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Thandean Representation: The 2015 and 2019 Canadian Federal Elections Under Another Voting System
- Thread starter VoiceInTheWilderness
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VoiceInTheWilderness
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she's beautiful
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You seem to have transposed a Liberal for the 2019 Avalon Conservative in the last couple of graphics.
VoiceInTheWilderness
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Ah, bugger. I've fixed it now. Thanks for catching that, and my apologies to Caprice that my mistake infected his graphic.
The Quebec region of Bas-Saint-Laurent corresponds nicely with three ridings; too bad there weren't any other neighbours with which to pair Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine. It ends up not really distorting anything, as Diane Lebouthillier continues to be returned alongside three Bas-Saint-Laurent candidates anyhow.
Going into the 2015 election, the three Bas-Saint-Laurent ridings were all New Democrats, and Gaspésie was held by an exile from one of the Bloc's numerous squabbles and sniping after the 2011 disaster. Support for the New Democrats has steadily trended downward since, as in the rest of the country. Bas-Saint-Laurent is a pretty big Bloc breakthrough - losing the regionwide popular vote to both the NDP and Liberals by twenty thousand votes in 2015, before winning it four years later by the same margin over the Liberals; they were nearly fifty thousand votes clear of the NDP.
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VoiceInTheWilderness
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I had to do one cross-river constituency to make the numbers line up, and it makes most sense here; Lévis sits just across the river from Québec City, and I've added the seat just over the bridge. Here the resurgent Bloc managed to nibble away a Conservative seat in 2019, although all the national parties* shed votes compared to 2015. Lightbound was a 2015 rookie, taking over from - who else? - the NDP, but the south shore ridings of Lévis have been Conservative - and indeed, held by Blaney and Gourde - since 2006.
*Yes, yes, the People's Party. What about them?
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VoiceInTheWilderness
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The longest name I've come up with so far, but not necessarily the ugliest; stay tuned. Mad Max Land looks like another rural Conservative heartland, but that's partly the era we're looking at; Richmond-Arthabaska had been a reliable Bloc seat until 2015. As People's Party leader in 2019, Maxime Bernier performed better than any two Liberal candidates put together, and better than the New Democrats and Greens combined, but disastrous performances by his party-mates mean he'd only win a hypothetical seventh seat.
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VoiceInTheWilderness
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These ridings have strong nationalist tendencies, albeit the Liberals have managed to establish a hold on Québec starting in 2015 when they turfed out Papillon. In 2015 the vote split four ways, with the leading Conservatives only having half-again the votes of the fourth-place Bloc. The NDP collapse in 2019 lets the remaining three dominant parties quietly take a seat each, with Desbiens edging out veteran MP Christiane Gagnon for the Bloc's seat as the only drama of the night.
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VoiceInTheWilderness
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Three ridings that blipped New Democrat in 2011, and have returned Conservatives ever since. The two in Québec City proper have long Conservative histories, though Portneuf has bounced around a lot. Only a few hundred votes kept the Liberals from claiming the third seat in 2019.
VoiceInTheWilderness
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One unintended side effect of this method of re-counting is that two-party seats like Berthier—Maskinongé tend to drown out more evenly contested ones like Trois-Rivières, where strong third parties can scupper an individual's chances of topping their party's "list".
Also, despite his seniority in our Cabinet, I am stubbornly incapable of picturing François-Philippe Champagne; instead I come up with Hal Cruttenden.
VoiceInTheWilderness
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This seat stretches along the US border to keep the groupings contiguous. The biggest drama in 2015 is again intra-party, as Bouchard only tops the Bloc list by a hundred and sixty-two votes. (The Conservative list is also hard-fought, but as they secure no seats nobody cares). 2019 defies by ability to say anything interesting about it.
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VoiceInTheWilderness
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I genuinely can't tell if the names are getting better or Quebec is getting to me. These three seats make a nice round shape, but Quebec regions do not map at all well even to the existing First-Past-the-Post ridings, much less to the groupings I had to make. These seats are rural, near neither Montreal nor the United States nor the St Lawrence; they even lie across the Elections Canada map borders!
Another region where neither the New Democrat nor the Bloc hold were as complete as First-Past-the-Post implies, although the New Democrat collapse was the more thorough.
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VoiceInTheWilderness
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Louis Plamondon has held this seat in Parliament continuously since 1984; it's nice that party list shenanigans don't break his run inasmuch as I'd have to pause the rest of these publications and run the rest of the country real fast to determine who the new Dean of the House would have been. The two seats not held by Plamondon were held by New Democrats before 2015, but that only temporarily spares one of their number before THANDEREP catches up to our reality.
VoiceInTheWilderness
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Well, we've reached the end of the rather arbitrary "ridings included in the Elections Canada Map 'Southeastern Quebec'" list, so here's a breakdown:
Southeastern Quebec:
2015
Liberals 9/28 - 29.0% popular vote, 32.1% seats
Conservatives 11/28 - 25.4% popular vote, 39.3% seats
New Democrats 6/28 - 24.6% popular vote, 21.4% seats
Bloquistes 2/28 - 18.6% popular vote, 7.1% seats
Greens 0/28 - 2.4% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 10/28 - 29.0% popular vote, 35.7% seats
Conservatives 7/28 - 25.4% popular vote, 25.0% seats
New Democrats 6/28 - 24.6% popular vote, 21.4% seats
Bloquistes 5/28 - 18.6% popular vote, 17.9% seats
Greens 0/28 - 2.4% popular vote, 0.0% seats
2019
Liberals 7/28 - 25.5% popular vote, 25.0% seats
Conservatives 9/28 - 24.7% popular vote, 32.1% seats
New Democrats 0/28 - 10.3% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Bloquistes 11/28 - 33.4% popular vote, 39.3% seats
Greens 0/28 - 3.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Popular 0/28 - 2.4% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 8/28 - 25.5% popular vote, 28.6% seats
Conservatives 7/28 - 24.7% popular vote, 25.0% seats
New Democrats 1/28 - 10.3% popular vote, 3.6% seats
Bloquistes 12/28 - 33.4% popular vote, 42.9% seats
Greens 0/28 - 3.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Popular 0/28 - 2.4% popular vote, 0.0% seats
I'm only including the People's Party (splitter!) because they placed second in one seat; I do not expect to put them in the list again.
Southeastern Quebec:
2015
Liberals 9/28 - 29.0% popular vote, 32.1% seats
Conservatives 11/28 - 25.4% popular vote, 39.3% seats
New Democrats 6/28 - 24.6% popular vote, 21.4% seats
Bloquistes 2/28 - 18.6% popular vote, 7.1% seats
Greens 0/28 - 2.4% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 10/28 - 29.0% popular vote, 35.7% seats
Conservatives 7/28 - 25.4% popular vote, 25.0% seats
New Democrats 6/28 - 24.6% popular vote, 21.4% seats
Bloquistes 5/28 - 18.6% popular vote, 17.9% seats
Greens 0/28 - 2.4% popular vote, 0.0% seats
2019
Liberals 7/28 - 25.5% popular vote, 25.0% seats
Conservatives 9/28 - 24.7% popular vote, 32.1% seats
New Democrats 0/28 - 10.3% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Bloquistes 11/28 - 33.4% popular vote, 39.3% seats
Greens 0/28 - 3.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Popular 0/28 - 2.4% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 8/28 - 25.5% popular vote, 28.6% seats
Conservatives 7/28 - 24.7% popular vote, 25.0% seats
New Democrats 1/28 - 10.3% popular vote, 3.6% seats
Bloquistes 12/28 - 33.4% popular vote, 42.9% seats
Greens 0/28 - 3.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Popular 0/28 - 2.4% popular vote, 0.0% seats
I'm only including the People's Party (splitter!) because they placed second in one seat; I do not expect to put them in the list again.
VoiceInTheWilderness
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I've been googling enough Quebec electoral information that my Youtube ads are now in French.
This constituency takes in a few suburbs of Montreal on the south shore of the St Lawrence with rural areas stretching just to the American border. The New Democrats actually swept all of Montérégie in 2011. Although La Prairie is a new riding created when Quebec won three more seats in the 2012 redistricting, it had still notionally voted 50.0% New Democrat. My God, I was too young to understand.
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VoiceInTheWilderness
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One thing I've found remarkable as I go around southern Quebec is how common this exact pattern of Liberal-New Democrat-Bloquiste in that order is in 2015, followed by a 2:1 split one way or the other in 2019. Quebec voters really do move around in great waves; I suddenly grasp why leaders focus so much effort on the province in a way I never did before.
Tucked into the triangle between Montreal, Ontario, and the United States, this is another largely rural group of seats which vote lefter than the stereotypes would imply.
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VoiceInTheWilderness
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The most urban and diverse region of Montreal's South Shore, Longueuil is traditionally good territory for the Liberals (aside from the brief New Democrat sweep in 2011). This is expressed, in THANDEREP, with the Quebec Standard Voting Pattern (TM) breaking into a 2:1 split in favour of the Liberals in 2019.
VoiceInTheWilderness
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The Island of Montreal is seat-dense enough to warrant breaking out into its own map, so let's skip to the other side and look at
Confused Frenchmen will should note that the escarpment in Nord-Pas-de-Calais, site of the Battle of Vimy Ridge, was named after this electoral district in suburban Montreal (ed: check this).
The island of Laval was historically a Liberal-Bloc swing area, but the last three elections saw it swept, first by the New Democrats as part of 2011's Orange Crush, and since by the Liberals. Only a few weeks to go to see if the pattern will break, but the Bloc seem to be on the defence and thus unlikely to pick up seats here.
Confused Frenchmen will should note that the escarpment in Nord-Pas-de-Calais, site of the Battle of Vimy Ridge, was named after this electoral district in suburban Montreal (ed: check this).
The island of Laval was historically a Liberal-Bloc swing area, but the last three elections saw it swept, first by the New Democrats as part of 2011's Orange Crush, and since by the Liberals. Only a few weeks to go to see if the pattern will break, but the Bloc seem to be on the defence and thus unlikely to pick up seats here.
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VoiceInTheWilderness
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I combined suburbs and farming villages north and northeast of Montreal to keep approximately to the administrative region of Lanaudière; others may divide the two rural and four suburban ridings differently. These are all solid Bloquiste seats that went New Democrat briefly in 2011; enough residual vote persists in 2015 to seat one incumbent before the faithful lose hope in 2019; the pro-government voters hang on to the last seat in 2019.
VoiceInTheWilderness
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The other suburban-and-rural combination north/northwest of Montreal, in 2011 these seats were - say it with me! - swept by the New Democrats. The Bloc are historically dominant here, and we can see under the hood that their hold is pretty strong in 2019.
VoiceInTheWilderness
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The mountainous northern reaches of both regions are a Bloc stronghold, although swept by the New Democrats in 2011. One survives under THANDEREP in 2015 to deny a seat to Rhéal Fortin, who led (unofficially) the mass revolt of Bloquiste MPs against Martine Ouellet's leadership in 2018 - his absence would change the Québec debout affair significantly. I've always thought that MPs ought to choose their own party leader; after all, they're the ones that have to work with/for them. This is not, however, the way the winds are blowing.