Ave Império: What if Brazil reformed in 1889?

[NotDavidSoslan]

The right-wing populist Brazilian Nationalist Party (PNB) won two seats and 1,965,332 votes, adding up to 2.6% of the vote.

It elected the following MPs:

• Havanir Nimitz for São Paulo-SP
• Jair Bolsonaro for Rio de Janeiro-RJ

The Liberal Party, by contrast, only elected one MP, winning 1,263,654 votes, or 1.7% of the NPV. They would be swept out of parliament altogether in 2015.

The Brazilian Labour Party, a left-wing populist and economic nationalist party led by MP for Campos dos Goytacazes Anthony Garotinho, won 5 seats and 5.7% of the vote by running on a platform to the left of the Socialists economically (but not as environmentalist as the Greens). The following MPs were elected:

• Ciro Gomes for Sobral-CE;
• Aldo Rebelo for São Paulo-SP
• Paulinho da Força for São Bernardo do Campo-SP;
• Rosinha Garotinho for Macaé-RJ;
• Anthony Garotinho for Campos dos Goytacazes-RJ.

The Socialist Party continued to run on a Third Way platform, in spite of a growing left-wing revolt in its ranks that later costed them the 2015 election, where the Christian Democrats won a narrow majority.

The PDC, by contrast, campaigned on liberal, pro-business conservatism, but Antônio Britto was never very popular, and this backfired on their faces, leading to an overwhelming defeat for them.

This was the first social media election for Brazil; the PSB widely used the Internet for campaigning, embracing sites such as Orkut, YouTube, Twitter and Facebook, and regularly updating its official website. The PDC, by contrast, focused on television, as their policies were mostly unappealing to younger voters.



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[NotDavidSoslan]

The 1930 and 2014 World Cups, as well as the 1926 and 2016 Summer Olympics, have been held in Brazil.

By the end of WWI, the country was considered to be a great power, hence why two major sports events were held within four years. The cabinet of Eduardo Campos returned to its emphasis on sport, hence why it happen again.

In 2011, the United States under President Mitt Romney invaded Iraq, led by Qusay Hussein after Saddam died in 2009, in order to disarm an alleged nuclear program and support the Shia protestors Qusay had brutally repressed. The Iraqi military was defeated within two months, and Iraq was put under US military occupation. There was strong opposition to the war worldwide, and it triggered a refugee crisis that emboldened the far-right, but United States forces remain in Iraq as of January 2024, in order to fight terrorists. Brazilian protestors (and the Campos administration for that matter), were also anti-war for the most part.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Manuela, like Marina Silva before her, aimed to become the first female Prime Minister, but, in spite of wide grassroots support, she failed to win over the neoliberal PSB estabilishment.

Indio da Costa, on the other hand, had an easier time winning over the PDC establishment, as he emphasized his youth, alleged charisma, and conservative views. As such, he managed to defeat the ageing, centre-right Senator Álvaro Dias.

The Brazilian Nationalist Party, led by MP for Rio de Janeiro and Angola veteran Jair Bolsonaro, made small gains, winning five seats (including a right-wing Christian Democrat who had switched parties) and 5% of the vote. They did best in Amazonas, Acre, Rondônia and Roraima, all of which had a high concentration of evangelical voters, and the first of which saw United Left win a plurality of the vote.

In 2018, Pedro Carlos I sacked Índio da Costa after major corruption scandals, and Flávio Dino, the governor of Maranhão province, subsequently became Prime Minister following the Socialist victory in that year's general election. Dino remains in office as of 2024, managing to mostly stabilize Brazilian politics.



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[NotDavidSoslan]

During his two years as Prime Minister, Indio da Costa deregulated housing and small businesses, made the Banco do Brasil independent from the executive branch, and abolished the "union tax" implemented by Domingos Vellasco in 1947.

The Brazilian economy struggled to recover during his premiership, and by the time he was sacked, it was still in a crisis, with the crime rates still high in spite of his tough on crime approach.

The PSB's campaign promises were to finish stalled public works, implement a wealth tax, decriminalize marijuana, hold a referendum on the legalisation of abortion, overturn some privatisations, electrify the country's bus fleet by 2040, overturn the pro-business environmental policies of the PDC administration that placed the environment and indigenous peoples at risk, promote renewable energy, and focus on rehabilitation for minor crimes.

The PNB supports economic nationalism, opposing both liberalism and communism, and advocates for a reindustrialisation program, the expansion of the internal market, and protectionism. They strongly oppose immigration from Haiti and the Middle East, as well as the influence of foreign NGOs and international organizations.

NOVO, by contrast, ran on a flat tax, school vouchers, the adoption of a Bolsa Família-style system for education and healthcare, and the legalisation of marijuana. It elected seven MPs to the General Assembly, most of whom represented São Paulo or Santa Catarina.

The Socialist Party's leftward shift paid off, as the United Left lost 30 seats, the majority of which were located in Northeastern Brazil. However, all of the coalition's main leaders won reelection.

The Christian Democrats' nomination of a low-profile technocrat did not help them electorally, as voters invariably associated them with the corruption under Maluf and Costa. Therefore, they lost almost 100 seats.

In 2020, the PSB won another election, with the PNB becoming the third-strongest party and the Socialists making gains at the expense of the United Left.



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[NotDavidSoslan]

In April 2019, Aldo Rebelo, André Janones, and three other MPs of the Socialist Party and United Left split from those parties in order to found the Democratic Labour Party (PDT), a centre-left, pro-life party.

Two Christian Democratic MPs, on the other hand, were expelled from the PDC for their support of the "Yes" vote. They joined the PSB, integrating its centrist, pro-business wing.

Turnout was relatively low, considering voting has been mandatory in Brazil since 1935, which indicated many people were uninterested in the abortion debate and viewed the economy and crime as more important.

Prime Minister Flávio Dino was a major supporter of decriminalization, later thanking voters for "taking this issue off the hands of the government and into the hands of the pregnant woman". Former Prime Minister Antônio Britto, on the other hand, opposed it, as the right to life is a constitutional right in Brazil.

The referendum was also geographically polarized; all of the wealthy Southeast and South (other than heavily Catholic Santa Catarina) voted Yes, while all other regions (other than the Federal District, where the capital Brasília is located) opposed decriminalizing abortion.

Bills to reban abortion have been proposed in 2020, 2022 and 2023, but never put up to a vote in either chamber of Parliament.

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[NotDavidSoslan]

During his first year in office, aside from abortion, Dino increased teachers' wages, finished stalled public works, opposed the Russian invasion of Ukraine, repealed cuts to healthcare and education, and created a federal drug rehabilitation program.

His COVID policy encouraged people to wear masks to slow the spread, and provincial and municipal governments to impose restrictions, while being careful about the impact on small businesses and the economy. During the campaign, the PDC opposed the possibility of nationwide restrictions, while PNB took an anti-lockdown stance and promoted unproven treatments.

The Christian Democrats made a net gain of five seats, four of which were located in São Paulo and another in Minas Gerais. The Nationalists flipped twelve seats, 8 of which were previously held by the PDC and 4 by the PSB, while two pro-choice PSB incumbents in majority Catholic areas lost reelection to PDT.

The classical liberal New Party made small gains in the General Assembly, flipping three seats from the PSB and another from the PDC, while Esquerda Unida (United Left) suffered losses to the PSB, due to Dino shifting the Socialist Party left and stabilizing Brazilian politics.

The second Dino cabinet took office on 13 December 2020, in a ceremony with a limited amount of guests, physical distancing and masks.



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[NotDavidSoslan]

The republican flag of Brazil, designed in 1888, has been widely used by anti-monarchy groups, as the flag they would adopt in the case Brazil becomes a republic.

The story of the meaning of the flag's colors is widely taught in Brazilian schools, and virtually all literate Brazilians know about it.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

The Free Trade Area of Latin America (ALCLA) is a free trade bloc comprising all Latin American countries other than Venezuela and Nicaragua, which left under their socialist governments, and Mexico, due to NAFTA.

It was founded in 1993, after representatives of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela and Costa Rica signed the Treaty of Buenos Aires, which estabilished the organization and sought economic integration among Latin American countries, and the gradual abolition of tariffs between member states (which has never been achieved). Since the 1920s, Brazil held widespread political influence over other countries in the region, serving as an arms supplier and protector to Latin American governments and largely preventing coups d'etat and dictatorships, with few exceptions.

By 1950, Brazil had become an industrial nation, due to the industrialist policy of all cabinets since 1891. It boasted a massive network of railways connecting virtually all of the South, steel and automobile industries, widespread electrification (the first dam was built in the 1920s), and a protectionist trade policy, which was abandoned by Cristiano Machado and Afonso Arinos.

Starting in 1980, there has been increased financialization as the economy became increasingly service-oriented and many manufacturing workers lost their jobs. Jobs considered to be nonessential were increasingly outsourced and, just like Reaganomics, Malufnomics led to the growth of banks and financial conglomerates at the expense of small businesses, as well as the decline of unions, which were fundamental to the PSB's support.

In the 1960s, the Brazilian economy reached its comparative apex under the developmentalist administration of Leonel Brizola. Among other things, Brizola built the Rio-Niteroi Bridge, Camaçari Petrochemical Complex, and the Angra nuclear power plants, while nationalising essential industries, which were later privatized under Maluf and Covas. He created an universal healthcare system and Christmas wage, which was originally proposed by future Prime Minister Aarão Steinbruch.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Brazil's population growth began to slow down in the late 1960s; at the time, the country had 130 million people.

This was due to the Sexual Revolution, the availability of family planning such as contraception, and the Brazilian economy peaking around the same time as well.

One of the main arguments against decriminalizing abortion was that it would decrease birth rates even further.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

By 1911, the PSB had expanded to São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná and Espírito Santo, in order to take advantage of immigration and the rapid industrialization of Brazil.

(The "three seats in the Senate" should have been removed, since Brazilian senators only became directly elected in 1935, which was when the PSB elected its first Senators)

To this day, Brazilian state legislatures are considerably gerrymandered, which gives the pro-elite PDC a slight upper hand in terms of winning seats.

The PSB's voting base, as of 2024, includes students, the poor, nonwhites, and a considerable amount of Catholics, while evangelical voters tend to support PDC or PNB.

PSB stopped emphasizing economic nationalism during the late 1970s, when Aarão Steinbruch was Prime Minister, in order to adapt to changes in the world economy. The following decade, there was considerable infighting in the party as to how to respond to Malufnomics, with the Brizolist old guard, led by Brizola himself as an elder statesman, and younger technocrats led by Mário Covas fighting a struggle over control of the party that was eventually won by Covas.

During the 21st century, the PSB adopted progressive causes such as environmentalism, LGBTQ+ rights and the decriminalization of abortion, which the PDC mostly oppose or are neutral on.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

As of January 2024, Brazil has 39 Senators from the PSB, 37 from the PDC, one from the PNB and one independent.

While Cristiano Machado and his successor Afonso Arinos ran centrist administrations that sought a balance between capital and labor and followed an independent foreign policy, Paulo Maluf introduced neoliberal economic policies to Brazil and military intervened in Angola against the communists. It was Arinos who began the Brazilian nuclear program that resulted in a nuclear test in 1964, operational IRBMs in 1973, and an operational nuclear submarine in 1983.

The PDC has recently been criticized due to its corruption and conservative stances on abortion and transgender rights, but early polling for the general election set to happen on 3 October 2025 is competitive.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

All prime ministers of Brazil since 1950 (Flávio Dino should be between Lima and Steinbruch) on the political compass.

Afonso Arinos and Mário Covas are supposed to be on the same spot, which shows how 1950s conservatives and the 1990s Third Way were similar.

An important detail about my timeline is that all modern Brazilian prime ministers in it never achieved the presidency in real life. Portela and Steinbruch, the two post-Brizola Prime Ministers, do not even have an English Wikipedia page, and Steinbruch's Wikipedia page does not have a photograph.

João Mangabeira was a liberal socialist and follower of Rui Barbosa, while Domingos Vellasco followed Christian socialism and Brizola had a more nationalist and social corporatist tone. Maluf is almost identical to Reagan in policies and rethoric, while Antônio Britto had a more compromising attitude with PSB and Índio da Costa was possibly the most right-wing Prime Minister in modern Brazilian history.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

The political career and premiership of Aarão Steinbruch (1917–1992)


Steinbruch, 1960s

A lawyer who joined the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) in the 1940s, Steinbruch was elected a federal deputy for the PSB in 1955, representing a district in the province of Guanabara (that would later be merged with Rio de Janeiro by Brizola). He would be subsequently reelected in 1960, having authored bills that regulated several professions and, more famously, creating a Christmas wage.

In 1965, Steinbruch was elected to the Senate. His wife, Júlia Steinbruch, was also a politician, and succeeded her husband in the Chamber of Deputies.

During Brizola's premiership, Steinbruch was a key ally of the Prime Minister, and supported all of his bold nationalist initiatives, including the nuclear program. He only disagreed with Brizola on some minor issues, but turned against him and his radical policies after the 1973 oil shock.

In 1974, following the sacking of Brizola, Steinbruch was nominated to lead the Socialist Party, defeating Brizolist Celso Brant, which some historians attribute to him being a fairly bland figure who could keep the PSB afloat. The general election was close and eventually ended with a hung parliament and a PDC-PL minority government.

However, the premiership of Petrônio Portela saw increased conflict in the PDC between centrists and right-wingers, allowing the PSB under Steinbruch to win a full majority in the regular 1975 election.

**Premiership of Aarão Steinbruch (1975–1980)**

Steinbruch took office in the midst of an economic recession caused by both the international situation and the flaws in Brizola's economics. He ran a more moderate administration than Brizola, with one of his policies being the reduction of tariffs and final opening of Brazil to foreign products.

Steinbruch also followed the lead of Jimmy Carter in deregulating trucking and aviation, and sought to control government spending.On the other hand, there were some progressive measures. Steinbruch's administration expanded the free school meals program created by Brizola to apply to all students, extended paid maternity and sick leave, refused to lower taxes, made the government a reserve employer (effectively codifying the guaranteed employment implemented by his predecessor), and created a family planning program.

On foreign policy, the independent foreign policy begun in the 1950s was continued. Brazil continued to maintain trade links with the Soviet Union, Romania and the PRC, declared neutrality in the Angolan Civil War, condemned human rights abuses by the Cuban military junta, continued nuclear tests and the construction of a nuclear submarine, and recognized the communist governments in Mozambique and Guinea-Bissau.

Steinbruch lost the 1980 general election to the resurgent PDC led by Paulo Maluf, due to an economic recession caused by the second oil shock which ended two years of economic growth. In 1985, returned to the Senate, becoming an opponent of Maluf until resigning in 1990 (Brazilian senators serve for 10-year terms, and Steinbruch died in 1992).

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Major strikes have been held in Brazil in 1930, 1949, 1973 and 2001.


The 1930 strike happened due to the Great Depression, and was one of the factors leading to the recall of the final Conservative cabinet before the Saquaremas collapsed.

In 1949, industrial workers went on strike against some economic policies of the Domingos Vellasco administration, which might have contributed to the PSB's loss the following election.

Following the first oil shock, the factory workers which had been one of Brizolism's main bases of support went on strike, protesting the high cost of living and increasing shortages.

In 2001, teachers and doctors went on strike against the PDC administration of Antônio Britto, demanding wage increases and the rollback of voucher policies. However, his government managed to survive those strikes, and Britto remained in office until 2010.

Since the 1980s, Brazilian unions have been weakened by outsourcing, privatisation and the increasing refusal of major parties to cooperate with them. However, they remain strong in the ABC Paulista due to its high concentration of industries.

Luís Inácio da Silva (1946–) is an elderly retiree from Pernambuco who is a member of the Socialist Party, having espoused social democratic beliefs since the 1970s. However, he has never ran for public office and is now too old to do so.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Brazilian governorships (governors of Brazilian provinces) in 2024.

The governor of São Paulo is João Doria, and the governor of Minas Gerais is Alexandre Kalil.

Alagoas is the only northeastern state to have a PDC governor, namely Rodrigo Cunha, who defeated Paulo Dantas for reelection in 2022.

That year, PSB incumbents lost reelection in Rio Grande do Sul, Espírito Santo, Amazonas and Alagoas.

The last time a third-party candidate won a governorship was in the 1950s, with the right-wing PSD. That's a longer streak than the United States.
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[NotDavidSoslan]

Achievements of the Leonel Brizola premiership (1960–1974)


The Angra nuclear power plant was opened by Emperor Pedro IV and Brizola on 26 January 1971.

Brizola's achievements

• Nationalised energy, transportation and telecommunications;
• Created the Single Healthcare System (abbreviated SUS) as Brazil's universal healthcare system;
• Publicly condemned apartheid at the United Nations;
• Supported Patrice Lumumba during the Congo Crisis;
• Expanded Brazil's EEZ to 350 nautical miles;
• Opened the first Brazilian nuclear power plant, seven years after testing a nuclear weapon;
• Defended liberal democracy in Latin America from communist and military threats;
• Created a capital gains tax;
- Amended the constitution to allow the illiterate and NCOs to vote;
• Developed a Brazilian airliner by Embraer, which remained in service until 2014;
• Successfully implemented a land reform program that redistributed unused land, fulfilling a longstanding promise of the PSB;
• Required large businesses to provide paid maternity leave;
• Increased the regulation of banks and other financial institutions;
• Supported the democratically elected government of Fidel Castro, including during the coup that overthrew him;
• Condemned United States intervention in the Vietnam War;
• Called for the decolonization of Portuguese Africa;
• Created a free school meals program for impoverished students that now applies to all students nationwide;
• Estabilished the National Housing Bank;
• Imposed the first anti-deforestation laws and pollution controls in Brazilian history;
• Increased enforcement of the law against racial discrimination implemented by his predecessor Afonso Arinos;
• Was ambivalent towards the 1960s counterculture, neither repressing nor supporting it;
• Created MOBRAL, a national literacy program.

Brizola is considered to be one of the most controversial yet influential leaders in Brazilian history. While his emphasis on economic nationalism was abandoned after his sacking, several of his institutions, such as SUS, an independent nuclear capability, and the end of latifundia, still influence Brazil as of 2024.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Luís Carlos Prestes (1898–1990) was the Brazilian Minister of War between 1945 and 1946 and the Minister of Defense between 1946 and 1950.


He graduated secondary school from the Military College and Military Engeneering in December 1919, working as a railway engineer and Lieutenant in the Sapopemba Railway Company, subsequently working as a military instructor until late 1921, when he returned to the company.

Prestes was promoted to captain in 1924, major in 1931, lieutenant-colonel in 1935, and colonel in 1937. During that time, he served as a military attache in France (1935) and the United States (1939).

During World War II, Prestes played an important role in the preparations for the occupation of French Guyana, which was later transferred to the Free French, later being deployed to the Sicilian and Italian campaigns, proving to be an effective military commander in both of them, and returning home as a war hero. Thus, he was an obvious choice for Domingos Vellasco, the new Socialist Prime Minister, who made Prestes his original (and Brazil's last) Minister of War in June 1945.

On 14 March 1946, the Ministry of War was renamed Ministry of Defense. But Prestes' tenure did not only see a name change, but also the development of a military policy that sought self-sufficiency in terms of equipment and logistics, as well as a focus on national sovereignty, keeping friendly relations with both the United States and Soviet Union (even though Vellasco's strong anti-Stalinism made Brazil closer to the Western Bloc, repeatedly vetoing pro-Soviet UNSC resolutions). Prestes' ministry began work on indigenous jet fighters and medium tanks, as well as nuclear energy and uranium mining.

He left office in 1950, after Vellasco lost reelection, unsuccessfully running for the Senate for Rio Grande do Sul in 1955, and retiring from public life afterwards with his wife Maria. Prestes died in 1990, and was buried in the Porto Alegre cemetery.