Rich (BB code):
NE-01
Nat 95,076 34.4%
Fus 63,553 23%
Prog 59,933 21.7%
Lib 40,097 14.5%
All 17,387 6.3%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 276,046
MCs elected:
Nat
Fus
Prog
"We have yet another new state now reporting, Nebraska...the first district, in the middle east of the state - er, not that sort of Middle East - wrapping around the biggest city of Omaha - you know, as in D-Day."
"Now in some ways Nebraska is similar to neighbouring Kansas - a farming-dominated Plains state with generally right-wing politics. Nebraska is also known for a historical rural progressive movement, small-p I mean, which is manifested in such things as the state government only having one house of its legislature, and that being non-partisan, formally no parties."
"However, we can see that these results are quite radically different to those we've seen from Kansas - well, except that the Progressives, capital P, have secured a seat. Katty, can you explain?"
"To an extent. While Mr Obama's reforms are intended to give the United States a level playing field for the parties - eliminating past issues such as unequal air time and lack of limits on campaign spending - what he could not control was that the former Democratic and Republican party organisations or 'machines' in each state are separate - I mean, each state's version of the party is separate - and they do have not moved collectively as one to the new party landscape. We've already seen that with how some states have separate Conservative and Constitution Party slates running, while in others, such as Nebraska here, the parties have settled on a single Con-Con Fusion slate. In almost every state, the vast majority of the old Democratic party organisation has shifted wholesale to the Liberals, which is why many are expressing surprise at how well the Progressives are performing on the left, against the odds. But things are much more uneven on the right with the old Republicans. While many of the most senior party leadership people went to the Conservatives - who have generally underperformed tonight - some, such as Scott Walker who Emily spoke to a short time ago, have backed Mr Cruz's Constitution Party, rejecting Mr Obama's reforms altogether. And a few, such as Chris Christie of New Jersey, have gone over to Mr Trump's Nationals, despite them being largely treated as beyond the pale by the mainstream Republicans."
"But what about Kansas versus Nebraska?"
"Well, in Kansas many prominent local Republicans have gone over to the Constitution Party, while Nebraska is one of a number of Plains states where Mr Trump's Nationals have, unexpectedly, captured a significant part of the existing state party leadership. That does make a difference to how local voters perceive the parties - this is a political culture in which individual endorsements for parties by 'big beasts', as in for individual candidates within parties in the old primary system, has historically swayed many voters. Very unlike how we would normally view multi-party politics, but a uniquely American twist on the concept."
"I see. Fascinating."
Rich (BB code):
AR-04
Nat 68,559 25.3%
Lib 60,286 22.3%
Cst 59,796 22.1%
Con 45,376 16.8%
Prog 24,556 9.1%
All 12,207 4.5%
Fus 0 0%
Total 270,781
MCs elected:
Nat
Lib
Cst
"That's the fourth and final district in Arkansas, in the southwest of the state. This one historically elected conservative Democrats in the big-tent party days. Here you can see it's backing the right, in the form of a National and a Constitution candidate, but the Liberals have still secured one as well - whereas it was seeming as though the Democrats were getting shut out altogether under Mr Obama."
"That also means we can give the results for the statewide seats..."
Rich (BB code):
Arkansas at-large
Lib 259,890 23%
Nat 254,398 22.5%
Cst 216,358 19.1%
Con 214,116 18.9%
Prog 120,604 10.7%
All 65,269 5.8%
Fus 0 0%
Total 1,130,635
MCs elected:
Lib
Lib
"So a win for the Liberals, despite the state's shift to the right as you mentioned. A close result, and perhaps guaranteed only by the presence of former Arkansas First Lady Hillary Clinton as party leader?"
"I'm not sure if she's still as popular there to be honest, Andrew, but the Liberals have definitely benefited from a very divided right in the state, whereas rather fewer left-wing voters have backed the Progressives."
Rich (BB code):
TX-31
Lib 67,325 23.4%
Cst 58,936 20.5%
Con 55,350 19.3%
Prog 49,856 17.3%
Nat 39,537 13.8%
All 16,506 5.7%
Fus 0 0%
Total 287,510
MCs elected:
Lib
Cst
Con
"That's our second result from Texas. As you can see from the high district number, it has a great many of them."
"Thirty-six, in fact. This one, north of the city of Austin, was represented by John Carter-"
"What, as in the bloke who went to Mars, or the other one?"
"One of the other ones. It was formerly a Republican district but, as we've just seen in Arkansas, a divided right has given the lead to the Liberals - with the Constitution Party in second place and the Conservatives in third."
Rich (BB code):
MN-02
Prog 99,777 26.4%
Con 80,481 21.3%
Lib 71,510 18.9%
Cst 56,433 14.9%
Nat 38,894 10.3%
All 30,793 8.1%
Fus 0 0%
Total 377,887
MCs elected:
Prog
Con
Lib
"And back up to Minnesota for the second district, south of the Twin Cities of Minneapolis - which we saw a short while ago - and St Paul. We've actually not seen that many districts with both Conservatives and Liberals elected, after the expectation during the campaign that that would be the norm with them as the top two...regardless, the Progressives have taken another win in the Midwest."
"We can also look at how Minnesota and its southern neighbour Iowa are shaping up on the map."
"Already three colours on that map, and as we saw in Michigan and Wisconsin, I suspect there will soon be more."
Rich (BB code):
LA-06
Cst 93,876 26.4%
Nat 89,888 25.3%
Lib 81,025 22.8%
Con 46,936 13.2%
Prog 29,371 8.3%
All 14,856 4.2%
Fus 0 0%
Total 355,951
MCs elected:
Cst
Nat
Lib
"We also have Los An - dammit - Louisiana's sixth district. This one includes most of the state capital of Baton Rouge and, um, squiggly bits. A win for the Constitution Party here, with the Nationals in second, but the Liberals also secure a seat in what used to be a pro-Republican gerrymander."
Rich (BB code):
IA-02
Lib 89,554 23.6%
Prog 81,242 21.4%
Cst 66,833 17.6%
Nat 61,732 16.2%
Con 57,819 15.2%
All 22,779 6%
Fus 0 0%
Total 379,959
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Cst
"Another result from Iowa - I could have waited to update the map - and this one is also in the east of the state, with a very similar result to the first district which we already saw."
Rich (BB code):
MN-03
Prog 107,203 27%
Lib 94,630 23.8%
Con 87,003 21.9%
Cst 44,373 11.2%
Nat 32,883 8.3%
All 30,916 7.8%
Fus 0 0%
Total 397,008
MCs elected:
Prog
Lib
Con
"And another similar result to others we've seen too, but this time in Minnesota, in the western suburbs of Minneapolis. Yet another Progressive win, with the Conservatives continuing to show they are more competitive in Minnesota than some other states we've seen."
"This was predicted, with the more moderate - or so we're told - Conservatives appealing more to the right-wing minority in generally leftier-of-centre like Minnesota - yet tonight, this has been the exception rather than the rule. Look at how the Nationals performed in New England."
Rich (BB code):
SD-00
Nat 152,808 41.3%
Fus 74,923 20.2%
Lib 59,908 16.2%
Prog 57,558 15.6%
All 24,914 6.7%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 370,111
MCs elected:
Nat
Nat
Fus
"Speaking of the Nationals, we now have the results from South Dakota, which you will be unsurprised to hear is North Dakota's southern neighbour, and the Nationals have captured two of the three seats in this state's single district, with the third going to the Fusionists."
"South Dakota is of course known for Mount Rushmore and...um...does anyone remember George McGovern...er, that's it."
"For those who do remember him, McGovern was a very left-wing Democratic presidential candidate from the state who lost badly to Richard Nixon in 1972. But clearly he was not typical of voters in his state. As with North Dakota, a single declaration means we can see the statewide seats awarded off the same results:"
Rich (BB code):
South Dakota at-large
Nat 152,808 41.3%
Fus 74,923 20.2%
Lib 59,908 16.2%
Prog 57,558 15.6%
All 24,914 6.7%
Cst 0 0%
Con 0 0%
Total 370,111
MCs elected:
Nat
Nat
"So overall, four out of five seats in this state for the National Party, a thumping win for Mr Trump's supporters and a worry for the other right-wing parties" (sotto voce) "and, um, everyone sane."
"Here's a map. Be warned, it's a big one, even though fewer people live in the confines of this map than live in the whole of Scotland. Or Yorkshire."
"Yes, probably best not to update that one again till we have all the results..."
Rich (BB code):
TX-04
Cst 94,650 33.9%
Nat 63,524 22.8%
Con 52,413 18.8%
Lib 40,754 14.6%
Prog 20,087 7.2%
All 7,760 2.8%
Fus 0 0%
Total 279,188
MCs elected:
Cst
Nat
Con
"Another Texas result, in a much more populous state of course! This one's in the north-east of the state, and you can see it's a very right-wing area, with all three right-wing parties winning seats."
"The Constitution Party easily in first, though. As a reminder, Mr Cruz, the party's leader, was a sitting Texas Senator, and appears to be drawing home-state loyalty for his new party."
Rich (BB code):
IA-04
Cst 88,371 23.3%
Con 71,694 18.9%
Nat 71,165 18.7%
Lib 63,886 16.8%
Prog 63,515 16.7%
All 21,270 5.6%
Fus 0 0%
Total 379,900
MCs elected:
Cst
Con
Nat
"That's a similar result to the one we just saw in Texas - but very different to the other ones we saw in Iowa! Can you explain, Katty?"
"This shows you the dichotomy of Iowa, very divided and diverse in terms of political opinions if not ethnicity. In this district, to the west of the two that have already reported, the right-wing pluralities are just that little bit higher to shut out the left."
"Interesting."
Rich (BB code):
LA-04
Lib 91,302 28.7%
Cst 84,443 26.5%
Nat 73,889 23.2%
Con 34,645 10.9%
Prog 25,297 7.9%
All 8,887 2.8%
Fus 0 0%
Total 318,462
MCs elected:
Lib
Cst
Nat
"Back to Louisiana, and the fourth district, in the west of the state...it's the same story we've seen before. Another Republican-gerrymandered district under the old system now puts the Liberals in first as they secure most of the left-wing vote, while the more divided right does get two seats for the Constitution Party and Nationals, in this case, but runs the risk of the Liberals getting the popular-vote win across the state."
"Yes, it's not completely unheard of for Democrats still to have won in Louisiana under the old system, such as the recent gubernatorial victory by former Senator for Corellia, Garm Bel Iblis-"
"I think you mean John Bel Edwards."
"Oh yes, I always get those two mixed up. Anyway, yes, it wasn't unheard of, but this will still be a shake-up for Louisiana politics."
"I think this election is a shake-up for politics everywhere!"
"True. Perhaps even beyond the USA's borders."
Rich (BB code):
OK-04
Cst 77,922 26.4%
Nat 59,434 20.1%
Con 56,805 19.2%
Prog 50,317 17%
Lib 33,331 11.3%
All 17,655 6%
Fus 0 0%
Total 295,464
MCs elected:
Cst
Nat
Con
"And speaking of which, yet another new state. Tell us about Oklahoma, Katty."
"Yes, Oklahoma is much more than a musical with an exclamation mark. Not many people know this in the UK, but it's actually home to a large part of the country's displaced Nativ Am...India...indigenous people. Even the state name means 'Red People'."
"I thought you said I wasn't allowed to-"
"ANYWAY, Oklahoma has shifted drastically to the Republicans in recent years, under the old system, I mean, and this district, in the south-central of the state, is no exception. Supporting going to all three right-wing parties, once again."
"Hmm. Do you think there's a left-wing minority there still, in other districts perhaps, which will still get representation under this voting system?"
"Only time will tell."
Rich (BB code):
IA-03
Prog 97,004 24.1%
Lib 84,520 21%
Con 70,537 17.5%
Cst 64,282 15.9%
Nat 60,921 15.1%
All 25,927 6.4%
Fus 0 0%
Total 403,191
MCs elected:
Prog
Lib
Con
"That's our last result from Iowa, and very different once again!"
"Yes, that western character, maybe, gave the Progressives a slight lead over the Liberals...but unlike the other western district we saw, the left are still ahead of the right."
"We can also give the statewide seats of course..."
Rich (BB code):
Iowa
Prog 328,547 21.1%
Lib 327,709 21.1%
Cst 291,036 18.7%
Con 258,832 16.7%
Nat 253,894 16.3%
All 93,965 6%
Fus 0 0%
Total 1,553,984
MCs elected:
Prog
Prog
"Well. That's an extremely narrow win, on an extremely narrow plurality, for the Progressives to take yet more top-up seats in a Midwest state."
"Yes, I fully expect calls for a recount. For now, however, it looks like Mr Sanders' party has done it again, despite only leading in one out of the four districts."
Rich (BB code):
MO-05
Lib 94,019 28.6%
Prog 83,753 25.5%
Cst 52,642 16%
Nat 51,664 15.7%
Con 29,151 8.9%
All 17,573 5.3%
Fus 0 0%
Total 328,803
MCs elected:
Lib
Prog
Cst
"And to the south, in Missouri, this district, which takes in a lot of Kansas City-"
"I thought you said it was in Missouri?"
"Please don't ask or we'll be here all night. Anyway, a lead for the Liberals as we've generally seen in urban areas, but with the Progressives and, unusually, the Constitution Party also taking seats. Let's have a map update."
"Again, what a diversity of opinion we're seeing - every single party colour, except Alliance yellow of course, represented across these three states."
Rich (BB code):
WY-00
Cst 130,172 52.3%
Con 31,395 12.6%
Prog 31,177 12.5%
Lib 24,796 10%
All 18,553 7.5%
Nat 12,852 5.2%
Fus 0 0%
Total 248,945
MCs elected:
Cst
Cst
Cst
"Hmm, I didn't expect this one to come in so soon...but Wyoming on the Plains, the smallest state by population but, again, very large and very rectangular by geographic area, has now declared. And that's a whopping landslide for the Constitution Party!"
"Yes, that's the first time the Constitution Party have secured all three seats in a district, I think, with more than half of the votes cast. I presume Wyoming is one of the states where the local Republican party leadership went across wholesale to the Constitution Party."
"Correct. It's still a surprisingly overwhelming result, though, even in what was already known as a very right-wing state. Wyoming was actually the first place in the US to give women the vote, although, er, you'd never guess it from that result."
"We can also show the top-up seats, and those are no surprise..."
Rich (BB code):
Wyoming
Cst 130,172 52.3%
Con 31,395 12.6%
Prog 31,177 12.5%
Lib 24,796 10%
All 18,553 7.5%
Nat 12,852 5.2%
Fus 0 0%
Total 248,945
MCs elected:
Cst
Cst
"So five full Constitution seats out of a single small state."
Rich (BB code):
TX-01
Cst 97,788 37.3%
Lib 50,143 19.1%
Nat 47,930 18.3%
Con 43,886 16.7%
Prog 16,246 6.2%
All 6,499 2.5%
Fus 0 0%
Total 262,492
MCs elected:
Cst
Lib
Cst
"And two more for the Constitution Party from Texas' first district, which is also in the northeast of the state - though one goes to the Liberals."
Rich (BB code):
LA-01
Nat 108,552 30.5%
Cst 78,664 22.1%
Lib 58,967 16.5%
Con 57,690 16.2%
Prog 36,203 10.2%
All 16,406 4.6%
Fus 0 0%
Total 356,482
MCs elected:
Nat
Cst
Lib
"And one more from Louisiana, in the first district, which is split into two parts around the mouth of the Mississ - the Missy - that big river."
"Along with a National and a Liberal. That's the last result from Louisiana, so let's see which party came out on top in the end..."
Rich (BB code):
Louisiana
Lib 587,158 28.9%
Nat 488,182 24.1%
Cst 447,938 22.1%
Con 242,518 12%
Prog 192,996 9.5%
All 70,240 3.5%
Fus 0 0%
Total 2,029,032
MCs elected:
Lib
Lib
"And, as we suspected, the Liberals have taken it thanks to a divided right - with the Nationals in second and the Constitution Party in third. More top-up seats from Deep South states going not to any of the right-wing parties we might have expected, but to Mrs Clinton's Liberals."
"There will be a lot of anger on the right tonight - no change there - and every one of these seats will help in the parliamentary arithmetic of seats when the night is over."
"Yes, speaking of which, I think that's nearly two-thirds of all the seats nationwide declared, so can we have an update on seat numbers?"
Rich (BB code):
327 Lib
229 Nat
171 Prog
91 Con
68 Cst
29 Fus
0 All
"With 915 seats declared out of 1410, we have the Liberals on 327, followed by the Nationals on 229, the Progressives on 171, the Conservatives on 91, the Constitution Party on 68 - still fifth, despite those recent wins we've seen - the Fusionists on 29, whom could be counted with both the Conservatives or Constitution Party - and nothing for the Alliance."
"Though we may soon be coming to the states where the Alliance does have a chance, albeit a slim one, to make it into Parliament..."
