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AH Run-downs, summaries and general gubbins

2020s tech brosare succeeding in automating the creative pursuits to make more room for meaningless toil. That's a heck of a dystopia


The interesting thing is, at least in text and language generation it's not high quality automation, but merely what has been called "David Brooks like" and "mediocre computing" that's promoted as "autocomplete for anything". So, at least it might to able to remove some of the meaningless toil from writing and make more time for creative pursuits...
 
The interesting thing is, at least in text and language generation it's not high quality automation, but merely what has been called "David Brooks like" and "mediocre computing" that's promoted as "autocomplete for anything". So, at least it might to able to remove some of the meaningless toil from writing and make more time for creative pursuits...
Progress in this area has been really fast and I suspect it will continue to be so. In 2020 a casual like me could get dream like messy images out of AI generation. In 2021 I could get messy surreal images. Now I can illustrate a story, though more easily if its a bit abstract. And people who care more are getting gorgeous images out of it. I genuinely think 2023 will be the year AI images will be fit for purpose without technical skill.

I was thinking about this the other day - I suspect it'll soon be possible to create decent small fictions with minimal effort. The big issue is culture. I suspect we're maybe two years away from sellable AI fiction, but a decade away from an audience that's culturally ready to buy it.

If I was a billionnaire I'd be tempted to buy up the rights to stories on AO3 etc that achieve a certain level of popularity. Unpublished writers seem, to me, to be ahead of the curve on what audiences want, and offering consumers a small amount of money and micropayment royalties for sampling might help break the cultural bias against algorithmic art.

Of course, arguably, AI art is monstrous and should be stopped etc. But if I was a billionaire I wouldn't be concerned about ethics I'd want to be burieduder a pyramid one day
 
"The most boring dystopia possible" reminds me of Jaron Lanier's "Planet of the Help Desks" scenario, where AI and Big Data turn out to be much less automating then people thought and the majority of the human race becomes employed as help desk technicians for these systems:

"Another computer scientist, Jaron Lanier, emphasises the long record of over-optimism of computer advocates, in my view wisely. If processing power continues to develop as it has done, he warns, we will be living on "the planet of the help desks" because the development of software will lag behind. Lanier - and one or two others, notably David Gelerntner - do not accept that there is much, if any, progress, in that they ask: "Are you really better off than 15 years ago?", and believe that we have hit a "complexity ceiling"."


Combine that with a long but not world collapsing slog through climate disasters, and you can have a non-authoritarian dystopia where the politicians are mostly not at fault.

I saw an interesting tweet a while ag about how 1970s futurists promised to automate the meaningless toil to give us more time for creative pursuits, and 2020s tech brosare succeeding in automating the creative pursuits to make more room for meaningless toil. That's a heck of a dystopia

It's all very JG Ballard: not a bloody apocalypse, just claustrophobic boredom. (I always did think his short stories were scarier than most dystopias.)
 
Result 1: The Constitutional Convention

2010-2015: David Cameron (Conservative)
May-October 2015: David Cameron (Conservative minority)

October 2015-October 2021: Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat-Labour Coalition)
Winter 2015 Conservative Leadership Election (Party Members Vote): Jeremy Hunt
2016 Constitutional convention delegate election:
2017 Constituional Convention referendum: 53% Yes
2021-present: Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat-Green Minority with Labour, Plaid Cymru,

A Year in review
The Independent, 12th May 2022


One year into the “New politics” as defined under the constitutional convention and Britain is still getting used to multi party politics. Nick Clegg may have eked out a win under the new system and was able to form a broad coalition with the Greens and support on an issue by issue basis with other parties but it remains to been how stable it is. While the green credentials of the government have been praised, many on the left of the Greens have criticised the “centrist” economic policies lead by the Liberal Democrats. The stability of the government however is the fracturing of the right during the pandemic and the empowerment of Parties on the right such as UKIP, the “Culture Warrior” Liberty GB lead by Lawrence Fox and the Conspiratorial Freedom Alliance. Liz Truss frequently finds herself drowned out by voices on her own back benches. Meanwhile the Government’s “Arms reach” partners in the Labour Party continue to grow in popularity with Rayner striking a balance between cooperation with the government and distancing herself on unpopular issues.

On other issues the newly empowered Scottish Parliament delivered an inconclusive result with the SNP-Lib Dem government looking to continue. In Wales Labour have several options fo their junior coalition partner. The government looks to their next major test of popularity. The English Parliamentary elections in May 2023.

TL1

One Hundred and Thirty-Fourth Official PMQs and British Politics Thread

22nd December 2023

So, Eighteen Months into the government that was Clegg’s to Lose (and then he won). It remains to be seen if this government will last the fixed five year term. So, the

Government Parties:
Liberal Democrats: Are polling like shit. The sheen has 100% has come off the almighty Clegg and it is only the Tories repeatedly shitting themselves that keeps him from buddying up with Labour again or them for that matter
The Greens: Despite the government expanding renewable energy like never before they hate it here.

His Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition:
AND
Supply and Confidence
Labour: Nandy is walking a tightrope between keeping up the S&C long enough for Clegg to fall apart, stopping a Lib Dem-Tory government and still benefitting from an unpopular Lib Dem government

Other UK Wide Opposition
The Conservative Party: Truss’ efforts to remain Tory leader until the govt collapses and Clegg Vacates the centre right might be running out as she continues to get a bollocking fromm
UKIP: the People’s Nige is milking the ‘15-’21 wave of populism for all its worth with people polarised between “yes now do europe” and “fuck, we’ve just reformed everything else, calm down”

National Parties
SNP:
Devo Max sure did take the wind out of the sails of independence. Bet they wish they didnt do so well in the convention elections
Plaid Cymru: Same but with only six seats instead of 20
English Democrats: Stop trying to make the EDs the English SNP. There just isn’t a vibe.
Scottish Greens: Are they in the government? Are they not? Harvey gets a bollocking whenever he’s seen with Ramsay and Denyer anyway.

NI:
SF: Are doing okay post-convention. Honest
DUP: *buzz Aldrin voice* second comes right after first
Alliance: Are slowly edging away from the PM
SDLP: Are slowly edging towards Lisa Nandy
TUV: Are also there

Others
THIS SPACE RESERVED FOR WHEN SOMEONE E.G. TAMSIN ORMOND LEAVES GPEW
Independents: Well there’s like nine of them. Hate that they’re lumped in withhhhhh
Russel Brand: The Green Party’s horrible publicity stunt continues to reject the conspiracy minded elements of UKIP, even over COVID and continues to somehow also run a sex cult.
 
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So this started out as a little idea heavily inspired by Belgium and my readings lately into Ancient Regime institutions and laws, but it got a bit out of hand:

Political Parties in the Dual Monarchy (1886)

Following the Charter Revolution of 1851, when the Commons and the Estates rose against King Henry X, forcing him to acquiesce to the restoration of traditional rights and liberties and introduce great institutional novelties like self-summoning estates and the Permanent Delegation of the 30 (1), tasked with overseeing the work of royal and governmental officials, a sort of comptroller office.

The Revolution introduced - restored according to its defenders - a complicated institutional set up across the kingdoms, while introducing a major novelty, a new body, the Joint Estates of the Realm. The French and English (and Welsh) electors each choose the same amount of commons' delegates, split between burgh seats and rural seats, while the Irish elect half of what the other two do. Then the nobility and the Church elect their own delegates, with the weight of their representation significantly reduced compared to the pre-1851 situation.

Since the Revolution, and particularly since the ascension to the throne of Edward VI, the former revolutionaries have split, as they by now the constitutional set up is secure and the old ideological and provincial differences have returned to the forefront of politics.

In addition to the traditional differences between the moderates and the liberals (themselves increasingly split between traditional or ‘doctrinary’ liberals and progressive ones) who have dominated politics since the Revolution, one has to add the traditionalists (the old Court Party) as well as the new political forces, the Irish trialists and the first workers’ organisations.

Following the hotly-contested 1885 election, when the Liberals under Walthère Frère-Orban were resoundingly defeated by the Moderates, as a result of the rejection by the voters of the anti-clerical policies of his cabinet, including the breaking of relations with Rome, the cutting of all funding for Catholic priests and the secularisation of all schools. In their stead, the Moderates came to power.

Government

Moderate Party
- After 10 years out of power, the Moderates, led by Gathorne Hardy, have returned to power. In their agenda there is a push against the anticlericalism of the Frère-Orban years as well as some proposals to expand the franchise in the country seats (2).

In 1884, following the passing of the new liberal education laws, everyone expected a reaction, but no one - not even Moderates - expected the strength and resonance of the public backlash. Organised by parish priests and their flocks, and endorsed and funded by the Church, unprecedented marches on London and Paris were organised, hundreds of letters and petitions were addressed to the Estates, the Regent and the King calling on them to reject the legislation. The bishops in both France and England also spoke out in harsh tone condemning the move in spite of the government’s attempts to convince the Holy See to force them not to speak out.

This strong reaction has raised the stakes for the Moderates now in power, and it has greatly increased the internal battle between the parliamentary party - more moderate - and the leagues, clubs and circles that exist at the ground level and have close ties to the local gentry, agrarian leagues and the Church, which are far more clerical in outlook.

As a result, the Hardy cabinet is preparing legislation on the topic but is also quite divided. The majority of the parliamentary party, and roughly half the cabinet, led by Finance Minister H. H. Molyneux-Herbert (and supported by the Home Minister, Camille de Meaux) favour the repeal of the liberal laws and a return to the status quo ante. Meanwhile, the Catholic associative world from which the party draws its supporters, a large minority of the parliamentary party, led by Hardy, favour a more radical repeal.

In these radical moderates’ view, the goal of the new bill is to entrench Catholicism in schools and allowing towns and villages to ban the opening of non-parochial schools by funding them and introducing religious requirements in teacher training curricula.

Little thought has been given to the disproportionate impact on Reformists and other dissenters, which may still come to bite them, not to mention the stir in high society, where the extremism of both Moderates and Liberals is raising the stakes in the country’s politics. Rumours of imposition of schooling languages will no doubt increase opposition in southern France where the attachment to their langues d’oc is as strong as ever.

Unfortunately for them, the Moderates also face other issues now in power, inherited from the previous government. The economic situation in the country is not good, and budgetary restraints have been imposed, together with higher taxes. This already hurt the liberals and contributed to their downfall, and it is likely to also hurt the Moderates, particularly if the crisis starts to more directly affect the agricultural sector. As a result, agricultural relief and higher tariffs are being explored to protect the sector - and one of the party’s key constituencies.

Parliamentary Opposition

Liberal Party
- the Liberals are in a rout. Their anticlericalism, overdone during the 1875-85 decade, has backfired. Their defence of provincial autonomy, free trade and the power of the Estates and parliaments is not enough of an ideological glue anymore, and anticlericalism, while unifying, is not exactly a vote-winner in either northern France or southern England. With the death of Henry X and the current reign of the boy king Edward, fears of attempted royal authoritarianism are not credible, and therefore they don’t unite the party either. Indeed, the great question for the party is the extension of suffrage.

The orthodox liberals led by Frère-Orban are opposed to any expansion (unless it is politically beneficial) and they struggle against the progressive liberals, led by Henri Brisson. The friction between the leaders and their factions has only increased as recriminations have gone up. Neither man is known as a compromiser, and the creation by the progressives of a separate organisation at the local and provincial level, and the establishment of a common platform, the ‘Liverpool Programme’, outlining nationalisations, welfare measures for workers and farmers, will only deepen the divide with the orthodox liberals, the strongest defenders of laissez faire economics.

Lastly, there is the geographical divide. The Liberals are strongest in the cities all around, and particularly in the industrial centres of northern England, where there is a strong bourgeois element, but they are also markedly strong in the areas of Reformed majority in Auvergne, Dauphiné and south-western France, as well as in Wales and parts of north-western England. Here they can count on the support of rural voters and local potentates who support the liberals’ secular agenda to combat the Catholic clericalism of the moderates.

This divide strongly feeds into the intra-party conflict, as the urban bourgeois element in towns like Manchester or Liverpool fear the enfranchisement of the working classes (or indeed the radical lower middle classes) whereas the rural liberals are aware that broader enfranchisement could benefit them, or at least not menace their elections thanks to their position as local notables.

Regardless, in response to the Hardy cabinet’s new school law bill, the two fractions of the Liberal Party are united in launching a large campaign to oppose it. Gathering the signatures and voices of all the major cities’ mayors (London, Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Birmingham, Liverpool, Dublin, etc.), university deans and key intellectuals to petition the Regent to refuse to endorse the law and declaring that, if that fails, they will go to the Parliament (3) of Paris to ensure that the law is not published.

This legalistic and top-down approach that the liberals have contrasts to the grassroots organisation of the moderate and showcases the problems affecting the party and the risks to its long-term viability as a political entity if suffrage is extended and the liberals don’t adopt measures to attract a growing electorate - further feeding into the party’s ideological divide.

Irish Trialists - The Irish trialists are not a proper party - even by the lax standards of ‘party’ in late 19th century party politics - but rather a collection of Irish notables and Gaelic-speaking local and county officials, driven by a single unifying demand - the recognition of Ireland as an equal kingdom to England and France in the Dual Monarchy (the ‘Triune Monarchy’ as they call it), with equal participation in political affairs (unlike its current subordinate position to England) and equal representation to the other two kingdoms in the Joint Estates.

A growing movement in the Emerald Island, the trialists have gathered a great deal of support across the island’s religious divide based on their platform of equal representation and equal rights for the kingdom and its institutions, to put the island’s Commons and Lords on equal footing with its English equivalent.

The trialists have gathered support from across Ireland, but they are particularly strong in the more politically-aware Leinster province, where the Charter Revolution was more felt, and therefore where resentment at the lack of changes in the island is most strongly felt. Their advocacy for the use of Gaelic means that they are growing more support in the western half of the island, which resents the dominance of the English- or French-speaking elites in eastern Ireland.

Politically-speaking, their members could easily be either moderates or liberals (and indeed they are roughly evenly split), but their common pledge to fight for equal representation has meant that they tend to leverage their support to either major party, although their success so far as been limited. To showcase the broad support in the island for the trialist cause across the sectarian divide, there is a broad consensus that the movement needs to be led by two leaders, one Reformist (Parnell) and one Catholic (Gavan Duffy).

Anti-Revolutionary Party - The anti-revolutionaries are, in case it wasn’t clear from their name, the last legacy of the hardcore supporters of the pre-revolutionary legal settlement, with centralised royal government, two languages and restrained parliaments and estates. They represent a small faction, acting as ultra-moderates outdoing even the more extreme members of the Moderate Party.

Their platform is simple enough, they desire a return to the old system: legal and linguistic centralisation, noble ascendancy, closely relation between throne and altar and royal authoritarianism (taxation without consultation, appointment of urban and provincial officials, and the re-introduction of the lettres de cachet and bills of attainder).

Regardless, after over 30 years of constitutional rule, the traditionalists are starting to make their peace with the system, particularly at the provincial level. These new anti-revolutionaries, who prefer to be referred to as ‘conservatives’, continue to espouse legally centralist views and an enshrined privileged role for the nobility and, especially, the Catholic Church in society. They are also strongly protectionistic. This has enabled them to survive as a political force in an otherwise hostile atmosphere.

Most of their members are elected (4) in the ‘noble’ seats to the Joint Estates, primarily from the extremely Catholic and conservative areas of Brittany and areas of intense sectarian tensions, like northern Provence.

Extra-parliamentary Opposition

Outside the Joint Estates, and for that matter nearly-all provincial estates, there is a brewing movement of the industrial working classes. In the large cities, in northern England and parts of northern France, industrial workers have formed socialist trade unions, mutual relief associations and all sorts of clubs (mutual support, education, sports, etc.), creating the first steps towards a working class organised subculture.

These organised workers and their associations are slowly beginning to interact with the broader political world, until now dominated by the aristocracy, the gentry and the urban bourgeoisie (whether patrician or burgher). This has been happening either by cooptation into the most progressive elements of the liberal camp or through the creation of Catholic workers’ associations, supported by the Church, and attempts to have “Catholic worker” independents run in urban elections, where the franchise requirements are lower (or non-existent in some cases).

However, there is growing dissatisfaction with the traditional parties, and inspired by the Burgundian and German models, union leaders and workers have began to create the first socialist parties to run for office at the local and provincial levels. These parties remain divergent in terms of their inspiration (philoclerical, anti-clerical, socialist, luddite, social Christian, liberal far-left, republican, etc.) and as such there not a single electoral force. And that is before entering into the sectarian divide or for that matter the tricky issue of trialism.

Nevertheless, the first congress of various forces is set to take place in 1887, as more and more leaders are becoming aware of the need to coordinate efforts. The outcome of the 1887 Workers’ Congress is very unclear, with a multitude of players.

Separately, “trouble" is stirring in southern France. Long proud of their history and aggrieved by the imposition of French over their langues d’oc, even if the practice has ceased, a regionalist movement, of conservative and rural nature, is appearing in Languedoc, Aquitaine, Provence or the Dauphiné. So far its impact is heavily limited to provincial estates, but it is growing. These worries local liberals, as these provinces tend to represent their best strongholds, with southern French liberals starting to mimic the style of these regionalists.

—————
  1. Inspired by the Principality of Liege’s Tribunal of the 22.
  2. Also very Belgian in inspiration. The two main Belgian parties in the 19th century, the liberals and the Catholics, both believed broadly in wealth-based voting (indeed, it was enshrined in the Constitution) but liked to play with municipal tax rates to expand or restrict the franchise in the towns or in the countryside to benefit themselves. By the late 1890s, the Catholics were bigger believers in universal suffrage as they believed - rightly - that the Flemish countryside would vote for them. The liberals were more reluctant, knowing that their strength arose from the French-speaking urban middle and upper classes (in the late 19th century, this meant nearly-all urban middle and upper classes), but deeply divided between doctrinary liberals (opposed to universal suffrage) led by Frère-Orban and progressive liberals (favourable to universal suffrage and labour-liberal cooperation) led by Paul Janson.
  3. The Parlement de Paris, owing to its prestige and its composition has remained the key judicial organ in the monarchy, with its jurisdiction now extending to cover England and Wales as well as Ireland.
  4. The ‘noble’ seats to the Estates are elected by the nobility in a given province, although many of them are de facto attributed to the highest noble(s) of the province, with the remaining seat(s) allocated through an actual vote.
    A similar system is used for the ‘ecclesiastical’ seats, which are allocated to specific ecclesiastical provinces, where some seats are elected by the members of abbeys, and others are elected by the bishops. In this cases, again, there is a certain tendency to vote respecting the hierarchical nature of the Church. Some have suggested introducing ecclesiastical seats to represent the Reformed churches, but nothing has come out of it - yet.
 
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Forged A Different Man

298 AC


King on the Iron Throne: Viserys I Targaryen [1]
  • His Queen: Elia Martell [2]
Princess of Dragonstone: Rhaenyra Targaryen [3]

Great Houses
Lord of the Vale: Jon Arryn [4]
Lord of the North: Rickard Stark [5]
Lord of the Riverlands: Hoster Tully [6]
Lord of the Westerlands: Tywin Lannister [7]
Lord of the Reach: Mace Tyrell [8]
Lord of the Stormlands: Steffon Baratheon [9]
Prince of Dorne: Doran Martell [10]
Lord of the Iron Islands: Daemon Targaryen. [11]

The Small Council
Hand of the King: Doran Martell
Mistress of Coin: Alyse Ladybright [12]
Master of Laws: Jon Arryn
Master of Ships: Monford Velaryon [13]
Master of Whispers: Eddard Stark [14]
Grand Maester: Pycelle [15]

Kingsguard
Lord Commander: Ser Lewyn Martell
Ser Barristan Selmy
Ser Nestor Royce
Ser Gwayne Gaunt
Ser Cortnay Penrose
Ser Arthur Dayne [16]
Ser Areo Hotah


[1] Many have been the days that King Viserys, the first of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and Protector of the Realm, has prayed to be king at any other time. Since the passing of his father Jaehaerys II, Viserys has steered the realm from crisis to ongoing crisis, and few astute observers fail to see the rot that has sunken into king as well as country. Only his beloved queen and trusted Hand keeps the King alive and atop the throne. And dreams, neverending dreams of a raven and another one-eyed man. Viserys has some idea of what is about to come to pass.

[2] Elia Martell was closest companion of the Princess of Dragonstone – more than that, some whisper – until Good Queen Aemma died and Viserys settled upon the softspoken Dornish girl as her replacement. Since then, Rhaenyra and the realm have had little love for the new Queen. Her three sons could quarrel over water being wet, and her brother the Hand envenoms every scheme in the Seven Kingdoms. Few realize that Queen Elia’s grace, patience, and acceptance of the ‘Dornish’ succession of a daughter before a son, is almost all that holds the realm together these days.

[3] Rhaenyra Targaryen, resident of Dragonstone (frequently) and Casterly Rock (almost never) is the troubled heir of a troubled time. To her partisans the Princess is the happy medium between her invalid father, babbling about monsters at the Wall, and her bloodthirsty uncle, peopling a sea of corpses. To her enemies the Princess is, of course, the Whore of the Westerlands, and her treatment of her long-suffering husband Ser Jaime Lannister the disgrace of the realm. Best not to bring this up within earshot of either the Princess or her omnipresent companion Lyanna Stark. Or of the new counselor that the Princess has summoned from the east, that shadowbinder from Asshai. The red woman.

[4] Jon’s daughter Aemma was of course the King’s beloved first wife, meaning that whatever the various shakeups over the years, good old Jon has been grandfathered in as an eternal member of the court. His position may have waned over the years, but it would not do to underestimate the King’s lasting respect for him – or Jon’s iron determination to see his granddaughter sit the Iron Throne.

[5] Rickard is called the Wise Wolf because of alliteration, but also because he has steered his house through Viserys’ factional whirlpools with an uncommonly steady hand. A son fostered in the Vale and married to a Dornishwoman, a daughter high up within the Queen’s entourage, and his pride and joy Brandon finally settled with the lovely Melessa Florent and producing clever grandsons. Plus, Benjen off doing whatever maesters do at the Citadel these days. Despite everything his children do still, in fact, like him.

[6] Every factional struggle has a loser as well. Hoster has gambled far, far too much on the marriage of his only favorite daughter Catelyn to Prince Daemon Targaryen, and despite many fishy princelings and princesses, his daughter is miserable and Daemon nowhere near the throne. Lysa is happy enough as Lady Tyrell, at least, not that Hoster cares.

[7] Does Tywin loathe his good-daughter Rhaenyra, in his heart of hearts? Yes. Does he often wish Jaime would do the smart, decent thing and just push Lyanna Stark off a tower somewhere? Yes. Is he willing to abandon the claim of his grandchildren when they could be the first Lannisters to rule everything from Dorne to the Wall? Well, er. No.

[8] Mace has a big happy family, a loving wife, and a King that laughs at his jokes. What more could a lord want, really?

[9] Steffon and his cousin are fond of each other, despite their differences, but Doran makes sure that they are fond at a distance. No matter. Robert and Cersei are goodbrother and goodsister of the Queen-to-be, Stannis and Alerie well-liked satellites of Highgarden, and even Renly manages to tolerate the company of that jackass Daemon somehow.

[10] The very, very bold – or drunken – call Viserys’ sunken, ghastly eye socket the Snakebite, when neither King nor Hand can hear. No guesses for which Prince Daemon came up with this. And yet if you truly look at the last few decades, who has sunken their fangs into who? Doran is almost broken down by the endless strain of running the realm, hatching scheme within scheme so that the King may devote his attention to Valyrian models, sending dragon-glass to the Wall, and other such nonsense. His royal nephews may never inherit anything at all, when it comes right down to it. But they may.

[11] Viserys’ reign has been astonishingly free of open warfare, with one exception. Lord Balon called his banners to oust the ‘Cripple King’ just over a decade ago. And of course it fell to Viserys’ dark shadow, to his much-loved, much-hated brother, to put the rebellion down. Lord Paramount Daemon Targaryen of the Iron Islands is still putting it down, one ironborn priest at a time. Most of Westeros consider his acts unpleasant, necessary peacekeeping. Daemon considers it dress rehearsal.

[12] There is precedent – albeit under Maegor – for women serving on the small council. Alyse Ladybright owes her position less to that precedent and more to her ingenuity and the belief by Doran – and Rhaenyra – that she can be won to their side. One of them is wrong

[13] The Velaryon’s fortunes have been in decline ever since noble Rhaegar lost the Dance of Dragons, but Master of Ships is still theirs for the asking, even when they are a proven mediocrity like Monford.

[14] Eddard Stark is a complete cipher. Protégé of Lord Arryn, happily married to Lady Dayne, at his father’s insistence he has taken even the most disreputable of Small Council positions and made it his own. Varys’ ghastly practices are out, careful cultivation of the merchants and smallfolk is in. Stark’s fearsome reputation stems in large part from the belief that he has the King’s ear – and because he may be the only impartial man in court, he does. But sooner or later even the Whispering Wolf will have to pick a side.

[15] For all that Viserys loathes the old Lannister maester – and keeps him far away from any medicinal duties – he would be quite sad were the one man at court even more decrepit than him to go away. Pycelle feels much the same.

[16] Rumors that Rhaenyra and Arthur Dayne were “entangled” at one point are of course just that. Rumors. The Sword of the Morning is known far and wide as one of the staunchest supporters of Queen Elia at court, a paragon beyond reproach. Dawn itself is said to be a blade greater than all others in the realm. Can it stand before Lightbringer? Or – far, far to the north – swords forged of moonlight, and ice, and pain.

King Viserys is not a well man. And winter is coming.
 
Nice mashup, really captures the first season of both shows vibe of a great number of pots all coming to a boil at once.

Thanks! I think Mad King Aerys is one of the weakest spots of the GOT canon, and Viserys definitely the strongest bit of HOTD, so the swap seemed obvious.

I’ll admit combining them was more difficult than I thought, since there really is a difference between “the king has to bargain with various powerful lords” and “the king has dragons” - it’s hard to see Daemon, like, negotiating with Walder Frey over a bridge. Mostly happy with where this ended up, but it may get reworked a bit eventually.
 
Not-very-democratic-Germany scenarios always fill me with such existential dread. I don’t have that feeling with any other West European nation. You can make a list of France being led by a fascist junta, or Britain by a secret cabal, and I’ll eat that shit up, but a Germany where the Kaiser is still influencing decision making just makes me really sad.
This response has been stuck in my mind ever since I read it several days ago, as it perfectly describes the unique…dread I also feel reading about such scenarios, and after some thinking I believe I might be able to articulate why that discomforts me so, as it does you.

Germany is, particularly in a world where 1918-1945 never happened, always a major power, and seeing a semi-authoritarian Germany enshrined means democracy cannot be unquestionably dominant in Europe-and its worldwide position is probably far weaker, especially since it implies the model of "vaguely democratic monarchy" has not been discredited nearly as much as OTL.


But also, seeing an undemocratic, authoritarian (but not totalitarian or nightmarish) Germany seems to impinge on some theodicy buried in our hearts. For all the tragedy and evil of Germany's 20th century history, Hohenzollern monarchy and their kind of authoritarian rule has at least decisively been burnt out of the German body politic, and the country is a unified, consolidated democracy, one with some flaws but not with the besetting sins of Bismarckian or Wilhelmine Germany. Scenarios like the one above remove that sense of redemption that is the only comfort we can take from 20th century German history. They force us to confront what such a country, and such a world, would look like-where the present is unquestionably worse than ours but one with a far kinder past, such that one cannot with an untroubled conscience prefer our world to theirs. We are supposed to resist the temptation to judge timelines by a narrow standard of "better or worse than OTL", but these scenarios make that nearly impossible, inflaming our passions and perhaps showing how much the idea of "the world, but done right", still animates us, provoking some of the confusion when it falls apart here.

A modern, authoritarian Germany for us, is through the looking glass, in the worst and most uncanny sense.
 
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Random: I remember seeing a story semi-recently about the diminished and dissolute court in exile of Edward of Lancaster, with Henry Tudor in a prominent role in the plot. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find it on the site. Does that sound familiar to anyone else?
 
If we're remembering old vignettes, there's one I've been looking for for a while about a neo-nazi group going back in time to try and win Hitler the war by giving him just the right advice, with the ultimate conclusion (I think) being that, in fact, things went about as well as they could for old Adi.
 
Members of the Council of the Central European Customs Union, c. 2021
Mitteleuropäische Zollverein - Midden-Europese Douane Unie - Közép-európai Vámunió - Srednjoeuropska Carinska Unija - Централноевропейски митнически съюз - Серединноєвропейський митний союз - etc.

Republic of Albania
President Tomor Dosti (Progressive Conservatives of Albania)
Centre-right to right-wing | Conservatism, liberal conservatism, pro-Zollverein

Archduchy of Austria
Chancellor Renate Reisinger (Austrian Democrats)
Centre-right | Liberalism, reformism, secularism, pro-Zollverein

Belarusian People's Republic
President of the Rada Jan Alfiorau (Belarusian Socialist Hramada)
Centre to centre-left | Social democracy, civic nationalism, Zollverein-skeptic, social conservatism

Kingdom of Belgium
Prime Minister Paul Magnette (Belgian Socialist Party)
Left-wing | Social democracy, progressivism, eco-socialism, pro-Zollverein

Tsardom of Bulgaria
Prime Minister Stefan Yanev (National Democratic Party of Bulgaria) [1]
Right-wing | Big-tent, national conservatism, Bulgarian nationalism, pro-Zollverein

Kingdom of Czechia
Prime Minister Jiří Dienstbier ml. (Czech Social Democratic Workers' Party)
Centre-left | Social democracy, pro-Zollverein, social liberalism

Kingdom of Denmark
Prime Minister Ida Auken (Social Democrats)
Centre-left | Social democracy, progressivism, pro-Zollverein

Kingdom of Finland
Prime Minister Sauli Niinistö (National Coalition Party)
Centre-right | Big-tent, liberal conservatism, monarchism, Christian democracy, pro-Zollverein

French Fourth Republic
Prime Minister Marc Le Fur (Alliance for a Popular Republic)
Centre-right | Liberal conservatism, federalism, Christian democracy, pro-Zollverein

German Empire
Chancellor Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg (Zentrum)
Centre-right to right-wing | Conservatism, Christian democracy, social conservatism, pro-interventionism, political Catholicism

Kingdom of Greece
Prime Minister Takis Theodorikakos (Popular Democratic Movement)
Right-wing | Conservatism, Christian democracy, social conservatism, pro-interventionism, pro-Zollverein

Kingdom of Hungary
Prime Minister Lajos Orban (Christian Democratic Bloc)
Centre-right | Liberal conservatism, Christian democracy, pro-Zollverein, political Catholicism

Kingdom of Illyria
Prime Minister Edin Forto (Most)
Centre | Centrism, social liberalism, secularism, civic nationalism (Illyrianism), pro-Zollverein

Kingdom of Italy
Prime Minister Stefano Fassina (Social Democratic Party)
Left-wing | Social democracy, social progressivism, civic nationalism, Zollverein-skeptic [faction]

Kingdom of Lithuania
Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis (Lithuanian Democratic Union)
Centre | Social democracy, environmentalism, social conservatism

United States of Livonia
President Egils Levits (Constitutional Democratic Union — Livonian Way)
Centre | Conservative liberalism, civic nationalism, pro-Zollverein, Baltic German interests, social liberalism [faction]

Principality of Montenegro
Prime Minister Milo Brnović (Democratic Alliance)
Centre to centre-right | Big-tent, liberal conservatism, reformism, social conservatism, Montenegrin nationalism

Kingdom of the Netherlands
Prime Minister Thom de Graaf (Christian Democratic Union)
Centre-right | Christian democracy, social conservatism, Dutch nationalism, liberal conservatism [faction]

Republic of Poland
Prime Minister Adrian Zandberg (PPS – Polish Socialist Party)
Left-wing | Social democracy, social progressivism, democratic socialism, pro-Zollverein

Kingdom of Romania
Prime Minister Alexandru Dragnea (People, Family, Fatherland)
Right-wing | Social conservatism, economic protectionism, Romanian nationalism, Zollverein-skeptic

Kingdom of Serbia
Prime Minister Nebojša Zelenović (Democratic Bloc "Together for Serbia")
Left-wing to centre | Big-tent, reformism, social democracy, republicanism, left-wing populism [faction]

Kingdom of Sweden
Prime Minister Lars Mikael Damberg (Swedish Social Democratic Workers' Party)
Centre to centre-left | Social democracy, pro-interventionism, pro-Zollverein

Kingdom of Ukraine
Prime Minister Oleh Liashko (AiDaR – Agrarian-Democratic Rukh) [1]
Right-wing | National conservatism, populism, agrarianism, Ukrainian nationalism

[1] Officially independent, as the constitutions of Bulgaria and Ukraine bar heads of government from leading a political party.
 
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Members of the Council of the Central European Customs Union, c. 2021
Mitteleuropäische Zollverein - Midden-Europese Douane Unie - Közép-európai Vámunió - Srednjoeuropska Carinska Unija - Централноевропейски митнически съюз - Серединноєвропейський митний союз - etc.

Republic of Albania
President Tomor Dosti (Progressive Conservatives of Albania)
Centre-right to right-wing | Conservatism, liberal conservatism, pro-Zollverein

Archduchy of Austria
Chancellor Renate Reisinger (Austrian Democrats)
Centre-right | Liberalism, reformism, secularism, pro-Zollverein

Belarusian People's Republic
President of the Rada Jan Alfiorau (Belarusian Socialist Hramada)
Centre to centre-left | Social democracy, civic nationalism, Zollverein-skeptic, social conservatism

Kingdom of Belgium
Prime Minister Paul Magnette (Belgian Socialist Party)
Left-wing | Social democracy, progressivism, eco-socialism, pro-Zollverein

Tsardom of Bulgaria
Prime Minister Stefan Yanev (National Democratic Party of Bulgaria) [1]
Right-wing | Big-tent, national conservatism, Bulgarian nationalism, pro-Zollverein

Kingdom of Czechia
Prime Minister Jiří Dienstbier ml. (Czech Social Democratic Workers' Party)
Centre-left | Social democracy, pro-Zollverein, social liberalism

Kingdom of Denmark
Prime Minister Ida Auken (Social Democrats)
Centre-left | Social democracy, progressivism, pro-Zollverein

Kingdom of Finland
Prime Minister Sauli Niinistö (National Coalition Party)
Centre-right | Big-tent, liberal conservatism, Christian democracy, pro-Zollverein

French Fourth Republic
Prime Minister Marc Le Fur (Alliance for a Popular Republic)
Centre-right | Liberal conservatism, federalism, Christian democracy, pro-Zollverein

German Empire
Chancellor Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg (Zentrum)
Centre-right to right-wing | Conservatism, Christian democracy, social conservatism, pro-interventionism, political Catholicism

Kingdom of Greece
Prime Minister Takis Theodorikakos (Popular Democratic Movement)
Right-wing | Conservatism, Christian democracy, social conservatism, pro-interventionism, pro-Zollverein

Kingdom of Hungary
Prime Minister Lajos Orban (Christian Democratic Bloc)
Centre-right | Liberal conservatism, Christian democracy, pro-Zollverein, political Catholicism

Kingdom of Illyria
Prime Minister Edin Forto (Most)
Centre | Centrism, social liberalism, secularism, civic nationalism (Illyrianism), pro-Zollverein

Kingdom of Italy
Prime Minister Stefano Fassina (Social Democratic Party)
Left-wing | Social democracy, social progressivism, civic nationalism, Zollverein-skeptic [faction]

Kingdom of Lithuania
Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis (Lithuanian Democratic Union)
Centre | Social democracy, environmentalism, social conservatism

United States of Livonia
President Egils Levits (Constitutional Democratic Union — Livonian Way)
Centre | Conservative liberalism, civic nationalism, pro-Zollverein, Baltic German interests, social liberalism [faction]

Principality of Montenegro
Prime Minister Milo Brnović (Democratic Alliance)
Centre to centre-right | Big-tent, liberal conservatism, reformism, social conservatism, Montenegrin nationalism

Kingdom of the Netherlands
Prime Minister Thom de Graaf (Christian Democratic Union)
Centre-right | Christian democracy, social conservatism, Dutch nationalism, liberal conservatism [faction]

Republic of Poland
Prime Minister Adrian Zandberg (PPS – Polish Socialist Party)
Left-wing | Social democracy, social progressivism, democratic socialism, pro-Zollverein

Kingdom of Romania
Prime Minister Alexandru Dragnea (People, Family, Fatherland)
Right-wing | Social conservatism, economic protectionism, Romanian nationalism, Zollverein-skeptic

Kingdom of Serbia
Prime Minister Nebojša Zelenović (Democratic Bloc "Together for Serbia")
Left-wing to centre | Big-tent, reformism, social democracy, republicanism, left-wing populism [faction]

Kingdom of Sweden
Prime Minister Lars Mikael Damberg (Swedish Social Democratic Workers' Party)
Centre to centre-left | Social democracy, pro-interventionism, pro-Zollverein

Kingdom of Ukraine
Prime Minister Oleh Liashko (AiDaR – Agrarian-Democratic Rukh) [1]
Right-wing | National conservatism, populism, agrarianism, Ukrainian nationalism

[1] Officially independent, as the constitutions of Bulgaria and Ukraine bar heads of government from leading a political party.
The bastards killed slovakia
 
Command & Conquer: White Alert was an iconic real-time strategy game, spinning off from the main franchise. The plot has time travellers assassinating Mussolini, which inadvertently leads to King Edward (under 'advice' from Queen Anastasia) invading Europe to "civilise" it from communism.

You play either as the heavy-armed but slow Imperials or the faster, lighter-armed Allied Soviets. A win for the AS sees a liberated Europe while a win for the Empire sees Anastasia, having killed her husband, sitting in the old Winter Palace.

White Alert II assumed a Soviet victory and a mirror version of WW3: a union of hyper-capitalist South American juntas invade a USSR-allied "USSA". This would take a more tongue-in-cheek approach with British mystic Albert Crawley behind the Lima Pact, a Mount Rushmore with union leader heads, and 'stylised' (cough) women's uniforms.

White Alert III went fully for tongue-in-cheek and had the last British royal time-travel to kill Trotsky. In this new 1990s, the Anglo-Saxon Empire is on the USSR's doorstep but a new third power, the liberal-oligarch Asian Economic Union, is attacking both of you. This is famous for the meme "the one place uncorrupted by Bolsheviks.....[stifled laugh] UNDER THE SEA!!"
 
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