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Thandean Representation: The 2015 and 2019 Canadian Federal Elections Under Another Voting System

VoiceInTheWilderness

Well-known member
Location
Vancouver, more or less
Pronouns
he/him
It's election season, so I've decided to pull the trigger on a project I've contemplated for some time.

Thandean Representation (I know no better name) was devised by Thande as a behind-the-scenes reform to bloc vote, which also addresses some of the problems I (and he) have with the modern election process. In modern elections (in the UK, from 1950) the country is divided into single-member districts, and in each the candidate receiving the most votes wins. This holds true even if that candidate receives fewer than 3 out of every 10 votes – 2 MPs currently sitting “won” their seats this way. More broadly, there may be communities divided into multiple ridings, where one party can sweep every riding on a minority of votes, and there was clearly sufficient opposition across the community to make the sweep seem inequitable. On the other hand I take several exceptions to conventional proportional-representation systems, especially the weak or nonexistent links communities have to any particular representative.

Thandean Representation works thusly (quoted from the original):

Thande said:
Get a constituency/district/ward that elects three members; it might be an existing OTL one that does this under bloc vote. Ideally all constituencies should elect three members, with VERY rare exceptions allowed for specific circumstances like isolated islands. Just as under bloc vote, every voter gets three votes which they can cast accordingly for any of the candidates regardless of party--usually every party should stand three candidates, and for reasons explained later minor or independent candidates should probably have a full slate of three even if the other two are paper candidates.

VoiceInTheWilderness note: This may be my Canadian-ness talking, but I favour giving each voter one vote, not three. In the Canadian case we're doing a reform of first-past-the-post, not bloc vote. Also, in that light, it is less important for an independent to stand paper allies, as there's no risk that their supporters will cast other votes for other parties, elevating rivals above them.

Once the votes are counted, calculate percentages under one of two methods--this is the main difference between the two variants of Thandean Representation which will be discussed here.

THANDEREP-ALLVOTE counts all of the votes cast for all candidates of a party to produce a total party vote and then sums all the party votes for a turnout figure, dividing the first by the second to calculate a percentage vote for that party.

THANDEREP-TOPVOTE only counts the votes cast for the leading candidate of each party, then sums these for a turnout figure and derives a percentage by the same way.

VoiceInTheWilderness note: I will only produce results for ALLVOTE in this project.

This is the only difference between the two methods. ALLVOTE clearly discriminates against parties/independents with only one candidate, whereas TOPVOTE allows a fairer hearing. ALLVOTE is generally better for parties that can command some level of support across a wider area, while TOPVOTE rewards those who can command particularly strong support in a small area.

Regardless of the method used, the three seats are then filled up accordingly:

The party with the highest percentage gets the first seat. Its percentage is then divided in two.

The party with the highest percentage now gets the second seat. This might be the second placed party from the start, or it might be the first party again if it has more than twice as many votes as the second. If it is the second, that party's percentage is now divided in two. if it is the first again, its STARTING percentage is divided in three.

The party with the highest percentage after these changes gets the final seat. It could be the third placed party from the start, or it could be the first party again.

Another way of looking at this in party-list PR (thanks to Owen for suggesting this) is that a vote for a party constitutes a full vote for the first candidate, 1/2 a vote for the second, 1/3 for the third. But this isn't party-list PR and the candidates aren't ranked from the start, so who decides which of the party's three candidates gets to take a seat first? The answer is the voters. Whichever candidate got the highest individual votes to start with is the top candidate, whichever got the second highest is the second candidate, etc. Therefore, the individual who tops the poll is always guaranteed a seat.

*****

This method returns results that look 'more reasonable' to my gut feeling.

If a party gets 71% of the vote across a 3-member constituency it seems reasonable for it to have all three seats with that overwhelming vote.

If a party gets only 49% and another party gets 35%, then it seems reasonable for the first party to get the first and third seats (rewarded for coming top) but the second party to get the second so its sizeable support base is represented.

If a party gets only 49% but the opposition splits between loads of parties with only ~10% each, then it seems reasonable for the first party to get all three seats because although it did not win a majority, there is no coherent, united strand of opposition that deserves representation in its own right, and it would be arbitrary to pick the opposition party that gets 12% rather than the ones who got 11%, 10%, 9%, 9%.

If the top three parties get 35%, 33%, 29% then it seems reasonable for all three to take a seat, because only a small nudge of the votes would be necessary to change this order and the leading party did not get much of a stand-out mandate worthy of additional representation.

Now these are just my gut feelings and you may well disagree, but these are the assumptions I put into this voting system.


To give us something to discuss, I've gone through the existing federal riding map and joined the ridings into groups of (usually) three. Extremely rural ridings (e.g. Kenora or Labrador) remain single, and where the numbers didn't add up to neat threes I created a few two-seaters (e.g. Cape Breton Island or Vancouver's North Shore) and four seaters (e.g. Prince Edward Island or Laval). This approach has a number of problems: varying electorate sizes, an only occasional correlation to natural communities, voters could only vote for candidates that stood in their own riding, and so on. Realistically, the Electoral Boundaries Commission would draw fresh and rational boundaries across the country. Still, it's more interesting than nothing, and exposes some trends that bubbled away beneath the surface.

It is to my great regret that the 2011 election was fought on a different map, because comparing the swing to 2015 would have been enormously interesting.
 
NEW BRUNSWICK WESTERN
Fredericton
New Brunswick Southwest
Tobique—Mactaquac

2015 Members Elected
Fredericton – Matt DeCourcey
New Brunswick Southwest – Karen Ludwig
Tobique—Mactaquac – T. J. Harvey

THANDEREP
NEW BRUNSWICK WESTERN 1. Matt DeCourcey 2. John Williamson 3. T. J. Harvey

2019 Members Elected
Fredericton – Jenica Atwin
New Brunswick Southwest – John Williamson
Tobique-Mactaquac – Richard Bragdon

THANDEREP
NEW BRUNSWICK WESTERN 1. John Williamson 2. Matt DeCourcey 3. Jenica Atwin

All three of these ridings were held by the Conservatives since 2008, and the historic Liberal sweep of the Maritimes is blunted somewhat with New Brunswick Southwest's Conservative MP no longer suffering a four-year exile from Parliament. Likewise Fredericton's Matt DeCourcey is rewarded for winning more votes than his party-mates, sitting alongside the woman who unseated him (and has now joined his party - alas, we will not see them run against each other this year).

Overall the persistent Liberal and Conservative voting blocs still lock down the top two spots, but the softening Liberal vote allows their second seat to fall to the Greens.
 
NEW BRUNSWICK EASTERN
Fundy Royal
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe
Saint John—Rothesay

2015 Members Elected
Fundy Royal – Alaina Lockhart
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe – Ginette Petitpas Taylor
Saint John—Rothesay – Wayne Long

THANDEREP
NEW BRUNSWICK EASTERN 1. Ginette Petitpas Taylor 2. Rob Moore 3. Wayne Long

2019 Members Elected
Fundy Royal – Rob Moore
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe – Ginette Petitpas Taylor
Saint John—Rothesay – Wayne Long

THANDEREP
NEW BRUNSWICK EASTERN 1. Ginette Petitpas Taylor 2. Rob Moore 3. Wayne Long

Once again we can see how THANDEREP dampens the effects of vote-swings. Again, three Conservative ridings went uniformly Liberal in 2015, yet the Conservatives had over 34% of the vote - plenty to win a seat in many parts of the country, but they were penalized for having their support suboptimally distributed.

In 2019 the FPTP and THANDEREP results were identical! This will continue to happen quite often when multiple parties have won seats - though, as we've seen, it's no guarantee.
 
ACADIE
Acadie—Bathurst
Beauséjour
Madawaska—Restigouche
Miramichi—Grand Lake

2015 Members Elected
Acadie—Bathurst – Serge Cormier
Beauséjour – Dominic LeBlanc
Madawaska—Restigouche – René Arsenault
Miramichi—Grand Lake – Pat Finnigan

THANDEREP:
ACADIE 1. Dominic LeBlanc 2. Serge Cormier 3. Jason Godin 4. René Arsenault

2019 Members Elected
Acadie—Bathurst – Serge Cormier
Beauséjour – Dominic LeBlanc
Madawaska—Restigouche – René Arsenault
Miramichi—Grand Lake – Pat Finnigan

THANDEREP:
ACADIE 1. Serge Cormier 2. Peggy McLean 3. Dominic LeBlanc 4. Laura Reinsborough

New Brunswick's 4 majority-Francophone ridings made sense to combine, and I decided to roll them all together rather than split them 2-and-2 (the only time I didn't do this with adjacent 2-seaters was when those pairs were extremely rural as well).

Another Maritime area, another Liberal sweep. In this case the collapse of Conservative support in 2015 let the Liberals snag both of their seats, but under THANDEREP the New Democrats retained enough support to elect another Godin in Yvon Godin's old seat. Annoyingly, despite the resemblance, none of the news stories I consulted would name their relationship.

In 2019, the NDP vote collapsed even as the Liberal vote softened - in some ridings by as much as a third, though not enough to lose any of their seats. This was enough to return a Conservative - and New Brunswick's second Green, who just nips about 500 votes ahead of the third Liberal.
 
Well, that's one (easy) province done. Though it doesn't produce perfectly proportional results (and isn't intended to do so), my gut feeling is still that THANDEREP produces a "fair" result.

New Brunswick:
2015
Liberals 10/10 - 51.4% popular vote, 100.0% seats
Conservatives 0/10 - 25.3% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 0/10 - 18.3% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/10 = 4.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 7/10 - 51.4% popular vote, 70.0% seats
Conservatives 2/10 - 25.3% popular vote, 20.0% seats
New Democrats 1/10 - 18.3% popular vote, 10.0% seats
Greens 0/10 = 4.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 6/10 - 39.9% popular vote, 60.0% seats
Conservatives 3/10 - 34.1% popular vote, 30.0% seats
New Democrats 0/10 - 9.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 1/10 = 17.2% popular vote, 10.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 5/10 - 39.9% popular vote, 50.0% seats
Conservatives 3/10 - 34.1% popular vote, 30.0% seats
New Democrats 0/10 - 9.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 2/10 = 17.2% popular vote, 20.0% seats

And maps (if anyone knows where I can find basemaps easier to work with than the Elections Canada ones, please let me know):

thanderep new brunswick 2015.pngthanderep new brunswick 2019.png
 
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Glad to see you doing this.

My reasoning for using bloc vote is that this was originally a thought experiment about local councils in England, which mostly do use bloc vote in three-member wards (especially in London), so it was a way of doing a form of PR without actually changing the mechanics of how the voters cast their votes at all - as this becoming more complicated or changing is a common objection to PR.
 
Oooh, I like this system; I think it helps solve the big English election system issue in my TL, where the former setup resulted in some horribly uncompetitive constituencies between the three big factions. Plus, unlike the proportional system where I had to constantly check, "right, does this work the way I expect it to", I can easily calculate a vast majority of seats mentally.
 
CAPE BRETON
Cape Breton—Canso
Sydney—Victoria

2015 Members Elected
Cape Breton—Canso – Roger Cuzner
Sydney—Victoria – Mark Eyking

THANDEREP
CAPE BRETON 1. Roger Cuzner 2. Mark Eyking

2019 Members Elected
Cape Breton—Canso – Mike Kelloway
Sydney—Victoria – Jaime Battiste

THANDEREP
CAPE BRETON 1. Mike Kelloway 2. Alfie MacLeod

Nova Scotia has eleven ridings, so this one comes up a seat short. Fewer seats mean the margin a party needs to sweep the riding is 2-to-1 over the biggest challenger, rather than 3-to-1. The Liberals manage that in 2015, but come up well short in 2019, and the bigger Cape Breton—Canso electorate swamps all the Sydney—Victoria candidates to seat their top two.
 
*CENTRAL NOVA
Central Nova
Cumberland—Colchester
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook

2015 Members Elected
Central Nova – Sean Fraser
Cumberland—Colchester – Bill Casey
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook – Darrell Samson

THANDEREP
*CENTRAL NOVA 1. Bill Casey 2. Sean Fraser 3. Scott Armstrong

2019 Members Elected
Central Nova – Sean Fraser
Cumberland—Colchester – Lenore Zann
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook – Darrell Samson

THANDEREP
*CENTRAL NOVA 1. Sean Fraser 2. Scott Armstrong 3. Darrell Samson

The asterisk is to avoid ambiguity because the combined constituency shares a name with one of its, uh, constituents. The Liberal sweep is fragile enough to allow a Conservative to snag a seat - they have "only" two-and-a-half times the vote-share - but it's not fragile enough to save perennial "Most Fun MP to Work For" Peter Stoffer. The Liberal vote declines in 2019 (about half of which is the retirement of Bill Casey's strong personal vote effect) but despite the Conservatives and Greens each adding about 10000 votes it's not enough to change the distribution of seats.
 
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*HALIFAX
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour
Halifax
Halifax West

2015 Members Elected
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour – Darren Fisher
Halifax – Andy Fillmore
Halifax West – Geoff Regan

THANDEREP
*HALIFAX 1. Geoff Regan 2. Darren Fisher 3. Megan Leslie

2019 Members Elected
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour – Darren Fisher
Halifax – Andy Fillmore
Halifax West – Geoff Regan

THANDEREP
*HALIFAX 1. Geoff Regan 2. Christine Saulnier 3. Darren Fisher

Megan Leslie was one of the toughest casualties of 2015, and she retains her seat under THANDEREP. Her successor brought in fewer individual votes, but still moves up the list thanks to increased support elsewhere in the city. Geoff Regan is even invincibler.
 
SOUTH NOVA
Kings—Hants
South Shore—St. Margarets
West Nova

2015 Members Elected
Kings—Hants – Scott Brison
South Shore—St. Margarets – Bernadette Jordan
West Nova – Colin Fraser

THANDEREP
SOUTH NOVA 1. Scott Brison 2. Bernadette Jordan 3. Arnold LeBlanc

2019 Members Elected
Kings—Hants – Kody Blois
South Shore—St. Margarets – Bernadette Jordan
West Nova – Chris d'Entremont

THANDEREP
SOUTH NOVA 1. Bernadette Jordan 2. Chris d'Entremont 3. Kody Blois

It's a good job the Liberals only stood two cabinet ministers in this part of the country in 2015, because that's all their voteshare was good for. West Nova, as arguably the Toriest riding in the province (Cumberland—Colchester comes close), consistently seats its Conservative candidate.
 
Glad to see you doing this.

My reasoning for using bloc vote is that this was originally a thought experiment about local councils in England, which mostly do use bloc vote in three-member wards (especially in London), so it was a way of doing a form of PR without actually changing the mechanics of how the voters cast their votes at all - as this becoming more complicated or changing is a common objection to PR.

Well, quite - in much the same way, one-vote THANDEREP is mechanically identical to the existing First-Past-The-Post system; the ballot has just tripled in length. I actually don't know how widespread bloc vote is in this country - all BC municipal elections I know of are bloc vote, but without wards. Toronto uses first-past-the-post, with the same ridings as are used in federal and provincial elections (!).

Nova Scotia totals
2015
Liberals 11/11 - 62.4% popular vote, 100.0% seats
Conservatives 0/11 - 18.0% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 0/11 - 16.3% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/11 - 3.4% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 8/11 - 62.4% popular vote, 72.7% seats
Conservatives 2/11 - 18.0% popular vote, 18.1% seats
New Democrats 1/11 - 16.3% popular vote, 9.1% seats
Greens 0/11 - 3.4% popular vote, 0.0% seats
2019
Liberals 10/11 - 42.8% popular vote, 90.9% seats
Conservatives 1/11 - 26.5% popular vote, 9.1% seats
New Democrats 0/11 - 20.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/11 - 11.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 7/11 - 42.8% popular vote, 63.6% seats
Conservatives 3/11 - 26.5% popular vote, 27.3% seats
New Democrats 1/11 - 20.1% popular vote, 9.1% seats
Greens 0/11 - 11.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats

THANDEREP delivers an almost perfectly proportional result for the Conservatives in both years, though otherwise Liberal support is well-spread to maximise their seat count.

Maps:
thanderep nova scotia 2015.pngthanderep nova scotia 2019.png
 
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*AVALON
Avalon
St. John's East
St. John's South—Mount Pearl

2015 Members Elected
Avalon – Ken McDonald
St. John's East – Nick Whalen
St. John's South—Mount Pearl – Seamus O'Regan

THANDEREP
*AVALON 1. Seamus O'Regan 2. Jack Harris 3. Ken McDonald

2019 Members Elected
Avalon – Ken McDonald
St. John's East – Jack Harris
St. John's South—Mount Pearl – Seamus O'Regan

THANDEREP
*AVALON 1. Seamus O'Regan 2. Jack Harris 3. Matthew Chapman

If THANDEREP continues to anticipate first-past-the-post by one election, this is gonna be Matthew Chapman's year! What a nice bit of good news for the Conservatives. Don't count on it, though; in 2015, Ken McDonald's biggest competition was his independent ex-Liberal predecessor.
 
RURAL NEWFOUNDLAND
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame
Long Range Mountains

2015 Members Elected
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity – Judy M. Foote
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame – Scott Sims
Long Range Mountains – Gudie Hutchings

THANDEREP
RURAL NEWFOUNDLAND 1. Gudie Hutchings 2. Judy M. Foote 3. Scott Sims

2019 Members Elected
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity – Churence Rogers
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame – Scott Sims
Long Range Mountains – Gudie Hutchings

THANDEREP
RURAL NEWFOUNDLAND 1. Gudie Hutchings 2. Sharon Vokey 3. Scott Sims

This combined constituency is nearly 100000 square kilometres, and were THANDEREP implemented I think I'd advocate for leaving them as three single-seaters. If you wanted to know how the election would have gone in single-seat ridings, good news! We literally had an election to find out.

On the other hand, it turns out checking a list of MPs returned would tell you the THANDEREP result too, at least in 2015. As ever, the vote for the Liberals once they're in government softens considerably, and so THANDEREP continues to be bad for the party that managed to sweep every seat. Who'd've thunk?
 
LABRADOR
Labrador

2015 Member Elected
Labrador – Yvonne Jones

THANDEREP
LABRADOR 1. Yvonne Jones

2019 Member Elected
Labrador – Yvonne Jones

THANDEREP
LABRADOR 1. Yvonne Jones

No asterisk this time; nothing's changing. Labrador is sparse and low-population and large by the standards of RURAL NEWFOUNDLAND, ferChrissakes. Jones won with less than a third the absolute vote totals of the islander MPs. Still bloody-mindedly publishing the summary.
 
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Newfoundland & Labrador:
2015
Liberals 7/7 - 66.5% popular vote, 100.0% seats
Conservatives 0/7 - 10.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 0/7 - 21.8% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/7 - 1.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 6/7 - 66.5% popular vote, 85.7% seats
Conservatives 0/7 - 10.6% popular vote, 0% seats
New Democrats 1/7 - 21.8% popular vote, 14.3% seats
Greens 0/7 - 1.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
2019
Liberals 6/7 - 44.8% popular vote, 85.7% seats
Conservatives 0/7 - 28.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 1/7 - 23.9% popular vote, 14.3% seats
Greens 0/7 - 3.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 4/7 - 44.8% popular vote, 57.1% seats
Conservatives 2/7 - 28.2% popular vote, 28.6% seats
New Democrats 1/7 - 23.8% popular vote, 14.3% seats
Greens 0/7 - 3.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats

thanderep newf&lab 2015.pngthanderep newf&lab 2019.png
 
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And hell, one more combined constituency today.

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
Cardigan
Charlottetown
Egmont
Malpeque

2015 Members Elected
Cardigan – Lawrence MacAuley
Charlottetown – Sean Casey
Egmont – Bobby Morrissey
Malpeque – Wayne Easter

THANDEREP
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND 1. Lawrence MacAulay 2. Wayne Easter 3. Gail Shea 4. Sean Casey

2019 Members Elected
Cardigan – Lawrence MacAulay
Charlottetown – Sean Casey
Egmont – Bobby Morrissey
Malpeque – Wayne Easter

THANDEREP
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND 1. Lawrence MacAulay 2. Logan McLellan 3. Wayne Easter 4. Anna Keenan

Gail Shea's two terms in Parliament from 2008 made her the only non-Liberal MP returned by Prince Edward Island since 1984. She survives 2015, and her successor in Egmont betters her result. I was surprised that Anna Keenan's entry into Parliament wasn't even close, being over five thousand votes clear of Sean Casey in a province where candidates enter parliament on as few as 8012 votes.
 
Looking forward to more of this.

You're also making me consider posting an alternate electoral project I've had on the back burner since January 2020; I produced all the maps and results already, but I was going to wrap a "Partying" style story around it and I'm not sure if I can pull that off.

I like these projects even without the story, but as I can't quite wrap my mind around what kind of story you indicate, do it. (/Palpatine_voice)


Prince Edward Island:
2015
Liberals 4/4 - 58.3% popular vote, 100.0% seats
Conservatives 0/4 - 19.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 0/4 - 16.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/7 - 6.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 3/4 - 58.3% popular vote, 75.0% seats
Conservatives 1/4 - 19.5% popular vote, 25.0% seats
New Democrats 0/4 - 16.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/4 - 6.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
2019
Liberals 4/4 - 44.0% popular vote, 100.0% seats
Conservatives 0/4 - 27.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 0/4 - 7.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/4 - 21.0% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 2/4 - 44.0% popular vote, 50.0% seats
Conservatives 1/4 - 27.5% popular vote, 25.0% seats
New Democrats 0/4 - 7.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 1/4 - 21.0% popular vote, 25.0% seats

Easiest map adaptation:



thanderep pei 2015.pngthanderep pei 2019.png
 
And lastly, now that the Maritimes are done, a brief table to show how the election results are changed at this point in the night. (Of course, I'm still declaring the nailbiters immediately before any Quebec results are declared, so your mileage may vary on the realism.)

2015First-past-the-postTHANDEREP
Liberal3224
Conservative05
New Democrat03
Bloc00
Green00
Other00


2019First-past-the-postTHANDEREP
Liberal2618
Conservative49
New Democrat12
Bloc00
Green13 (!)
Other00

I was intending to do Quebec next, but I'm having the loveliest of times questioning all my decisions while I read @glhermine's excellent regional profiles. Some map revisions to happen behind the scenes tomorrow, and ideally we will see eastern Quebec then or the following day as I'm sure of most of my decisions there.
 
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