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AH Run-downs, summaries and general gubbins

Prince/Princess of Ireland: honorary title for the heir apparent after the Act of Union, replacing the Prince of Wales (moved to second child in 1801), as a patronising gesture to placate the Irish. The gap between Princess Charlotte and Prince Bertie - due to King William's lack of legit issue - was an embarrassment that satirists and Irish nationalists made hay of, and so Bertie was pressured to spend time in Ireland.

Prince Bertie's Irish visits were marked by lavish parties and a stream of mistresses, which made him extremely popular in parts of Dublin and Belfast but a loathed man in most of the country, where the famine had killed so many. Rural violence and nationalist demands both exploded, literally in 1866 with the four-day Fenian Uprising. Bertie was informally banned and left a shaken man.

Prince Albert Victor would visit a very different Ireland under home rule in 1901 and was seen as a feeble presence by all corners of Irish politics. His attempts to get involved weakened parliament's hand and boosted the nationalists, and so Prince George made a formal visit in 1919 to mark the handover to the new republican government.

"Prince of Ireland" remains a derogatory term for a failing son of privilege.
 
Not Much, But It's Something
The United States of America, 2033.

The Democratic Party: the party of Roosevelt, Kennedy and Obama is increasingly hearkening back to its halcyon New Deal Coalition days. I mean, the parallels are there - an economic recession, dominating majorities across the nation, expansionist regimes in Europe and Asia ...
The Progressives: Increasingly the leading wing of the Democratic Party, the broad-tent faction is the ideological home of anyone between Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. While they have become the quiet majority, it'll be some time until they become as entrenched as ...
The New Democrats: Once boasting the likes of Obama and Pelosi (and later Jeffries and Harris), the centrist wing of the center-left has been somewhat dislodged from pole position post-Sixth Party System. Still, it remains a major faction thanks to its deep roots and monied interests.
The Communitarians: The new kids on the block are ardent supporters of stuff like agricorp regulations, but remain ever-so-silent on social issues. Will probably be a major player in a decade or two, but until then expect Fredrickson to tie everything back to farming subsidies.
The Blue Dogs: Oh how the mighty have fallen. Once, they boasted such statewide institutions as Kent Conrad and Joe Manchin; now, they're down to Jared Golden and a handful of representatives. Their social ambivalence turns off the progressives, their fiscal conservatism alienates the communitarians, and the New Dems still remember their blocking BBB at every turn. All in all, it's all looking a bit glum.
The Republican Party: turns out, there's not much to do but tear each other to shreds when half of your rising stars lose re-election and half your governorships flip in one midterm. Have they forgotten about the midterms? It probably doesn't matter.

The Reaganites: Jumped onto the Trump train when it was going fine, then jumped off when Gabbard blew the economy to shreds. Think Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp, or more recently Frank LaRose. Doesn't look like they're going anywhere, though it's unclear what is keeping them around.
The Trumpists: Andy Ogles is shouting about how this wouldn't have happened if the Gabbard-era GOP had stuck with being "the party of Trump", so it seems the purity trials have well and truly begun. They've still got an influence, but it seems that the RNC has its knives out for them.
The Moderates: Somewhat diminished after Chris Sununu lost re-election and Lisa Murkowski ragequit the Senate, but they seem to be making a comeback statewide - particularly, the upcoming Connecticut special senate election. Whether Erin Stewart turns out to be another Allan Fung remains to be seen.
The Libertarians: The social liberals went to the Democrats, the Never Trumpers went to the Republican moderates and the Mises Caucuses are just Trumpists, which leaves only the most insane of AnCaps. Woo-hoo.
The Patriotic Front: And now, the insane asylum. The same people that called the murder of Vanessa McCoy a "strike against groomerism" and united the various militias hiding in the Palouse boonies. The psychos demanding a "holy crusade" against the Ossoff administration and the "deep state".
Everyone else: The Republicans practically disintegrated and no one other than the Big Two could win an electoral vote? Christ.

The People's Party: Mostly the old Green Party. Not really a major player anywhere outside of the PNW, Chicago, and Vermont, but they have gotten demsocs across the line in a few primaries.
The Forward Party: Contrarian neoliberalism really isn't as popular as it used to be.
The Traditionalist Worker's Front: This is where all the Dore fans went after Belden hijacked the MPP. Not doing too well now that Hinkle's jumped ship and Maupin's fled to Thailand. Essentially, it's genocide denial and social reactionaries, all dressed up in red.
The United Utah Alliance: Chugging along nicely after they joined up with the Utah Democrats. Still only got 35% in the gubernatorial race, though.
The Green Party: Their 2032 campaign plank called all meat-eaters part of a "Holocowst" (yes they added the italics) and called for full disarmament of the American armed forces, so how well do you think they did?
 
The Kaiserabwesenheit (literally Kaiser's Absence), refers to the period of political turmoil and instability in Germany between 2012 and 2022 due Kaiser Wilhem V making increasingly fewer public appearances amid rumours of declining health, and the simultaneous rise in prominence and influence of his heir and successor Alfred.

Following the death of Empress Consort Elisabeth-Marie in 2014, Wilhelm V went into a period of "seclusion", making few public appearances beyond regular constitutional obligations such as the state opening of the Reichstag, the formal re-appointment of the Lasker Cabinet following the 2016 and 2021 elections and televised addresses. But in the following years speculation over Wilhelm's health grew as he made fewer and fewer public engagements; those he did make were closed off and heavily stage managed. This came to a head in 2020, when Kronprinz Alfred officially opened the Munich Winter Olympics and the Reichstag session, with his father's frail and disoriented appearance at the latter causing national and international concern.

However, German media regulation heavily censors coverage and criticism regarding the royal family. In the previous decade, senior British journalist Patrick Persaud had been all but exiled from Berlin for a decade over a hostile interview of the Kaiser, and several Berlin-based media outlets were fined and faced hostile protests for publishing speculation over the Kaiser's health. As a result of these restrictions, German and international media outlets and online Memex gatherings increasingly referred euphemistically to the Kaiserabwesenheit, as the figure who once dominated the German and international body politic very quickly disappeared from view.

Kaiserabwesenheit also refers to the political changes that occurred during this time, as then-Kronprinz Alfred rose in prominence and influence, taking his father's place at diplomatic and constitutional events and making increasingly direct political interventions. In 2016 Alfred made a controversial trip to Reichswehr soldiers stationed in Malaya, speaking supportively of their mission, in contrast to his father's well-known scepticism of the German-led Malayan Intervention. The next year the Hohenzollern household was effectively purged, with several aides and courtiers close to Wilhelm V dismissed and his siblings stripped of public-facing positions. While as politically conservative as his father, Alfred had different political interest than Wilhelm. He was more interested in environmentalism, population control and the Lasker Cabinet's foreign policy of interventionism and European integration. Close to Reichkanzler Arnold Lasker, the Fifth Lasker cabinet formed in 2021 reflected the Kronprinz's interests; ministers known to be hostile to Alfred and his politics such as Clarissa Ulrich and Rudolph Hipper were demoted or dismissed.

This apparent usurpation led to political unrest and instability. Alfred was held with far less reverence than his father, with memories of 2000s-era financial scandals involving the Kronprinz and his in-laws still lingering. Mass protests organised by both the far right and the far left against the alleged StillerPutsch (silent putsch) that had took place within the German government.

Even much of the Junkers establishment were sceptical or downright hostile to this emerging political dynamic. Alfred was referred to by many conservative politicians and commentators as the Gymnasiumkaiser, as Alfred appeared closer to middle-class Gymnasium-educated conservatives such as Lasker than the traditional German aristocracy that was still more loyal to his father. Depending on the commentator, "Gymnasiumkaiser" was either praise for Alfred's more direct, down-to-earth approach or class-based derision over his more direct approach to politics. With lines of accountability and decision-making becoming heavily blurred, the 2021 German elections became an unspoken referendum on the Kaiserabwesenheit, with Lasker's governing coalition re-elected by a surprisingly slender margin.

While international observers (and German-language media outlets based in Vienna, Zurich and Amsterdam) speculated that Wilhelm V may have been suffering from Parkinson's Disease, dementia or a similar degenerative illness, neither the Hohenzollern family nor the German government has ever publicly commented on his health. Wilhelm's official death certificate, released to the media after his state funeral, listed his cause of death as simply "old age."
 
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Prince/Princess of Ireland: honorary title for the heir apparent after the Act of Union, replacing the Prince of Wales (moved to second child in 1801), as a patronising gesture to placate the Irish. The gap between Princess Charlotte and Prince Bertie - due to King William's lack of legit issue - was an embarrassment that satirists and Irish nationalists made hay of, and so Bertie was pressured to spend time in Ireland.

Prince Bertie's Irish visits were marked by lavish parties and a stream of mistresses, which made him extremely popular in parts of Dublin and Belfast but a loathed man in most of the country, where the famine had killed so many. Rural violence and nationalist demands both exploded, literally in 1866 with the four-day Fenian Uprising. Bertie was informally banned and left a shaken man.

Prince Albert Victor would visit a very different Ireland under home rule in 1901 and was seen as a feeble presence by all corners of Irish politics. His attempts to get involved weakened parliament's hand and boosted the nationalists, and so Prince George made a formal visit in 1919 to mark the handover to the new republican government.

"Prince of Ireland" remains a derogatory term for a failing son of privilege.

That last line really makes the excerpt pop. "Prince of ireland" as a more colourful way to say "failson" is amazing. Alternate history of colloquial expressions in general is such a great way to give your world substance.
 
THE FORMER RUSSIAN FEDERATION, C. 2033

THE CONTINUED
Russo-Ukrainian war despite the retaking of Crimea by Ukraine in April 2023 would seal the fates of both Vladimir Putin and the old Russian Federation as more "moderate" members of his inner circle staged a coup as the Moscow Riots, fueled by disillusioned servicemen and Moscow citizens, consumed the Russian capital. However, the divided provisional administration under Daniil Yegorov and Alexei Navalny would fail to improve the ruined Russian economy, swelling public discontent and prompting far-right Putinists - led by neo-Tsarist magnate Konstantin Malofeyev - to declare the formation of a new, "purified" regime to eliminate the Western-backed Federal Republic. Navalny was forced to request military and humanitarian aid from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United Nations (UN), leading to the formation of the United Nations Interim Authority. The United States has also taken a proactive role in the Russian Far East, implementing a "Marshall Plan" for the region and establishing various business ventures. The Department of State continues to deny the construction of American air bases in the region.

Anti-Kremlin sentiments are not united under the banner of the Black Hundreds, however; leftist opposition to the austerity policies demanded by Brussels and the IMF has exploded - first as the radical Octoberist Front (then led by Mikhail Lobanov), before reorganizing itself into partisan conflict under the flag of the Worker's Red Army, spearheaded by the likes of Nikolai Bondarenko. This faction aims to re-establish the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and restore communist policies across Russia, though its success so far has been limited.

The Putin-era Russian Federation still clings to life in the Ural Mountains, however; a provisional regime under the de jure leadership of Aleksey Chekunkov was formed in June 2023 as Lavrov was found dead in his Black Sea dacha and Mishustin formally surrendered to anti-government forces in Yekaterinburg. Refusing to align with the hyper-reactionaries in the Black Hundreds and deriding the Reds and the Provisional Government as "Western patsies", the military-run autocracy marches on in the Urals, seemingly determined to continue the ways of the old regime. Who actually prefers them to the alternatives is another matter entirely.

That is not to say, however, that greater powers beyond the Europeans in Brussels and the Americans in Washington have not attempted to make use of the situation. The People's Republic of China - reeling from the failure of its attempted annexation of Taiwan in 2032 and presumably in need of a propaganda victory - has made aggressive moves in the region, annexing the regions of Zabylasky, Amur, Jewish and Primorsky under the guise of "regional security", though reports of drilling operations and labor camps being opened under the eye of the PLA have come as no surprise to Zhongnanhai analysts in the West.



Screenshot 2022-11-27 at 10.52.28 AM.png
Map indicates administrative regions mostly or fully controlled by each faction.
1669549812123.png
 
Great post.
Thanks!

You have to wonder what exactly is going on in the North Caucasus
I haven't really thought it out Mostly just chaos

and how nominal is the level of control that the Russian Provisional Government (or should it be the Russian Federal Republic mentioned above?)/the UN has over places like Chechnya.
Currently, Chechnya is being run by Adam Osmayev and the Chechen National Congress. They are openly secessionist, but as things stand they still have a long way to go with rooting out all of Kadyrov's associates, so they remain under Russian control.

The RFR is what the Federation was renamed to post-Putin; the Provisional Government is just an emergency fixture, where the UN has taken over key functions but the Russian government remains in control of civil matters.
 
Thanks!


I haven't really thought it out Mostly just chaos


Currently, Chechnya is being run by Adam Osmayev and the Chechen National Congress. They are openly secessionist, but as things stand they still have a long way to go with rooting out all of Kadyrov's associates, so they remain under Russian control.

The RFR is what the Federation was renamed to post-Putin; the Provisional Government is just an emergency fixture, where the UN has taken over key functions but the Russian government remains in control of civil matters.
Fair.
Ahh, thanks for the detailed explanation. That sort of weird, unsatisfying halfway-house arrangement makes perfect sense in the context of a civil war.
Appreciate the clarification on the terminology, that's helpful.
 
THE FORMER RUSSIAN FEDERATION, C. 2033
Alright, I'll bite. The map borders look oddly familiar, but I'm fine with it.

Doubt that Lobanov would pivot towards full-on militant action against Navalny of all people, but eh. I find it funny that Bryansk, Tambov and St. Petersburg are red. can't believe Beglov stayed governor until 2033 smh

Currently, Chechnya is being run by Adam Osmayev and the Chechen National Congress. They are openly secessionist, but as things stand they still have a long way to go with rooting out all of Kadyrov's associates, so they remain under Russian control.
I recall a very interesting bit from Abubakar Yangulbayev's interview with Skat.media:

1669582745955.png

The People's Republic of China - reeling from the failure of its attempted annexation of Taiwan in 2032 and presumably in need of a propaganda victory - has made aggressive moves in the region, annexing the regions of Zabylasky, Amur, Jewish and Primorsky under the guise of "regional security", though reports of drilling operations and labor camps being opened under the eye of the PLA have come as no surprise to Zhongnanhai analysts in the West.
Karma (in the form of Chinese Haishenwai) comes to bite all those who clamored for Russian Kherson and Russian Guryev

Alexei Chekunkov must be really annoyed

Do have to wonder how the Furgals are doing, and if reports regarding the labor camps have more or less weakened separatist sentiments in the UN-occupied Far East
 
Alright, I'll bite. The map borders look oddly familiar, but I'm fine with it.
I'm not very good at drawing borders, so it's a YAPms template. The actual lines of control are definitely more varied and fluid.

Doubt that Lobanov would pivot towards full-on militant action against Navalny of all people, but eh. I find it funny that Bryansk, Tambov and St. Petersburg are red. can't believe Beglov stayed governor until 2033 smh


I recall a very interesting bit from Abubakar Yangulbayev's interview with Skat.media:

View attachment 62613
Hmm. Well the CNC rises via fair elections as a big-tent camp of moderate democrats and a non-binding referendum has backed independence. Independence, however, is an issue that's being punted down the line thanks to pressing events.

Do have to wonder how the Furgals are doing, and if reports regarding the labor camps have more or less weakened separatist sentiments in the UN-occupied Far East
The Furgals are fine - still in government, but increasingly out-clouted by the UN authority and the men from Washington.
 
WHAT IF THE XFL WAS DONE IN BRITAIN?

Vince McMahon tried to bring WWE "Attitude Era" style to football, seeing both a potential market overseas and a way to 'get in the ground floor' on the growing soccer market in the US like he couldn't with gridiron.

WWE-style elements included deliberate aggro, kayfabe storylines, suggestive cheerleaders and 'grid girls' from racing , and Loser Leaves Town rather than relegation (as there was not yet a lower league). Team members were poached from lower divisions to form:

London Riot
Belfast Rage
Manc Maniacs
Glasgow Neds
Liverpool Hitmen
Oxford Toffs


(The last was deliberately posh themed as a 'heel' faction)

The lack of grassroots fan support and the crass Attitude gimmicks would have made this a failure anyway, but what really doomed it was that an aggro-centric football tournament aimed at young men attracted a LOT of young men looking to break stuff & have fights. Channel 5 dropped coverage of Soccer X League after two disastrous matches; McMahon kept going with US broadcasts but venues began cancelling. The second half of the season was played in America, with the teams flown out to Florida, but audiences left in droves when Soccer X was just a sports show & lacked any hooligans kicking off.
 
The lack of grassroots fan support and the crass Attitude gimmicks would have made this a failure anyway, but what really doomed it was that an aggro-centric football tournament aimed at young men attracted a LOT of young men looking to break stuff & have fights.

WHO COULD HAVE POSSIBLY SEEN THIS ONE COMING
 
WHO COULD HAVE POSSIBLY SEEN THIS ONE COMING
Literally calling a team the “Glasgow Neds” and being surprised when your matches attract a slightly uncouth crowd.

(That being said, I doubt a league run by Vince McMahon would know what a ned is, they’d probably go for a really stupidly generic Scottish name like “Glasgow Highlanders” or something)
 
TIME Persons of the Year, 2008-2018
  • 2008: Scott McKay, President-Elect of the United States
    • "Only 39 years old, Scott McKay is not only the youngest person elected President but the representative of a new generation and a new kind of politics. His rapid rise, pugilistic style, ardent cult following, and skillful use of new media like YouTube demonstrates the scale of changes in the terrain of politics, and his willingness to endorse political solutions that would once have been thought of as radical - universal rights to healthcare and housing, transformative changes to labor law and criminal jurisprudence, and government intervention in the economy to a degree not seen since the New Deal - demonstrates that the financial crisis might have overturned American politics for a generation or more..."
  • 2009: Mateo Fábregas de Arciniega, President of the European Central Bank
    • "How will the global financial system respond to the political changes of the past few years? According to some, the center of gravity has begun shifting east - due in part to concerns over populism in America, but also due to the efforts of European authorities, not least Mateo Fábregas, to turn this crisis into an opportunity for Europe to make its case on the global stage..."
  • 2010: The Protestor
    • "Whether through the ballot box, like the conservative activists who flipped both houses of Congress; through the megaphone and poster, like the students who helped bring about the fall of governments in Tunisia, Italy, and Chile; or through less savory methods, like Islamist radicals in Uzbekistan and the assassins of Haitian President Serge Sainté, 2010 has been a year of mass movements bringing about change..."
  • 2011: Nicolas Martins Caldeira, Pope John XXIV of the Roman Catholic Church
    • "Pope Benedict's resignation stunned billions of believers across the world. His successor, the first pope from outside Europe in centuries, will not face an easy task - he faces all the challenges of modernity, as well as widespread doubts about the Catholic Church's efforts to root out child abuse and his own ambiguous ties, as Archbishop of São Paulo, with the military dictatorship..."
  • 2012: Guo Dingyi, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China
    • "Guo Dingyi's first public appearance after becoming paramount leader of China shows a new kind of leadership; since taking power, Guo has engaged with the Chinese public, liberalized laws on freedom of expression in a number of key areas, and spoken extensively to the foreign press. Only time will tell if Guo's leadership represents a more open, freer, less technocratic China than his predecessors'..."
  • 2013: Joe McWilliams, CEO of Arena Systems and Aelita Aerospace and President of the McWilliams Foundation
    • "Nothing about McWilliams' childhood in suburban Utah or his hippie adolescence prefigured the first act of his career, revolutionizing the software industry through his work at Arena Systems, which pioneered database systems and Software as a Service practices that have since become common throughout the world. But his second and third acts - his work at Aelita creating the modern private spaceflight industry, and his work with the McWilliams Foundation supporting causes from women's education to organic farming - seem less like accidents and more like the culmination of a plan to change the world decades in the making..."
  • 2014: Margaret Aitken, First Minister of Scotland
    • "Her efforts in politics have brought Scottish nationalism from a fringe movement, a mile wide but an inch deep, to a 52% victory at the polls this year. Now she faces an even greater challenge; that of shepherding her country through the process of independence...
  • 2015: The Healers
    • "The global MERS pandemic shocked the world and forced massive changes in our way of life. In times like this, it is obvious how much we rely on the work of millions of doctors, nurses, and healthcare workers around the globe, from those who establish healthcare policy from the heights of power (such as WHO Director-General Aruna Biswas and 'MERS czar' Walter Kennedy) to individual practitioners from the villages of rural Africa to the lights of global cities..."
  • 2016: Alan Schiro, President of the United States
    • "Many dismissed him in his first term for his low-key style - next to larger-than-life personalities like McKay, Guo, or his own Vice President, Schiro looked flat and boring. That has proved to be a mistake. Schiro is not a capital-P Personality - but he is a President, and as his successes in pursuing comprehensive immigration reform and pushing Jaysh al-Islam out of Syria have shown, that is more than enough for him to make his own place in the news..."
  • 2017: The Taste Makers
    • "New technologies and institutions like Tubel and Vosky have opened the floodgates of culture. American audiences, especially Millennials, no longer have tastes as insular or limited as their forebears. They don't just listen to music from traditional sources, but listen to artists from outside the traditional paths to fame like Robin Airey and Deb0nayr, or artists from outside the Anglosphere like Carla Abril and BRITE; they watch Nordic detective shows and Korean soap operas and eight-second comedy videos on Rodeo; they read novels by up-and-coming authors like Peter Nilssen and Ye Xiong..."
  • 2018: Maciej Kołakowski, President of Poland
    • "Perhaps the greatest success story of the post-Soviet world has been Poland - in Kolakowski's lifetime, it has advanced from Jaruzelski's grim dictatorship to a First World democracy. Now, with Leonenko's increasingly bellicose Union State on its eastern frontier and a Europe increasingly unsure of its purpose to its west, Poland finds itself on the fulcrum of history - and Kolakowski, fresh off a controversial referendum on the powers of the Polish Presidency, might well be the one to tip it one way or the other..."
 
"The biography holds a far greater place in Anglo-Canadian history publishing (both academic and popular) than in that of America. Conversely, the 'broad description' style favored by American authors is less common in Anglo-Canadian writing. This is in large part downstream of ideology and history: even under Burnham, who promoted biographical propaganda as a way of creating and promoting an ideal image of Communist heroism, the focus on the individual was fiercely contested as a relic of 'great man' theories of history, and prominent examples of the genre like Profiles In Courage and Brothers In Arms deliberately aimed at 'depersonalizing' biography by including multiple chapter-length portraits in one work.
"The Pauling era put another nail in the coffin of biography. Not only were works like Joe Hill, American Songbird and Agitator: The Life and Work of Bill Haywoodderided as ahistorical, they also became ideologically unacceptable, hagiographies in a canon of Marxist saints and martyrs posthumously enlisted in the service of the Burnham-Lovestone-Moses troika, their would-be vicars on Earth. Meanwhile, new historical styles, influenced by EduCom's translation of Braudel's Material Civilizationand republication of Hobsbawm's The First Global Revolution as well as the newly-formalized disciplines of Gender Studies and Ethnic Studies, displaced them. The textbooks and syllabi created in the wake of the 1962 Rossiter Commission deemphasized biography in favor of 'system-level' perspectives - quantitative analyses of the material conditions of the past - and 'person-level' perspectives - views of history through the eyes of 'ordinary people'.
"If biography has survived in the American literary universe, it is in journalism, not the academy. Robert Caro's 1966 article Fall of a Lone Star, originally published in 1848 Magazine, reformulated the longform profile for the new era - he came to bury Lyndon Johnson, not to praise him, but his criticism was tinged with a note of admiration and embedded within a broad analysis of the world Johnson came from and the things that made him tick. His spirit of ambivalence and curiosity created a new niche for the biographical profile - figures could be analyzed because their stories were informative or interesting, not merely as paragons or villains. The Reagan era saw some of Caro's colleagues, like Janet Malcolm and John McPhee, extend the genre to lower-level figures, further accommodating high-level analysis to low-level perspectives..."
 
WILL CHUKA UMUNNA RESIGN?!
OH mate, ohhh mate
Labour backing the Tories policy on gender self-identity like its still 2020.
FUCK
Alliance: Naomi Long is STILL ALLIANCE LEADER. Lena! Come quick! She’s STILL HERE!
I mean she is! @Sideways look, she's still leader
UKIPs head of Media Carl Benjamin
This aged quite well actually
I'm stopping here. its 36 degrees in Cheltenham
it was 37 degrees actually! Christ
 
America, June 2023.

Forward - Notably, President Yang's political party which was supposed to transform the political landscape by getting working-class people of all stripes to reject the duopoly or I suppose the tripoly and embrace Yangism did well among the opposite of what Yang tried to target the party towards - Asians and Rich white people. Yang's doing good in polls for some reason.
Democratic - I feel bad for Vice President Booker, given how Yang abandoned the Democratic Party to start his own vehicle on a whim and now the field is 2020 minus Biden/Bernie/Bloomberg, with a few new additions being sprinkled in although Ro lost so there are three progressive candidates. The establishment will presumably coalesce and support one candidate for reasons which should be fairly obvious.
MAGA - Trump is running on his own, I am sure that the Republican Party is hoping that he dies or gets arrested between now and May 2024.
Republican - Following Trump leaving them on a whim - the Republican Party will presumably select Ron DeSantis as the nominee. I think he is one of the few people who did well even with some MAGA hag splitting the vote, man 2022 was weird with the Democrats losing New York of all places including Schumer due to Yang even as many states which would never normally vote Democratic voted Democratic.

Current polling
Democratic candidate 27%
Donald Trump 24%
Republican candidate 23%
Andrew Yang 22%
 
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