Breaking the Mould Redux: A Wikibox Timeline

[Lucon50]

Before dawn, 2nd April 1982. Argentina launched an invasion of the British-held Falkland Islands, known in Spanish as Las Malvinas. Frogmen landed first from a submarine, followed later by the main assault force. It was an historic day. One group attacked the capital from the landward side, another from sea. Soldiers occupied the radio stations and captured people inside. By 7 AM, after fierce fighting, Government House was completely surrounded; British marines ultimately gave up their arms. The islands were a national cause in Argentina. Pupils in primary schools learned about their lost heritage and how the British stole the islands from them in 1833. Even an unpopular dictatorship would be acclaimed if it could realise the dream of recovering Las Malvinas. When news of the invasion reached Buenos Aires, the crowds went wild. The military regime's record of violent repression, economic decline: all had been forgotten overnight.



In London, there was outrage that the Government could allow British sovereign territory to be invaded. Rowdy scenes erupted in Parliament, swiftly followed by resignations. "It is a national humiliation," admitted Foreign Secretary Lord Carrington, who dismissed the notion that a "minister responsible should just go on as if nothing had happened." Margaret Thatcher gave an urgent statement to the Commons. "Mr Speaker, I'm sure that the whole House will join me in condemning totally, this unprovoked aggression by the Government of Argentina." MPs cheered. "It has not a shred of justification and not a scrap of legality." The Prime Minister sounded resolute, with indications of support from her backbenches. "When [the Governor] left the Falklands, he said the people were in tears. They do not want to be Argentine. He said the islanders are still tremendously loyal." As she praised the man's conduct, Mrs Thatcher could not help but notice heckles against her own policy of defence cuts from members of Labour, the SDP and Liberals. "It is the Government's objective to see that the islands are freed from occupation and are returned to British administration at the earliest possible moment." The United Kingdom's prestige was severely damaged. Its leadership now turned to the Armed Forces.



Lining jetties and walls, thousands of people waved farewell to the British Task Force at the start of its 8,000-mile journey to the South Atlantic. By the end of the week, half of the Royal Navy were mobilised and pushing south. 26,000 service people boarded the ships. Privately, Thatcher had many doubts, worries and fears about the mission. US Secretary of State Alexander Haig flew to London with the aim of brokering peace discussions, then to Buenos Aires. The Reagan Administration were keen not to fall out with either party in the conflict. Negotiations collapsed, with Haig returning empty-handed to Washington on 19th April. After three weeks at sea, the Task Force approached the Falklands. The Argentine navy closed in. UK officials intercepted a signal that The General Belgrano and aircraft carrier were part of an encirclement force on the attack. Thatcher held a war cabinet meeting at Chequers, where the developing situation became known to her. A submarine was ordered to torpedo The Belgrano, Argentina's only cruiser. It was attacked just outside the 200-mile exclusion zone around the Falklands, on the controversial basis that it posed a threat to the Task Force. Approximately 700 people on the warship sank.



Meanwhile, the frigates Brilliant and Yarmouth were sent to hunt the San Luis, an Argentine submarine. The German-built vessel escaped again and again, proving a distraction to Royal Navy operations. On 4th May, an Exocet missile hit the destroyer HMS Sheffield, causing it to sink days later. 20 people died and many more were injured. The UN Secretary General reported that his attempt to mediate in the Falklands crisis had failed. Mrs Thatcher, watching these events unfold, believed that were a military response to the Argentine invasion unsuccessful, the sense of humiliation in Britain would probably grow out of control. In unpredictable Atlantic weather, her Task Force undertook an amphibious landing on hostile territory without air superiority. British troops went ashore in a number of raiding parties. 5,000 were landed after midnight in San Carlos, a port settlement in northwestern East Falkland - it was an astonishing feat. That is when the Argentine air attacks started.

 

[Lucon50]

With the bay of San Carlos Water in their sights, nearly 100 jet planes came flying in low through a wall of AA guns and rockets on 21st May. The ships of the British Task Force were stationed there - landing troops had reached the surrounding zone for an invasion of the Argentine outpost. This surprised the Junta, who were put into a defensive position for the first time. Aircraft rained incendiary bombs down on the Royal Navy ships. Some of these weapons failed to have much impact; others proved essential to the conflict. Two British destroyers, seven frigates and ten landing vessels were sunk during the four days-long Battle of San Carlos. Dozens upon dozens of servicemen were killed during the operation. Margaret Thatcher, refusing to go to bed that night, heard of the disaster and is said to have wept for "our boys". UK troops, isolated on East Falkland, retreated a week later to a depleted Task Force. The Prime Minister, with much subsequent derision in Parliament, had little choice but to recall the Navy from the islands before any additional losses. They were repulsed en route with heavy casualties from Argentine Exocet missiles and bombers. It has been considered a tragic moment for British global standing and, by some historians, as the week the Empire died.



The moods in London and Buenos Aires could not have been more different in the wake of San Carlos. Defeat sent UK institutions reeling, with a mixture of hurt, jingoism and relief at the survivors coming home among the public. Demonstrations were held over the land, as Tony Benn demanded peace and Enoch Powell railed against betrayal by "our terrible enemy, America". In reality, the Reagan Administration soon announced that it would lease several warships to Britain once events clarified. Newspapers spoke darkly of a "second Suez" that would transform national identity and relationships. A wave of jubilation hit Argentina, with street celebrations everywhere. Junta leader and President Leopoldo Galtieri suddenly became very popular. His military dictatorship would ultimately go on for another six years until embarrassment at the hands of Chile in the Patagonian War. Back in London, a visibly distressed Margaret Thatcher commended the "marvellous forces" who were returning home and expressed her sympathy for the families of people they had lost. SDP foreign affairs spokesman David Owen bemoaned that, due to military losses, Britain "no longer rules the waves". Labour leader Michael Foot, having backed the Task Force, united the left in opposition to the Government's reckless spending cuts and naivety.



The Prime Minister holed herself in at Downing Street, surrounded by loyal advisors and colleagues. On 3rd June, the SDP candidate narrowly won the Mitcham and Morden by-election, sending the Conservatives and Labour into chaos. Mr Foot, damaged by his support for a war that Britain was now losing and outshone by Mr Benn, faced calls to resign. He did not - when Denis Healey, Peter Shore and others from the loyalist right wing got behind Foot, a man of the Tribune left, some however made the jump. MPs Phillip Whitehead, Shirley Summerskill, Ben Ford and a few others were eagerly welcomed into SDP ranks. By now, the nascent party enjoyed a twenty-point lead over her rivals in the polls. With Foot diminished but secure in his position, media attention relentlessly pursued the lady in Number Ten. "After a great election victory," she told Parliament, "leading the only party with clear policies, resolutely carried out, I intend to continue." Behind closed doors, Mrs Thatcher felt enormous pressure. Five Tory MPs (Jim Lester, Anthony Meyer, Richard Needham, Keith Speed and John Wheeler) crossed from the Government benches to sit as Independent Conservatives on 7th June. Her majority down to 11, Thatcher turned to Cabinet ministers for help.



"I think I still have a job to do. Goodness me, my work isn't yet finished." Allies from Keith Joseph to Norman Tebbit reassured the Prime Minister that, in any case, the project to build a new political consensus and unshackle British enterprise would keep their loyalty. "That's why I think I need to go on." Questions from the media were brutal. She invited colleagues to have private conversations, one by one. Home Secretary William Whitelaw voiced his support and categorically denied rumours that he'd mount a leadership challenge. Others noted the grave unpopularity incurred by the Government over social disharmony, economic woes and military defeat up to that point. She felt hurt and shocked by the recurrence of parliamentary defections, calling it an act of treachery. Facing down her enemies, Thatcher fought to stay on. A second Task Force comprised of existing ships, those due to set sail and vessels lent by Reagan, including a carrier, was designed for operation. Submarines would form an ongoing blockade of the Falklands, with long-range air strikes by the RAF on the Junta's defences. The war was not over; Argentine settlers could not reach the islands, nor would the spiralling drama in Britain be allowed to escalate further.

 

[Lucon50]

When Task Force personnel departed for the Falkland Islands in April 1982, they left behind a country animated with imperialistic bravado. On home soil after the attempted invasion, what greeted them was relief and welcome, but not from the same nation. People here appeared to be losing their minds, either with xenophobic zeal or abandonment. Only dovish minority groups could say honestly that the whole ordeal had confirmed expectations. Britain was an empire no more, her delusions routed but many of her subjects furious. The shock to national pride triggered unrest in Birmingham, Leeds and London. Unemployment reached 14%, destroying lives with a hit to workers' self-respect, family budgets and economic activity. Riots, sparking bursts of crime based on racial prejudice, tore through cities. Enoch Powell again used his presence to blame social breakdown on immigration, echoing his divisive 1968 'Rivers of Blood' speech. Even inflation, the Government's monetarist focus, stood at roughly 10% - hammering incomes.



A return to the previous year's habit of rioting proved too much for the 'wets' still in the Conservative Party. But these members would not cross the floor; the Prime Minister's authority was so weak in 1982 that several junior ministers ignored her diktats. Thatcher tried another re-shuffle, promoting capable dissenters alongside 'dry' fellow travellers. Home Secretary William Whitelaw, Foreign Secretary Francis Pym, Defence Secretary Michael Heseltine, Health Secretary Norman Fowler and Agriculture Minister Peter Walker decided to visit Number 10. Inside, the group lobbied Mrs Thatcher to change her "radical right" policies "wrecking" the economy. Market deregulation, letting industries die and cutting expenditure during a recession were the bedrock of Chancellor Geoffrey Howe's budgets since 1979. Privately offended by this request, Thatcher repeated her determination to get inflation falling and untether business. "Disloyalty will not be rewarded," she told Heseltine. Nevertheless, the Prime Minister agreed to consult them on future policy, moderate antagonistic language in the press and review the budget. Ministers left wondering if anything might force the Government to change course before it was too late.



Building the second Task Force required months; Thatcher's first priority was to seize control of the agenda. Formerly supportive newspapers now regularly printed articles critical of the Government. Initially concerned with only the defeat in East Falkland, the scathing disapproval spread to encompass defence spending cuts under the Tories (used as a stick to beat with by political opponents), economic malaise and violence on the streets. "SURRENDER!" and "KILL ALL ARGIES!" cried The Sun, while broadsheet outlets were equally unforgiving of the situation, deconstructing the Government's record policy by policy. Weeks and weeks of inertia rolled by and the Conservatives slid down the opinion ratings. Ships leased from Thatcher's ideological soul mate, US President Ronald Reagan, arrived relatively quickly. BBC features laid out the casualties from invasion, gripping British families and causing alarm at potentially repeating the disaster.



In September, as Parliament came back from recess, the corridors of power were thick with plotting, rumour and speculation. Heseltine was known to be organising a leadership bid against Mrs Thatcher. Conservative chaos brought a screen of unity to Labour under its talented but unhappy figurehead Michael Foot. Internal democratic reforms such as mandatory re-selection of MPs had been passed at conference. Viewing the rise of Tony Benn with fear, Denis Healey issued a plea for solidarity among MPs from the right and centre. Factional bodies were updated to include Peter Shore, Gerald Kaufman and assorted Tribunites, combatting Militant and the Bennites across party and trade union branches. Since his election to the deputy leadership, Mr Benn was in the ascendant - pitting him in a rivalry with Mr Foot. Within the SDP-Liberal Alliance, a real hope of victory sharpened minds. Lambeth councillor Peter Mandelson became Director of Communications bringing modern ideas and professionalism. SDP members' groups flourished, the Tawney Society and Young Democrats blossoming with recruits. Shirley Williams' project could point to some key ideals: social democracy, pro-Europeanism, proportional representation, control of the unions and dynamic state and private sectors governed by fixed frontiers.



Seeking to claw back the advantage and rescue her premiership, Margaret Thatcher held a vote of confidence. MPs would decide the Government's future by a plurality. Healey noted similarity with the Callaghan ministry's dying days, when Conservatives had enjoyed Labour's troubles very openly. How the tables had turned: a small majority reduced by countless defections left Downing Street extremely worried. The Prime Minister, stubborn in her beliefs, resolved to test her colleagues against the looming reality of a Foot or Williams administration. Their options were confidence in the Government or electoral ruin. A tight result brought survival to Mrs Thatcher, aided by Irish unionists and abstentions. Her gamble had paid off for the time being. It did not, however, lessen whispers of resignation and turmoil in the papers. Tory ministers were hanging on by a thread. Only poll after poll showing catastrophic defeat at the ballot box kept their backbench parliamentarians from pulling the plug.

 

[Lucon50]

SDP and Liberal policy-makers spent the weekend following the confidence vote coming up with a response to the deteriorating situation in Britain. Whilst police made arrests on hundreds of protesters and fires were being put out, the Alliance leaders prepared a televised speech. Outside the local headquarters in Crosby, Shirley Williams and David Steel faced the crowds. "Look at the fabric of the nation," began Mrs Williams. "The inner cities, riots - these are all symptoms of 3 million unemployed. People are fed up with the other two main parties, their wranglings and their broken promises." Fired up, she reiterated: "High unemployment and inflation - these are the Conservative policies of despair." They offered a "great alliance of progressives, radicals and social democrats" aiming to form a "joint government" with a "period of stability". Mr Steel pledged "home rule all round", getting Northern Irish talks going. They blasted defence cuts, showed empathy for those grieving and proposed a UN-led negotiation on the Falklands.

Without delay, joblessness would be cut by "investing in our future... the public sector of industry, railway modernisation, telephones, energy conservation through loft insulation, the building of the Severn Barrage etc". Long-term, the Alliance would "create a harmonious industrial partnership by legislation, taxation incentives and profit-sharing" among other measures. Williams suggested "more productive and competitive" business alongside "conditions in which people at work have a greater say in their companies" (public and private). Much of this was lifted from the Liberal manifestos, a win for Steel's party. Employees would participate in "how [firms] are run" and enjoy "greater personal contentment" with "greater efficiency". He vowed to "legislate against the closed shop", arguing this trade union practice was "a denial of individual freedom". Mrs Williams played to Labour supporters by committing herself to social reform, particularly in education and welfare so as to "provide opportunity for every family, mother and child". The SDP leader was especially popular among women. Men would be harder to convert, as in communities up and down the land Tony Benn's socialist gospel had mass appeal.

 

[Lucon50]

By 1982, British Shipbuilders had closed nearly half of its yards. Margaret Thatcher eyed a privatisation of this industry, at least until the gargantuan effort of repairing a hollowed-out Royal Navy became inescapable. Described by Michael Foot as "the height of folly", Task Force 2 represented something of a fantasy to his opponent, victory snatched from the jaws of defeat in the South Atlantic. Both figures still attracted blame over their unquestioning support for the first military exercise. The Prime Minister's most vocal enemies clobbered her, branding any new operation utterly delusional. President Reagan was even coming under pressure, from sympathisers with Argentina including diplomat Jeane Kirkpatrick, to let the United Kingdom's imperial prestige sink by forcing negotiations. Every passing day gave further credence to the Junta's claim on Las Malvinas. The status quo did not favour Mrs Thatcher, who ducked and dived from the British press while rushing to change events.



In London, more Conservatives began to accept that a left-wing party would replace them in government. For some, only centrism stood in the way of Tony Benn and Militant. The socially liberal and fiscally dry John Biffen, Leader of the House of Commons, made public calls for moderation in policy. Having warned the nation in 1980 to prepare for "three years of unparalleled austerity" and argued the Tories' electoral fortunes were "within touching distance of... 1906 and 1945", Biffen recognised Labour and SDP gains in shifting the narrative. "We are all social democrats now", he argued. Ministers were part of a consensus in favour of the welfare state and public spending - undermining Thatcher's mission to break from it. Dramatic statements of fact like these grew increasingly routine among canny observers of the British political direction. Still, true believers in the Thatcherite project (for example Keith Joseph and Norman Tebbit) held firm as reverse images of Foot and Benn's socialism. Intra-party divisions boiled over in the weeks of mid-1982, as by-elections poisoned the Labour family and Falklands-mania turned Conservatives in on themselves.



Shirley Williams received a progress report on the Alliance's undertakings from Bill Rodgers, who announced that Roy Hattersley, Giles Radice and John Smith had been granted a clear run in winnable constituencies neighbouring their present ones. On 16th September, her party's candidate took the Welsh seat of Gower from Labour, in a huge swing against both main rivals. Almost a fortnight later, the Liberals came close to repeating the trick in Peckham. Eager to avoid a furious Conservative grassroots revolt in his own patch, defector Nicholas Scott was selected for the Birmingham Northfield by-election. His victory was hailed as an "earthquake" by many pundits. It shook British politics into a complete meltdown. Labour descended into acrimony, with fist fights in local party meetings. The Government barely passed its legislative agenda, known as the Queen's Speech. Downing Street became paralysed by fear after the successful confidence motion; upheaval was commonplace by November. Aggressive disputes in Cabinet spilled out into the open, between the likes of Tebbit and remaining wets. A sense of hatred was palpable. Keith Stainton switched loyalties from Tory to SDP, as old friends heckled him in Parliament with cries of "shame". Independent Conservatives attacked the Prime Minister in frequent editorials. She now refused to answer broadcast media. Everything had truly broken down.

 

[Lucon50]

Geoffrey Howe delayed his Autumn update on the Government's tax and spending plans as soon as Tory civil war reached its nadir. Factions battled for the torch of Conservatism, seemingly indifferent to the damage being wreaked on their popularity in the country. Any victor would probably, as a despondent William Whitelaw observed, "inherit merely an empty shell". Despite party splits, the Home Secretary remained at Mrs Thatcher's side, her faithful deputy. Members of the Old Guard looked on with disbelief; younger careerists and zealots jostled for position in the ideological games being played. Most had done away with collective responsibility or forgotten what it meant. Thatcher managed to postpone the Autumn Statement until 22nd November, a day of reckoning. MPs hurried into Parliament to hear the Chancellor's remarks. Britain's economic background was dire. The Speaker interrupted Howe countless times, in order to silence jeers from across both aisles. Put to a vote, nine Conservatives broke the whip to reject the Government's fiscal measures. Rebels included Norman St John-Stevas, who proclaimed the end of "Tina" - a nickname for the Prime Minister, based on her assertion that "there is no alternative". Michael Heseltine admitted that colleagues were behaving "suicidally", while he added to the pressure. As vultures circled, Mrs Thatcher sat stony-faced on the front bench.



Labour leader Michael Foot tabled a fresh confidence motion that night, seconded by Shirley Williams and David Steel. The atmosphere was electric. Conservative MPs got hauled in at short notice to provide lobby fodder. Unionists resented Anglo-Irish efforts and the British identity crisis since 1979, particularly distressed after the Falklands invasion. Many others who previously abstained turned on the Prime Minister. So just like that, Thatcher's house of cards fell. Her majority shot to pieces, news correspondents immediately phoned Fleet Street, reporting a frenzy. Convention stated that the Government either resign or ask for a dissolution of Parliament. Following talks at Buckingham Palace, Queen Elizabeth II acceded to the latter request. Mrs Thatcher called a general election, flanked at the gates of 10 Downing Street by husband Denis, close staff and loyal ministers Whitelaw and Howe. Although unemployment placed a bitter human cost on the financial outlook, inflation had declined from 12% to 6% since January. Thatcher's speech to the nation echoed this achievement, a boast ridiculed as "out of touch" by Mr Benn - price rises at half the rate only meant a slower downturn in people's incomes. The PM described an "extraordinary" record: Right to Buy, weaker trade unions, business freedom and strong relations with America to destroy communism. "I fight on. I fight to win." She appealed to the voters: rally around the flag in "Britain's hour of need" and let the Government continue its job. To millions without one, would the Iron Lady deserve that luxury?

 

[marktaha]

Surely the RAF had planes to beat the Argentine air force? Prince Andrew comes to mind!

 

[Lucon50]

Prince Andrew comes to mind!

Oh dear

Yes, that's correct although historically the British Task Force invaded without air superiority. It was only thanks to faulty bombs and a lack of Argentine preparation that most Royal Navy ships survived. Here, the bombs detonated with massive consequences.

RAF planes have been attacking Junta forces ever since, with submarines circling the islands.

 

[Bolt451]

Geoffrey Howe delayed his Autumn update on the Government's tax and spending plans as soon as Tory civil war reached its nadir. Factions battled for the torch of Conservatism, seemingly indifferent to the damage being wreaked on their popularity in the country. Any victor would probably, as a despondent William Whitelaw observed, "inherit merely an empty shell". Despite party splits, the Home Secretary remained at Mrs Thatcher's side, her faithful deputy. Members of the Old Guard looked on with disbelief; younger careerists and zealots jostled for position in the ideological games being played. Most had done away with collective responsibility or forgotten what it meant. Thatcher managed to postpone the Autumn Statement until 22nd November, a day of reckoning. MPs hurried into Parliament to hear the Chancellor's remarks. Britain's economic background was dire. The Speaker interrupted Howe countless times, in order to silence jeers from across both aisles. Put to a vote, nine Conservatives broke the whip to reject the Government's fiscal measures. Rebels included Norman St John-Stevas, who proclaimed the end of "Tina" - a nickname for the Prime Minister, based on her assertion that "there is no alternative". Michael Heseltine admitted that colleagues were behaving "suicidally", while he added to the pressure. As vultures circled, Mrs Thatcher sat stony-faced on the front bench.

View attachment 75234

Labour leader Michael Foot tabled a fresh confidence motion that night, seconded by Shirley Williams and David Steel. The atmosphere was electric. Conservative MPs got hauled in at short notice to provide lobby fodder. Unionists resented Anglo-Irish efforts and the British identity crisis since 1979, particularly distressed after the Falklands invasion. Many others who previously abstained turned on the Prime Minister. So just like that, Thatcher's house of cards fell. Her majority shot to pieces, news correspondents immediately phoned Fleet Street, reporting a frenzy. Convention stated that the Government either resign or ask for a dissolution of Parliament. Following talks at Buckingham Palace, Queen Elizabeth II acceded to the latter request. Mrs Thatcher called a general election, flanked at the gates of 10 Downing Street by husband Denis, close staff and loyal ministers Whitelaw and Howe. Although unemployment placed a bitter human cost on the financial outlook, inflation had declined from 12% to 6% since January. Thatcher's speech to the nation echoed this achievement, a boast ridiculed as "out of touch" by Mr Benn - price rises at half the rate only meant a slower downturn in people's incomes. The PM described an "extraordinary" record: Right to Buy, weaker trade unions, business freedom and strong relations with America to destroy communism. "I fight on. I fight to win." She appealed to the voters: rally around the flag in "Britain's hour of need" and let the Government continue its job. To millions without one, would the Iron Lady deserve that luxury?

Great update! This continues to be a fantastic TL

 

[AH Layard]

I like how you’ve touched on the economic situation, the recovery OTL reshaped the dynamics of the 1983 election to Labour and the Alliance’s disadvantage and made any major breakthrough near impossible. This does involve the Alliance rolling a lot of 6s but they needed a lot of luck and it’s an entertaining read. Look forward to seeing how the election goes.

 

[Lucon50]

Great update! This continues to be a fantastic TL

Aww thank you!

 

[Lucon50]

I like how you’ve touched on the economic situation, the recovery OTL reshaped the dynamics of the 1983 election to Labour and the Alliance’s disadvantage and made any major breakthrough near impossible. This does involve the Alliance rolling a lot of 6s but they needed a lot of luck and it’s an entertaining read. Look forward to seeing how the election goes.

Cheers! Indeed without the Falklands factor (and throwing in a shocking military loss), Thatcher is in trouble. The economic picture is mixed but falling inflation and GDP growth are really her only aces now. We'll find out how she plays them...

 

[Bolt451]

Aww thank you!

No problem. One of the first TLs I read back on AH.com was successful Alliance TL. This is a different take and better explained so as to make it more plausible. Looking forward to the next election

 

[Lucon50]

Reading the morning papers after Thatcher had called a general election, the broad collective opinion would seem to be that she was finished. Successive crises in the economy - families jobless, spiralling prices, conflict in declining industries - and Britain's humiliation on the world stage left its people riotous, eager to find blame. As the personification of a disgraced regime, the ever-bullish Mrs Thatcher was certainly brave to face her electorate. With Conservatives in freefall, their leader aimed to underscore notable victories, for fear of defeat. True, some existed: growth was back at 2% after recession; a key target of bringing down inflation was heading in the right direction; unemployment figures appeared to have peaked; the state finances, more balanced. An irony though, of monetarists in Downing Street viewing the UK's economy like a household budget, was that real working-class incomes continued to shrink on their watch - plunging countless into hardship. In terms of political optics, attention was squared (largely thanks to media) on the negatives as they racked up. The Falklands disaster, representing a blow to national status and image, hit many on an individual level. For anyone clinging to empire, what the Tory Government allowed to unfold bordered on high treason.

A long campaign began in late November, for just over six weeks in order to avoid voting during the pre-Christmas season. Election day would be 6th January 1983. Much as this ill-suited Thatcher, who might benefit from a hurried contest light on scrutiny, the timing of a Winter election gave little option. Besides, decisions were no longer fully in her hands; the Prime Minister's authority extended to an inner circle of dependable ministers (not all sharing the Thatcherite religion) and scarcely beyond. 2,500 candidates entered and filed their nomination papers in the ensuing period. Under a majoritarian system, predicting the outcome with several big rivals - Conservative, Labour and SDP/Liberal - defied norms. Every result in Britain's post-war era showed a duel between two parties; all polling indicated a new set of rules. The Daily Telegraph's Gallup survey had the Alliance with 36%, Conservatives 33% and Labour 29%. In such a dragged out campaign, events could intervene to tip any contender into first place, with unorthodox seat tallies. Wary of losing out, a significant number of MPs from all tribes eyed new constituencies, particularly in light of reorganised boundaries. The 635-strong House of Commons was due to be enlarged with 650 seats. David Steel and Shirley Williams made certain that defectors such as Edward Heath and Ian Gilmour could find safe or winnable areas to fight once election day arrived.

 

[marktaha]

Reading the morning papers after Thatcher had called a general election, the broad collective opinion would seem to be that she was finished. Successive crises in the economy - families jobless, spiralling prices, conflict in declining industries - and Britain's humiliation on the world stage left its people riotous, eager to find blame. As the personification of a disgraced regime, the ever-bullish Mrs Thatcher was certainly brave to face her electorate. With Conservatives in freefall, their leader aimed to underscore notable victories, for fear of defeat. True, some existed: growth was back at 2% after recession; a key target of bringing down inflation was heading in the right direction; unemployment figures appeared to have peaked; the state finances, more balanced. An irony though, of monetarists in Downing Street viewing the UK's economy like a household budget, was that real working-class incomes continued to shrink on their watch - plunging countless families into hardship. In terms of political optics, attention was squared (largely thanks to media) on the negatives as they racked up. The Falklands disaster, representing a blow to national status and image, hit many on an individual level. For anyone clinging to empire, what the Tory Government allowed to unfold bordered on high treason.

A long campaign began in late November, for just over six weeks in order to avoid voting during the pre-Christmas season. Election day would be 6th January 1983. Much as this ill-suited Thatcher, who might benefit from a hurried contest light on scrutiny, the timing of a Winter election gave little option. Besides, decisions were no longer fully in her hands; the Prime Minister's authority extended to an inner circle of dependable ministers (not all sharing the Thatcherite religion) and scarcely beyond. 2,500 candidates entered and filed their nomination papers in the ensuing period. Under a majoritarian system, predicting the outcome with several big rivals - Conservative, Labour and SDP/Liberal - defied norms. Every result in Britain's post-war era showed a duel between two parties; all polling indicated a new set of rules. The Daily Telegraph's Gallup survey had the Alliance with 36%, Conservatives 33% and Labour 29%. In such a dragged out campaign, events could intervene to tip any contender into first place, with unorthodox seat tallies. Wary of losing out, a significant number of MPs from all tribes eyed new constituencies, particularly in light of reorganised boundaries. The 635-strong House of Commons was due to be enlarged with 650 seats. David Steel and Shirley Williams made certain that defectors such as Edward Heath and Ian Gilmour could find safe or winnable areas to fight once election day arrived.

View attachment 75290

Campaign over.Christmas? Find that hard to imagine.

 

[Lucon50]

Campaign over.Christmas? Find that hard to imagine.

Of course, it's unlikely to happen in usual circumstances. Events led to a no confidence vote on 22 November and a snap election, so either the campaign is very short, runs until say 22 December (close to Xmas) or is carried over to January. No doubt, the parties will need time to prepare and have a break during the holidays. Examples of this happening include the recent Czech presidential race.

 

[Lucon50]

On Sunday 5th December, Steel met Williams and the Alliance's leading lights at his Ettrickbridge home to devise a campaign strategy. Both were admired by voters; therefore, equal prominence was agreed for Liberal and SDP figures. Roy Jenkins appeared confident. Edward Heath, often known for being aloof, took great interest with regards to events planning and grassroots coordination. His counterpart, Liberal president John Griffiths, launched a review of party structures and drew on experience in public relations when the topic of communications was raised. SDP media guru Peter Mandelson spearheaded a media approach that innovated political broadcasts, marketing, clear logo imagery and forms of advertising to enhance the Alliance's relevance and brand. David Owen co-chaired the policy process with Roy Jenkins, Alan Beith and David Penhaligon to build a joint manifesto. It would need to satisfy classical and social liberals, moderate conservatives, ex-Gaitskellites, left- and right-social democrats. Ordinary members sent ideas in by letter, thrashing these out in local assemblies. Such a highly professional, decentralised and open exercise surpassed Labour and especially the Tories.



Mr Steel and Mrs Williams held a conference at the National Liberal Club soon after, in front of twenty Alliance spokespeople and keen press journalists. Roy Jenkins introduced them. "We are in a new scene so far as British politics is concerned," he argued. "Both parts of the Alliance are having very substantial swings indeed to them." Jenkins castigated the Government for wasting North Sea oil, running down public services and leaving a record of high inflation and unemployment. He praised Steel and Williams for showing how a "credible but radical" alternative to laissez-faire markets and Bennism could be put into effect. The Alliance would "control runaway wages and prices" before launching a programme of economic expansion to create jobs. Next, the Liberal leader took to the stage. As he outlined plans to invest in capital projects and businesses, Michael Foot was holding a rally in the north of England. Huge masses gathered to hear a socialist analysis of Conservative failure and Labour's proposals. Tony Benn attracted even larger crowds, speaking as the voice of families out of work. "Ours is a movement for human dignity," he said. "Against those forces which still try to persuade us that men and women should be crucified on a cross of gold in the name of monetarism, profit and loss. We will not accept that."



In her speech, Williams rejected the constitutional status quo. "The electoral system is, I believe, in many ways now profoundly unfair; one might even say corrupt. It must reflect the popular will." She talked of pushing Labour back into its old heartlands, cutting into Tory votes and making a breakthrough. "The Alliance is poised to become the next government." Many working-class communities, including those made redundant, hailed Benn as their saviour. Voters put off by a transformative socialist answer looked to the SDP and Liberals. Key sections nonetheless wanted a progressive, ambitious offering. Independents who previously backed the Conservatives now flirted with Alliance policies. Divisions on the left were matched by a split in Tory ranks, between centrists in favour of Keynesianism and the New Right, populists who adored Mrs Thatcher's experiment at unravelling the British consensus. Former non-voters were evenly shared by Labour, Liberals and SDP. Each side targeted these demographics vigorously with new messages. 1983 presented a once in a generation chance to select from three parties who espoused thoroughly different visions.



The Prime Minister immediately took to the airwaves, insisting that the Alliance had "no clear policies", which Steel described as "nonsense". Labour, she said, was extreme and by giving them a chance, Britain would repeat the Winter of Discontent. Endless strikes and botched negotiations made this a lethal political weapon in 1979; now, memories of recent chaos had greater potency. Further, the contrast actually spurred Callaghan-to-Thatcher voters into questioning industrial relations and seeing unions more positively, valuing the benefit of standing up for better pay and work conditions. Mrs Thatcher was dismissive. "All our policies are designed to make for industrial recovery and prosperity, and to increase the number of genuine jobs available." She blamed difficult economic indicators on three global recessions, unaffordable debt from loans to the developing world and "enormous inefficiencies" in British firms under Labour. To interview questions concerning the Falklands War, Thatcher claimed voters knew beforehand that "we'd set our face to do what we believed to be right" for the long term, despite calls for a U-turn on Government policy. "Rise to the challenge," came her plea. In response Michael Foot emphasised the issues, calling for: a nuclear freeze ahead of disarmament within a term; £11 billion for an emergency budget to produce half a million jobs in the first year; strict limits on tax rises to avoid choking off recovery as the Conservatives had done; and a Social Programme together with borrowing to invest. Mr Foot stressed the gravity of a crisis "causing such havoc from one end of this country to the other".

 

[Lucon50]

The turmoil worn by Number 10 since losing MPs' confidence opened up a vacuum in politics. Mrs Thatcher's leadership of the party's radical wing did not exercise total authority or strength of support from every part of the membership base. This space gave an opportunity for rivals to exploit, chiefly Enoch Powell. Attracting controversy for his maverick style and polarising views, the former Conservative now sat in Parliament as an Ulster Unionist. Powell's ideas resembled a kind of libertarian High Toryism. In the man's own words, this could be defined as "an almost unlimited faith in the ability of the people to get what they want through peace, capital, profit and a competitive market". Demanding privatisation and similar reforms long before 1979, Mr Powell also championed traditional state institutions, e.g. monarchy and the House of Lords, whilst railing against Britain's 'special relationship' with America and EEC membership. National conservatives of the 'God and Empire' type saw in Powell a fellow traveller unblemished by the Thatcher project. A towering mind and sway with common voters added to his influence with some. Divisive positions, however - opposing the death penalty but advocating the repatriation of immigrants, while recently campaigning to end nuclear arms - suggested an idiosyncratic nature.

As the general election began, Powell raised his profile. Thatcher's period in office had been marked by frequent unrest on the streets of Britain's major cities. "Social conditions have nothing to do with it," he said. "The same conditions in County Durham or Worcestershire don't cause people to arrive in large numbers, fight with the police, overturn cars, burn their towns down. There's something special, isn't there? If you're looking for people to blame, it's those who were warned that the conditions in which this would happen were continuing and intensifying, yet did nothing to stop it." Powell carried a menacing diatribe against extensive immigration, Asian and black populations, making racialised links to crime and displacement which earned him friends as well as enemies. SDP education spokesman Roy Hattersley instead pointed to "an air of depression" in areas with poor housing. He criticised the Government for neglecting to "do dramatic things" to fix the root causes and prevent it from resurfacing. On the campaign trail, Mr Powell visited multi-ethnic working-class neighbourhoods afflicted by poverty and discord. In stump speeches, he pitted British sovereignty vs the EEC, rejected Irish and American participation in the Ulster question, condemned the "race relations industry", the press and establishment forces. He darkly predicted mass civil violence. "I warned you, my fellow countrymen... some fifteen year ago. While there was failure to understand and even incredulity, there is no such incomprehension now. People say: 'Enoch was right'."

 

[marktaha]

On Sunday 5th December, Steel met Williams and the Alliance's leading lights at his Ettrickbridge home to devise a campaign strategy. Both were admired by voters; therefore, equal prominence was agreed for Liberal and SDP figures. Roy Jenkins appeared confident. Edward Heath, often known for being aloof, took great interest with regards to events planning and grassroots coordination. His counterpart, Liberal president John Griffiths, launched a review of party structures and drew on experience in public relations when the topic of communications was raised. SDP media guru Peter Mandelson spearheaded a media approach that innovated political broadcasts, marketing, clear logo imagery and forms of advertising to enhance the Alliance's relevance and brand. David Owen co-chaired the policy process with Roy Jenkins, Alan Beith and David Penhaligon to build a joint manifesto. It would need to satisfy classical and social liberals, moderate conservatives, ex-Gaitskellites, left- and right-social democrats. Ordinary members sent ideas in by letter, thrashing these out in local assemblies. Such a highly professional, decentralised and open exercise surpassed Labour and especially the Tories.

View attachment 75407

Mr Steel and Mrs Williams held a conference at the National Liberal Club soon after, in front of twenty Alliance spokespeople and keen press journalists. Roy Jenkins introduced them. "We are in a new scene so far as British politics is concerned," he argued. "Both parts of the Alliance are having very substantial swings indeed to them." Jenkins castigated the Government for wasting North Sea oil, running down public services and leaving a record of high inflation and unemployment. He praised Steel and Williams for showing how a "credible but radical" alternative to laissez-faire markets and Bennism could be put into effect. The Alliance would "control runaway wages and prices" before launching a programme of economic expansion to create jobs. Next, the Liberal leader took to the stage. As he outlined plans to invest in capital projects and businesses, Michael Foot was holding a rally in the north of England. Huge masses gathered to hear a socialist analysis of Conservative failure and Labour's proposals. Tony Benn attracted even larger crowds, speaking as the voice of families out of work. "Ours is a movement for human dignity," he said. "Against those forces which still try to persuade us that men and women should be crucified on a cross of gold in the name of monetarism, profit and loss. We will not accept that."

View attachment 75409

In her speech, Williams rejected the constitutional status quo. "The electoral system is, I believe, in many ways now profoundly unfair; one might even say corrupt. It must reflect the popular will." She talked of pushing Labour back into its old heartlands, cutting into Tory votes and making a breakthrough. "The Alliance is poised to become the next government." Many working-class communities, including those made redundant, hailed Benn as their saviour. Voters put off by a transformative socialist answer looked to the SDP and Liberals. Key sections nonetheless wanted a progressive, ambitious offering. Independents who previously backed the Conservatives now flirted with Alliance policies. Divisions on the left were matched by a split in Tory ranks, between centrists in favour of Keynesianism and the New Right, populists who adored Mrs Thatcher's experiment at unravelling the British consensus. Former non-voters were evenly shared by Labour, Liberals and SDP. Each side targeted these demographics vigorously with new messages. 1983 presented a once in a generation chance to select from three parties who espoused thoroughly different visions.

View attachment 75410

The Prime Minister immediately took to the airwaves, insisting that the Alliance had "no clear policies", which Steel described as "nonsense". Labour, she said, was extreme and by giving them a chance, Britain would repeat the Winter of Discontent. Endless strikes and botched negotiations made this a lethal political weapon in 1979; now, memories of recent chaos had greater potency. Further, the contrast actually spurred Callaghan-to-Thatcher voters into questioning industrial relations and seeing unions more positively, valuing the benefit of standing up for better pay and work conditions. Mrs Thatcher was dismissive. "All our policies are designed to make for industrial recovery and prosperity, and to increase the number of genuine jobs available." She blamed difficult economic indicators on three global recessions, unaffordable debt from loans to the developing world and "enormous inefficiencies" in British firms under Labour. To interview questions concerning the Falklands War, Thatcher claimed voters knew beforehand that "we'd set our face to do what we believed to be right" for the long term, despite calls for a U-turn on Government policy. "Rise to the challenge," came her plea. In response Michael Foot emphasised the issues, calling for: a nuclear freeze ahead of disarmament within a term; £11 billion for an emergency budget to produce half a million jobs in the first year; strict limits on tax rises to avoid choking off recovery as the Conservatives had done; and a Social Programme together with borrowing to invest. Mr Foot stressed the gravity of a crisis "causing such havoc from one end of this country to the other".

View attachment 75411

Limits on tax rises?

 

[Lucon50]

Limits on tax rises?

Yup! In 1983 Michael Foot historically promised borrowing as a way of minimising any tax rises, stating that he actually preferred to lower taxation on workers. New spending plans would be mainly financed by government debt.