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Thandean Representation: The 2015 and 2019 Canadian Federal Elections Under Another Voting System

SIMCOE SOUTHERN & DUFFERIN
Dufferin—Caledon
Simcoe—Grey
York—Simcoe

2015 Members Elected
Dufferin—Caledon – David Allan Tilson
Simcoe—Grey – Kellie Lietch
York—Simcoe – Peter Van Loan

THANDEREP
SIMCOE SOUTHERN & DUFFERIN 1. Kellie Lietch 2. Mike MacEachern 3. David Allan Tilson

2019 Members Elected
Dufferin—Caledon – Kyle Seeback
Simcoe—Grey – Terry Dowdall
York—Simcoe – Scot Davidson

THANDEREP
SIMCOE SOUTHERN & DUFFERIN 1. Terry Dowdall 2. Lorne Kenney 3. Scot Davidson
Click to expand...

You've seen this constituency group on the edge of a few maps now; here's the breakdown. It's reliable Conservative territory, with a Liberal undercurrent.

Kyle Seeback appears to be a nomadic phenomenon, having in three successive elections won Brampton West, lost Brampton South, and won Dufferin—Caledon.
 
BARRIE & SIMCOE NORTHERN
Barrie—Innisfil
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Simcoe North

2015 Members Elected
Barrie—Innisfil – John Brassard
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte – Alex Nuttall
Simcoe North – Bruce Stanton

THANDEREP
BARRIE & SIMCOE NORTHERN 1. Bruce Stanton 2. Liz Riley 3. John Brassard

2019 Members Elected
Barrie—Innisfil – John Brassard
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte – Doug Shipley
Simcoe North – Bruce Stanton

THANDEREP
BARRIE & SIMCOE NORTHERN 1. Bruce Stanton 2. Gerry Hawes 3. John Brassard
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Another situation where the rural riding is more populous than the urban (-ish, in this case) ones: Riley and Hawes were both defeated Simcoe North candidates.

There isn't a LTTW captain named Alex Nuttall, right? I'm imagining that, right?
 
SUDBURY & GEORGIAN TRIANGLE NORTHERN
Nickel Belt
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Sudbury

2015 Members Elected
Nickel Belt – Marc Serré
Parry Sound—Muskoka – Tony Clement
Sudbury – Paul Lefebvre

THANDEREP
SUDBURY & GEORGIAN TRIANGLE NORTHERN 1. Paul Lefebvre 2. Tony Clement 3. Claude Gravelle

2019 Members Elected
Nickel Belt – Marc G Serré
Parry Sound—Muskoka – Scott Aitchison
Sudbury – Paul Lefebvre

THANDEREP
SUDBURY & GEORGIAN TRIANGLE NORTHERN 1. Paul Lefebvre 2. Scott Aitchison 3. Stef Paquette
Click to expand...

My "no emdashes" rule ran me into trouble with Parry Sound and Muskoka, at least in conjunction with my "maximum two things, joined by an ampersand" rule. "Cottage Country" is in the wrong register for a constituency name, but that is essentially what it is.

Nickel Belt (that is, Sudbury Outskirts Plus) has the strongest New Democrat undercurrent in this area, and so it is their candidate that THANDEREP boosts into office.
 
And that *phew* is the Ontario Peninsula. Get ready for the largest breakdown of the whole project

Ontario Peninsula (including Sudbury)
2015
Liberals 62/96 - 44.5% popular vote, 64.6% seats
Conservatives 28/96 - 36.0% popular vote, 29.2% seats
New Democrats 6/96 - 16.8% popular vote, 6.3% seats
Greens 0/96 - 2.8% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 51/96 - 44.5% popular vote, 53.1% seats
Conservatives 37/96 - 36.0% popular vote, 38.5% seats
New Democrats 8/96 - 16.8% popular vote, 8.3% seats
Greens 0/96 - 2.8% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 64/96 - 42.5% popular vote, 66.7% seats
Conservatives 28/96 - 33.1% popular vote, 29.2% seats
New Democrats 4/96 - 16.5% popular vote, 4.2% seats
Greens 0/96 - 6.3% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 52/96 - 42.5% popular vote, 54.2% seats
Conservatives 36/96 - 33.1% popular vote, 37.5% seats
New Democrats 8/96 - 16.5% popular vote, 8.3% seats
Greens 0/96 - 6.3% popular vote, 0.0% seats

The Liberal sweep of much of Greater Toronto comes undone under THANDEREP, balanced by some Conservative sweeps in rural parts and that one New Democrat thing in Windsor. The inefficiently distributed New Democrat and Green support continues to cost those parties, but THANDEREP doesn't consider that a problem.

This was quite a difficult map to make, with the wildly different constituency sizes. Behold:


thanderep southern ontario 2015.pngthanderep southern ontario 2019.png
 
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*SAULT STE MARIE
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuspasing
Sault Ste. Marie

2015 Members Elected
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuspasing – Carol Hughes
Sault Ste. Marie – Terry Sheehan

THANDEREP
*SAULT STE MARIE 1. Terry Sheehan 2. Carol Hughes

2019 Members Elected
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuspasing – Carol Hughes
Sault Ste. Marie – Terry Sheehan

THANDEREP
*SAULT STE MARIE 1. Carol Hughes 2. Terry Sheehan
Click to expand...

By 2019 the Conservatives have improved enough to place seconds in both ridings, bringing all three parties to within three percentage points of each other. Not quite enough to change the results, though.
 
TIMMINS & JAMES BAY
Timmins—James Bay

2015 Member Elected
Timmins—James Bay – Charlie Angus

THANDEREP
TIMMINS & JAMES BAY 1. Charlie Angus

2019 Member Elected
Timmins—James Bay – Charlie Angus

THANDEREP
TIMMINS & JAMES BAY 1. Charlie Angus
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Not a lot of exegesis required here. This riding on Ontario's northern shore has been represented by Charlie Angus since 2004, and as it's larger than the United Kingdom I sure wasn't merging it.
 
THUNDER BAY
Thunder Bay—Rainy River
Thunder Bay—Superior North

2015 Members Elected
Thunder Bay—Rainy River – Don Rusnak
Thunder Bay—Superior North – Patty Hajdu

THANDEREP
THUNDER BAY 1. Patty Hajdu 2. John Rafferty

2019 Members Elected
Thunder Bay—Rainy River – Marcus Powlowski
Thunder Bay—Superior North – Patty Hajdu

THANDEREP
THUNDER BAY 1. Patty Hajdu 2. Linda Rydholm
Click to expand...

It drives me absolutely batty that we have ridings the size of Taiwan and Austria that still manage to bisect the biggest urban area within them. Anyway, there's a New Democrat - to - Conservative swing of 9.5 percentage points between elections, and with the Liberals polling under 40% that's worth a seat.
 
KENORA
Kenora

2015 Member Elected
Kenora – Bob Nault

THANDEREP
KENORA 1. Bob Nault

2019 Member Elected
Kenora – Eric Melillo

THANDEREP
KENORA 1. Eric Melillo
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The largest and most rural of Ontarian ridings, including a whole heckuva lot of remote First Nations reserves. You could wedge Poland in here, though frankly I don't think it would be worth the effort. It was very close-fought between the Liberals and New Democrats in 2015, decided by 498 votes or a little over 1.5 percentage points, so naturally the Conservatives win it handily the next go-round.
 
Northern Ontario

2015
Liberals 8/12 - 41.9% popular vote, 66.7% seats
Conservatives 2/12 - 29.5% popular vote, 16.7% seats
New Democrats 2/12 - 24.5% popular vote, 16.7% seats
Greens 0/12 - 4.0% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 6/12 - 41.9% popular vote, 50.0% seats
Conservatives 2/12 - 29.5% popular vote, 16.7% seats
New Democrats 4/12 - 24.5% popular vote, 33.3% seats
Greens 0/12 - 4.0% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 6/12 - 34.0% popular vote, 50% seats
Conservatives 4/12 - 32.6% popular vote, 33.3% seats
New Democrats 2/12 - 24.5% popular vote, 16.7% seats
Greens 0/12 - 6.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 4/12 - 34.0% popular vote, 33.3% seats
Conservatives 5/12 - 32.6% popular vote, 41.7% seats
New Democrats 3/12 - 24.5% popular vote, 25.0% seats
Greens 0/12 - 6.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats

The Liberals benefit most from FPTP majoritarianism, but interestingly the New Democrat-Conservative swing between elections also is reflected in the THANDEREP boost.



thanderep ontario 2015.png
thanderep ontario 2019.png
 
Province of Ontario
2015Popular Vote (%)Seats (FPTP)Seats (THANDEREP)
Liberal44.98066
Conservative35.33344
New Democrat17.0811
Green3.800
Other00

2019Popular Vote (%)Seats (FPTP)Seats (THANDEREP)
Liberal41.97964
Conservative33.23647
New Democrat16.9610
Green6.300
Other00


Nation So Far
2015Popular Vote (%)Seats (FPTP)Seats (THANDEREP)
Liberal152123
Conservative4558
New Democrat2435
Bloquiste1015
Green00
Other00

2019Popular Vote (%)Seats (FPTP)Seats (THANDEREP)
Liberal140120
Conservative5064
New Democrat814
Bloquiste3230
Green13
Other00

still working on the popular vote math. please accept these works-in-progress. still, with ontario done, i feel for the first time in a week that i might finish by election day.
 
MANITOBA SOUTHEASTERN
Portage—Lisgar
Provencher

2015 Members Elected
Portage—Lisgar – Candice Bergen
Provencher – Ted Falk

THANDEREP
MANITOBA SOUTHEASTERN 1. Ted Falk 2. Terry Hayward

2019 Members Elected
Portage—Lisgar – Candice Bergen
Provencher – Ted Falk

THANDEREP
MANITOBA SOUTHEASTERN 1. Ted Falk 2. Candice Bergen
Click to expand...

Manitoba and Saskatchewan are gonna have a couple of rural 2-seaters. This one, covering everything south and/or east of Winnipeg, sees the Liberal minority narrowly pick off Candice Bergen, now our deputy leader of the Conservative Party. The reduction of the Liberal vote in 2019 allows the Conservatives to shut out all other parties once again - so much so that hypothetical third, fourth, and fifth MPs would also be Conservative before Liberal Trevor Kirczenow would finally sit sixth.
 
WINNIPEG EAST
Elmwood—Transcona
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital
Winnipeg South

2015 Members Elected
Elmwood—Transcona – Daniel Blaikie
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital – Dan Vandal
Winnipeg South – Terry Duguid

THANDEREP
WINNIPEG EAST 1. Dan Vandal 2. Gordon Giesbricht 3. Terry Duguid

2019 Members Elected
Elmwood—Transcona – Daniel Blaikie
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital – Dan Vandal
Winnipeg South – Terry Duguid

THANDEREP
WINNIPEG EAST 1. Melanie Maher 2. Dan Vandal 3. Daniel Blaikie
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Covering generally the city on the east bank of the Red River (of the North; don't @ me United States readers), Winnipeg East has a substantial Conservative minority - they were actually a plurality in 2019, though they could not win a seat. Under THANDEREP they unseat the lone New Democrat in 2015, of the illustrious Blaikie family of New Democrats, and one of the Liberals instead in 2019.
 
WINNIPEG WEST
Winnipeg Centre
Winnipeg North
Winnipeg South Centre

2015 Members Elected
Winnipeg Centre – Robert-Falcon Ouellette
Winnipeg North – Kevin Lamoureux
Winnipeg South Centre – Jim Carr

THANDEREP
WINNIPEG WEST 1. Jim Carr 2. Kevin Lamoureux 3. Robert-Falcon Ouellette

2019 Members Elected
Winnipeg Centre – Leah Gazan
Winnipeg North – Kevin Lamoureux
Winnipeg South Centre – Jim Carr

WINNIPEG WEST 1. Jim Carr 2. Leah Gazan 3. Joyce Bateman
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The Liberals swept Winnipeg's urban core in 2015, and manage to hang on to it all under THANDEREP. Their grip slips enough in 2019 for Leah Gazan to snag a seat for the New Democrats - you might remember her bill to convert CERB to a permanent universal basic income - and THANDEREP reveals the full scale of the slip as the Conservatives pick off a second Liberal seat.
 
WINNIPEG OUTSKIRTS & INTERLAKE
Charleswood—St James—Assiniboia—Headingley
Kildonan—St Paul
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman

2015 Members Elected
Charleswood—St James—Assiniboia—Headingley – Doug Eyolfson
Kildonan—St Paul – MaryAnn Mihychuk
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman – James Bezan

THANDEREP
WINNIPEG OUTSKIRTS & INTERLAKE 1. James Bezan 2. Doug Eyolfson 3. Steven Fletcher

2019 Members Elected
Charleswood—St James—Assiniboia—Headingley – Marty Morantz
Kildonan—St Paul – Raquel Dancho
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman – James Bezan

THANDEREP
WINNIPEG OUTSKIRTS & INTERLAKE 1. James Bezan 2. Raquel Dancho 3. Doug Eyolfson
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This is a speculative grouping of two partially-Winnipeg seats with the properly rural seat they both border. The Liberals have an efficient vote distribution in 2015, snagging both partially urban seats, and THANDEREP corrects this by allocating one to the Conservatives. On the other hand the Conservative sweep in 2019 isn't quite dominant enough to unseat the one remaining Liberal in 2019.
 
MANITOBA WESTERN
Brandon—Souris
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa

2015 Members Elected
Brandon—Souris – Larry Maguire
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa – Robert Sopuck

THANDEREP
MANITOBA WESTERN 1. Larry Maguire 2. Jodi Wyman

2019 Members Elected
Brandon—Souris – Larry Maguire
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa – Dan Mazier

THANDEREP
MANITOBA WESTERN 1. Larry Maguire 2. Dan Mazier
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Brandon is the major urban centre of this area at nearly fifty thousand residents - a far cry from Winnipeg's seven hundred thousand, but you try competing with a city that makes up 55% of its province. It's another case of a Liberal snagging a seat in the heady days of 2015, only to be turfed out again by consolidating Conservatives in 2019.
 
MANITOBA NORTHERN
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

2015 Members Elected
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski – Niki Ashton

THANDEREP
MANITOBA NORTHERN 1. Niki Ashton

2019 Members Elected
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski – Niki Ashton

THANDEREP
MANITOBA NORTHERN 1. Niki Ashton
Click to expand...

This riding covers nearly four-fifths of Manitoba entire, has the highest percentage of First Nations residents in the nation, the highest number of Cree speakers ditto, and has returned a New Democrat in every election since 1979 save two.
 
Manitoba!

2015
Liberals 7/14 - 45.2% popular vote, 50.0% seats
Conservatives 5/14 - 37.8% popular vote, 13.7% seats
New Democrats 2/14 - 13.8% popular vote, 14.3% seats
Greens 0/14 - 3.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 8/14 - 45.2% popular vote, 57.1% seats
Conservatives 5/14 - 37.8% popular vote, 13.7% seats
New Democrats 1/14 - 13.8% popular vote, 7.1% seats
Greens 0/14 - 3.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 4/14 - 26.6% popular vote, 28.6% seats
Conservatives 7/14 - 45.5% popular vote, 50.0% seats
New Democrats 3/14 - 21.0% popular vote, 21.4% seats
Greens 0/14 - 5.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 3/14 - 26.6% popular vote, 21.4% seats
Conservatives 8/14 - 45.5% popular vote, 57.1% seats
New Democrats 3/14 - 21.0% popular vote, 21.4% seats
Greens 0/14 - 5.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats

Weirdly, THANDEREP is actually amplifying the seat-share of the dominant party in Manitoba. I'm not quite sure why that is.

thanderep manitoba 2015.pngthanderep manitoba 2019.png
 
SASKATCHEWAN EASTERN
Souris—Moose Mountain
Yorkton—Melville

2015 Members Elected
Souris—Moose Mountain – Robert Gordon Kitchen
Yorkton—Melville – Cathay Wagantall

THANDEREP
SASKATCHEWAN EASTERN 1. Robert Gordon Kitchen 2. Cathay Wagantall

2019 Members Elected
Souris—Moose Mountain – Robert Kitchen
Yorkton—Melville – Cathay Wagantall

THANDEREP
SASKATCHEWAN EASTERN 1. Robert Kitchen 2. Cathay Wagantall
Click to expand...

The Robert Kitchens are the same person; I'm not sure where his middle name went. Anyhow, this bit of Saskatchewan wrapping two-thirds of the way around Regina is very similar to the rural Manitoba ridings, albeit here the Liberals were never strong enough to poach a second seat. Two Conservatives, no muss, no fuss.
 
REGINA
Regina—Lewvan
Regina—Qu'Appelle
Regina—Wascana

2015 Members Elected
Regina—Lewvan – Erin Weir
Regina—Qu'Appelle – Andrew Scheer
Regina—Wascana – Ralph Goodale

THANDEREP
REGINA 1. Trent Fraser 2. Ralph Goodale 3. Erin Weir

2019 Members Elected
Regina—Lewvan – Warren Steinley
Regina—Qu'Appelle – Andrew Scheer
Regina—Wascana – Michael Kram

THANDEREP
REGINA 1. Warren Steinley 2. Andrew Scheer 3. Jigar Patel
Click to expand...

Any sensible THANDEREP constituency of Regina would saw off the Qu'Appelle extension that makes up 99% of the riding's land area and add it to a rural 2-seater. That said, Andrew Scheer et al. were being voted for at those polling stations, so I must count them with Regina.

Hilariously, in 2015 the Conservative runner-up squeezes ahead of then-Speaker of the House Andrew Scheer (he was the future once). The 2019 Conservative sweep of Regina turns the last THANDEREP seat into a Liberal-New Democrat marginal; the New Democrats manage to salvage Erin Weir's seat, and Ralph Goodale is dismissed no matter which way you slice it. (Well, I think he returns under TOPVOTE, but we're not doing that here.)
 
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