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Airesien's Test Thread

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The Scottish National Party (SNP; Scots: Scots National Pairty, Scottish Gaelic: Pàrtaidh Nàiseanta na h-Alba) is a Scottish nationalist, liberal political party in Scotland. The SNP supports and campaigns for both Scottish devolution and Scottish independence from the United Kingdom. The SNP is the third largest party in Scotland by membership, behind the Scottish Labour Party and the Scottish Democratic Party, with over 25,000 members. It is also the fourth largest party in terms of MPs (currently sending 1 MP to Westminster) and fourth in terms of seats at local level with 125 local councillors.

Founded in 1934 with the amalgamation of the National Party of Scotland and the Scottish Party, the party saw some limited success at local level in the 1960s and 1970s before electing its first MP to Parliament at the 1981 general election, although they would lose that seat at the next election in 1984. It reached its electoral peak in the 1996–2000 Parliament when it had three MPs at Westminster, having elected two at the 1996 election and elected a third in the 1998 Hamilton by-election. Despite this, its popularity has declined in recent years, with the party being plagued with infighting and being forced to contend with a growing number of splinter parties for a shrinking pool of nationalist votes. Its only representative above council level is Brendan MacNeil, the MP for the Western Isles.

The SNP is an observer member of the European Regionalist Alliance (ERA), a collection of separatist European political parties. The party does not have any members of the House of Lords, as it has maintained a position of objecting to an unelected upper house.
 
1997–2004: Tony Blair (Labour)
1997 (Majority) def. John Major (Conservative), Paddy Ashdown (Liberal Democrats)
2001 (Majority) def. Michael Howard (Conservative), Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrat)
2004–2013: Gordon Brown (Labour)
2004 (Majority) def. Ken Clarke (Conservative), Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrat)
2008 (Majority) def. Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrat), Iain Duncan Smith (Conservative), Alex Salmond (SNP), Nick Griffin (BNP)
2013–2016: Angela Watkinson (Conservative)
2013 (Minority) def. Gordon Brown (Labour), Danny Alexander (Liberal Democrat), Alex Salmond (SNP), Nick Griffin (BNP)
2014 (Coalition with Liberal Democrat) def. Alan Johnson (Labour), Danny Alexander (Liberal Democrat), Alex Salmond (SNP), Nick Griffin (BNP)
2015 Electoral Reform referendum: no (59.3%) def. yes (40.7%)
2016–2021: Greg Hands (Conservative)
2019 (Majority) def. Jonathan Ashworth (Labour), Steven Woolfe (UKIP), Alex Salmond (SNP), Danny Alexander (Liberal Democrat), Jonathan Bartley & Sîan Berry (Green)
2021 EU referendum: leave (55.5%) def. remain (44.5%)
 
Airesien said:
Unionist Party #6666FF
2016 result: 376 seats, 43.9%
Centre-right to right-wing. The dominant party in UK politics. Economically liberal, predominantly social conservative, mostly Eurosceptic. Stands candidates in all four nations and has the support of most of the unionist community in Northern Ireland, although it has been losing support to the more extreme UUUP. Currently led by Andrew Gove, MP for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine.

Labour Party #DC241F
2016 result: 241 seats, 35.5%
Similar to OTL, although a bit more socially conservative (however still more progressive than the Unionists). Generally in favour of integration with Europe but has stronger Eurosceptic streaks and used to be fiercely divided on the subject until its moderation in the late 90s and early 2000s. Currently led by Daniel Jarvis, MP for Derby South.

Social Democratic Party (SDP) #FDBB30
2016 result: 16 seats, 12.6%
Created in the 1970s by MPs from the centre who left the radicalising Unionist and Labour parties. Socially and economically liberal. Does generally well in local elections but has failed to translate this to Westminster level. Has its best results in areas where it has developed roots over a long period of time or in studenty urban seats. Led by Chuka Umunna, MP for Bermondsey and Old Southwark.

United Ulster Unionist Party (UUUP) #cc5500
2016 result: 4 seats, 0.5%
Split from the Unionist Party in protest at the creation of a devolved legislature for Northern Ireland in the 1980s, although it did eventually shift to support the legislature as time went on. Right-wing, strongly unionist, has links to the unionist paramilitaries. Struggled to gain support at Westminster level despite strong results in the NI Assembly although it won 4 seats in 2016, its best ever result. Expected to make gains at the expense of the Unionists. Led by Diane Dodds, MLA for Lagan Valley in the NI Assembly.

Plaid Cymru #008142
2016 result: 4 seats, 0.5%
Same as OTL. Led by Neil McEvoy.

Sinn Fein #326760
2016 result: 4 seats, 0.4%
Same as OTL. Led by Pearse Doherty.

Nationalist Party of Northern Ireland (NPNI) #32cd32
2016 result: 2 seats, 0.4%
Similar to OTL SDLP, just under a different name. In favour of Irish unification, has links to the UK Labour Party and generally follows the party whip in the Commons, although not always. Led by Fearghal McKinney, MLA for Belfast South in the NI Assembly.

Socialist–Green Alliance (SGA) #85de59
2016 result: 1 seat, 2.6%
Founded by a merger of the Green Party and the Democratic Socialist Party, the latter of whom split from the Labour Party in the 1990s. Only has 1 MP but polling suggests they could pick up a number of seats. Democratic socialist, environmentalist, radical. Led by Clive Lewis, the party's only MP in Norwich South.

Scottish National Party #9966CC
2016 result: 1 seat, 0.9%
Similar to OTL, a bit more conservative and Eurosceptic. Experienced a strong surge in support during the 2018 Scottish Assembly election that saw it become the Official Opposition in the chamber and polling suggests it is set to take votes from both the Unionists and Labour north of the border in Westminster. It has strong hopes of recovering from its electoral nadir in 2016. Led by Douglas Hosie, MSP for Dundee West and Leader of the Opposition in the Scottish Assembly.
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Time Enough said:
1945-1954: Clement Attlee (Labour)
1945 (Majority) def: Anthony Eden replacing Winston Churchill (Conservative), Archibald Sinclair (Liberal)
1950 (Majority) def: Anthony Eden (Conservative & National), Archibald Sinclair (Liberal)
1954-1962: Gwilym Lloyd George (National Liberal, then Unionist)
1954 (Majority) def: Clement Attlee (Labour)
1959 (Majority) def: Hugh Gaitskell (Labour)
1962-1970: James Callaghan (Labour)
1962 (Majority) def: Gwilym Lloyd George (Unionist)
1966 (Majority) def: Quentin Hogg (Unionist)
1970-1977: Reginald Maudling (Unionist)
1970 (Majority) def: James Callaghan (Labour)
1974 (Majority) def: Eric Varley (Labour), Dick Taverne (Campaign for Democratic Socialism)
1977-1981: Terence O’Neill (Unionist)
1978 (Coalition with Social Democratic Party) def: Eric Varley (Labour), Bill Rodgers (Social Democratic Party)
1981-1989: Peter Shore (Labour)
1981 (Majority) def: Terence O'Neill (Unionist), Bill Rodgers (SDP), William Craig (UUUP)
1985 (Majority) def: Timothy Raison (Unionist), Tim Rathbone (SDP)
1989-1993: Jack Straw (Labour)
1989 (Majority) def: Timothy Raison (Unionist), Tim Rathbone (SDP)
1993-2005: Tom King (Unionist)
1993 (Coalition with Social Democrats) def: Jack Straw (Labour), Mike Thomas (SDP), Dierdre Wood-'Lol' Duffy (Democratic Socialist)
1997 (Majority) def: David Blunkett (Labour), Mike Thomas (SDP), 'Lol' Duffy-Peg Alexander (SGA)
2002 (Majority) def: David Blunkett (Labour), Nick Harvey (SDP)
2005-2009: Eleanor Laing (Unionist)
2005 (Majority) def: Malcolm Wicks (Labour), Nick Harvey (SDP)
2009-2016: Jon Cruddas (Labour)
2009 (Majority) def: Eleanor Laing (Unionist), Andrew Adonis (SDP)
2013 (Coalition with Social Democrats) def: Andrew Gove (Unionist), Julia Goldsworthy (SDP)
2016-: Andrew Gove (Unionist)
2016 (Majority) def: Jon Cruddas (Labour), Julia Goldsworthy (SDP)
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What do you think?
 
The title screen faded away, moving to a newsdesk with the letters 'BBC' embossed on the front of the desk. Sat at it was a balding man with a thick brown moustache and a pair of thick-rimmed glasses perched on his nose. He started talking immediately.

"Good evening and welcome to our Election Centre. During the past fifteen hours and, indeed, the past few weeks for those with a postal ballot, people across the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland have been voting for who will govern them for presumably the next five years. In all my time here at the British Broadcasting Corporation, I have never known an election quite as tight and as unpredictable as this," He emphasised the final part of his sentence by slamming his hand on the table in front of him. "It is no question that, unlike how it used to be in the nineteen seventies or early nineteen eighties, this is a two horse race but just which horse will hurdle over the finishing line first remains to be seen."

The presenter turned to a second camera to his left and the shot changed, revealing a screen behind him to his right. On it was a live clip of Big Ben and Westminster Bridge, the famous face of the clock tower illuminated in the dark, June night.

"We have just seconds to go until we can reveal the results of our exclusive exit poll, conducted for the BBC and the commercial networks. This exit poll is by no means fact but it is a good idea of exactly how Britain has voted in the twenty-twenty general election. We have asked seven thousand voters in over sixty polling stations across England, Scotland and Wales how they have voted today as they left the polling station and with the power of psephology, we can hopefully tell you what we think has happened tonight."

The sound of Big Ben's chimes could be heard and the presenter took a second to look down at his papers in front of him.

"And there it is. Ten o'clock and this is what our exit poll is saying..."
 
Airesien said:
"It is no question that, unlike how it used to be in the nineteen seventies or early nineteen eighties, this is a two horse race but just which horse will hurdle over the finishing line first remains to be seen."
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Oooh, what’s happening here?
 
Conservatives lose majority as Britain faces hung parliament
16th October 2020
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The Conservatives remain in pole position to stay in Government despite losing their majority in the House of Commons.

Despite genuine hopes of maintaining a majority in the House of Commons prior to yesterday, George Osborne's party are expected to win 305 seats in Parliament, a fall of 25 when compared to their result five years ago.

Labour have won 239 seats, an increase of just seven. Leader Andy Burnham conceded that the results were "not quite as positive" as the party had hoped, but he is set to resist calls to stand down until after a government has been formed.

Elsewhere, the SNP maintained their grip on the Scottish contingent in Westminster, winning 55 of the 59 seats north of the border, whilst UKIP made significant advances in both Tory and Labour heartlands, winning 18 seats. Leader Nigel Farage finally succeeded in entering Parliament, winning the seat of South Thanet with a majority of more than 3,000.

In other election developments:
  • The BBC forecast, with 649 of 650 seats declared, is Conservatives 305, Labour 239, the SNP 55, UKIP 18, the Lib Dems 10, Plaid Cymru 4, the Greens 1 and others 18.
  • The Conservatives are set to win 34% of the national vote, Labour 29%, UKIP 21%, the Lib Dems 7%, the SNP 4%, the Greens 3% and Plaid Cymru 1%.
  • George Osborne declared victory at his count in Tatton, telling socially distanced supporters that it was clear that the Conservatives had received a "vote of confidence" from the British electorate.
  • Andy Burnham has refused to concede the election, saying the results, whilst disappointing, nonetheless represented a "rejection of the Conservatives".
  • Lib Dem leader Tim Farron came within 250 votes of losing his seat of Westmorland and Lonsdale as his party fell back in terms of votes, although it made a net gain of two seats.
  • UKIP leader Nigel Farage said the election results were a "fundamental call for change" as he finally succeeded in his bid to enter Parliament in South Thanet. His party are expected to win more than a fifth of the popular vote.
  • The SNP had a much better night than expected, unseating Scottish Secretary David Mundell in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale but losing Edinburgh East and Fife North East to the Lib Dems.
  • The Greens held their only seat in Brighton Pavilion but failed to made advances in their other targets in a disappointing election for the party.
  • Plaid Cymru took the Lib Dem seat of Ceredigion and came close to also taking Ynys Mon from Labour.
  • Turnout is expected to reach 69%, the highest rate since 1997, with many voters opting to vote with a postal ballot due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
Conservatives have remained bullish about their chances of remaining in government, with the party expected to call for their Northern Irish allies the DUP and UUP in order to piece together a coalition needed to operate a working majority in the House of Commons.

Whilst 326 seats are technically needed for a majority, the presence of a newly-elected Speaker to replace John Bercow as well as three deputies and five Sinn Fein MPs who do not take their seats, reduces the size of the House of Commons to 641, meaning only 321 MPs are needed for an effective majority.

It is likely that the Conservatives will need the support of another party in order to govern, however, and given the ongoing pandemic Osborne will need to appeal to other parties to allow him to deal with the health crisis before calling another election at a later date.

Whilst a revival of the 2010-2015 coalition with the Liberal Democrats could be possible, a partnership with UKIP is unlikely given the party's key demand is likely to be a second referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, something Osborne has categorically ruled out.

Osborne gave no indication that his party would be seeking support in Parliament, instead he said he would be returning to Downing Street in order to prepare for the reopening of Parliament.

"Whilst there are still some seats to declare, it is clear that tonight the British public has given the Conservatives a vote of confidence. I will continue to govern in the interests of every person in our United Kingdom and will continue to do my upmost to ensure we beat back this virus and get our country on the road to recovery." he said.

He then returned to Downing Street and is expected to begin the process of securing the votes needed in the new House of Commons to pass a Queen's Speech.

Osborne's allies, including Chancellor Sajid Javid and Home Secretary Amber Rudd, have insisted that the results mean the Conservatives are the only viable party of government in the new Parliament.

However, despite being by far the largest party, the Tories are likely to be disappointed with their inability to hold onto their parliamentary majority. Polling indicated that the party could even make gains on their 2015 result, especially given this election was fought on more favourable constituency boundaries.

However the party fell backwards in terms of vote share and lost swathes of voters in some of its heartlands in Kent and Essex to UKIP. Tory MP Steve Baker, leader of the Eurosceptic European Research Group in Parliament, said that the results were a "damning verdict on the Prime Minister's refusal to listen on Europe".
 
Airesien said:
It's essentially my take on "what if politics was boring over the past few years". Burnham wins the 2015 Labour leadership election, remain wins the EU referendum, Cameron makes way for Osborne in 2018 who has to hold a delayed 2020 election in the middle of COVID.
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Its a nice take on that!
 
Labour begrudgingly getting 7 seats is a nice change from ‘Burnham Bulldozes The Tory’ ideas that pop up in the Pop sphere (though the most common idea I’ve seen on Alternate History places is Burnham-Lamb coalition).
 
Time Enough said:
Labour begrudgingly getting 7 seats is a nice change from ‘Burnham Bulldozes The Tory’ ideas that pop up in the Pop sphere (though the most common idea I’ve seen on Alternate History places is Burnham-Lamb coalition).
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I know Burnham-Lamb was something iainbhx did in his Election 2020 timeline. To be honest I think either is plausible but Labour has a very big issue with its branding amongst the electorate even in a TL without all the Brexit debacles and I think regardless of leader it is going to struggle to repair that.

In this whilst remainers stay pretty much where they are leavers are coalescing more and more around UKIP as the only party representing them. Labour aren’t getting many Tory switchers they’re pretty much staying still but they pick up a couple of seats due to Tory voters going to UKIP or not voting. I think the Tories would probably get a bit of a rally round the flag bounce during a covid election but nothing compared to what they’ve got at the moment with the vaccine bounce. So I felt like UKIP finally breaking into parliament and the Tories being hit the hardest by this but the other parties pretty much standing still was the most likely outcome.
 
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