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AH Run-downs, summaries and general gubbins

Sideways

The Smoking GNU
Published by SLP
The Pirate Party
For the first time the Pirate Party is standing a full slate in the EU elections! I thought it'd be interesting to see who they've got. I also plan to do the remnants of UKIP, the Greens, the Independent Liberal Party, the Uprising, and whatever the far-right group is this week​

South West
  1. Hannah Little – Senior lecturer, ran against Elston for leader on the basis that the party needed a female leader. So basically the Yvette Cooper to David Elston's Chuka Umunna and this is the only time anyone is going to able to compare David Elston to Chuka Umunna
  2. Jean-Michel Carter - Mostly into neuroscience. A politician for some reason
  3. Milo Hanrahan - Came into the party through the gamergate lot and still holds some pretty nasty views. All about free speech, but somehow always for assholes. The sort who'd be some kind of conservative type if there was room for that among the troglodgytes.
London
  1. Martha Dark - Former HR person, operations Officer for the Open Rights group, and real functioning human being who I guess the party realised wouldn't embarrass them if she was actually elected
  2. Ankit Love - There's not a great deal you can do about Ankit. He stood as candidate in Peterborough and Islington North mostly because he can fund himself and he usually pays for models to come campaign with him. Basically a weird fucker but while he's not a funder he is independently wealthy and that's good enough for a #2 slot.
  3. Pandora Blake - Non-binary. Obscenity campaigner. I think they also do porn? This is 2019 - all the good politicians do porn. And vice versa
  4. Mathieu Gosselin - Transhumanist. Definitely a bit of a wanker. A cis man who knows how to hold his head to get a good selfie and I'm all in for that.
  5. Zack Polanski - The boob hypnosis guy. And other things, but he'll always be the boob hypnosis guy.
  6. Mark Chapman - London coordinator but really really low down this list for some reason
  7. Rebecca Sentance - Press officer and SEO lady. Great name for someone who does web writing
  8. Alexander van Terheyden - His membership precedes gmergate but he's still an arse. He almost had a disciplinary for Islamophobia (but of course didn't because these are the Pirates and they don't do party discipline)
East
  1. Julian Huppert - Weird coup for the Pirates to have a former MP. He left the Lib Dems in 2013 when the Snooper's Charter came in and he's kind of well known
  2. Myles Jackman - The Obscenity Lawyer. Famous for getting people off being arrested for trying to get off. Another coup for the party.
East Midlands
  1. Christopher Weatherhead - A former Anonymous hacker who spent some time in prison for the Avenge Assange op and is definitely not the kind of person the modern party wants front and centre but gamergate gonna gamergate.
  2. David Geraghty - David is a campaigner in Derby who stood for election in Derby South in 2017 and was presumably the real inspiration behind Russell Brand's campaigner "David" in UM's "Mr Bright Side" novel. I can't think who else they could have been based on.
North East
  1. Emily Falzon - Law student and Chair of the Young Pirates. Due to various fuck ups is the only candidate there,
North West
  1. Loz Kaye - Was the leader during Wikileaks, Assange's death, up to the Snooper's Charter and things getting chaotic. Apparently he's still alive
  2. Graeme Lambert - Focuses very much on libertarianism in the party.
  3. Tim Dobson - Was recently on the BBC for taking his 99 year old grandmother rock climbing. Yes really.
  4. Morgan Hill - A name SEO people hate
  5. Cris Chesha - One of the former leaders who are hard to remember. Is fond of wearing baseball caps.
South East
  1. Cory Doctorow - Science Fiction writer and digital rights activist. And celebrity. Hence the top billing.
  2. Jason Kitkat - Former Green councillor but fell out with Brighton Green council after their time in power and... he's complicated. His defection in 2014 made him one of the first Pirate Councillors in the country
  3. Josh Smith - Created the system for crowd sourcing policy in the party and administrates the GitHub page. The Pirates are winning on Mastodon and Discord as well, but their successful Discord presence is pretty impressive
  4. Sam Mills - Actually the party's IT guy and actually lives in Brussels but okay.
  5. Anne Jersh - One of those rare new age-ey Pirates. Is a hypnotherapist into "Future Life Progression" which makes her the second or maybe third weirdest hypnotist in this list
  6. Rachel Ling - Stood for yourVOICE last time - the direct democrats with a QR code for a logo. This... seems like a natural progression
  7. Jason Halsey - A Bournemouth PPC back in 2017
Wales
  1. David Elston - You know I love David. Not you, David (but I love you too). Did well enough as a parish councillor to somehow get a council level seat. This is very much precursor to 2020 when he's probably the best chance the Pirates have of taking a Welsh Assembly seat (their chances are slim, but, you never know)
West Midlands
  1. Sunny Sangha - Famously attempted to bring about the Pirate's first full slate in Birmingham in 2018 and in the end managed to bring in just 8 candidates, which was still... good... if he hadn't hyped it so much.
  2. Andrew Robinson - The first leader of the party, from back when they were struggling to sell t-shirts.
  3. Zoe Blade - Moderately successful trans woman and musician. Did the music for the dating show You know the one? With Monroe Bergdorf?
Yorkshire and the Humber
  1. Gary Kitchin - This sexy motherfucker was the 2nd place candidate in Batley and Spen, beating all the various fascists. He's also winning for local council and parish council but he;s not using the Pirate descriptor there because he wants to win.
  2. Noel Sharkey - If elected his stint in parliament will be judged on four categories: damage, control, style and aggression.
  3. Andy Halsall - Runs Open Intelligence, a politicsy techy, kind of... thing
Scotland
  1. Mark Rice - Manages the Surveillance Index and has a big ginger beard
  2. Alex Staniforth - Occultist, libertarian, and ghost tour operator. So... if you were worried about the party being too science-ey, at least they have someone to handle the magic too
  3. Iain R. Learmonth - Involved in Tor, The Distronet and all those other things Theresa May will never understand but fears. He, on the other hand, will never understand and kind of fears politics. So it evens out.
  4. Lewis Sturrock - The Most Northern Pirate since the Vikings
Northern Ireland
  1. Barry Brown - The Northern Ireland branch of the party has only existed since 2018 and is mostly the remains of Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol, hence Barry Brown.
 
Last edited:

Bolt451

You've been.. THUNBERG STRUCK!
This was always an inevitability since Cory moved over here. He's probably in the "Alternate MPs where we have voting reform or some shit" Although real hard bastards writing him becoming a peer under some Radical government.

Awesome! :D I mean, I'm still not going to vote Pirate but that is awesome.

I loved him in DS9 and Dirty Harry
 

Sideways

The Smoking GNU
Published by SLP
This was always an inevitability since Cory moved over here. He's probably in the "Alternate MPs where we have voting reform or some shit" Although real hard bastards writing him becoming a peer under some Radical government.



Awesome! :D I mean, I'm still not going to vote Pirate but that is awesome.



I loved him in DS9 and Dirty Harry
I'm imagining a world where Assange dies somehow in 2011 and the party avoids the worst of its press, while they have Gamergate elements the alt right hasn't coalesced into something that can define them. Basically the party still has some of its problems but has taken in enough people to not be defined by them
 
Texian Empire (May 1, 2019)
  • Government
    • Christian Democratic Union:
      • Premier President Steiner showed up unexpectedly to the Christian Democratic World Union meeting in Santiago. That's sure not to inflame tensions in the coalition. Hell, in his own party.
      • Considering that Gottfried Talberg is in court at this very moment for possibly the least subtle contract corruption ever (he got himself photographed at a Roughnecks game chatting with Valentina Guseva, then offered RossProiz a billion-dollar no-bid contract), this seems like a bad idea.
      • It also seems like a bad idea for him personally. Ilona Moser is meeting with an awful lot of party grandees, which either means that she's planning a coup or she's having one of those flashes of leftism and needs political cover. And who knows what Julius Voigt will get up to when left unsupervised?
      • Mayor Adler is pretending not to know anyone in his federal party. Good for him, I guess.
    • Catholic Political Union:
      • Well, it finally happened. According to El Faro, Felipe Zamora has the necessary votes to trigger a leadership contest at the Summer Convention. Like everything Zamora seems to do, it will leave everyone wishing that it could have been avoided and lead to an outcome nobody actually wants.
      • Also characteristic of Zamora, he isn't really doing his actual job. If the revenue projections through 2021 aren't out in two weeks, the entire Texian political system sort of breaks. Like a college student procrastinating from hammering out a final paper, Zamora does not seem to have done shit.
      • Victoria Marrero is in hot water again for calling the New England Progressive Conservatives "an affront to conservative values" for voting to overturn the abortion ban. This seems like a bad idea for, you know, the country's chief diplomat. Just saying.
      • RIP former Domestic Secretary Jaime Bennett, whose vision of a Texian Empire where politics is not pillarized by language is no less significant for having failed. It'll live on on this forum, at least.
    • Democratic Party:
      • Hanne Robinson is in the news again for another weird reason. Apparently she tried to pressure the Dean of the Honors College at NARUT-O to let her give a guest lecture in Liberal Studies. I guess the world will never know what Hanne Robinson thinks about Notes from Underground, or whatever they put on the syllabus next year.
      • She's also technically the President of the Senate until Steiner gets back, so there's that, I guess?
      • Noel Vincent got into some sort of brawl with a SETU student in some dive bar on the Drag because of the planned drawdowns in rural rail service. ¡PATEA SU CULO, @Ará Orún!
      • Sometimes I don't know why Steve Gilbert sets my teeth on edge so much. He's not in Cabinet, he hasn't done anything particularly objectionable since he spiked a bunch of uncontested local bills because a Daily Advance writer alluded to his ass last year, he's probably going to join the CPP in not too long, and honestly they deserve each other. And then I hear about him trying to block reporters from the Capitol Peanut Gallery (note to self - figure out the actual name for those things), and I don't know...
    • Republican Latter-Day Saint Political League:
      • Ken Ambrose is doing fine, doing his job. Good for him. I don't have anything to say about the parliamentary party.
      • Mogollon County County Judge Ben Graham got detained at the Mexican border for funnelling money to the Colmena branch of his own political party. Again. Somehow I doubt that anyone involved is too interested in getting him released any time soon this time.
    • Conservative People's Party:
      • The head of their youth wing, Tom Lee, got removed from his position over some sort of scheme to create a secret society of Air Force officers to do God-knows-what. It is constantly staggering to me that the CPP is in any kind of power.
      • They may not be for long! (Huzzah!) Party leader Andrew Cather is divorcing his wife, rumor has it because he was cheating on her with another member of the parliamentary party. Which is sad for them, naturally, but at this point it seems like it could cause a schism in the party, and I don't reckon the CPP could survive another split.
      • Although Alexander Salford is apparently rejoining the caucus, so who even knows anymore.
    • Patriotic Workers' Union:
      • The party staff tried to set up a union. You'll never guess what happened next. (It's that they were fired.)
      • Alisa Köhler is angry at the Union Record for "having it out" for her. Which, yeah, but they're a partisan newspaper for an opposition party, so whatever, but she's specifically angry that a political cartoon depicted her in a Klan hood. She appears to object on the grounds that she is not literally a Klanswoman. Does she not understand the concept of hyperbole?
  • Crossbench:
    • Afro-Texan National Congress:
      • George Gunn has been investing his campaign funds in the stock market. Which... he's unopposed, so why not? But there's no way that can possibly be legal, right?
      • On the bright side, Arthur Mills Gordon has been doing good work with banning the death penalty. Which, as a bill, isn't likely to pass any time soon, but at least it's going to be debated on the floor, which is at least something.
    • Kuomintang of Texas:
      • Stan Liu drew what appears to be his own Banglaball comic to explain his view of Texian-Chinese relations and put it in his presentation on the floor of the House on the necessity of raising oil export duties on China. Who says miracles aren't real?
  • Opposition:
    • Communist Workers' Party:
      • Patricia Gomez very clearly wishes she was back as Secretary of Health. Or Shadow Secretary of Health. Or in any sort of policy-related thing, not as Leader of the Opposition, a fancy title with no responsibilities.
      • Adolfo Quicutxi sure is making a lot of trade negotiations in the Caribbean and the Pacific, in case the left coalition gets back into power soon. It's not that he just likes Texian taxpayers funding his vacations to Guantánamo Bay and Cát Bà Island, no way.
      • ¡Ya Basta! changed its logo back to the Communist Comet. I am very enthused.
    • Labor Progressive Alliance:
      • Kirk Carroll keeps bringing books on the General Strike to his desk and reading them in the background of whatever opposition person is speaking. In terms of actually signalling action, that means nothing, but in terms of setting Don Wolff's hair on fire, it means everything, and I'm here for it.
      • Speaking of, there's not much of a more jarring contrast in tone in a single party than when Kirk Carroll, a big, mustachioed, former steelworker, speaks after Gerald Sawyer, who looks and talks like a gymnasium history teacher. I know that Sawyer has legitimate reasons for being in the party, and I'm certainly glad he's in the coalition, but there's a certain image Labor Progressive Representatives have that he just doesn't.
      • Lori Weldon gesticulated so wildly during the tariff debate that Franz Loeb had to duck to avoid getting punched. Honestly, I'm impressed by his reaction time more than anything.
      • Steve Bright flew to Cuba over the weekend to speak before the Parque Central protest in solidarity with the general strikers, and then told President Rivera "go fuck yourself" to his face. Which is great, but it doesn't have a lot to do with Shadow Banking and Financial Institutions Secretarying.
    • Social Democratic Party:
      • In a stunning rebuke to the concept of logging off, Boris Meier got into an argument with a Cascadian 15-year-old on Bright about Georgism. Whoever just got "BINGO" on Boris Meier antics, please come to the front to collect your winnings.
      • Your prize is a copy of the new Tax Abatement and Welform Act, signed by everyone willing to admit they were involved in it. Trying to figure out how the damn thing works is better than any puzzle book.
      • Just ask Michel Müller, the Shadow Health Secretary who wishes someone else were here to figure out how to defend this. At least now he knows how Patricia Gomez feels.
    • Socialist Victory Movement:
      • Still in its weird situation of being sort of transnational, but also not really. Rumor has it that the Fifth International is considering sacking Lakshmi Srinivasan over allying with the government to push the tariff reduction bill, which is apparently a thing they can do if the British Republic is sufficiently mad about things. Or about having a descendent of their former colonial subjects who's not 100% obedient as a major figure in the thing they run.
      • Guillermo Cortez is trying to get a ShadCab position without his party being in the opposition coalition. Not sure why he thinks that's a possibility, but best of luck to him, I guess.
    • National Progressive Alliance:
      • Has been in an uproar ever since Ben Willis announced his plan to retire and spend more time with his stock options.
      • Mo Johnson, the leading candidate to replace him, keeps making weird comments on QQ about the '80s. Clearly, this means she's going to reunify the party with the LabProgs, form a minority government, and get really into herbal medicine.
      • A bit less likely is Robert Ionescu, who would probably have a better chance at not being tied to the Comanche Petro scandal if he didn't keep bringing it up at every opportunity. Focus on your positives, Bob! Like your weird ideas about social credit, or your impressive height!
      • I like Fred Gessen. Not enough to actually vote for him on account of his support for privatizing everything, but he came into this race with a palpable sense of "well, this might as well happen", and I can relate to that.
    • Party of the Democratic Center:
      • Still dealing with Guadalupe Rivera getting nominated to the Senate as Secretary of Inter-American Cooperation. Opponents say that if she were really committed to the Center Caucus she wouldn't have agreed, and that this goes against the manifesto. Proponents say that there's no reason to give up the party's voice in government. I say that it's intensely amusing to watch Rivera pretend to get along with Daniel Landau, her predecessor who got canned for her, in committee meetings.
      • Beto Acosta says that he'll be resigning soon in order to run for Mayor of Bexar. We're going to miss his speeches made entirely of buzzwords.
    • Ecological Party:
      • IT HAS BEEN 21 0 DAYS SINCE OUR LAST POINTLESS SCHISM
      • Although this one seems to have taken most of the eugenicists with it, so good riddance to them.
 
The Pirate Party
For the first time the Pirate Party is standing a full slate in the EU elections! I thought it'd be interesting to see who they've got. I also plan to do the remnants of UKIP, the Greens, the Independent Liberal Party, the Uprising, and whatever the far-right group is this week​
It took me longer than I would like to admit to figure out that this was AH. Really good.

Texian Empire (May 1, 2019)
I can't decide which I like more--Tom Lee's secret society, Boris Meier's argument about Georgism, or the Kuomintang of Texas. This makes me wish I could like posts more than once.
 

Charles EP M.

Well-known member
Published by SLP
WHAT IF THE LATEST YOUGOV EURO-VOTE POLL'S PERCENTAGES WERE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION'S SEAT RESULT DESPITE THAT NOT BEING HOW IT WORKS?


Alliance: 2
Brexit Party:
221
Change UK: 32
Conservative: 57
DUP: 4
Green: 64
Independent & local parties: 14
Labour: 95
Liberal Democrat: 101
Plaid Cymru: 6
SDLP: 3
SNP: 24
Sinn Fein: 5
TUV: 1
UKIP: 19
UUP: 2


The country goes OH NO.

Immediately we're living in a coalition world where Brexit and the Liberal Democrats are the leaders, and the Tories are fifth party behind the Greens. May falls on her side and Corbyn is pushed hard, and Arlene Foster follows soon as the DUP have seen their numbers fall by more than half. The Greens, who with their own NI MP are now "the only truly national party", are riding high, having leaped to the big leagues - Batten at UKIP and the original Tiggers of Change can all feel smug as, despite all the naysayers, their plans have paid off.

The surge of small local parties, the sudden fracturing of the Northern Ireland political scene: all of this too changes 'what we know'. Not as much as the SNP falling that much at a time when they felt Scotland was going their way! Sturgeon's position is creaking and a purge is underway in the parliamentary party.

The problem is government. If all the Brexit parties are added together with the, er, Brexit Party, you get 302 seats, a minority that would need to cut deals with the independents and locals to reach even spitting distance of the magic 323 majority. Farage immediately tries to pull this off with bullying and braggadocio, helped by Boris seizing the Tories - problem is, he needs to talk to Batten. He has to negotiate with Batten. And neither man can stand each other, and both men feel they were proven correct, and the whole thing stalls.

Jo Swinson, leading the Liberal Democrats as Vince Cable stood down pre-election, can get Alliance, Change, Labour, SDLP and the Greens to agree to a national coalition of 297 MPs with 30 nationals agreeing to a supply-and-confidence in the short term. Swinson runs in fast, creating a mutant Frankenstein government that, with backing, can finally push a second referendum through and new climate change measures, big city police funidng, & an increase of council funding, the only thing they can all agree on (and the locals & independents will vote to back the latter two!)

The second referendum is a brutal slog with Farage and Batten throwing everything they have and the remain parties throwing everything back, and a few people literally throw things and things get tense. However, Farage is now more vulnerable as he's now at the height of visibility and he's visibly lost his chance to be PM, whereas the Lib Dems have momentum, and frankly people are sick of bloody Brexit.

Second referendum is 53% Remain, just barely. Farage screams betrayal and rioting breaks out for several days; Farage is now tied to that rioting. Unfortunately, he's still the official leader of the opposition and he's still screaming.

"Frankengovernment" lurches its way to a new year election, in which turnout is down because of general voting fatigue. The Liberal Democrats go in with a formal absorption of Alliance and CHUK, both talked into thinking this is the best way to win (and having had a few cabinet jobs, they've got a taste for it). Labour is still feuding between Watson and Long-Bailey's factions; Boris has the problem now of being seen as 'diet Farage' by too many people, putting off people against Farage and for him; the SNP has regrouped, UKIP is in civil war now Batten's seen as wasting their shot, and dissident Tories, including all of Ruth Davidson's Scottish Tories, have decided to try their own CHUK trick by forming the One Nation Party.



Brexit Party:
240
Conservative: 3
Green: 71
Independent & local parties: 7
Labour: 18
Liberal Democrat: 255
One Nation: 8
Plaid Cymru: 2
SDLP: 2
SNP: 29
Sinn Fein: 4
TUV: 3
UKIP: 3
UUP: 1


The Lib Dem/Green coalition is all smiles and a Bright New Dawn For Women In Power with Swinson as PM and Sian Berry as Deputy PM, having just the majority needed if they all hang together, but how they can work together long term will be fun. Still, Britain is now under a socially liberal Europe-remaining government. For many this is a Good Thing. (The rump Labour screams and screams)

The Bad Thing is that the Brexit Party is still there and it's unclear if it's going to implode or not - if not, Britain's de facto opposition are brutish hard right and under command of a demagogue. Dirty tricks have been authorised in Whitehall to get Farage to fall by any means necessary. The respectable right wing are torn on whether to accept Farage has won or risk a conservative wilderness as One Nation patiently tries to build up.

Northern Ireland's politics are forever changed now it has representation in the governing parties and there's no obvious two blocks to power share. As the TUV rises up, the UUP and Sinn Fein are turning to Greens and Liberal Democrats of Northern Ireland in desperation to get Stormont back but it doesn't look like the old model is going to work anymore.

The three largest parties want proportional representation but now they're big under FPTP, so that's down the list of priorities for now.

Nobody knows what's going to happen in 2025, if the current government makes it to there.

--

The sums here involved the very scientific method of checking percentages on the national polls, then the ones for Scotland, Wales, & Northern Ireland specifically to upgrade their numbers. The NI one was LucidTalk, rather than YouGov, as they came up on google first (and it bumps Greens by one MP)
 

Turquoise Blue

Ambiguously Tibby
Patreon supporter
Location
Kemr, FK
The sums here involved the very scientific method of checking percentages on the national polls, then the ones for Scotland, Wales, & Northern Ireland specifically to upgrade their numbers. The NI one was LucidTalk, rather than YouGov, as they came up on google first (and it bumps Greens by one MP)
Awful.

I love it.
 

Yokai Man

Well-known member
WHAT IF THE LATEST YOUGOV EURO-VOTE POLL'S PERCENTAGES WERE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION'S SEAT RESULT DESPITE THAT NOT BEING HOW IT WORKS?


Alliance: 2
Brexit Party: 221
Change UK: 32
Conservative: 57
DUP: 4
Green: 64
Independent & local parties: 14
Labour: 95
Liberal Democrat: 101
Plaid Cymru: 6
SDLP: 3
SNP: 24
Sinn Fein: 5
TUV: 1
UKIP: 19
UUP: 2


The country goes OH NO.

Immediately we're living in a coalition world where Brexit and the Liberal Democrats are the leaders, and the Tories are fifth party behind the Greens. May falls on her side and Corbyn is pushed hard, and Arlene Foster follows soon as the DUP have seen their numbers fall by more than half. The Greens, who with their own NI MP are now "the only truly national party", are riding high, having leaped to the big leagues - Batten at UKIP and the original Tiggers of Change can all feel smug as, despite all the naysayers, their plans have paid off.

The surge of small local parties, the sudden fracturing of the Northern Ireland political scene: all of this too changes 'what we know'. Not as much as the SNP falling that much at a time when they felt Scotland was going their way! Sturgeon's position is creaking and a purge is underway in the parliamentary party.

The problem is government. If all the Brexit parties are added together with the, er, Brexit Party, you get 302 seats, a minority that would need to cut deals with the independents and locals to reach even spitting distance of the magic 323 majority. Farage immediately tries to pull this off with bullying and braggadocio, helped by Boris seizing the Tories - problem is, he needs to talk to Batten. He has to negotiate with Batten. And neither man can stand each other, and both men feel they were proven correct, and the whole thing stalls.

Jo Swinson, leading the Liberal Democrats as Vince Cable stood down pre-election, can get Alliance, Change, Labour, SDLP and the Greens to agree to a national coalition of 297 MPs with 30 nationals agreeing to a supply-and-confidence in the short term. Swinson runs in fast, creating a mutant Frankenstein government that, with backing, can finally push a second referendum through and new climate change measures, big city police funidng, & an increase of council funding, the only thing they can all agree on (and the locals & independents will vote to back the latter two!)

The second referendum is a brutal slog with Farage and Batten throwing everything they have and the remain parties throwing everything back, and a few people literally throw things and things get tense. However, Farage is now more vulnerable as he's now at the height of visibility and he's visibly lost his chance to be PM, whereas the Lib Dems have momentum, and frankly people are sick of bloody Brexit.

Second referendum is 53% Remain, just barely. Farage screams betrayal and rioting breaks out for several days; Farage is now tied to that rioting. Unfortunately, he's still the official leader of the opposition and he's still screaming.

"Frankengovernment" lurches its way to a new year election, in which turnout is down because of general voting fatigue. The Liberal Democrats go in with a formal absorption of Alliance and CHUK, both talked into thinking this is the best way to win (and having had a few cabinet jobs, they've got a taste for it). Labour is still feuding between Watson and Long-Bailey's factions; Boris has the problem now of being seen as 'diet Farage' by too many people, putting off people against Farage and for him; the SNP has regrouped, UKIP is in civil war now Batten's seen as wasting their shot, and dissident Tories, including all of Ruth Davidson's Scottish Tories, have decided to try their own CHUK trick by forming the One Nation Party.



Brexit Party: 240
Conservative: 3
Green: 71
Independent & local parties: 7
Labour: 18
Liberal Democrat: 255
One Nation: 8
Plaid Cymru: 2
SDLP: 2
SNP: 29
Sinn Fein: 4
TUV: 3
UKIP: 3
UUP: 1


The Lib Dem/Green coalition is all smiles and a Bright New Dawn For Women In Power with Swinson as PM and Sian Berry as Deputy PM, having just the majority needed if they all hang together, but how they can work together long term will be fun. Still, Britain is now under a socially liberal Europe-remaining government. For many this is a Good Thing. (The rump Labour screams and screams)

The Bad Thing is that the Brexit Party is still there and it's unclear if it's going to implode or not - if not, Britain's de facto opposition are brutish hard right and under command of a demagogue. Dirty tricks have been authorised in Whitehall to get Farage to fall by any means necessary. The respectable right wing are torn on whether to accept Farage has won or risk a conservative wilderness as One Nation patiently tries to build up.

Northern Ireland's politics are forever changed now it has representation in the governing parties and there's no obvious two blocks to power share. As the TUV rises up, the UUP and Sinn Fein are turning to Greens and Liberal Democrats of Northern Ireland in desperation to get Stormont back but it doesn't look like the old model is going to work anymore.

The three largest parties want proportional representation but now they're big under FPTP, so that's down the list of priorities for now.

Nobody knows what's going to happen in 2025, if the current government makes it to there.

--

The sums here involved the very scientific method of checking percentages on the national polls, then the ones for Scotland, Wales, & Northern Ireland specifically to upgrade their numbers. The NI one was LucidTalk, rather than YouGov, as they came up on google first (and it bumps Greens by one MP)
Hoo doggie

This can’t be good

Good work tho.
 

Charles EP M.

Well-known member
Published by SLP
WHAT IF THE LATEST YOUGOV 'HOW I'LL VOTE IN NEXT ELECTION HONEST' POLL'S PERCENTAGES WERE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION'S SEAT RESULT DESPITE THAT NOT BEING HOW IT WORKS?


Alliance: 2
Brexit Party: 114
Change UK: 11
Conservative: 158
DUP: 6
Green: 44
Labour: 158
Liberal Democrat: 101
Plaid Cymru: 5
SDLP: 2
SNP: 27
Sinn Fein: 5
UKIP: 13
UUP: 3



Britain is shocked by the fact Change UK's numbers didn't drop!

Also the 'big two' crashed, Lib Dems surged back, Farage is now third-largest party, and the Greens are now a proper force, but mainly "good for CHUK, they've stayed the same!"

Add all four of the big right-wing parties together and you have 291 seats. Adding all the left-of-centre nationals with the SNP and you get a 343 seat majority, but there's a problem: if you add all the big parties committed to Brexit together, whether they agree or not on how to do it, it's 449. This is a sticking point that, since Labour's biggest, is preventing a left-wing coalition and so Dominic Raab is PM with Farage as Deputy PM as a hard-right coalition force that cannot get any bills passed done because of how minority it is, except when it comes to Brexit where parliament begrudgingly backs a hard Brexit deal.

This collapses into a no-deal.

The worst-case scenario hits as a messy, disunited minority government packed with barely-experienced Brexit Party people has to deal with all the crises. As panic and rioting spreads and martial law has to be declared in parts of the country - and direct rule in Northern Ireland because nobody has time right now for Stormont to sort itself out - Farage bangs the drum of how Problem X is the fault of treacherous elites abandoning us, Problem Y is the fault of certain Tories not pulling their weight, Problem Z is the fault of those people, and so on.

After a week of crisis, the left-of-centre parties vote no-confidence, talk a chunk of Tories into defecting, and a "all-party government of national unity" is formed. After six months of harsh state intervention and debt spending, the UK is stabilised but reeling; Scotland and Northern Ireland have independence/unification movements demanding referendums now now NOW, and the government is too weak to say 'no'.

This and the austerity and the "red coup" (as he calls it) and the "violent thugs attacking decent people" allows Farage to bellow and bellow and rise in the polls, his renamed British People's Party agitating in the streets for a new election. After both Northern Ireland and Scotland vote to leave, a new election a year later is inevitable. The "tealshirts", as they're called, march in the streets and "tealshirt"-on-antifa clashes are the new norm.

Finally, in late 2021, in the new 573 United Kingdom of England and Wales' parliament:


British People's Party: 290
Change UK: 5
Conservative: 23
Green: 36
Labour: 101
Liberal Democrat: 84
National Conservative: 25
Plaid Cymru: 7
UKIP: 2



The only hope against the majority BPP is the House of Lords, who can grind the dodgier laws to a halt - putting them on a collision course with Farage, who announces plans to "scrap this pointless relic" and starts stuffing it with his own peers. It's going to be a long five years.

--

YouGov's general election poll had SNP/PC combined and didn't seperate; I have cheated and used a Wales-only poll from April that suggested Plaid might only gain 1 seat, and an older Survation poll for NI.
 

Charles EP M.

Well-known member
Published by SLP
Random idea: the South Wins The Civil War (the Union loses morale and accepts a peace deal). The Southern leadership, drunk on victory, decide to carry out the "Golden Circle", warring with Spain for Cuba, backing filibusters in Central America, helping the Mexican Empire stay in power....

Sending wave after wave of young men to their deaths, hollowing the new CSA out from the inside and causing a lot of increasingly disgruntled men to go "what are we getting out of this?".

Enough of the disgruntled men have read illegal half-copies of the Communist Manifesto that when the riots and mutinies start, they turn into a revolution that creates the first communist state (one the Union allows to stand because of mumbly-mumbly).

Thus allowing the horrible pun:

CSSA
 

Comisario

Bit of a tankie for Cromwell
Published by SLP
Location
Bow, London
Conservative leadership election rundown (20/05/2019)

George Osborne: Still inexplicably the frontrunner even though his main backers are [checks notes]... Anna Soubry (who?) and the Evening Standard.
Michael Gove: The Remainers’ Leaver cannot drink a glass of water and hack!Twitter are sure that this is “Ed’s bacon sandwich” all over again. Spoiler: it isn’t and he’s probably going to win.
Boris Johnson: The Leavers’ Remainer, the “most popular politician in the country”, is struggling to get more than a dozen MPs’ endorsements. You can but laugh, I suppose.
Priti Patel: Has announced she will push for another renegotiation with the EU, which is basically her only policy thus far. We will try to keep you updated if she decides to come up with something innovative, but we’re not holding our breath.
Dominic Raab: ConHome say he’s the dark horse but he insists that the police have more powers to stop-and-search dark horses, so...
 

Sideways

The Smoking GNU
Published by SLP
Conservative leadership election rundown (20/05/2019)

George Osborne: Still inexplicably the frontrunner even though his main backers are [checks notes]... Anna Soubry (who?) and the Evening Standard.
Michael Gove: The Remainers’ Leaver cannot drink a glass of water and hack!Twitter are sure that this is “Ed’s bacon sandwich” all over again. Spoiler: it isn’t and he’s probably going to win.
Boris Johnson: The Leavers’ Remainer, the “most popular politician in the country”, is struggling to get more than a dozen MPs’ endorsements. You can but laugh, I suppose.
Priti Patel: Has announced she will push for another renegotiation with the EU, which is basically her only policy thus far. We will try to keep you updated if she decides to come up with something innovative, but we’re not holding our breath.
Dominic Raab: ConHome say he’s the dark horse but he insists that the police have more powers to stop-and-search dark horses, so...
Is this Tory leadership + Remain victory but still Theresa May?
 

Comisario

Bit of a tankie for Cromwell
Published by SLP
Location
Bow, London
Was she killed by Windrush? I guess that makes sense
I worked out a very rudimentary TL in my head and, yeah, I reckoned that a lot of the problems that came home to roost when she was PM would do so here but with her in a subordinate position and Cameron being unable to afford keeping her around. Windrush would see her pilloried from the left, and then the police cuts + failure to meet immigration targets would see an opening for the right to stick the knife in to another ‘triumphalist Remainer’.
 

Uhura's Mazda

Ohohoho, wir ham des richtige Weltbild
Published by SLP
Location
Tamaki Makaurau
MEPs elected for Libertas UK - Alliance for Democracy in 2009
  • East Midlands: Richard Elvin (Libertas)
  • East of England: Robin Page (UK First)
  • London: George Hargreaves (Christian Party)
  • North West England: Steve Radford (Liberal Party)
  • South East England: Steve Uncles (English Democrats)
  • South West England: Sir Ranulph Fiennes (Countryside Party)
  • Yorkshire and the Humber: Peter Davies (English Democrats)
UKIP reached its apogee in the European elections of 2004, with a hard-hitting billboard campaign and a candidate people had actually heard of in Robert Kilroy-Silk. In the months and years after that May, though, things fell apart for UKIP. First Kilroy attracted headlines with his quixotic quest for the UKIP leadership, then new Tory leader David Cameron pledged to take the party out of the Commission majority, and then the BNP started to surge electorally, leaving Knapman's party spinning its wheels on the starting line.

The final death knell for UKIP was the formation of the Alliance for Democracy, an electoral coalition formed by the English Democrats, the Continuity Liberals, Veritas (only after the departure of Kilroy), the Countryside Party, the Christian Party, the Jury Team, the Pensioners' Party and various other Eurosceptic micro-parties. This Alliance boasted two reasonably well-known candidates, in the explorer Ranulph Fiennes and the guy who presented One Man and His Dog, Robin Page, and therefore attracted significant column inches.

Their manifesto was timely: not only did the AfD key into the knee-jerk Euroscepticism inherent in the British (or, in deference to the largest member of the Alliance, English) psyche, they also made an impact with their policies to limit deficit spending, toughen sentences for violent criminals, cut benefits for the undeserving poor, and - most significantly - cut down on politicians' expenses. This anti-politician stance was useful not only in contrasting with the major parties, whose snouts were revealed to be extremely trough-adjacent by the press in a major scandal, but also in calling out the lifestyles of certain UKIP MEPs.

The final member of the AfD arrived in election year itself, as Declan Ganley's ego-trip Europarty, Libertas.eu, persuaded the AfD to accept its UK affiliate as a member in return for a large donation. This assisted the AfD in achieving 9% of the vote and 7 MEPs, although many voters seem to have been put off by the masturbatory nature of the Libertas name on the ballot paper, if the designs drawn on spoilt ballots can be taken as an indication.

These 7 seats brought the AfD slightly ahead of UKIP, on 5, and the BNP on 4. But their failure to wipe out UKIP bred more failure. The Alliance refused to countenance joining the same Euro group as either of their rivals on the Right, largely for ease of differentiation and to avoid allying with any unsavoury characters. But as the Tories refused to let them join their own new group, the AfD were forced to remain Non-Inscrits and subsist on less speaking time than other MEPs - and it was now vital to be able to put eyecatching speeches on the new medium of YouTube in order to remain relevant among the sort of obsessive, Extremely Online loners who A) watch Eurosceptic speeches on YouTube and B) form the core of the party activist class.

Furthermore, the decision to remain Non-Inscrits caused further trouble as Richard Elvin defected from the AfD to join the French Libertas MEP in UKIP's group, upon the orders of Ganley. This was the first of a wave of defections, with Peter Davies becoming an Independent and Hargreaves and Radford taking their parties out of the Alliance before their term was up. When Robin Page challenged Fiennes for the parliamentary leadership in 2013, they were put in a ridiculous situation of having to beg for the casting vote of Steve Uncles, the third remaining MEP. Page lost and defected back to UKIP, which was glad to see him as it was suffering from a similar level of shrinkage itself in its final years.

Needless to say, neither UKIP nor the AfD were returned in the 2014 elections, bringing a fascinating tale to a close - a rare example of micro-parties not only being able to work together for more than six months, but also achieve genuine electoral success by dint of this co-operation.