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Airesien's Test Thread

The 2022 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 28 April 2022 to elect all 707 members of the House of Commons. The election saw the Liberal Party of Great Britain return to power for the first time since 2008, with Sir Edward Davey becoming the first Liberal Prime Minister since Nicholas Clegg. The election signalled the end of three straight election victories for the Unionist & Conservative Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and saw Prime Minister Sir Graham Brady leave Downing Street after fourteen years.

Opinion polling before the election suggested the Liberals had a consistent yet small lead over the Unionists but there was a lack of certainty over which party would emerge with more seats and therefore have, by convention, the ability to try and form a minority administration if neither major party won the 354 seats needed for an overall majority. The memories of the 2017 election, where the Liberals had led in the opinion polls throughout the campaign but fell way short of the Unionists on polling day, continued to play on the mind of both parties as well as the political commentariat and the pollsters, who had adapted their methodology accordingly.

The election campaign focused primarily around the slowing British economy, which risked dipping into recession if predictions from experts were to be believed, as well as Britain's military involvement in Rhodesia and its ongoing relationship with the European Community. The latter issue grew in importance throughout the campaign after Davey pledged that a future Liberal government would seek a bespoke trade deal and closer alignment to Europe, whilst Brady and the Unionists decried the Opposition's "surrender to the continent". The Government instead continued to adopt a continued independent trade policy and a 'transatlantacist' geopolitical outlook, including closer relations with Canada, the United States and the Commonwealth.

The Liberals would go on to win 371 seats, a majority of thirty-five, their largest majority since the 1996 election. The election saw continued demographic trends towards both major parties, with the Liberals winning large majorities in urban areas, Greater London and the 'Celtic Fringe' in rural Scotland and Wales. The Unionists meanwhile saw their dominance over southern and rural England expand despite the overall defeat. This election marked the first time, for example, that the Liberals won a majority in the House of Commons without winning any seats in rural Devon, Dorset or Somerset. The UK's third party, the Social Democratic and Labour Party, also made gains, especially in London where the party saw its strength grow from one seat to five seats. With Rushanara Ali taking charge of the Social Democrats, the election marked the first time that a major political party was led by a female leader, as well as the first time that a major party was led by an ethnic minority leader. Its haul of 24 seats was its best return since the 2005 election.

Elsewhere, the SNP held onto their sole seat of the Western Isles with a reduced majority, but failed to make in-roads anywhere else as most of their limited voter base instead opted for the Liberals, whilst Plaid Cymru suffered a similar fate, holding on to Cardiganshire but failing to win any of their other target seats in western Wales. The Irish Labour Party held onto its one seat in Belfast East, whilst eight Irish Nationalist MPs were elected but, as ever, refused to take their seats in the Commons.


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Davey or Khan? I'll take either over Brady.

Details like the Liberals losing their West Country heartlands but still winning overall are good; plausible realignments happening even when the old yellow-blue duopoly continues.
 
Blair secures historic third term with slim majority
BBC News, Friday 6 May 2005, 11:37 BST

Tony Blair has won a historic third term in government for Labour but with a drastically reduced majority.


Mr Blair pledged to respond "sensibly and wisely" to the result, which the BBC predicts will see his majority cut from 167 in 2001 to just 20.

The Conservatives have mounted a strong challenge, making strong gains on their 2001 result, but they remain around 100 seats behind Labour.

The Lib Dems failed to make good on their hopes of a breakthrough, with the party expected to win around 50 seats, around the same as they won in 2001.

Mr Blair, who celebrates his 52nd birthday on Friday, said it was clear that "the British people wanted to return a Labour government but with a reduced majority".

He told supporters at a celebration in the National Portrait Gallery in London: "We have got to listen to the people and respond wisely and sensibly."

Mr Blair and his wife Cherie left Downing Street at 1100 BST for a 30 minute audience with the Queen at Buckingham Palace - the private meeting where she asks him to form a new government.

Earlier, Mr Blair told party activists in his Sedgefield constituency that Labour, which looks set to have won 35% of the vote on a 62% turnout, had to "focus on the things that matter" such as the NHS, jobs and law and order.

He added: "I know too that Iraq has been a divisive issue in this country but I hope now that we can unite again and look to the future - there and here."

The result writes a new chapter in British political history, with Margaret Thatcher the only other post-war prime minister to have won three successive general elections.

Mr Blair is the only Labour leader to have won three elections in a row but his margin of victory is barely a tenth of what it was in the Labour landslides of 1997 and 2001 - and he has the lowest share of the vote for a ruling party in modern times.

Conservative leader Michael Portillo acknowledged Labour's win but said that Mr Blair had been rejected by the British public and suggested it was time for him to depart.

"I am proud of the campaign we have fought. We have taken a stand on the things that really do matter to the people of this country and they have sent Mr Blair a message - it's time to go," said Mr Portillo.

He added the Conservative result was a "significant step towards our recovery" and pledged to stay on as leader at his count in Kensington, adding that he "had work to do".

Provisional figures suggest that 22% of those eligible to vote backed Labour - the lowest figure they have received at any post-war election apart from 1983 when the figure was 20.6%.

Turnout is expected to be up around 3%, mainly due to big increases in marginal seats.

The Conservative revival was predominantly based in England, with the party expected to win a plurality of English votes, and the party saw its vote share increase significantly in the capital, where the party won a number of key marginals. Portillo's party won back his old seat in Enfield Southgate, as well as Baroness Thatcher's old seat in Finchley.

The party also did well against the Lib Dems, taking a number of seats from the party including North Cornwall, Newbury, Somerton and Frome and Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Outside of England, Portillo's party doubled their representation in Scotland with the capture of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, and also won four seats in Wales, up from zero in 2001.

Charles Kennedy's party did best against Labour, gaining Rochdale, Oldham East & Saddleworth, Birmingham Hall Green and Watford.

But the Lib Dems failed to achieve much with their "decapitation" strategy, with all of their main Conservative targets retaining their seats with increased majorities.

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Blair secures historic third term with slim majority
BBC News, Friday 6 May 2005, 11:37 BST

Tony Blair has won a historic third term in government for Labour but with a drastically reduced majority.


Mr Blair pledged to respond "sensibly and wisely" to the result, which the BBC predicts will see his majority cut from 167 in 2001 to just 20.

The Conservatives have mounted a strong challenge, making strong gains on their 2001 result, but they remain around 100 seats behind Labour.

The Lib Dems failed to make good on their hopes of a breakthrough, with the party expected to win around 50 seats, around the same as they won in 2001.

Mr Blair, who celebrates his 52nd birthday on Friday, said it was clear that "the British people wanted to return a Labour government but with a reduced majority".

He told supporters at a celebration in the National Portrait Gallery in London: "We have got to listen to the people and respond wisely and sensibly."

Mr Blair and his wife Cherie left Downing Street at 1100 BST for a 30 minute audience with the Queen at Buckingham Palace - the private meeting where she asks him to form a new government.

Earlier, Mr Blair told party activists in his Sedgefield constituency that Labour, which looks set to have won 35% of the vote on a 62% turnout, had to "focus on the things that matter" such as the NHS, jobs and law and order.

He added: "I know too that Iraq has been a divisive issue in this country but I hope now that we can unite again and look to the future - there and here."

The result writes a new chapter in British political history, with Margaret Thatcher the only other post-war prime minister to have won three successive general elections.

Mr Blair is the only Labour leader to have won three elections in a row but his margin of victory is barely a tenth of what it was in the Labour landslides of 1997 and 2001 - and he has the lowest share of the vote for a ruling party in modern times.

Conservative leader Michael Portillo acknowledged Labour's win but said that Mr Blair had been rejected by the British public and suggested it was time for him to depart.

"I am proud of the campaign we have fought. We have taken a stand on the things that really do matter to the people of this country and they have sent Mr Blair a message - it's time to go," said Mr Portillo.

He added the Conservative result was a "significant step towards our recovery" and pledged to stay on as leader at his count in Kensington, adding that he "had work to do".

Provisional figures suggest that 22% of those eligible to vote backed Labour - the lowest figure they have received at any post-war election apart from 1983 when the figure was 20.6%.

Turnout is expected to be up around 3%, mainly due to big increases in marginal seats.

The Conservative revival was predominantly based in England, with the party expected to win a plurality of English votes, and the party saw its vote share increase significantly in the capital, where the party won a number of key marginals. Portillo's party won back his old seat in Enfield Southgate, as well as Baroness Thatcher's old seat in Finchley.

The party also did well against the Lib Dems, taking a number of seats from the party including North Cornwall, Newbury, Somerton and Frome and Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Outside of England, Portillo's party doubled their representation in Scotland with the capture of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, and also won four seats in Wales, up from zero in 2001.

Charles Kennedy's party did best against Labour, gaining Rochdale, Oldham East & Saddleworth, Birmingham Hall Green and Watford.

But the Lib Dems failed to achieve much with their "decapitation" strategy, with all of their main Conservative targets retaining their seats with increased majorities.

Very interesting; we rarely get to see much of a successful Portillo beyond 2005 or even 2001 so I would be very keen to see you follow this up.
 
The 1992 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 9 April 1992, to elect 651 members to the House of Commons. The election resulted in the first hung parliament since 1974, with no party receiving the 326 seats required for an overall majority. The Labour Party, led by Neil Kinnock, emerged as the largest party with 307 seats, 19 short of an overall majority and 9 seats ahead of the Conservative Party, led by John Major.

John Major had won the Conservative Party leadership election in November 1990 following the resignation of Margaret Thatcher. During his first term leading up to the 1992 election he oversaw the British involvement in the Gulf War, introduced legislation to replace the unpopular Community Charge with Council Tax, and signed the Maastricht Treaty. Britain was sliding into its second recession in a decade at the time of Major's appointment.

Opinion polls in the run-up to the election had suggested that it would end in a hung parliament or a narrow Labour majority. Despite the exit poll projecting that Labour would win an overall majority, Labour won just a handful of seats more than Conservatives by the end of the night. Both parties entered negotiations with the Liberal Democrats and other minor parties in order to seek power. Combined, both Labour and the Lib Dems would have enough for an overall majority, whilst a centre-right government led by the Conservatives would need the support of the Lib Dems as well as a third party, such as the Ulster Unionists.

Negotiations between Labour and the Lib Dems were more positive than between the Conservatives and Lib Dems, with Major unwilling or unable to countenace many Lib Dem policies, such as devolution to Scotland and Wales and consideration of electoral reform. On the other hand, Labour's negotiating team, led by Deputy Leader Roy Hattersley and Shadow Employment Secretary Tony Blair, swiftly drew up a cooperation agreement with Ashdown's party. The agreement was not the basis for a coalition, but instead set out a set of shared policies upon which both parties could agree as the foundations of a new minority Labour government. Whilst the Lib Dems did not enter government, Ashdown and his deputy Alan Beith would be part of a government-led commission into electoral reform. Just six days after the election, Ashdown and Kinnock announced an agreement had been reached for a confidence and supply arrangement between the two parties.

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In the aftermath of the 1992 election defeat, John Major had taken soundings and considered trying to stay on as leader, suggesting that the Lab-Lib Pact that had turfed him out of Number 10 could crumble at any moment. Nonetheless, it became clear in the days between negotiating with Paddy Ashdown and the confirmation that for the first time in 13 years the Conservatives would be heading for the Opposition benches that his position was untenable. The defeat was not as bad as it could have been, but it was a defeat, and Major had lost Thatcher's majority of over one hundred, converting it to a deficit in one campaign - even loyal MPs received soundings from his camp that he would try to remain in charge of the party like a bucket of cold sick.

The ensuing contest was swiftly arranged for the second week of May. Michael Heseltine, one of Major's most loyal colleagues in the cabinet (despite personal concerns from Major that Heseltine was seeking revenge for the 1990 contest) looked to go one better than two years prior. Representing the liberal side of the party, he received strong support from the likes of Ken Clarke and David Hunt, but was increasingly at odds with a party very much moving towards Euroscepticism and a few wondered if, despite his experience, he would be able to lead the party effectively. He was challenged by the former Trade and Industry Secretary Peter Lilley, the Thatcherite candidate who had the backing of the Iron Lady, who pledged to establish a hard line on Europe. In the middle of the two sides were two moderate Scots - Scottish Secretary Ian Lang and Transport Secretary Malcolm Rifkind, neither of whom were favourites to take the crown when the contest began.

Heseltine was widely regarded as the frontrunner and had the support of a sizeable portion of the parliamentary party, well ahead of Rifkind who finished a surprise second in the first ballot. The eliminated Lang backed his fellow Scot and helped him maintain momentum into the second ballot, with Lilley failing to win even a quarter of MPs to his cause. In the third and final ballot, Lilley's backers broke decisively for Rifkind, with many still blaming Heseltine for Thatcher's topelling in November 1990. Rifkind thus found himself elevated from middle ranking cabinet minister to become the first Scot to serve as Leader of the Conservative Party since Alec Douglas-Home.

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@Airesien

Just coming along to say that I am enjoying this, Kinnock gaining a minority in 92’ is a fun concept, though I’m usually fond of the ‘Kinnock gains a slim majority in 91’ as an idea myself.

Malcolm Rifkind does certainly have more potential in 1992 than later on, particularly as the ‘moderate’ candidate. Amusingly I think I’ve used Ian Lang as a Post Kinnock Victory Conservative leader at one point.
 
1964–1974: Harold Wilson (Labour)
1964 (Majority)
def. Alec Douglas-Home (Conservative), Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1966 (Majority) def. Edward Heath (Conservative), Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1970 (Majority) def. Edward Heath (Conservative), Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal)

1974–1980: James Callaghan (Labour)
1975 (Majority) def. Keith Joseph (Conservative), Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal)
1980–1983: Francis Pym (Conservative)
Jun. 1980 (Minority) def. James Callaghan (Labour), David Steel (Liberal)
Nov. 1980 (Minority with Liberal support) def. Denis Healey (Labour), David Steel (Liberal), Gordon Wilson (SNP)

1983–1989: Denis Healey (Labour)
1983 (Majority) def. Francis Pym (Conservative), Gordon Wilson (SNP), David Steel (Liberal)
1987 (Majority) def. Geoffrey Howe (Conservative), Geraint Howells (Liberal)

1989–1992: Gerald Kaufman (Labour)
1992–2003: Kenneth Clarke (Conservative)

1992 (Majority) def. Gerald Kaufman (Labour), David Penhaligon (Liberal)
1996 (Majority) def. John Prescott (Labour), David Penhaligon (Liberal)
2000 (Majority) def. Barry Sheerman (Labour), David Penhaligon (Liberal), Iain Duncan Smith (UK National)

2003–2005: David McLetchie (Conservative)
2005–2007: Charles Kennedy (Labour)

2005 (Majority) def. David McLetchie (Conservative), Vince Cable (Liberal), Iain Duncan Smith (UK National)
2007–2015: Liam Byrne (Labour)
2010 (Coalition with Liberal)
def. Cheryl Gillan (Conservative), Vince Cable (Liberal), Iain Duncan Smith (UK National), John Swinney (SNP)
2015–: David Laws (Conservative)
2015 (Majority) def. Liam Byrne (Labour), George Eustice (UK National), Fiona Hyslop (SNP), Vince Cable (Liberal)
2019 (Minority with UUP support) def. Dawn Butler (Labour), Fiona Hyslop (SNP), George Eustice (UK National), Caroline Pidgeon (Liberal)
 
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2019–2022: Boris Johnson (Conservative)
2019 (Majority)
def. Jeremy Corbyn (Labour), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Jo Swinson (Liberal Democrat)
2022–2022: Liz Truss (Conservative)
2022–2024: Rishi Sunak (Conservative)
2024–2030: Keir Starmer (Labour)
2024 (Majority)
def. Rishi Sunak (Conservative), Humza Yousaf (SNP), Ed Davey (Liberal Democrat)
2028 (Majority) def. Suella Braverman (Conservative), Daisy Cooper (Liberal Democrat), Jenny Gilruth (SNP)

2030–2033: David Lammy (Labour)
2033–: Ben Houchen (Conservative)

2033 (Minority with UUUP confidence and supply) def. David Lammy (Labour), Daisy Cooper (Liberal Democrat), Alyn Smith (SNP), Gordon Lyons (UUUP)
 
2014–2023: Nicola Sturgeon (SNP)
2016 (Minority)
def. Ruth Davidson (Conservative), Kezia Dugdale (Labour), Patrick Harvie / Maggie Chapman (Green), Willie Rennie (Liberal Democrat)
2021 (Coalition with Green) def. Douglas Ross (Conservative), Anas Sarwar (Labour), Patrick Harvie / Lorna Slater (Green), Willie Rennie (Liberal Democrat)

2023–2026: Humza Yousaf (SNP)
2026 (Coalition with Green) def. Anas Sarwar (Labour), Miles Briggs (Conservative), Patrick Harvie / Lorna Slater (Green), Alex Cole-Hamilton (Liberal Democrat)
2026–2031: Jenny Gilruth (SNP)
2031–: Anas Sarwar (Labour)

2031 (Minority) def. Jenny Gilruth (SNP), Miles Briggs (Conservative), Bruce Wilson (Liberal Democrat), Ross Greer / Lorna Slater (Green)
 
Shadow Cabinet of Suella Braverman
Leader of the Opposition, Leader of the Conservative Party: Suella Braverman
Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer: James Cleverly
Shadow Secretary of State for the Home Department: Kemi Badenoch
Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs: David Frost
Shadow Secretary of State for Defence: Robert Jenrick
Shadow Secretary of State for Justice: Kit Malthouse
Shadow Secretary of State for Transport: Robert Courts
Shadow Secretary of State for Education: Robert Halfon
Shadow Secretary of State for Health: Greg Hands
Shadow Secretary of State for Business and Trade: Anne-Marie Trevelyan
Shadow Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero: Lucy Frazer
Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions: Leo Docherty
Shadow Secretary of State for Housing: Neil O'Brien
Shadow Secretary of State for Local Government and Communities: Michelle Donelan
Shadow Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology: Tom Tugendhat
Shadow Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport: Esther McVey
Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs: Rebecca Pow
Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland: Oliver Dowden
Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland: John Lamont
Shadow Secretary of State for Wales: Fay Jones
Shadow Leader of the House of Commons: Jacob Rees-Mogg
Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Victoria Atkins
Opposition Chief Whip: Chris Heaton-Harris
Shadow Attorney General for England and Wales: Edward Argar
 
2010–2016: David Cameron (Conservative)
2010 (Majority) def. Gordon Brown (Labour), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat)
2014 Scottish independence referendum: no (51.6%) def. yes (48.4%)
2015 (Minority with DUP support) def. Ed Miliband (Labour), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Peter Robinson (DUP)
2016 EU referendum: remain (51.2%)
def. leave (48.8%)

2016–2019: Boris Johnson (Conservative)
2017 (Majority) def. Jon Trickett (Labour), Vince Cable (Liberal Democrat), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP)
2018 EU referendum: no (53.9%) def. yes (46.1%)

2019–2022: Michael Gove (Conservative)
2022–????: Sadiq Khan (Labour)
2022 (Coalition with Liberal Democrat)
def. Michael Gove (Conservative), Norman Lamb (Liberal Democrat), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Nigel Farage (UKIP)
 
2010–2016: David Cameron (Conservative)
2010 (Majority) def. Gordon Brown (Labour), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat)
2014 Scottish independence referendum: no (51.6%) def. yes (48.4%)
2015 (Minority with DUP support) def. Ed Miliband (Labour), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Peter Robinson (DUP)
2016 EU referendum: remain (51.2%)
def. leave (48.8%)

2016–2019: Boris Johnson (Conservative)
2017 (Majority) def. Jon Trickett (Labour), Vince Cable (Liberal Democrat), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP)
2018 EU referendum: no (53.9%) def. yes (46.1%)

2019–2022: Michael Gove (Conservative)
2022–????: Sadiq Khan (Labour)
2022 (Coalition with Liberal Democrat)
def. Michael Gove (Conservative), Norman Lamb (Liberal Democrat), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Nigel Farage (UKIP)
screenshot-en.wikipedia.org-2023.05.25-13_25_22.png


Cameron wins an overall majority in 2010, and the Lib Dems avoid the coalition. He introduces harsher austerity measures as a result and his government is - for a time - extremely unpopular. The populist rise of UKIP once again occurs and Cameron continues down the path of promising a referendum on EU membership to try and neutralise the threat to his right. He doesn't do as well in 2015 as he does IOTL, but still remains within a whisker of a technical majority and gets back into power with the support of the DUP. The EU referendum goes slightly different and its a narrow win for remain, Cameron tries to hold on but realises that with a minority its a lost cause when aggressive backbenchers begin to voice support for a vote of confidence in his leadership and he is replaced by Boris, who successfully portrays himself as the "Champion of the 49%".

Faced with an unpopular left-wing Labour leader in Jon Trickett, Johnson opts to go for an early election. As part of this he promises to improve on Cameron's negotiation with the EU and, if it is unsatisfactory, hold a second EU referendum with a personal recommendation for leaving, and he wins a majority. As always with Boris, his promises never meet reality and after trying and failing to win immigration-related opt outs for the UK, he holds a second EU referendum in the summer of 2018. There is still appetite for leaving from the Conservative base, but the general public aren't impressed at being asked to reconsider the UK's membership just two years on and vote to remain with a slightly larger majority. Johnson's position is untenable, having backed leaving, and he is forced to resign.

Johnson is replaced by Michael Gove, who promises to be a steady hand after the chaos of Cameron and Johnson. He tries to offer thoughtful reform of the way Britain works in order to repair the Conservative's reputation, but his plans are generally derailed by Covid, which turns out much the same as it does IOTL. Small adjustments to Britain's housing market aside, after 12 years of the Tories people are generally fed up with them, and in the 2022 election Labour is the largest party in a hung parliament. Sadiq Khan goes on to form a coalition with Norman Lamb's Liberal Democrats.
 
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1979–1985: Margaret Thatcher (Conservative)
1979 (Majority)
def. James Callaghan (Labour), David Steel (Liberal)
1983 (Minority with UUP support) def. Tony Benn (Labour), David Steel & Roy Jenkins (Liberal–SDP Alliance)

1985–1993: Cecil Parkinson (Conservative)
1986 (Majority)
def. Tony Benn (Labour), David Steel & Shirley Williams (Liberal–SDP Alliance), David Owen (Democratic)
1991 (Majority) def. John Smith (Labour), Robert Maclennan (Social & Liberal Democrats)

1993–1996: Ken Clarke (Conservative)
1996–2005: Jack Straw (Labour)

1996 (Majority) def. Ken Clarke (Conservative), Alan Beith (Social & Liberal Democrats), James Goldsmith (Referendum)
1996 Scottish Assembly referendum: yes (73.7%) def. no (26.3%)
1996 Welsh Assembly referendum: no (50.1%) def. yes (49.9%)
2000 (Majority) def. Michael Portillo (Conservative), Alan Beith (Social & Liberal Democrats)

2005–2008: William Hague (Conservative)
May 2005 (Minority) def. Jack Straw (Labour), Menzies Campbell (Social & Liberal Democrats)
Oct 2005 (Majority) def. Jack Straw (Labour), Menzies Campbell (Social & Liberal Democrats), Kenny MacAskill (Scottish National)
2007 Lisbon Treaty referendum: no (56.5%) def. yes (43.5%)

2008–2010: David Davis (Conservative)
2010–2018: David Miliband (Labour)

2010 (Minority with SDLP and Plaid Cymru support) def. David Davis (Conservative), Graham Watson (Social & Liberal Democrats)
2013 (Majority) def. Murdo Fraser (Conservative), Justine Greening (Social & Liberal Democrats)

2018–2021: Jeremy Hunt (Conservative)
2018 (Majority) def. David Miliband (Labour), Justine Greening (Social & Liberal Democrats), Steven Woolfe (British National), Fiona Hyslop (Scottish National)
2021 European Union membership referendum: stay (51.4%) def. leave (48.6%)

2021–: Kwasi Kwarteng (Conservative)
2023 (Minority with British National support) def. Clive Lewis (Labour), Steven Woolfe (British National), Rory Stewart (Social & Liberal Democrats), Alyn Smith (Scottish National)
 
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