- Location
- Sheffield
- Pronouns
- she/her
My best guess is an African American-majority district in the Deep South? I think it was said that a lot of districts are still effectively gerrymandered, right?
-
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AMERICA DIVIDES: The Multi-Party US Election of 2016
- Thread starter Thande
- Start date
My best guess is an African American-majority district in the Deep South? I think it was said that a lot of districts are still effectively gerrymandered, right?
Steve Brinson
The possum is not OK. Neither are we.
- Location
- Brooklyn (originally Houston)
- Pronouns
- he/him
Yeah, I think that's right. I thought the rural districts like AL-07 were closer to 60-40, but I looked it up and Clinton won the district 70-29 that year - even if you shave off 10% of that vote for the Progressives I'm guessing that none of the right-wing parties are winning two-thirds of the right-wing vote. And places like GA-05 are even less competitive, though potentially with a stronger Prog vote.
- Location
- Sheffield
- Pronouns
- she/her
I think there's quite a few areas where it could happen yeah. The progressive vote in those seats will be very interesting. My hunch is that it might be particularly high in some of the more urban seats as you said, but the vibe of this election seems to be that the liberals do really, really, really well in - to paraphrase our commentators - BAME-majority seats. There's something to be said about that, I do recall the Sanders campaign having a blind spot with Black voters generally but with Southern Black voters specifically, and that might be something that's translating to progressive performance ITTL.
The results for the progs aren't that bad in the south, it seems like? They're getting cut off from a lot of seats but as relatively close 4th. They're not going to contest the liberal dominance of southern black voters but I think they should always have a niche there. In seats with very low right wing vote it's going to be really hard for them not to get a seat, I think.
That's my understanding of Dem demographics too - FPTP means this only achieves so many seats but now they're running the election under D'Thande Method
Something this format doesn't let us explore (because it would be entirely speculative rather than data driven) is how people would vote once freed from the fear of FPTP.
It's also interesting that the democrats split between left fringe and an establishment weighted to the right rather than left outsider/establishment/blue dogs considering how much we can observe the last ones voting at odds with the establishment trying to get a minimum program going. I guess it was less of a visible thing in the immediate post Obama era. If you ran that on the 2020 primary data it might emerge as a split (though Bloomberg isn't really that good a substitute for the likes of Manchin and Sinema, he's a different kind of right edge of the party I feel, and the fact the primary was kinda truncated would skew data).
It's also interesting that the democrats split between left fringe and an establishment weighted to the right rather than left outsider/establishment/blue dogs considering how much we can observe the last ones voting at odds with the establishment trying to get a minimum program going. I guess it was less of a visible thing in the immediate post Obama era. If you ran that on the 2020 primary data it might emerge as a split (though Bloomberg isn't really that good a substitute for the likes of Manchin and Sinema, he's a different kind of right edge of the party I feel, and the fact the primary was kinda truncated would skew data).
And that would be a massive change after this election: ideologies that Can't Win Here have won, which makes them worth voting for it if you believe it and not worth it as a 'protest vote' because they might actually win.
8
"But before we get to Katty's next party rundown, let's turn to some of the questions we've been getting from the viewers at home. Emily Maitlis is now standing beside a giant iPad - other touchscreen tablets are available - aren't you, Emily?"
A slightly ruffled-looking Maitlis nodded. "That's right, Andrew. As always, the viewers at home are seeking to contact us by calling in, sending SMS text messages via the Cellnet, and in one case a carrier pigeon from the Outer Hebrides containing a Ceefax letters page engraved on a single grain of rice. However, we have, of course, ignored all of these, because we all know that the only people we care about are those who post on Twitter. To that end, I have almost four questions here from the viewers at home. First of all, from user TungstenTexan, who writes: 'Every district so far has been split between more than one party - is it possible under hashtag you-ess election sixteen hashtag voting system for all three seats to go to one party?'"
"Well, is it? Jeremy?"
"It is certainly possible, Andrew, but it would require very high support for one party, and the support for the others to be split very granular...ly...is that a word? It is now! Uh, fragmented..."
"Could you explain more?"
"You'd have to go to one of our experts, even though, according to the Leader of the Conservative Party - our Conservative Party, I mean - we have apparently had enough of them. But in the meantime, we have our first result from the state of West Virginia."
"Well. Speak of the devil - other personifications of evil are available."
"...er, are they?"
"This is the BBC. As I was saying, the question from our metallic tweeter from the Lone Star State has been dramatically answered. Our first result from West Virginia, not merely the western part of Virginia, you understand, but a separate state..."
"Yes, well, from one metal to another, it's time to go over to one of our local native guides for the night, er, is that cute or offensive, anyway, it's Mr Nate Silver, who is speaking to us from his cryogenic capsule beneath Cheyenne Mountain. Mr Silver, can you explain this result?"
"Well, Andrew, the Cubs in the ninth inning scored a touchdown over the Packers, and because Lebron James was still in the sin-bin for smashing Michael Vick's face into the ice, there was a strike at home plate - Christian Pulisic's star play was foiled when he was knocked down by all ten pins--"
"No, I'm sorry, there may be some confusion, I was talking about the election."
"Oh - my apologies, I always get Michael Vick and Mitt Romney mixed up. Well, yes, West Virginia. This is a state that has been in economic decline for some time. Its industry is associated with coal mining, and the unions were powerful here, which tended to help the Democrats. But in recent years, both culture-war issues and views about climate change - which is itself a culture-war issue in some ways - have strongly trended the state towards Republicans. Mr Trump's declarations about talking about rebuilding American industry probably helped him here, whereas the Conservatives' laissez-faire approach, 'vulture capitalism' as it has been dubbed, has not seen much enthusiasm from these blue-coollar workers."
"That's fascinating - imagine if our disaffected coal mining areas started voting for the Tories, can you imagine. But can you explain why the voting system has given all three seats to Mr Trump's Nationals?"
"Well, as you guys from the BBC know, nobody in the world actually understands proportional representation voting systems, but I'll give it my best shot. See, think of it this way. The Nats get the first seat because they have the most votes. The formula then divides their starting number in two, but that's still higher than the second-placed party, the Progs, so the Nats get the second seat. Then it divides it in three, but that's still higher - so the last seat goes to them, too."
"All those numbers, amazing. So, as Jeremy said, it's not just that the, er, Nationals have a lot of support here, but that the opposition is divided?"
"Exactly. We've heard a lot on the campaign trail from President Obama about how this voting system gets away from tactical voting and settling for the lesser of two evils. But we can see here that it's still possible to have 'wasted' votes."
"A consequence of the use of only three-member districts, no doubt..."
"We have been interrupted there with a result from Rhode Island, the second and final district..."
"Yes, and a more typical one, with the vote largely split between three parties. If you follow the same method I just outlined, the Progs get seat one, then we divide their votes in two - now the Nats have the most, then we divide theirs in two - and the Libs on 21% or so have more than the 15% or so that the reduced Progs and Nats have."
"I see," Neil said, his face disagreeing with his words.
"And with both results from Rhode Island in, the additional statewide seats are also declared," Vine added.
"And as these are simple first-past-the-post, both go to the Progressives, who continue to perform well in Mr Sanders' home region - which we will come to in a minute, Katty."
"What were you saying about three-member districts before, Jeremy?"
"Well, if I understand the maths, it would be much harder for all four seats to go to one party if there were four. And it'd be less likely for a party on, ah, thirty percent to get the same one seat as a party on twenty percent, like we just saw with that second Rhode Island district."
"Ah, right. Nate?"
"Yes, Jeremy is right," Silver agreed, his surprised expression momentarily obscured by the large bubble floating past, one of many slowly moving upwards through his cryogenic pod. "More seats would lead to a more proportional result."
"So why has Mr Obama and his Article V convention gone for three-member districts?" Neil asked.
Silver ran a cyborg hand through his hair. "Well, the current model is based on just awarding three seats to each of the existing districts," he explained. "In theory, when the new Congress meets, this could be changed so that districts are merged and redrawn. For example, the two Rhode Island districts we've heard about could be merged into one six-member district. But..."
"Sorry to interrupt you there, Nate, that's another district in Florida, from the north-east of the state. Very close result between the Conservatives - again, perhaps Mr Rubio's personal vote? - and the Liberals, but once again the Nationals are out in front."
"And also another from North Carolina. Another closely divided one, and the Progressives nearly nabbed the third seat. Er, I think this takes in the Raleigh suburbs."
"Rawley," a somewhat irritated Nate Silver corrected him.
"You Americans and your pronunciations..."
"This one is more period accurate than yours! Just ask Sir Walter Raleigh - I mean Rawley!"
"Fine, send a memo to, checks notes, Peter Capaldi and we'll ask him to go and check."
"And one more from Virginia."
"My apologies, Nate, please continue with what you were saying about multi-member districts."
Slightly mollified, Silver nodded, revealing the glinting circuitboard texture of his neck. "Of course. First, I should say that's an impressive result for the Libs in vee aye oh four, takes in half of Richmond and Petersburg but still--"
"Oh come on, I know your districts are gerrymandered, but you can't possibly have one that stretches all the way from Yorkshire to Russia."
"Be quiet, Jeremy. Nate, about the multi-member districts..."
"Thank you...as I was saying, it would be possible to create districts with more members, or even turn an entire state into a district...but the problem is the smaller states, such as Vermont which we've already seen. Their population only entitles them to a single district, and thus it would be impossible to give them more than three representatives, unless Congress was increased even further in size."
"Can't you just combine states together into one district?"
"Oh come on," said Silver, impatiently blinking one eye and cutting off the red laser beam in the shape of a skull and crossbones emerging from it, "you've got to be realistic."
"Nate Silver, thank you."
"Another result from North Carolina. This one takes in the coastline of the state. Again, closely divided between several parties there. And that should be enough to update the map..."
A slightly ruffled-looking Maitlis nodded. "That's right, Andrew. As always, the viewers at home are seeking to contact us by calling in, sending SMS text messages via the Cellnet, and in one case a carrier pigeon from the Outer Hebrides containing a Ceefax letters page engraved on a single grain of rice. However, we have, of course, ignored all of these, because we all know that the only people we care about are those who post on Twitter. To that end, I have almost four questions here from the viewers at home. First of all, from user TungstenTexan, who writes: 'Every district so far has been split between more than one party - is it possible under hashtag you-ess election sixteen hashtag voting system for all three seats to go to one party?'"
"Well, is it? Jeremy?"
"It is certainly possible, Andrew, but it would require very high support for one party, and the support for the others to be split very granular...ly...is that a word? It is now! Uh, fragmented..."
"Could you explain more?"
"You'd have to go to one of our experts, even though, according to the Leader of the Conservative Party - our Conservative Party, I mean - we have apparently had enough of them. But in the meantime, we have our first result from the state of West Virginia."
Rich (BB code):
WV-02
Nat 132,448 52.9%
Prog 40,507 16.2%
Lib 32,980 13.2%
Fus 32,226 12.9%
All 12,106 4.8%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 250,267
MCs elected:
Nat
Nat
Nat"Well. Speak of the devil - other personifications of evil are available."
"...er, are they?"
"This is the BBC. As I was saying, the question from our metallic tweeter from the Lone Star State has been dramatically answered. Our first result from West Virginia, not merely the western part of Virginia, you understand, but a separate state..."
"Yes, well, from one metal to another, it's time to go over to one of our local native guides for the night, er, is that cute or offensive, anyway, it's Mr Nate Silver, who is speaking to us from his cryogenic capsule beneath Cheyenne Mountain. Mr Silver, can you explain this result?"
"Well, Andrew, the Cubs in the ninth inning scored a touchdown over the Packers, and because Lebron James was still in the sin-bin for smashing Michael Vick's face into the ice, there was a strike at home plate - Christian Pulisic's star play was foiled when he was knocked down by all ten pins--"
"No, I'm sorry, there may be some confusion, I was talking about the election."
"Oh - my apologies, I always get Michael Vick and Mitt Romney mixed up. Well, yes, West Virginia. This is a state that has been in economic decline for some time. Its industry is associated with coal mining, and the unions were powerful here, which tended to help the Democrats. But in recent years, both culture-war issues and views about climate change - which is itself a culture-war issue in some ways - have strongly trended the state towards Republicans. Mr Trump's declarations about talking about rebuilding American industry probably helped him here, whereas the Conservatives' laissez-faire approach, 'vulture capitalism' as it has been dubbed, has not seen much enthusiasm from these blue-coollar workers."
"That's fascinating - imagine if our disaffected coal mining areas started voting for the Tories, can you imagine. But can you explain why the voting system has given all three seats to Mr Trump's Nationals?"
"Well, as you guys from the BBC know, nobody in the world actually understands proportional representation voting systems, but I'll give it my best shot. See, think of it this way. The Nats get the first seat because they have the most votes. The formula then divides their starting number in two, but that's still higher than the second-placed party, the Progs, so the Nats get the second seat. Then it divides it in three, but that's still higher - so the last seat goes to them, too."
"All those numbers, amazing. So, as Jeremy said, it's not just that the, er, Nationals have a lot of support here, but that the opposition is divided?"
"Exactly. We've heard a lot on the campaign trail from President Obama about how this voting system gets away from tactical voting and settling for the lesser of two evils. But we can see here that it's still possible to have 'wasted' votes."
"A consequence of the use of only three-member districts, no doubt..."
Rich (BB code):
RI-02
Prog 71,964 30.2%
Nat 69,717 29.2%
Lib 49,879 20.9%
Fus 35,316 14.8%
All 11,713 4.9%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 238,589
MCs elected:
Prog
Nat
Lib"We have been interrupted there with a result from Rhode Island, the second and final district..."
"Yes, and a more typical one, with the vote largely split between three parties. If you follow the same method I just outlined, the Progs get seat one, then we divide their votes in two - now the Nats have the most, then we divide theirs in two - and the Libs on 21% or so have more than the 15% or so that the reduced Progs and Nats have."
"I see," Neil said, his face disagreeing with his words.
"And with both results from Rhode Island in, the additional statewide seats are also declared," Vine added.
Rich (BB code):
Rhode Island at-large
Prog 141,261 31.1%
Nat 116,029 25.5%
Lib 111,264 24.5%
Fus 64,514 14.2%
All 21,637 4.8%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 454,705
MCs elected:
Prog
Prog"And as these are simple first-past-the-post, both go to the Progressives, who continue to perform well in Mr Sanders' home region - which we will come to in a minute, Katty."
"What were you saying about three-member districts before, Jeremy?"
"Well, if I understand the maths, it would be much harder for all four seats to go to one party if there were four. And it'd be less likely for a party on, ah, thirty percent to get the same one seat as a party on twenty percent, like we just saw with that second Rhode Island district."
"Ah, right. Nate?"
"Yes, Jeremy is right," Silver agreed, his surprised expression momentarily obscured by the large bubble floating past, one of many slowly moving upwards through his cryogenic pod. "More seats would lead to a more proportional result."
"So why has Mr Obama and his Article V convention gone for three-member districts?" Neil asked.
Silver ran a cyborg hand through his hair. "Well, the current model is based on just awarding three seats to each of the existing districts," he explained. "In theory, when the new Congress meets, this could be changed so that districts are merged and redrawn. For example, the two Rhode Island districts we've heard about could be merged into one six-member district. But..."
Rich (BB code):
FL-04
Nat 125,740 29.8%
Con 87,541 20.8%
Lib 85,974 20.4%
Prog 57,701 13.7%
Cst 48,545 11.5%
All 16,116 3.8%
Fus 0 0%
Total 421,618
MCs elected:
Nat
Con
Lib"Sorry to interrupt you there, Nate, that's another district in Florida, from the north-east of the state. Very close result between the Conservatives - again, perhaps Mr Rubio's personal vote? - and the Liberals, but once again the Nationals are out in front."
Rich (BB code):
NC-02
Lib 100,063 25.2%
Cst 88,809 22.4%
Nat 73,796 18.6%
Prog 73,068 18.4%
Con 48,845 12.3%
All 12,586 3.2%
Fus 0 0%
Total 397,167
MCs elected:
Lib
Cst
Nat"And also another from North Carolina. Another closely divided one, and the Progressives nearly nabbed the third seat. Er, I think this takes in the Raleigh suburbs."
"Rawley," a somewhat irritated Nate Silver corrected him.
"You Americans and your pronunciations..."
"This one is more period accurate than yours! Just ask Sir Walter Raleigh - I mean Rawley!"
"Fine, send a memo to, checks notes, Peter Capaldi and we'll ask him to go and check."
Rich (BB code):
VA-04
Lib 156,652 43.2%
Nat 56,911 15.7%
Prog 56,025 15.5%
Con 53,490 14.8%
Cst 24,274 6.7%
All 15,179 4.2%
Fus 0 0%
Total 362,532
MCs elected:
Lib
Lib
Nat"And one more from Virginia."
"My apologies, Nate, please continue with what you were saying about multi-member districts."
Slightly mollified, Silver nodded, revealing the glinting circuitboard texture of his neck. "Of course. First, I should say that's an impressive result for the Libs in vee aye oh four, takes in half of Richmond and Petersburg but still--"
"Oh come on, I know your districts are gerrymandered, but you can't possibly have one that stretches all the way from Yorkshire to Russia."
"Be quiet, Jeremy. Nate, about the multi-member districts..."
"Thank you...as I was saying, it would be possible to create districts with more members, or even turn an entire state into a district...but the problem is the smaller states, such as Vermont which we've already seen. Their population only entitles them to a single district, and thus it would be impossible to give them more than three representatives, unless Congress was increased even further in size."
"Can't you just combine states together into one district?"
"Oh come on," said Silver, impatiently blinking one eye and cutting off the red laser beam in the shape of a skull and crossbones emerging from it, "you've got to be realistic."
"Nate Silver, thank you."
Rich (BB code):
NC-03
Nat 94,063 28.6%
Lib 73,438 22.4%
Cst 66,023 20.1%
Prog 47,657 14.5%
Con 38,778 11.8%
All 8,493 2.6%
Fus 0 0%
Total 328,451
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Cst"Another result from North Carolina. This one takes in the coastline of the state. Again, closely divided between several parties there. And that should be enough to update the map..."
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
Rolla, Missouri is named after it, respelled phonetically.
Walpurgisnacht
It was in the Year of Maximum Danger
- Location
- Banned from the forum
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Other running gags are, of course, ava
9
Rich (BB code):
FL-13
Lib 106,909 29.6%
Nat 83,854 23.2%
Prog 71,983 20%
Con 53,198 14.7%
Cst 30,296 8.4%
All 14,520 4%
Fus 0 0%
Total 360,760
MCs elected:
Lib
Nat
Prog"That's another result from Florida. The thirteenth district, on the west coast. Interesting one, this. The old Democrats came very close to taking it in a by-election, what they call a special election here, two years ago. Then they decided not to bother contesting it at all in the general election. That's an interesting split of the vote, possibly caused by former governor Charlie Crist deciding to stand as a candidate for all parties simultaneously."
"Well, regardless of the cause, the Progressives have the third seat, ahead of the Conservatives - despite the alleged home state appeal of co-leader Marco Rubio which we have heard of. Is this a surprise, Katty, tenuous link?"
"Well, Andrew, yes it is. We've already seen in the last few weeks, and then again tonight, repeated, you might say, recalibration of the expectations management for the Progressives by their opponents. When the party was launched, senior Liberals openly claimed that they would be lucky to win one seat in Bernie Sanders' home state of Vermont. As we've seen tonight, the results have been drastically different. Not only have the Progressives done exceptionally well in the wider region of New England, but they have been electing MCs even in the more small-c conservative states such as, here, Florida."
"Perhaps you can tell us a little more about them..."
"I thought you'd never ask."
The screen next to Kay changed again, this time showing various green-tinted greyscale images of Bernie Sanders at different ages, standing behind lecterns, cutting ribbons, waving his fist, etc. There were also newspaper cuttings; prominent among them was a Guardian headline reading "Who Is Barney Saunders?" The word 'Progressive' and a green pine tree symbol in a circle overlaid the collage.
"We've already heard tonight about how the right-wing National Party has cut radically into the old Republican vote, which many expected to transfer wholesale to the Conservatives. Well, there is a parallel to how the left-wing Progressives have done the same to the Democrats, though the situations are somewhat different. Another parallel between the Nationals and Progressives, however, is that both have been accused of being one-man vehicles."
The screen shifted to show one of the more recent green-tinted photos of Sanders, now artificially facing off with an orange-tinted Donald Trump (at least, the photoshop backroom boys had probably had to apply a tint) across a dark void as though they were in an Alas Smith and Jones talking head sketch.
"But Mr Sanders has been swift to deny these accusations, as we can see here at a campaign rally..."
Sanders, elderly but vigorous, proclaimed his message to an excited crowd. "This is not about me! This is about us! And..." his accent momentarily strengthened, "it's about the unmatched taste of REAL! BROOKLYN! PIZZA! When the evils of capitalism attack, my Bernie Bros won't cut 'em no slack--" An aide diplomatically walked up behind him and gently slapped him back to normal. "And a new deal for the American worker..."
"As we just heard there, Mr Sanders was born in the New York City borough of Brooklyn, but he has built his political career in the small New England state of Vermont. Rising from mayor of the town of Burlington to Congressman and then Senator for that state, Mr Sanders historically refused to join the Democratic Party outright. He is one of very few successful US politicians of modern times to openly describe himself as a socialist. For decades that has been a dirty word in American political discourse, more associated with communist dictatorships than the welfare state democracies we tend to think of first. But there are signs of shifts in attitudes, shifts which have alarmed many more mainstream political figures."
"People are waking up," said a woman identified as Kshama Sawant - Seattle Councillor. "They can only label the mildest compromise with rapacious capitalism as 'socialism' for so long before it stops being a bogeyman. Now the workers of America are beginning to educate themselves."
Kay's voice cut back in. "With Mr Sanders' long-held positions becoming more openly considered by American voters, his new political party has drawn perhaps surprising levels of support. Though relatively few senior politicians have endorsed or joined the Progressives, a new generation of activists have been inspired by their message. The Liberals have hit back with accusations which the Progressives describe as mud-slinging. For example, when Mr Sanders walked across the surface of a lake to heal an injured swan, he was accused of breaking zoning regulations. The Liberals also claim the Progressives are dominated by white men in contrast to their own more inclusive membership, a claim which the Progressives deny. We spoke to Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, a campaign organiser for Mr Sanders who Mystic Meg told us to pay attention to, as well as investing in companies that make face masks, disinfectants and online soapboxes for conspiracy theorists. This is what Ms Ocasio-Cortez had to say."
"Capitalism needs to be confronted, not appeased," Ocasio-Cortez began. "I knew things had gone too far when nobody could say my name in the coffee place where I worked without activating Jeff Bezos' artificial intelligence. As for these claims we're not diverse enough - I have an asteroid named after me, your argument is invalid."
Back to Kay. "We still don't know what election night will hold for Mr Sanders and the Progressives, but one thing is clear: American politics will never be the same again."
Rich (BB code):
NY-03
Lib 110,537 32%
Nat 104,980 30.4%
Prog 67,751 19.6%
Fus 51,962 15%
All 10,045 2.9%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 345,275
MCs elected:
Lib
Nat
Prog"Thank you Katty, that was very interesting. And we're seeing yet more signs of that success."
"Yes, our latest result there is from New York state - from the northern shore of Long Island. This was an area that's usually pretty reliable for the old Democrats, yet the two parties led by New Yorkers are getting representation as well as the one led by a former New York senator who wasn't born there."
"So good they named it twice."
Rich (BB code):
NC-05
Nat 81,729 22.8%
Cst 80,291 22.4%
Lib 76,303 21.3%
Prog 66,064 18.5%
Con 43,328 12.1%
All 10,307 2.9%
Fus 0 0%
Total 358,023
MCs elected:
Nat
Cst
Lib"Back to North Carolina, and a very divided district there in the north-western part of the state."
Rich (BB code):
NH-02
Prog 110,084 30.6%
Nat 77,734 21.6%
Lib 65,098 18.1%
Con 62,631 17.4%
Cst 26,166 7.3%
All 18,581 5.2%
Fus 0 0%
Total 360,294
MCs elected:
Prog
Nat
Lib"And...yes. You may remember, what seems like quite a while ago, New Hampshire's first district was the first one to report. Evidently they worked all their vote counters to death on the first one, as it's taken this long to get the second. But we have it now, a very similar result to the first, in fact. And as there are only two districts in the so-called Granite State, that means we can now also give the statewide seats."
Rich (BB code):
New Hampshire at-large
Prog 214,335 29.3%
Nat 166,864 22.8%
Lib 134,191 18.3%
Con 123,896 16.9%
Cst 55,030 7.5%
All 37,951 5.2%
Fus 0 0%
Total 732,267
MCs elected:
Prog
Prog"The Progressives have indeed topped the polls here as they have in so many places in New England. The Liberals are in third behind the Nationals, which must be troubling to them. And we can update the map..."
"Indeed, they've actually topped the polls in every state to finish counting so far. Only Massachusetts and Connecticut remain."
"Admittedly, the Liberals have performed better in those two states. But it will still be an embarrassment, not only for Hillary Clinton, but for the many veteran former Democratic politicians who insisted that Mr Sanders' ideas were too 'extreme' to be electable. Here, in Mr Sanders' backyard, the Progressives seem to be not merely competitive, but dominant!"
"Quite so - we'll be speaking to some more local analysts about this in due time."
Rich (BB code):
FL-11
Nat 148,766 36.2%
Lib 85,148 20.7%
Con 72,887 17.7%
Prog 48,300 11.8%
Cst 44,603 10.9%
All 11,293 2.7%
Fus 0 0%
Total 410,998
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Nat"Florida again, and the rural eleventh district, just to the west of Orlando, the only place we care about in Florida. Again, for all the claims of Mr Rubio's home state advantage, the Conservatives have lost out - with the Nationals even taking two seats out of three..."
Rich (BB code):
CT-05
Nat 91,766 28.4%
Prog 81,098 25.1%
Lib 80,044 24.8%
Fus 56,135 17.4%
All 13,694 4.2%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 322,737
MCs elected:
Nat
Prog
Lib"And back to New England. That's our last result from Connecticut, and the first time the Nationals have topped the polls anywhere in this part of the United States. That will be a shock to many people. But more importantly, it means we can now add the statewide seats for Connecticut. I should've waited to update the map!"
"Yes, you should have."
Rich (BB code):
Connecticut at-large
Lib 476,408 29%
Prog 421,164 25.6%
Nat 401,528 24.4%
Fus 271,687 16.5%
All 71,517 4.4%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 1,642,304
MCs elected:
Lib
Lib"The Progressive shut-out for New England we just talked about didn't last long, then - Connecticut, at least, has seen the Liberals come out on top. Massachusetts is still counting for some seats."
Rich (BB code):
NY-11
Nat 106,944 43%
Lib 56,118 22.6%
Prog 52,689 21.2%
Fus 26,288 10.6%
All 6,418 2.6%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 248,457
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Nat"New York again, this time the eleventh district, which takes in Staten Island and a chunk of Manhattan. This is the only part of New York City that tended to vote Republican, but even then, it's usually more associated with the more liberal Republicans. This tremendous vote for the Nationals, taking two seats out of three, is quite a shock."
"Indeed, another thing to discuss later as the night unfolds."
Rich (BB code):
NY-04
Lib 111,997 33.3%
Nat 97,438 28.9%
Prog 67,848 20.1%
Fus 50,031 14.9%
All 9,497 2.8%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 336,811
MCs elected:
Lib
Nat
Prog"We're really seeing an avalanche of New York seats now...this is a more urban Long Island district and it's split three ways."
Rich (BB code):
FL-19
Nat 114,037 29.9%
Lib 92,900 24.4%
Con 73,257 19.2%
Prog 50,101 13.1%
Cst 39,803 10.4%
All 11,060 2.9%
Fus 0 0%
Total 381,158
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Con"And Florida's not far behind. Another from the west coast. Finally another Conservative seat to put a quavering smile on Mr Rubio's little face."
"...have you reverted to Jackanory mode?"
"Er, not at all! Look, a map!"
"At least as far as the leading parties are concerned, Florida looks to be a fight between the Liberals and Nationals - little sign of that Conservative support, except in that they take second or third seats."
Rich (BB code):
MA-02
Prog 114,639 32.6%
Lib 82,853 23.6%
Nat 65,499 18.6%
Fus 63,938 18.2%
All 24,494 7%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 351,423
MCs elected:
Prog
Lib
Nat"We just mentioned Massachusetts, and the New England map continues to fill out with this district from the middle part of the state - at least in this part, the Progressives are still beating the Liberals."
Rich (BB code):
SC-01
Lib 89,010 26.7%
Con 75,777 22.8%
Nat 64,433 19.3%
Prog 45,675 13.7%
Cst 37,843 11.4%
All 20,283 6.1%
Fus 0 0%
Total 333,021
MCs elected:
Lib
Con
Nat"We haven't seen South Carolina for a while, but this is ironically better news for the Conservatives than Florida. This district has until recently been represented by Mark Sanford, who we'll see later as part of Emily's piece on how this campaign has inspired sex scandal practitioners across America."
Rich (BB code):
VA-10
Lib 127,127 31.5%
Con 89,549 22.2%
Prog 83,565 20.7%
Nat 52,418 13%
Cst 28,613 7.1%
All 22,549 5.6%
Fus 0 0%
Total 403,821
MCs elected:
Lib
Con
Prog"Another seat for the Conservatives there in Virginia, in the northern part of the state near Washington DC, which has trended towards the old Democrats in recent years. And indeed, though the Liberals topped the polls, the Progressives have won a seat as well."
"Oh, and that means I can update another map!"
"No, you ca-"
- Location
- Sheffield
- Pronouns
- she/her
*chef's kiss*
Removed my like on this post just so I could like it again.
Walpurgisnacht
It was in the Year of Maximum Danger
- Location
- Banned from the forum
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Sort of embarassed I didn't get these gags without looking them up, but very very good work. I can't believe the Appalachian Trail goes through Uganda.
Steve Brinson
The possum is not OK. Neither are we.
- Location
- Brooklyn (originally Houston)
- Pronouns
- he/him
Fivey was 2020, wasn't he?
...how else would you pronounce it?
It could go the other way, too - ideologies that failed to win seats might go the other way, with voters going tactically for parties they think could clear the threshold.
Lmao excellent timing - and that's really not a very high voteshare to get all three seats! I was expecting one would need at least 60%.
I quite like the color scheme, incidentally - a lot of pleasing orange-and-blue and green-and-purple contrasts.
Jophiel
Trend Setting 'Gender Tourist' since 2018.
- Location
- Newcastle upon Tyne
- Pronouns
- she/her, they/them.
This timeline is immensely satisfying, jokes are great, like better than most AH I’ve read, really glad I spent some time to take a look.
This sounds stupid, but it seems to scratch a kind of itch about American Politics I never knew existed by having it make so much more ‘sense’ to me as someone raised in the UK. I can’t imagine the research and possible either fun or strain that it took to figure out each region and constituencies votes.
Can’t wait to see more.
This sounds stupid, but it seems to scratch a kind of itch about American Politics I never knew existed by having it make so much more ‘sense’ to me as someone raised in the UK. I can’t imagine the research and possible either fun or strain that it took to figure out each region and constituencies votes.
Can’t wait to see more.
Confused the hell out of me the first time I went there in 1990.