Opened this thread at the beginning by mistake and could not help thinking that we need more lists with Ed Miliband
Only Chaos
2010-2015:
David Cameron (Conservative) in coalition with Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat)
2015-16:
Ed Miliband (Labour) in supply-and-confidence deal with Alex Salmond (SNP)
Labour reached minority government promising it would not enter a coalition with the SNP - but with the Liberal Democrats near dead, they had no choice but a supply-and-confidence deal
which isn't the same thing honest. Miliband grants Scotland all the extra devolutionary powers that, he notes, the government agreed Scotland should get if it stayed in the union but hasn't got around to, and hopes this keeps the SNP quiet about Trident. If the SNP win the next Scottish election, he promises, there will be a second referendum.
Things turn out difficult as while there's enough votes to get through the reversal of austerity policies, the freezing of energy bills and the like, the SNP
do want to argue about Trident. He also agrees to withdraw British support for Saudi Arabia in Yemen, getting him accused by the Sun and Tory leader Boris Johnson as allowing terror to run rampant, but agrees to a 'free vote' on attacking ISIS in Syria, seeing him attacked by the left. Still, the government's holding together...
...except Salmond and the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon are starting to fall out because both have the ear of the Prime Minister, and Salmond still thinks he runs the whole party. The SNP were already disquiet over how Salmond shoved Angus Robertson out of the way to become the Commons leader, and Sturgeon's wishing she hadn't agreed to it. There's also a problem for the SNP as now it unquestioned dominance in both Scotland and the whole of the UK, people are starting to ask questions about its record. Tempers fray.
Then the allegations about Salmond's sexual misconduct come out. And it includes attempted rape. And now the SNP's in civil war about dumping him or not, and DID STURGEON ARRANGE THIS (no), and Labour's being tarred with it. Miliband can't wait until the next Holyrood election and Johnson is dominating him in the polls. So, in Feb:
2016:
Ed Miliband (Labour) in supply-and-confidence deal with Tim Farron (Liberal Democrat) and Margaret Ritchie (SDLP)
Now Labour's a handful of seats below majority, reliant on rebels from the SNP or Tories to go their way and
utter lockstep in Labour to get anything else done. And anything else has to go through two other parties. Some social liberal reforms can go through, it's assumed, but it turns out trans rights provoke a few hardcore dissidents within Labour and now
that's a big national issue, while Boris Johnson bellows at this silly thing Labour's wasting time on. The other big social issue was forcing same-sex marriage on Northern Ireland, which creates a huge and virulent issue
there but
is popular enough in Westminster and in their parties to mitigate part of the trans rights war.
Then the DUP try to call no confidence in the government. Johnson goes with it - this is his chance. And in the feuding SNP, a number of MPs are angry at being shafted. The pound's value drops as the world expects Miliband to fall.
2016-7:
Ed Miliband (Labour) in supply-and-confidence deal with Tim Farron (Liberal Democrat) and Margaret Ritchie (SDLP)
He
very narrowly wins as the SNP support is smaller than Johnson needed and Plaid Cymru is quietly bought off with promises of greater Welsh devolution. Miliband triumphantly declares: "Crisis, what crisis?"
Now there's 5th of May and all its many elections to go...
A Lab-Lib coalition has majority in Wales; the SDLP has increased its seats in Stormont and the DUP lost seats to the UUP for failing in Westminster; Labour wins various Mayoral elections... but Labour's council seats are down while the Lib Dems are up...
...and Labour very narrowly lost the Ogmore by-election to UKIP's candidate. So now they're down a seat while UKIP has doubled theirs
and boosted their AM seats. Now both Farage and Johnson are riding high.
And in Holyrood, the SNP have lost their majority while Ruth Davidson's Tories have surged to 23. A Lab-Lib-Green coalition of pure chaos is narrowly in charge.
Miliband faces a leadership challenge from Caroline Flint and beats her, but only at 57% majority. Johnson and Farage are discussing a teamup as long as Johnson agrees to an EU membership referendum, which means Tory-UKIP alliances that put the Welsh Assembly under strain and flip several councils. The DUP comes in as well, determined to show it's still the big boy in loyalist politics. Miliband's shaky government looks even shakier now and could fall at any moment, the world thinks, and the economy starts to contract. (Correct) rumours spread that Farron is thinking of yanking support.
Miliband feels there's only one option: he's going to have to call an election. The government will not stand and at least
this way, Labour sets the terms. An election is called for early January 2017 (everyone in press and party PR thinks hard about "NEW YEAR" puns and slogans). Miliband shows a hitherto unsuspected strain of irreverant humour and bolshiness because
what the hell, he's already the underdog and trying to stay serious hasn't worked. Being silly works for Boris, right?
The right wing, of course, will clearly win a small majority.
2017-18:
Ed Miliband (Labour)
Two things help Miliband win: the cash-for-ash scandal growing in Northern Ireland and Donald Trump's victory in America. Both things make a lot of voters wonder about the people Johnson's connecting himself with and worry he might be like the
other blond funny-on-TV guy. Certainly, with chaos in America, do people want yet
another coalition government but one not yet tested? And the europhile Tory voters don't like the sound of this referendum and a number switch to the Liberal Democrats.
Meanwhile, Labour can reclaim many lost Scottish seats and sees a brief "youthquake" bump due to the 'new Ed'. Add in Ogmore falling back to Labour, and it's a two-seat majority!
Now with a majority, and with more 'Milibandite' MPs on his side with the new lot, Ed Miliband can get more left-wing policies through. The trans rights fight is had again because now, he feels, he can win the damn thing and narrowly does. What can go wrong?
Many of the new 'metro mayors' in 2017 go Tory or Lib Dem, is one thing. People are making note of the rising crime rates and are blaming Labour for it, is another - most of this is inherited issues and Labour is working to fix it, but all people see is stabbed kids. The collapse of the Stormont government as the DUP has their final tantrum is another, now Westminster has to take over many functions but can never take too many for fear of 'direct rule'. Trump's mess across the world forces Britain to make difficult choices and Miliband, both due to politics and personality, is unable to keep Trump on side (and doesn't want to if he's honest). With America cooling on the special relationship, Britain has to look to the EU and now the eurosceptics are unhappy & surging again.
Then Grenfell Tower catches fire. The death toll is obscene - there's flammable cladding all over Britain. The government commits to removing it, which is a huge cost and means when the NHS inevitably has a bad winter, there's no spare money to bung at it. A small tax rise is necessary. That goes down like cold sick.
When a former Russian spy and his daughter are poisoned in a chemical weapon attack in spring of 2018, the blame goes to... Miliband, for look how weak he's left us, eh? Eh?? The government eventually identifies the Russian agents who did it and has friendly nations across Europe kick spies out, but America is "not convinced" by the evidence. Britain takes a harder line now on Russia (they've been suspecting Putin's hand behind the surge of pro-UKIP, anti-Europe internet propaganda for a while) and that's a whole extra thing to juggle.
By autumn of 2018, deaths and resignations have cost Miliband his majority. And with Britain committed to opposing Russia, to fixing the NHS, to climate change action, well, he can't handle this as a minority or in supply-and-confidence:
2018-2019:
Ed Miliband (Labour) in coalition with Tim Farron (Liberal Democrat)
The lure of power wins Farron over, believing he can avoid Clegg's mistakes. Labour has to agree to some harder fiscal rules, restraining what it can do, and some business-friendly rules, and generally is shifting back towards Blair's way; they also agree to a referendum on proportional representation. To get twenty-one MPs, Miliband has to go with it. The left matters about betrayal (so, in fact, do some of the centre-right who shifted to Farron...).
In exchange, Miliband gets the Fixed Term Parliament Act removed. He's going to make use of that, if he can.
A huge crisis hits in December 2018, one Miliband hoped never to have to deal with: Trump withdraws uniliaterally from Syria when ISIS is still a threat, and Miliband has to send soldiers in with Macron to replace them. The public mood is mixed, as ISIS need to be stopped but how long will British soldiers be Over There, being shot at? A large swathe of Syria is now Anglo-French responsibility and that means more conflict with Russia & damaged relations with Turkey, who don't like Britain and France keeping the Kurds propped up.
In 2019, Turkey threatens that it will just go in to Kurd-held Syria whether there's European soldiers there or not. A four-day crisis takes place.
The end of December sees both a great success and a great failure for Miliband. The success is when he and other European powers helps Brazilian President Haddad and other Latin American nations put down the various fires across the Amazon, and commit to a multinational agreement to protect and replant the rainforest. Everyone goes into the COP25 meeting optimistic (until Australia catches fire), with big proposals of what to do and new change.
The failure is the NATO summit, where Trump and Erdogan both are Very Unhappy and are making demands for change the other members won't wear. Things deteriorate and Turkey announces if things don't change, it's leaving NATO. Trump starts making threatening noises of his own. Macron has plans for this, and Miliband's dragged along - Christmas dawns with Britain hearing our entire security and defence set-up might be getting changed.
Farron's getting cold feet. He knows - he's too involved - this isn't Eddie's fault, he knows something had to be done, he knows all that
but support's starting to go back to the Tories. He can't afford being stuck with this government.
The problem is, not all of his party want to go - certainly not Business Minister Jo Swinson. So 2019 ends with a Liberal Democrat internal conflict and leadership struggle, which means...
2020-20xx:
Ed Miliband (Labour) in coalition with Jo Swinson (Liberal Democrat)
His majority has shrunk by two seats as two of the more right-wing Lib Dems defect to the Tories. This is not what he needs as NATO reforms to make up for the loss of Turkey - and, as they expected, for America to start withdrawing. A huge British deployment is made in the Baltics and Syria both, as a "don't you dare" gesture at Russia. How long will they be there? Miliband doesn't know.
Now he just hopes he can make it to COP26 in London.