Thandean Representation: The 2015 and 2019 Canadian Federal Elections Under Another Voting System

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER
Cypress Hills—Grasslands
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan

2015 Members Elected
Cypress Hills—Grasslands – David Anderson
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan – Tom Lukiwski

THANDEREP
SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER 1. David Anderson 2. Tom Lukiwski

2019 Members Elected
Cypress Hills—Grasslands – Jeremy Patzer
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan – Tom Lukiwski

THANDEREP
SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER 1. Tom Lukiwski 2. Jeremy Patzer

Another rural Saskatchewan 2-seater, another perennial pair of Conservative seats. More evidence if evidence were wanted that Saskatchewan, birthplace of the New Democratic Party, is further right than Manitoba, not the birthplace of the New Democratic Party.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

SASKATOON
Saskatoon—Grasswood
Saskatoon—University
Saskatoon West

2015 Members Elected
Saskatoon—Grasswood – Kevin Waugh
Saskatoon—University – Brad Trost
Saskatoon West – Sheri Benson

THANDEREP
SASKATOON 1. Kevin Waugh 2. Sheri Benson 3. Tracy Muggli

2019 Members Elected
Saskatoon—Grasswood – Kevin Waugh
Saskatoon—University – Corey Tochor
Saskatoon West – Brad Redekopp

THANDEREP
SASKATOON 1. Kevin Waugh 2. Sheri Benson 3. Corey Tochor

Saskatoon is sensibly lined up with three urban ridings, praise God. While Liberal Tracy Muggli is seated with a comfortable margin of eight thousand votes over the second Conservative in 2015, in 2019 the Conservatives peel off fifteen thousand Liberal votes, a thousand Greens, and pull four thousand more new voters to convincingly shut the door. (The New Democrat turnout is almost unchanged.)

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

NORTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER
Battlefords—Lloydmister
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek
Prince Albert

2015 Members Elected
Battlefords—Lloydmister – Gerry Ritz
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek – Kelly Block
Prince Albert – Randy Hoback

THANDEREP
NORTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER 1. Kelly Block 2. Gerry Ritz 3. Lon Borgerson

2019 Members Elected
Battlefords—Lloydmister – Rosemarie Falk
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek – Kelly Block
Prince Albert – Randy Hoback

THANDEREP
NORTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER 1. Kelly Block 2. Rosemarie Falk 3. Randy Hoback

The northern reach of conventionally rural Saskatchewan (population density about 3 per square kilometre; the upcoming Saskatchewan Northern riding clocks in at 0.21 per square kilometre) is safe Conservative territory; the third THANDEREP seat is a fairly tight Conservative-New Democrat marginal in 2015, whereas in 2019 that contest is moved down to the non-existent sixth seat.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

SASKATCHEWAN NORTHERN
Desthené—Missinippi—Churchill River

2015 Members Elected
Desthené—Missinippi—Churchill River – Georgina Jolibois

THANDEREP
SASKATCHEWAN NORTHERN 1. Georgina Jolibois

2019 Members Elected
Desthené—Missinippi—Churchill River – Gary Vidal

THANDEREP
SASKATCHEWAN NORTHERN 1. Gary Vidal

The third-largest riding in the country (not counting territories), larger than Finland or the smaller Congo, behind only Manitoba Northern and Ungava (I've blocked out their horribly hyphenated current names), yet with fewer residents than Andorra. A fairly tight three-way race in 2015 gives way to a solid Conservative victory in 2019.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

Saskatchewan!

2015
Liberals 1/14 - 24.0% popular vote, 7.1% seats
Conservatives 10/14 - 48.7% popular vote, 71.4% seats
New Democrats 3/14 - 25.2% popular vote, 21.4% seats
Greens 0/14 - 2.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 2/14 - 24.0% popular vote, 14.3% seats
Conservatives 8/14 - 48.7% popular vote, 57.1% seats
New Democrats 4/14 - 25.2% popular vote, 28.6% seats
Greens 0/14 - 2.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 0/14 - 11.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Conservatives 14/14 - 64.2% popular vote, 100.0% seats
New Democrats 0/14 - 19.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/14 - 1.8% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 0/14 - 11.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Conservatives 12/14 - 64.2% popular vote, 85.7% seats
New Democrats 2/14 - 19.7% popular vote, 14.3% seats
Greens 0/14 - 1.8% popular vote, 0.0% seats

The most dominant performance by one party we've seen so far, apart from the 2015 Newfoundland & Labrador Liberals. Holy s$&%.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

We are late in the game, people, and it's too late for me to do Alberta today, but let's at least toss one on as a promise for tomorrow.

LETHBRIDGE & MEDICINE HAT
Bow River
Lethbridge
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner

2015 Members Elected
Bow River – Martin Shields
Lethbridge – Rachael Harder
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner – Jim Hillyer

THANDEREP
LETHBRIDGE & MEDICINE HAT 1. Martin Shields 2. Jim Hillyer 3. Rachael Harder

2019 Members Elected
Bow River – Martin Shields
Lethbridge – Rachael Harder
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner – Glen Motz

THANDEREP
LETHBRIDGE & MEDICINE HAT 1. Martin Shields 2. Glen Motz 3. Rachael Harder

I thought I must be hallucinating, but apparently the New Democrats ran two candidates named Erin Weir in different ridings in 2015. One in Regina, elected (and later ejected from the caucus), and one in Medicine Hat, less so. Different genders, even.

This being rural prairies, the Conservative win the first six seats. Not even the most extreme result we'll see in Alberta. I think I've found Tory electoral reform catnip.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

CALGARY SOUTH
Calgary Heritage
Calgary Midnapore
Calgary Shepard

2015 Members Elected
Calgary Heritage – Stephen Harper
Calgary Midnapore – Jason Kenney
Calgary Shepard – Tom Kmiec

THANDEREP
CALGARY SOUTH 1. Tom Kmiec 2. Jason Kenney 3. Jerome James

2019 Members Elected
Calgary Heritage – Bob Benzen
Calgary Midnapore – Stephanie Kusie
Calgary Shepard – Tom Kmiec

THANDEREP
CALGARY SOUTH 1. Tom Kmiec 2. Stephanie Kusie 3. Bob Benzen

Well, that's awkward.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

*CALGARY CENTRE
Calgary Centre
Calgary Confederation
Calgary Signal Hill

2015 Members Elected
Calgary Centre – Kent Hehr
Calgary Confederation – Len Webber
Calgary Signal Hill – Ron Liepert

THANDEREP
*CALGARY CENTRE 1. Ron Liepert 2. Matt Grant 3. Len Webber

2019 Members Elected
Calgary Centre – Greg McLean
Calgary Confederation – Len Webber
Calgary Signal Hill – Ron Liepert

THANDEREP
*CALGARY CENTRE 1. Ron Liepert 2. Greg McLean 3. Kent Hehr

Both Centre and Confederation were genuinely close races in 2015, with candidates from both major parties hovering around 30k votes. By 2019 only the Liberal incumbent Hehr cracked 15k, while all the Conservatives were rocking 35k or more; Liepert was a hairsbreadth short of 45k. The drama would've been the McLean-Webber race for Conservative 2nd, which Webber narrowly lost.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

CALGARY NORTHEAST
Calgary Forest Lawn
Calgary Nose Hill
Calgary Skyview

2015 Members Elected
Calgary Forest Lawn – Deepak Obhrai
Calgary Nose Hill – Michelle Rempel
Calgary Skyview – Darshan Singh Kang

THANDEREP
CALGARY NORTHEAST 1. Michelle Rempel 2. Darshan Singh Kang 3. Deepak Obhrai

2019 Members Elected
Calgary Forest Lawn – Jasraj Singh Hallan
Calgary Nose Hill – Michelle Rempel
Calgary Skyview – Jag Sahota

THANDEREP
CALGARY NORTHEAST 1. Michelle Rempel 2. Jag Sahota 3. Nirmala Naidoo

One thing I've found challenging is teasing out any regional variations in the Calgary vote - there's a Liberal minority that gradually wears away to a sea of solid blue, everywhere you look. Kang ended the Liberal majority parliament as an independent, but his replacement did well enough to hang onto the THANDEREP seat.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

SOUTHERN ROCKIES
Banff—Airdrie
Calgary Rocky Ridge
Foothills

2015 Members Elected
Banff—Airdrie – Blake Richards
Calgary Rocky Ridge – Pat Kelly
Foothills – John Barlow

THANDEREP
SOUTHERN ROCKIES 1. John Barlow 2. Blake Richards 3. Nirmala Naidoo

2019 Members Elected
Banff—Airdrie – Blake Richards
Calgary Rocky Ridge – Pat Kelly
Foothills – John Barlow

THANDEREP
SOUTHERN ROCKIES 1. Blake Richards 2. John Barlow 3. Pat Kelly

The choice of which riding to split off of urban Calgary felt inevitable if not exactly right. It's the same Nirmala Naidoo who snags the third Southern Rockies seat as gets seated in Calgary Northeast four years later. Once again, the 2019 Conservatives would win the first six seats.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

And, hell, let's toss in a Calgary breakdown while we're in the neighbourhood.

2015
Liberals 2/9 - 33.2% popular vote, 22.2% seats
Conservatives 7/9 - 55.8% popular vote, 77.8% seats
New Democrats 0/9 - 7.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 3/9 - 33.2% popular vote, 33.3% seats
Conservatives 6/9 - 55.8% popular vote, 66.7% seats
New Democrats 0/9 - 7.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 0/9 - 18.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Conservatives 9/9 - 65.0% popular vote, 100.0% seats
New Democrats - 10.0% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 2/9 - 18.7% popular vote, 22.2% seats
Conservatives 7/9 - 65.0% popular vote, 77.8% seats
New Democrats - 10.0% popular vote, 0.0% seats

There are Green voters in Calgary, but there are also People's Party voters and Libertarian voters and even Christian Heritage voters and you don't see me counting them either.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

ALBERTA EASTERN
Battle River—Crowfoot
Lakeland

2015 Members Elected
Battle River—Crowfoot – Kevin Sorenson
Lakeland – Shannon Stubbs

THANDEREP
ALBERTA EASTERN 1. Kevin Sorenson 2. Shannon Stubbs

2019 Members Elected
Battle River—Crowfoot – Damien Kurek
Lakeland – Shannon Stubbs

THANDEREP
ALBERTA EASTERN 1. Damien Kurek 2. Shannon Stubbs

I think this is the most lopsided landslide in the country in 2019. The first non-Conservative candidate to sit would be New Democrat Jeffrey Swanson, who would get the fifteenth seat.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

RED DEER
Edmonton Wetaskiwin
Red Deer—Lacombe
Red Deer—Mountain View

2015 Members Elected
Edmonton Wetaskiwin – Mike Lake
Red Deer—Lacombe – Blaine Calkins
Red Deer—Mountain View – Earl Dreeshen

THANDEREP
RED DEER 1. Earl Dreeshen 2. Mike Lake 3. Blaine Calkins

2019 Members Elected
Edmonton Wetaskiwin – Mike Lake
Red Deer—Lacombe – Blaine Calkins
Red Deer—Mountain View – Earl Dreeshen

THANDEREP
RED DEER 1. Mike Lake 2. Earl Dreeshen 3. Blaine Calkins

This is a moderately less rural corridor between Edmonton and Calgary; the nominally Edmontonian riding is mostly south of the city, including a sizable First Nations reserve. It's also the most populous riding in the nation, more than half-again the national average, which is how Mike Lake amassed over sixty thousand votes in 2019.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

EDMONTON SOUTHWEST
Edmonton Mill Woods
Edmonton Riverbend
Edmonton West

2015 Members Elected
Edmonton Mill Woods – Amarjeet Sohi
Edmonton Riverbend – Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton West – Kelly McCauley

THANDEREP
EDMONTON SOUTHWEST 1. Matt Jeneroux 2. Amarjeet Sohi 3. Kelly McCauley

2019 Members Elected
Edmonton Mill Woods – Tim Uppal
Edmonton Riverbend – Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton West – Kelly McCauley

THANDEREP
EDMONTON SOUTHWEST 1. Kelly McCauley 2. Matt Jeneroux 3. Amarjeet Sohi

Sohi was a blip in real terms; these were all long-held Conservative ridings. He survives under THANDEREP in 2019, despite the otherwise total resurgence of the Conservative vote.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

*EDMONTON CENTRE
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Griesbach
Edmonton Strathcona

2015 Members Elected
Edmonton Centre – Randy Boissoneault
Edmonton Griesbach – Kerry Diotte
Edmonton Strathcona – Linda Duncan

THANDEREP
*EDMONTON CENTRE 1. Kerry Diotte 2. Linda Duncan 3. Randy Boissoneault

2019 Members Elected
Edmonton Centre – James Cumming
Edmonton Griesbach – Kerry Diotte
Edmonton Strathcona – Heather MacPherson

THANDEREP
*EDMONTON CENTRE 1. Kerry Diotte 2. Heather MacPherson 3. James Cumming

Edmonton's urban core lies almost exactly at the confluence of these three ridings, so it made little sense to divide the city into pie-wedges. Strathcona has been held by the New Democrats since 2008, and apart from the 2015 election was the only riding to return any non-Conservatives during that time. THANDEREP certainly makes the seat safer (and one Conservative seat untouchable, not that it wasn't basically already there), preserving the drama for seat three.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

EDMONTON NORTHEAST
Edmonton Manning
Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan
St Albert—Edmonton

2015 Members Elected
Edmonton Manning – Ziad Aboultaif
Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan – Garnett Genuis
St Albert—Edmonton – Michael Cooper

THANDEREP
EDMONTON NORTHEAST 1. Garnett Genuis 2. Michael Cooper 3. Rod Frank

2019 Members Elected
Edmonton Manning – Ziad Aboultaif
Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan – Garnett Genuis
St Albert—Edmonton – Michael Cooper

THANDEREP
EDMONTON NORTHEAST 1. Garnett Genuis 2. Michael Cooper 3. Ziad Aboultaif

Including some peripheral communities, Edmonton Northeast has only the most residual of Liberal minorities. The Liberal tide is enough to sneak one over the line in 2015, but the Conservatives shut the door again in 2019.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

Here's Edmonton, then:

2015
Liberals 2/9 - 28.2% popular vote, 22.2% seats
Conservatives 6/9 - 45.1% popular vote, 66.7% seats
New Democrats 1/9 - 20.6% popular vote, 11.1% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 3/9 - 28.2% popular vote, 33.3% seats
Conservatives 5/9 - 45.1% popular vote, 55.6% seats
New Democrats 1/9 - 20.6% popular vote, 11.1% seats

2019
Liberals 0/9 - 20.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Conservatives 8/9 - 55.2% popular vote, 88.9% seats
New Democrats 1/9 - 19.6% popular vote, 11.1% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 1/9 - 20.6% popular vote, 11.1% seats
Conservatives 7/9 - 55.2% popular vote, 77.8% seats
New Democrats 1/9 - 19.6% popular vote, 11.1% seats


The Liberals pick up an additional seat under THANDEREP each go-round, cutting into the Conservatives' majoritarian bonus, but otherwise the results are as they really were.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

UPPER ATHABASKA
Peace River—Westlock
Sturgeon River—Parkland
Yellowhead

2015 Members Elected
Peace River—Westlock – Arnold Viersen
Sturgeon River—Parkland – Rona Ambrose
Yellowhead – Jim Eglinski

THANDEREP
UPPER ATHABASKA 1. Rona Ambrose 2. Jim Eglinski 3. Arnold Viersen

2019 Members Elected
Peace River—Westlock – Arnold Viersen
Sturgeon River—Parkland – Dane Lloyd
Yellowhead – Gerald Soroka

THANDEREP
UPPER ATHABASKA 1. Dane Lloyd 2. Gerald Soroka 3. Arnold Viersen

Those of you following along on a map are wincing right now; each Northern Alberta riding is about half the area of the singletons I left out east like Labrador and Manicouagan, and there are three of them. By rights Peace River—Westlock oughta be split, with everything south and east of Lesser Slave Lake staying in this group and the rest being welded onto a northern 2-seater (or 2 singles), but the ridings are the ridings. What is to be done?

The first non-Conservatives in this riding would have been a Liberal (fifth) in 2015 and a New Democrat (tenth!) in 2019.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

ALBERTA NORTHERN
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake
Grande Prairie—Mackenzie

2015 Members Elected
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake – David Yurdiga
Grande Prairie—Mackenzie – Chris Warkentin

THANDEREP
ALBERTA NORTHERN 1. Chris Warkentin 2. David Yurdiga

2019 Members Elected
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake – David Yurdiga
Grande Prairie—Mackenzie – Chris Warkentin

THANDEREP
ALBERTA NORTHERN 1. Chris Warkentin 2. David Yurdiga

This is an ugly one, and there's a good argument to be made for leaving them single. But why do that when you could easily lookat a Wikipedia page to find out what would have and did happen?

The first non-Conservatives in this riding would have been Liberals, fourth in 2015 and twelfth in 2019.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

So, the Alberta-wide distribution

2015
Liberals 4/34 - 24.5% popular vote, 11.8% seats
Conservatives 29/34 - 59.6% popular vote, 85.3% seats
New Democrats 1/34 - 11.6% popular vote, 2.9% seats
Greens 0/34 - 2.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 7/34 - 24.5% popular vote, 20.6% seats
Conservatives 26/34 - 59.6% popular vote, 76.5% seats
New Democrats 1/34 - 11.6% popular vote, 2.9% seats
Greens 0/34 - 2.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 0/34 - 14.0% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Conservatives 33/34 - 68.9% popular vote, 97.1% seats
New Democrats 1/34 - 11.6% popular vote, 2.9% seats
Greens 0/34 - 2.8% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 3/34 - 14.0% popular vote, 8.8% seats
Conservatives 30/34 - 68.9% popular vote, 88.2% seats
New Democrats 1/34 - 11.6% popular vote, 2.9% seats
Greens 0/34 - 2.8% popular vote, 0.0% seats


So that's what I would describe as a thoroughly Conservative province. Not as much as THANDEREP's MPs make it out to be (and certainly not to the extent First-Past-the-Post would have you believe) but to go much more proportional would come at a cost of locality.