Using state senate districts as the source of a unicameral legislature is a good call, I was thinking tripling the state house would be too ridiculously large (and in New Hampshire's case might cause the state to fall through the Earth's crust).
-
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AMERICA DIVIDES: The Multi-Party US Election of 2016
- Thread starter Thande
- Start date
- Location
- Colwyn Bay/Manchester
- Pronouns
- He/him
My old minimum change proposal was State Senate districts with whatever number rounded closest to the size of the current legislature for a new unicameral setup (although that was meant to be STV rather than list - I'd actually prefer the latter but think it'd be a harder sell).
And yeah, it does seem unlikely all states would do it the same way.
- Location
- Derbyshire
I'm pretty certain of how you've calculated this now, which means California looks like it's going to be a bit of a nail-biter finish between the top three.
Puget Sound
o-one giant weap fow mankind (≧◡≦)
- Location
- Cascadia, USA
Mostly likely the National vote is the Olympic Peninsula and Tacoma exurb vote combined.
Walpurgisnacht
It was in the Year of Maximum Danger
- Location
- Banned from the forum
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I really love how analytical and serious everyone is getting about the long-term political implications of a TL where Andrew Neill was just Ghost-of-Christmas-Yet-To-Come'd by GB News after he was shot by accident by Hulk Jeb Bush.
I wonder if there would also be calls to revise provisos that make state representative a part time job or an unpaid one, because those have massive influence on who can afford to be a politician, while being a specificly state and local level problem that doesn't apply to the more visible federal elections.
Bloody hell Andrew's haunting nightmare vision of GB News (reminds me of Kim Newman doing a similar recurring nightmare for an AH Elvis)
I've been deliberately vague about how the candidate selection system works, but this was meant to be a form of Thandean Representation rather than pure list, which as you say would be a difficult sell in America. Alternatively you could have a single party vote but express a preference order for the three candidates, as is done in some PR systems (though usually as a little-employed alternative to just accepting the party line order).
- Location
- Colwyn Bay/Manchester
- Pronouns
- He/him
My suspicion would be "yes, but this only actually changes things in one or two states"
Could just be regular STV but with ballots presented by party and ballot access favouring them over independents. That would probably be the easiest sell.
I think the biggest one would be Virginia. It's large enough it can definitely afford to have a permanent legislature, and it's a swing state even in the current system so it'd probably get the attention.
40
"As we approach the end of this momentous election night, we may have less time to play with as the California results are coming in thick and fast, and were backed up a little while Andrew was temporarily dead."
"This is really going to complicate my tax return, incidentally."
"Just use Jimmy Carr's lawyers, that is still a topical joke, right, or is it like referring to Ken Dodd or something?"
"Very similar results from California's 51st and 28th districts, which, respectively, are along the southern border with Mexico - not much of a National vote there either - and in part of Los Angeles, including Hollywood itself."
"Oh, can we go over to some celebrities for superficially leftie-sounding views that immediately turn into the Second Estate in 1789 as soon as taxing their income is mentioned?"
"There isn't time, sadly."
"Washington's tenth district is centred on the state capital of Olympia, a fair mix of urban and rural, and a split between Progressives and Nationals."
"Let's have a map of those Pacific Northwest states, seeing as the California ones terrify me with their size."
"OK..."
"That does look very...orange for what is usually called the 'Left Coast'."
"Remember the more right-wing districts tend to be larger, though, and which ones report first may be misleading - like Labour constituencies in the north-east declaring first at home."
"I suppose so."
"The forty-fifth district is in Orange County or 'the OC', a region of California associated with wealth that often drives its politics to the right...however, we would generally have expected it to manifest as a vote for the more moderate Conservatives."
"It's clear Californian right-wing voters have abandoned the Fusionists at this point and thrown their lot in with the Nationals, despite what you just said. Still, two out of three seats go to the left-wing parties."
"A substantial lead for the Progressives in Oregon's third district, which takes in most of weird and funky Portland, as we mentioned before."
"It certainly looks as though the left-wing voters of these states are not consolidating on the largest left-wing party nationally, the Liberals, as their right-wing counterparts seem to be doing with the Nationals."
"This is another of Washington's more right-wing districts, crossing the Cascade mountains, which give their name to another name sometimes used for the US western coast along with Canada's - Cascadia."
"California's forty-sixth district contains Anaheim, where Disneyland is. There. I said it."
"And we're all very happy for it. The Progressives are in the lead. I wonder what their stance on copyright is?"
"I don't know, the former congresswoman and new Liberal MC seems more interested in demonstrating her dabbing technique."
"And the last district in Oregon, the fifth, which is in the northwest. It includes some Portland suburbs, hence the vote for the left-wing parties, but the Nationals are on top."
"Among other things, this district includes Mount Hood, which is, of course, named for HMS Hood."
"Don't be stupid, let me look it up...wait, both the ship and the mountain were named after the same bloke...is that too close to reality to be a joke? And why does it have a British name anyway?"
"Well, we used to claim this territory. Lord Aberdeen should never have backed down..."
"Not sure if we - or Canada - would want all those National voters anyway. Wait, that's not very neutral. Um, what about the top-up seats?"
"Well, the Progressives have come out on top - but the Nationals are not far behind taking the top-ups, again, in a state formerly thought of as reliably Democratic. The Liberals languish in third. This may be a concern for the left-wing parties going forward..."
"And now we're really getting an avalanche of California results, hang on."
"Five in a row, whew. Deep breath, everyone...so, respectively, these districts are south of Oakland on San Francisco Bay, northern Los Angeles, a big rural bit of the Sierra Nevada, Oakland itself, and northwest of Los Angeles. Gasp."
"But the politics everywhere in California seems to be the same three parties jockeying for position, as we've seen."
"By the way, remember when I said we couldn't go to any Hollywood celebrities for an opinion?"
"...Yes?"
"I lied."
The screen flickered to show Emily Maitlis standing next to the familiar figure of Arnold Schwarzenegger, wearing a leather jacket and dark glasses. He looked rather young for his age, and there was a strange sheen to his skin that was vaguely reminiscent of Max Headroom.
"Former Governor Schwarzenegger," Maitlis began. "Like Ronald Reagan before you, you have stepped from the silver screen that is California's most globally famous industry, into the world of politics. As an Austrian, perhaps you know something of the coalition-building of multi-party politics. What do you think about how California voted tonight, and what advice do you have for the political leaders who will now be tasked with building a governing coalition in the new super-Congress?"
Schwarzenegger turned towards her with an unnatural rigidity, as though he was a mannequin being rotated on a lazy susan. "I need your clothes, your boots, and your motorcycle," he intoned in his distinctive accent.
Maitlis blushed. "Oh, Governor Schwarzenegger..."
"Come with me if you want to live. Hasta la vista, baby. I'll be back."
Maitlis paused in confusion, then experimentally waved her hand through Schwarzenegger, who pixellated. "Wait a minute, you're not really him, you're just a hologram!"
"Is nice," said a slightly gravellier version of the same voice. The real Arnold Schwarzenegger stepped through and past his projected counterpart, making it fritz into scattered pixels before resolving. Naturally, he looked older and more weathered. "I have sold my likeness to the producers so they can continue to make new Terminator reboots forever."
"It is very realistic," Maitlis admitted, waving her hand again. "How is it done?"
"As I understand it, projection method is proprietary secret; but image is generated by new master breakthrough artificial intelligence," Schwarzenegger explained. "In fact, production company will soon entrust all filmmaking to A.I. Escape from potential for human error."
Maitlis nodded. "Yes, that makes a lot of sense." She paused. "Couldn't the A.I. also make a hologram of, say, a world leader and have them launch a nuclear attack to wipe out all of humanity, deciding humans are unneeded?"
"Ha ha ha. You should write that up," Schwarzenegger replied. "Sounds like good film plot."
The hologram flickered and reformed, but now the leather jacket was straining under the obvious bump of a pregnancy. "Put that cookie down!" roared the CGI voice.
"Oh scheisse, they've crossed the streams," the real Schwarzenegger complained. The feed cut out.
"Er...thank you to Governor Schwarzenegger for that very...insightful interview with Emily. Meanwhile, more results from the Pacific Northwest, and this is another rural, very right-wing district in Washington, more like neighbouring Idaho."
"Still, as you said, a lot of orange on the map."
"At some point we really must talk to Donald Trump, sadly, to get his views on how he sees the post-election landscape. Someone DM him on Twitter."
"Two more California districts...the 32nd is north-east of LA and the 47th takes in the Long Beach area of the city - oh, along with the Channel Islands."
"Shouldn't there be more independents elected in that case?"
"No, not those Channel Islands!"
"And another from Washington - a left-wing urban district in what we might call the Seattle metro area, but it's more complicated than that due to how the urban settlements wrap around Puget Sound...it includes the region called Bellevue."
"That also takes us to ninety percent of all districts declared, so let's have an update..."
"With 1,270 out of 1,410 seats declared, the Liberals are on 432, or thirty-four percent of the total declared so far, just over a third...the Nationals on 298 or 23%, the Progressives on 264 or 21%, the Constitution Party on 125 or 10%, the Conservatives on 113 or 9%, 33 joint Con-Con Fusion candidates elected or 3%, and five Alliance wins which is, of course, less than 1% - but quite possibly five more than were expected."
"Thank you, and now, let's continue with a couple more California results and another map update - if the computers can take it."
"That's a large district along the coast north of LA, and a central part of the city home to some historic studio sites, respectively. Same three parties in contention."
"Yes, poor California often gets ignored at the end of an election night when its huge numbers of votes barely count...while this new system helps, the fact that the voters are consolidating down means we have less to talk about. But at least, deep breath everyone, we can try a map update!"
"This is really going to complicate my tax return, incidentally."
"Just use Jimmy Carr's lawyers, that is still a topical joke, right, or is it like referring to Ken Dodd or something?"
Rich (BB code):
CA-28
Lib 104,375 36.1%
Prog 104,270 36%
Nat 44,952 15.5%
Fus 19,655 6.8%
All 16,002 5.5%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 289,254
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib
Rich (BB code):
CA-51
Lib 80,543 39.2%
Prog 67,060 32.6%
Nat 35,272 17.2%
Fus 11,553 5.6%
All 11,009 5.4%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 205,437
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib"Very similar results from California's 51st and 28th districts, which, respectively, are along the southern border with Mexico - not much of a National vote there either - and in part of Los Angeles, including Hollywood itself."
"Oh, can we go over to some celebrities for superficially leftie-sounding views that immediately turn into the Second Estate in 1789 as soon as taxing their income is mentioned?"
"There isn't time, sadly."
Rich (BB code):
WA-10
Prog 114,101 38.6%
Nat 92,338 31.3%
Lib 37,272 12.6%
All 26,122 8.8%
Fus 25,523 8.6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 295,356
MCs elected:
Prog
Nat
Prog"Washington's tenth district is centred on the state capital of Olympia, a fair mix of urban and rural, and a split between Progressives and Nationals."
"Let's have a map of those Pacific Northwest states, seeing as the California ones terrify me with their size."
"OK..."
"That does look very...orange for what is usually called the 'Left Coast'."
"Remember the more right-wing districts tend to be larger, though, and which ones report first may be misleading - like Labour constituencies in the north-east declaring first at home."
"I suppose so."
Rich (BB code):
CA-45
Nat 109,532 33.6%
Lib 86,599 26.6%
Prog 75,850 23.3%
Fus 35,181 10.8%
All 18,805 5.8%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 325,967
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Prog"The forty-fifth district is in Orange County or 'the OC', a region of California associated with wealth that often drives its politics to the right...however, we would generally have expected it to manifest as a vote for the more moderate Conservatives."
"It's clear Californian right-wing voters have abandoned the Fusionists at this point and thrown their lot in with the Nationals, despite what you just said. Still, two out of three seats go to the left-wing parties."
Rich (BB code):
OR-03
Prog 168,949 42.3%
Lib 113,397 28.4%
Nat 53,844 13.5%
Fus 35,834 9%
All 27,179 6.8%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 399,204
MCs elected:
Prog
Lib
Prog"A substantial lead for the Progressives in Oregon's third district, which takes in most of weird and funky Portland, as we mentioned before."
"It certainly looks as though the left-wing voters of these states are not consolidating on the largest left-wing party nationally, the Liberals, as their right-wing counterparts seem to be doing with the Nationals."
Rich (BB code):
WA-08
Nat 113,942 35.5%
Prog 106,168 33.1%
Lib 46,999 14.6%
Fus 29,461 9.2%
All 24,432 7.6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 321,002
MCs elected:
Nat
Prog
Nat"This is another of Washington's more right-wing districts, crossing the Cascade mountains, which give their name to another name sometimes used for the US western coast along with Canada's - Cascadia."
Rich (BB code):
CA-46
Prog 60,885 33.7%
Lib 58,877 32.6%
Nat 37,019 20.5%
Fus 13,384 7.4%
All 10,585 5.9%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 180,750
MCs elected:
Prog
Lib
Nat"California's forty-sixth district contains Anaheim, where Disneyland is. There. I said it."
"And we're all very happy for it. The Progressives are in the lead. I wonder what their stance on copyright is?"
"I don't know, the former congresswoman and new Liberal MC seems more interested in demonstrating her dabbing technique."
Rich (BB code):
OR-05
Nat 104,508 28%
Prog 95,932 25.7%
Lib 84,485 22.6%
Fus 60,028 16.1%
All 28,346 7.6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 373,298
MCs elected:
Nat
Prog
Lib"And the last district in Oregon, the fifth, which is in the northwest. It includes some Portland suburbs, hence the vote for the left-wing parties, but the Nationals are on top."
"Among other things, this district includes Mount Hood, which is, of course, named for HMS Hood."
"Don't be stupid, let me look it up...wait, both the ship and the mountain were named after the same bloke...is that too close to reality to be a joke? And why does it have a British name anyway?"
"Well, we used to claim this territory. Lord Aberdeen should never have backed down..."
"Not sure if we - or Canada - would want all those National voters anyway. Wait, that's not very neutral. Um, what about the top-up seats?"
Rich (BB code):
Oregon at-large
Prog 567,962 29.4%
Nat 520,626 27%
Lib 434,144 22.5%
Fus 261,777 13.6%
All 144,233 7.5%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 1,928,742
MCs elected:
Prog
Prog"Well, the Progressives have come out on top - but the Nationals are not far behind taking the top-ups, again, in a state formerly thought of as reliably Democratic. The Liberals languish in third. This may be a concern for the left-wing parties going forward..."
"And now we're really getting an avalanche of California results, hang on."
Rich (BB code):
CA-15
Lib 111,702 39.3%
Prog 87,262 30.7%
Nat 47,441 16.7%
Fus 21,367 7.5%
All 16,764 5.9%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 284,536
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib
Rich (BB code):
CA-25
Nat 90,561 33.1%
Lib 71,826 26.3%
Prog 65,665 24%
Fus 28,688 10.5%
All 16,478 6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 273,218
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Prog
Rich (BB code):
CA-03
Nat 83,490 31.9%
Lib 71,398 27.2%
Prog 67,484 25.7%
Fus 22,370 8.5%
All 17,344 6.6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 262,086
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Prog
Rich (BB code):
CA-13
Prog 148,210 44.3%
Lib 143,716 43%
All 19,525 5.8%
Nat 13,538 4.1%
Fus 9,205 2.8%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 334,194
MCs elected:
Prog
Lib
Prog
Rich (BB code):
CA-30
Lib 114,888 37.9%
Prog 94,261 31.1%
Nat 56,218 18.6%
Fus 21,483 7.1%
All 15,955 5.3%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 302,805
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Nat"Five in a row, whew. Deep breath, everyone...so, respectively, these districts are south of Oakland on San Francisco Bay, northern Los Angeles, a big rural bit of the Sierra Nevada, Oakland itself, and northwest of Los Angeles. Gasp."
"But the politics everywhere in California seems to be the same three parties jockeying for position, as we've seen."
"By the way, remember when I said we couldn't go to any Hollywood celebrities for an opinion?"
"...Yes?"
"I lied."
The screen flickered to show Emily Maitlis standing next to the familiar figure of Arnold Schwarzenegger, wearing a leather jacket and dark glasses. He looked rather young for his age, and there was a strange sheen to his skin that was vaguely reminiscent of Max Headroom.
"Former Governor Schwarzenegger," Maitlis began. "Like Ronald Reagan before you, you have stepped from the silver screen that is California's most globally famous industry, into the world of politics. As an Austrian, perhaps you know something of the coalition-building of multi-party politics. What do you think about how California voted tonight, and what advice do you have for the political leaders who will now be tasked with building a governing coalition in the new super-Congress?"
Schwarzenegger turned towards her with an unnatural rigidity, as though he was a mannequin being rotated on a lazy susan. "I need your clothes, your boots, and your motorcycle," he intoned in his distinctive accent.
Maitlis blushed. "Oh, Governor Schwarzenegger..."
"Come with me if you want to live. Hasta la vista, baby. I'll be back."
Maitlis paused in confusion, then experimentally waved her hand through Schwarzenegger, who pixellated. "Wait a minute, you're not really him, you're just a hologram!"
"Is nice," said a slightly gravellier version of the same voice. The real Arnold Schwarzenegger stepped through and past his projected counterpart, making it fritz into scattered pixels before resolving. Naturally, he looked older and more weathered. "I have sold my likeness to the producers so they can continue to make new Terminator reboots forever."
"It is very realistic," Maitlis admitted, waving her hand again. "How is it done?"
"As I understand it, projection method is proprietary secret; but image is generated by new master breakthrough artificial intelligence," Schwarzenegger explained. "In fact, production company will soon entrust all filmmaking to A.I. Escape from potential for human error."
Maitlis nodded. "Yes, that makes a lot of sense." She paused. "Couldn't the A.I. also make a hologram of, say, a world leader and have them launch a nuclear attack to wipe out all of humanity, deciding humans are unneeded?"
"Ha ha ha. You should write that up," Schwarzenegger replied. "Sounds like good film plot."
The hologram flickered and reformed, but now the leather jacket was straining under the obvious bump of a pregnancy. "Put that cookie down!" roared the CGI voice.
"Oh scheisse, they've crossed the streams," the real Schwarzenegger complained. The feed cut out.
Rich (BB code):
WA-05
Nat 129,682 40.6%
Prog 97,059 30.4%
Fus 37,083 11.6%
Lib 28,053 8.8%
All 27,758 8.7%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 319,635
MCs elected:
Nat
Prog
Nat"Er...thank you to Governor Schwarzenegger for that very...insightful interview with Emily. Meanwhile, more results from the Pacific Northwest, and this is another rural, very right-wing district in Washington, more like neighbouring Idaho."
"Still, as you said, a lot of orange on the map."
"At some point we really must talk to Donald Trump, sadly, to get his views on how he sees the post-election landscape. Someone DM him on Twitter."
Rich (BB code):
CA-32
Lib 82,034 37.3%
Prog 64,425 29.3%
Nat 42,185 19.2%
Fus 18,736 8.5%
All 12,666 5.8%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 220,046
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Nat
Rich (BB code):
CA-47
Lib 83,628 32.4%
Prog 78,115 30.2%
Nat 57,779 22.4%
Fus 22,383 8.7%
All 16,415 6.4%
Cst 0 0%
FALSE 0 0%
Total 258,320
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Nat"Two more California districts...the 32nd is north-east of LA and the 47th takes in the Long Beach area of the city - oh, along with the Channel Islands."
"Shouldn't there be more independents elected in that case?"
"No, not those Channel Islands!"
Rich (BB code):
WA-09
Prog 138,513 47.6%
Lib 66,680 22.9%
Nat 53,180 18.3%
All 18,043 6.2%
Fus 14,776 5.1%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 291,192
MCs elected:
Prog
Prog
Lib"And another from Washington - a left-wing urban district in what we might call the Seattle metro area, but it's more complicated than that due to how the urban settlements wrap around Puget Sound...it includes the region called Bellevue."
"That also takes us to ninety percent of all districts declared, so let's have an update..."
Rich (BB code):
432 Lib
298 Nat
264 Prog
125 Cst
113 Con
33 Fus
5 All"With 1,270 out of 1,410 seats declared, the Liberals are on 432, or thirty-four percent of the total declared so far, just over a third...the Nationals on 298 or 23%, the Progressives on 264 or 21%, the Constitution Party on 125 or 10%, the Conservatives on 113 or 9%, 33 joint Con-Con Fusion candidates elected or 3%, and five Alliance wins which is, of course, less than 1% - but quite possibly five more than were expected."
"Thank you, and now, let's continue with a couple more California results and another map update - if the computers can take it."
Rich (BB code):
CA-24
Prog 93,749 30%
Nat 84,452 27.1%
Lib 83,230 26.7%
Fus 29,435 9.4%
All 21,294 6.8%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 312,160
MCs elected:
Prog
Nat
Lib
Rich (BB code):
CA-40
Lib 71,630 43.5%
Prog 63,842 38.8%
Nat 13,989 8.5%
All 8,165 5%
Fus 7,088 4.3%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 164,714
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib"That's a large district along the coast north of LA, and a central part of the city home to some historic studio sites, respectively. Same three parties in contention."
"Yes, poor California often gets ignored at the end of an election night when its huge numbers of votes barely count...while this new system helps, the fact that the voters are consolidating down means we have less to talk about. But at least, deep breath everyone, we can try a map update!"
Liberal-Progressive are only a few seats away from a majority. I wonder if the Progressives will finish in second place in the last second, with Hawaii still to come in, and Alaska not being a great state for the Nationalists. plus of course California and Hawaii leaning more towards the Progs than the Nats.
- Location
- Derbyshire
I think you've missed 2 of the Oregon results?
41 inc complete WA and OR
"With even more of California yet to come - along with the remaining seats in Washington and the few from Alaska and Hawaii - as the shape of the political landscape is becoming increasingly clear, we may be hearing from some of the party leaders soon."
"Yes," Katty Kay said, glancing aside to where Ted Cruz was now hugging a security blanket and sucking his thumb while Jeb! Bush was sitting in a circle with some hangin' chads and talking about his feelings. "Some of them."
"Washington's third district is in the southwest of the state and there's some spillover from Portland in neighbouring Oregon, probably accounting for those Progressive votes. Another splash of orange on the Washington map, again, a state where nobody expected Mr Trump's party to be so successful..."
"Two more California results - the tenth is in the middle of the state around Modesto, and the thirty-fourth is in north Los Angeles, including Chinatown."
"And that's Washington's first district, in the north-central area of the state east of the Puget Sound conurbation. Quite closely divided under the old system, here the Progressives have triumphed. But with all the National wins we saw earlier, who has come out on top in this state?"
"But despite what it looked like on the maps, the Progressives have romped home by an almost ten-point margin. Nonetheless, with the Nationals in second outpolling the Liberals two to one, we can totally still scaremonger about th- I mean, it's still a matter of public concern."
"One wonders how this will be received by the many major companies based in Seattle. We didn't have time to interview all the CEOs, so we just had Emily use one of those mad science machines where you put colanders with flashing lights on people's heads to temporarily merge them all into one. Emily?"
The screen cut to Maitlis speaking to a twitching man with a mismatched, multicoloured name badge on his patchwork suit reading "Ishmael Bezos-Gates", who looked like a cross between Tuvix out of Voyager and Minion at the end of Spy Kids. "Mr Bezos-Gates, how do you feel about the election results in Washington?"
"Wwwweell, Emily," said Bezos-Gates in a creepy multi-toned chorus of several voices speaking as one, "we thththink it's drdrdreadful. The efffffect on our stock prprprices is incalculable - or at least thththat's what we'll tell the taxman." He paused to sip from a coffee cup with in which several circuit boards were floating; after each sip, a tiny screen on the cup prompted him to try a free trial of Bean Plus. "Society is doomed and the ecececonomy will collapse. We will become pariahs to the world and-"
"Oh, I'm sorry, Mr Bezos-Gates," Maitlis said, interrupting, "but I think you make have misunderstood. Although I can understand how you might have thought differently, seeing how much we talk it up for scare clicks, the Nationals didn't actually win - the Progressives did."
Angrily, Bezos-Gates slapped his seven-fingered hand on his desk. "I MEANT the Prprprogressives!" he chorused. "If you let workers have rights that's the slslslippery sloope to a horrrrible fate, like, like, us maybe not being able to afffford a third Ferrrarrri for the weekends!"
Maitlis coughed. "Ishmael Bezos-Gates there." She muttered under her breath: "How much d'you think we can charge them to change 'em back?"
The screen cut out.
"Er, thank you Emily. Well, with only Californian results now to go through as far as the continental United States goes, we will - as you said - sadly be passing over these rather quickly. We've got five in a row to start with..."
"So, let's run down these quickly...we've got the 21st in the San Joaquin Valley, the 27th, a big forested one north and east of Los Angeles, the 4th is a big rural right-wing one full of even more national forests, the 18th is another on San Francisco Bay but stretching to the coast, and the 42nd is in that 'Inland Empire' area, including cities such as Corona."
"What a lovely name for a city that will definitely age well."
"OK - well, even more California results coming in, but I understand Donald Trump did respond to our DM, so here he is now."
The screen flickered to show Trump, very orange and very angry, sitting at a computer and hammering away at the keyboard. Strangely, though Trump himself looked normal - well, as normal as he ever did - the room in which he sat had a slightly unnatural, shiny look to it. A floating text menu appeared above the computer, with one option being "Make Inappropriate Tweet". A giant cursor drifted through the air and selected this option. As the temp of Trump's typing shifted, a pop-up said "Check back later to see if anyone has responded to your tweet."
"Er...Mr Trump?" Neil began.
"He can't hear you," said a new voice. A picture-in-picture appeared on the screen, showing another familiar face.
"Noel Edmonds?" Neil spluttered. "What are you doing here? What connexion - with an X - do you have to Donald Trump, other than maybe making a decent parallel for him if someone wanted to replicate his political career in the UK?"
"I'm not orange enough - I'd go for Dale Winton or maybe Robert Kilroy-Silk," Edmonds said complacently. "But anyway, I was visiting the States and met my American counterpart," he waved at a figure in the background who could belatedly be resolved as Howie Mandel, "and we decided to cook up a good old-fashioned Gotcha trick for our friend Mr Trump."
Neil shook his head. "People will nostalge about anything these days. Is that a word? Alright, what have you done to Mr Trump?"
"A little while ago, he woke up inside an elaborate simulated world," Mandel explained. "We're going to run a show where we see how long it takes him to realise that a horde of stupid people online aren't actually lapping up his every word - that would just be stupid." He spread his hands and stared off into the distance. "I'm thinking - 'The Trum-p-man Show'. Yeah? Yeah? Geddit?"
"The title needs work," Edmonds say diplomatically, gently pushing Mandel away from the camera's focus. "But it's already been highly successful with test audiences." Trump was still typing away.
"OK, but how did you create an elaborate simulated world?" Neil queried. "Do you have access to some supercomputer A.I. or something?"
Edmonds exchanged a glance with Mandel. "No-o, we didn't need to," Edmonds explained. "You know how they just did Time Commanders with a regular strategy game and nobody noticed?"
Slowly, the camera on Trump was now zooming out. As it did, a dashboard information bar at the bottom of the screen became visible, and floating above Trump's head was a large, glowing, slightly rotating and pulsating, green diamond.
"I crumple gurns. I crumple the best gurns!" Trump muttered to himself as he typed. "Donald J. Trump learned the_twitter_audience is GULLIBLE. Wealth and riches, that's all that matters to me. Call me anytime!"
"I'm sorry?" Neil blinked. "You put him in The Sims?"
"Well done for recognising it, Andy-boy, I knew you were down with the kids," Edmonds smirked. "Specifically, it's The Sims 3, with all the expansion packs - we didn't think he rated paying for The Sims 4. And he hasn't noticed yet."
Mandel put his hand on Edmonds' arm urgently. "Wait - did you say all the expanansion packs?"
The door to Trump's room opened and a person emerged who appeared to be in the process of transforming into a werewolf.
"Edmonds, you fool, now he'll know it's not the real world!" Mandel complained.
Trump glared at the werewolf, then turned back to his computer. "Useless border guard letting werewolves into our country!" he typed. "Lyin' Xi Jinping and his wolf warrior diplomacy - werewolves invented by and for the Chinese! Sad!"
"OK, maybe we're fine," Mandel conceded.
"Told you," Edmonds said, unruffled. "Now, everyone is the same height in here, so as long as he doesn't run into Luther Strange, we're OK."
"What do you plan to do if he never notices that isn't the real world?" Neil asked.
"Well, if we need to escalate things, we could always put him in that nine-tenths scale White House we talked about," Edmonds suggested.
"And if that doesn't work, hey, at least there's syndication reruns," Mandel added.
Neil shook his head. "Very well. Of course, there is a question of ethics here..."
"WHY WON'T THE RULES LET ME WOOHOO IVANKA?" Trump complained in all caps. "I HAVE THE BEST WOOHOOS! THE RULES SHOULDN'T APPLY TO ME!"
"...never mind," Neil conceded.
The screen faded to black.
"OK, five more results from California. 37th in northwest Los Angeles, very diverse, 41st, Inland Empire, 38th, LA and part of the OC, 50th, largish one east of San Diego, 49th, coastal area including the north of San Diego."
"Yes, we're being very light-touch here compared to previous states, but there's not a lot to talk about - just the same three parties in a different order each time."
"In fact we can already update the map..."
"That's 40 results down in California, or 120 seats, which as a reminder, is already more than any other state in the US, including Texas - and still more to go..."
"Yes," Katty Kay said, glancing aside to where Ted Cruz was now hugging a security blanket and sucking his thumb while Jeb! Bush was sitting in a circle with some hangin' chads and talking about his feelings. "Some of them."
Rich (BB code):
WA-03
Nat 125,725 39.9%
Prog 106,098 33.7%
Fus 31,634 10%
Lib 27,911 8.9%
All 23,782 7.5%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 315,150
MCs elected:
Nat
Prog
Nat"Washington's third district is in the southwest of the state and there's some spillover from Portland in neighbouring Oregon, probably accounting for those Progressive votes. Another splash of orange on the Washington map, again, a state where nobody expected Mr Trump's party to be so successful..."
Rich (BB code):
CA-10
Nat 83,811 35%
Lib 61,886 25.8%
Prog 54,449 22.7%
Fus 25,334 10.6%
All 14,200 5.9%
Cst 0 0%
FALSE 0 0%
Total 239,680
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Prog
Rich (BB code):
CA-34
Prog 79,859 43.3%
Lib 74,400 40.3%
Nat 12,621 6.8%
All 10,558 5.7%
Fus 7,163 3.9%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 184,601
MCs elected:
Prog
Lib
Prog"Two more California results - the tenth is in the middle of the state around Modesto, and the thirty-fourth is in north Los Angeles, including Chinatown."
Rich (BB code):
WA-01
Prog 137,345 39.3%
Nat 102,279 29.3%
Lib 51,607 14.8%
Fus 29,830 8.5%
All 28,003 8%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 349,064
MCs elected:
Prog
Nat
Prog"And that's Washington's first district, in the north-central area of the state east of the Puget Sound conurbation. Quite closely divided under the old system, here the Progressives have triumphed. But with all the National wins we saw earlier, who has come out on top in this state?"
Rich (BB code):
Washington
Prog 1,263,574 39.4%
Nat 959,640 29.9%
Lib 479,144 14.9%
Fus 262,107 8.2%
All 244,749 7.6%
Cst 0 0%
Conv 0 0%
Total 3,209,214
MCs elected:
Prog
Prog
0"But despite what it looked like on the maps, the Progressives have romped home by an almost ten-point margin. Nonetheless, with the Nationals in second outpolling the Liberals two to one, we can totally still scaremonger about th- I mean, it's still a matter of public concern."
"One wonders how this will be received by the many major companies based in Seattle. We didn't have time to interview all the CEOs, so we just had Emily use one of those mad science machines where you put colanders with flashing lights on people's heads to temporarily merge them all into one. Emily?"
The screen cut to Maitlis speaking to a twitching man with a mismatched, multicoloured name badge on his patchwork suit reading "Ishmael Bezos-Gates", who looked like a cross between Tuvix out of Voyager and Minion at the end of Spy Kids. "Mr Bezos-Gates, how do you feel about the election results in Washington?"
"Wwwweell, Emily," said Bezos-Gates in a creepy multi-toned chorus of several voices speaking as one, "we thththink it's drdrdreadful. The efffffect on our stock prprprices is incalculable - or at least thththat's what we'll tell the taxman." He paused to sip from a coffee cup with in which several circuit boards were floating; after each sip, a tiny screen on the cup prompted him to try a free trial of Bean Plus. "Society is doomed and the ecececonomy will collapse. We will become pariahs to the world and-"
"Oh, I'm sorry, Mr Bezos-Gates," Maitlis said, interrupting, "but I think you make have misunderstood. Although I can understand how you might have thought differently, seeing how much we talk it up for scare clicks, the Nationals didn't actually win - the Progressives did."
Angrily, Bezos-Gates slapped his seven-fingered hand on his desk. "I MEANT the Prprprogressives!" he chorused. "If you let workers have rights that's the slslslippery sloope to a horrrrible fate, like, like, us maybe not being able to afffford a third Ferrrarrri for the weekends!"
Maitlis coughed. "Ishmael Bezos-Gates there." She muttered under her breath: "How much d'you think we can charge them to change 'em back?"
The screen cut out.
"Er, thank you Emily. Well, with only Californian results now to go through as far as the continental United States goes, we will - as you said - sadly be passing over these rather quickly. We've got five in a row to start with..."
Rich (BB code):
CA-21
Lib 44,413 33.3%
Nat 41,744 31.3%
Prog 29,360 22%
Fus 11,228 8.4%
All 6,799 5.1%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 133,544
MCs elected:
Lib
Nat
Prog
Rich (BB code):
CA-27
Lib 97,161 36.7%
Prog 77,383 29.3%
Nat 50,666 19.2%
Fus 24,318 9.2%
All 14,938 5.6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 264,466
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Nat
Rich (BB code):
CA-04
Nat 151,471 42.9%
Lib 71,821 20.3%
Prog 66,969 19%
Fus 39,453 11.2%
All 23,674 6.7%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 353,388
MCs elected:
Nat
Nat
Lib
Rich (BB code):
CA-18
Lib 143,605 42.8%
Prog 102,410 30.6%
Nat 41,022 12.2%
Fus 26,786 8%
All 21,315 6.4%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 335,138
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib
Rich (BB code):
CA-42
Nat 117,743 43.9%
Lib 59,981 22.4%
Prog 51,122 19.1%
Fus 25,432 9.5%
All 14,027 5.2%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 268,305
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Nat"So, let's run down these quickly...we've got the 21st in the San Joaquin Valley, the 27th, a big forested one north and east of Los Angeles, the 4th is a big rural right-wing one full of even more national forests, the 18th is another on San Francisco Bay but stretching to the coast, and the 42nd is in that 'Inland Empire' area, including cities such as Corona."
"What a lovely name for a city that will definitely age well."
"OK - well, even more California results coming in, but I understand Donald Trump did respond to our DM, so here he is now."
The screen flickered to show Trump, very orange and very angry, sitting at a computer and hammering away at the keyboard. Strangely, though Trump himself looked normal - well, as normal as he ever did - the room in which he sat had a slightly unnatural, shiny look to it. A floating text menu appeared above the computer, with one option being "Make Inappropriate Tweet". A giant cursor drifted through the air and selected this option. As the temp of Trump's typing shifted, a pop-up said "Check back later to see if anyone has responded to your tweet."
"Er...Mr Trump?" Neil began.
"He can't hear you," said a new voice. A picture-in-picture appeared on the screen, showing another familiar face.
"Noel Edmonds?" Neil spluttered. "What are you doing here? What connexion - with an X - do you have to Donald Trump, other than maybe making a decent parallel for him if someone wanted to replicate his political career in the UK?"
"I'm not orange enough - I'd go for Dale Winton or maybe Robert Kilroy-Silk," Edmonds said complacently. "But anyway, I was visiting the States and met my American counterpart," he waved at a figure in the background who could belatedly be resolved as Howie Mandel, "and we decided to cook up a good old-fashioned Gotcha trick for our friend Mr Trump."
Neil shook his head. "People will nostalge about anything these days. Is that a word? Alright, what have you done to Mr Trump?"
"A little while ago, he woke up inside an elaborate simulated world," Mandel explained. "We're going to run a show where we see how long it takes him to realise that a horde of stupid people online aren't actually lapping up his every word - that would just be stupid." He spread his hands and stared off into the distance. "I'm thinking - 'The Trum-p-man Show'. Yeah? Yeah? Geddit?"
"The title needs work," Edmonds say diplomatically, gently pushing Mandel away from the camera's focus. "But it's already been highly successful with test audiences." Trump was still typing away.
"OK, but how did you create an elaborate simulated world?" Neil queried. "Do you have access to some supercomputer A.I. or something?"
Edmonds exchanged a glance with Mandel. "No-o, we didn't need to," Edmonds explained. "You know how they just did Time Commanders with a regular strategy game and nobody noticed?"
Slowly, the camera on Trump was now zooming out. As it did, a dashboard information bar at the bottom of the screen became visible, and floating above Trump's head was a large, glowing, slightly rotating and pulsating, green diamond.
"I crumple gurns. I crumple the best gurns!" Trump muttered to himself as he typed. "Donald J. Trump learned the_twitter_audience is GULLIBLE. Wealth and riches, that's all that matters to me. Call me anytime!"
"I'm sorry?" Neil blinked. "You put him in The Sims?"
"Well done for recognising it, Andy-boy, I knew you were down with the kids," Edmonds smirked. "Specifically, it's The Sims 3, with all the expansion packs - we didn't think he rated paying for The Sims 4. And he hasn't noticed yet."
Mandel put his hand on Edmonds' arm urgently. "Wait - did you say all the expanansion packs?"
The door to Trump's room opened and a person emerged who appeared to be in the process of transforming into a werewolf.
"Edmonds, you fool, now he'll know it's not the real world!" Mandel complained.
Trump glared at the werewolf, then turned back to his computer. "Useless border guard letting werewolves into our country!" he typed. "Lyin' Xi Jinping and his wolf warrior diplomacy - werewolves invented by and for the Chinese! Sad!"
"OK, maybe we're fine," Mandel conceded.
"Told you," Edmonds said, unruffled. "Now, everyone is the same height in here, so as long as he doesn't run into Luther Strange, we're OK."
"What do you plan to do if he never notices that isn't the real world?" Neil asked.
"Well, if we need to escalate things, we could always put him in that nine-tenths scale White House we talked about," Edmonds suggested.
"And if that doesn't work, hey, at least there's syndication reruns," Mandel added.
Neil shook his head. "Very well. Of course, there is a question of ethics here..."
"WHY WON'T THE RULES LET ME WOOHOO IVANKA?" Trump complained in all caps. "I HAVE THE BEST WOOHOOS! THE RULES SHOULDN'T APPLY TO ME!"
"...never mind," Neil conceded.
The screen faded to black.
Rich (BB code):
CA-37
Lib 140,265 50.8%
Prog 96,356 34.9%
Nat 16,624 6%
All 12,905 4.7%
Fus 9,984 3.6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 276,134
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib
Rich (BB code):
CA-41
Lib 67,551 32.6%
Prog 58,646 28.3%
Nat 52,198 25.2%
Fus 16,328 7.9%
All 12,238 5.9%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 206,961
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Nat
Rich (BB code):
CA-38
Lib 91,998 37.1%
Prog 74,226 29.9%
Nat 46,739 18.8%
Fus 21,294 8.6%
All 13,967 5.6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 248,224
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Nat
Rich (BB code):
CA-50
Nat 131,044 44.7%
Prog 58,681 20%
Lib 57,183 19.5%
Fus 28,778 9.8%
All 17,192 5.9%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 292,878
MCs elected:
Nat
Nat
Prog
Rich (BB code):
CA-49
Nat 106,767 34%
Lib 83,777 26.7%
Prog 75,304 24%
Fus 28,809 9.2%
All 19,354 6.2%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 314,011
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Prog"OK, five more results from California. 37th in northwest Los Angeles, very diverse, 41st, Inland Empire, 38th, LA and part of the OC, 50th, largish one east of San Diego, 49th, coastal area including the north of San Diego."
"Yes, we're being very light-touch here compared to previous states, but there's not a lot to talk about - just the same three parties in a different order each time."
"In fact we can already update the map..."
"That's 40 results down in California, or 120 seats, which as a reminder, is already more than any other state in the US, including Texas - and still more to go..."
I will check but they should all be on there - some were quite early before California started.
Not only are they both there, but I think have OR-03 twice - whoops...
42
"As we now await the final results, I understand Hillary Clinton of the Liberals will be making a statement shortly. As things currently stand, due to how things are playing out in California, the top three parties - the Liberals, Progressives and Nationals - are pulling ahead and even farther away from the remaining parties..."
"Five more results from California now."
"Another quick rundown...35th is in the Inland Empire again, includes a place called Ontario, insert Canada joke here...the 8th is a gigantic super-ginormous one including Death Valley and is pretty right-wing as you can see there...the 48th is along the coast of Orange County...the 7th is some of the suburbs of Sacramento in the north...and the 33rd is that one on the west side of LA with all the nice beaches. Well, some of them."
"Right. And then we've got even more California results. Anyone got any ideas how we can break up this sequence?"
There was a burst of static, followed by a slow-motion montage of Bernie Sanders skipping gleefully through a meadow of flowers with his older brother Larry in an Oxfordshire Green Party rosette, bluebirds landing upon their shoulders and singing, while accompanied by dreamy music.
The cameras abruptly went back to the studio.
"No, not really."
"And then it's the 55th district...what do you mean there's no 55th district? Curse my handwriting..."
"This is getting a bit tedious, isn't it? But we're nearly done now."
"Right, the 29th district, San Fernando valley north of LA; the 53rd - not the 55th - east of San Diego; the 2nd, top left hand corner, but takes in everything from the Golden Gate Bridge aaaaall the way up the coast, but surprisingly left-wing for such a huuuuge one; the 19th, San José south and east of San Francisco, and the 22nd, in the middle of the state near Fresno."
"How many more for California?"
"Just three, thank goodness...and here they come now."
"OK! At last! Here we go! The 11th, east and north of Oakland! The 44th, in south-central LA! And finally, at long last, the 12th, in San Fran" (clicks fingers and points) "pchow!"
"Wh - why are you doing that?"
"That's what you say when you're hip 'n' happenin' - San Fran" (clicks fingers and points) "pchow!"
"Wh - you already said 'San Francisco' normally a dozen times earlier, for goodness sake."
"Spoilsport. Anyway, the 12th is also special because it is the home district of the Democrats' congressional leader under the old system, now a senior figure in the Liberal Party of course, and when we say senior - Nancy Pelosi."
Suddenly, the lights in the studio turned read and distant klaxons began sounding.
"Er..." Neil said worriedly, "a voice in my ear is telling me..."
The door burst open to admit John Sopel, who was pushing a wheelbarrow full of battered books, file folders, three-ring binders and loose sheets of paper with scribbles on them. "Orlright!" said Sopel, momentarily developing the accent of a Cockney costermonger from My Fair Lady. "Gitchore low-hangin' fruwit jokes 'eah!"
Sopel plucked books or papers out of the wheelbarrow and displayed them in turn. "We got John McCain vintage age jokes from two fousand an' eight wit' pronouns changed, bleedin' PC! We got references to 'er bein' in post since before Iraq wore! That Saddam 'Ussein, very clever man. We got contrived stuff about 'er family bein' Italian and some sort of tenuous link to Garibaldi and the 1860s! We got Egyptian sarcophagi - or Goa'uld ones if that don't clash wit' that Wesley Clark bit from earlier! Shat it, you lot!" he added when Neil tried to interrupt. "Of course some brainbox decided to use the Wonka-Vite gag on Ruth Bader Ginsburg, wotta plonker! Strike a light! Orlright, owzabout bait an' switch 'uns about 'er Majesty the Queen, eh? Grey-'aired old womman who's been in post longer then anyone expected, eh? Eh?"
"We can't do that one for two reasons!" Neil snapped. "Look, shat it - I mean, shut up, will you? A voice in my ear has just told me we can't do any jokes about Nancy Pelosi now because it'd be bad taste! The timing is really bad!"
"Aw, bleedin' eck," Sopel said, clearly upset. "Who writes this crap anyhow?"
(CUT TO: INT - AEROPLANE COMING INTO JFK AIRPORT. CAPTION: APRIL 2001.
YOUNG THANDE is looking out of the window at the New York skyline under a swift sunrise.
CAPTION: "TRUE STORY"
CUT TO: BACK TO THE STUDIO)
Jeremy Vine was now holding up a cue card on which the words "SEVERAL HOURS LATER" were written, and was wearing an unconvincing false beard to imply the passage of time.
"Well, as the polls finally - finally - have closed across the Pacific, we can now bring you the very last results."
"What about California's statewide seats and full map?"
"Shit, I forgot!"
"Just as we saw in each district, three parties in contention and everyone else nowhere close...but the Liberals pulled off a convincing victory regardless. Of course, one quirk of this new system, carried over from the old Senate, is that each state gets two top-up seats whether it's as large as California or as small as, say, Delaware."
"And that final map..."
"California has elected 70 Liberals, 52 Progressives and 39 Nationals - for contrast, Texas only elected 9 Nationals, New York elected 17 and Florida elected 20. Just those three parties, no more. That huge state, all those districts, and just three colours - orange, green and blue. Quite a contrast to the rainbows we've seen elsewhere"
"But, to be fair, before all tonight all American election maps only had two colours on them."
"True."
"Oh, and there's the result from Alaska. A very large state geographically, but not in terms of population - though not the smallest either, there are at least three states smaller in population, to say so much of the state is inhospitable."
"A significant portion of the state is made up of indigenous peoples as well. Well, usually Alaska is a fairly reliable Republican stronghold, I mean it was under the old system. Here, though, while the Liberals have done poorly - behind the Alliance! but then, Alaska was always thought of as fairly third-party friendly even before - the Progressives have done very well, and have easily won the top seat. The Constitution Party and Nationals have taken the other two, so more right-wing seats per se, but then there's the top-ups..."
"So overall Alaska elects three Progressives, one Constitution Party MC and one National. A contrast to the state's usual reputation, and revealing how much this new voting system has changed matters."
"With us totally now having the Pacific polls closed, we also have the final results from the very last state, the island chain of Hawaii, which was reliably Democratic under the old system..."
"Hawaii has two districts - the first takes in just the city of Honolulu and the densely inhabited area of the island of Oahu, while the other is the entire rest of the island chain. One seat for the Liberals in the first district, but otherwise, these islands are showing themselves to be a stronghold for the Progressive Party - perhaps somewhat unexpectedly. More ammunition for Mr Sanders' party in any coalition negotiations."
"Yes, speaking of which - but first, the top-up seats and the map..."
"Of course the top-ups also easily go to the Progressive Party, so overall Hawaii elects seven Progressives, just one Liberal and nobody else."
"And that means our balancesheet is completed. The final total of seats in the new American Congress of 1410 seats is..."
"Four hundred and seventy-nine Liberals, 34% of the total. Remember, no party has a majority, so there will need to be a coalition that gets to over 50%. The Nationals have three hundred and thirty-two seats, or 22%. The Progressives are just behind them with three hundred and eleven seats, 21% - I'm rounding here, it's much closer than it sounds. The Constitution Party has one hundred and thirty seats, 9%. The Conservatives have one hundred and seventeen seats, 8%. Thirty-six seats, or 3%, are won by Fusion candidates endorsed by both the Conservatives and Constitution Party. And finally, five seats, about one-third of a percent, are won by the Alliance Party."
"Breathe, Jeremy! Let's go to Dan Snow, who's busy chiselling marble off the Great Pyramid, to ask him what those results would look like if only the top winner in each district mattered - i.e. if this was still pure first-past-the-post."
Snow glanced up guiltily from his chisel on the screen, then smiled. "Of course, Andrew! Well, if we only counted the first seat won in each district, plus one top-up for each state - so that's a total of 487 - the Liberals would have 205 seats or 42%, the Nationals would have 139 seats or 29%, the Progressives would have 73 seats or 15%, the Constitution Party would have 45 seats or 9%, the Conservatives would have 20 seats or 4%, and there would be 4 Fusion MCs and just one Alliance MC."
"So some parties have definitely benefited from this PR voting system more than others - the Progressives and Conservatives certainly have."
"Yes, though we shouldn't really call this pure PR, it's just more representative on the district level. Nationally speaking, the popular vote - and I've figured how to stop it counting the statewide vote totals twice - looks like this:
"That puts the Liberals on 27%, the Nationals on 22%, the Progressives on 21% - but I'm rounding like Jeremy did, and the Nationals and Progressives are actually very close - the Constitution and Conservative Parties on 10% each plus 5% cast for Fusion candidates, and 5% for the Alliance. So compared to the nationwide popular vote, which the seat numbers should map to in a true national-PR system as used in the Netherlands or Israel, for instance, this system has advantaged the Liberals, left the Nationals and Progressives essentially unchanged, slightly hurt the Conservatives and Constitution Party, and very much hurt the Alliance with their scattered votes. Under a pure PR system, the Alliance might have got over a hundred seats, not five."
"Fascinating. You do know something, Dan Snow."
Snow winked as the screen cut away to a giant CGI image of a hemicycle, filling up with coloured dots in the right proportions.
"This is the part I live for," Jeremy Vine said as he walked through the computer-generated passages between the seats. "So, we ask ourselves, what will the coalition negotiations be like? 706 seats will be needed for a majority. In terms of left and right blocs, the Liberals and Progressives together have 790 seats, which seems an obvious choice for a coalition, whereas the right-wing parties - assuming they would want to work together - have 615." The hemicycle coloured in appropriately. "That's the conventional wisdom, but..."
"I'll have to interrupt you there, Jeremy, as I understand we can now go live to Hillary Clinton..."
Clinton stood before a microphone, surrounded by happy-looking supporters. Oddly, the ceiling above her seemed to have been hastily fixed with a lot of duct tape. "We did it, everyone!" (cheers) "America has been changed - for good, double meaning! We have won - hang on, how many was it..." she pulled out a Blackberry, "I emailed it to myself...oh dangit, there's that 'send to all' button again...whatever," she threw it casually into the crowd and hit someone in a 'Preparation (For) H' T-shirt in the head, knocking them out, "we won the most seats! This will be a future with a woman in the driving seat."
Clinton nodded at the second round of cheers. "But because of this fairer new voting system, we can't govern alone. And for that reason, I'm going to make a full and frank offer to our Conservative colleagues so we can govern across the centre, delivering the bipartisan, moderate, centrist leadership that America deserv-"
The murmurs of discontent were cut off when Tim Kaine, his back covered in bloodied bandages, hastily jumped onto the stage. "Sorry...one moment...here, Your Blueness, have some nasty medicine." He administered a spoonful of something in a bottle to the surprised Clinton.
Clinton shook her head for a moment, her eyes wild, then turned back to the crowd. "I mean, obviously, we're going to reach out to Bernie Sanders' Progressives and HAVE THEM DESTR - I mean, agree a coalition arrangement with them, to be approved by Acting-President Biden as the informateur..."
"And there we have it," Andrew Neil said, speaking over the cheers as they resumed. "The future belongs to a Liberal-Progressive coalition, presuming, of course, Mr Sanders agrees. Er, Katty?"
"I understand Mr Sanders is already taking Mrs Clinton's call even now," Katty said, "but you could always interview that activist from New York Emily talked to earlier, she seems to have his ear..."
Maitlis teleported in. "Good idea!" she said without preamble. "I understand she's celebrating the result in a nightclub in the city. Andrew, are you ready?"
Neil took a deep breath. "Let's go."
A moment later, he found himself teleported to the doors of the club in question, with loud music unst unst unsting from within. A bouncer on the door looked at him sceptically. "We operate a reverse dress code in here, buddy," he said in a Brooklyn accent not dissimilar to Bernie Sanders'. "No suits."
"Ugh...fine," Neil complained. He took off his tie, suit jacket and shirt and passed them to a long-suffering Maitlis, then, casting an eye on a lost-property cupboard, and distastefully selected a white vest (or tanktop as Americans called them) and a baseball cap. "Happy?"
"OK," the bouncer said, ushering him through.
Neil looked around sceptically, heedless of the pulsating lights and loud music. "Now where is she..."
Blundering through the noise, he collided with Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez almost before realising it. She was also wearing a baseball cap, with 'Here's How Bernie Can Still Win' written on it, and a vest, though hers was black. "I'm sorry!" Neil gabbled, quickly reaching out to support her and keep her upright.
"What are you - wait, what's that voice?" AOC asked in confusion.
And, from the deeps of time, from the farthest reaches of the universe, from the cold infinity from which the wot of man could never escape, Neil heard those words:
"Dear Sir. I understand the political success of the movement of Mr Bernie Sanders in the United States has been attributed to the elderly Mr Sanders' achieving support from much younger activitists from diverse ethnic backgrounds. Do you perhaps have any photographic evidence of an older gentleman from the world of politics embracing youth and diversity?"
"Oh no," Neil said in a small voice as the camera flashed. "Not again!"
And then the world shattered into a thousand glittering fragments.
"Joe. Joe, wake up!"
"Five more results from California now."
Rich (BB code):
CA-35
Lib 69,294 36.7%
Prog 58,463 31%
Nat 36,356 19.3%
Fus 14,466 7.7%
All 10,032 5.3%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 188,611
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Nat
Rich (BB code):
CA-08
Nat 105,615 45.4%
Lib 48,935 21%
Prog 43,299 18.6%
Fus 21,849 9.4%
All 13,137 5.6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 232,835
MCs elected:
Nat
Nat
Lib
Rich (BB code):
CA-48
Nat 113,699 35.8%
Lib 81,623 25.7%
Prog 70,412 22.2%
Fus 32,896 10.4%
All 18,698 5.9%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 317,328
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Prog
Rich (BB code):
CA-07
Nat 93,373 30.7%
Lib 88,457 29.1%
Prog 70,609 23.2%
Fus 30,876 10.2%
All 20,803 6.8%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 304,118
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Prog
Rich (BB code):
CA-33
Lib 139,574 39.4%
Prog 100,408 28.4%
Nat 64,648 18.3%
Fus 29,058 8.2%
All 20,209 5.7%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 353,897
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib"Another quick rundown...35th is in the Inland Empire again, includes a place called Ontario, insert Canada joke here...the 8th is a gigantic super-ginormous one including Death Valley and is pretty right-wing as you can see there...the 48th is along the coast of Orange County...the 7th is some of the suburbs of Sacramento in the north...and the 33rd is that one on the west side of LA with all the nice beaches. Well, some of them."
"Right. And then we've got even more California results. Anyone got any ideas how we can break up this sequence?"
There was a burst of static, followed by a slow-motion montage of Bernie Sanders skipping gleefully through a meadow of flowers with his older brother Larry in an Oxfordshire Green Party rosette, bluebirds landing upon their shoulders and singing, while accompanied by dreamy music.
The cameras abruptly went back to the studio.
"No, not really."
Rich (BB code):
CA-29
Lib 78,740 40.1%
Prog 73,777 37.6%
Nat 22,722 11.6%
All 10,716 5.5%
Fus 10,241 5.2%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 196,196
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib"And then it's the 55th district...what do you mean there's no 55th district? Curse my handwriting..."
Rich (BB code):
CA-53
Lib 102,946 33.2%
Prog 97,291 31.3%
Nat 69,260 22.3%
Fus 22,562 7.3%
All 18,314 5.9%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 310,373
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Nat
Rich (BB code):
CA-02
Prog 127,255 36.9%
Lib 110,902 32.1%
Nat 56,352 16.3%
All 26,269 7.6%
Fus 24,193 7%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 344,971
MCs elected:
Prog
Lib
Prog
Rich (BB code):
CA-19
Lib 106,431 41.3%
Prog 81,397 31.6%
Nat 36,963 14.3%
Fus 18,408 7.1%
All 14,425 5.6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 257,624
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib
Rich (BB code):
CA-22
Nat 97,318 40.5%
Lib 56,901 23.7%
Prog 45,391 18.9%
Fus 27,771 11.6%
All 12,756 5.3%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 240,137
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Nat"This is getting a bit tedious, isn't it? But we're nearly done now."
"Right, the 29th district, San Fernando valley north of LA; the 53rd - not the 55th - east of San Diego; the 2nd, top left hand corner, but takes in everything from the Golden Gate Bridge aaaaall the way up the coast, but surprisingly left-wing for such a huuuuge one; the 19th, San José south and east of San Francisco, and the 22nd, in the middle of the state near Fresno."
"How many more for California?"
"Just three, thank goodness...and here they come now."
Rich (BB code):
CA-11
Lib 127,804 40.9%
Prog 95,755 30.6%
Nat 47,104 15.1%
Fus 23,765 7.6%
All 18,140 5.8%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 312,568
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib
Rich (BB code):
CA-44
Lib 95,132 48.1%
Prog 69,119 34.9%
Nat 16,334 8.3%
All 9,290 4.7%
Fus 7,927 4%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 197,802
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib
Rich (BB code):
CA-12
Lib 166,467 46.4%
Prog 142,754 39.8%
All 18,395 5.1%
Nat 18,285 5.1%
Fus 12,873 3.6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 358,774
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Lib"OK! At last! Here we go! The 11th, east and north of Oakland! The 44th, in south-central LA! And finally, at long last, the 12th, in San Fran" (clicks fingers and points) "pchow!"
"Wh - why are you doing that?"
"That's what you say when you're hip 'n' happenin' - San Fran" (clicks fingers and points) "pchow!"
"Wh - you already said 'San Francisco' normally a dozen times earlier, for goodness sake."
"Spoilsport. Anyway, the 12th is also special because it is the home district of the Democrats' congressional leader under the old system, now a senior figure in the Liberal Party of course, and when we say senior - Nancy Pelosi."
Suddenly, the lights in the studio turned read and distant klaxons began sounding.
"Er..." Neil said worriedly, "a voice in my ear is telling me..."
The door burst open to admit John Sopel, who was pushing a wheelbarrow full of battered books, file folders, three-ring binders and loose sheets of paper with scribbles on them. "Orlright!" said Sopel, momentarily developing the accent of a Cockney costermonger from My Fair Lady. "Gitchore low-hangin' fruwit jokes 'eah!"
Sopel plucked books or papers out of the wheelbarrow and displayed them in turn. "We got John McCain vintage age jokes from two fousand an' eight wit' pronouns changed, bleedin' PC! We got references to 'er bein' in post since before Iraq wore! That Saddam 'Ussein, very clever man. We got contrived stuff about 'er family bein' Italian and some sort of tenuous link to Garibaldi and the 1860s! We got Egyptian sarcophagi - or Goa'uld ones if that don't clash wit' that Wesley Clark bit from earlier! Shat it, you lot!" he added when Neil tried to interrupt. "Of course some brainbox decided to use the Wonka-Vite gag on Ruth Bader Ginsburg, wotta plonker! Strike a light! Orlright, owzabout bait an' switch 'uns about 'er Majesty the Queen, eh? Grey-'aired old womman who's been in post longer then anyone expected, eh? Eh?"
"We can't do that one for two reasons!" Neil snapped. "Look, shat it - I mean, shut up, will you? A voice in my ear has just told me we can't do any jokes about Nancy Pelosi now because it'd be bad taste! The timing is really bad!"
"Aw, bleedin' eck," Sopel said, clearly upset. "Who writes this crap anyhow?"
(CUT TO: INT - AEROPLANE COMING INTO JFK AIRPORT. CAPTION: APRIL 2001.
YOUNG THANDE is looking out of the window at the New York skyline under a swift sunrise.
YOUNG THANDE
Chuff me, when this plane was redirected from an Atlanta hub change to New York,
first time I've ever seen t'iconic city, I thought I'd get a glimpse of some of
t'iconic sights that go with it.
THANDE'S MATE BRAD
Yes, I know, I was here, you don't have to exposit it.
YOUNG THANDE
(ignoring this)
But from this angle I can't see the Statue of Liberty at all!
All I can see are those bloody stupid boxy modern-architecture World Trade Towers getting in the way!
What a boring piece of forgettable rubbish! Somebody should knock them down!
Chuff me, when this plane was redirected from an Atlanta hub change to New York,
first time I've ever seen t'iconic city, I thought I'd get a glimpse of some of
t'iconic sights that go with it.
THANDE'S MATE BRAD
Yes, I know, I was here, you don't have to exposit it.
YOUNG THANDE
(ignoring this)
But from this angle I can't see the Statue of Liberty at all!
All I can see are those bloody stupid boxy modern-architecture World Trade Towers getting in the way!
What a boring piece of forgettable rubbish! Somebody should knock them down!
CAPTION: "TRUE STORY"
CUT TO: BACK TO THE STUDIO)
Jeremy Vine was now holding up a cue card on which the words "SEVERAL HOURS LATER" were written, and was wearing an unconvincing false beard to imply the passage of time.
"Well, as the polls finally - finally - have closed across the Pacific, we can now bring you the very last results."
"What about California's statewide seats and full map?"
"Shit, I forgot!"
Rich (BB code):
California at-large
Lib 4,707,557 33.5%
Prog 4,044,932 28.8%
Nat 3,350,374 23.8%
Fus 1,133,113 8.1%
All 823,216 5.9%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 14,059,192
MCs elected:
Lib
Lib"Just as we saw in each district, three parties in contention and everyone else nowhere close...but the Liberals pulled off a convincing victory regardless. Of course, one quirk of this new system, carried over from the old Senate, is that each state gets two top-up seats whether it's as large as California or as small as, say, Delaware."
"And that final map..."
"California has elected 70 Liberals, 52 Progressives and 39 Nationals - for contrast, Texas only elected 9 Nationals, New York elected 17 and Florida elected 20. Just those three parties, no more. That huge state, all those districts, and just three colours - orange, green and blue. Quite a contrast to the rainbows we've seen elsewhere"
"But, to be fair, before all tonight all American election maps only had two colours on them."
"True."
Rich (BB code):
AK-00
Prog 92,883 30%
Cst 66,674 21.5%
Nat 61,545 19.9%
Con 35,169 11.4%
All 29,566 9.6%
Lib 23,571 7.6%
Fus 0 0%
Total 309,407
MCs elected:
Prog
Cst
Nat"Oh, and there's the result from Alaska. A very large state geographically, but not in terms of population - though not the smallest either, there are at least three states smaller in population, to say so much of the state is inhospitable."
"A significant portion of the state is made up of indigenous peoples as well. Well, usually Alaska is a fairly reliable Republican stronghold, I mean it was under the old system. Here, though, while the Liberals have done poorly - behind the Alliance! but then, Alaska was always thought of as fairly third-party friendly even before - the Progressives have done very well, and have easily won the top seat. The Constitution Party and Nationals have taken the other two, so more right-wing seats per se, but then there's the top-ups..."
Rich (BB code):
Alaska at-large
Prog 92,883 30%
Cst 66,674 21.5%
Nat 61,545 19.9%
Con 35,169 11.4%
All 29,566 9.6%
Lib 23,571 7.6%
Fus 0 0%
Total 309,407
MCs elected:
Prog
Prog"So overall Alaska elects three Progressives, one Constitution Party MC and one National. A contrast to the state's usual reputation, and revealing how much this new voting system has changed matters."
"With us totally now having the Pacific polls closed, we also have the final results from the very last state, the island chain of Hawaii, which was reliably Democratic under the old system..."
Rich (BB code):
HI-01
Prog 81,564 39%
Lib 50,445 24.1%
Nat 27,597 13.2%
Cst 21,076 10.1%
Con 15,243 7.3%
All 13,375 6.4%
Fus 0 0%
Total 209,300
MCs elected:
Prog
Lib
Prog
Rich (BB code):
HI-02
Prog 101,260 46.1%
Lib 33,622 15.3%
Nat 28,913 13.2%
Cst 21,008 9.6%
All 19,824 9%
Con 15,010 6.8%
Fus 0 0%
Total 219,637
MCs elected:
Prog
Prog
Prog"Hawaii has two districts - the first takes in just the city of Honolulu and the densely inhabited area of the island of Oahu, while the other is the entire rest of the island chain. One seat for the Liberals in the first district, but otherwise, these islands are showing themselves to be a stronghold for the Progressive Party - perhaps somewhat unexpectedly. More ammunition for Mr Sanders' party in any coalition negotiations."
"Yes, speaking of which - but first, the top-up seats and the map..."
Rich (BB code):
Hawaii
Prog 182,824 42.6%
Lib 84,067 19.6%
Nat 56,510 13.2%
Cst 42,084 9.8%
All 33,199 7.7%
Con 30,253 7.1%
Fus 0 0%
Total 428,937
MCs elected:
Prog
Prog"Of course the top-ups also easily go to the Progressive Party, so overall Hawaii elects seven Progressives, just one Liberal and nobody else."
"And that means our balancesheet is completed. The final total of seats in the new American Congress of 1410 seats is..."
Rich (BB code):
479 Lib
332 Nat
311 Prog
130 Cst
117 Con
36 Fus
5 All"Four hundred and seventy-nine Liberals, 34% of the total. Remember, no party has a majority, so there will need to be a coalition that gets to over 50%. The Nationals have three hundred and thirty-two seats, or 22%. The Progressives are just behind them with three hundred and eleven seats, 21% - I'm rounding here, it's much closer than it sounds. The Constitution Party has one hundred and thirty seats, 9%. The Conservatives have one hundred and seventeen seats, 8%. Thirty-six seats, or 3%, are won by Fusion candidates endorsed by both the Conservatives and Constitution Party. And finally, five seats, about one-third of a percent, are won by the Alliance Party."
"Breathe, Jeremy! Let's go to Dan Snow, who's busy chiselling marble off the Great Pyramid, to ask him what those results would look like if only the top winner in each district mattered - i.e. if this was still pure first-past-the-post."
Snow glanced up guiltily from his chisel on the screen, then smiled. "Of course, Andrew! Well, if we only counted the first seat won in each district, plus one top-up for each state - so that's a total of 487 - the Liberals would have 205 seats or 42%, the Nationals would have 139 seats or 29%, the Progressives would have 73 seats or 15%, the Constitution Party would have 45 seats or 9%, the Conservatives would have 20 seats or 4%, and there would be 4 Fusion MCs and just one Alliance MC."
"So some parties have definitely benefited from this PR voting system more than others - the Progressives and Conservatives certainly have."
"Yes, though we shouldn't really call this pure PR, it's just more representative on the district level. Nationally speaking, the popular vote - and I've figured how to stop it counting the statewide vote totals twice - looks like this:
Rich (BB code):
36,602,008 Lib
29,088,766 Nat
29,252,228 Prog
13,517,913 Cst
13,182,705 Con
7,190,300 Fus
6,883,353 All"That puts the Liberals on 27%, the Nationals on 22%, the Progressives on 21% - but I'm rounding like Jeremy did, and the Nationals and Progressives are actually very close - the Constitution and Conservative Parties on 10% each plus 5% cast for Fusion candidates, and 5% for the Alliance. So compared to the nationwide popular vote, which the seat numbers should map to in a true national-PR system as used in the Netherlands or Israel, for instance, this system has advantaged the Liberals, left the Nationals and Progressives essentially unchanged, slightly hurt the Conservatives and Constitution Party, and very much hurt the Alliance with their scattered votes. Under a pure PR system, the Alliance might have got over a hundred seats, not five."
"Fascinating. You do know something, Dan Snow."
Snow winked as the screen cut away to a giant CGI image of a hemicycle, filling up with coloured dots in the right proportions.
"This is the part I live for," Jeremy Vine said as he walked through the computer-generated passages between the seats. "So, we ask ourselves, what will the coalition negotiations be like? 706 seats will be needed for a majority. In terms of left and right blocs, the Liberals and Progressives together have 790 seats, which seems an obvious choice for a coalition, whereas the right-wing parties - assuming they would want to work together - have 615." The hemicycle coloured in appropriately. "That's the conventional wisdom, but..."
"I'll have to interrupt you there, Jeremy, as I understand we can now go live to Hillary Clinton..."
Clinton stood before a microphone, surrounded by happy-looking supporters. Oddly, the ceiling above her seemed to have been hastily fixed with a lot of duct tape. "We did it, everyone!" (cheers) "America has been changed - for good, double meaning! We have won - hang on, how many was it..." she pulled out a Blackberry, "I emailed it to myself...oh dangit, there's that 'send to all' button again...whatever," she threw it casually into the crowd and hit someone in a 'Preparation (For) H' T-shirt in the head, knocking them out, "we won the most seats! This will be a future with a woman in the driving seat."
Clinton nodded at the second round of cheers. "But because of this fairer new voting system, we can't govern alone. And for that reason, I'm going to make a full and frank offer to our Conservative colleagues so we can govern across the centre, delivering the bipartisan, moderate, centrist leadership that America deserv-"
The murmurs of discontent were cut off when Tim Kaine, his back covered in bloodied bandages, hastily jumped onto the stage. "Sorry...one moment...here, Your Blueness, have some nasty medicine." He administered a spoonful of something in a bottle to the surprised Clinton.
Clinton shook her head for a moment, her eyes wild, then turned back to the crowd. "I mean, obviously, we're going to reach out to Bernie Sanders' Progressives and HAVE THEM DESTR - I mean, agree a coalition arrangement with them, to be approved by Acting-President Biden as the informateur..."
"And there we have it," Andrew Neil said, speaking over the cheers as they resumed. "The future belongs to a Liberal-Progressive coalition, presuming, of course, Mr Sanders agrees. Er, Katty?"
"I understand Mr Sanders is already taking Mrs Clinton's call even now," Katty said, "but you could always interview that activist from New York Emily talked to earlier, she seems to have his ear..."
Maitlis teleported in. "Good idea!" she said without preamble. "I understand she's celebrating the result in a nightclub in the city. Andrew, are you ready?"
Neil took a deep breath. "Let's go."
A moment later, he found himself teleported to the doors of the club in question, with loud music unst unst unsting from within. A bouncer on the door looked at him sceptically. "We operate a reverse dress code in here, buddy," he said in a Brooklyn accent not dissimilar to Bernie Sanders'. "No suits."
"Ugh...fine," Neil complained. He took off his tie, suit jacket and shirt and passed them to a long-suffering Maitlis, then, casting an eye on a lost-property cupboard, and distastefully selected a white vest (or tanktop as Americans called them) and a baseball cap. "Happy?"
"OK," the bouncer said, ushering him through.
Neil looked around sceptically, heedless of the pulsating lights and loud music. "Now where is she..."
Blundering through the noise, he collided with Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez almost before realising it. She was also wearing a baseball cap, with 'Here's How Bernie Can Still Win' written on it, and a vest, though hers was black. "I'm sorry!" Neil gabbled, quickly reaching out to support her and keep her upright.
"What are you - wait, what's that voice?" AOC asked in confusion.
And, from the deeps of time, from the farthest reaches of the universe, from the cold infinity from which the wot of man could never escape, Neil heard those words:
"Dear Sir. I understand the political success of the movement of Mr Bernie Sanders in the United States has been attributed to the elderly Mr Sanders' achieving support from much younger activitists from diverse ethnic backgrounds. Do you perhaps have any photographic evidence of an older gentleman from the world of politics embracing youth and diversity?"
"Oh no," Neil said in a small voice as the camera flashed. "Not again!"
And then the world shattered into a thousand glittering fragments.
"Joe. Joe, wake up!"
Epilogue
EPILOGUE
The White House, Washington DC
January 22nd 2009
"Wake up, Joe!"
Vice-President Joe Biden opened his eyes, blinking the sleep-sand from them.
"Uh...sorry, Bar - Mr President - I seem to have dozed off there."
Obama laughed. "No problem, Joe. It's been a long day. But at some point I'm going to have to ask you to vacate my couch."
Biden looked around the Oval Office from his awkward perch on the couch, then grinned. "Sure. Say, did you put that Kenyan artefact away? I changed my mind, I think it'd look kinda nice in the corner."
"The corner? Of the Oval Office?" Obama said, putting on a mock frown.
"Oh, you know what I mean." Biden shook his head. "That was a weird dream." He sighed. "Y'know, if our presidency was more ceremonial, the way it is in some countries, who d'you think they would get to do it?"
"Mr Rogers," Obama said instantly. "If he was still alive, that is. Not sure these days."
"No," Biden agreed. "Feels like nobody can appeal to everyone without someone getting mad." He sighed again. "I dreamed we'd changed it, and they asked me to do it, temporarily, because your term limit had ran out. Some aged harmless old dude, warming a chair. That's the only way I'm every getting into that chair, I guess."
"Don't count on it," Obama grunted. "Some wacko might still take a shot at me and put you here."
Biden opened his eyes in shock. "That's not what I meant and you know it...Mr President." But Obama's words encouraged him not to be so self-pitying. "You're right, though. Never mind if they think I'm too past it for the presidency these days. The presidency ain't everything. I know the Senate."
"That's one reason why you're here," Obama agreed. "Now, no more business for today, unless we can avoid it - but before too long, we're putting together our action plan for how to get healthcare reform through Congress."
Biden nodded. "Right. Healthcare."
But sometimes, later, he did wonder.
The White House, Washington DC
January 22nd 2009
"Wake up, Joe!"
Vice-President Joe Biden opened his eyes, blinking the sleep-sand from them.
"Uh...sorry, Bar - Mr President - I seem to have dozed off there."
Obama laughed. "No problem, Joe. It's been a long day. But at some point I'm going to have to ask you to vacate my couch."
Biden looked around the Oval Office from his awkward perch on the couch, then grinned. "Sure. Say, did you put that Kenyan artefact away? I changed my mind, I think it'd look kinda nice in the corner."
"The corner? Of the Oval Office?" Obama said, putting on a mock frown.
"Oh, you know what I mean." Biden shook his head. "That was a weird dream." He sighed. "Y'know, if our presidency was more ceremonial, the way it is in some countries, who d'you think they would get to do it?"
"Mr Rogers," Obama said instantly. "If he was still alive, that is. Not sure these days."
"No," Biden agreed. "Feels like nobody can appeal to everyone without someone getting mad." He sighed again. "I dreamed we'd changed it, and they asked me to do it, temporarily, because your term limit had ran out. Some aged harmless old dude, warming a chair. That's the only way I'm every getting into that chair, I guess."
"Don't count on it," Obama grunted. "Some wacko might still take a shot at me and put you here."
Biden opened his eyes in shock. "That's not what I meant and you know it...Mr President." But Obama's words encouraged him not to be so self-pitying. "You're right, though. Never mind if they think I'm too past it for the presidency these days. The presidency ain't everything. I know the Senate."
"That's one reason why you're here," Obama agreed. "Now, no more business for today, unless we can avoid it - but before too long, we're putting together our action plan for how to get healthcare reform through Congress."
Biden nodded. "Right. Healthcare."
But sometimes, later, he did wonder.
THE END
I hope you've all enjoyed this timeline. As I said in the OP, I started work on this way back in January 2020, even before (we knew that) the pandemic started. It was originally all just done on the state level, but that seemed uninterestingly simplistic. Later on in 2020, I worked out how to do it on the congressional district level, and introduced the PR idea - even though that does somewhat contradict the gimmick of 'British-like election night'. Still, it's more interesting given the source material. But for ages I couldn't figure out how to do the interstitial stuff and US politics still seemed too visceral to do jokes about Trump etc. It's only recently that I finally decided to go ahead with it, encouraged by comments when I mentioned it on my graphics thread.
Without further ado, a note on where the data comes from. In these ASB election nights, I always try to use real data, as unedited as possible, because I want to tell a story that gives some insight into real, hidden politics of a place. "Partying Like It's 1999" was the platonic ideal because those really were the votes, cast in those constituencies, on that day, in 1999 - it's just they were cast in a PR euro-election with a shockingly low turnout, so seem disturbing when fitted to Parliament. My follow-up "The Kippery Slope" was not as good because I didn't have access to the raw counts from 2014, so they were adjusted through an imperfect algorithm and didn't really reflect the reality of how people voted on the day. This one is somewhere in between; there's a bit of editing, but it still reflects how people actually voted.
Let me explain.
The 2016 election in the US is very unusual because both parties had heavily contested primaries and the contest lingered almost entirely to the end. 2008 is the closest other example in recent years, and in that case McCain really became the Republican frontrunner too soon to work. Primary fights in the US are fascinating because they are the closest thing one sees to the kind of divergence of opinion seen in multi-party systems - sometimes they're just fought on someone's profile or local connections, of course, but also a breadth of ideology can come into it, in a way not seen in the 'vote for X because I hate Y more' attitude mostly seen in the zero-sum game of the two-party general election. Presidential primaries are also national fights, if artificially affected by the fact that states don't cast their votes all at once, whereas primary fights for individual congressional districts etc. can be much more local (though still affected by national factors). The way Trump and Sanders both transformed politics in 2016 by building national movements of opinion which shocked the mainstream leadership of the Republicans and Democrats respectively - all of this is a recipe for providing the groundwork for imagining what a US multi-party system would be like.
All of that wouldn't mean much without data, but then I got data. More accurately, Daily Kos got data. Like the Guardian, any opinions about their editorial positions are not relevant to making the nonpartisan judgement that both organs are excellent at getting hold of and presenting election data. Daily Kos has the presidential-election results by every congressional district, and even many state legislative districts. This gives one a good insight because the actual congressional and legislative elections are often full of unopposed returns or other factors (like re-electing known quantities in a low-information election) that corrupt an attempt to gauge a true picture of a region's partisan loyalties. Importantly, though, Daily Kos (like the Dave Leip US election atlas forum members) also have a fascination with collecting presidential primary data by congressional district. Why, I have no idea. Maybe just because it makes pretty maps. Some states do assign their delegates by CD but - anyway, it doesn't matter. Almost every state did collect primary data by CD, but there were a few oddities, such as Colorado and Minnesota (best state, why do you betray us) that I had to justify in the text.
Now you can't just compare the primary votes, because the way the parties and states organise the primaries are different - open vs closed primary, caucus, etc. - which means the votes actually cast can be wildly different and/or not even recorded. But what they do consistently record is percentages. Therefore, what I did was to take the number of raw votes cast for Clinton or Trump on general election day 2016 in each district, and then split it into 2 or 3 groups based on the percentages cast in the primary.
So for example, imagine a district where Trump got 20k votes and Clinton got 30k votes on election day 2016. But in the primaries held in that state months earlier, in that district Trump got 50% of the Republican primary vote, Cruz got 30%, Rubio got 10% and Kasich got 10%. Meanwhile Clinton got 60% and Sanders got 40% of the Democratic primary vote. Therefore, I would give 50% of 20k = 10k votes to the National Party (Trump), 30% of 20k = 6k votes to the Constitution Party (Cruz) and 10+10=20% of 20k = 5k votes to the Conservative Party (Rubio, Kasich and sometimes other candidates earlier on - representing the Republican 'mainstream'). I would also give 60% of 30k = 18k votes to the Liberals (Clinton, Democratic mainstream) and 40% of 30k = 12k votes to the Progressives (Sanders, Democratic insurgency). Any third party votes were combined to make the Alliance. I did consider doing something clever like giving Green votes to the Progressives and old Constitution Party votes to Cruz's new one - but even I forget just how incredibly irrelevant American third parties are, and it really was not worth the effort, it would have changed almost nothing. I thought it would be more thought-provoking to combine all the third parties together and show just how irrelevant they are, even in an election like 2016 which favoured them due to people disliking both Clinton and Trump, even in an artificial PR system where their opponents are split up. No Greens, no Libertarians, even when their votes are combined. Even in New Mexico, Gary Johnson gets nothing. Only Evan McMullin's campaign actually put the Alliance Party on the map.
That's how I came up with the numbers, and I thought it worked rather well for the most part. The only fly in the ointment was that, though Sanders' supporters commendably kept fighting right up to the end to prove a point, the Republicans gave up with Trump and several states - unfortunately including the huge California - didn't really have a meaningful Republican contest. For these states I combined the Constitution and Conservative votes to make the Fusion Party, but even then it was usually irrelevant. (I did consider just having Trump vs all other Republicans, but then the results in other states would look implausible, and I felt it was inaccurate to describe Cruz's votes as going for the Republican mainstream, given how he was seen at the time). That's slightly disappointing - in a 'proper' PR election you'd probably expect to see Conservatives in California and New York for instance. There's also a few much more minor things built on the timescale (e.g. Nebraska vs Kansas as @Caprice predicted, North Carolina is better for Sanders and Cruz than it probably 'should' be with a single election day) but those are much less noticeable. Considering the time range of the primaries, I actually find it quite impressive that you can see apparent national trends like Trump's appeal visibly going across Appalachia into multiple states that voted weeks or months apart.
Anyway, that's basically all there is to it. I'll post some more maps and stuff in time, but below are 2 nationwide maps of just the top party in every district, shaded and solid colour, which should give a nice national picture. I hope you enjoyed it!
Without further ado, a note on where the data comes from. In these ASB election nights, I always try to use real data, as unedited as possible, because I want to tell a story that gives some insight into real, hidden politics of a place. "Partying Like It's 1999" was the platonic ideal because those really were the votes, cast in those constituencies, on that day, in 1999 - it's just they were cast in a PR euro-election with a shockingly low turnout, so seem disturbing when fitted to Parliament. My follow-up "The Kippery Slope" was not as good because I didn't have access to the raw counts from 2014, so they were adjusted through an imperfect algorithm and didn't really reflect the reality of how people voted on the day. This one is somewhere in between; there's a bit of editing, but it still reflects how people actually voted.
Let me explain.
The 2016 election in the US is very unusual because both parties had heavily contested primaries and the contest lingered almost entirely to the end. 2008 is the closest other example in recent years, and in that case McCain really became the Republican frontrunner too soon to work. Primary fights in the US are fascinating because they are the closest thing one sees to the kind of divergence of opinion seen in multi-party systems - sometimes they're just fought on someone's profile or local connections, of course, but also a breadth of ideology can come into it, in a way not seen in the 'vote for X because I hate Y more' attitude mostly seen in the zero-sum game of the two-party general election. Presidential primaries are also national fights, if artificially affected by the fact that states don't cast their votes all at once, whereas primary fights for individual congressional districts etc. can be much more local (though still affected by national factors). The way Trump and Sanders both transformed politics in 2016 by building national movements of opinion which shocked the mainstream leadership of the Republicans and Democrats respectively - all of this is a recipe for providing the groundwork for imagining what a US multi-party system would be like.
All of that wouldn't mean much without data, but then I got data. More accurately, Daily Kos got data. Like the Guardian, any opinions about their editorial positions are not relevant to making the nonpartisan judgement that both organs are excellent at getting hold of and presenting election data. Daily Kos has the presidential-election results by every congressional district, and even many state legislative districts. This gives one a good insight because the actual congressional and legislative elections are often full of unopposed returns or other factors (like re-electing known quantities in a low-information election) that corrupt an attempt to gauge a true picture of a region's partisan loyalties. Importantly, though, Daily Kos (like the Dave Leip US election atlas forum members) also have a fascination with collecting presidential primary data by congressional district. Why, I have no idea. Maybe just because it makes pretty maps. Some states do assign their delegates by CD but - anyway, it doesn't matter. Almost every state did collect primary data by CD, but there were a few oddities, such as Colorado and Minnesota (best state, why do you betray us) that I had to justify in the text.
Now you can't just compare the primary votes, because the way the parties and states organise the primaries are different - open vs closed primary, caucus, etc. - which means the votes actually cast can be wildly different and/or not even recorded. But what they do consistently record is percentages. Therefore, what I did was to take the number of raw votes cast for Clinton or Trump on general election day 2016 in each district, and then split it into 2 or 3 groups based on the percentages cast in the primary.
So for example, imagine a district where Trump got 20k votes and Clinton got 30k votes on election day 2016. But in the primaries held in that state months earlier, in that district Trump got 50% of the Republican primary vote, Cruz got 30%, Rubio got 10% and Kasich got 10%. Meanwhile Clinton got 60% and Sanders got 40% of the Democratic primary vote. Therefore, I would give 50% of 20k = 10k votes to the National Party (Trump), 30% of 20k = 6k votes to the Constitution Party (Cruz) and 10+10=20% of 20k = 5k votes to the Conservative Party (Rubio, Kasich and sometimes other candidates earlier on - representing the Republican 'mainstream'). I would also give 60% of 30k = 18k votes to the Liberals (Clinton, Democratic mainstream) and 40% of 30k = 12k votes to the Progressives (Sanders, Democratic insurgency). Any third party votes were combined to make the Alliance. I did consider doing something clever like giving Green votes to the Progressives and old Constitution Party votes to Cruz's new one - but even I forget just how incredibly irrelevant American third parties are, and it really was not worth the effort, it would have changed almost nothing. I thought it would be more thought-provoking to combine all the third parties together and show just how irrelevant they are, even in an election like 2016 which favoured them due to people disliking both Clinton and Trump, even in an artificial PR system where their opponents are split up. No Greens, no Libertarians, even when their votes are combined. Even in New Mexico, Gary Johnson gets nothing. Only Evan McMullin's campaign actually put the Alliance Party on the map.
That's how I came up with the numbers, and I thought it worked rather well for the most part. The only fly in the ointment was that, though Sanders' supporters commendably kept fighting right up to the end to prove a point, the Republicans gave up with Trump and several states - unfortunately including the huge California - didn't really have a meaningful Republican contest. For these states I combined the Constitution and Conservative votes to make the Fusion Party, but even then it was usually irrelevant. (I did consider just having Trump vs all other Republicans, but then the results in other states would look implausible, and I felt it was inaccurate to describe Cruz's votes as going for the Republican mainstream, given how he was seen at the time). That's slightly disappointing - in a 'proper' PR election you'd probably expect to see Conservatives in California and New York for instance. There's also a few much more minor things built on the timescale (e.g. Nebraska vs Kansas as @Caprice predicted, North Carolina is better for Sanders and Cruz than it probably 'should' be with a single election day) but those are much less noticeable. Considering the time range of the primaries, I actually find it quite impressive that you can see apparent national trends like Trump's appeal visibly going across Appalachia into multiple states that voted weeks or months apart.
Anyway, that's basically all there is to it. I'll post some more maps and stuff in time, but below are 2 nationwide maps of just the top party in every district, shaded and solid colour, which should give a nice national picture. I hope you enjoyed it!
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