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Airesien's Test Thread

Alien space bats probably, there is no way Carter can win in 1980, at least not by this margin. But I just wanted to make an infobox with nice portraits where Carter somehow stomps Reagan.
The Reagan campaign calculated if the hostages were freed between October 18th and 25th that Carter would rise 10% in the polls. Given how close some of the pre-election feelers were, it’s not out of the question at all.
 
A graphic (and tweets) from a flipped 2016 TL, where the Republicans nominate the establishment candidate and an outsider comes in and upsets the odds to win the Democratic nomination:

@NateSilver538, November 6, 2016:

"Our final forecast just published! Bush is a 76% favourite in polls-only, 77% in polls plus."

"Bush leads by around 2.2 points and has a 64% chance of winning the popular vote. So his chances of winning the Electoral College are larger than his chances of winning most votes."

"We show Bush winning pretty much the same states as everyone else. A small uptick in his polling in the last 48 hours suggest he is now slight favourite in both NH and NM. He's also favoured in ME-02."


538 Sanders Win.png
 
A graphic (and tweets) from a flipped 2016 TL, where the Republicans nominate the establishment candidate and an outsider comes in and upsets the odds to win the Democratic nomination:

@NateSilver538, November 6, 2016:

"Our final forecast just published! Bush is a 76% favourite in polls-only, 77% in polls plus."

"Bush leads by around 2.2 points and has a 64% chance of winning the popular vote. So his chances of winning the Electoral College are larger than his chances of winning most votes."

"We show Bush winning pretty much the same states as everyone else. A small uptick in his polling in the last 48 hours suggest he is now slight favourite in both NH and NM. He's also favoured in ME-02."



hmmmmm

what's the end result like :unsure:
 
With help from @Cleivan who very helpfully shared the shapefiles in SVG format with me, I prepared a small map of what I expect the next UK election to look like at this stage. Quite depressingly I think I may be overestimating the Lib Dems a bit, but I do think they'll pick up one of Cheltenham, Wimbledon and Esher and Walton, so I gave them all three and Guildford for good measure.

Yay, five more years of Boris...

2023UKBoundaries.png
 
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