2019–2025: Boris Johnson (Conservative)
2023 (Majority) def. Keir Starmer (Labour), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Ed Davey (Liberal Democrat)
2025 Scottish independence referendum: yes (54.6%) def. no (45.4%)
2025–0000: Rishi Sunak (Conservative)
2027 (Majority) def. Emily Thornberry (Labour), Daisy Cooper (Liberal Democrat), Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru)
2031 (Majority) def. Wes Streeting (Labour), Andy Burnham (NIP), Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru), Daisy Cooper (Liberal Democrat)
Few could have imagined the impact the Northern Independence Party (NIP) would have had on British politics when it was first founded by a Brighton-based socialist in 2020. Initially a democratic socialist party generally occupied by opponents of Labour leader Keir Starmer, the party soon grew and developed over the course of the next ten years to become the third biggest party in the House of Commons.
It wasn't a surprise when the Tories emerged victorious at the 2023 election with a very slightly reduced majority, with Sir Keir Starmer failing to make any significant in-roads in a parliamentary term dominated by the coronavirus pandemic and culture wars. Boris was free to shape Britain in his image - that was until the 2025 Scottish independence referendum, which was scheduled after the SNP won a majority at the 2021 Scottish election and then won all but one of the 59 Scottish seats at the general election. The referendum reversed the decision made in 2014, ending the 318-year union between Scotland and England and taking Scotland out of the United Kingdom. Johnson was forced by his backbenchers to stand down and, unsurprisingly, he was replaced by his ever popular chancellor Rishi Sunak. Sunak led negotiations with the Scottish Government over the country's departure from the UK and after the country left in January 2027, he called an election where he won the Tories' third majority in a row.
Labour was in turmoil, split between those who believed that the party needed to return to its roots to try and win back its working class seats in the North and Midlands and those who wanted it to keep charting a progressive course that was winning it seats in London and the South, whilst losing it seats further north. Emily Thornberry resigned after the 2027 defeat and, in a bitter contest, Wes Streeting defeated Stephen Kinnock thanks to his stronger support amongst MPs, who had been given a larger say in determining the party's leader in the Starmer reforms at the start of the decade. But the choice between two uninspiring moderates summed up to many Labour members that the party had lost its way and membership dwindled, falling below 175,000 by the start of 2028.
At the same time, those disenchanted with the Conservatives - now in power for over eighteen years - began to look for a new outlook. Whilst those in urban centres in southern England mostly stayed with Labour or the Liberal Democrats (with some pockets of support for the Greens), in northern England and in Wales voters turned to separatism. Plaid Cymru had steadily grown in Welsh elections, taking power in Cardiff as a minority administration at the 2026 election, but had struggled at Westminster level, with their support mostly confined to the rural west. That soon began to change after the 2027 election (where they won 8 seats), with the party taking more and more seats off of Labour in South Wales, Cardiff and Swansea at a local level. In northern England, an even more radical change was happening. Progressive voters, or just those tired of being governed from Westminster, began to flock to the Northern Independence Party, which began to move towards the centre to try and capture voters from across the political spectrum. The party began to surge locally, winning a number of council seats and taking control, or the balance of power, on several local councils. Wins in the Liverpool and West Yorkshire mayoral contests in 2029 further enhanced the party's profile.
What it needed was a figurehead who could take the party further. This came in the form of Andy Burnham, the longstanding Mayor of Greater Manchester who was himself becoming disillusioned with Labour. Burnham would leave the party shortly after being re-elected in 2029 and joined the NIP in 2030, quickly becoming the party's leader. Ahead of the 2031 election, polls suggested that the Conservatives would be once again re-elected, perhaps again with a larger majority. But due to the lack of regional polling, nobody could really see the NIP surge coming, outside of the party likely gaining a handful of urban seats with a vote share of about 5 or 6 percent. Ultimately, the election began the real downward spiral of Labour - Plaid Cymru ate into Labour's heartlands in Wales and the NIP did the same in what was left in northern England. Labour ended up with just 91 seats, their worst tally for over a century, whilst the NIP won 71 seats, having not even managed to win a single one four years earlier. Plaid won 16 seats, becoming the joint largest Welsh party at Westminster and winning a majority in the Senedd elections on the same day. The victory in the latter led to the party calling for a referendum on Welsh independence, whilst Burnham and the NIP declared that it was time for full devolution for the North.
The Conservatives celebrated the doom of the Labour Party, but in its place two growing political movements were born, threatening to rip apart political unions that had existed for over a millennium.