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Erin's Erfurt III Experience


Well-known member
I reckon the CDU will end up doing better in the Erststimmen than they do in the Zweitstimmen.
Yeah, there's got to be some personal votes there for some incumbents.
Pretty much guaranteed, yeah. In 2017 the CDU and SPD both did about 4-5 points better in 1st votes than 2nd. In general, 1st votes don't tend to swing as much as 2nd votes, especially when incumbents are involved. There are a lot of constituencies where the 1st vs 2nd vote winners are different - a lot of SPD seats were like this in the last election. It's also how the AfD won the most 2nd votes in Saxony in 2017 but only 3 of 16 constituencies.