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Thandean Representation: The 2015 and 2019 Canadian Federal Elections Under Another Voting System

Caprice said:
Thank you very much! I found the map on Google Images by Googling something like "canada riding blank map".
Click to expand...
It is occasionally made known to me that I overthink things.

UNITED COUNTIES
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

2015 Members Elected
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell – Francis Drouin
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes – Gord Brown
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry – Guy Lauzon

THANDEREP
UNITED COUNTIES 1. Francis Drouin 2. Guy Lauzon 3. Mary Jean McFall

2019 Members Elected
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell – Francis Drouin
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes – Michael Barrett
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry – Eric Duncan

THANDEREP
UNITED COUNTIES 1. Eric Duncan 2. Francis Drouin 3. Michael Barrett
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The eastern tip of Ontario; the relatively less dense areas south and east of Ottawa. Two safe Conservative seats and one safe Liberal one (candidates often win absolute majorities of the vote even when their party loses the election) combine to make one safe seat each and a marginal third, with the Liberal surge in 2015 being just enough to nab the additional seat by half a percentage point.
 
VoiceInTheWilderness said:
Do folks want me to calculate the popular vote percentages for these tables?

Province of Quebec
2015First-past-the-postTHANDEREP
Liberal4033
Conservative129
New Democrat1621
Bloquiste1015
Green00
Other00

2019First-past-the-postTHANDEREP
Liberal3538
Conservative108
New Democrat12
Bloquiste3230
Green00
Other00


Nationwide So Far
2015First-past-the-postTHANDEREP
Liberal7257
Conservative1214
New Democrat1624
Bloquiste1015
Green00
Other00

2019First-past-the-postTHANDEREP
Liberal6156
Conservative1417
New Democrat24
Bloquiste3230
Green13
Other00
Click to expand...
Great work (and @Caprice as well for the map). Yes, popular vote figures would be interesting.
 
OTTAWA EAST
Orléans
Ottawa South
Ottawa—Vanier

2015 Members Elected
Orléans – Andrew Leslie
Ottawa South – David McGuinty
Ottawa—Vanier – Mauril Bélanger

THANDEREP
OTTAWA EAST 1. Andrew Leslie 2. David McGuinty 3. Royal Galipeau

2019 Members Elected
Orléans – Marie-France Lalonde
Ottawa South – David McGuinty
Ottawa—Vanier – Mona Fortier

THANDEREP
OTTAWA EAST 1. Marie-France Lalonde 2. David McGuinty 3. David Bertschi
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All of these ridings have exclusively returned Liberals since their creation - except that Orléans returned a Conservative for the three Harper wins. The Conservatives have just as dominant a hold on second place in these ridings, so they consistently nab the last seat.
 
OTTAWA WEST
Nepean
Ottawa Centre
Ottawa West—Nepean

2015 Members Elected
Nepean – Chandra Arya
Ottawa Centre – Catherine McKenna
Ottawa West—Nepean – Anita Vandenbeld

THANDEREP
OTTAWA WEST 1. Anita Vandenbeld 2. Andy Wang 3. Chandra Arya

2019 Members Elected
Nepean – Chandra Arya
Ottawa Centre – Catherine McKenna
Ottawa West—Nepean – Anita Vandenbeld

THANDEREP
OTTAWA WEST 1. Catherine McKenna 2. Brian St. Louis 3. Chandra Arya
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The western part of Ottawa is more marginal than the east; Centre sometimes votes New Democrat and the others Conservative. Overall the New Democrats are about five percentage points from supplanting the second Liberal.

Despite running the same candidates both times, the order of the Liberal "list" flipped entirely around between elections. Catherine McKenna is the only minister of the bunch, and yet not until she enters Cabinet does she place high enough to get into Parliament in the first place!
 
KINGSTON & CARLETON
Carleton
Kanata—Carleton
Kingston and the Islands
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

2015 Members Elected
Carleton – Pierre Poilievre
Kanata—Carleton – Karen McCrimmon
Kingston and the Islands – Mark Gerretsen
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston – Scott Reid

THANDEREP
KINGSTON & CARLETON 1. Mark Gerretsen 2. Pierre Poilievre 3. Karen McCrimmon 4. Scott Reid

2019 Members Elected
Carleton – Pierre Poilievre
Kanata—Carleton – Karen McCrimmon
Kingston and the Islands – Mark Gerretsen
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston – Scott Reid

THANDEREP
KINGSTON & CARLETON 1. Mark Gerretsen 2. Pierre Poilievre 3. Karen McCrimmon 4. Scott Reid
Click to expand...

♫ Oh the Wolfe Island Ferry is a very nice ferry,
It's a very nice ferry, it's the Wolfe Island Ferry...♫♪

I had 2 two-seaters in far-western Ontario, one in Ottawa, and one in Greater Toronto. This amalgamation - the two ridings of including bits of Kingston proper, and the semidetached western edge of Ottawa - least offended me.

Exactly the same results no matter which way you slice it. I think under TOPVOTE the New Democrats would snatch McCrimmon's seat by two hundred votes or so in 2019.
 
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NIPISSING & HASTINGS
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Nipissing—Timiskaming
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

2015 Members Elected
Hastings—Lennox and Addington – Mike Bossio
Nipissing—Timiskaming – Anthony Rota
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke – Cheryl Gallant

THANDEREP
NIPISSING & HASTINGS 1. Anthony Rota 2. Cheryl Gallant 3. Mike Bossio

2019 Members Elected
Hastings—Lennox and Addington – Derek Sloan
Nipissing—Timiskaming – Anthony Rota
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke – Cheryl Gallant

THANDEREP 1. Cheryl Gallant 2. Mike Bossio 3. Derek Sloan
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This riding stretches from the extremely rural (Nipissing—Timiskaming is noted as one of the most densely populated areas of Northern Ontario) to the merely rural shore of Lake Ontario. In 2019 Derek Sloan nearly gets nipped by Anthony Rota; Cheryl Gallant's enormous vote drags him over the line. What a match made in heaven.
 
PETERBOROUGH
Bay of Quinte
Northumberland—Peterborough South
Peterborough—Kawartha

2015 Members Elected
Bay of Quinte – Neil Ellis
Northumberland—Peterborough South – Kim Rudd
Peterborough—Kawartha – Maryam Monsef

THANDEREP
PETERBOROUGH 1. Neil Ellis 2. Adam Moulton 3. Maryam Monsef

2019 Members Elected
Bay of Quinte – Neil Ellis
Northumberland—Peterborough South – Philip Lawrence
Peterborough—Kawartha – Maryam Monsef

THANDEREP
PETERBOROUGH 1. Maryam Monsef 2. Philip Lawrence 3. Kim Rudd
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Peterborough—Kawartha is reputed to be one of the nation's best bellwethers. We've paired it here with a good chunk of the Lake Ontario shoreline, almost everything between Toronto's suburban edge and Kingston.

The Liberal sweep in 2015 is revealed to be hollow by THANDEREP, and in 2019 about 80% of the margin washes away, though not quite enough to flip a seat.
 
DURHAM RURAL & HALIBURTON
Durham
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Pickering—Uxbridge

2015 Members Elected
Durham – Erin O'Toole
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock – Jamie Schmale
Pickering—Uxbridge – Jennifer O'Connell

THANDEREP
DURHAM RURAL & HALIBURTON 1. Erin O'Toole 2. Jennifer O'Connell 3. Jamie Schmale

2019 Members Elected
Durham – Erin O'Toole
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock – Jamie Schmale
Pickering—Uxbridge – Jennifer O'Connell

THANDEREP
DURHAM RURAL & HALIBURTON 1. Jamie Schmale 2. Jennifer O'Connell 3. Erin O'Toole
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Haliburton &c., as a region of cottage country on the northern fringe of what can be considered "Southern Ontario", is awkward at best as a tack-on to the five Durham Region ridings. A previous pass had it joined with Nipissing! It's solidly Conservative, so its MP joins Erin "The Only Conservative MP in Greater Toronto" O'Toole and Jennifer "Also a Greater Toronto MP, So It Follows That I Am Not Conservative" O'Connell as FPTP MPs also returned under THANDEREP. O'Toole's 2019 drop down the party list is mostly a function of the Liberal vote collapsing in Haliburton, allowing Schmale to run up the score.
 
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DURHAM URBAN
Ajax
Oshawa
Whitby

2015 Members Elected
Ajax – Mark Holland
Oshawa – Colin Carrie
Whitby – Celina Caesar-Chavannes

THANDEREP
DURHAM URBAN 1. Mark Holland 2. Pat Perkins 3. Celina Caesar-Chavannes

2019 Members Elected
Ajax – Mark Holland
Oshawa – Colin Carrie
Whitby – Ryan Turnbull

THANDEREP
DURHAM URBAN 1. Mark Holland 2. Todd McCarthy 3. Ryan Turnbull
Click to expand...

The three towns of Durham Region to get their own riding - Pickering is forced to share. Whitby actually has a stronger Conservative vote in absolute terms than Oshawa, so their runner-up always gets the seat and poor Colin Carrie never gets a look in.
 
Eastern Ontario

2015
Liberals 17/25 - 46.4% popular vote, 68.0% seats
Conservatives 8/25 - 36.8% popular vote, 32.0% seats
New Democrats 0/25 - 13.9% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/25 - 2.9% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 15/25 - 46.4% popular vote, 60.0% seats
Conservatives 10/25 - 36.8% popular vote, 40.0% seats
New Democrats 0/25 - 13.9% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/25 - 2.9% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 15/25 - 40.2% popular vote, 60.0% seats
Conservatives 10/25 - 35.3% popular vote, 40.0% seats
New Democrats 0/25 - 16.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/25 - 6.8% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 13/25 - 40.2% popular vote, 52.0% seats
Conservatives 12/25 - 35.3% popular vote, 48.0% seats
New Democrats 0/25 - 16.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/25 - 6.8% popular vote, 0.0% seats

This is an extremely 2-party region of the country - the NDP haven't won a seat in this region since a 1990 by-election - so THANDEREP just takes the majoritarian advantage down a peg. Both seat-winning parties overperform their vote-share, but it's the leading Liberals that get allocated most of the New Democrats' and Greens' "share" of seats.

thanderep southeastern ontario v2 2015.pngthanderep southeastern ontario v2 2019.png



toronto is next, God help me
 
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MARKHAM
Markham—Stouffville
Markham—Thornhill
Markham—Unionville

2015 Election Results
Markham—Stouffville – Jane Philpott
Markham—Thornhill – John McCallum
Markham—Unionville – Bob Saroya

THANDEREP
MARKHAM 1. Jane Philpott 2. Paul Calandra 3. John McCallum

2019 Members Elected
Markham—Stouffville – Helena Jaczek
Markham—Thornhill – Mary Ng
Markham—Unionville – Bob Saroya

THANDEREP
MARKHAM 1. Helena Jaczek 2. Bob Saroya 3. Mary Ng
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There was a lot of churn and not a lot of motion in Liberal-land here. Jane Philpott's exit from the Cabinet and the Liberal caucus meant she had to run as an independent in 2019, netting a creditable third place with more votes than the New Democrats, Greens, and PPC combined twice over. Still, that wasn't enough even to knock her replacement off the top of the Liberal list. Veteran parliamentarian John McCallum was appointed ambassador to China, before being fired for wading into the Meng Wanzhou case.
 
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NEWMARKET & RICHMOND HILL
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Newmarket—Aurora
Richmond Hill

2015 Members Elected
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill – Leona Alleslev
Newmarket—Aurora – Kyle Peterson
Richmond Hill – Majid Jowhari

THANDEREP
NEWMARKET & RICHMOND HILL 1. Kyle Peterson 2. Lois Brown 3. Leona Alleslev

2019 Members Elected
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill – Leona Alleslev
Newmarket—Aurora – Tony Van Byrnen
Richmond Hill – Majid Jowhari

THANDEREP
NEWMARKET & RICHMOND HILL 1. Tony Van Byrnen 2. Leona Alleslev 3. Leah Taylor Roy
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I haven't made an error with the colours; Leona Alleslev crossed the floor to sit as a Conservative, and after the 2019 election was briefly appointed Deputy Leader as part of Andrew Scheer's assorted flailings before his resignation.
 
VAUGHAN & THORNHILL
King—Vaughan
Thornhill
Vaughan—Woodbridge

2015 Members Elected
King—Vaughan – Deb Schulte
Thornhill – Peter Kent
Vaughan—Woodbridge – Francesco Sorbara

THANDEREP
VAUGHAN & THORNHILL 1. Peter Kent 2. Deb Schulte 3. Konstantin Toubis

2019 Members Elected
King—Vaughan – Deb Schulte
Thornhill – Peter Kent
Vaughan—Woodbridge – Francesco Sorbara

THANDEREP
VAUGHAN & THORNHILL 1. Peter Kent 2. Deb Schulte 3. Anna Roberts
Click to expand...

The swing to Conservative under THANDEREP is almost entirely down to Thornhill's big margins, or, perhaps, Peter Kent's. The addition of a third riding in the redistricting means that chequered minister Julian Fantino is still excluded from Parliament, behind the newcomer Toubis.
 
York Regional Municipality (excluding York—Simcoe)

2015
Liberals 7/9 - 46.0% popular vote, 77.8% seats
Conservatives 2/9 - 44.8% popular vote, 22.2% seats
New Democrats 0/9 - 7.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/9 - 1.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 5/9 - 46.0% popular vote, 55.6% seats
Conservatives 4/9 - 44.8% popular vote, 44.4% seats
New Democrats 0/9 - 7.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/9 - 1.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 6/9 - 43.4% popular vote, 66.7% seats
Conservatives 3/9 - 41.6% popular vote, 33.3% seats
New Democrats 0/9 - 7.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/9 - 3.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 5/9 - 43.4% popular vote, 55.6% seats
Conservatives 4/9 - 41.6% popular vote, 44.4% seats
New Democrats 0/9 - 7.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/9 - 3.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Jane Philpott - 2.7% popular vote

An astoundingly inelastic region.


thanderep york 2015.pngthanderep york 2019.png
 
SCARBOROUGH EAST
Scarborough—Guildwood
Scarborough North
Scarborough—Rouge Park

2015 Members Elected
Scarborough—Guildwood – John McKay
Scarborough North – Shaun Chen
Scarborough—Rouge Park – Gary Anandasangaree

THANDEREP
SCARBOROUGH EAST 1. Gary Anandasangaree 2. John McKay 3. Leslyn Lewis

2019 Members Elected
Scarborough—Guildwood – John McKay
Scarborough North – Shaun Chen
Scarborough—Rouge Park – Gary Anandasangaree

THANDEREP
SCARBOROUGH EAST 1. Gary Anandasangaree 2. John McKay 3. David Kong
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Now we're working westward along the waterfront (well, mostly, it gets denser around downtown). Yes, that Leslyn Lewis gets elected in 2015 under THANDEREP, which changes the 2020 leadership election somewhat, I think. I think O'Toole still comes away with it, though.
 
SCARBOROUGH WEST
Scarborough—Agincourt
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough Southwest

2015 Members Elected
Scarborough—Agincourt – Arnold Chan
Scarborough Centre – Salma Zahid
Scarborough Southwest – Bill Blair

THANDEREP
SCARBOROUGH WEST 1. Bill Blair 2. Bin Chang 3. Salma Zahid

2019 Members Elected
Scarborough—Agincourt – Jean Yip
Scarborough Centre – Salma Zahid
Scarborough Southwest – Bill Blair

THANDEREP
SCARBOROUGH WEST 1. Bill Blair 2. Salma Zahid 3. Sean Hu
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More safe Liberal seats, and that Public Safety minister Paul Wells and Justin Ling write so strongly against. Here we can see the strengthening of the Liberal vote by the way the Conservatives slip to the vulnerable seat in 2019 - though ten thousand votes safe of the third Liberal candidate, and twenty thousand safe of the leading New Democrat. It really is a two-party state out there :/
 
DON VALLEY
Don Valley East
Don Valley North
Don Valley West

2015 Members Elected
Don Valley East – Yasmin Ratansi
Don Valley North – Geng Tan
Don Valley West – Rob Oliphant

THANDEREP
DON VALLEY 1. Rob Oliphant 2. John Carmichael 3. Yasmin Ratansi

2019 Members Elected
Don Valley East – Yasmin Ratansi
Don Valley North – Han Dong
Don Valley West – Rob Oliphant

THANDEREP
DON VALLEY 1. Rob Oliphant 2. Sarah Fischer 3. Yasmin Ratansi
Click to expand...

Frankly I doubt these ridings form a meaningful "natural community", I think I just reached for the shared name. These were Conservative seats in the previous election (well, notionally in the case of Don Valley North), and incumbent John Carmichael preserves his seat under THANDEREP.
 
TORONTO EAST
Beaches—East York
Toronto Centre
Toronto—Danforth

2015 Members Elected
Beaches—East York – Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
Toronto Centre – Bill Morneau
Toronto—Danforth – Julie Dabrusin

THANDEREP
TORONTO EAST 1. Bill Morneau 2. Craig Scott 3. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith

2019 Members Elected
Beaches—East York – Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
Toronto Centre – Bill Morneau
Toronto—Danforth – Julie Dabrusin

THANDEREP
TORONTO EAST 1. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith 2. Bill Morneau 3. Min Sook Lee
Click to expand...

This riding, stretching along the waterfront from downtown to Scarborough, is reasonably good territory for New Democrats - Danforth had been held by both Jack Layton and, once upon a time, a New Democratic Bob Rae, and Beaches—East York was also won by a New Democrat in 2011 before being lost to Ottawa's Least Predictable MP. THANDEREP recognizes the strong minority vote with a seat (albeit sliding from second to third in 2019).

@Callan will be pleased that the casualty of the NDP vote is the rather useless Julie Dabrusin.
 
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DOWNTOWN TORONTO & ST. PAUL'S
Spadina—Fort York
Toronto—St. Paul's
University—Rosedale

2015 Members Elected
Spadina—Fort York – Adam Vaughan
Toronto—St. Paul's – Carolyn Bennett
University—Rosedale – Chrystia Freeland

THANDEREP
DOWNTOWN TORONTO & ST. PAUL'S 1. Carolyn Bennett 2. Adam Vaughan 3. Jennifer Hollett

2019 Members Elected
Spadina—Fort York – Adam Vaughan
Toronto—St. Paul's – Carolyn Bennett
University—Rosedale – Chrystia Freeland

THANDEREP
DOWNTOWN TORONTO & ST. PAUL'S 1. Adam Vaughan 2. Carolyn Bennett 3. Melissa Jean-Baptiste Vajda
Click to expand...

More NDP-friendly territory - Jack Layton's widow Olivia Chow held Spadina—Fort York until 2014 when she stepped down to lose a mayoral election, and University—Rosedale was created out of New Democrat-leaning bits of Spadina and Centre. Chrystia Freeland is the casualty of the NDP's minority vote here, disastrously for my friend Darren who thinks the Liberals are fine but Trudeau should really get out of the way of our glorious neoliberal Chrystia Freeland-shaped future. Indeed, it is her opponent that tops the New Democrat list both years and gets to sit in Parliament.
 
TORONTO WEST
Davenport
Parkdale—High Park
York South—Weston

2015 Members Elected
Davenport – Julie Dzerowicz
Parkdale—High Park – Arif Virani
York South—Weston – Ahmed Hussen

THANDEREP
TORONTO WEST 1. Arif Virani 2. Peggy Nash 3. Julie Dzerowicz

2019 Members Elected
Davenport – Julie Dzerowicz
Parkdale—High Park – Arif Virani
York South—Weston – Ahmed Hussen

THANDEREP
TORONTO WEST 1. Arif Virani 2. Andrew Cash 3. Ahmed Hussen
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The third and last seat the NDP gain in Toronto under THANDEREP. Both Nash and Cash were 2011 rookies, but Cash stuck around after his defeat and his sizable personal vote let him succeed Nash in the hypothetical New Democrat seat. (This is slightly unfair to Nash, who had previously served as President of the NDP and has done her service.)

Apparently Cash was in a punk band with Timmins—James Bay MP Charlie Angus?
 
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