Ave Império: What if Brazil reformed in 1889?

[NotDavidSoslan]

During his presidency, Haya de la Torre carried out land reform, the implementation of a progressive income tax, the nationalisation of mining, creation of several state monopolies, and a strong alliance with Brazil.

He managed to remain in office for a full term thanks to the stationing of Imperial troops in Peruvian territory, who were ready to foil any coup attempt by the Peruvian Armed Forces; the chilling effect also helped prevent other military coups in Latin America until 1971, when Castro got couped, followed by Allende in 1973.

Many of these reforms failed to pass or had negative effects, allowing Belaúnde to defeat the APRA nominee by a convincing margin in the 1969 election, which marked the decline of Brazilian influence in Latin America.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

In 2022, two PNB MPs left the party in order to form the Alliance for Brazil (Aliança), which supports neoliberal economics and an end to the welfare state.

Aliança was formally registered in October 2023, and is polling at 3.5% for the general election to be held in 2025.

Unlike the PRP, which consistently had representation in the General Assembly during the 1950–1970 period, the PNB initially struggled to win higher office, only electing city councillors and, in the 1990 elections, one state deputy, Lenine Madeira (Rio de Janeiro). In gubernatorial races, it frequently won 0.5 to 1% of the vote.

All of this changed with the Great Recession and increased immigration to Brazil, when the party's economic and cultural nationalist platform became appealing to the middle and working classes, and the PNB incorporated opposition to abortion and gay rights to its platform, in order to court the growing evangelical vote. It supported "No" votes in the 2014 and 2019 referendums, and is the only party in the Assembly to advocate for abortion to be rebanned. The recovery of the Brazilian economy, growth of the PDC, and the new neoliberal splinter party are hurting the PNB's polling numbers for 2025.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Maluf remained a federal deputy for São Paulo until his arrest; he was released in 2020.

The administration of Mário Covas privatized all state-owned banks other than the Banco Central do Brasil, legalized gambling (which had been outlawed in 1951), and otherwise continued the economic approach of his predecessor, although he created several social programs, such as Bolsa Escola and Fome Zero, and followed a softer approach to crime.

Maluf's foreign policy continued the Brazilian tradition of national independence, while returning to a more pro-Western stance by supporting the Chilean and (before Falklands) Argentine juntas, militarily intervening in Angola in support of the FNLA regime, and supporting the invasion of Grenada. He also oversaw the commissioning of a Brazilian nuclear submarine, armed with nuclear missiles, and the strategy of firing into "all directions" (including the US) if Brazil was threatened continued.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Brazil is the third-oldest liberal democracy in the world, behind the United Kingdom and United States, and has military bases in Angola, São Tomé e Príncipe and Cape Verde.

It has had five emperors, all of whom had Pedro as their first name, and the ruling dynasty is the House of Orleans and Bragança, a branch of the former Portuguese royal family.

Since 1979, Brazil and Japan have been the only countries in the world with an emperor as head of state. Both countries have strong and friendly relations in the economic, diplomatic and cultural fields.

Brazil has strong relations with Israel, although it moved closer to the Arab world from the 1960s onwards, with Prime Minister Maluf being a good friend of Saddam Hussein, who ruled Iraq from 1979 until his death in 2009.

RICS is an economy bloc composed of Russia, India China and South Africa. Argentina was previously a member, but it left in 2024, after Javier Milei took office. Its history of dictatorships and coups d'etat is a strong contrast with Brazil, which has consistently been a democracy for the last 200 years.

In 1948, the National Foundation of the Indian (FUNAI) was founded during the Christian socialist premiership of Domingos Vellasco. The previous policy of assimilating indigenous peoples to white society was mostly abandoned and replaced with the protection of their land, culture and traditions, although land conflicts have continued to this day and increased after Malufnomics.

The Brazilian Army has never had much political importance, and always been controlled by the civilian cabinets. In spite of this, most ministers of war since 1891 have been former military officers, in order to prevent a republican military coup.

Marijuana is still illegal in Brazil, being a socially polarizing topic whose legalization is opposed by most politicians. It legalized gay marriage in 2013, with same-sex relations having been legal since 1831.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

In May 1888, one of the Brazilian MPs who voted against the abolition of slavery said there would soon be a republican coup d'etat, but this did not happen (although there were fears in 1930).

The Contestado War was triggered by land conflicts in a region contested between the provinces of Santa Catarina and Paraná, as well as the fanaticism and mysticism of the local population. It ended with the stronger Brazilian army defeating the rebels, part of whose ideology stated legendary Portuguese king Sebastião I was the legitimate monarch of Brazil (Sebastianism) and the Orleans and Bragança dynasty were illegitimate.

In 1963, there were clashes between the Imperial Brazilian Army and the French Army in French Guyana. Since 1945, when Brazil was admitted as a permanent UNSC member over France, relations between the two countries were tense, since Charles de Gaulle and the French nationalists were enraged. (By 1963, De Gaulle had been out of office for five years, having been succeeded by another conservative, since the backlash made him remain in power after the war).

Brazil is an important arms exporter, especially to smaller Latin American countries and Lusophone Africa. It is the main arms supplier of the following countries:

• Ecuador
• Paraguay
• Uruguay
• Bolivia
• Angola
• Mozambique

As of 2023, the Brazilian Army operates 125 Leopard 2 tanks, 280 B1 Centauro tank destroyers, 423 ASTROS 2020 MRLS, 235 M109A5 self-propelled howitzers, 450 towed howitzers, 42 NASAMS SAM launchers, 31 Eurocopter Tiger attack helicopters, and 443 transport helicopters.

Brazil's nuclear missiles are operated by the Imperial Air Force (ground launchers) and Imperial Navy (submarine-launched missiles). The B-1 (English Electric Canberra under license) bomber was retired in 1986.

During the final phase of the Russo-Ukrainian War (2018–2023), Brazil donated part of its weapons to the AFU, also providing them with ASTROS 2020 launchers and Guarani APCs.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Brazil's first aircraft carrier was launched in 1955, as the NAe Minas Gerais. In 2000, the NAe Atlântico was comissioned to replace it.

The nuclear submarine program was started in the 1960s by Leonel Brizola, but economic instability and lack of experience meant the first Brazilian nuclear submarine, the Tupi, was comissioned in 1981; there wouldn't be a ballistic missile submarine in service until 1989.

The Minas Gerais started operating the naval variant of Brazil's indigenous fighter jet in 1961. In 1987, it was replaced by Harriers, which in turn are being replaced by the F-35 since 2018.

In 2005, the administration of Antônio Britto sent warships to Somalia in order to fight the pirates. While they have remained there since, even taking part in actions against the Houthis as of January 2024, this was initially widely ridiculed and undermined the PDC cabinet's popularity.

Corporal punishment was abolished by the Brazilian Navy in 1893, during the cabinet of Rui Barbosa, who is considered to be one of the greatest Prime Ministers in Brazilian history.

Missiles started being used in the Brazilian navy in the late 1960s, as the Brizola cabinet replaced WWII-era warships with newer ones. This proved the Imperial Navy was not as innovative as it had been one century earlier.

Roberto da Gama e Silva, a right-wing nationalist admiral and card-carrying PNB member, was one of the main articulators of the Brazilian intervention in Angola, and actively participated in it, including by delivering humanitarian supplies to Luanda.

As of 2024, the Imperial Navy is the strongest in the Southern Hemisphere.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Mato Grosso province has an area of 1,260,512 kilometers.

Tocantins is Brazil's youngest province, having been founded in the 1990s after decades of campaigning by locals in what was then northern Goiás.

The province of Guanabara existed between 1940 and 1964, when Leonel Brizola merged it with Rio de Janeiro, which was poorer and less important.

Rondônia, Roraima and Amapá were founded during WWII, in order to properly defend Brazil's northern borders. Their partisan leaning has evolved with time.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

In 1983, Brazil built a permanent military base in the outskirts of Luanda, during the second year of the Brazilian intervention in Angola.

Brazilian troops have remained there since, although numbers drastically dropped after UNITA laid down its arms, and the current amount of personnel stationed in Angola consists of an Infantry division with 25,000 soldiers.

In São Tomé, the Imperial Brazilian Navy operates a naval base where two corvettes are stationed as of January 2024. They have taken part in anti-piracy operations in the Bight of Biafra.

Brazil operates an Army base in Praia, Cape Verde, having an infantry brigade permanently stationed there. The Imperial Brazilian Air Force has access to the airport in Praia, but has never flown aircraft from it.

Previously, Brazil militarily occupied Paraguay from 1870 to 1876, and French Guyana from 1940 to 1943.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Pedro IV, the Emperor of Brazil between 1940 and his death in 2007, is the seventh-longest reigning sovereign monarch in history, having reigned for 66 years, 11 months and 2 days.

(I used a picture of Austro-Hungarian emperor Charles due to Wikipedia Commons not having an actual picture of Pedro Gastão)

He is also the second-longest reigning resident monarch in the history of the Americas, behind Pacal.

His full name was Pedro de Alcântara Gastão de Orléans e Bragança. During his reign, Brazil joined the UN Security Council and became a nuclear power, later launching a military intervention in Angola. He dissolved Parliament to schedule new general elections in 1974 and 1999, both during PSB cabinets, and controversially refused to do so in 1988, when corruption scandals hit the PDC administration of Paulo Maluf.

Pedro IV remained neutral during the 1994 constitutional referendum, promising to peacefully abdicate if the monarchy was abolished. However, the referendum failed, and he remained in the throne until his death.

Pedro IV was a friend of the British royal family, and attended the coronation of Elizabeth II, later sending his son Pedro Carlos to Princess Diana's funeral, since he was too old to travel by plane. The House of Orleans and Bragança has also kept strong relations with the Japanese imperial family and the royal families of Spain, the Netherlands and Thailand.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Brazilian political parties with parliamentary representation on the political compass.

Before the 1980s, PSB was on the Authoritarian Left quadrant due to its support for the welfare state, land reform and nationalisation of industry, while PDC was more economically centrist, believing in a social market economy.

While no one canonically makes this comparison, the PNB is similar to the old Conservative Party (Saquaremas) during their peak, as both parties supported industrialisation, protectionism and economic nationalism while being strongly supportive of the monarchy and societal order.

United Left is actually a split ticket of the eco-socialist Green Party (Partido Verde, PV) and the Brizolist Brazilian Labour Party (Partido Trabalhista Brasileiro, PTB), similar to the Labour and Cooperative Party in the UK. However, since they're part of the same parliamentary caucus, this distinction is seldom made, and PTB itself was weakened by the creation of the socially conservative, economically populist PDT.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

During WWII, the Imperial Air Force took part in the Sicilian and Italian campaigns, being quite successful against Axis forces and infrastructure.

It later sent a small wing of Gloster Meteor jet fighters to the Korean War, and later in the 1950s brought licensed Canberra bombers from Britain as part of Prime Minister Afonso Arinos' Independent Foreign Policy.

I forgot to mention that the FAIB controls Brazil's 50 to 80 ground-launched nuclear missiles, which boast a range of 1,000 to 2,000 kilometers and are stationed in silos across the Amazon Rainforest. The submarine-launched missiles are controlled by the Navy, with Brazil currently owning 100 to 150 nuclear warheads.

The F-55 Tucano and F-74 Harpia are second and fourth-generation, respectively, fighter jets developed by Brazil. While the F-55 was an air superiority fighter with aircraft carrier and interceptor variants, the F-74 is a multirole aircraft that fullfils the roles of interceptor, air superiority fighter, trainer and attack aircraft. It was modernized in the 1990s, and is set to be replaced with the F-35 by 2040.

During the Angolan Civil War, the F-74 was used in airstrikes against UNITA insurgents, being typically out of reach of their SA-7 and other MANPADS, which were more effective against AH-1 Cobra attack helicopters, themselves gradually withdrawn after 1986, when parallels were drawn with the Afghanistan war and the Stinger.

The F-74T is the advanced trainer variant of the Harpia. The AT-27 Tucano, on the other hand, is only used for basic training.

The C-390 entered service in 2008, and has currently been ordered by the air forces of 16 countries.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

The Empire of Brazil in 1936.

João Mangabeira's younger brother, Otávio Mangabeira, was a classical liberal who withdrew from politics during the 1930s in order to avoid family conflicts over ideology. He returned to politics during the 1940s, switching from the PL to the PDC in 1945 and being elected Governor of Bahia for the Christian Democrats the following year.

After leaving the premiership, João Mangabeira remained an important MP for Salvador, retiring in 1955 and dying six years later. He recieved a state funeral that was attended by Prime Minister Leonel Brizola and 25,000 other people.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Brazilian Prime Ministers since 1930 by ideology

João Mangabeira: Democratic Socialism

Hermes Lima: Democratic Socialism

Domingos Vellasco: Christian Socialism

Cristiano Machado: Christian Democracy

Afonso Arinos: Christian Democracy

Leonel Brizola: Left-Wing Nationalism

Petrônio Portela: Liberal Conservatism

Aarão Steinbruch: Social Democracy

Paulo Maluf: Neoliberal Conservatism

Mário Covas: Third Way

Antônio Britto: Neoliberal Conservatism

Eduardo Campos: Third Way

Indio da Costa: Right-wing populism

Flávio Dino: Social Democracy

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

The conservative-leaning Pedro IV had been looking to get rid of Brizola for some time, and the Arab oil embargo, which suffocated industrialized economies, gave him the perfect opportunity to do it. (It should be 21 July 1974 and eight months)

On 21 December 1973, Pedro IV sacked Brizola and scheduled new elections to be held eight months after that date. The former prime minister left Brasília, but remained a MP and was later elected Governor of Rio de Janeiro in 1982.

Brizola remained party leader until 18 January 1974, when the PSB held a new leadership election where he did not run, with the following candidates:

• Rubens Paiva, former unsuccessful candidate for Governor of São Paulo;
• Celso Brant, MP for Diamantina-MG;
• Aarão Steinbruch, Senator for Rio de Janeiro;
• Renato Archer, MP for São Luís-MA.

Steinbruch emerged as the winner, with the votes of 48.7% of Constituency Socialist Parties to Brant's 25.3%, Paiva's 16.8% and Archer's 9.2%. (That was before the PSB introduced leadership primaries in 1988, following the landslide loss to the PDC).

On 26 November 1973, the PDC leadership chose Senator for São Paulo Franco Montoro to be party leader, beating MP for Piauí do Leste-PI Petrônio Portela and Bahia province president Antônio Carlos Magalhães.

On 3 December 1973, Ulysses Guimarães was nearly unanimously chosen as the Liberal Party's leader; the party advocated for centrism, a social market economy and a referendum on the form of government.

Since the PSB distanced itself from Brizola and instead ran on a social democratic platform of social justice, economic and diplomatic independence and civil liberties, the main issues of the election were inflation, law and order (especially with the Revolutionary Workers' Party being active in the favelas) and the independence of former Portuguese colonies.

Polls initially showed a comfortable PDC victory, but they drew closer as the election approached, and the eventual result was a hung parliament and coalition government between PDC and PL, which upset conservatives led by Paulo Maluf.

The Brazilian Communist Party, now no longer led by Carlos Lacerda, finished fourth in the popular vote with 1%, but elected no MPs, and its best showing was 18.9% of the vote in a Rio de Janeiro constituency. This was the last election the far-right Party of Popular Representation contested before its leader Plínio Salgado died and it transformed into the more moderate Brazilian Nationalist Party.

Montoro pursued a moderate political agenda, leading to significant internal splits within the party and a PSB victory under Steinbruch in 1975.


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[NotDavidSoslan]

During his short premiership, Franco Montoro imposed wage and price controls to fight inflation, issued middle-class tax cuts, and eased requeriments to start a bank.

He also began supporting the FNLA in Angola, eventually leading to its victory at Quifangondo and seizure of power.

The conservative wing of the PDC, dominant in the southeast and center-west, opposed many of Montoro's policies, instead proposing tax cuts, privatisation and deregulation, and Paulo Maluf announced the foundation of the PDS on 26 September 1974. It advocated for a hawkish foreign policy, tough approach to crime and neoliberal economics, and fielded 317 candidates to the General Assembly. The PDS initially polled at 6%, but after a devastating loss at a October 1974 by-election, its support declined and the party won 2% of the vote and no seats.

The "soft left" Steinbruch made several concessions towards Brizolism, such as by opposing a full shift away from Keynesian economics and advocating for the continuation of Brazil's nuclear strike force. However, the 1975 party platform began the PSB's shift away from economic nationalism and embrace of Third Way policies, a process complete by 1990.

The PL platform advocated for proportional representation in General Assembly elections, and the use of FPTP (see Duverger's law) limited its gains to four seats, all in the Southeast and South. Under the leadership of Orestes Quércia, the party made gains in 1980, but never captured the premiership, which has alternated between the PSB and PDC for 90 years.

Steinbruch followed most of his campaign premises, and helped crush a military coup in Argentina, which was followed by a presidential election in 1976, but the PDC won the 1980 general election nevertheless.


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[NotDavidSoslan]

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

In 1986, the PSB's executive comission carried out major reforms in the party, not just direct leadership elections but also greater representation for women and minorities.

Before the reforms, party leaders were elected by constituency offices.

This was in response to the PDC's 1985 landslide during Maluf's premiership. Two years previously, the UK Labour Party under Tony Benn had defeated Thatcher's Tories, as she failed to fix the economy.

PSB voters perceived Bisol, party leader since 1981, as responsible for their landslide defeat, and responded accordingly by electing a moderate who advocated for the Third Way ideology, or something close to it.

By 1989, there were also corruption scandals in the Maluf administration, also adding the factor Covas was seen as more honest than Bisol.

Celso Brant, the nationalist MP for Minas Gerais who had also ran for PSB leader in 1973, won 247,665 votes in the leadership election, or 1.2%. Roberto Freire, a democratic socialist MP for Recife, won 60,151 votes, or 0.3%.

Leaders of the PSB since 1989:

• Mário Covas (1989–1999)
• José Serra (1999–2005)
• Geraldo Alckmin (2005–2008)
• Eduardo Campos (2008–2016)
• Antonio Anastasia (2016–2018)
• Flávio Dino (2018–present)

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

The 1930 snap election, called after the stock market crash, was the last when the original Liberal Party made gains or finished second.

The Republican Party, which advocated for corporatism and conservative modernisation as well as a plebiscite on the form of government, made little impact outside of the South in spite of finishing third. Its strongest provinces in other regions were São Paulo and Minas Gerais, where the monarchy was less popular.

The Conservative Party's appeal was practically limited to its traditional Northern strongholds, and the party did not elect any MPs in several provinces. The PC and PL continued to suffer losses until the 1945 election, the last they contested.

The election's demographics were as follows:

• PSB: Urban working class and intellectuals.
• PL: Middle class and wealthy voters.
• PR: Gaúchos, republican militants and some businessmen.
• PC: Landowners and conservative Catholics.

The Brazilian Communist Party (PCB) and Social Nationalist Party (PSN) also contested the election, with less success.A

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

The 1960 general election was one of the most important in Brazilian history. It saw Leonel Brizola's PSB defeat the PDC under Carvalho Pinto, who returned to the party leadership after 9 years out.

The PSB ran on land reform, the nationalisation of energy and transportation, and asserting Brazil's sovereignty on the global stage, including by developing nuclear weapons. The party leadership, having gone through three leaders (Domingos Vellasco, Alberto Pasqualini and Vitorino Freire) in ten years, embraced Brizolism as key to an election victory and ensured most PSB candidates followed his line.

The PDC campaigned on anti-communism and support for the United States in the Cold War, while emphasizing their independent foreign policy and support for a social market economy in order to prevent PSB from gaining votes on these issues. Its economic policy before the late 1970s consisted of cooperation between public interests and private enterprise, opposing both laissez-faire economics and socialism. Afonso Arinos, Prime Minister of Brazil during most of the 1950s, was a moderate Prime Minister who passed a racial equality bill and followed an independent foreign policy.

The PSD was originally a liberal centrist party, but after Milton Campos became party leader, it shifted to the right in order to win over former Conservative Party voters. This shift gave them northeastern strongholds, but proved disastrous in other regions, and the party was superceded by the Liberal Party in 1969.

Under Brizola's ambitious leadership, the PSB won further general elections in 1965 and 1970, before Pedro IV sacked him in 1974.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Achievements of the Domingos Vellasco premiership (1945–1950)

• Extended unemployment insurance and social security to rural workers;
• Made healthcare free for people contributing to social security;
• Continued the construction of highways and airfields, in order to better integrate the country;
• Heavily subsidied childcare, which had been lacking since the 1920s;
• Used federal arbitration to end strikes;
• Refused to join the anti-communist hysteria of the late 1940s, and supported keeping the Communist Party legal;
• Ensured humane treatment of civilians during the Brazilian occupation of part of Austria;
• Formed the National Nuclear Energy Comission in January 1947;
• Started a shift from protectionism to free trade policies and economic integration with Latin America;
• Formed the ABC Pact, a military alliance involving Brazil, Argentina and Chile that continues to this day and impacted these countries' histories;
• Opened Brazilian grain sales to the USSR;
• Sought land reform, which would not be achieved until Brizola;
• Through Petrobrás, formed oil research agreements with Venezuela and Mexico.

The strikes and Vellasco's allegedly insufficient anti-communism made the PSB lose the 1950 general election to the PDC under Cristiano Machado.