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Airesien's Test Thread

screenshot-en.wikipedia.org-2021.08.02-07_34_45.png The 2013 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday, 14 March 2013 to elect 650 members to the House of Commons. Although the election had not been due to take place until 2015, it was called after the Cameron–Clegg coalition collapsed at the end of 2012 and the Liberal Democrats sided with other opposition parties to pass a vote of no confidence in the Conservatives.

After the 2010 general election, the Liberal Democrats led by Nick Clegg had entered into coalition with the Conservatives. Disagreements over some policies, such as the pace and depth of swingeing spending cuts, were compounded by the failure of the Liberal Democrats' preferred voting system in the 2011 Alternative Vote referendum. Despite Clegg attempting to maintain the Coalition through to 2015, the party's grassroots and some of its MPs were keen for it to leave government, either to serve as an opposition party to a minority Conservative government or to trigger a fresh election. The so-called 'Christmas Coup' led to the party's MPs usurping Clegg, who was forced to stand down as leader on New Years' Eve 2012. Former Business Secretary Vince Cable, who had left the Cabinet after disagreements with the Government in early 2012, was installed as the party's new leader after no alternative came forward. Cable indicated that he supported holding a new election, describing the prospect of the Conservatives remaining in control of the country as a minority government as "untenable".

Shortly after Cable's election as leader the opposition Labour Party, led by David Miliband, tabled a vote of no confidence in the Government, which was passed the next day after most Liberal Democrats opted to support the motion (although some, including former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, abstained). Prime Minister David Cameron then instructed his MPs to support a dissolution of Parliament under the terms of the Fixed Terms Parliament Act in order to allow an election to take place on 14 March.

Opinion polls throughout the campaign suggested a solid Labour lead of around five to seven points. The polls also indicated a rise in support of the Eurosceptic UK Independence Party, who almost reached ten percent in some polls and threatened to tear away key support from both main parties, although the Conservatives were expected to be hit the hardest by an influx of voters to UKIP. The Liberal Democrats expected to lose a large number of seats but were hoping that their role in bringing down the Government would help them retain at least some of their voters.

The Labour Party saw an increase in their vote share of almost nine points compared to three years earlier and they made gains in every region of Great Britain with the exception of Scotland, where they actually made a net loss of seats. The Conservatives lost forty-two seats and fell back over four points compared to 2010, being returned to opposition after just under three years in government. As expected, the Liberal Democrats suffered heavy losses, however they retained most of their core support and a number of their sitting MPs benefitted from incumbency bonuses, which helped save their seat.

Elsewhere, the story of the election was the rise of the Scottish National Party, who made a net gain of eleven seats. For the first time since 1974 the party won seats in the Central Belt, whilst also benefitting from a fall in support of the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives in North East and South Scotland.

After the election, David Cameron announced his resignation as Conservative leader, whilst David Miliband went on to lead a Labour government with a very slim technical majority, occasionally relying on the support of its Northern Irish sister party the SDLP and the one Green MP Caroline Lucas. Vince Cable announced his intention to lead a root and branch review of the Liberal Democrats after its time in government, seeking to modernise the party and ensure it was fit for the rest of the 2010s, before stepping down the following year.
 
Very interesting; what's the PoD exactly? The election of banana man spurring the LD grassroots into action?
David's election is probably the PoD, he's doing a lot better in the polls and Lib Dems are doing worse and seriously hemorrhaging support to him. Add into that poorer behaviour from the Tories during the AV referendum and the MPs and grassroots end up getting cold feet and decide to pull the plug on the coalition.
 
David's election is probably the PoD, he's doing a lot better in the polls and Lib Dems are doing worse and seriously hemorrhaging support to him. Add into that poorer behaviour from the Tories during the AV referendum and the MPs and grassroots end up getting cold feet and decide to pull the plug on the coalition.

Really interesting. Do you think the Labour victory changes anything re Scotland? Obviously here I'm assuming the main reason Labour holds on in Scotland is because it predates IndyRef; does David stick to the Edinburgh Agreement?
 
Really interesting. Do you think the Labour victory changes anything re Scotland? Obviously here I'm assuming the main reason Labour holds on in Scotland is because it predates IndyRef; does David stick to the Edinburgh Agreement?
You’re right that Labour do much better because it’s pre-2014. David does stick to the Edinburgh Agreement and ‘yes’ fares a little worse in the referendum but not by much and Labour do still take part in Better Together to try and win it at all costs. I might end up putting together a 2017 box to show what happens to Labour in Scotland but as you can imagine it’s not too dissimilar to OTL.
 
You’re right that Labour do much better because it’s pre-2014. David does stick to the Edinburgh Agreement and ‘yes’ fares a little worse in the referendum but not by much and Labour do still take part in Better Together to try and win it at all costs. I might end up putting together a 2017 box to show what happens to Labour in Scotland but as you can imagine it’s not too dissimilar to OTL.

Very interesting. I recall an SNPer friend saying that in 2017 an awful lot of seats weren't so much SNP landslides but instead three-way marginals (SNP/LAB/CON in most cases); wonder if that plays out here too, and also wonder if there's a possibility of a second Edinburgh South (well-known MP really buckles in and becames somewhat of a Labour safe seat, despite the SNP flood).

Regardless really hope you continue on with this TL, it has my interest piqued!
 
With this leader's defeat, the thread of prophecy is severed.

I think Castle Point as well as South Basildon and East Thurrock would go UKIP, though the latter could go Labour. Wyre Forest too seems like the sort of constituency which could go to Labour on those numbers, as does The Wrekin. No way the Tories lose Beckenham.
 
With this leader's defeat, the thread of prophecy is severed.

I think Castle Point as well as South Basildon and East Thurrock would go UKIP, though the latter could go Labour. Wyre Forest too seems like the sort of constituency which could go to Labour on those numbers, as does The Wrekin. No way the Tories lose Beckenham.
Oops, I think Beckenham is a mistake. I agree no way it goes Labour.

EDIT: Map has been amended. Labour win South Basildon and East Thurrock instead of Beckenham, which stays resolutely Tory.
 
How does Ed win?
Avoids major gaffs (no Ed-Stone, no bacon sandwich-gate), Cameron doesn’t offer an EU referendum so loses votes to UKIP, Labour lead an independent campaign for No in the Scottish referendum meaning they keep a lot of their Scottish voters and of course a nice sprinkle of ASB because even with all these factors I doubt Miliband would’ve been able to win a majority, let alone a landslide.
 
screenshot-en.wikipedia.org-2021.08.26-10_40_26.png
The 2019 United Kingdom general election in London was held on 2 May 2019 and all 73 seats in London were contested under the first-past-the-post electoral system.

The election was the first contested by the centrist Metropolitan Party, which only stood in seats in Greater London. The Metropolitan Party won 62 of London's 73 seats in a landslide victory. Despite enjoying a positive result nationally, the Liberal Party suffered its worst ever result in the capital, losing 27 of the 33 seats it held after the 2015 election. The Unionist Party, who went into the election in government at the national level, suffered a similar collapse in fortunes, holding onto just five of their London seats. The left-wing Social Democratic Party (SDP), led by Claudia Webbe, lost all of their seats in the capital, just four years after their strongest ever showing in London. Webbe lost her own seat of Islington South and Finsbury, seeing her majority flip from over 5,000 in her favour to a deficit of over 10,000 in favour of the Metropolitan candidate Zack Polanski.

The election result in London saw several frontbench MPs from the three main parties lose their place in the House of Commons: the Unionists saw Home Office Minister Chris Malthouse, Foreign Office Minister Mark Field and Assistant Whip Victoria Borwick lose their seats as well as former Mayor of London Andrew Boff, whilst the biggest casualty on election night for the Liberals was Chuka Umunna, the Shadow Home Secretary, whose own seemingly unassaible majority of well over 15,000 in Vauxhall vanished in one fell swoop. The SDP lost Foreign Spokesperson and former journalist Owen Jones, Equalities Spokesperson Dawn Butler and Communities Spokesperson Rokhsana Fiaz. Long-serving MP Diane Abbott, who had served in several frontbench positions for the SDP in her Westminster career which stretched back to the 1988 election, narrowly lost her own seat of Tottenham despite her personal popularity locally. Post-election analysis suggested that the Metropolitan Party took voters from all three traditional major parties, with younger and BAME voters most likely to switch their vote to them.

The election result is considered an electoral earthquake and put into question exactly what London's position was in the United Kingdom. One of the Metropolitan Party's key offerings as part of their election manifesto was to push for further devolution in the capital, including the establishment of a devolved legislature, something vehemently opposed by the Unionists and unfavoured by the Liberals. Metropolitan leader Siobhan Benita, who did not stand in the election ahead of her bid for the London mayoralty in 2020, said that giving the Mayor's office powers over tax and law and establishing a "London Assembly" were a "red line" for her party in post-election coalition negotiations. Metropolitan deputy leader Sadiq Khan, who had previously served as leader of Wandsworth Council as a Liberal between 2007 and 2011 and who was elected to the seat of Battersea, would become the party's leader in the Commons after the election.
 
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