Thandean Representation: The 2015 and 2019 Canadian Federal Elections Under Another Voting System

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

Utter West (i.e. British Columbia)

2015
Liberals 17/42 - 35.1% popular vote, 40.5% seats
Conservatives 10/42 - 29.9% popular vote, 23.8% seats
New Democrats 14/42 - 26.0% popular vote, 33.3% seats
Greens 1/42 - 8.3% popular vote, 2.4% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 17/42 - 35.1% popular vote, 40.5% seats
Conservatives 14/42 - 29.9% popular vote, 33.3% seats
New Democrats 10/42 - 26.0% popular vote, 23.8% seats
Greens 1/42 - 8.3% popular vote, 2.4% seats

2019
Liberals 11/42 - 26.3% popular vote, 26.2% seats
Conservatives 17/42 - 33.9% popular vote, 40.5% seats
New Democrats 11/42 - 24.6% popular vote, 26.2% seats
Greens 2/42 - 12.4% popular vote, 4.8% seats
Jody Wilson-Raybould 1/42
THANDEREP
Liberals 13/42 - 26.3% popular vote, 31.0% seats
Conservatives 18/42 - 33.9% popular vote, 42.9% seats
New Democrats 9/42 - 24.6% popular vote, 21.4% seats
Greens 2/42 - 12.4% popular vote, 4.8% seats

The third-place NDP are the most hard-done-by in BC under THANDEREP, in large part because they are dominant in certain areas (so THANDEREP undoes their false sweeps, often reducing them to one seat) and utterly uncompetitive in others, leaving them no compensatory gains. The better-spread Liberals and Conservatives pick up the minority seat allocations, and the Greens are just shy of a second MP in 2015 (Jo-Ann Roberts of Victoria).

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

So I've got some spreadsheet work to get nationwide percentages in 2015, and to include minor parties & independents between Saskatchewan & Quebec in 2019. With that proviso out of the way, here are the final seat-counts!

BC

2015	Seats (FPTP)	Seats (THANDEREP)
Liberals	17	17
Conservatives	10	14
New Democrats	14	10
Greens	1	1
Other	0	0

2019	Popular Vote %	Seats (FPTP)	Seats (THANDEREP)
Liberals	26.3	11	13
Conservatives	33.9	17	18
New Democrats	24.6	11	9
Greens	12.4	2	2
Other		1	0

NATIONWIDE, THE WHOLE SHEBANG

2015	Seats (FPTP)	Seats (THANDEREP)
Liberals	184	141
Conservatives	99	122
New Democrats	44	51
Bloquistes	10	15
Greens	1	1
Other	0	0

2019	Popular Vote (%)	Seats (FPTP)	Seats (THANDEREP)
Liberals	33.3	155	141
Conservatives	34.6	121	132
New Democrats	16.1	24	30
Bloquistes	7.7	32	30
Greens	6.6	3	5
Other		1	0

Two Liberal minorities under THANDEREP, with either the New Democrats or the Bloc sufficient to keep them in the confidence of the House. NDP alone could tip the balance in favour of Harper in 2015 (just barely), but though Scheer is only nine seats back in 2019 he'd have to get both the New Democrats and the Bloc to support him in. In practice the margin, though slender, could only realistically go one way, but it's a damned close-run thing all the same.