Spain in the Axis: what next?

[Meadow]

It’s the anniversary of the Hendaye talks today. Franco’s not going to swing the war to Germany’s favour, and if the Hendaye demands are remotely met, Hitler may end up with an even worse supply situation and lose even quicker. They probably weren’t going to be able to even take Gibraltar.

But what I’ve not seen discussed is what happens in 43-44 when things are suddenly very Allied in the Med. Would Franco have attempted to do a Vittorio-Emanuele and change sides? Would the Allies have been interested? It seems more likely than FDR going “nope, you’re another fascist nation we need to march through now”.

If Franco isn’t shrewd enough to realise he needs to decouple from the Corporal, what moves against him could happen? Spain was still shattered from civil war and obviously opposition was in a tired state. But was there anything from within, or even something more hopeful, that could have - whisper it - led to a paradoxically better Spanish postwar setup than OTL?

 

[RyanF]

In terms of Franco attempting to flip-flop once it's clear that there is no way the Axis are winning, I think you're right that the Allies won't play ball because honestly what's in it for them? If Franco has reached the point of reaching out for terms then he's already burned his bridges with the art student in Berlin and the political journalist in Rome.

There is definitely a moral need to rid Spain from Fascism as much as those elsewhere in Europe under occupation, but at the same time there might be the idea that any Spanish campaign would be a distraction with the Allies in such control of the Med. Only way I can see a concerted campaign is if Churchill gets it into his head that Spain is the even softer underbelly of Europe, then everyone else goes along with him.

Maybe a more logical move would be to just cut Spain off entirely from the rest of the Axis (if they weren't 100% already) and sponsor whatever anti-Francoist forces are active in the country. I've not much of an idea of the state of opposition and resistance to the Franco regime within Spain, beyond coming out of defeat and facing huge repression, but however small the movements were OTL the war might galvanise them. Especially if outright alliance with the Nazis and Fascist Italy sees the Falangists in any sort of ascendency. There were plenty of leaders from the Republican faction in exile, would the Allies be willing to start dropping them and supplies into the country?

Resistance support does present an interesting situation, the same divisions within the Republican movement 1936-39 will be present in 1943-44. How ironic it would be for the UK to offer more support to any revived Republican faction in partnership with the Soviet Union. Does this spill into a Second Civil War comparable to what was seen in Italy?

If Franco can't get peace is there an attempted palace coup? Or, really "Paco, head over to Lisbon for a wee visit with Salazar, we'll shoot a few Falangists to show we mean business then make peace." Not sure who would lead that, I wonder if Alfonso XIII was still alive if they might not have tired inviting him back rather than surrender to the forces backing the Republicans and Socialists. Speaking of the monarchy, I wonder if Infante Juan plays any part in proceedings. He served in the RN and OTL 1945 gave a speech demanding he replace Franco, later being skipped over by the dictator in favour of Juan Carlos since he favoured a constitutional monarchy.

A huge miscalculation in backing the Allies and then a revived Civil War might leave Spain in a far, far worse situation in 1945 than OTL. After dislodging the Francoists and Falangists would the Republicans, Socialists and any Monarchists turn on each other? Could there even be a third civil war under the auspices of the Cold War?

Perhaps the best possible outcome in Spain entering World War II on the side of the Axis is eventually they might be due for some Marshall Plan money.

 

[Geordie]

One has to consider where the supplies of food, fuel and arms are coming from. If the answer is "the Germans", then who doesn't get them as a result? Does it mean the Eastern front is weakened? Are troops stripped from the Balkans? Similarly, the differences in the Med, North Africa and Atlantic are pretty massive. The ripples flow in many directions.

I can't see FDR trusting Franco. Spain - even a starving and half-destroyed Spain - is in a position to fuck up the Atlantic crossings, and they may have done so ever since 1940 in this hypothetical. U-boats and Condors in Ferrol and a Coruña are bad juju. Once he's jumped into bed with Adolf, he can't snuggle under the covers of the Allies.

I think "what happens next" might depend on when Spain falls, relative to the fall of Germany. The latter in the war Spain capitulated, the more likely it is that the US State Department is looking for somebody with anti- Communist credentials, impacting who ends up in charge.

 

[Doctor Sulemain]

I was under the impression that literally the only thing keeping Spain from starving during WW2 was American grain imports?

 

[lerk]

Will probably keep the Western Allies bogged down a bit, might lead to a scenario where all of Germany (and possibly Denmark) is under Communism, though I don't think it'll be enough to lead to a "Paris Wall" situation.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

I was under the impression that literally the only thing keeping Spain from starving during WW2 was American grain imports?

And the US was their main source of gasoline.

Operation Torch will land in Portugal, not Morocco, in November 1942.

 

[Ricardolindo]

This is more plausible than people might think. The memories of Mussolini's chaffeur were released a few years ago and Franco is reported to have told Mussolini that he was sad that negotiations had not been successful.

 

[Stateless]

Operation Pilgrim goes into effect.

Post-war, Gibraltar is gone for Spain. I don't see the Canaries going for Iceland-style independence after the war, but maybe it's not impossible.

 

[Yokai Man]

And the US was their main source of gasoline.

Added with the oil embargos from the Allies that kept Spain remain neutral OTL,Franco would be lucky if Spain doesn’t fall apart by 1942 to put mildly.

This in term would create a scenario where Germany is forced to step in and somehow stabilize the country while everything falls into anarchy and the Allies/any kind of resistance easily take over at least a third of Spain.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Operation Pilgrim goes into effect.

Post-war, Gibraltar is gone for Spain. I don't see the Canaries going for Iceland-style independence after the war, but maybe it's not impossible.

I think Canary independence is impossible. The islands were very poor and the Canarians considered themselves Spanish.

 

[Yokai Man]

Actually,now that I think about it,the Maquis being predominantly anarcho-syndicalists might lead to an interesting postwar scene where Spain is technically part of the non aligned movement,an independent Catalonia and Basque Republic are a thing and Spanish politics is dominated by various anarchist and socialist movements that neither Washington or Moscow are comfortable with.

 

[TheIO]

Operation Pilgrim goes into effect.

Post-war, Gibraltar is gone for Spain. I don't see the Canaries going for Iceland-style independence after the war, but maybe it's not impossible.

Canaries I don't see. But Spain still owned Equatorial Guinea and good chunks of Morocco. What would happen to those in a Spain at war scenario?

 

[Gary Oswald]

Would spanish entry not possibly lead to a delay in Barbarossa while the axis focused on the med?

You had people like Reader arguing that taking the middle east and peacing out the british first would make a later campaign much more easy.

Now the chances of them actually doing that with slim even with spanish support thanks to logistical issues but if they delay the invasion of the soviets by even a year before that becomes apparent, it probably makes them much less successful on the initial assault and therefore the chance that the soviets have a lot less territory to eat up.

Which obviously will change how the allies view western europe.

 

[Stateless]

Canaries I don't see. But Spain still owned Equatorial Guinea and good chunks of Morocco. What would happen to those in a Spain at war scenario?

I suppose more realistically you could have Britain decide 'nah, we're keeping the Canaries' and then they get independence when the winds of change blow through Africa.

 

[Charles EP M.]

Added with the oil embargos from the Allies that kept Spain remain neutral OTL,Franco would be lucky if Spain doesn’t fall apart by 1942 to put mildly.

Germany trying to hold Spain in line while also still in North Africa, trying to conquer the USSR, and wage war in the Atlantic and hold down various countries and stop Germany being bombed, how long is that going to work before the camel goes "Jesus Christ take this straw off"?

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

There's two main land supply routes into Spain, Hendaye and Somport, both through the Pyrenees. Lose one of those, and Spain is fucked as an Axis power.

There's also 18,000 Spanish troops in the USSR in 1941, and they ain't coming back, either.

 

[Torten]

Gibraltar is fucked, which cuts off the Western Med for the British.

However, if Hitler promises the Spanish government concessions such as French Morocco, and even some of French Algeria, then the Vichy French are going to be rather annoyed.

 

[History Learner]

It’s the anniversary of the Hendaye talks today. Franco’s not going to swing the war to Germany’s favour, and if the Hendaye demands are remotely met, Hitler may end up with an even worse supply situation and lose even quicker. They probably weren’t going to be able to even take Gibraltar.

But what I’ve not seen discussed is what happens in 43-44 when things are suddenly very Allied in the Med. Would Franco have attempted to do a Vittorio-Emanuele and change sides? Would the Allies have been interested? It seems more likely than FDR going “nope, you’re another fascist nation we need to march through now”.

If Franco isn’t shrewd enough to realise he needs to decouple from the Corporal, what moves against him could happen? Spain was still shattered from civil war and obviously opposition was in a tired state. But was there anything from within, or even something more hopeful, that could have - whisper it - led to a paradoxically better Spanish postwar setup than OTL?

They're definitely going to take Gibraltar, the airfield is within range of small arms fire from the Spanish mainland and the water supply is extremely vulnerable, with the storage facilities mostly consisting of outside, open area catchments. As soon as the Axis start running bombing raids and artillery strikes, its going to be a matter of weeks at most before the place falls. The results of such on the strategic side are vast, with the first thing coming to mind being that Malta is completely untenable. That in of itself is going to vastly improve Axis logistics in North Africa, with the further knock on effect that Churchill's efforts to aid Greece are out of the question. That, I contend, could be decisive for the course of the war, in that it makes it exceedingly likely the USSR is crippled in 1941.

Alternatively, of course, Spain being in the Axis and Gibraltar falling increases the political prospects of the Mediterranean Option being advocated within Germany in 1940-1941. Hitler could choose to postpone Barbarossa in favor of focusing in the aforementioned area, and by the time 1942 rolls around it's just impossible to launch Barbarossa. This sets the stage for a Three Way Cold War or, alternatively, Stalin moves to strike first as Glantz and others have stated, which creates an open picture. Personally, my money would be on the Germans but a lot depends on the specifics and what Japan as well as the United States have been doing.

And the US was their main source of gasoline.

Operation Torch will land in Portugal, not Morocco, in November 1942.

I feel sorry for the ~100,000 troops, mostly untested Americans, landing in Iberia to face 850,000+ Axis soldiers with air superiority backing them.

 

[Yokai Man]

They're definitely going to take Gibraltar, the airfield is within range of small arms fire from the Spanish mainland and the water supply is extremely vulnerable, with the storage facilities mostly consisting of outside, open area catchments. As soon as the Axis start running bombing raids and artillery strikes, its going to be a matter of weeks at most before the place falls. The results of such on the strategic side are vast, with the first thing coming to mind being that Malta is completely untenable. That in of itself is going to vastly improve Axis logistics in North Africa, with the further knock on effect that Churchill's efforts to aid Greece are out of the question. That, I contend, could be decisive for the course of the war, in that it makes it exceedingly likely the USSR is crippled in 1941.

Alternatively, of course, Spain being in the Axis and Gibraltar falling increases the political prospects of the Mediterranean Option being advocated within Germany in 1940-1941. Hitler could choose to postpone Barbarossa in favor of focusing in the aforementioned area, and by the time 1942 rolls around it's just impossible to launch Barbarossa. This sets the stage for a Three Way Cold War or, alternatively, Stalin moves to strike first as Glantz and others have stated, which creates an open picture. Personally, my money would be on the Germans but a lot depends on the specifics and what Japan as well as the United States have been doing.



I feel sorry for the ~100,000 troops, mostly untested Americans, landing in Iberia to face 850,000+ Axis soldiers with air superiority backing them.

Again,it would be a goddamn miracle if Spain doesn’t go bankrupt and fall into anarchy because of embargoes. By November 1942 there would barely be a functioning government beyond the German occupied parts and the Maquis controlled parts.

Afterall,Spain being nearly bankrupt after the Civil War is the main reason why Franco didn’t join the Axis in the war-he just couldn’t afford it.

 

[History Learner]

Again,it would be a goddamn miracle if Spain doesn’t go bankrupt and fall into anarchy because of embargoes. By November 1942 there would barely be a functioning government beyond the German occupied parts and the Maquis controlled parts.

Afterall,Spain being nearly bankrupt after the Civil War is the main reason why Franco didn’t join the Axis in the war-he just couldn’t afford it.

The economic case is one that has been extremely over-stated; outside of fuel, I don't foresee it being that horrendous of an issue to cause a societal collapse, although you would need would probably need a serious rationing regime in effect. Case in point, Spain was actively exporting large amounts of food during the war that could instead be turned towards internal consumption. The main reason Franco didn't join the war was ultimately political, not economic; Hitler just couldn't cut Franco enough concessions territorially without alienating both Vichy and Italy, which is why he held back and in turn Franco held back. Most of the more recent scholarship on the matter supports the position that Franco was willing, Hitler was reluctant.