Ave Império: What if Brazil reformed in 1889?

[NotDavidSoslan]

Brazil estabilished a nuclear program in 1951, under Afonso Arinos and his independent foreign policy, and expanded it in 1956 by purchasing a thorium nuclear reactor as part of Atoms for Peace.

Uranium mining had actively began earlier in the decade, with a state-owned business being estabilished in order to extract it.

Under Brizola's premiership, the nuclear program became one of the government's main priorities, receiving many cantos de réis per year, and it was broadly supported by PTB and moderates in PDC, while facing opposition from PSD and conservative Christian Democrats.

In January 1965, the nuclear bomb was dropped at the test site by a Embraer B-57 Tucano (licensed version of the English Electric Canberra) bomber, a variant of which was developed to carry nuclear weapons.

The test caused alarm in Washington, where it was seen as part of the PSB's nationalist plans, a way to distance Brazil from the United States. The Johnson administration condemned the test and immediately launched a campaign against Brazilian influence in Latin America.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Portugal was in also in a postwar economic crisis, in spite of having remained neutral (although they let the Royal Navy base itself in the Azores) in WWI.

Even after the republic was proclaimed, soon emerged several divergences between the masonic liberals led by Machado Santos and the right-wingers led by Sidônio Pais, who soon left the PRP in order to found the National Republican Party.

In 1925, the Portuguese Army under Óscar Carmona overthrew the PRP government in a military coup, forming an authoritarian provisional government until handling over power to Sidônio Pais, who implemented a fascist-inspired dictatorship that would last until his death in 1934, whereupon economist and financial czar during the Great Depression Antônio de Oliveira Salazar succeeded him.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Other stuff done by Brizola included:.

- Merging the province of Guanabara into Rio de Janeiro;
- Developing close ties with newly independent African nations, including socialist Ghana and Guinea;
- Applying diplomatic pressure on Portugal to give independence to its colonies, without success.
- Massive literacy programs;
- The creation of the National Housing Bank, Anvisa and Embrapa;
- Introducing farm subsidies into the country, in order to modernize agriculture;
- Providing subsidies to Brazilian automobile companies, in order to allow them to compete with foreign manufacturers such as Volkswagen.

The Christian Democrats ran a campaign based on attracting moderate Socialists who opposed Brizolist radicalism. The PDC focused on their support for the social function of property, cooperation between the government and private enterprise, and anti-communism, and this strategy was partly successful, as gerrymandering meant the PDC only lost ten seats and, in terms of the popular vote, they only did nearly 4% worse than they had in 1960.

The election also marked the end of the PSD as a significant political force, only winning 15 seats and almost 8% of the popular vote. The party would formally merge with the PDC in 1969, thus consolidating the Brazilian two-party system until the 2000s.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Brizola promised to pass conservation measures and pollution control during his second term, in order to deal with deforestation and stories of seriously deformed children from pollution.

(It should be 15 March 1970)

The PDC also won a considerable share of the moderate Socialist vote, and overperformed with the middle class electorate.

The far-right Popular Representation Party of Plínio Salgado elected four MPs and won 6% of the vote. However, the party would quickly collapse after Salgado's death in 1974, especially as former Integralists began to die off. The Communist Party of Carlos Lacerda, which had been legalised in 1966, won two seats.

The 1974 general election would be won by Petrônio Portella's PDC, defeating the PSB led by Aarão Steinbruch and the Liberal Party of Ulysses Guimarães.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

The PSB distanced itself from Brizola, instead running on a generic left-wing platform of social justice, national sovereignty and an independent foreign policy, while the PDC and PL promised to undo some aspects of Brizolism.

Portela governed as a moderate Christian Democrat who lowered taxes, recognized the new Portuguese government, tried to ensure the newly-independent Portuguese colonies were capitalist liberal democracies, and privatised inefficient industries nationalised by Brizola, but widespread infighting between moderates in the PDC, led by Portela, and conservatives, led by São Paulo Mayor Paulo Maluf, dominated his tenure; however, Portela had the support of the party leadership, and as such, he defeated Maluf in the November 1974 leadership election, only for the PDC to be defeated by Steinbruch's PSB in the March 1975 general election.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Portela was an uncharismatic and uninspiring leader who was unpopular with the increasingly conservative PDC base, and he had failed to fix the Brazilian economy, so the PSB won another general election.

The Socialists, again led by Steinbruch, ran on a centre-left platform that sought to move beyond Brizola's economic nationalism, and won three seats over the threshold required for a majority. The renewed Liberals also made small gains, which would continue in 1980, when the PDC under Paulo Maluf, who had campaigned on neoliberal policies, defeated the PSB by a landslide.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

This was the second in a series of neoliberal election victories in major countries, beginning with the British Conservatives the previous year and followed by Ronald Reagan the following month.

The Socialist Party's campaign promised higher taxes and government spending, in addition to expanded social programs, in order to recover the economy, a proposal Maluf and his campaigners successfully attacked.

The Liberal Party supported the traditional republican idea of a referendum on the form of government, as well as the widespread use of referendums and a flat tax. It had wide appeal among younger voters, who have always been less supportive of the monarchy and drawn to third parties, and won the majority of the vote in Acre and Espírito Santo.

During his premiership, Maluf carried out major deregulation, tax cut and privatisation initiatives that led to high economic growth during the 1980s, but at the cost of increased poverty and income inequality. He also repealed Aarão Steinbruch's reductions in military spending, and brought the War on Drugs to Brazil. The Christian Democrats won the 1985 election, winning over 300 seats in what was considered to be a referendum on Maluf's policies.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Brazilian influence in Latin America had served as a bulwark against dictatorship. In 1970, among the few Latin American countries to not be democratic were Haiti, Guatemala and Argentina, the latter of which had a rivalry with Brazil.

Fidel Castro, an ally of the nationalist and Pan-American Brizola administration, was elected President in 1967, by challenging the Orthodox Party, which he had left in 1961, and promising to end organized crime and bring a national path to socialism. While poverty and crime had been widely reduced by previous Orthodox administrations, they were still common by 1970, and even many in the middle class felt Orthodox administrations had failed to end corruption as they promised.

A few months before the coup, Brazil agreed to provide the Cuban military with $30 million in small arms and artillery; however, they could not be delivered due to Castro's overthrow.

Chaviano protected organized crime and prostitution in exchange for political support, but followed a Keynesian economic policy and did not distance Cuba from Brazil. After the 1979 oil shock, he cracked down on the Mafia, outlawed gambling and prostitution, and sought the support of anti-communist Catholic clergy. He died in 1992.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

The Greens ran on a platform of opposing nuclear testing, deregulation and deforestation, while calling for neutrality in foreign affairs and reducing military spending to a minimum.

They also tried to attract former Brizolist voters, being somewhat successful.

The PSB campaigned on repealing Maluf's tax cuts for the wealthy and opposing privatisation. They were in favor of an independent foreign policy and increasing funding for SUS, an universal healthcare system created by the third Brizola cabinet in 1971, and were successful in getting the low-income vote out.

The PDC won over high-income households by an overwhelming margin, as well as most of the middle class, but suffered losses among the poor in major cities, due to Maluf being a neoliberal.

During his second term, Maluf would struggle with accusations of corruption, a growing national debt, and a perceived failure to reduce poverty, but conservative Pedro IV refused to disband Parliament and schedule new elections.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

The Green Party lost six seats and a similar share of the vote during the election, as Covas made environmental issues, such as deforestation, a major part of the PSB campaign.

Previously, the fact Pedro IV refused to disband Parliament and schedule new elections after there was evidence Maluf did corruption dealt serious damage for the monarchy's image, and for the first time in exactly 100 years, an increasing amount of Brazilians called for a change in the form of government. However, in a referendum held in 1992, 65% of voters opposed abolishing the monarchy.

PSB later won the 1995 election by a slightly larger margin than expected, as the defeat of the "Yes" option in the referendum led many to expect the monarchist PDC to return to power. However, the strong economy of the 1990s and absence of corruption scandal allowed the Socialists to win reelection.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

FAPLA was completely wiped out by 1979 as FNLA and UNITA fought a brutal civil war over control of Angola.

In 1981, Brazilian President of the Council of Ministers Paulo Maluf launched a military intervention in Angola in order to defeat the Soviet-backed UNITA; the Warsaw Pact, with the exception of Romania, switched sides in the war after the MPLA ceased to be a factor.

The Brazilian intervention was successful, and, in 1987, UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi surrendered. However, even Holden Roberto's rule proved to be short-lived, as the end of the Cold War in 1991 caused him to schedule free and fair elections, which he won. Accusations of electoral fraud led to an UNITA low-level insurgency, which only ended in 2013, several years after Roberto died.

In 2018, UNITA, a nominally centre-left party, won its first-ever presidential election, and has remained in power since.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

During his premiership, Covas created social programs such as Bolsa Escola, Minha Casa Minha Vida, and Fome Zero, which contributed to a reduction in poverty and permanently realigned the Northeast towards PSB.

The Green Party, and smaller left-wing parties, opposed this approach, arguing instead for the reversion of privatisation, and, in the case of the Greens, the adoption of an environmentalist economic order.

This was the first election after the creation of Tocantins, which was split from Goiás in 1993, after decades of activism by inhabitants of northern Goiás. The creation of a new province led to the first redistricting since the General Assembly was enlarged for the final time in the 1960s.

In 1999, the Russian Federation* defaulted on its debt, and since the IMF feared Brazil would also do so, the country entered an economic recession, which led to Pedro IV dissolving Parliament and scheduling new elections for the first time in two decades. The new general election was won by the Christian Democrats, who subsequently held the premiership until 2010.

* = Alexei Kosygin was the leader of the Soviet Union from Khrushchev's death in 1971 to his own in 1980, being succeeded by Andropov, then Chernenko, and then finally Gorbachev. Nothing much changes in the USSR or its successor states.



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[NotDavidSoslan]

The Liberal Party suffered considerable losses, unlike previous snap elections, as it had supported the centrist Covas cabinets.

(It should say "1999 snap election", not "2000 snap election")

Marina Silva planned to become the first black and female President of the Council of Ministers in Brazilian history, and the Green Party's third-place finish gave her supporters hope.

The Socialists only won pluralities of the popular vote in the Northeast, which had realigned towards the left under Maluf and Covas, and in the provinces of Amazonas and Amapá, where they had an advantage in voter registration; nevertheless, they elected several Green MPs due to indigenous peoples supporting the party.

In 2000, Britto's Christian Democrats won with a reduced majority, as the economy had not recovered yet, and the Socialists chose a party leader slightly to the left of Covas, Eduardo Suplicy.



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[NotDavidSoslan]

The Liberal Party continued to decline and get replaced as Brazil's strongest third party by the Green Party; they were completely pushed out of the General Assembly in the 2010 election, but continue to exist and contest general elections to this day.

The Christian Democratic administration opposed the Kyoto Protocol, saying it did not apply to Global South polluters like China and India.

The Brazilian Labour Party, a Brizolist party to the left of the Socialists but not as environmentalist, elected one MP, Anthony Garotinho of Campos dos Goytacazes.

Starting in 2003, the economy of Brazil began to recover, allowing the Christian Democrats to make gains in the 2005 election.



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[NotDavidSoslan]

UNITA was a consistently Maoist organisation during the civil war, refusing to abandon communism until 1989. (The belligerents column has two formatting errors)

The FNLA, by contrast, ran a right-wing and pro-Western regime, supportive of the wealth and power of traditional lords and concentrating the most important posts in the Bakongo ethnicity.

During the intervention, the Brazilian Imperial Air Force employed large-scale tactical bombing of UNITA positions, and the entire Brazilian strategy was based on counterinsurgency warfare, including "hearts and minds", such as the provision of services and infrastructure to poor villages.

While Brazil had its own indigenous tanks which had been in service since the 1950s, they were not used in Angola, as Brazil was simply fighting an insurgency and their vulnerability to RPGs was recognized. Instead, the heavy weapons used were artillery and APCs.

From 1985 onwards, the Brazilian–FNLA offensive gained momentum, especially as Holden Roberto took cosmetic steps to open his authoritarian regime, and UNITA's communist ideology lost appeal. This contributed to Savimbi's surrender and the transformation of UNITA into a centre-left party.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

UNITA was a consistently Maoist organisation during the civil war, refusing to abandon communism until 1989. (The belligerents column has two formatting errors)

The FNLA, by contrast, ran a right-wing and pro-Western regime, supportive of the wealth and power of traditional lords and concentrating the most important posts in the Bakongo ethnicity.

During the intervention, the Brazilian Imperial Air Force employed large-scale tactical bombing of UNITA positions, and the entire Brazilian strategy was based on counterinsurgency warfare, including "hearts and minds", such as the provision of services and infrastructure to poor villages.

While Brazil had its own indigenous tanks which had been in service since the 1950s, they were not used in Angola, as Brazil was simply fighting an insurgency and their vulnerability to RPGs was recognized. Instead, the heavy weapons used were artillery and APCs.

From 1985 onwards, the Brazilian–FNLA offensive gained momentum, especially as Holden Roberto took cosmetic steps to open his authoritarian regime, and UNITA's communist ideology lost appeal. This contributed to Savimbi's surrender and the transformation of UNITA into a centre-left party.
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I am not satisfied with this wikibox at all. It should be 400,000 dead between 1981 and 1989, and Morocco was not involved.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

In the 1931 Brazilian general election, the Social Nationalist Party (PSN) of authoritarian positivist Francisco Campos won three seats and 132,255 votes, or 1.2%

The PSN, running on a right-wing authoritarian but not completely fascist platform, elected the following MPs:

• Campos, for Dores do Indaiá-MG
• Café Filho, for Natal-RN
• Gustavo Capanema, for Pitangui-MG, which bordered the electoral parish of Dores do Indaiá.

The PSN opposed the leftist administration of João Mangabeira, and bore a striking resemblance to European fascist parties, both in its platform and structure. It also had a paramilitary wing.

The recovery of the Brazilian economy and growth of the far more popular AIB made PSN lose all of its seats in the 1935 election; it only won 32,156 seats and 0.32% of the vote. In 1937, Campos disbanded the party.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Starting in 2003, the economy of Brazil returned to growth. Millions of jobs were created, mostly in the service sector, and the computer and videogames became common in Brazilian homes.

This allowed the Christian Democrats to make gains and remain in power. They won over the overwhelmingly majority of high-income voters, and a plurality of middle-income ones, as well as a plurality of the popular vote in the Northeastern states of Alagoas and Sergipe.

After the election, Marina Silva resigned as the Green leader and was replaced by Eduardo Jorge.

The previous year, Al Gore had defeated John McCain to be reelected as US President, and, in 2010, the poor economy made the Socialists, led by Eduardo Campos, win a majority government.


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[NotDavidSoslan]

Cristina Andreescu (1892–1958) was the First Lady of Romania between 1931 and 1940, as the wife of President Marian Andreescu.

Marian Andreescu met her in Bucharest in 1912 and was immediately smitten, beginning a relationship that resulted in marriage the following year. They had one son, Mihai (1916–1993), who was an important Romanian politician under Ceausescu and arrested after the Christmas Revolution.

Andreescu was a charismatic politician and powerful orator, who tantalized crowds, especially workers and peasants, with his populist rethoric, and his attempts to unite the Romanian left were largely successful. However, in private, he was very laid back, rarely speaking to his wife and son unless asked, and had apolitical interests such as classical music and football, unsuccessfully trying to qualify Romania for the 1934 and 1938 world cups.

Andreescu's body was incinerated by the Wehrmacht following his death, and his remains have never been found or identified.

During his presidency, Andreescu visited the following countries:

• United Kingdom
• France
• Bulgaria
• Yugoslavia
• Greece
• Turkey
• Belgium

His personal hero was Mircea the Elder.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Cristina Andreescu (1892–1958) was the First Lady of Romania between 1931 and 1940, as the wife of President Marian Andreescu.

Marian Andreescu met her in Bucharest in 1912 and was immediately smitten, beginning a relationship that resulted in marriage the following year. They had one son, Mihai (1916–1993), who was an important Romanian politician under Ceausescu and arrested after the Christmas Revolution.

Andreescu was a charismatic politician and powerful orator, who tantalized crowds, especially workers and peasants, with his populist rethoric, and his attempts to unite the Romanian left were largely successful. However, in private, he was very laid back, rarely speaking to his wife and son unless asked, and had apolitical interests such as classical music and football, unsuccessfully trying to qualify Romania for the 1934 and 1938 world cups.

Andreescu's body was incinerated by the Wehrmacht following his death, and his remains have never been found or identified.

During his presidency, Andreescu visited the following countries:

• United Kingdom
• France
• Bulgaria
• Yugoslavia
• Greece
• Turkey
• Belgium

His personal hero was Mircea the Elder.
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Wrong timeline