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AMERICA DIVIDES: The Multi-Party US Election of 2016

5

Thande

Conſiderable Perſon
Published by SLP
Rich (BB code):
	MD-02		
	Lib          	116,801   	37%
	Prog          	72,670    	23%
	Nat          	68,142    	21.6%
	Fus          	44,408    	14.1%
	All          	13,445    	4.3%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	315,467
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Nat
"Another result from Maryland - don't - and was I just saying that Maryland was going all to the left parties - well here, like Massachusetts, we can see a National MC being elected alongside a Progressive and a Liberal. The heavy gerrymandering of borders to shut out the old Republicans has failed under the new proportional system, though only just - the Liberals nearly took the third seat".

Rich (BB code):
	PA-04		
	Nat          	114,994   	34%
	Fus          	83,577    	24.7%
	Lib          	66,418    	19.6%
	Prog          	59,343    	17.5%
	All          	14,354    	4.2%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	338,687
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Fus
			Lib
"And we were just talking about the conservative rural part of Pennsylvania in between the cities. This district includes the US Civil War battlefield of Gettysburg, and East Berlin - er, not that one. Here it's the left that's not far off getting shut out, and the Con-Con Fusionists have picked up another seat."

"That's a fair few seats from Pennsylvania now..."

"All right, Jeremy, stop making those puppy-dog eyes, we'll let you do the Pennsylvania map in a little while."

Rich (BB code):
	CT-03		
	Lib          	94,693    	29.4%
	Prog          	85,139    	26.5%
	Nat          	84,522    	26.3%
	Fus          	45,446    	14.1%
	All          	12,037    	3.7%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	321,837
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Nat
"Similar to the others we've seen in the western part of the state, in Connecticut's third district the Liberals have come ahead of the Progressives. The New England map has now really started to fill up."

Rich (BB code):
	NJ-03		
	Nat          	157,902   	43.2%
	Lib          	100,090   	27.4%
	Prog          	65,000    	17.8%
	Fus          	29,801    	8.2%
	All          	12,447    	3.4%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	365,240
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Nat
"Another third district, this one from New Jersey. Like neighbouring Pennsylvania, New Jersey was formerly considered a 'blue state' dominated by the votes of cities - the state is effectively crushed between New York and Pennsylvania, and contains cities that act as spillover suburbs to both New York City and Philadelphia. However, also like Pennsylvania, it has a small-c conservative rural bit in between."

"That's not surprising; what is surprising, and some might say concerning, is that it's not large-C Conservative. Instead, the right-wing vote there has gone overwhelmingly to the National Party, who win two out of the three seats. What might be the cause of this?"

"The popular incumbent Governor of the state, Chris Christie, has joined the Nationals and been one of their most prominent supporters...even so, this is an unexpected result."

Rich (BB code):
	FL-02		
	Nat          	99,299    	28%
	Con          	70,136    	19.8%
	Cst          	65,556    	18.5%
	Lib          	64,707    	18.2%
	Prog          	43,929    	12.4%
	All          	11,322    	3.2%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	354,948
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Con
			Cst
"Speaking of right-wing districts...(!)"

"Yes, I think this is the first district we've seen where we have a total right-wing shutout, with all three seats going to the three parties on the right; we've seen the reverse, of course, in places like New York City and Boston. Florida's second district is in what is called the Panhande, in the northwest of the state. Surprisingly, it was won in 2014 by a Democrat in an upset victory against the trend of that night, but clearly such luck is not with the left tonight."

"And we can see the results coming in in Florida now..."

(sotto voce) "Who let him get hold of the remote?!"

Florida 4results.png

"There it is. The National Party has topped the polls in all four districts to declare so far. Florida may be home to Donald Trump's holiday home Mar-a-Lago, but few, I think, had expected it to also be home to so many of his party's voters - particularly considering that this is the home state of Conservative co-leader Marco Rubio."

"Didn't you say that before?"

"Well, it's what he would have wanted."

"Quite. And speaking of which, it's time to go over...wait, one more:"

Rich (BB code):
	NJ-10		
	Lib          	163,331   	59.5%
	Prog          	70,491    	25.7%
	Nat          	28,152    	10.3%
	Fus          	6,959     	2.5%
	All          	5,477     	2%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	274,410
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib
			Prog
"Quite a contrast to our last result from New Jersey. This is a more typical urban district, taking in parts of Jersey City and Newark. Here, the Liberals take two seats - they weren't far off taking all three, in fact - and the Progressives take the third, with the right completely shut out. Another sign of gerrymandering?"

"Yes - I think we're going to have to have Jeremy explain gerrymandering at some point for the viewers at home, as we keep referring to it...but in the meantime, Katty, I think it's time for another political rundown. Who do you have for us this time?"

"Well, Andrew, we decided the order of these in advance, and like the polls suggested, the assumption was that the Conservatives would be in second, so we'll look at them next. Of course, the night is still young, and we have not yet reached the more right-wing states in America's western interior..."

Rich (BB code):
	SC-04		
	Con          	68,645    	22.7%
	Lib          	68,547    	22.7%
	Nat          	60,256    	20%
	Cst          	52,734    	17.5%
	Prog          	35,428    	11.7%
	All          	16,137    	5.3%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	301,747
			
	MCs elected:		
			Con
			Lib
			Nat
"We haven't got there yet, but that was at least a positive sign for the Conservatives, in that they top the polls in a southern district for the first time I think - albeit by the slimmest of margins. But go on."

Kay nodded, and the screen cleared to show an image of a melting elephant that would probably have led Salvador Dali to write a strongly-worded letter to his lawyers. "Before Mr Obama changed politics, the Republican party - the Grand Old Party or GOP as it was often known, though actually slightly younger than the Democrats - was America's other big tent party." Images of Abraham Lincoln slowly fading into Ronald Reagan. "The Republicans began as a party opposing slavery, and the first Republican President, Abraham Lincoln, led the United States through the Civil War. The Republicans then became known as the party of big business and, later, hawkish foreign policy. Ronald Reagan, arguably the most transformative president of recent years until Mr Obama blew all records out of the water, was a Hollywood actor turned Republican Governor of California. The party most recently held the White House under the social conservative George W. Bush, who gained it in the controversial 2000 election which we all remember, then presided over the 'war on terror' and the equally controversial invasion of Iraq. Since Mr Obama's election, the Republicans have generally strongly opposed him, and his push for radical reforms to the US political system are no exception."

The melting elephant and images of past presidents faded away, leaving a red star symbol flanked by three red stripes on either side. "As Mr Obama's reforms have been realised against their will, the division of the Republicans was inevitable, yet paradoxically has become even more contentious due to how they approached their opposition to those reforms. The Conservative Party represents the heir to most of the Republican Party establishment, just as the Liberals are that to the establishment of the Democrats. However, there have been signs that the Conservatives have not been as successful in drawing the great body of the former Republicans' activists to them as the Liberals have with those of the Democrats."

"Something which might help explain what we've seen so far tonight," Neil interjected.

Rich (BB code):
	NC-06		
	Lib          	85,142    	23.7%
	Cst          	80,756    	22.5%
	Nat          	79,749    	22.2%
	Prog          	63,582    	17.7%
	Con          	40,882    	11.4%
	All          	8,741     	2.4%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	358,853
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Cst
			Nat
"Perhaps, indeed. And that result you can see scrolling past there - another sign of that."

"Exactly. North Carolina, a closely-divided swing state which has seen so much struggle in recent years between a right-wing state government and left-wing activists - yet in this northern sixth district, the Conservatives find themselves in a distant fifth place, with the Progressives closer to gaining a seat than they are."

Rich (BB code):
	NY-22		
	Nat          	82,903    	28.6%
	Fus          	76,010    	26.2%
	Prog          	63,895    	22%
	Lib          	50,121    	17.3%
	All          	17,025    	5.9%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	289,954
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Fus
			Prog
"And that result was from upstate New York, and area where the Conservatives should have been competitive - yet they ended up having to ally with the Constitution Party in the Fusion group and, even then, come behind the Nationals. But I believe you have a VT that should say more about this?"

"Yes. Roll the tape."

The production style of the VT was almost identical to the last one, except the barely-perceptible blue background tint had been replaced with a red one. Again, a young activist, this time a man in his early twenties who looked like he was auditioning for the lead role in 'The Book of Mormon'. "Why am I a Conservative?" he asked rhetorically.

"I'm a Conservative because I want our country to be strong and stand up to threats from those who would plot our destruction," said a man labelled Lindsey Graham - outgoing South Carolina Senator.

"I'm a Conservative because I want to honour those who worked their way up and built a life in this great country legitimately, and protect them from those who did not," said Marco Rubio - outgoing Florida Senator, who for some reason was sat in one of those comically oversized novelty wooden chairs. "And let's dispel with this fiction that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing - he knows exactly what he's--"

"I'm a Conservative because I don't want people to murder babies in the womb," said Michele Bachmann - former Minnesota Congresswoman. "I'd rather they grow up to at least six or seven before someone breaks into their school and shoots them."

"I'm a Conservative because I really hate Disney's Mulan, and now they're doing a live-action remake apparently, and that's just not on," said Mike Pence - Indiana Governor.

"I'm a Conservative because we need a balanced budget and corporations are people too, man," said Justin Amash - Michigan Congressman.

It cut back to the activist, who grinned, showing off teeth that would probably perceptibly glow under a black light. "And we have a great trailblazer to lead us in this great republic founded on government by the people, for the people and of the people, in rejection of hereditary monarchy and privilege, former Governor of Florida and living exclamation point, Jeb Bush!"

Rich (BB code):
	MD-05		
	Lib          	160,176   	44.1%
	Prog          	72,933    	20.1%
	Nat          	67,822    	18.7%
	Fus          	48,994    	13.5%
	All          	13,693    	3.8%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	363,617
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib
			Prog
The new result from Maryland mercifully covered up the VT coming abruptly to an end.

"Well, we have to leave things there, as of course that is now outdated," Kay said. "With Mr Bush's paper bag injury, the party is now being co-led by Marco Rubio, who we saw there briefly, and John Kasich of Ohio. "But, reading between the lines there, we can see some of the reasons behind the party's current difficulties. Despite all their rhetoric against Mr Obama, they have de facto accepted the new status quo of the parliamentary system. By contrast, the Constitution Party, which we'll hear from later, steadfastly rejects it on principle. Despite many commonalities of ideology otherwise, this point has been difficult to bridge, hence the only limited number of Fusionist alliances in certain states."

"And of course this mostly seems to benefit the former-Democratic left, whose split seems to be less severe."

"As we say there in Maryland's fifth district, which takes in the area just east of Washington DC. Washington itself did not use to have representation under the old system, of course, but that has now changed..."

Rich (BB code):
	VA-05		
	Lib          	95,808    	26.2%
	Nat          	82,822    	22.7%
	Con          	68,682    	18.8%
	Prog          	58,857    	16.1%
	Cst          	43,686    	12%
	All          	15,548    	4.3%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	365,403
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Nat
			Con
"And that's a good result there for the Liberals in this large, quite rural district in Virginia along the Appalachians. While there was a substantial Democratic vote there before, it usually went for the Republicans overall. Another sign of the damaging split in the right-wing parties, though at least the Conservatives have picked up the third seat."

Rich (BB code):
	NY-27		
	Nat          	130,108   	37.5%
	Fus          	76,761    	22.1%
	Prog          	67,516    	19.5%
	Lib          	54,592    	15.7%
	All          	17,795    	5.1%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	FALSE          	0         	0%
			
		Total	346,771
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Fus
			Prog
"A contrast there in upstate New York, however, with the Liberals cut out altogether."

"Yes; this is another rural area, wrapping around the cities of Rochester and Buffalo. But why describe it in words when I can update...the map!"

New York 8results.png

"A trend emerging there. If we just look at the top parties, it's not dissimilar to things under the old two-party system. But rather than blue in the city and red in the upstate, now it's orange in the upstate as the Nationals have become the leading right-wing party here."

"What does that herald for the rest of the nation - and the watching world?"

"We don't know - but we can look at the current table for seats after thirty-nine districts and 117 seats - just under one-tenth of the total on offer tonight - have declared..."

Rich (BB code):
	Seats declared
Lib	43
Nat	32
Prog 27
Con	7
Cst	4
Fus	4
All	0
"And the night is yet young."
 
6

Thande

Conſiderable Perſon
Published by SLP
"If you're just joining us, this is an American election night like no other. Under the new proportional voting system and party structure introduced by Barack Obama, the electoral map has become a rainbow of options - and some of the, er, more popular colours have defied the ability of the polls to predict."

"Later, we'll be speaking to some ordinary, everyday Americans about their reactions to these early results, as well as hearing more about the new parties. However, as a reminder, this election takes place across multiple time zones, and therefore the polls close at different times. Still within the Eastern Time Zone, but a fraction later, we're now seeing the first of the Midwest states, west of the Appalachian mountains and the original Thirteen Colonies of the eastern seaboard."

"That's right, and here is our first result from the state of Ohio."

Rich (BB code):
	OH-14		
	Con          	106,428   	28.8%
	Lib          	87,502    	23.7%
	Nat          	70,413    	19.1%
	Prog          	68,100    	18.4%
	Cst          	21,043    	5.7%
	All          	15,788    	4.3%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	369,274
			
	MCs elected:		
			Con
			Lib
			Nat
"We were hearing, a short time ago, about the Conservative Party and its underperformance thus far compared to the polls. However, the Conservatives have topped the polls in this first Ohio district, in the north-east of the state on the coast of Lake Erie. Laura Trevelyan is in the nearby city of Cleveland, which paid host to the inaugural Conservative Party Convention recently. Laura, can you shed any light on these results?"

Trevelyan looked uncomfortable, standing in front of what was probably a green-screened shot of a large sign reading 'CLEVELAND' in italics, with the dusky, lit-up skyline of the city behind that. "Well, Andrew, the Conservatives are co-led by John Kasich, the popular incumbent Governor. Mr Kasich actually sought the old presidency way back in 2000, but he was only a Congressman back then and did not get very far."

"Quite a contrast to the new system, in which the most powerful offices of state will be occupied by Members of Congress."

"Yes. Well, although Mr Obama's new constitutional settlement has the stated aim of trying to move away from individualistic politics in favour of party platforms, it's clear that personal votes still mean something here in Ohio."

"Indeed. Now Ohio historically was an absolutely crucial swing state - they said 'as goes Ohio, so goes the nation' - to the point that many presidents and vice-presidents were recruited from here. Do you think Ohio will still forecast results elsewhere?"

"At the risk of being proved wrong, Andrew - I would say no, for that same personal factor we just discussed. But remember, the polls have not yet closed out west. It's possible that a good Conservative performance here might change the decisions of voters in right-wing-voting states out in the Plains and so on."

"I see. Well, thank you Laura, and we'll come back to you later..."

Rich (BB code):
	MD-05		
	Lib          	160,176   	44.1%
	Prog          	72,933    	20.1%
	Nat          	67,822    	18.7%
	Fus          	48,994    	13.5%
	All          	13,693    	3.8%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	363,617
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib
			Prog
"Another Massachusetts seat. This one is north of Boston and takes in the city of Cambridge, home to the famed universities Harvard and MIT. So in some ways it's similar to the Cambridge we know from back home."

"It's also home to Lexington, where the American Revolutionary War began with the famous 'shot heard 'round the world', well, famous in America, most people back home haven't heard of it. But we can see that it's dominated by the left-wing vote and the Liberals in particular."

"Even here, though, the Nationals weren't that far off taking the third seat..."

Rich (BB code):
	TN-02		
	Con          	80,104    	27.6%
	Nat          	68,587    	23.6%
	Lib          	45,669    	15.7%
	Prog          	40,545    	14%
	Cst          	40,265    	13.9%
	All          	15,023    	5.2%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	290,193
			
	MCs elected:		
			Con
			Nat
			Lib
"Now, that's interesting. This is our first result from Tennessee, a state in the same polling time region as Ohio. And once again, the Conservatives have topped the polls here. Perhaps the party's success in this region is not only due to a personal vote from John Kasich, as we just heard."

"Tennessee is a state we in the UK mainly know for its music connections, but its political history is also interesting. The second district is in the eastern, mountainous part of the state, and unlike many states the numbering of districts has remained fairly consistent geographically over time. With that in mind, it's remarkable that this district has not elected a Democrat since before the US Civil War, reflecting the divide over, um, race issues at the time."

Rich (BB code):
	NC-01		
	Lib          	153,795   	43.4%
	Prog          	85,790    	24.2%
	Cst          	43,240    	12.2%
	Nat          	40,970    	11.6%
	Con          	23,890    	6.7%
	All          	7,019     	2%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	354,704
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Lib
"Back to the east coast states with North Carolina."

"And actually the first district is quite close to that coast, in the north-east of the state. Now North Carolina is one of only a few states to actually redraw its boundaries for this election, but it was due to pre-existing factors rather than anything to do with the new voting system. Until now the boundaries were heavily gerrymandered, we'll discuss more about that shortly, but now they are less...well, squiggly."

"Is that a technical term? Regardless, this is a heavily left district for the region, and splits between the Liberals and Progressives."

Rich (BB code):
	DE-00		
	Lib          	142,314   	32.2%
	Nat          	114,854   	26%
	Prog          	93,289    	21.1%
	Fus          	70,273    	15.9%
	All          	20,860    	4.7%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	441,590
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Nat
			Prog
"Now, this is something quite different. Delaware is a small east coast state, perhaps best known nowadays for being home to Vice-President Joe Biden. As such a small state, it is only entitled to one three-member district, which we've named number zero."

"Isn't it more usual to call it AL for at-large?"

"Yes, but we've used that for something else. You see, in addition to all the districts comprising a state, there are two extra MCs awarded, which correspond to the two Senators under the old constitution which were equally assigned to each state. I think we slightly misstated matters earlier - rather than being awarded in any way proportionately, these extra MCs are simply both awarded to whichever party wins the most votes across the whole state. The intention is to provide a top-up reward for coming first, as we've seen many cases where the vote splits between three parties despite one being substantially ahead - the vagaries of a PR system with small districts."

"I see. So in the case of Delaware, as there was only one district to start with, we don't have to add multiple districts' votes up, now we already know the outcome of the top-up seats?"

"Yes...both going to the Liberal candidates."

Rich (BB code):
	Delaware at-large		
	Lib          	142,314   	32.2%
	Nat          	114,854   	26%
	Prog          	93,289    	21.1%
	Fus          	70,273    	15.9%
	All          	20,860    	4.7%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	441,590
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib
"Of course, it was redundant to state the figures again in this case, but for most states we'll be waiting for all the districts to come in before the numbers can be summed. And here's a map..."

MDNJDEDC 4results.png

"...that's a bit of a wonky map, isn't it?"

"Well, the graphics boys - and girls, of course - had to sort of smush together all the states that are in between Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York to make them fit. But the important part is that you can see the extra Delaware seats on the little inset map with the statewide results. Eventually we'll see those filled in for all the states, even those with many districts.

"...Eventually."

Rich (BB code):
	FL-03		
	Nat          	97,943    	27.8%
	Lib          	75,503    	21.5%
	Prog          	65,859    	18.7%
	Con          	55,541    	15.8%
	Cst          	43,995    	12.5%
	All          	12,848    	3.7%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	351,688
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Prog
"Another result from Florida. This is a large district in the north of the state - again, not near anywhere most of us will have heard of. In fact...a voice in my ear is telling them that it's larger than the whole of North East England, though it has only a fraction of the population, of course."

"Wales is more traditional, you'll be getting hate mail from the Geordies. Other northeastern tribes are available."

Rich (BB code):
	NC-10		
	Nat          	94,520    	26.6%
	Cst          	82,597    	23.3%
	Prog          	66,180    	18.6%
	Lib          	63,052    	17.8%
	Con          	39,673    	11.2%
	All          	9,088     	2.6%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	355,111
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Cst
			Prog
"Back to North Carolina, and the tenth district takes in part of the state's south-west. This was considered quite a right-wing district and we can see that two of the seats have gone to the Nationals and to the Constitution Party - again a trend of that party seeing success in this state, at the expense of the Conservatives. But the same is also true of the Progressives, who have leapfrogged the Liberals to take the third seat."

"Quite remarkable, when most analysts had written them off outside of New England and the Pacific Northwest - which we won't get to for quite some time!"

Rich (BB code):
	VA-06		
	Nat          	78,804    	22.8%
	Con          	75,299    	21.8%
	Lib          	63,563    	18.4%
	Prog          	57,033    	16.5%
	Cst          	52,200    	15.1%
	All          	18,601    	5.4%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	345,500
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Con
			Lib
"And that's Virginia's sixth district, right along the Appalachian mountains, bordering West Virginia, which is a separate state. Quite a right-wing district again, and once again the Nationals come first, but this time with the Conservatives in second."

"I've been speaking to our analysts, and one point our American experts keep coming back to is how different things can be from state to state. The old party organisations were always state-based, and so it could have very different results if some of the top local Republican people chose the Constitution Party over the Conservatives, say, and took their activists and donors with them."

"That does make sense - but we were told over and over during the campaign that the Nationals had been treated as a pariah by people like that, and yet..."

"Anyway, time for another map!"

Virginias 3results.png

"...will you stop doing that? At least wait till we've got a decent number of results in..."

Rich (BB code):
	KY-06		
	Con          	68,687    	20.6%
	Lib          	66,025    	19.8%
	Prog          	65,246    	19.6%
	Cst          	58,593    	17.6%
	Nat          	54,861    	16.5%
	All          	19,600    	5.9%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	333,012
			
	MCs elected:		
			Con
			Lib
			Prog
"And I believe that's our first result from Kentucky. Very close between the top three."

"Kentucky, another place we in the UK mainly know through music...well, that and fried chicken, of course. Now the sixth district, which contains the state capital Frankfort with an O, was one of the more Democratic-friendly areas in the state - though that's not saying much, as Kentucky has strongly swung against the Democrats over the past few years. Nonetheless, even though the Conservatives topped the polls, two out of the three seats have gone to left-wing parties, showing that residual vote."

"Which was part of the intention of Mr Obama's new system, to ensure that a large minority vote - as in a party in the minority, not a BAME vote, I mean - did not go unrepresented."

Rich (BB code):
	OH-12		
	Con          	124,586   	32.2%
	Lib          	84,989    	21.9%
	Prog          	77,256    	19.9%
	Nat          	51,524    	13.3%
	Cst          	29,774    	7.7%
	All          	19,151    	4.9%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	387,279
			
	MCs elected:		
			Con
			Lib
			Prog
"Our second Ohio result, from the same general area in polling closure time terms, but not that close...so quite interesting that the result is actually identical to that Kentucky district."

"Even though the top three are much less close to each other, but that's the vagaries of the small-district PR system we discussed. There is talk of this being revised next time for larger multi-member districts, but that might require further constitutional amendments."

Rich (BB code):
	SC-03		
	Nat          	70,312    	24.7%
	Con          	64,633    	22.7%
	Lib          	58,648    	20.6%
	Cst          	55,594    	19.6%
	Prog          	23,879    	8.4%
	All          	11,282    	4%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	284,348
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Con
			Lib
"And, still filling in the east coast, that's South Carolina's third district, in the west of the state - what is known as the Piedmont to locals. The Conservatives are jockeying close with the Nationals to top the polls, with the Liberals in third."

"It'll be interesting to see which party comes top and gets the bonus seats here - it's not entirely obvious from the results we've had so far."

"No indeed. And here's a map!"

Carolinas 8results.png

"All right - that's enough maps for now, or you'll become insufferable. I understand we have our audience panels to speak to, but before that, it's probably better if we discuss the elephant in the room - or, rather, the party we were told would be a fringe group, but in many places seems to be in the driving seat of the former Republican elephant, as it were."

"Oh, that's quite good."

"Thank you. Katty, can you tell us about the origins of the National Party?"
 
7

Thande

Conſiderable Perſon
Published by SLP
The cameras focused on Katty Kay once again. "When it became clear that Mr Obama's ambitious reforms could not be stopped, there were many commentators who thought that the American two-party system was, nonetheless, too entrenched to see a true multi-party system form." To her side, imagery of the former status quo appeared: the silhouette of the continental United States, divided into a blue half and a red half with a jagged fault-line down the middle. Each half had a faint, translucent white-grey silhouette of a donkey and an elephant, respectively, pointing towards each other as though facing off. "Perhaps some nuance might appear, the internal factions within the parties might become true parties, but the overall situation would be the same...

"However, this impression was rudely shattered in the heady summer of last year, 2015, which seems very long ago now - when the press were called to the lobby of Trump Tower in New York City..."

Rich (BB code):
	FL-25		
	Lib          	92,255    	34.9%
	Con          	72,277    	27.3%
	Nat          	40,226    	15.2%
	Prog          	34,413    	13%
	Cst          	18,815    	7.1%
	All          	6,366     	2.4%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	264,353
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Con
			Lib
"Sorry to interrupt you there, Katty. That was one of Florida's districts with the most Cuban exiles, just like Conservative co-leader Marco Rubio, and perhaps he has played a part in getting their vote out in this, his home state."

Unruffled, Kay nodded. "As I was saying, Mr Trump's announcement..."

The screen zoomed in to show footage that, though less than two years old, seemed to carry a debatably mythic quality to it, like a contested Star Wars sequel. As Kay had said, the gilded lobby of Trump Tower was filled with the assembled press. A golden escalator, like some prosperity gospel loony's image of Jacob's Ladder, occupied centre stage. At its feet sat a lectern backed by American flags, on it an orange clenched-fist logo and a slogan reading 'FOR THE NATION'.

The BBC archive reel had obviously cut out interstitial material, awkward pauses, and the paramedics being called at one point. Still, the audience watched the same familiar images they had witnessed so many months ago. Trump, tie firmly taped into place, his debatable hair like the prow of a battleship, descended the escalator like something from a Ferengi religious text. The image was barely spoilt when he tripped halfway down, fell head over heels into a railing and over the side, only to be saved by his snagged suspenders and catapulted into the air. He bounced, with surprising parkour athleticism, on a horizontal flagpole and landed with a perfect, if unintentional, Fosbury flop straight into a gigantic taco bowl next to the lectern.

Delicious guacamole spattered the entire rank of nonplussed journalists like Vulcan blood; the NYT correspondent thoughtfully put his finger in his mouth and sucked. The impact force had shattered the edible tortilla shell, and Trump dragged himself from the wreckage, covered in cream cheese and salsa. "That," he pronounced, "was a bigly Mexican conspiracy! I love Club Penguin!" Confused applause.

More flashes of edits from the BBC archive team, so the viewers didn't get to see Trump getting licked clean by a group of conspiracy theorists, nor him actually stepping over to the golden statue of Lady Columbia wearing a g-string and not much else, only the line "I'm going to grab this country by the [BEEP]." They also cut out the line where he misidentified her as Liberty and then unfavourably compared the statue's attractiveness to that of his daughter.

"Obama wants to change this country. Well, let me tell you, this is a great country, it's the best country. And we're gonna change that. This will be a new party. I've done new parties before. The Reform Party. That was a great party. Ross Perot. Great guy. Little guy. Great little guy. But this will be the best party, 'cause it'll be Donald J. Trump's party. The best. I make great deals. I make great parties. The best parties. National Party. National. That's a word. I know words. I have the best words. And this will be the best party. It'll be great." Despite the BBC editor's best efforts, there was only so much repetition that could be cut out. "The Chinese and the Mexicans. They're gonna be jealous of this party, because it's the best party. Lemme tell you, when we get to Washington, I tell you what we're gonna talk about doing."

Trump angrily beat his fist on the lectern in time with his words. "We're gonna talk about building a wall. We're gonna talk about stopping the Mexicans from comin' here. We're gonna talk about stopping the Chinese from takin' our industry. We're gonna talk about makin' America great again. At no point will we ever do any of these things. Obama is a scam. Obama spends half his time playin' golf. I'm gonna get that percent higher. Belgium did 9/11. And let me tlel you, when you go home tonight and sleep with your wives, at that moment of sweet climax, I want you to picture my face. Thank you, and may God bless the United States of America." More confused applause. The screen froze on the image of Trump's self-satisfied face, slightly spoiled by the piece of lettuce still hanging from one ear.

Rich (BB code):
	ME-02		
	Cst          	94,490    	26.8%
	Prog          	94,288    	26.8%
	Nat          	56,331    	16%
	Lib          	50,674    	14.4%
	Con          	30,348    	8.6%
	All          	26,211    	7.4%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	352,341
			
	MCs elected:		
			Cst
			Prog
			Nat
"Thank you Katty, one moment, and that was the second district in Maine, the rural northern one. Speaking of Mr Trump's National Party, there was some polling suggesting it might do well here in Maine, but actually - quite surprisingly, I think - Mr Cruz's Constitution Party has come first, just barely ahead of the Progressives, and the Nationals are actually worse off than they are in much of New England."

"Maybe all the National activists were eaten by Stephen King."

"Maybe. It does mean we can also calculate the party that came top across Maine, and therefore the two top-up seats..."

Rich (BB code):
	Maine at-large		
	Prog          	230,303   	30.9%
	Cst          	157,285   	21.1%
	Lib          	127,432   	17.1%
	Nat          	110,422   	14.8%
	Con          	67,885    	9.1%
	All          	52,364    	7%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	745,692
			
	MCs elected:		
			Prog
			Prog
"And the Progressives take both by quite a margin. The Progressives are certainly performing well in New England. Perhaps you can tell us about them next, Katty."

"Perhaps, if I manage to finish anything without being interrupted," Kay said firmly but not waspishly. "Anyway, as I was saying, Mr Trump's announcement there - though you could be forgiven for, er, not actually realising what he was announcing - heralded the founding of a new political party. While it mostly drew on Republican activists and themes, the Nationals, even more so than the Progressives, have broken the mould of the two-party system. The Nationals are populist, anti-immigration, critical of free trade and the neoliberal global consensus."

"In that respect, can they be viewed as another arm of the anti-establishment and anti-immigration populist movements sweeping Europe?" Neil asked, doubtless prompting several Independence Party voters to send him death threats.

"Perhaps. There are unique aspects stemming from American political culture, however. Mr Trump has shocked the former Republican Party's establishment by effectively slaying many Republican sacred cows whilst having many former Republican voters flock to his banner, as well as some traditional Democrats who have grown disquieted by the party's focus on free-trade liberalism. This is not to say Mr Trump has not moved some of his own positions to meet those voters, such as abandoning his former opposition to assault weapons and his hostility to parts of the Republican media establishment, such as Fox News. Nonetheless, the National Party is accused of being a personality cult by its opponents, drawing on activists fanatically devoted to Mr Trump's message."

"Er, from that video...exactly what is Mr Trump's message?"

"They won't say."

Rich (BB code):
	SC-02		
	Lib          	83,711    	26.8%
	Con          	65,593    	21%
	Nat          	60,720    	19.4%
	Cst          	49,672    	15.9%
	Prog          	36,880    	11.8%
	All          	16,049    	5.1%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	312,625
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Con
			Nat
"I'm sorry...back to the South there, South Carolina. Now that's interesting. Jeremy?"

"Yes Andrew. This district was Republican-held before, and the Conservatives and Nationals are jockeying for the former Republican vote, with the Constitution Party involved too. That actually means that the Liberals have come out on top."

"But it does mean there are two right-wing MCs and only one left-wing elected, no?"

"Correct, but as we just saw in Maine, it also matters which party comes top across the whole state. If the right is so divided in South Carolina, we could see its statewide seats going to the Democrats - something which has been unthinkable since that party was, erm, the situation was different," Vine said diplomatically.

Rich (BB code):
	FL-09		
	Lib          	131,159   	36.8%
	Nat          	65,246    	18.3%
	Prog          	64,209    	18%
	Con          	54,904    	15.4%
	Cst          	29,201    	8.2%
	All          	11,810    	3.3%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	356,530
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib
			Nat
"Florida again, but here Mr Rubio's Conservatives do not seem to have as much home-field advantage, to use the appropriate American phrase?"

"Ah, well, this district is quite different. It includes half of Orlando, which our viewers at home will know is the only important bit of Florida, where all the theme parks are. So two seats to the Liberals, and Mr Trump's Nationals get the third seat. Maybe people who want talking anthropomorphic mice to all go back to California."

"Don't try to be clever, Jeremy."

Rich (BB code):
	OH-02		
	Con          	97,617    	27.5%
	Lib          	78,912    	22.2%
	Nat          	71,586    	20.2%
	Prog          	61,861    	17.4%
	Cst          	28,675    	8.1%
	All          	16,218    	4.6%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	354,868
			
	MCs elected:		
			Con
			Lib
			Nat
"More infighting on the right, this time in the south of Ohio. It appears Mr Kasich's personal vote may have played a role, just like Mr Rubio's, yet the third seat nonetheless goes to the Nationals once more."

Rich (BB code):
	PA-12		
	Nat          	125,686   	34.6%
	Fus          	87,319    	24%
	Lib          	75,446    	20.8%
	Prog          	62,036    	17.1%
	All          	12,652    	3.5%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	363,139
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Fus
			Lib
"And another result from Pennsylvania. This is an area north of the city of Pittsburgh. As a reminder, Pennsylvania is one of only a few states which redraw its districts for this election, so we are really in the unknown here. The Nationals are well ahead, but the Fusionists have managed to pull a seat out here. And here's the map..."

Pennsylvania 4results.png

"Some early successes for the National Party here in what is usually considered a 'blue state' formerly in the Democratic column, there will be concerns over whether Mr Trump's message about industry has cut into what is known as the 'rust belt'."

"What wonderfully exotic political terms the Americans have, can you imagine if someone tried to import them into British politics and ended up looking really stupid? Ah, never mind."

Rich (BB code):
	NC-09		
	Lib          	94,354    	27.4%
	Nat          	82,456    	24%
	Cst          	68,994    	20.1%
	Prog          	52,718    	15.3%
	Con          	35,525    	10.3%
	All          	9,842     	2.9%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	343,888
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Nat
			Cst
"And that's another seat from the Carolinas, this time the North, where the Constitution Party is again polling more strongly than expected. But, again, note that the Liberals are on top in what was a Republican district. Will that be significant for the statewide vote?"

Rich (BB code):
	VT-00		
	Prog          	154,116   	48.9%
	Con          	51,454    	16.3%
	All          	41,132    	13.1%
	Nat          	33,848    	10.7%
	Lib          	24,457    	7.8%
	Cst          	10,060    	3.2%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	315,067
			
	MCs elected:		
			Prog
			Prog
			Con
"And...well, that is a result for the books. Vermont is one of the smallest, most rural, and most liberal states in the Union...or should I say most left-wing. This is, of course, the home state of Bernie Sanders, leader of the Progressive Party, who was formerly an independent left-wing voice in Washington for many years."

"Yes, it was here that the Liberals conceded some months ago that the Progressives might win a seat...as in, one seat in the whole of the nation, Mrs Clinton is reported to have commented. The reality looks quite different, a lot of water under the bridge since then."

"Indeed. The Progressives have almost half the voteshare and two of the three seats, with the establishment Liberals way down in fifth place; vox pops here expressed a particular dislike for them. Interestingly, the third seat has gone to the Conservatives, perhaps reflecting Vermont's liberal Republican tradition--"

"Americans use 'liberal' to mean too many bloody things."

"--yes - and the Alliance were not far behind. Supposedly, according to our correspondent there, because they spread an inaccurate rumour that a vote for them was a vote for Mr Sanders."

"Remarkable. And as Vermont has only one district, I believe you can also fill in the statewide result with the same vote..."

Rich (BB code):
	Vermont at-large		
	Prog          	154,116   	48.9%
	Con          	51,454    	16.3%
	All          	41,132    	13.1%
	Nat          	33,848    	10.7%
	Lib          	24,457    	7.8%
	Cst          	10,060    	3.2%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	315,067
			
	MCs elected:		
			Prog
			Prog
"Same results, of course, which means the Progressives get the two top-up seats too. Four full seats out of such a small state. It's greener than a Pepe meme of Caroline Lucas doing the two Kermits stare with the Dat Boi unicycling frog."

"...what does that mean?"

"I don't know, it's just something a teenager said to me."

Rich (BB code):
	FL-10		
	Lib          	123,035   	39%
	Prog          	71,899    	22.8%
	Nat          	51,076    	16.2%
	Con          	37,403    	11.9%
	Cst          	21,583    	6.8%
	All          	10,615    	3.4%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	315,611
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Lib
"Um, well, this is the other Orlando district in Florida, the important one, and you can tell it used to vote Democratic - two seats go to the Liberals and one to the Progressives, none to the right."

"Surely this is the happiest place on earth."

Rich (BB code):
	SC-05		
	Lib          	90,668    	29.6%
	Nat          	70,460    	23%
	Con          	56,396    	18.4%
	Cst          	48,535    	15.9%
	Prog          	28,123    	9.2%
	All          	12,018    	3.9%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	306,200
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Nat
			Con
"Well, I don't know if the people of this district would agree. Once again, another former Republican-voting part of South Carolina, but look at that split. Again, will the Liberals actually top the polls across the state?"

Rich (BB code):
	IN-06		
	Nat          	116,701   	38.7%
	Fus          	87,428    	29%
	Prog          	44,075    	14.6%
	Lib          	38,423    	12.7%
	All          	14,897    	4.9%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	301,524
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Fus
			Nat
"And that's our first result from Indiana. Indiana's sixth district, in the eastern part of the state. This is the former district of Governor Mike Pence, who we heard from earlier, when he was a Congressman."

"And it's very right-wing indeed, that's almost seventy percent of the vote going to either the Nationals or the Fusionists as they fight for supremacy!"

"Quite. Well, here's the map of Ohio and Indiana as these results come in..."

Ohio and Indiana 4results.png

"Well. As we just saw that remarkable result for the Progressives in Vermont, perhaps now Katty can tell us about that party in turn?"
 

rosa

Well-known member
The BBC archive reel had obviously cut out interstitial material, awkward pauses, and the paramedics being called at one point. Still, the audience watched the same familiar images they had witnessed so many months ago. Trump, tie firmly taped into place, his debatable hair like the prow of a battleship, descended the escalator like something from a Ferengi religious text. The image was barely spoilt when he tripped halfway down, fell head over heels into a railing and over the side, only to be saved by his snagged suspenders and catapulted into the air. He bounced, with surprising parkour athleticism, on a horizontal flagpole and landed with a perfect, if unintentional, Fosbury flop straight into a gigantic taco bowl next to the lectern.

Delicious guacamole spattered the entire rank of nonplussed journalists like Vulcan blood; the NYT correspondent thoughtfully put his finger in his mouth and sucked. The impact force had shattered the edible tortilla shell, and Trump dragged himself from the wreckage, covered in cream cheese and salsa. "That," he pronounced, "was a bigly Mexican conspiracy! I love Club Penguin!" Confused applause.
This is the best thing I've read on this site ever
 

Lilitou

AHC: What if I was born a girl?
Published by SLP
Location
Prezzagrad
Pronouns
she/her :)
"What wonderfully exotic political terms the Americans have, can you imagine if someone tried to import them into British politics and ended up looking really stupid? Ah, never mind."
hahahaha hahaha haha ha

ha

Trump is almost beyond parody, but you just about managed there.

South Carolina's looking very interesting there, and Indiana coming in a conservative as expected.
I know it's all played for laughs, but I quite like the sheer absurdity of it. In a way, it works to put us back in 2016, when political commentators had to contend not just with the fact that Trump was not fizzling out, but that this utter loon was leading the primary and already a populist figure.
 

Walpurgisnacht

homicide in a pork sausage
Location
Banned from the forum
Pronouns
He/Him
Trump angrily beat his fist on the lectern in time with his words. "We're gonna talk about building a wall. We're gonna talk about stopping the Mexicans from comin' here. We're gonna talk about stopping the Chinese from takin' our industry. We're gonna talk about makin' America great again. At no point will we ever do any of these things. Obama is a scam. Obama spends half his time playin' golf. I'm gonna get that percent higher. Belgium did 9/11. And let me tlel you, when you go home tonight and sleep with your wives, at that moment of sweet climax, I want you to picture my face. Thank you, and may God bless the United States of America."
OPINION: Today Was The Day Donald Trump Finally Became Presidential
--A. Rightwing Commentator
 

Caprice

Well-known member
Location
Earth
Pronouns
he/him
Hmm, the Alliance performance in Vermont gives credence to the idea that it's based on third-party (maybe minor candidate?) totals.
 

Wolfram

The possum is not OK. Neither are we.
Location
Space City USA
Pronouns
he/him
I wonder if we'll have any districts where all three seats go to the same party. The closest one we've had so far is NY-05, which was only a few points off if I'm doing the math right - I think it would almost have to be somewhere like that with both an extremely high Liberal voteshare and a relatively low Progressive voteshare, so probably some very Black or Hispanic urban district, since I feel like pretty much any right-wing district is going to have strong numbers for at least two of the three parties. But who knows!
 
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