	27%
	Prog          	49,678    	16.7%
	Nat          	25,389    	8.5%
	Cst          	10,086    	3.4%
	All          	7,618     	2.6%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	297,564
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Con
			Lib

"And that is our very last result from Florida, now thought to be the third largest state by population--"

"I thought you said New York was?"

"I misspoke, New York is fourth. Anyway, this district takes in large parts of Miami. Liberal dominance, but with one seat going to the Conservatives, probably stemming from the old reliable Republican voting bloc of Cuban-American exiles who oppose Fidel Castro's communist regime."

"Of which former Senator Marco Rubio is one, and I believe we can go to Emily speaking to him shortly. In the meantime, we can also declare the two statewide seats..."

Rich (BB code):
	Florida at-large		
	Lib          	2,998,607 	31.8%
	Nat          	2,185,576 	23.2%
	Con          	1,605,909 	17%
	Prog          	1,506,368 	16%
	Cst          	826,401   	8.8%
	All          	297,025   	3.2%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	9,419,886
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib

"As we've seen in a number of other states, the Liberals pick up the extra seats on a plurality thanks to a divided right. The Nationals are quite a way behind in second, and the Conservatives behind them too - indeed, barely ahead of Bernie Sanders' Progressive Party, which many expected to be dead in the water in this part of the country."

"What's the overall number of seats by party in Florida, Jeremy?"

"Er, we can show that as well..."

Rich (BB code):
	Florida seats and popular vote		
	Lib          	42	31.8%
	Nat          	20	23.2%
	Con          	14	17%
	Prog          	6	16%
	Cst          	1	8.8%
	All          	0	3.2%
	Fus          	0	0%

"Forty-two, that's more than half of Florida's eighty-three seats, go to the Liberals, off of less than a third of the vote. Not very proportional, some might say."

"Yes, but that's the point of this voting system, Andrew - it still rewards coming first in districts, whereas many critics of PR from a first-past-the-post perspective complain that it 'rewards losers', and some PR systems have arbitrary bonus seats for parties that come first. In fact, we heard much of that rhetoric from many former Republicans during Mr Obama's long fight to deliver the reforms. I suspect they may have changed their tune, now it turns out that it's the Liberals who are benefiting from the in-built winner bonus..."

"Yes, well, we can hear from one of those Republicans right now, while Jeremy puts up the map..."

Florida.png

The map also seemed visible in the background of the set which the screen abruptly cut away to, revealing Emily Maitlis speaking to a small, young, dark-haired man with a frown on his face. "Marco Rubio, you campaigned intensely for the Conservatives in your home state of Florida, especially since Mr Bush's paper bag incident - of course, it was also his own home state. You have represented it as Senator, and Mr Bush did so as Governor. So can you explain to me why this map is a sea of blue and orange, with not a single Conservative poll-topping victory in a single district?"

Rubio's frown deepened. "Let's dispel with this fiction that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing,” the Florida senator said. “He knows exactly what he's doing."

"Yes you have won fourteen seats thanks to the limited PR system, but that's the same system you railed against, by your commitment to FPTP you'd be left with no seats at - wait, what?" Maitlis paused in her reflexive response to a predictable attack line. "What'd you say?"

"Let's dispel with this fiction that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing,” Rubio explained with a wave of his hand. “He knows exactly what he's doing."

"Well I'm sorry if you haven't encountered a combative British journalist before and now you're getting all hot and bothered when you're used to the useless supine media in your own--" Maitlis paused again, tapping her iPad (other tablet products were available) to turn the page. "No, he's not gone to that one either," she muttered, sotto voce. "What did you - Mr Rubio, why is there a plastic ring attached to a piece of string slowly rising towards a hole in your back?"

"There's a snake in my boot," Rubio intoned dramatically.

The screen abruptly cut to black. "Well, we seem to have lost Emily and Marco Rubio there. Still, I understand that the stagehands have nearly finished hosing down the black chair, so we'll be able to speak to someone else in a moment."

Rich (BB code):
	OH-09		
	Lib          	100,623   	33.4%
	Prog          	76,495    	25.4%
	Con          	57,130    	18.9%
	Nat          	39,552    	13.1%
	All          	14,333    	4.8%
	Cst          	13,522    	4.5%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	301,655
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Con

"To Ohio now, and to one of the nastiest pieces of gerrymandering in the nation. The ninth district is called 'the Snake by the Lake', as it groups together mostly Democratic voters - under the old system - to pack them away from Republican districts, stretching along the coastline of Lake Erie from Toledo to Cleveland."

"Spain to Teesside? That is a big district."

"Yes, all right...it's only technically continuous because of a bridge. If you tried this at home, the Cornish and the Liverpudlians would come and pi--"

"Indeed. Anyway, though it's a left-majority district, with one seat going to the Liberals and one to the Progressives, the Conservatives did nab the third seat. Quite a contrast between Ohio, where Mr Kasich as co-leader does seem to have some genuine local support, with what we just saw in Florida."

Rich (BB code):
	MI-10		
	Nat          	113,315   	31.7%
	Con          	69,125    	19.3%
	Prog          	61,451    	17.2%
	Lib          	51,614    	14.4%
	Cst          	45,730    	12.8%
	All          	16,549    	4.6%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	357,785
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Con
			Prog

"Michigan is Ohio's neighbour - and traditional rival. But both are throwing support to the Progressives and Conservatives here, albeit in this right-leaning surburban district north of Detroit, both are behind the Nationals."

Rich (BB code):
	KY-01		
	Nat          	89,434    	28.8%
	Cst          	77,923    	25.1%
	Con          	57,300    	18.5%
	Prog          	40,379    	13%
	Lib          	33,800    	10.9%
	All          	11,463    	3.7%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	310,299
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Cst
			Con

"Speaking of right-wing districts, here's another of Kentucky's rather extreme cases, in the south-west of the state, with all three seats going to different right-wing parties."

"That's also the last of the Kentucky districts, so the top-up seats are also declared..."

Rich (BB code):
	Kentucky at-large		
	Nat          	436,158   	22.7%
	Con          	383,611   	19.9%
	Cst          	383,202   	19.9%
	Lib          	321,005   	16.7%
	Prog          	307,849   	16%
	All          	91,573    	4.8%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	1,923,398
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Nat

"No map yet because we are still waiting on results from the last two results from Tennessee. But we can say that it's the National Party which has topped the polls in Kentucky, albeit not as decisively as they did in West Virginia."

"But the two are likely related, being neighbouring states in the Appalachian region. How far will that support for Mr Trump's Nationals from these mountain voters, stereotypically called 'hillbillies', extend along this spine of the eastern United States, we ask ourselves?"

Rich (BB code):
	PA-16		
	Fus          	85,223    	26.9%
	Nat          	76,540    	24.1%
	Lib          	71,105    	22.4%
	Prog          	69,081    	21.8%
	All          	15,070    	4.8%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	317,019
			
	MCs elected:		
			Fus
			Nat
			Lib

"Speaking of Appalachian voters...although this district in Pennsylvania is more in the foothills. It takes in Reading, Nottingham, Oxford..."

"That's a big...alright, I won't do the same joke twice."

"More importantly, the Fusionists top the poll, I think that's only the second time we've seen that?"

"Yes, the other time was Indiana's third district. To say the point of the Fusion pact was to try to combine Conservative and Constitution support in those states where it was agreed, often it seems to have had the opposite effect, repelling voters and perhaps driving them to the Nationals. Nonetheless, in this district the Fusionists have come ahead of the Nationals and Liberals."

"And our Pennsylvania map now only has a few holes in it..."

Pennsylvania 14resultds.png

Rich (BB code):
	AL-05		
	Nat          	81,159    	26.2%
	Con          	79,348    	25.6%
	Lib          	77,123    	24.9%
	Cst          	40,064    	12.9%
	Prog          	20,036    	6.5%
	All          	12,208    	3.9%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	309,937
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Con
			Lib

"Our second result from Alabama...the fifth district takes in the uttermost north of the state, which is an area which often doesn't follow the trends of the rest of the state, impacted by investment from projects such as the neighbouring Tennessee Valley Authority."

"Though still clearly right-leaning overall and voting for both Nationals and Conservatives, the Liberals took the third seat in a close three-way finish."

Rich (BB code):
	MI-04		
	Nat          	77,494    	23.6%
	Prog          	66,940    	20.4%
	Cst          	59,028    	18%
	Con          	58,781    	17.9%
	Lib          	46,877    	14.3%
	All          	19,120    	5.8%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	328,240
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Prog
			Cst

"And back to Michigan for the fourth district, a chunk of rural land almost exactly in the middle of the state."

"Very divided again! The Constitution Party got the third seat there, rather than the Conservatives, by only a few hundred votes."

"And the Progressives also got representation, in what's usually considered a fairly right-wing area - interesting."

Rich (BB code):
	TN-05		
	Lib          	102,775   	37.1%
	Prog          	53,833    	19.4%
	Con          	46,605    	16.8%
	Nat          	34,967    	12.6%
	Cst          	24,204    	8.7%
	All          	14,575    	5.3%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	276,959
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Lib

"We were just talking about the Tennessee Valley Authority...but the state's fifth district is synonymous with the city of Nashville, whose impact on music needs no introduction. A left-leaning area, another area where perhaps it's surprising to see the Liberals not shut out the Progressives. The Conservatives don't quite make it to the third seat."

Rich (BB code):
	OH-16		
	Con          	111,500   	30.2%
	Lib          	80,291    	21.8%
	Nat          	71,436    	19.4%
	Prog          	65,381    	17.7%
	Cst          	24,165    	6.6%
	All          	16,064    	4.4%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	368,837
			
	MCs elected:		
			Con
			Lib
			Nat

"But once again, better news for the Conservatives in Ohio."

"Yes, in the north-east of the state, taking in some of the Cleveland suburbs. Once again, though this was made as a pro-Republican gerrymandered district, the new voting system means that Liberal voters there get representation."

"We can also update the map..."

Ohio and Indiana 13results.png

"And that's enough maps for now, because a voice in my ear is telling me that we can - at last - go to that undisclosed location..."

The lights went down, matching the dark room and dark chair that suddenly appeared on the screen.
 
Starting to think the Nats might top the polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which would be a bit of a contrast to the Libs sweeping praticucally the entire eastern seaboard.
 
24 inc complete Kentucky and Tennessee map
Two BBC stagehands, dressed in their traditional brown coats and flat caps, manhandled a struggling journalist in a suit into the black chair, securing him in place with straps. Perhaps it was a trick of the low light, but beneath the shadows of their caps, there was something oddly shiny and metallic about their faces. Their black gloves stretched strangely over their subtly oddly-shaped hands.

"Thank you," said a familiar voice from the side of the dark room. Faint spotlights from the distant ceiling illumintated both the speaker and the man in the black chair, still struggling. "He may speak." One of the stagehands indifferently grasped the man's head in an inhumanly strong hand and tore away the piece of Bagpuss-themed duct tape blocking his mouth.

Immediately, the man's voice rang out, a clear, authoritative, stentorian tone. "How dare you kidnap me from my own desk - don't you realise who I am--"

"I'm afraid we very much do, Mr Bucket," John Humphrys said in a disconcertingly friendly tone. "That is precisely why you are here."

The man licked his lips. "It's Baquet," he said pointedly.

"Of course, Mr Bucket. I must, however, ask that you formally introduce yourself. Your name, please?"

"I -" Bucket looked wildly at the two stagehands, now standing silently on either side of him. "Dean P. Baquet."

"Your occupation?"

"Editor of the New York Times?"

"And your chosen specialist subject?"

"I'm sorry, I don't--"

"It says here 'Anglophobia'. Alright, Mr Bucket, you have two minutes on 'Anglophobia', starting...now. What would be an absurd thing to claim the staple diet of London is?"

"I...lamb and potatoes?"

"I will accept. If the British government were to pressure the resignation of a Metropolitan Police Commissioner who had made repeated poor calls of judgement costing numerous lives from an innocent Brazilian electrician onwards, what would an idiot claim was their only logical motivation for doing so?"

"Er...homophobia."

"Correct. When attempting to provide allegedly serious insight into political and financial events taking place in the United Kingdom, who should be the first person a joke of a newspaper would consult?"

"Ah...an unfunny and bigoted comedian pretending to be a newscaster as a joke?"

"...yeeess but you'll have to me more specific...?"

"Jonathan Pie!"

"Yes, correct. In a hypothetical scenario in which a British university, together with an Anglo-Swedish company, produced an effective vaccine against a novel pandemic virus that was cheap to produce and would save millions of lives in the developing world, what would be the most irresponsible and sociopathic way to report on it?"

"Ah...claim it doesn't work and also causes fatal reactions on a regular basis, leading to millions of avoidable deaths in Africa through spreading fear and lies?"

"Correct! In the event" - beep beep beep - "I've started so I'll finish - in the event of the beloved reigning monarch of the United Kingdom passing away and that country and many others going into mourning, when even fascist dictators and communist regimes are sending respectful tributes, what would be the most contemptible way to cover it?"

"I - headline saying 'uneasy, insecure England faces an uncertain, precarious future'?"

"I'm sure you can do worse, but I'll accept. Thank you Mr Bucket, and you have scored...five points. The good news is that this qualifies you for entry into our Cyber-conversion programme."

"I - what?"

"Take him away, you two." The spotlight faded, leaving only Humphries' faintly glowing blue eyes and earpiece. "You see, Mr Bucket, democracy dies in darkness - and so shall your frail human emotions."

Suddenly, Baquet wrestled his way out of the stagehands' grip - a flat cap flew away, revealing the steel face beneath. "Not today, you limey bastard! Human emotions, my ass! Earth shall fall to our legions, not yours!" He tore away his face, revealing a reptilian one beneath with a thrashing forked tongue tasting the air.

Humphries stared at the camera. "Good plot twist, but I still think bloody Chibnall should have finished on my line as the cliffhanger," he complained as the theme song swelled.

The screen cut back to the studio. "Did nobody tell John we wanted him to ask about the National Party's victories in New York?" Andrew Neil complained.

"I think that part may have been lost in the ether. Oh well, at least we have some more declarations."

Rich (BB code):
	IL-06		
	Prog          	94,438    	26.7%
	Lib          	83,140    	23.5%
	Con          	63,044    	17.8%
	Nat          	49,942    	14.1%
	Cst          	39,923    	11.3%
	All          	23,279    	6.6%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	353,766
			
	MCs elected:		
			Prog
			Lib
			Con

"Illinois' sixth district is perhaps more typical of the majority of the state, taking in some of the north-western suburbs of Chicago. Formerly a Democrat-held district, here we can see the minority right-wing vote has been captured by the Conservatives - which is more what we were expecting would be the default, yet it's not been seen as regularly elsewhere."

"Even more importantly, though, the Progressives have topped the polls for the first time outside of the early declarations we saw in New England - and one in New York. We've already said Mr Sanders' party has been underestimated in terms of winning seats, but now they are even topping the polls in districts again - which, perhaps, bodes well for them picking up additional statewide seats."

Rich (BB code):
	PA-02		
	Lib          	220,124   	59.5%
	Prog          	114,198   	30.9%
	Nat          	15,642    	4.2%
	Fus          	12,425    	3.4%
	All          	7,367     	2%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	369,756
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Lib

"As we were saying, a lot of the Progressives' seats are, however, from coming second to the Liberals in urban districts and getting one out of the three seats. We can see that again here in Pennsylvania's second district - almost done with that state now - which mostly covers the interior of the city of Philadelphia."

Rich (BB code):
	AR-01		
	Nat          	75,862    	29.1%
	Lib          	56,954    	21.8%
	Con          	49,112    	18.8%
	Cst          	44,463    	17.1%
	Prog          	21,734    	8.3%
	All          	12,592    	4.8%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	260,717
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Con

"And yet another new state giving us results, as the polls close."

"Yes, Arkansas, pronounced Arkensor, part of the interior Upper South region...this was, of course, Bill Clinton's home state, and the Democrats were dominant here for quite a while after they began to fade from the rest of the South. But it has trended sharply away from the Democrats under Mr Obama, and indeed the party organisation here practically collapsed. Under the old FPTP system, these districts went rapidly from Democrats opposed only by Greens, to Republicans opposed only by Libertarians."

"But looking quite different now?"

"Yes, another fairly close race between the top four parties...the Nationals are out in front again, with the Conservatives relegated to third. But look at the Liberals, taking the second seat. The residual left-wing vote here now has representation again."

"An interesting consequence of the new system, indeed. How will it affect American politics in the long run, we wonder?"

Rich (BB code):
	TN-04		
	Nat          	79,069    	28.4%
	Con          	61,687    	22.2%
	Cst          	48,858    	17.6%
	Lib          	46,904    	16.9%
	Prog          	28,926    	10.4%
	All          	12,592    	4.5%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	278,035
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Con
			Cst

"No residual left-wing vote here in Tennessee, though. For all that this district was Democratic as recently as 2010, both Liberals and Progressives are out of contention here, with all three seats going to right-wing parties."

"That's also the last Tennessee district, so we can look at the top-up seats..."

Rich (BB code):
	Tennessee at-large		
	Nat          	594,875   	23.8%
	Lib          	585,369   	23.5%
	Con          	550,116   	22.1%
	Cst          	377,934   	15.2%
	Prog          	285,326   	11.4%
	All          	100,618   	4%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	2,494,238
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Nat

"Well. A very close result, with the Liberals less than ten thousand votes away from topping the polls, but it's the National Party whose plurality delivers a bonus. The Conservatives in third, but a close balance between the top three."

"Which means that, like its neighbour Kentucky, Tennessee shows a very divided result, but one where the Appalachian vote - and from elsewhere to a lesser extent - for the Nationals appears to have won the day."

Kentucky and Tennessee.png

"We wondered if this was a rally for the Conservative Party, but though they topped the polls in several districts of these states, it wasn't enough."

"No indeed. Let's look again at the picture across the USA so far. With the caveat that we are looking at declarations going from east to west, so there will be a geographic bias - with, ah, forty-five percent of seats in, that's 620, how do things look?"

Rich (BB code):
241	Lib          	
166	Nat    	
105	Prog        	
64	Con          	
22	Cst        	
22	Fus       	
0	All

"A clear lead for the Liberals, but still everything to play for..."
 
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