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Airesien's Test Thread

screenshot-en.wikipedia.org-2022.01.31-18_18_29.pngThe 2024 United States presidential election was the 60th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. The Democratic ticket of Governor Jared Polis of Colorado and Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia defeated the Republican ticket of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Polis took office as the 48th president, and Warnock as the 50th vice president, on January 20, 2025. In doing so, Polis became the first LGBT president in U.S. history, whilst Warnock became the second African-American to serve as vice president.

Ascending to the presidency after Joe Biden's resignation from office in April 2023, Kamala Harris initially announced her intention to run for the Democratic nomination in May 2023. However, poor polling numbers and an expectation that she would struggle to win an election to the presidency led to Harris withdrawing from the race in October 2023. The Democratic primaries were competitive, with Polis emerging as the nominee ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, his closest rival for the nomination. Former President Donald Trump was widely expected to be the Republican nominee and he announced his campaign for a second, non-consecutive term in May 2023. However, Trump suffered a heart attack in October 2023 and, despite initial plans to continue his campaign, eventually withdrew in December 2023. The Republican primary was even more competitive and saw Cruz as the frontrunner alongside Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, former Vice President Mike Pence and Texas Governor Greg Abbott. Ultimately Cruz was victorious despite a fierce and bitter fight with Cotton and Pence. Polis selected Warnock as his running mate, whilst Cruz selected Tillis.

Polis and the Democrats made divided government key to their campaign, calling on voters to support Democrats across the ballot in Senate and House races in order to create a mandate for Polis's "Work for America" agenda, which consisted of key economic and political changes to bring the country together after the turmoil and divisiveness of the Trump, Biden and Harris presidencies. The Cruz campaign tried to focus on cultural issues, warning that Polis would increase federal taxes, pack the Supreme Court and expand access to abortion. Although not officially endorsed or repeated by the Cruz campaign, many Cruz supporters launched homophobic attacks on Polis, resulting in a bitter and nasty campaign that dominated the airwaves throughout the fall of 2024. Four debates were held, three between Polis and Cruz and one between Warnock and Tillis. The Democrats were widely judged to be the victors of all four.

Polis secured a victory of 359 electoral votes to Cruz's 179, winning 29 states plus the District of Columbia and Nebraska's second congressional district. Polis flipped a number of states won by the Republicans in 2020, including Florida, Iowa and North Carolina, despite Tillis's appearance on the Republican ticket. For the first time since 1964, the Democratic candidate won the state of Alaska in a presidential election, with Polis narrowly taking the state by a margin of 0.75 percentage points.

Unlike in 2020, where the race was not called for a number of days due to the counting of postal ballots, networks called the race for Polis on election night. Despite this, Cruz refused to concede the election that evening, with some supporters suggesting voter fraud was prevalent in key states, despite a lack of evidence for these claims. Ultimately Cruz did eventually concede the election on November 7, although he refused to do so with a traditional phone call to the other candidate, instead opting to put out a statement on Twitter acknowledging Polis and Warnock as the victors.

Alongside the victory in the presidential election, the Democrats also took both back both chambers of Congress, giving Polis a unified legislature to work with as president.
 
The 2024 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 2 May 2024 to elect 650 Members of Parliament to the House of Commons. It was the first election held after the repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 in 2022 and was held four and a half years after the last election in December 2019.

Opinion polls generally pointed to a Labour victory in the popular vote, with Labour likely to be the largest party in a hung parliament. Polls were eventually proven to have underestimated the governing Conservatives, who had found themselves behind Labour in almost every opinion poll since 2021 but managed to win a plurality of seats (303 out of 650) and votes (36.9% of the popular vote). This marked the fifth election in a row where the Conservatives were the largest party. Nonetheless, they failed to win a majority, resulting in the third hung parliament in the five elections since 2010. Notably, the party was also punished outside of England, losing all of their seats in Scotland and all but two in Wales.

The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, saw a moderate increase in their vote share and a large jump in seats, but the party remained 45 seats behind the Conservatives, at the same tally as they achieved in the 2010 election and behind the 262 seats won at the 2017 election seven years earlier. The party did successfully win back swathes of their heartlands lost to the Conservatives in 2019, including all but 6 of the 32 seats available in Wales.

The Scottish National Party remained the largest party in Scotland and the third-largest party in the Commons, winning all but two of Scotland's 57 seats. The Liberal Democrats saw their seat total fall by two in actual terms due to changes to the electoral boundaries, instead making a notional gain of 1 seat and managing to hold on to their 2021 by-election gain in Chesham and Amersham, despite a strong local challenge there from the Conservatives. Plaid Cymru made a notional gain of 2 seats thanks to the collapse of the Conservative vote in Wales, whilst the Green Party recorded their best ever result in terms of votes, winning just under 5 percent of the popular vote. An independent, Claire Wright, was elected in Exmouth, whilst a second independent in Ashfield was narrowly defeated by the incumbent Conservative Lee Anderson. There was little change in Northern Ireland, where the only seat that changed hands was Foyle, won back by Sinn Fein from the SDLP.

screenshot-en.wikipedia.org-2022.04.18-19_27_49.png

2023UKBoundaries.png

Basically, what if opinion polls remained pretty consistent until the next election, but there was a 2015-style polling error. It would be really interesting to see whether Labour, the SNP, the Lib Dems, Plaid, the SDLP, Alliance, Claire Wright and Caroline Lucas could all agree to work together, if even just to get Boris out of Number Ten. On this result, they'd have 329 seats between them all, enough for an actual majority even without taking Sinn Fein's seats into account, but it obviously wouldn't be a stable coalition and I reckon another election would be called within a year or so, probably when Labour realise they can't hold off the SNP's calls for Indyref2 anymore.

Also, I don't know what happened in Wales. Those results are particularly sketchy and personally I think something's wrong with my electoral calculator, but it was interesting so I kept it in. Let's call it the Mark Drakeford effect.
 
screenshot-en.wikipedia.org-2022.06.02-13_46_21.png
The 2022 United Kingdom general election is an upcoming election that will take place on 16 June 2022 to elect 650 Members of Parliament to the House of Commons. The election is being held just under three years after the previous election in 2018, which resulted in a hung parliament.

After the 2018 election, which saw the Common Wealth Party win a narrow plurality of seats, but fall short of an overall majority, Common Wealth leader James Mayer sought to secure parliamentary support from the Centre, Liberal and Irish Nationalist Parties. As a result of the long-standing collaboration between the two parties, Deputy Northern Irish First Minister Fiona Connell announced that the INP would support the Common Wealth government. The Centre Party opted to remain in opposition but said that they would abstain on confidence and budgetary votes, whilst the Liberal Party, then led by Harold Lamb, agreed to support Mayer's government in return for a commitment to implement some of the party's election manifesto, giving Mayer the support of exactly 326 seats in Parliament, with the Centre Party's abstention giving his government some breathing space.

Nonetheless, the arrangement proved to be ineffective, rendering the government relatively impotent and unable to pass significant legislation, with the Centre Party often voting against the Government on non-confidence and budgetary issues. After Harold Lamb stepped down as Liberal Party leader, and was replaced by Wilson Joyce, the Liberals opted to distance themselves from the Government, although Joyce generally followed the Centre Party's route in abstaining on key votes, whilst occasionally supporting the Government on other issues.

As by-election defeats slowly eroded the number of MPs on the government benches, Leader of the Opposition Patrick Flowers announced that he and Centre Party leader Mary Tovers-Shaw had reached an agreement that a new election would be required. The Liberals abstained in the confidence vote, but the Common Wealth Party lost the vote by 304 votes to 325, leading to Mayer announcing that he would facilitate an election at the earliest opportunity.
 
1990

genusmap.php


Republican - 452
Democratic - 86

1994

genusmap.php


Democratic - 328
Republican - 210
 
Much better than the Cabinet I envisioned in a nightmare the other night - Nadine Dorries PM, Conor Burns Home Secretary, Jacob Rees-Mogg at the Treasury and Andrea Jenkyns to the Foreign Office 😬
 
Such a niche want/need, but why is there more regional breakdowns of election results from before the 1970s? I know regional boundaries have changed in that time but if there was at least a breakdown of seats by North of England, Midlands, the South and London that would be one thing.
 
1940–1965: Winston Churchill (Conservative)
1945, 1950, 1955, 1959, 1963 elections
1965–1972: Rab Butler (Conservative)
1968
1972–1978: Edward Heath (Conservative)
1973
1978–1995: Roy Jenkins (Social Democratic)
1978, 1983, 1988, 1992
1995–1997: Neil Kinnock (Social Democratic)
1997–2007: Ken Clarke (Conservative)

1997, 2001, 2006
2007–2012: David Cameron (Conservative)
2007
2012–2017: Ed Balls (Social Democratic)
2012
2017–: Chuka Umunna (Change UK)
2017, 2022
 
Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (1922–Present)

1916–1926: David Lloyd George (Liberal)

1918, 1922 (min.), 1924 (min.) elections
1926–1931: Stanley Baldwin (Conservative)
1926 election
1931–1935: David Lloyd George (Liberal)
1931 election
1935–1936: Herbert Samuel (Liberal)
1936–1941: Neville Chamberlain (Conservative)

1936, 1940 elections
1941–1953: Oliver Lyttelton (Conservative leading War Cabinet, then Conservative)
1946, 1951 elections
1954–1956: Harry Crookshank (Conservative)
1955–1964: Jo Grimond (Liberal)

1956, 1960 elections
1964–1966: Reginald Maudling (Conservative)
1964 election (min.)
1966–1970: Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1966 election
1970–:
 
View attachment 49374The 2024 United States presidential election was the 60th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. The Democratic ticket of Governor Jared Polis of Colorado and Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia defeated the Republican ticket of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Polis took office as the 48th president, and Warnock as the 50th vice president, on January 20, 2025. In doing so, Polis became the first LGBT president in U.S. history, whilst Warnock became the second African-American to serve as vice president.

Ascending to the presidency after Joe Biden's resignation from office in April 2023, Kamala Harris initially announced her intention to run for the Democratic nomination in May 2023. However, poor polling numbers and an expectation that she would struggle to win an election to the presidency led to Harris withdrawing from the race in October 2023. The Democratic primaries were competitive, with Polis emerging as the nominee ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, his closest rival for the nomination. Former President Donald Trump was widely expected to be the Republican nominee and he announced his campaign for a second, non-consecutive term in May 2023. However, Trump suffered a heart attack in October 2023 and, despite initial plans to continue his campaign, eventually withdrew in December 2023. The Republican primary was even more competitive and saw Cruz as the frontrunner alongside Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, former Vice President Mike Pence and Texas Governor Greg Abbott. Ultimately Cruz was victorious despite a fierce and bitter fight with Cotton and Pence. Polis selected Warnock as his running mate, whilst Cruz selected Tillis.

Polis and the Democrats made divided government key to their campaign, calling on voters to support Democrats across the ballot in Senate and House races in order to create a mandate for Polis's "Work for America" agenda, which consisted of key economic and political changes to bring the country together after the turmoil and divisiveness of the Trump, Biden and Harris presidencies. The Cruz campaign tried to focus on cultural issues, warning that Polis would increase federal taxes, pack the Supreme Court and expand access to abortion. Although not officially endorsed or repeated by the Cruz campaign, many Cruz supporters launched homophobic attacks on Polis, resulting in a bitter and nasty campaign that dominated the airwaves throughout the fall of 2024. Four debates were held, three between Polis and Cruz and one between Warnock and Tillis. The Democrats were widely judged to be the victors of all four.

Polis secured a victory of 359 electoral votes to Cruz's 179, winning 29 states plus the District of Columbia and Nebraska's second congressional district. Polis flipped a number of states won by the Republicans in 2020, including Florida, Iowa and North Carolina, despite Tillis's appearance on the Republican ticket. For the first time since 1964, the Democratic candidate won the state of Alaska in a presidential election, with Polis narrowly taking the state by a margin of 0.75 percentage points.

Unlike in 2020, where the race was not called for a number of days due to the counting of postal ballots, networks called the race for Polis on election night. Despite this, Cruz refused to concede the election that evening, with some supporters suggesting voter fraud was prevalent in key states, despite a lack of evidence for these claims. Ultimately Cruz did eventually concede the election on November 7, although he refused to do so with a traditional phone call to the other candidate, instead opting to put out a statement on Twitter acknowledging Polis and Warnock as the victors.

Alongside the victory in the presidential election, the Democrats also took both back both chambers of Congress, giving Polis a unified legislature to work with as president.

Yes.
 
1996–2007: Jeremy Ashdown (Liberal)
1996 (Majority) def.
2000 (Majority) def.
2005 (Minority) def.

2007–2008: Nicholas Clegg (Liberal)
2008–2022: Graham Brady (Unionist)

2008 (Majority) def.
2012 (Majority) def.
2017 (Majority) def.

2022–Present: Edward Davey (Liberal)
2022 (Majority) def. Graham Brady (Unionist), Rushanara Ali (Social Democratic)
 
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