Thandean Representation: The 2015 and 2019 Canadian Federal Elections Under Another Voting System

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

The Story So Far

Prairies

2015	Seats (FPTP)	Seats (THANDEREP)
Liberals	12	17
Conservatives	44	37
New Democrats	6	6
Greens	0	0
Other	0	0

2019	Popular Vote (%)	Seats (FPTP)	Seats (THANDEREP)
Liberals	15.9	4	6
Conservatives	64.0	54	50
New Democrats	14.8	4	6
Greens	3.2	0	0
Other		0	0

Nationwide (East of the Rockies, excluding territories)

2015	Seats (FPTP)	Seats (THANDEREP)
Liberals	164	140
Conservatives	89	108
New Democrats	30	41
Bloquistes	10	15
Greens	0	0
Other	0	0

2019	Popular Vote (%)	Seats (FPTP)	Seats (THANDEREP)
Liberals	34.4	144	126
Conservatives	34.7	104	114
New Democrats	14.8	12	20
Bloquistes	9.0	32	30
Greens	5.6	1	3
Other		0	0

In 2015 with just BC and the North left to go it's looking like a Liberal majority is off the table; they'd need 30 of the remaining 45 seats (and under First-Past-the-Post they'd net 20). The First-Past-The-Post election is effectively over, as they're six shy of majority territory.

2019 has turned into a real nail-biter, with only twelve seats separating Trudeau and Scheer, who were under First-Past-the-Post on track to pick up 13 and 17 more, respectively, and so the pundits are now discussing how each leader will need support from two third parties to form government, and whether the Greens will add enough seats to be viably counted as one of those two.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

Here are the territories in one post, because I really can't be bothered about places where ten thousand votes constitutes a landslide (indeed, in Nunavut, fewer than ten thousand votes were cast in 2019).

feel free to award necrolikes when the above sentence forces my resignation from Parliament in thirty years

YUKON
2015: Larry Bagnell
2019: Larry Bagnell

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
2015: Michael McLeod
2019: Michael McLeod

NUNAVUT
2015: Hunter Tootoo
2019: Mumilaaq Qaqqaq

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

KOOTENAY
Kootenay—Columbia
South Okanagan—West Kootenay

2015 Members Elected
Kootenay—Columbia – Wayne Stetski
South Okanagan—West Kootenay – Richard Cannings

THANDEREP
KOOTENAY 1. Richard Cannings 2. David Wilks

2019 Members Elected
Kootenay—Columbia – Rob Morrison
South Okanagan—West Kootenay – Richard Cannings

THANDEREP
KOOTENAY 1. Rob Morrison 2. Richard Cannings

So it begins. These ridings in the southern Rockies are Conservative-New Democrat marginals; Stetski won by a couple hundred votes in 2015, Cannings by seventy-six the next election. THANDEREP recognizes this and awards the parties one seat each; a third seat would make things properly interesting, going first to the Liberals and then to the Conservatives.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

OKANAGAN
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola
Kelowna—Lake Country
North Okanagan—Shuswap

2015 Members Elected
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola – Dan Albas
Kelowna—Lake Country – Stephen Fuhr
North Okanagan—Shuswap – Mel Arnold

THANDEREP
OKANAGAN 1. Mel Arnold 2. Stephen Fuhr 3. Jacqui Gingras

2019 Members Elected
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola – Dan Albas
Kelowna—Lake Country – Tracy Gray
North Okanagan—Shuswap – Mel Arnold

THANDEREP
OKANAGAN 1. Mel Arnold 2. Stephen Fuhr 3. Tracy Gray

The heart of this group of ridings is the city of Kelowna, larger than any urban centre in the province save Vancouver & Victoria. It's got a good-size Liberal vote but the weakest New Democrat vote and PPC vote of the bunch. The Green data is murky, as in 2015 the Green Party candidate immediately endorsed the Liberal candidate and withdrew. The NDP squeeze a candidate in by about three hundred votes in 2015, and it's more Conservative strengthening than New Democrat weakening that costs Gingras her seat in 2019.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

CARIBOO
Cariboo—Prince George
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo

2015 Members Elected
Cariboo—Prince George – Todd Doherty
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo – Cathy McLeod

THANDEREP
CARIBOO 1. Cathy McLeod 2. Steve Powrie

2019 Members Elected
Cariboo—Prince George – Todd Doherty
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo – Cathy McLeod

THANDEREP
CARIBOO 1. Cathy McLeod 2. Terry Lake

Let no one say that THANDEREP takes out the knife-edge results, as in 2019 the Liberals squeak a candidate in by just fifteen votes! The gravitational centre of the pair is definitely in the southern one - Kamloops is a significant urban centre - so it's not surprising that no THANDEREP MP is from Cariboo—Prince George.

Why, oh why, must two enormous ridings bisect the town of Prince George?

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

A quick breakdown

BC Southern Interior
2015
Liberals 1/7 - 31.9% popular vote, 14.3% seats
Conservatives 4/7 - 36.8% popular vote, 57.1% seats
New Democrats 2/7 - 27.4% popular vote, 28.6% seats
Greens 0/7 - 3.9% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 2/7 - 31.9% popular vote, 28.6% seats
Conservatives 3/7 - 36.8% popular vote, 42.9% seats
New Democrats 2/7 - 27.4% popular vote, 28.6% seats
Greens 0/7 - 3.9% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 0/7 - 22.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Conservatives 6/7 - 45.6% popular vote, 85.7% seats
New Democrats 1/7 - 20.5% popular vote, 14.3% seats
Greens 0/7 - 9.3% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 2/7 - 22.2% popular vote, 28.6% seats
Conservatives 4/7 - 45.6% popular vote, 57.1% seats
New Democrats 1/7 - 20.5% popular vote, 14.3% seats
Greens 0/7 - 9.3% popular vote, 0.0% seats

In 2015 THANDEREP lets the New Democrats exchange a Kootenay seat for an Okanagan one, but 2019 sees them shut out without compensation. The Liberals are the big winners in the region, however, picking up three seats over the two elections over and above what FPTP granted them.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

Three more single-seater districts in a hurry; there's an election on, after all.

BRITISH COLUMBIA NORTHEASTERN
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies

2015: Bob Zimmer
2019: Bob Zimmer

Basically everything north-but-not-northwest of Prince George, but I couldn't think of a poetic way to say it. Way too big to add to Cariboo.

SKEENA & BULKLEY VALLEY
Skeena—Bulkley Valley

2015: Nathan Cullen
2019: Taylor Bachrach

The coastal half of the North. Could go Conservative under the right circumstances but that's presently unlikely.

NORTH ISLAND & POWELL RIVER
North Island—Powell River

2015: Rachel Blaney
2019: Rachel Blaney

Small, as single-seaters go, and there is a 2-seater riding neighbouring it, but folks, you don't really want to see Großnorthshore.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

The Island and the Lower Mainland are all that's left; here we go!

FRASER VALLEY
Abbotsford
Chilliwack—Hope
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon

2015 Members Elected
Abbotsford – Ed Fast
Chilliwack—Hope – Mark Strahl
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon – Jati Sidhu

THANDEREP
FRASER VALLEY 1. Ed Fast 2. Louise De Jaeger 3. Mark Strahl

2019 Members Elected
Abbotsford – Ed Fast
Chilliwack—Hope – Mark Strahl
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon – Brad Vis

THANDEREP
FRASER VALLEY 1. Mark Strahl 2. Ed Fast 3. Jati Sidhu

It's fun to glance at the minor parties column; I'd been stereotyping the area and expecting to see a slate of Christian Heritage candidates, but no! The party running in all three ridings in 2015 were the Marxist-Leninists! (In 2019 each minor party ran two.)

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

SURREY SOUTH & LANGLEY
Cloverdale—Langley City
Langley—Aldergrove
South Surrey—White Rock

2015 Members Elected
Cloverdale—Langley City – John Aldag
Langley—Aldergrove – Mark Warawa
South Surrey—White Rock – Dianne Lynn Watts

THANDEREP
SURREY SOUTH & LANGLEY 1. Mark Warawa 2. John Aldag 3. Dianne Lynn Watts

2019 Members Elected
Cloverdale—Langley City – Tamara Jansen
Langley—Aldergrove – Tako van Popta
South Surrey—White Rock – Kerry-Lynne Findlay

THANDEREP
SURREY SOUTH & LANGLEY 1. Tako van Popta 2. Gordie Hogg 3. Kerry-Lynne Findlay

Still 2-party country, unlike most of the rest of Metro Vancouver. One swing riding, which THANDEREP recognizes as representative of a sizable minority worth a seat.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

SURREY NORTH
Fleetwood—Port Kells
Surrey Centre
Surrey—Newton

2015 Members Elected
Fleetwood—Port Kells – Ken Hardie
Surrey Centre – Randeep Sarai
Surrey—Newton – Sukh Dhaliwal

THANDEREP
SURREY NORTH 1. Sukh Dhaliwal 2. Jasbir Sandhu 3. Ken Hardie

2019 Members Elected
Fleetwood—Port Kells – Ken Hardie
Surrey Centre – Randeep Singh Sarai
Surrey—Newton – Sukh Dhaliwal

THANDEREP
SURREY NORTH 1. Sukh Dhaliwal 2. Shinder Purewal 3. Harjit Singh Gill

The Liberal sweep is pretty fragile on the south bank of the Fraser - the NDP incumbent in Surrey Centre survives in 2015 and the Conservatives pick off another seat in 2019 once votes are merged.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

TRI-CITIES & RIDGE MEADOWS
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
Port Moody—Coquitlam

2015 Members Elected
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam – Ron McKinnon
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge – Dan Ruimy
Port Moody—Coquitlam – Fin Donnelly

THANDEREP
TRI-CITIES & RIDGE MEADOWS 1. Ron McKinnon 2. Douglas Horne 3. Fin Donnelly

2019 Members Elected
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam – Ron McKinnon
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge – Marc Dalton
Port Moody—Coquitlam – Nelly Shin

THANDEREP
TRI-CITIES & RIDGE MEADOWS 1. Ron McKinnon 2. Nicholas Insley 3. Bonita Zarrillo

My own fair (citation not needed - suck it, Doncaster!) home, the cities of Port Moody, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, and Maple Ridge. Tight three-way races are the norm here, and unfortunately THANDEREP brings the 2015 tally of "useless partisan lumps running in Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam returned" up to two. McKinnon & Horne, what a pair.

The retirement of UPLB Fin Donnelly seemed to cost the New Democrats his seat, but under THANDEREP that shift is revealed to be comparatively slight.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

BURNABY & NEW WESTMINSTER
Burnaby North—Seymour
Burnaby South
New Westminster—Burnaby

2015 Members Elected
Burnaby North—Seymour – Terry Beech
Burnaby South – Kennedy Stewart
New Westminster—Burnaby – Peter Julian

THANDEREP
BURNABY & NEW WESTMINSTER 1. Peter Julian 2. Terry Beech 3. Mike Little

2019 Members Elected
Burnaby North—Seymour – Terry Beech
Burnaby South – Jagmeet Singh
New Westminster—Burnaby – Peter Julian

THANDEREP
BURNABY & NEW WESTMINSTER 1. Peter Julian 2. Terry Beech 3. Jay Shin

Another leader crowded out by an electoral titan standing in a neighbouring safe seat. There's a Conservative minority in these towns that is worth some of the New Democrats' representation, and were THANDEREP real you can bet your boots Singh would pick up votes off Julian and the other NDP candidate, Svend Robinson.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

RICHMOND & DELTA
Delta
Richmond Centre
Steveston—Richmond East

2015 Members Elected
Delta – Carla Qualtrough
Richmond Centre – Alice Wong
Steveston—Richmond East – Joe Peschisolido

THANDEREP
RICHMOND & DELTA 1. Carla Qualtrough 2. Kerry-Lynne Findlay 3. Joe Peschisolido

2019 Members Elected
Delta – Carla Qualtrough
Richmond Centre – Alice Wong
Steveston—Richmond East – Kenny Chiu

THANDEREP
RICHMOND & DELTA 1. Alice Wong 2. Carla Qualtrough 3. Tanya Corbert

The southwestern corner of Metro Vancouver, with a sizable Asian population in Richmond, was all Conservative in 2011. THANDEREP confirms the swing riding is real, and the community-wide trend is the same as the seat-by-seat aggregate result. The Delta Conservative gets seated opposite Qualtrough both go-rounds, and Findlay is the same who THANDEREP elected in Surrey South & Langley in 2019.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

*VANCOUVER EAST
Vancouver East
Vancouver Kingsway
Vancouver South

2015 Members Elected
Vancouver East – Jenny Kwan
Vancouver Kingsway – Don Davies
Vancouver South – Harjit Sajjan

THANDEREP
*VANCOUVER EAST 1. Jenny Kwan 2. Harjit Sajjan 3. Wai Young

2019 Members Elected
Vancouver East – Jenny Kwan
Vancouver Kingsway – Don Davies
Vancouver South – Harjit Sajjan

THANDEREP
*VANCOUVER EAST 1. Jenny Kwan 2. Harjit Sajjan 3. Wai Young

You can divide Vancouver more or less along Main Street, as I have done. The east, especially the northeast, trends a little poorer, and is reliably New Democratic - Davies and Kwan are veterans. Unfortunately Davies is sidelined to make room for the Conservatives, but in 2019 he loses by only about 400 votes.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

VANCOUVER WEST
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Granville
Vancouver Quadra

2015 Members Elected
Vancouver Centre – Hedy Fry
Vancouver Granville – Jody Wilson-Raybould
Vancouver Quadra – Joyce Murray

THANDEREP
VANCOUVER WEST 1. Hedy Fry 2. Joyce Murray 3. Erinn Broshko

2019 Members Elected
Vancouver Centre – Hedy Fry
Vancouver Granville – Jody Wilson-Raybould
Vancouver Quadra – Joyce Murray

THANDEREP
VANCOUVER WEST 1. Hedy Fry 2. Kathleen Dixon 3. Joyce Murray

Western Vancouver (not West Vancouver, we're getting there) is broadly wealthy and establishment-friendly, so Liberals tend to do well, but some go for Conservatives and THANDEREP rewards them with one seat.

Under TOPVOTE Jody Wilson-Raybould finishes comfortably second (and would displace Murray), but was harmed by her inability to count votes in the other two ridings as the Conservatives and Liberals could. She doesn't sit in 2015 either, as the lowest-ranking Liberal.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

NORTH SHORE
North Vancouver
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country

2015 Members Elected
North Vancouver – Jonathan Wilkinson
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country – Pam Goldsmith-Jones

THANDEREP
NORTH SHORE 1. Jonathan Wilkinson 2. Pam Goldsmith-Jones

2019 Members Elected
North Vancouver – Jonathan Wilkinson
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country – Patrick Weiler

THANDEREP
NORTH SHORE 1. Jonathan Wilkinson 2. Gabrielle Loren

These are the ridings I'm not lumping in with Powell River. Similar story to Western Vancouver, but thanks to its smaller size the Conservatives are frozen out in 2015.

I'd originally planned to do all three North Shore ridings together, but Seymour is conjoined with Burnaby North! What do they have in common?? Ultimately Burnaby's need was the greater.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

Metro Vancouver

2015
Liberals 15/23 - 42.8% popular vote, 65.2% seats
Conservatives 3/23 - 28.6% popular vote, 13.0% seats
New Democrats 5/23 - 23.2% popular vote, 21.7% seats
Greens 0/23 - 4.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 12/23 - 42.8% popular vote, 52.2% seats
Conservatives 7/23 - 28.6% popular vote, 30.4% seats
New Democrats 4/23 - 23.2% popular vote, 17.4% seats
Greens 0/23 - 4.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 11/23 - 33.7% popular vote, 47.8% seats
Conservatives 7/23 - 29.8% popular vote, 30.4% seats
New Democrats 4/23 - 24.5% popular vote, 17.4% seats
Greens 0/23 - 8.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Jody Wilson-Raybould 1/23
THANDEREP
Liberals 9/23 - 33.7% popular vote, 39.1% seats
Conservatives 10/23 - 29.8% popular vote, 43.5% seats
New Democrats 4/23 - 24.5% popular vote, 17.4% seats
Greens 0/23 - 8.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats


Another place THANDEREP gives the most seats, oddly, to the second-most-popular province. A number, also, of enduring three-way splits.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

GREATER VICTORIA & THE GULF ISLANDS
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke
Saanich—Gulf Islands
Victoria

2015 Members Elected
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke – Randall Garrison
Saanich—Gulf Islands – Elizabeth May
Victoria – Murray Rankin

THANDEREP
GREATER VICTORIA & THE GULF ISLANDS 1. Elizabeth May 2. Murray Rankin 3. David Merner

2019 Members Elected
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke – Randall Garrison
Saanich—Gulf Islands – Elizabeth May
Victoria – Laurel Collins

THANDEREP
GREATER VICTORIA & THE GULF ISLANDS 1. Elizabeth May 2. Randall Garrison 3. Nikki Macdonald

Central Victoria is sympathetic territory for the Greens, who place a competitive second in both years. Nevertheless the Liberals squeak in in 2015 over a second Green MP, and the Green vote softens enough that the Liberal returned is much safer in 2019.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

VANCOUVER ISLAND
Courtenay—Alberni
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
Nanaimo—Ladysmith

2015 Members Elected
Courtenay—Alberni – Gord Johns
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford – Alistair MacGregor
Nanaimo—Ladysmith – Sheila Malcolmson

THANDEREP
VANCOUVER ISLAND 1. Gord Johns 2. John Duncan 3. Tim Tessier

2019 Members Elected
Courtenay—Alberni – Gord Johns
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford – Alistair MacGregor
Nanaimo—Ladysmith – Paul Manly

THANDEREP
VANCOUVER ISLAND 1. Gord Johns 2. Byron Horner 3. Paul Manly

Our last constituency before I tally everything up! Rural Vancouver Island is solidly New Democrat on the surface, but they only net one seat under THANDEREP. There's a Conservative presence - John Duncan was the incumbent for North Vancouver Island in 2011 - and the Green party surpasses the Liberals for third place in 2019.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

Southwestern British Columbia