Conservatives lose majority as Britain faces hung parliament
16th October 2020
The Conservatives remain in pole position to stay in Government despite losing their majority in the House of Commons.
Despite genuine hopes of maintaining a majority in the House of Commons prior to yesterday, George Osborne's party are expected to win 305 seats in Parliament, a fall of 25 when compared to their result five years ago.
Labour have won 239 seats, an increase of just seven. Leader Andy Burnham conceded that the results were "not quite as positive" as the party had hoped, but he is set to resist calls to stand down until after a government has been formed.
Elsewhere, the SNP maintained their grip on the Scottish contingent in Westminster, winning 55 of the 59 seats north of the border, whilst UKIP made significant advances in both Tory and Labour heartlands, winning 18 seats. Leader Nigel Farage finally succeeded in entering Parliament, winning the seat of South Thanet with a majority of more than 3,000.
In other election developments:
- The BBC forecast, with 649 of 650 seats declared, is Conservatives 305, Labour 239, the SNP 55, UKIP 18, the Lib Dems 10, Plaid Cymru 4, the Greens 1 and others 18.
- The Conservatives are set to win 34% of the national vote, Labour 29%, UKIP 21%, the Lib Dems 7%, the SNP 4%, the Greens 3% and Plaid Cymru 1%.
- George Osborne declared victory at his count in Tatton, telling socially distanced supporters that it was clear that the Conservatives had received a "vote of confidence" from the British electorate.
- Andy Burnham has refused to concede the election, saying the results, whilst disappointing, nonetheless represented a "rejection of the Conservatives".
- Lib Dem leader Tim Farron came within 250 votes of losing his seat of Westmorland and Lonsdale as his party fell back in terms of votes, although it made a net gain of two seats.
- UKIP leader Nigel Farage said the election results were a "fundamental call for change" as he finally succeeded in his bid to enter Parliament in South Thanet. His party are expected to win more than a fifth of the popular vote.
- The SNP had a much better night than expected, unseating Scottish Secretary David Mundell in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale but losing Edinburgh East and Fife North East to the Lib Dems.
- The Greens held their only seat in Brighton Pavilion but failed to made advances in their other targets in a disappointing election for the party.
- Plaid Cymru took the Lib Dem seat of Ceredigion and came close to also taking Ynys Mon from Labour.
- Turnout is expected to reach 69%, the highest rate since 1997, with many voters opting to vote with a postal ballot due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
Conservatives have remained bullish about their chances of remaining in government, with the party expected to call for their Northern Irish allies the DUP and UUP in order to piece together a coalition needed to operate a working majority in the House of Commons.
Whilst 326 seats are technically needed for a majority, the presence of a newly-elected Speaker to replace John Bercow as well as three deputies and five Sinn Fein MPs who do not take their seats, reduces the size of the House of Commons to 641, meaning only 321 MPs are needed for an effective majority.
It is likely that the Conservatives will need the support of another party in order to govern, however, and given the ongoing pandemic Osborne will need to appeal to other parties to allow him to deal with the health crisis before calling another election at a later date.
Whilst a revival of the 2010-2015 coalition with the Liberal Democrats could be possible, a partnership with UKIP is unlikely given the party's key demand is likely to be a second referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, something Osborne has categorically ruled out.
Osborne gave no indication that his party would be seeking support in Parliament, instead he said he would be returning to Downing Street in order to prepare for the reopening of Parliament.
"Whilst there are still some seats to declare, it is clear that tonight the British public has given the Conservatives a vote of confidence. I will continue to govern in the interests of every person in our United Kingdom and will continue to do my upmost to ensure we beat back this virus and get our country on the road to recovery." he said.
He then returned to Downing Street and is expected to begin the process of securing the votes needed in the new House of Commons to pass a Queen's Speech.
Osborne's allies, including Chancellor Sajid Javid and Home Secretary Amber Rudd, have insisted that the results mean the Conservatives are the only viable party of government in the new Parliament.
However, despite being by far the largest party, the Tories are likely to be disappointed with their inability to hold onto their parliamentary majority. Polling indicated that the party could even make gains on their 2015 result, especially given this election was fought on more favourable constituency boundaries.
However the party fell backwards in terms of vote share and lost swathes of voters in some of its heartlands in Kent and Essex to UKIP. Tory MP Steve Baker, leader of the Eurosceptic European Research Group in Parliament, said that the results were a "damning verdict on the Prime Minister's refusal to listen on Europe".