Thandean Representation: The 2015 and 2019 Canadian Federal Elections Under Another Voting System

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

NORTH YORK
Eglinton—Lawrence
Willowdale
York Centre

2015 Members Elected
Eglinton—Lawrence – Marco Mendicino
Willowdale – Ali Ehsassi
York Centre – Michael Levitt

THANDEREP
NORTH YORK 1. Marco Mendicino 2. Joe Oliver 3. Ali Ehsassi

2019 Members Elected
Eglinton—Lawrence – Marco Mendicino
Willowdale – Ali Ehsassi
York Centre – Michael Levitt

THANDEREP
NORTH YORK 1. Marco Mendicino 2. Chani Aryeh-Bain 3. Ali Ehsassi

North York lies on the northern edge of Toronto, just south of York Regional Municipality, because... well, look, there are a lot of Yorks about, cut us some slack.

Defeated Finance Minister Joe Oliver hangs onto his seat behind the man who unseated him in actuality, alone of the three Conservative incumbents. York Centre was the focus of a high-profile by-election last year, where the Liberals held the seat against Maxime Bernier (the People's Party one, not the Rhino one), who got less than 4% of the vote.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

REXDALE & MALTON
Etobicoke North
Humber River—Black Creek
Mississauga—Malton

2015 Members Elected
Etobicoke North – Kirsty Duncan
Humber River—Black Creek – Judy Sgro
Mississauga—Malton – Navdeep Bains

THANDEREP
REXDALE & MALTON 1. Kirsty Duncan 2. Navdeep Bains 3. Jagdish Grewal

2019 Members Elected
Etobicoke North – Kirsty Duncan
Humber River—Black Creek – Judy Sgro
Mississauga—Malton – Navdeep Bains

THANDEREP
REXDALE & MALTON 1. Navdeep Bains 2. Kirsty Duncan 3. Tom Varughese

Much of the Toronto suburbs are these kinds of seats, currently Liberal but plausibly Conservative. Full of Dougies, Steves, and Heathers, in Harper-era strategic parlance. The veteran parliamentarian Judy Sgro, who has sat uninterrupted since 1999, is the unlucky one here.

 

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ETOBICOKE SOUTH & COOKSVILLE
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Mississauga East—Cooksville

2015 Members Elected
Etobicoke Centre – Borys Wrzesnewskyj
Etobicoke—Lakeshore – James Maloney
Mississauga East—Cooksville – Peter Fonseca

THANDEREP
ETOBICOKE SOUTH & COOKSVILLE 1. James Maloney 2. Ted Opitz 3. Borys Wrzesnewskyj

2019 Members Elected
Etobicoke Centre – Yvan Baker
Etobicoke—Lakeshore – James Maloney
Mississauga East—Cooksville – Peter Fonseca

THANDEREP
ETOBICOKE SOUTH & COOKSVILLE 1. James Maloney 2. Ted Opitz 3. Yvan Baker

The western Toronto suburbs have very strong immigrant populations; in the shoreward parts of Etobicoke it's mainly Slavic immigrants. (It was even more obvious when Lakeshore was electing some guy named Michael Ignatieff).

Ted Opitz was the Conservative MP for Centre in 2011, after a legal battle that went all the way to the Supreme Court - originally reported as winning by 26 votes, then having 79 of his votes thrown out, then 59 of those votes reinstated. He hangs on under THANDEREP with far less drama, alongside the Liberal he unseated whose name seems tailored to foil write-in campaigns.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

I'll get to Peel Region (i.e. Brampton & Mississauga) momentarily, but first here's the Toronto Proper map. Not a lot of motion, but the Liberals do push two opposition MPs to the bottom of the returned list in 2019.

Toronto

2015
Liberals 27/27 - 52.9% popular vote, 100.0% seats
Conservatives 0/27 - 26.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 0/27 - 18.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/27 - 2.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 18/27 - 52.9% popular vote, 66.7% seats
Conservatives 6/27 - 26.6% popular vote, 22.2% seats
New Democrats 3/27 - 18.1% popular vote, 11.1% seats
Greens 0/27 - 2.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 27/27 - 54.8% popular vote, 100.0% seats
Conservatives 0/27 - 23.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 0/27 - 16.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/27 - 4.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 18/27 - 54.8% popular vote, 66.7% seats
Conservatives 6/27 - 23.2% popular vote, 22.2% seats
New Democrats 3/27 - 16.2% popular vote, 11.1% seats
Greens 0/27 - 4.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats

The Liberals sweep the whole region under First-Past-the-Post, but THANDEREP gives them "only" a supermajority for their low-fifties vote-share.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

MISSISSAUGA SOUTHWEST
Mississauga Centre
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Mississauga—Lakeshore

2015 Members Elected
Mississauga Centre – Omar Alghabra
Mississauga—Erin Mills – Iqra Khalid
Mississauga—Lakeshore – Sven Spengemann

THANDEREP
MISSISSAUGA SOUTHWEST 1. Omar Alghabra 2. Stella Ambler 3. Sven Spengemann

2019 Members Elected
Mississauga Centre – Omar Alghabra
Mississauga—Erin Mills – Iqra Khalid
Mississauga—Lakeshore – Sven Spengemann

THANDEREP
MISSISSAUGA SOUTHWEST 1. Iqra Khalid 2. Stella Ambler 3. Omar Alghabra

I so wanted the six ridings of Mississauga to form two neat seats (and Etobicoke's three as another) but I had one surplus seat in Toronto and two in Brampton, so the numbers just didn't line up

Omar Alghabra was appointed to Cabinet to maintain the crucial proportion of "immigrant entrepreneurial non-white cabinet ministers from Mississauga first elected in the mid-2000s" after Navdeep Bains resigned.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

BRAMPTON WEST & STREETSVILLE
Brampton West
Brampton South
Mississauga—Streetsville

2015 Members Elected
Brampton West – Kamal Khera
Brampton South – Sonia Sidhu
Mississauga—Streetsville – Gagan Sikand

THANDEREP
BRAMPTON WEST & STREETSVILLE 1. Gagan Sikand 2. Brad Butt 3. Kamal Khera

2019 Members Elected
Brampton West – Kamal Khera
Brampton South – Sonia Sidhu
Mississauga—Streetsville – Gagan Sikand

THANDEREP
BRAMPTON WEST & STREETSVILLE 1. Gagan Sikand 2. Ghada Melek 3. Kamal Khera

I'd long assumed Brampton's reputation for a predominantly South Asian population was overstated, like Surrey, BC. Then I saw the candidate lists and reconsidered. (Brad Butt and Ghada Melek are from Mississauga.)

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

*BRAMPTON EAST
Brampton Centre
Brampton East
Brampton North

2015 Members Elected
Brampton Centre – Ramesh Sangha
Brampton East – Raj Grewal
Brampton North – Ruby Sahota

THANDEREP
*BRAMPTON EAST 1. Raj Grewal 2. Parm Gill 3. Ruby Sahota

2019 Members Elected
Brampton Centre – Ramesh Sangha
Brampton East – Maninder Sidhu
Brampton North – Ruby Sahota

THANDEREP
*BRAMPTON EAST 1. Ruby Sahota 2. Arpan Khanna 3. Maninder Sidhu

The last of Peel Region, and like all the other seats, these were entirely swept by the Conservatives in 2011, in between seven Liberal sweeps*. THANDEREP, mercifully, returns a more representative batch of representatives.

*I'm eliding the one split result, 2008, where the Conservatives won two seats and the Liberals the other seven.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

Peel Region (excluding Caledon)

2015
Liberals 15/15 - 53.5% popular vote, 100.0% seats
Conservatives 0/15 - 33.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 0/15 - 11.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/15 - 1.8% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 10/15 - 53.5% popular vote, 66.7% seats
Conservatives 5/15 - 33.2% popular vote, 33.3% seats
New Democrats 0/15 - 11.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/15 - 1.8% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 15/15 - 53.4% popular vote, 100.0% seats
Conservatives 0/15 - 28.3% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 0/15 - 13.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/15 - 3.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 10/15 - 53.4% popular vote, 66.7% seats
Conservatives 5/15 - 28.3% popular vote, 33.3% seats
New Democrats 0/15 - 13.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Greens 0/15 - 3.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats

Another quite rigid region, quite similar to the rest of Toronto. I can see - what's the electoral equivalent of dollar signs? - in Erin O'Toole's eyes now. The idea of the Conservatives arguing for voting reform and the Liberals for the status quo is far funnier to me than really it ought to be.




This is the last "small" map before I tackle the Ontario Peninsula.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

BURLINGTON & OAKVILLE
Burlington
Oakville
Oakville North—Burlington

2015 Members Elected
Burlington – Karina Gould
Oakville – John Oliver
Oakville North—Burlington – Pam Damoff

THANDEREP
BURLINGTON & OAKVILLE 1. Karina Gould 2. Mike Wallace 3. John Oliver

2019 Members Elected
Burlington – Karina Gould
Oakville – Anita Anand
Oakville North—Burlington – Pam Damoff

THANDEREP
BURLINGTON & OAKVILLE 1. Karina Gould 2. Sean Weir 3. Pam Damoff

Though now fully two regions away from Toronto Region, these are still definitely part of the Greater Toronto Area. How can you tell? The Liberals are still sweeping the seats under FPTP.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

HAMILTON
Hamilton Centre
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Hamilton Mountain

2015 Members Elected
Hamilton Centre – David Christopherson
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek – Bob Bratina
Hamilton Mountain – Scott Duvall

THANDEREP
HAMILTON 1. David Christopherson 2. Bob Bratina 3. Al Miles

2019 Members Elected
Hamilton Centre – Matthew Green
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek – Bob Bratina
Hamilton Mountain – Scott Duvall

THANDEREP
HAMILTON 1. Matthew Green 2. Bob Bratina 3. Peter Dyakowski

Leaving the Greater Toronto Area towards the arch of the Golden Horseshoe (so-called for its appearance at night from space) - the Greater Greater Toronto Area, if you will - we find at last some other parties represented. The Conservatives are a few thousand votes safe, but there's less than two hundred votes determining which Conservative gets to sit! Scott Duvall was within a few hundred of unseating Christopherson in 2015 as well.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

HAMILTON WEST & NIAGARA WEST
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Niagara West

2015 Members Elected
Flamborough—Glanbrook – David Sweet
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas – Filomena Tassi
Niagara West – Dean Allison

THANDEREP
HAMILTON WEST & NIAGARA WEST 1. Dean Allison 2. Filomena Tassi 3. David Sweet

2019 Members Elected
Flamborough—Glanbrook – David Sweet
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas – Filomena Tassi
Niagara West – Dean Allison

THANDEREP
HAMILTON WEST & NIAGARA WEST 1. Filomena Tassi 2. David Sweet 3. Jennifer Stebbing

The top of the Conservative list is a matter of eighty votes or so; it's fine when times are good, but the Liberals peel off two thousand Conservative votes between elections and that's that for Dean Allison. But for a disastrous performance in Niagara West, the New Democrats nearly snatch the third seat in 2019.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

NIAGARA & ST CATHARINES
Niagara Centre
Niagara Falls
St Catharines

2015 Members Elected
Niagara Centre – Vance Badawey
Niagara Falls – Rob Nicholson
St Catharines – Chris Bittle

THANDEREP
NIAGARA & ST CATHARINES 1. Chris Bittle 2. Rob Nicholson 3. Malcolm Allen

2019 Members Elected
Niagara Centre – Vance Badawey
Niagara Falls – Tony Baldinelli
St Catharines – Chris Bittle

THANDEREP
NIAGARA & ST CATHARINES 1. Chris Bittle 2. Tony Baldinelli 3. Malcolm Allen

The eastern tip of the Ontario peninsula, right up against Niagara County, New York. Malcolm Allen placed second in Niagara Centre in 2015, and the whole area is favourable enough territory for New Democrats to comfortably take the third seat without seriously threatening to move up the list.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

ERIE COAST NORTH
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Haldimand—Norfolk
Oxford

2015 Members Elected
Elgin—Middlesex—London – Karen Louise Vecchio
Haldimand—Norfolk – Diane Finley
Oxford – Dave MacKenzie

THANDEREP
ERIE COAST NORTH 1. Karen Louise Vecchio 2. Joan Mouland 3. Dave MacKenzie

2019 Members Elected
Elgin—Middlesex—London – Karen Vecchio
Haldimand—Norfolk – Diane Finley
Oxford – Dave MacKenzie

THANDEREP
ERIE COAST NORTH 1. Karen Vecchio 2. Dave MacKenzie 3. Kim Huffman

Rural Ontario. Letterkenny country. As safely Conservative as rural Alberta in many ways, but not so much as to sweep the board.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

LONDON
London—Fanshawe
London North Centre
London West

2015 Members Elected
London—Fanshawe – Irene Mathyssen
London North Centre – Peter Fragiskatos
London West – Kate Young

THANDEREP
LONDON 1. Peter Fragiskatos 2. Ed Holder 3. Kate Young

2019 Members Elected
London—Fanshawe – Lindsay Mathyssen
London North Centre – Peter Fragiskatos
London West – Kate Young

THANDEREP
LONDON 1. Kate Young 2. Lindsay Mathyssen 3. Liz Snelgrove

Confused English people will note that the capital of England was named- ah, bugger, I've already done this joke.

There were almost half-again as many Conservatives as New Democrats in London, but evenly spread into groups 2/3 the size needed to win a seat. Kate Young edges out Irene Mathyssen by two hundred and ten votes. All parties saw their votes swing by thousands in 2019, letting Mathyssen fille accomplish what Mathyssen mère could not.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

WINDSOR & ESSEX
Essex
Windsor—Tecumseh
Windsor West

2015 Members Elected
Essex – Tracy Ramsey
Windsor—Tecumseh – Cheryl Hardcastle
Windsor West – Brian Masse

THANDEREP
WINDSOR & ESSEX 1. Tracy Ramsey 2. Jeff Watson 3. Frank Schiller

2019 Members Elected
Essex – Chris Lewis
Windsor—Tecumseh – Irek Kusmierczyk
Windsor West – Brian Masse

THANDEREP
WINDSOR & ESSEX 1. Tracy Ramsey 2. Chris Lewis 3. Irek Kusmierczyk

Down to the southern tip of Canada, opposite the river from Detroit. Can't say I was expecting to find a New Democrat bastion here, and indeed that castle turned out to be built on sand. In something of a plot twist, it's the rural riding that has by far the largest electorate, letting Tracy Ramsey sweep into Parliament ahead of the guy who, you know, actually won his seat.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

SARNIA & KENT
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Sarnia—Lambton

2015 Members Elected
Chatham-Kent—Leamington – Dave Van Kesteren
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex – Bev Shipley
Sarnia—Lambton – Marilyn Gladu

THANDEREP
SARNIA & KENT 1. Bev Shipley 2. Katie Omstead 3. Jason Wayne McMichael

2019 Members Elected
Chatham-Kent—Leamington – Dave Epp
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex – Lianne Rood
Sarnia—Lambton – Marilyn Gladu

THANDEREP
SARNIA & KENT 1. Lianne Rood 2. Katie Omstead 3. Marilyn Gladu

That rural area between London and Windsor. Ontarian friends who have travelled to England report that it's very disorienting to have all the cities not in their usual layout.

The New Democrats are about a thousand votes clear of the second Conservative in 2015, Marilyn Gladu, which would've really torpedoed her non-existent shot at the leadership (inb4 all the necrolikes from the Gladu 2025 crowd). The New Democrats lose a quarter of their vote between elections, and Gladu adds about the same to her personal tally, coming twenty-eight votes from the top.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

GEORGIAN TRIANGLE WESTERN
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Huron—Bruce
Perth—Wellington

2015 Members Elected
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound – Larry Miller
Huron—Bruce – Ben Lobb
Perth—Wellington – John Nater

THANDEREP
GEORGIAN TRIANGLE WESTERN 1. Larry Miller 2. Allan Thompson 3. Ben Lobb

2019 Members Elected
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound – Alex Ruff
Huron—Bruce – Ben Lobb
Perth—Wellington – John Nater

THANDEREP
GEORGIAN TRIANGLE WESTERN 1. Ben Lobb 2. Allan Thompson 3. Alex Ruff

This piece of the Lake Huron shore is as rural as Southern Ontario gets, being outside the Windsor-Quebec corridor (but sometimes counted among the Greater Golden Horseshoe, or, as I stubbornly call it, the Greater Greater Greater Toronto Area). Alex Ruff actually improved on Larry Miller's vote total - great work for a non-incumbent candidate - but cannot compete with the huge vote total Ben Lobb suddenly decided to throw up.

What do you call this area anyhow??

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

KITCHENER NORTH & WATERLOO
Kitchener—Conestoga
Kitchener Centre
Waterloo

2015 Members Elected
Kitchener—Conestoga – Harold Albrecht
Kitchener Centre – Raj Saini
Waterloo – Bardish Chagger

THANDEREP
KITCHENER NORTH & WATERLOO 1. Bardish Chagger 2. Harold Albrecht 3. Raj Saini

2019 Members Elected
Kitchener—Conestoga – Tim Louis
Kitchener Centre – Raj Saini
Waterloo – Bardish Chagger

THANDEREP
KITCHENER NORTH & WATERLOO 1. Bardish Chagger 2. Harold Albrecht 3. Tim Louis

We duck now down into the regional towns of the Windsor-Quebec corridor, outside the Greater Toronto Area but nevertheless in Toronto's gravity well. All three seats went Conservative in 2011, but only Albrecht, first elected in 2006, survives. Under THANDEREP, the big 2019 drama is not Louis's defeat of Albrecht by three hundred votes, but Louis's defeat of Saini by half that margin. A fourth seat, if it had existed, would have actually gone to the Green candidate, Mike Morrice, who placed second in Kitchener Centre after a heroic personal effort, and dragged his party total almost singlehandedly above the New Democrats'.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

CAMBRIDGE & BRANT
Brantford—Brant
Cambridge
Kitchener South—Hespeler

2015 Members Elected
Brantford—Brant – Phil McColeman
Cambridge – Bryan May
Kitchener South—Hespeler – Marwan Tabbara

THANDEREP
CAMBRIDGE & BRANT 1. Phil McColeman 2. Bryan May 3. Gary Goodyear

2019 Members Elected
Brantford—Brant – Phil McColeman
Cambridge – Bryan May
Kitchener South—Hespeler – Marwan Tabbara

THANDEREP
CAMBRIDGE & BRANT 1. Bryan May 2. Phil McColeman 3. Marwan Tabbara

Wedged between Kitchener, Hamilton, and the Erie shore ridings, this area is pretty 2-party-ish; the New Democrats would need over fifteen hundred votes to unseat Goodyear in 2015 and a thousand against Tabbara in 2019.

 

[VoiceInTheWilderness]

GUELPH & HALTON NORTHERN
Guelph
Milton
Wellington—Halton Hills

2015 Members Elected
Guelph – Lloyd Longfield
Milton – Lisa Raitt
Wellington—Halton Hills – Michael Chong

THANDEREP
GUELPH & HALTON NORTHERN 1. Lloyd Longfield 2. Michael Chong 3. Don Trant

2019 Members Elected
Guelph – Lloyd Longfield
Milton – Adam van Koeverden
Wellington—Halton Hills – Michael Chong

THANDEREP
GUELPH & HALTON NORTHERN 1. Adam van Koeverden 2. Michael Chong 3. Lloyd Longfield

Guelph is a Liberal town, but the rest of this Toronto satellite has Conservative sympathies. Still, there's only room for one in 2015, and Raitt ends up getting the axe four years earlier than in real life. Too bad, I did always like her.