Meppo's Electoral Molehill

[Meppo]

Inspired by @Peppermint Cardboard who I happen to share a server with

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24 AUG 2023, THURSDAY | 23:32
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1. Hawley concerned by damage in Lorraine brought on by "devastating" hurricanes
2. Chinese generals visit Abyssinia following invitation by Tsige
3. Sicilian PM praises Hawley after summit: "He's a kindred spirit"
4. China cancels summit, spurns Russia over Amur dispute
5. Atlantean ex-PM Andrew Cuomo to be jailed for 15 years
6. General Roy Flynn appointed Minister of National Defence
7. Russophone ready-to-eat chain to open first branch in New France
8. Korea votes as "the bishop" seeks third term
9. Murder in Wilno stirs tensions between the Commonwealth's communities
10. Former CL captain Gerard Hilberg passes away at 55 after losing battle against cancer

 

[Meppo]

dumb The Owl House rambling incoming

The Hundred Years' Night (est. ~1830—1929) was a series of intermittent military conflicts fought between the witch kingdoms of Esternia and Latissa, primarily over the Sternum's rich ore and catalyst deposits as well as ancient Esternian claims to the Latissan throne. The war grew into a broader military-political struggle involving most of the Boiling Isles's witch and demon polities, fueled by nationalism on both sides.

The Hundred Years' Night had a massive impact on the Boiling Isles, dramatically and permanently affecting its technology, demographics and overall appearance. For an estimated 99 years, five generations of queens, kings and despots fought for control of the Sternum, utilizing ever-growing innovations in applied magic and tactics to battle each other. In addition to warfare, resulting magical overgrowths as well as naturally-occurring plagues significantly reduced population numbers and ravaged scores of settlements. The Hundred Years' Night ultimately ended on Augury 23rd with the Treaty of Glandia and a formal Latissan victory, as the city-state had successfully pushed Esternian forces back and bled their coffers dry.

Traditional Boiling Isles historiography has typically defined the Hundred Years' Night as one of the Savage Ages' central events, often calling it the primary cause of both the explosion in wild witches' numbers and the crisis of religion and localism that precluded the Empire. The devastation brought on by the Night produced thousands of itinerant witches and demons, more often than not former conscripts in the Sternian kingdoms' mercenary armies and/or their orphans, who were left with nothing but a desire for vengeance and – quite commonly – a handful of unusual magical traditions passed through generations. Forming or otherwise flocking to sects of varying degrees of radicalism, wild witches and wizards came to use their often-forbidden magical disciplines to rob merchants and terrorize existing city-states. The collapse of Esternia and the financial troubles that plagued surrounding city-states further accelerated the rise of wild witches, as well as movements partly intertwined with them – among them vroomer gangs, demon rights militias and followers of the Titan's Word, which would play a central role in the Unification Crusades forty years later.

 

[Meppo]

Heavily inspired by one of @Gerbbro's lists over on AH.com, focused on African-Americans remaining a Republican demographic - albeit with heavy artistic license taken.

Spoiler: some hearty graphics

 

[Meppo]

with apologies to @Steve Brinson and anyone more knowledgeable on random Imperial and Soviet personalities than I am

Prime Ministers of the Russian Federal Democratic Republic

1946-1951: Prokopy Klimushkin (Socialist Revolutionary)

'46 (coalition) def. Vladimir Lazarevsky (Progressive), Fyodor Raskolnikov (RSLP), Ivan Gamov (Christian Democratic)​

'49 (coalition) def. Roman Gul (Progressive), Nikolai Kuznetsov (RSLP), Ivan Gamov (Christian Democratic), Aleksandr Novosyolov (Social Democratic)​

1951-1953: Georgy Malenkov (RSLP)

'51 (coalition) def. Roman Gul (Progressive), Yury Sablin (Socialist Revolutionary), Dmitry Borodin (Christian Democratic)​

1953-1958: Ilya Chelyshov (Progressive)

'53 (majority) def. Georgy Malenkov (RSLP), Yury Sablin (Socialist Revolutionary), Dmitry Borodin (Christian Democratic)​

1958-1962: Nikita Khrushchyov ✞ (RSLP)

'58 (majority) def. Ilya Chelyshov (Progressive), Yury Voitsekhovsky (Christian Democratic), Nikolai Alovert (Socialist Revolutionary), Igor Shatilov (Social Democratic)​

1962-1963: Nikolai Voznesensky (RSLP)
1963-1968: Lev Tsvilling (RSLP)

'63 (majority) def. Boris Bobrishchev-Pushkin (Progressive), Yury Voitsekhovsky (Christian Democratic), Vsevolod Taskin (Social Democratic)​

1968-19XX: Georgy Ignatyev (Progressive)

'68 (coalition) def. Lev Tsvilling (RSLP), Mikhail Volokitin (Christian Democratic), Aleksandr Kozhevnikov (Union of the New Left), Vsevolod Taskin (Social Democratic)​

 

[Meppo]

with apologies to @Steve Brinson and anyone more knowledgeable on random Imperial and Soviet personalities than I am

Prime Ministers of the Russian Federal Democratic Republic

1946-1949: Prokopy Klimushkin (Socialist Revolutionary)

'46 (coalition) def. Vladimir Lazarevsky (Progressive), Fyodor Raskolnikov (RSLP), Ivan Gamov (Christian Democratic)​

'49 (coalition) def. Roman Gul (Progressive), Nikolai Kuznetsov (RSLP), Ivan Gamov (Christian Democratic), Aleksandr Novosyolov (Social Democratic)​

1951-1953: Georgy Malenkov (RSLP)

'51 (coalition) def. Roman Gul (Progressive), Yury Sablin (Socialist Revolutionary), Dmitry Borodin (Christian Democratic)​

1953-1958: Ilya Chelyshov (Progressive)

'53 (majority) def. Georgy Malenkov (RSLP), Yury Sablin (Socialist Revolutionary), Dmitry Borodin (Christian Democratic)​

1958-1962: Nikita Khrushchyov ✞ (RSLP)

'58 (majority) def. Ilya Chelyshov (Progressive), Yury Voitsekhovsky (Christian Democratic), Nikolai Alovert (Socialist Revolutionary), Igor Shatilov (Social Democratic)​

1962-1963: Nikolai Voznesensky (RSLP)
1963-1968: Lev Tsvilling (RSLP)

'63 (majority) def. Boris Bobrishchev-Pushkin (Progressive), Yury Voitsekhovsky (Christian Democratic), Vsevolod Taskin (Social Democratic)​

1968-19XX: Georgy Ignatyev (Progressive)

'68 (coalition) def. Lev Tsvilling (RSLP), Mikhail Volokitin (Christian Democratic), Georgy Kozhevnikov (Union of the New Left), Vsevolod Taskin (Social Democratic)​

...

2003-2011: Valery Gartung (Labor)

'03 (majority) def. Vitaly Savitsky (Progressive), Stanislav Govorukhin (Rodina), Vladimir Golovlyov (NCD), Vasily Starodubtsev (Agrarian Russia)​

'08 (majority) def. Konstantin Remchukov (Progressive), Yevgeny Mikhailov (Rodina), German Galkin (NCD)​

2011-2013: Oksana Dmitriyeva (Labor)
2013-2023: Vyacheslav Makarov (Progressive)

'13 (coalition) def. Oksana Dmitriyeva (Labor), German Galkin (NCD), Yevgeny Mikhailov (Rodina), Yunir Kutluzhugin (Ural National)​

'18 (majority) def. Ilya Ponomaryov (Labor), Pavel Krasheninnikov (NCD), Yunir Kutluzhugin (Ural National), Yevgeny Mikhailov (Rodina)​

2023-20XX: Sergei Tsukasov (Labor)

'23 (coalition) def. Dmitry Chernyshevsky (Progressive), Pavel Tikhonenko (NCD), Ruslan Gabbasov (Ural National)​

 

[Time Enough]

...

2003-2011: Valery Gartung (Labor)

'03 (majority) def. Vitaly Savitsky (Progressive), Stanislav Govorukhin (Rodina), Vladimir Golovlyov (NCD), Vasily Starodubtsev (Agrarian Russia)​

'08 (majority) def. Konstantin Remchukov (Progressive), Yevgeny Mikhailov (Rodina), German Galkin (NCD)​

2011-2013: Oksana Dmitriyeva (Labor)
2013-2023: Vyacheslav Makarov (Progressive)

'13 (coalition) def. Oksana Dmitriyeva (Labor Bloc), German Galkin (NCD), Yevgeny Mikhailov (Rodina), Yunir Kutluzhugin (Ural National)​

'18 (majority) def. Ilya Ponomaryov (Labor Bloc), Pavel Krasheninnikov (NCD), Yunir Kutluzhugin (Ural National), Yevgeny Mikhailov (Rodina)​

2023-20XX: Sergei Tsukasov (Labor)

'23 (coalition) def. Dmitry Chernyshevsky (Progressive), Pavel Tikhonenko (NCD), Ruslan Gabbasov (Ural National)​

I do enjoy how organic this feels, do enjoy a Democratic Russia idea, particularly enjoy the appearance of Oskana Dmitriyeva who has strong ‘moderate social democratic wonk’ energy to her.

 

[Meppo]

I do enjoy how organic this feels, do enjoy a Democratic Russia idea, particularly enjoy the appearance of Oskana Dmitriyeva who has strong ‘moderate social democratic wonk’ energy to her.

Thank you! I spent quite a lot of time pondering the choices — Dmitriyeva ITTL is, broadly speaking, a more liberal but not too liberal figure appointed to succeed the one-time hero of the engineers and foe of the mafia (after the 2010 protest wave in the Balkans brings up the issue of property in Montenegro).

 

[Meppo]

@Blackentheborg @Comrade Izaac your works inspired this

President: Head of Komi Republic Viktor Vorobyov (nonpartisan)
Prime Minister: State Duma deputy Alexei Navalny (Russia of the Future)

Deputy PMs:
- State Duma deputy and fmr. Director of ACF Ivan Zhdanov (Russia of the Future)
- head of the St. Petersburg Union of Gun Owners and fmr. editor of Tyuremny Vestnik Dmitry Lutsenko (Libertarian)
- deputy Minister of Economic Development Sergei Guriyev (nonpartisan)
...

MinAgriculture: fmr. Minister of Agriculture of Komi Republic Denis Sharonov (nonpartisan)
MinConstruction: State Duma deputy for Nenets AO Mikhail Kushnir (SocMovement)
MinCulture: co-founder of INOYEKINO Yevgeny Kras (nonpartisan)
MinDefence: blogger Yan Matveyev (Russia of the Future)
MinFarEastDevelopment: State Duma deputy for Primorsky Krai Gennady Shulga (SocMovement)
MinDigit: fmr. Executive Director of Internet Defense Society Mikhail Klimaryov (Russia of the Future)
MinEconDevelopment: fmr. head of the "Independent Fuel Union" analytical center Grigory Bazhenov (Libertarian)
MinEducation: fmr. Executive Director of Novocollege Sergei Chernyshov (Russia of the Future)
MinEmergency: St. Petersburg municipal legislator Nikolai Gromov (nonpartisan)
MinEnergy: fmr. deputy Minister of Energy Vladimir Milov (Russia of the Future)
MinFinances: fmr. Navalny HQ coordinator in Bashkortostan Liliya Chanysheva (Russia of the Future)
MinFA: Moscow legislator Veronika Gells (Constitutional Democrats)
MinHealth: fmr. Tomsk legislator David Avetyan (nonpartisan)
MinIA: State Duma deputy Yevgeny Stupin (SocMovement)
MinJustice: attorney and fmr. press secretary for Head of Ingushetia Kaloy Akhilgov (nonpartisan)
MinLabour: fmr. Republic of Bashkortostan legislator Dmitry Chuvilin (SocMovement)
MinNatResEco: ecology expert Nikolai Lyaskin (Russia of the Future)
MinScience: leading researcher for IB Komi SC UB RAS Vladimir Elsakov (nonpartisan)
MinSport: fmr. Moscow legislator Dmitry Loktev (SocMovement)
MinTransport: journalist Sergei Aslanyan (nonpartisan)
MinVeterans: fmr. executive director of "Nochlezhka" Darya Baibakova (nonpartisan)

don't ask me about deputy prime ministers please

 

[Meppo]

hopefully the last The Owl House-based bullshit list

side note: I intended to write this exact list in time for the series finale, but I couldn't muster the brainpower to write it at the time

Spoiler: the typical inhabitant of the Left Palm

Great Nezi and Nezini of the Shuya, known to the Boiling Isles as the Principality of the Left Palm

1600-1605: Gieslav I "the Nameless" (Perstevic)
[slain in third war against Lichabod of Crania]
1605-1616: Pavlo I "the Mace" (Perstevic)
[incinerated along with wife and children during the Battle of Falanga]
1616-1620: Kasimo I "the Judge" (Perstevic)
[died of heart stroke]
1620-1626: Megara "the Middle" (Perstevic)
[de jure as her son-nephew's regent; poisoned during meal]
1626-1630: Mezen "the Small" (Perstevic)
[de jure as his nephew's regent; beheaded over role in the poisoning of his sister]
1628-1630: crown disputed between Mezen "the Small", Rukomil Kasimovic, and Ladian bandit king "Gieslav Pavlovic"
1630-1678: Rukomil I "Ironhand" (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
1678-1684: Gieslav II (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
1684-1693: Verezo (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
[couped by High Seers loyal to Rukomil Gieslavovic; beheaded over conspiracy with Bonesborough pirate Lothia the Child-Eater]
1693-1723: Rukomil II "Hedgehand" (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
1723-1725: Kasimo II (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
[died from frostbite during the War of the Mandible, courtesy of Ribaldian baron Vernand Vernworth]
1725-1763: Tifano "the Prodigal" (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
1763-1789: Rukomil III "Markhand" (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
[died of heart stroke during the War of Triceptan Succession]
1789-1794: Pavlo II (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
[assassinated by officer Kosmo Rudic during botched coup over loss in the War of Triceptan Succession and alleged bouts of madness]
1794-1804: Gieslav III (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
1794-1795: crown disputed between General Rukomor Timorovic, Nez of Perst Gieslav Tifanovic, and the Great Nez's son Rukomil Pavlovic
[incinerated over "tyranny" following conspiracy led by army officers, dissident Seers]
1804-1834: Rukomil IV "Blackhand" (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
1834-1848: Murat I (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
[consumed by a Greater Basilisk during the Ribaldian incursion into the Left Arm]
1848-1854: Debora "the Humerian" (Perstevic-Kasimovic, née Owennic)
[de jure as her son's regent; abdicated following the end of the Ribaldian incursion into the Left Arm]
1854-1881: Rukomil V "Bilehand" (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
[assassinated by Sternian demon hunter Joschig Helsinger]
1881-1896: Murat II "the Charmed" (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
1896-1907: Bashil (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
[de jure as his nephew's regent; abdicated following the loss of Humeria]
1907-1921: Rukomil VI "Longhand" (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
[forced to abdicate over reports of mental incapacity]
1921-1930: Ramon (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
[forced to abdicate over "tyranny" against the Seers]
1930-1948: Gieslav IV "the Peacemaker" (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
1948-1961: Geidar (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
[abdicated over falling health]
1961-1972: Rikard "the Zealot" (Perstevic-Kasimovic)
[deposed and executed on behalf of the High Seers' Conspiracy, ostensibly to prevent the firebombing of Perst by the Crusaders for Unity]
1972: Osran (Osranovic)
[de jure as regent for Emperor Belos; signed the terms of annexation into the Empire of the Boiling Isles]

 

[Stikfigur]

@Meppo Is it accurate to say that despite use of Soviet symbolism as strange nationalism for a golden era, the Russian Federation is fundamentally an organization pulled from the cloth of the White Army (considering the structure of the society and Putin's obsessive hatred of Lenin)?

A lot of modern russia uses tsarist symbology and White Russian intellectuals, but its strange when they use symbology of people that transparently would have had them shot in the Russian Civil War.

 

[Meppo]

@Meppo Is it accurate to say that despite use of Soviet symbolism as strange nationalism for a golden era, the Russian Federation is fundamentally an organization pulled from the cloth of the White Army (considering the structure of the society and Putin's obsessive hatred of Lenin)?

A lot of modern russia uses tsarist symbology and White Russian intellectuals, but its strange when they use symbology of people that transparently would have had them shot in the Russian Civil War.

Well you can't really start fully defaming a regime which is still within living memory for many, is seen as a time of social progress and economic stability, and which fought against a regime that sought genocide and massacred 27 million of our own, can you?

I am not exactly an expert here (and, frankly speaking, I doubt I will ever be), but I think that the Russian Federation, if understood to be the regime that has been in place since 2000, is fundamentally on organization based on Putin's whims and horizontal relationships that he's built up in Dresden and/or St. Petersburg. A lot of government and non-government institutions in Russia are the way they are because Putin is invested in keeping his word above the law, as a crime boss does. That there are schizophrenical ideological trappings to it tends to be the case for a lot of political forces in countries with a recent history of regime change, but I do suppose it can be a bit worrying when the President's favorite philosopher is a Nazi apologist who says that the people's fundamental traits are a healthy "sense of rank", a ready deference to authority, and willingness to sacrifice oneself.

Frankly speaking, I was never much of a fan of the theory of modern-day Russia being run in line with Ivan Ilyin's teachings. This is going to sound extremely dumb, but it took until a movie review to be even remotely convinced that there was a grain of truth to the idea. The final 40 minutes of the two-hour review are, broadly speaking, a comparison of previously reviewed World War II-themed movies and tropes the reviewer had deemed common to all of them to theses from Ivan Ilyin's works, starting with an overall detour to 2005, when war drama Shtrafbat won TEFI awards, while Denikin and Ilyin were reburied in the Donskoy Monastery.

Say, @Stikfigur, now that you had reached out to me, I wanted to ask you a question I've been putting off for a while — what hypothetical territorial arrangement of "warlord cliques" in a hypothetical future Russian warlord scenario would you find to be most probable (or least improbable, I suppose)?

 

[Stikfigur]

I am not exactly an expert here (and, frankly speaking, I doubt I will ever be), but I think that the Russian Federation, if understood to be the regime that has been in place since 2000, is fundamentally on organization based on Putin's whims and horizontal relationships that he's built up in Dresden and/or St. Petersburg. A lot of government and non-government institutions in Russia are the way they are because Putin is invested in keeping his word above the law, as a crime boss does.

Frankly speaking, I was never much of a fan of the theory of modern-day Russia being run in line with Ivan Ilyin's teachings. This is going to sound extremely dumb, but it took until a movie review to be even remotely convinced that there was a grain of truth to the idea. The final 40 minutes of the two-hour review are, broadly speaking, a comparison of previously reviewed World War II-themed movies and tropes the reviewer had deemed common to all of them to theses from Ivan Ilyin's works, starting with an overall detour to 2005, when war drama Shtrafbat won TEFI awards and Denikin and Ilyin were reburied in the Donskoy Monastery.

Say, @Stikfigur, now that you had reached out to me, I wanted to ask you a question I've been putting off for a while — what hypothetical territorial arrangement of "warlord cliques" in a hypothetical future Russian warlord scenario would you find to be most probable (or least improbable, I suppose)?

Oh no, I don't think Putin consistently takes stuff from him or like that, but broadly, I think he probably would be more aligned to the Old white army, and probably has the chauvinistic opportunism of some white army warlord.


In my mind, there probably will be a Chechen clique of some kind and some disparate ethnic or religious based militias that will unite or fight, with Azer and Georgia in the mix too. I think there would at least be some kind of big Chinese backed clique in Siberia, due to proximity and resources. Perhaps one in irkutsk, and Baikal becomes a big tourist trap for Chinese tourists. There probably would be a Tuva clique as well (among other ethnic/provincial cliques) in my opinion, and maybe a few American or Finn backed cliques in the Arctic and siberia to ward off Chinese influence.
The most unpredictable place will probably be the the Russian Core from around Petersburg to Yekaterinburg, because of how many groups, from former Putin cronies in the bureaucracy, Wealthy and powerful oligarchs, Provinces with their own armies, PMC Warlords, Ukraine-based militias, and former generals among others are going to be vying for power there. There could be a clique in Petersburg that has some cordial relations with europe enough to get solar panels and arms and such.

So in my scenario, there is:

• The primorye clique that is under Chinese (and partial Japanese) influence that still is open for trade.
• The Irkutsk Clique as a big Siberian Clique backed by China, and is their resource depot.
• An American backed clique in Siberia that fights over Sakha with the Irkutsk clique.
• A Tuvan clique.
• The former Omsk clique run by a attention seeking misogynist that gets crushed by negatively polarizing both the Chinese and Americans towards helping each other for once. (this was my creativity going wild though, so don't take it too seriously)
• Central Russia to the Ural area are probably where a lot of the proxy fighting between EU/America and China occur.
• Petersburg clique that is gets Solar panels and weapons and such from thr EU in exchange for keeping refugees in, illicit money of EU politicians safe, and Chinese backed cliques out of their vicinity.
• Moscow is either effectively a city state run by former Putin cronies clinging on bc nukes or a heavily contested city like Beijing in the Chinese Warlord era as taking it means some legitimacy.
• Related to the above, I have an off the wall idea of Lukashenko creating a save haven for Putin cronies and bureaucrats, and therefore getting nukes and nuclear codes that he uses as leverage to get money and hire engineers and scientists from Germany or something, and just chill as eastern europe descend into chaos.
• Chechen clique that not only participate in the Caucasus wars between Turkey and Iran, but also tries to carve out their own influence in a fragmented Russia.
• At least one Clique based on Militia based in Ukraine during the war, and another based on a Russian PMC there, probably somewhere around Belgorod, Volgograd, and Rostov.
• There probably at least is one faction that tries to imitate Old White Army generals.
• There probably are several PMC units that don't act as established cliques, but as mobile units, and act like bandits in their offtime.

These are ones I could think off my head.

 

[Meppo]

These are ones I could think off my head.

Hrm. Honestly, I'd probably expect any such arrangement to begin with de jure federal subject borders, but it's fine.

 

[Stikfigur]

Hrm. Honestly, I'd probably expect any such arrangement to begin with de jure federal subject borders, but it's fine.

Yeah, it would probably start that way as with China in the 1910s and 1920s, but I think those boundaries will start to matter less as time goes on.

 

[Meppo]

I find Russian Empire-era magazines funny. From "Amur's Letter", №2, 1907:

A DEMENTED DAEMONETTE
a screwballish, downright insane woman with a devilish fire, with a crazy temperament,
rosy, languid, but mad, mad, mad, wants to correspond with someone who would become her slave.
I don’t tolerate power and male arbitariness.
Send a stamp for your answer (?) editorial office of "Eros's Letter".
To a good-natured... specimen.

 

[Meppo]

In yet another horrible diversion to modern Russian politics (dubious as the use of the latter word may be), I would like to present here a poll from Russian Field conducted from 2 to 10 September 2023, called "180 days before presidential elections". The pollster's founder previously worked for Roman Yuneman, and the general issues regarding phone polling in Russia should be kept in mind - the share of completed calls was 18% - so the findings should be taken with a grain of salt. In any case, the findings that the poll presented do dominate my mind every now and then.

Highlights include:

Spoiler: people not wanting a President who's older than 70

The most attractive characteristic of a presidential candidate for the respondents is their affiliation with the military. However, in terms of the sum of positive and neutral reactions, a female candidate exceeds them by a narrow margin. Negative reactions clearly prevail only in the case of a candidate over 70 years old or of a non-traditional sexual orientation. A third or more of respondents would have a negative perception of a candidate born in the North Caucasus, a Muslim, a candidate under 40 years of age, or a Jew.

As we move from younger to older age groups, the willingness to support a female candidate, people under 40, and entrepreneurs as presidential candidates decreases, while the attractiveness of the military, on the contrary, increases. Also, with age, the proportion of those who would negatively perceive a candidate with a non-traditional sexual orientation, a native of the North Caucasus, or a Muslim increases. Young people aged 18-29 are much less likely than other groups to express a negative attitude towards a Jewish candidate.

Spoiler: free choice

[Side note: the top five "other options" named by respondents are Alexei Navalny, Pavel Grudinin, Mikhail Mishustin and Yekaterina Shulman. Being one of Russia's top five preferred candidates in a phone poll is not too bad for a strawberry farmer who was a campaign proxy for Putin decades ago, isn't it?]

Spoiler: Putin vs. alternative candidate

In choosing between V. Putin and a worthy alternative candidate, respondents were equally divided (43% each); another 1% said that for them V. Putin is such a candidate. 10% of respondents found it difficult to answer.

The current president would be more likely to be supported by women, respondents over 45 years of age, and people without higher education. For the alternative candidate - men, respondents under 45 years of age and respondents with higher education.

V. Putin's support prevails among those who believe that their interests are represented by United Russia. Respondents who are oriented towards the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party, New People and Yabloko, as well as those whose interests are not represented by any of the parties, would prefer to vote for an alternative candidate. Those whose interests are represented by SR-ZP are divided approximately equally.

Spoiler: what if Putin selected a successor?

Most often, respondents are ready to support Foreign Minister S. Lavrov (52%) and Prime Minister M. Mishustin (46%) as V. Putin’s successor. The most unpopular candidates are G. Yavlinsky (80% are not likely to vote) and A. Navalny (79%).

S. Lavrov is the leader in popularity in all age groups except the oldest, where M. Mishustin is equally supported with him. From young to older groups, support for S. Shoigu and A. Lukashenko increases and support for D. Medvedev, G. Yavlinsky and A. Navalny decreases.

Spoiler: predicted result

 

[Meppo]

(vaguely based off a C-tier politologist's Telegram post about the Head of Chelyabinsk Oblast (whom he hates) allegedly being nominated for President)

"But any nation, and even more so the Russian people, will always be able to distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors and will simply spit them out like an insect in their mouth, spit them onto the pavement. I am convinced that a natural and necessary self-detoxification of society like this would strengthen our country, our solidarity and cohesion and our readiness to respond to any challenge."
— Vladimir Putin, c. March 16, 2022

2012 – ????: Vladimir Putin (nonpartisan)
2012 def. Gennady Zyuganov (CPRF), Mikhail Prokhorov (nonpartisan), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (LDPR), Dmitry Mironov (A Just Russia)
2018 def. Pavel Grudinin (CPRF), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (LDPR)
2024 def? Boris Nadezhdin (Civic Initiative), Alexei Texler (nonpartisan), Gennady Zyuganov ✞ Sergei Levchenko (CPRF), Leonid Slutsky (LDPR), Ivan Otrakovsky (nonpartisan)

2024: Supreme Court of the Russian Federation annulls second round of the 2024 presidential election, pending investigation into "wide-ranging incidents of corruption among regional election officials"; ensuing protest wave further aggravated by alleged resignation of several key ministers, Putin's off-script rant about "national traitors", and the resulting Bloody Thursday​

 

[Oppo]

The thought of someone in 2024 seeing Zyuganov as enough of a threat to kill him is hilarious

 

[Meppo]

The thought of someone in 2024 seeing Zyuganov as enough of a threat to kill him is hilarious

Morbidly funny as that would be, no, he passed away midway into the campaign, forcing the CPRF leadership to find a different suitably inoffensive and/or aged candidate

 

[Meppo]

Would like to credit the basic format to @iupius and the inspiration to @Comrade Izaac, though I must say I failed to generate much ideas of my own for this one as I would have liked to. I did intend to move on to actual alternate history anyway.
For the purposes of clarifying my intent not to offend anyone who reads this segment and my non-support for political violence, this is a piece of speculative fiction and does not reflect my views or intent as the author.
(also there are a bunch of Boers in Tver Oblast)

Presidents of the Russian Federation since the end of the Second Time of Troubles

2029 – 2037: Viktor Vorobyov (nonpartisan affiliated with Russia of the Future and SocMovement)
Head of Komi Republic (2026–2029)
2030 Hungarian Revolution • 2030 Chechen Republic constitutional referendum • Ethiopian-Egyptian War (2031–2032) • 2031 Seoul Agreement • Abolition of the Investigative Committee • Deregulation bills ("Fifty to Fifty" Plan) • Same-Sex Marriage Bill • Decommunization of Leningrad and Sverdlovsk Oblasts • Red Tempest rallies and strikes • 2032 German–Polish border crisis • 2033 Russia–Caucasus summit (TBILISI2033) • Reorganization of the Federal Penitentiary Service • Law on Repatriation and Material Support of Citizens of the Russian Federation • Regional Language Studies Bill • 2034 Russia–United States summit (HELSINKI2034) • "Khimprom" Cartel affair • Ingushetia–North Ossetia border clashes • French intervention in Syria (2033–2035) • 2035 Grozny protests • Arabian Gulf Wars (2033–2043) • South Asian–Middle Eastern refugee crisis • Iranian-Afghan War (2034–2036) • 2030s energy crisis • Recognition of the Circassian Genocide • Alfa-Bank scandal • Resignation of PM Navalny • Gunfight at Vidnoye • Capture and trial of Alexei Milchakov • Unification of Komi Republic and the Nenets AO • Splitting of Moscow Oblast • 2036 Vorobyov assassination plot ("Special Dekomification Operation") • 2036 Warsaw Summer Olympics

2037 – 2041: Nikolai Bondarenko (SocMovement)
State Duma deputy from Saratov Oblast (2028–2037)
Infrastructure Expansion Bill • Rent Subsidies Bill • Support of Repatriated Citizens program ("Manifesto of 2036") • "Road Renewal" program • Assassination of Maxim Katz • Assassination of Maria and Andrei Trutnev ("Trutnevgate") • Assassination attempt on Kirill Ukraintsev • Anti-Ukrainian violence incidents • Trial of Denis Kapustin • "Black Blizzard" case • "For the Families" protests and marches / pro-bodily choice counterprotests • Traffic cameras controversy • Reorganization of Roskosmos • 2038–2041 inflationary spike • 2038 heat wave • 2038 Siberian fires • Kyrgyz-Tajik War (2038–2039) • 2040 Antarctic ice sheet thaw • 2040 Indian astronaut landing on the Moon • Kazakhstani–Russian border incidents • Minstroi bribing scandals • Allegations of presence of Chinese anarchist cells in Russia • Red October Club affair

2041 – : Vadim Alexeyev (Constitutional Democrat)
Head of Samara Oblast (2033–2041)
Burial of Vladimir Lenin • "Green Shift" program • "If We Can Keep the Peace" speech • "Digital Government" program • 2041 pithovirus epidemic • 2041 Novy Urengoy shootings • Expansion of gun regulation bills • Small Business Support Bill • Proposed introduction of single 5% turnover tax controversy • Drone bombing of alleged "clone factory" in Harbin • 2042 Chinese–Russian diplomatic dispute • 2042 Donetsk summit • 2042 Moscow Metro bombing • 2043 Kofman–Haskel phone call • Establishment of the Arab Federal Republic • Murder of Sergei Russkikh