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Thandean Representation: The 2015 and 2019 Canadian Federal Elections Under Another Voting System

GATINEAU & OUTAOUAIS
Argenteuil—La Petite Nation
Gatineau
Hull—Aylmer

2015 Members Elected
Argenteuil—La Petite Nation – Stéphane Lauzon
Gatineau – Steven MacKinnon
Hull—Aylmer – Greg Fergus

THANDEREP
GATINEAU & OUTAOUAIS 1. Steven MacKinnon 2. Nycole Turmel 3. Greg Fergus

2019 Members Elected
Argenteuil—La Petite Nation – Stéphane Lauzon
Gatineau – Steven MacKinnon
Hull—Aylmer – Greg Fergus

THANDEREP
GATINEAU & OUTAOUAIS 1. Greg Fergus 2. Steven MacKinnon 3. Yves Destroismaisons
Click to expand...

Including the Quebec bit of greater Ottawa, this area is home to a decent chunk of the civil service and votes strongly Liberal. Guess which orange party won all three of these seats in 2011? Former interim leader Nycole Turmel is the beneficiary of THANDEREP in 2015, but it's the Bloc that benefit in 2019.
 
Fifteen of the MPs on the Southern Quebec map were also represented on the Southeastern Quebec map, so only the left half of this map is new. Keeping that overlap in mind, here's the Southern Quebec breakdown.

Southern Quebec (excluding Montreal)
2015
Liberals 21/40 - 34.5% popular vote, 52.5% seats
Conservatives 3/40 - 13.9% popular vote, 7.5% seats
New Democrats 8/40 - 26.2% popular vote, 20.0% seats
Bloquistes 8/40 - 23.2% popular vote, 20.0% seats
Greens 0/40 - 2.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 14/40 - 34.5% popular vote, 35.0% seats
Conservatives 2/40 - 13.9% popular vote, 5.0% seats
New Democrats 12/40 - 26.2% popular vote, 30.0% seats
Bloquistes 12/40 - 23.2% popular vote, 30.0% seats
Greens 0/40 - 2.2% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 15/40 - 32.6% popular vote, 37.5% seats
Conservatives 3/40 - 13.3% popular vote, 7.5% seats
New Democrats 0/40 - 9.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Bloquistes 22/40 - 38.2% popular vote, 55.0% seats
Greens 0/40 - 4.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Popular 0/40 - 1.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 18/40 - 32.6% popular vote, 45.0% seats
Conservatives 2/40 - 13.3% popular vote, 5.0% seats
New Democrats 1/40 - 9.7% popular vote, 2.5% seats
Bloquistes 19/40 - 38.2% popular vote, 47.5% seats
Greens 0/40 - 4.5% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Popular 0/40 - 1.6% popular vote, 0.0% seats

THANDEREP is not PR; there's still a majoritarian element, just less than under First-Past-the-Post. In southern Quebec, the Conservatives and 2019 New Democrats find themselves with fewer seats than their popular vote implies, because in very few communities do they actually represent a coherent and sizable minority.

The Montreal Island seats have not yet appeared in this thread, so consider those boxes a sneak preview.


thanderep southern quebec 2015.pngthanderep southern quebec 2019.png
 
WEST ISLAND
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle
Lac-Saint-Louis
Pierrefonds—Dollard

2015 Members Elected
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle – Anju Dhillon
Lac-Saint-Louis – Francis Scarpaleggia
Pierrefonds—Dollard – Frank Baylis

THANDEREP
WEST ISLAND 1. Francis Scarpaleggia 2. Frank Baylis 3. Anju Dhillon

Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle – Anju Dhillon
Lac-Saint-Louis – Francis Scarpaleggia
Pierrefonds—Dollard – Sameer Zuberi

THANDEREP 1. Francis Scarpaleggia 2. Sameer Zuberi 3. Anju Dhillon
Click to expand...

1. Montreal trends federalist.
2. Quebec anglophones trend federalist.
3. Federalists trend Liberal.
4. The West Island region of Montreal is a constellation of established anglophone communities.

This is the only area the Liberals sweep in 2015.
 
EAST ISLAND
Hochelaga
Honoré-Mercier
La-Pointe-de-L'Île

2015 Members Elected
Hochelaga – Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet
Honoré-Mercier – Pablo Rodriguez
La-Pointe-de-L'Île – Mario Beaulieu

THANDEREP
EAST ISLAND 1. Pablo Rodriguez 2. Mario Beaulieu 3. Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet

2019 Members Elected
Hochelaga – Soraya Martinez Ferrada
Honoré-Mercier – Pablo Rodriguez
La-Pointe-de-L'Île – Mario Beaulieu

THANDEREP
EAST ISLAND 1. Pablo Rodriguez 2. Mario Beaulieu 3. Soraya Martinez Ferrada
Click to expand...

It was in this neighbourhood that the Bloc Québecois was founded, but 2008 was the last election the Bloc won a majority of seats. (Guess who swept them in 2011?). The Bloquistes and New Democrats were within a few hundred votes of each other in 2015 and thousands of votes clear of the second Liberal, so no real nailbiters here.
 
MONTREAL NORTH
Ahuntsic—Cartierville
Bourassa
Saint-Leonard—Saint-Michel

2015 Members Elected
Ahuntsic—Cartierville – Mélanie Joly
Bourassa – Emmanuel Dubourg
Saint-Leonard—Saint-Michel – Nicola Di Iorio

THANDEREP
MONTREAL NORTH 1. Nicola Di Iorio 2. Mélanie Joly 3. Maria Mourani

2019 Members Elected
Ahuntsic—Cartierville – Mélanie Joly
Bourassa – Emmanuel Dubourg
Saint-Leonard—Saint-Michel – Patricia Lattanzio

THANDEREP
MONTREAL NORTH 1. Mélanie Joly 2. Patricia Lattanzio 3. Emmanuel Dubourg
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"But wait, these seats are south of East Island!"

Montreal directions are not your directions, grasshopper. The local convention is to treat the St Lawrence as flowing west-to-east, regardless of actual direction. This makes Montreal the only city on earth where the sun sets in the north.

Anyhow, THANDEREP allows one incumbent New Democrat to survive the 2015 election, but the Liberals finish off the sweep in 2019.
 
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*MOUNT ROYAL
Mount Royal
Outremont
Saint-Laurent

2015 Members Elected
Mount Royal – Anthony Housefather
Outremont – Thomas Mulcair
Saint-Laurent – Stéphane Dion

THANDEREP
*MOUNT ROYAL 1. Stéphane Dion 2. Anthony Housefather 3. Robert Libman

2019 Members Elected
Mount Royal – Anthony Housefather
Outremont – Rachel Bendayan
Saint-Laurent – Emmanuella Lambropoulos

THANDEREP
*MOUNT ROYAL 1. Anthony Housefather 2. Emmanuella Lambropoulos 3. Rachel Bendayan
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I started to run out of names around this point. 2015 sees the same two Liberals elected under either system, but aggregate support actually costs the New Democrat leader his seat, replaced by a rare Quebec Tory, the Equality Party founder Robert Libman. *MOUNT ROYAL is another region the Liberals sweep in 2019.

Also, does anyone else think Anthony Housefather's wikipedia picture looks like a video game 3D model?
 
OLD MONTREAL
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs

2015 Members Elected
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun – David Lametti
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount – Marc Garneau
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs – Marc Miller

THANDEREP
OLD MONTREAL 1. Marc Garneau 2. Marc Miller 3. Hélène LeBlanc

2019 Members Elected
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun – David Lametti
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount – Marc Garneau
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs – Marc Miller

THANDEREP
OLD MONTREAL 1. Marc Garneau 2. Marc Miller 3. David Lametti
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I'm pretty sure a proper Old Montreal (or Ville-Marie) would have to include Laurier—Sainte-Marie, but I didn't see an obvious configuration for the whole island that included the "real" riding.

All 3 of this region's MPs are in Cabinet! Montreal in toto has eight ministers sitting in various ridings. The New Democrats manage to seat one candidate in 2015, displacing the man who would replace the, ah, inconvenient Jody Wilson-Raybould as Attorney-General. The Liberals complete their fourth area-sweep in 2019 here; wherever they lost their majority in 2019, it sure wasn't Montreal.
 
ROSEMONT & SAINT-MICHEL
Laurier—Sainte-Marie
Papineau
Rosemont—La-Petite-Patrie

2015 Members Elected
Laurier—Sainte-Marie – Hélène Laverdière
Papineau – Justin Trudeau
Rosemont—La-Petite-Patrie – Alexandre Boulerice

THANDEREP
ROSEMONT & SAINT-MICHEL 1. Alexandre Boulerice 2. Justin Trudeau 3. Gilles Duceppe

2019 Members Elected
Laurier—Sainte-Marie – Steven Guilbeault
Papineau – Justin Trudeau
Rosemont—La-Petite-Patrie – Alexandre Boulerice

THANDEREP 1. Justin Trudeau 2. Alexandre Boulerice 3. Claude André
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A group that straddles a number of Montreal boroughs, so the name is somewhat arbitrary. I briefly toyed with gerrymandering Trudeau, Mulcair, and Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe into one riding - it's my project and I get to have fun too - but it would have made a bunch of unconscionably ugly constituencies.

The exceedingly popular New Democrat Alexandre Boulerice - the only Quebec New Democrat returned in 2019 under first-past-the-post, and joined only by Ruth Ellen Brosseau under THANDEREP - shoulders aside two party leaders under 2015 THANDEREP. The residual Bloquiste vote is enough for one seat each election, so neither the New Democrats nor Liberals secure the second seat they won under first-past-the-post.
 
And we've knocked out Montreal in one day!

Because I'm fickle and changeable, this summary includes only Montreal, not the other seats pictured.

Montreal
2015
Liberals 13/18 - 47.4% popular vote, 72.2% seats
Conservatives 0/18 - 12.0% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 4/18 - 24.7% popular vote, 22.2% seats
Bloquistes 1/18 - 13.2% popular vote, 5.6% seats
Greens 0/18 - 2.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 11/18 - 47.4% popular vote, 61.1% seats
Conservatives 1/18 - 12.0% popular vote, 5.6% seats
New Democrats 4/18 - 24.7% popular vote, 22.2% seats
Bloquistes 2/18 - 11.1% popular vote, 5.6% seats
Greens 0/18 - 2.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 16/18 - 49.5% popular vote, 88.9% seats
Conservatives 0/18 - 9.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 1/18 - 15.8% popular vote, 5.6% seats
Bloquistes 1/18 - 18.0% popular vote, 5.6% seats
Greens 0/18 - 6.0% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 15/18 - 49.5% popular vote, 83.3% seats
Conservatives 0/18 - 9.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
New Democrats 1/18 - 15.8% popular vote, 5.6% seats
Bloquistes 2/18 - 18.0% popular vote, 11.1% seats
Greens 0/18 - 6.0% popular vote, 0.0% seats

It's clearly possible to sweep regions in THANDEREP, which gives parties an incentive to run up the score in their heartlands as well as competing for marginals. Or, put another way, THANDEREP creates dozens or hundreds more marginals in normally uncompetitive areas.

thanderep montreal 2015.pngthanderep montreal 2019.png
 
VoiceInTheWilderness has been taken by a fey mood!

SAGUENAY
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
Jonquière
Lac-Saint-Jean

2015 Members Elected
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord – Denis Lemieux
Jonquière – Karine Trudel
Lac-Saint-Jean – Denis Lebel

THANDEREP
SAGUENAY 1. Gisèle Dallaire 2. Marc Pettersen 3. Denis Lebel

2019 Members Elected
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord – Richard Martel
Jonquière – Mario Simard
Lac-Saint-Jean – Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe

THANDEREP
SAGUENAY 1. Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe 2. Richard Martel 3. Richard Hébèrt
Click to expand...

Some vote differentials scramble the names in 2015, even though the party allocations are the same. Jonquière's New Democratic winner Karine Trudel got fewer votes than Lac-Saint-Jean's runner up Gisèle Dallaire, and Jonquière's Liberal runner-up Marc Pettersen in turn got more votes than Chicoutimi—Le Fjord's winner Denis Lemieux. Conservative Denis Lebel does get returned in the third seat, by way of getting the most individual votes of any candidate.

In 2019 the Bloc broke through in Saguenay, but not enough to squeeze out the Liberals once THANDEREP is implemented. Weirdly, the three Liberal MPs elected on these various permutations were each running in a different riding.
 
MANICOUAGAN
Manicouagan

2015 Member Elected
Manicouagan – Marilène Gill

THANDEREP
MANICOUAGAN 1. Marilène Gill

2019 Member Elected
Manicouagan – Marilène Gill

THANDEREP
MANICOUAGAN 1. Marilène Gill
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There's an argument for naming this one "Côte-Nord", but I know there's a North Shore coming in BC and I'm not gonna inflict the ambiguity on translators.

Gill wins this riding off the New Democrats in 2015 by a respectable margin, before winning a crushing re-election by 34 percentage points in 2019.
 
UNGAVA
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

2015 Member Elected
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou – Romeo Saganash

THANDEREP
UNGAVA 1. Romeo Saganash

2019 Member Elected
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou – Sylvie Bérubé

THANDEREP
UNGAVA 1. Sylvie Bérubé
Click to expand...

This one's another on fine on its own, but I had to fix that name. You're literally using it in provincial elections!

Romeo Saganash was one of 2011's New Democrat rookies, in a longtime Bloquiste seat. The Bloc returned in 2019 as the NDP placed a humiliating fourth.
 
ABITIBI, TÉMISCAMINGUE, & PONTIAC
Abitibi—Témiscamingue
Pontiac

2015 Members Elected
Abitibi—Témiscamingue – Christine Moore
Pontiac – Will Amos

THANDEREP
ABITIBI, TÉMISCAMINGUE, & PONTIAC 1. Will Amos 2. Christine Moore

2019 Members Elected
Abitibi—Témiscamingue – Sébastien Lemire
Pontiac – Will Amos

THANDEREP
ABITIBI, TÉMISCAMINGUE, & PONTIAC 1. Will Amos 2. Sébastien Lemire
Click to expand...

The last Quebec constituency, right up the northern Ontario border, and I'm fresh out of names. The swing is complete enough and Amos' vote strong enough that THANDEREP delivers the same results as FPTP.
 
VoiceInTheWilderness said:
This makes Montreal the only city on earth where the sun sets in the north.
Click to expand...

I am absolutely stealing this for my D&D settings.

"Yeah, the sun sets in the north here. The actual geographic north. We checked with a compass and everything. Why? Well, our ruler's palace was built facing the wrong way to get sun access, making it gloomy, and he hired a wizard to solve the problem, but apparently you need to be more specific if you just want to rotate a building. We're still paying the wizard."
 
Right, let's commit some more overlap.

Northern Quebec
2015
Liberals 10/26 - 32.2% popular vote, 38.5% seats
Conservatives 7/26 - 19.4% popular vote, 27.0% seats
New Democrats 6/26 - 27.4% popular vote, 23.1% seats
Bloquistes 3/26 - 19.1% popular vote, 11.5% seats
Greens 0/26 - 1.9% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 10/26 - 32.2% popular vote, 38.5% seats
Conservatives 4/26 - 19.4% popular vote, 15.4% seats
New Democrats 8/26 - 27.4% popular vote, 30.8% seats
Bloquistes 4/26 - 19.1% popular vote, 15.4% seats
Greens 0/26 - 1.9% popular vote, 0.0% seats

2019
Liberals 7/26 - 28.5% popular vote, 27.0% seats
Conservatives 5/26 - 19.5% popular vote, 19.2% seats
New Democrats 0/26 - 11.1% popular vote, 0.0% seats
Bloquistes 14/26 - 34.8% popular vote, 53.8% seats
Greens 0/26 - 3.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats
THANDEREP
Liberals 8/26 - 28.5% popular vote, 30.8% seats
Conservatives 5/26 - 19.5% popular vote, 19.2% seats
New Democrats 1/26 - 11.1% popular vote, 3.8% seats
Bloquistes 12/26 - 34.8% popular vote, 46.2% seats
Greens 0/26 - 3.7% popular vote, 0.0% seats


First-past-the-post produces this weird anomaly in 2015 where it's the third-place Conservatives that outperform their popular vote share - THANDEREP elegantly corrects this, too, with the Liberals and New Democrats correctly benefiting from the majoritarian aspect. How on earth did that happen?

thanderep quebec basemap 2015.pngthanderep quebec basemap 2019.png
 
Do folks want me to calculate the popular vote percentages for these tables?

Province of Quebec
2015Popular Vote PercentageFirst-past-the-postTHANDEREP
Liberal35.94033
Conservative16.8129
New Democrat25.51621
Bloquiste19.51015
Green2.300
Other00

2019Popular Vote PercentageFirst-past-the-postTHANDEREP
Liberal34.53538
Conservative16.1108
New Democrat11.112
Bloquiste32.43230
Green4.500
Other1.500


Nationwide So Far
2015First-past-the-postTHANDEREP
Liberal7257
Conservative1214
New Democrat1624
Bloquiste1015
Green00
Other00

2019First-past-the-postTHANDEREP
Liberal6156
Conservative1417
New Democrat24
Bloquiste3230
Green13
Other00
 
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