Arthur_Phuxache
The Long Good Double Points Friday
- Location
- Greater Doncastrian Empire
Going off this, how likely is it that Estado Novo Portugal chooses to join the Axis as well?
None.
Going off this, how likely is it that Estado Novo Portugal chooses to join the Axis as well?
Equatorial Guinea gets rapidly seized by British colonial forces at least.
Still the question of how the British do this in 1940-1941 is a big ask. There are no friend air bases nearby and the Spanish control the approaches to the peninsula, meaning any convoys would have to face a gauntlet of mines, U-Boats, E-Boats and the Luftwaffe.
Don't see why Britain would invade Portuguese colonies, when Spain in Axis probably forces Lisbon to look at more formal relationship with the AlliesAnd Goa. With South African troops invading Mozambique and Angola to follow.
Don't see why Britain would invade Portuguese colonies, when Spain in Axis probably forces Lisbon to look at more formal relationship with the Allies
Hypothetical response to Salazar joining the Axis. (Never going to happen, Ukraine has a better chance of joining)
In the event of Spain declaring war on Britain, Portugal has little choice in the matter, and will seek the support of its long standing and most powerful ally.
OTOH if the Free French are still a thing, than Gabon just increased in size for a bit.Equatorial Guinea gets rapidly seized by British colonial forces at least.
So, like the English Channel, but with even less chance of success.
Gibraltar will be such a Verdun-style meat grinder for Spanish troops and civilians the Italians won't go near it, and the Germans may not either.
Hypothetical response to Salazar joining the Axis. (Never going to happen, Ukraine has a better chance of joining)
In the event of Spain declaring war on Britain, Portugal has little choice in the matter, and will seek the support of its long standing and most powerful ally.
In the event of Spain declaring war on Britain, Portugal has little choice in the matter
No, it'd be vastly worse because the English Channel could be covered by land based British airpower. This is more akin to the Northern Lend Lease route with its associated disasters of PQ-17, where losses among shipping was so high that in 1942 they shut down the route completely until the winter and its covering darkness.
Portugal isn't going to commit national suicide.
Why not? It would be bad for Portugal if Spain and Britain are fighting, but is it bad enough to suffer bombers and invasion?
. Why wouldn't Portugal go "actually, blow the treaty" in that case?
So this isn't because of treaties, it's because they think Spain/other Axis will attack them anyway
Not even a remotely plausible comparison. Britain had no interests in the Arctic, but had entire fleet in the Mediterranean.
Also, Spain has no navy worthy of the name, leaving its coasts vulnerable to naval bombardment.
Anything that extends the Reich's (and Mussolini's) thin resources over a larger area is always helpful.
Forces that are moved to Spain cannot be in the USSR and North Africa.
Indeed Salazar won't. Not siding with Britain will mean economic disaster and the loss of Estado Novo's colonies.
Depends on how the war goes, and how and possibly when Spain gets occupied.I would have to wonder if a unified Spain would survive in the post-war era.
There was, surprisingly enough, more to the Arctic convoys than PQ17.
To quote from the WW2 Database on the Arctic Convoys:
While PQ-17 stood out as one of the more disastrous missions, many of the other 77 arctic convoy missions suffered losses as well, including the later JW and RA series of convoys that ran between Dec 1942 and the end of the European War in May 1945. In total, 104 Allied merchant ships were sunk with the arctic convoys, along with 18 warships; 829 merchant mariners and 1,944 navy personnel were killed aboard them. The Soviet Union lost 30 merchant ships and an unknown number of personnel. In the attempt to disrupt the convoys, the Germans lost 5 surface warships, 31 submarines, and many aircraft.
77 convoys. 104 merchant ships (1.35 per trip on average) and 18 warships. Germany lost 31 submarines doing this, in what are nigh on perfect survival conditions for submarines of the period.
PQ-17 was a disaster. Most Arctic convoys got through unscathed or nearly so.
This, of course, begs the question as to when Spain leaps into joining the Axis.
If it is before the Fall of France, then it gives the French fleet at places such as Mars el Kebir something productive to do. Which could have some interesting knock-on effects.
If it is after the Fall of France but before the Battle of Britain, then the Germans won't be sending any Luftwaffe or Kriegsmarine there. Rather more important matters to deal with.
If it is after the Battle of Britain but before Barbarossa, then committing air and sea units to Gibraltar does horrible things to the Axis position in North Africa.
If it is after Barbarossa, then the phrase "more important things to worry about than Spain" springs to mind.
So this isn't because of treaties, it's because they think Spain/other Axis will attack them anyway
@archangel could help us with the Portuguese part.
There was a real fear in the portuguese government of the time that Spain would invade Portugal, especially if it joined the Axis. While it's not impossible that Salazar would join the Axis under pressure, given his opportunism, he was also aware that it would be a delayed suicide for POrtugal's economy and colonies (and for him, too, he was already wearing off his support in a mostly pro-Allies population). So, it would be most likely a continuation of neutrality, but in case of invasion there were rumours that there were plans to set a government in the Azores, and which would side with the Allies.Depends on how the war goes, and how and possibly when Spain gets occupied.
If Portugal enters the war they would probably snatch back Olivenza, but there is no plausible reason for them to seize further Spanish territory.
I suppose a independent Catalonia and Basque country isn't impossible, depending on the course of the war.