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Spain in the Axis: what next?

Equatorial Guinea gets rapidly seized by British colonial forces at least.

And Goa. With South African troops invading Mozambique and Angola to follow.


Still the question of how the British do this in 1940-1941 is a big ask. There are no friend air bases nearby and the Spanish control the approaches to the peninsula, meaning any convoys would have to face a gauntlet of mines, U-Boats, E-Boats and the Luftwaffe.

So, like the English Channel, but with even less chance of success.

Gibraltar will be such a Verdun-style meat grinder for Spanish troops and civilians the Italians won't go near it, and the Germans may not either.
 
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Don't see why Britain would invade Portuguese colonies, when Spain in Axis probably forces Lisbon to look at more formal relationship with the Allies

Hypothetical response to Salazar joining the Axis. (Never going to happen, Ukraine has a better chance of joining)

In the event of Spain declaring war on Britain, Portugal has little choice in the matter, and will seek the support of its long standing and most powerful ally. 🇬🇧
 
Hypothetical response to Salazar joining the Axis. (Never going to happen, Ukraine has a better chance of joining)

In the event of Spain declaring war on Britain, Portugal has little choice in the matter, and will seek the support of its long standing and most powerful ally. 🇬🇧

An underrated reoccurring bit in Hetalia is that England is friends with Portugal mostly just to own Spain,forming an odd friendshi that Portugal doesn’t mind due how laid back he is.
 
So, like the English Channel, but with even less chance of success.

No, it'd be vastly worse because the English Channel could be covered by land based British airpower. This is more akin to the Northern Lend Lease route with its associated disasters of PQ-17, where losses among shipping was so high that in 1942 they shut down the route completely until the winter and its covering darkness.

Gibraltar will be such a Verdun-style meat grinder for Spanish troops and civilians the Italians won't go near it, and the Germans may not either.

The Germans were definitely getting involved, Operation Felix was actively being readied from the Summer of 1940 onward with a team of German military officers arriving in country for the planning and preparation stage almost as soon as France surrendered. A corps with heavy artillery support was to be involved, and basically it seems like they were planning for something very close to what I've been saying: a siege out of the Rock, since it cannot last long once its means of resupply is cut, particularly among water. A Verdun style situation is impossible when Gibraltar, unlike Verdun, is completely surrounded without resupply and rapidly runs out of fresh water to boot as soon as the Germans/Spanish start shelling it.

Hypothetical response to Salazar joining the Axis. (Never going to happen, Ukraine has a better chance of joining)

In the event of Spain declaring war on Britain, Portugal has little choice in the matter, and will seek the support of its long standing and most powerful ally. 🇬🇧

An ally that in 1940 has no army to send to support Portugal and is busy fighting for its life against the Luftwaffe, while Spain in a partial mobilization in 1942 showed it could raise 800,000 troops fairly easily. Portugal isn't going to commit national suicide, and would probably end up more akin to Switzerland or Sweden in terms of its relationship with the Axis. It's worth noting the Portuguese didn't even allow the Azores to be used until much later under far better strategic circumstances then described here.
 
No, it'd be vastly worse because the English Channel could be covered by land based British airpower. This is more akin to the Northern Lend Lease route with its associated disasters of PQ-17, where losses among shipping was so high that in 1942 they shut down the route completely until the winter and its covering darkness.

Not even a remotely plausible comparison. Britain had no interests in the Arctic, but had entire fleet in the Mediterranean.

Also, Spain has no navy worthy of the name, leaving its coasts vulnerable to naval bombardment.

Anything that extends the Reich's (and Mussolini's) thin resources over a larger area is always helpful.

Forces that are moved to Spain cannot be in the USSR and North Africa.

Portugal isn't going to commit national suicide.

Indeed Salazar won't. Not siding with Britain will mean economic disaster and the loss of Estado Novo's colonies.


Why not? It would be bad for Portugal if Spain and Britain are fighting, but is it bad enough to suffer bombers and invasion?

The 1899 Treaty of Windsor was still in force.

Salazar only remained neutral in 1939 is because the British asked them to.

Salazar's policy of neutrality for Portugal in World War II included a strategic component. The country still held colonies that because of their poor economic development could not defend themselves from military attack.

Since the British did not seek Portuguese assistance, the country expected to remain neutral. On 5 September 1939, the British Government confirmed the understanding and Portugal remained neutral during the entire war.

Spain declaring war on Britain means the obligations on both countries in the Treaty of Windsor comes into force.
 
I could see the treaty being a factor if Spain enters during the 'Bore War' phase, when an Axis Spain would have to fight France on land as well as Portugal, or bringing Portugal in without Spain if Britain decides they'd actually like it to be involved, but by late 1940 the Germans have just ripped their way through most of the European continent and it's easier for them to arrive at Portugal than Britain. Why wouldn't Portugal go "actually, blow the treaty" in that case?
 
Not even a remotely plausible comparison. Britain had no interests in the Arctic, but had entire fleet in the Mediterranean.

Interests =/= Capacity

The Arctic is a very apt comparison because it featured Allied convoys operating far beyond the range of their land based air but within the range of Axis air bases in Norway, as well as serious naval opposition. That would be the case here for Spain, with the difference being a lack of surface units but made up for by the ability to use mines to a greater extent.

If you prefer another example, Britain definitely had an interest in defending Singapore. Ask Force Z how that worked out in terms of the Axis ability to project air power when they couldn't.

Also, Spain has no navy worthy of the name, leaving its coasts vulnerable to naval bombardment.

Spain doesn't, but the Germans have the Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine which more than make up for that. Again, look at the Artic Convoy route and Force Z.

Anything that extends the Reich's (and Mussolini's) thin resources over a larger area is always helpful.

Forces that are moved to Spain cannot be in the USSR and North Africa.

Except the fall of Gibraltar leads to the fall of Malta, vastly improving Axis logistics in North Africa and freeing up large amounts of forces. Further, if the British are having to defend Gibraltar and attack the Spanish as you propose, they too are spreading their forces thin and they have less margin to do so than Hitler in 1940-1941 as I pointed out with the Balkans situation. No Balkans diversion, and it is exceedingly likely Barbarossa is successful in 1941.

Indeed Salazar won't. Not siding with Britain will mean economic disaster and the loss of Estado Novo's colonies.

Is that why Salazar continuously refused to allow the Azores to be used until 1943 despite both British and American pressure? He's not an idiot; no British blockade or loss of the colonies would compare to the Spanish and Germans occupying Portugal and exploiting it. Nor would Washington or London be that stupid to force Portugal into that position as such would make them a willing Axis partner. There's a reason Switzerland and Sweden weren't punished all that seriously IOTL, and why they let Portugal refuse to allow them to use the Azores until it was strategically safe for them to do so.

Also, serious question: where are all these divisions coming from to attack the Spanish and take Portuguese colonies from? Very likely if you're focused on the Canaries or Angola, you're not protecting Egypt, Crete and Malta.
 
@Nick Sumner 's latest Drake's Drum does have a Spanish assault on Gibraltar, backed by Germany and Italy, which leans towards the Axis winning (able to cut off resupply and bomb the place) but Spain isn't too happy with the casualties they took doing it.
 
I would have to wonder if a unified Spain would survive in the post-war era.
Depends on how the war goes, and how and possibly when Spain gets occupied.

If Portugal enters the war they would probably snatch back Olivenza, but there is no plausible reason for them to seize further Spanish territory.

I suppose a independent Catalonia and Basque country isn't impossible, depending on the course of the war.
 
There was, surprisingly enough, more to the Arctic convoys than PQ17.

To quote from the WW2 Database on the Arctic Convoys:

While PQ-17 stood out as one of the more disastrous missions, many of the other 77 arctic convoy missions suffered losses as well, including the later JW and RA series of convoys that ran between Dec 1942 and the end of the European War in May 1945. In total, 104 Allied merchant ships were sunk with the arctic convoys, along with 18 warships; 829 merchant mariners and 1,944 navy personnel were killed aboard them. The Soviet Union lost 30 merchant ships and an unknown number of personnel. In the attempt to disrupt the convoys, the Germans lost 5 surface warships, 31 submarines, and many aircraft.

77 convoys. 104 merchant ships (1.35 per trip on average) and 18 warships. Germany lost 31 submarines doing this, in what are nigh on perfect survival conditions for submarines of the period.

PQ-17 was a disaster. Most Arctic convoys got through unscathed or nearly so.

Most convoys didn't get through unscathed, as your source notes, but beyond that it's playing with statistics to cite 1943-1945 as having any relevancy. The Allies were able to reduce their losses as American production came online and the situation improved elsewhere, freeing up more escorts for use on the route; in particular, the widespread introduction of fleet and escort carriers reducing the threat of the Luftwaffe and helping to rollback the U-Boat threat. None of the beneficial developments are there in 1940-1942 and it's worth noting the disasters of early 1942 like PQ-17 forced the shut down of the route; there is a reason the quoted paragraph cites the JW series starting in December, because that's when the Allies started running convoys again on that route.

Losses in 1942 were so bad they shut it down for months. A month alone would be fatal for Gibraltar.

This, of course, begs the question as to when Spain leaps into joining the Axis.

If it is before the Fall of France, then it gives the French fleet at places such as Mars el Kebir something productive to do. Which could have some interesting knock-on effects.

If it is after the Fall of France but before the Battle of Britain, then the Germans won't be sending any Luftwaffe or Kriegsmarine there. Rather more important matters to deal with.

If it is after the Battle of Britain but before Barbarossa, then committing air and sea units to Gibraltar does horrible things to the Axis position in North Africa.

If it is after Barbarossa, then the phrase "more important things to worry about than Spain" springs to mind.

OP specifies the Hendaye Talks of October 1940, at that point the Germans have no commitments to North Africa and Barbarossa is not for many months. There's also the domino effect that needs to be accounted for, in that if Gibraltar falls that means Malta is vastly more likely to do so which improves the Axis position in North Africa as well as in the Balkans/USSR.
 
So this isn't because of treaties, it's because they think Spain/other Axis will attack them anyway
@archangel could help us with the Portuguese part.
Depends on how the war goes, and how and possibly when Spain gets occupied.

If Portugal enters the war they would probably snatch back Olivenza, but there is no plausible reason for them to seize further Spanish territory.

I suppose a independent Catalonia and Basque country isn't impossible, depending on the course of the war.
There was a real fear in the portuguese government of the time that Spain would invade Portugal, especially if it joined the Axis. While it's not impossible that Salazar would join the Axis under pressure, given his opportunism, he was also aware that it would be a delayed suicide for POrtugal's economy and colonies (and for him, too, he was already wearing off his support in a mostly pro-Allies population). So, it would be most likely a continuation of neutrality, but in case of invasion there were rumours that there were plans to set a government in the Azores, and which would side with the Allies.
Regarding territorial acquisitions (or reacquisitions), Olivença and Táliga would be a given. Other places that come to mind would be Galiza (same language), Ceuta (originally Portuguese), or Annobon Island (originally Portuguese), or even Bioko Island. More than that, it would be extremely unlikely.
 
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