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Alternate History General Discussion

Been trying to read more on Ireland during the 18th century since I’ve been wondering on how badly Britain would be affected if they lost it during the French Revolutionary Wars.

Apparently they had about 4 to 5 million inhabitants by 1800, made up nearly half the Royal Army, and about 20% of the Royal Navy.

While I don’t expect every Irishman in the armed forces to revolt if Ireland was somehow independent with French assistance, it does seem like, pre-potato famine, losing Ireland is gonna make Britain much less of a threat if it’s gone for longer than a few years.

I wonder how desperate they would be to get it back.
The bigger problem for Britain is that the only way they're losing Ireland to the French is if they've lost their naval dominance. And if Britain's lost its naval dominance then the whole of British grand strategy collapses, and what they're left with is the French across the Channel and the Irish across the Irish Sea closing in on them like a garrot.
 
The bigger problem for Britain is that the only way they're losing Ireland to the French is if they've lost their naval dominance. And if Britain's lost its naval dominance then the whole of British grand strategy collapses, and what they're left with is the French across the Channel and the Irish across the Irish Sea closing in on them like a garrot.
Yeah, this has what's ultimately scuppered a few AH daydreams I've had of a 18th century independent Ireland (perhaps Jacobite) and a great power Britain squaring off, seeing if they're fated to enmity or instead something more nuanced-anything that's bad enough for Britain that it results in permanently losing Ireland in this period would also finish Britain as a major power.
 
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Yeah, I was always of two minds of Ireland staying independent because I very much doubt the British are gonna take it lying down, but my general thought process on at least a briefly free Ireland is that:

- Hoche and his troops land on Ireland and, with the garrison there poorly manned and supplied, rapidly takes territory.

- Seeing Hoche’s success in Ireland, alongside the encouragement of the United Irishmen, Irish citizens and troops begin to defect to his side, strengthening his momentum as he marches to-take the entire island, even capturing Dublin itself

- A British counter-attack is offset by earlier and perhaps even stronger naval mutinies in the vein of Spithead and Nore, while dealing with a creeking economy as there is a massive run on the Bank of England because of the panic surrounding a potential French invasion.

- This window allows Hoche to take the whole of Ireland and declare the Hibernian Republic, probably with Wolfe Tone as the head of the government.

After that, I’m not sure on what’s gonna happen next. While there’s a good chance the British do take back Ireland, the brief feeling of independence would probably stoke the flames of resistance in Ireland and could degenerate into a guerilla war.
 
A bit of random speculation, after pondering the Oppenheimer movie:

One key scene in the film makes clear how the persecution/extermination of Jews by the Nazis and European Fascists in general drove Einstein, Szilard, Frisch, Teller, Fermi and many other scientists of Jewish descent or relations to the U.S. and U.K., thus helping to cripple the German nuclear program and boost the Manhattan Project to success. In his TL191 series and the Crosstime book Curious Notions, Turtledove details worlds in which the Nazis don't arise, and so the majority of these scientists remain in Germany or Europe overall, forming the core of the Central Powers brain trust; therefore, the Kaiser gets the bomb first in both cases, because the Germans don't persecute Jews to the extent that Tsarist Russia or AF France do (they're "too civilized for that sort of thing", as I recall one character saying).

Setting aside the plausibility of that for the moment, presuming a scenario where the U.S. doesn't have a large number of specialists from Europe, Jewish and otherwise, on hand to complete an atomic bomb project in the period 1930s-1950s, who would be the likeliest people approached for such an undertaking? Oppenheimer is an obvious choice, on the presumption he's still born in this TL, and Feynman is another possibility, but who else? And if the OTL emigre specialists are working on an A-bomb for Germany in such an ATL, for one reason or another, what are the odds they succeed before the ATL Manhattan Project?
 
A bit of random speculation, after pondering the Oppenheimer movie:

One key scene in the film makes clear how the persecution/extermination of Jews by the Nazis and European Fascists in general drove Einstein, Szilard, Frisch, Teller, Fermi and many other scientists of Jewish descent or relations to the U.S. and U.K., thus helping to cripple the German nuclear program and boost the Manhattan Project to success. In his TL191 series and the Crosstime book Curious Notions, Turtledove details worlds in which the Nazis don't arise, and so the majority of these scientists remain in Germany or Europe overall, forming the core of the Central Powers brain trust; therefore, the Kaiser gets the bomb first in both cases, because the Germans don't persecute Jews to the extent that Tsarist Russia or AF France do (they're "too civilized for that sort of thing", as I recall one character saying).

Setting aside the plausibility of that for the moment, presuming a scenario where the U.S. doesn't have a large number of specialists from Europe, Jewish and otherwise, on hand to complete an atomic bomb project in the period 1930s-1950s, who would be the likeliest people approached for such an undertaking? Oppenheimer is an obvious choice, on the presumption he's still born in this TL, and Feynman is another possibility, but who else? And if the OTL emigre specialists are working on an A-bomb for Germany in such an ATL, for one reason or another, what are the odds they succeed before the ATL Manhattan Project?
Jens Larssen, clearly.

Joking aside, tricky question. It's less obvious whether the US would still get Hungarians who emigrated in the 1930s ("the Martians") like Szilard and Teller, and would depend on the precise circumstances. As for existing American nuclear physicists, names that spring to mind include Arthur Compton, John R. Dunning and Ernest Lawrence, some of whom played roles in the Manhattan Project in OTL.

I think the last question comes more down to who can persuade the powers that be to produce funding and resources sooner.

While speculation about atomic weapons goes back many years before WW2, it was a very pie-in-the-sky idea, it'd be like trying to persuade a politician nowadays to fund a space elevator. And a big part of it was the conviction that the other guys were already working on it, might get there first and be a threat.

A lot will depend on whether alt-Germany is already in a war, because that can affect things either way - either a wonder weapon might be desirable to break a stalemate, or it might be seen as a blue-skies idea they can't waste resources on because even if it works, it wouldn't bear fruit soon enough.
 
So up for pre-order on Amazon is a reprint of a 1970 AH, The Indians Won, that I'd never heard of and by a primarily crime/thriller writer:

First published in 1970 and long out of print, The Indians Won is a stunning work of speculative fiction that imagines that, following the defeat of Custer and Benteen at the Little Bighorn in 1876, the many Indigenous tribes of America formed an alliance to sweep the whites out of the center of the country and form a new nation, bounded on both coasts by the United States. One hundred years later the two nations, having taken very different paths toward stewardship of the land and resources, are on the brink of war again, as the five hundred million wasichu of the United States eye the vast, open center of the continent, just as they had prior to their explusion in the nineteenth century. The difference is, now they are both nuclear powers.

Imaginative, enthralling, rich in historical detail, and written from the perspective of a Native American writer, The Indians Won is an emotionally charged novel that asks the question: What if the Indians had won?
 
So up for pre-order on Amazon is a reprint of a 1970 AH, The Indians Won, that I'd never heard of and by a primarily crime/thriller writer:
Looks like that would be a very interesting time capsule of Indian Indigenous politics. 1970 is just before the big resurgence in Native American/Indigenous activism in the US and Canada.
 
So up for pre-order on Amazon is a reprint of a 1970 AH, The Indians Won, that I'd never heard of and by a primarily crime/thriller writer:
That's fascinating, I enjoyed* much of Cruz Smith's work, always quite detailed. This very different north America is very intriguing. Also the high population

*Although I found his writing of sex scenes uncomfortable, messy amd usually someone was using someone else.
 
What are your thoughts on Matt Mitrovich's latest video, which in the spirit of the season is about the 1914 Christmas Truce?

 
What are your thoughts on Matt Mitrovich's latest video, which in the spirit of the season is about the 1914 Christmas Truce?



Its more a Christmas revolution as it starts with soldiers from both sides having a truce which escalates in the end of the Great European War (World War I i only see if the United States gets involved).
 
Much as I like reading it, I feel as if alternate history writers really don’t know when to stop. Some of my favorite stories are answering pretty regional questions like “What if Greece became independent in the 19th century” or “What if Oda Nobunaga lived to reunite Japan” just kept going and the initial premise and focus is just one small detail now that the author is focusing on the entire world.

Or Europe, lotta Eurocentrism, to be honest.
 
I think it's easy to understand, especially for writers just starting out - they get limited interaction with their work, so when they get a question about how a specific country or individual or movement is affected, they answer it, and then things spiral out of control.

Telling people "that's out of scope, sorry" is hard.
 
Something I always wondered: if George McMahon actually managed to kill Edward VIII (whether intentionally or by accident,depending on your views of the event),would MI5 try to cover up the fact that they more or less ignored him/had him as a double agent and blame Italy for it?

In which case,if Britain goes to war with Benny over this (and it is very likely),would Germany do anything about it?

@Time Enough @Walpurgisnacht
 
Something I always wondered: if George McMahon actually managed to kill Edward VIII (whether intentionally or by accident,depending on your views of the event),would MI5 try to cover up the fact that they more or less ignored him/had him as a double agent and blame Italy for it?

In which case,if Britain goes to war with Benny over this (and it is very likely),would Germany do anything about it?

It has a ring of Oswald about it, the supposedly lone delusional assassin with bizarre ties to foreign powers and domestic intelligence removes a new King who the British establishment were growing increasingly wary of. I doubt this would lead to war with Italy, relations had soured but unless McMahon has any substance to his claims the Italians will deny any connection to him, however it will make great fodder for conspiracy theorists especially if/when MI5 eventually admit he was on their books.
 
Something I always wondered: if George McMahon actually managed to kill Edward VIII (whether intentionally or by accident,depending on your views of the event),would MI5 try to cover up the fact that they more or less ignored him/had him as a double agent and blame Italy for it?

In which case,if Britain goes to war with Benny over this (and it is very likely),would Germany do anything about it?

@Time Enough @Walpurgisnacht

It has a ring of Oswald about it, the supposedly lone delusional assassin with bizarre ties to foreign powers and domestic intelligence removes a new King who the British establishment were growing increasingly wary of. I doubt this would lead to war with Italy, relations had soured but unless McMahon has any substance to his claims the Italians will deny any connection to him, however it will make great fodder for conspiracy theorists especially if/when MI5 eventually admit he was on their books.
I see @The Red point being the most likely candidate for what would occur in the aftermath, Baldwin probably resigns by the end of the year due to being sick of it all and having a dead King not helping (so slightly earlier Neville).

I think the main point is that Edward would possibly become a martyr to anti-establishment forces within Britain particularly if McMahon’s connections to Scotland Yard and MI5 are uncovered, which could have interesting consequences on British politics.
 
It has a ring of Oswald about it, the supposedly lone delusional assassin with bizarre ties to foreign powers and domestic intelligence removes a new King who the British establishment were growing increasingly wary of. I doubt this would lead to war with Italy, relations had soured but unless McMahon has any substance to his claims the Italians will deny any connection to him, however it will make great fodder for conspiracy theorists especially if/when MI5 eventually admit he was on their books.
I see @The Red point being the most likely candidate for what would occur in the aftermath, Baldwin probably resigns by the end of the year due to being sick of it all and having a dead King not helping (so slightly earlier Neville).

I think the main point is that Edward would possibly become a martyr to anti-establishment forces within Britain particularly if McMahon’s connections to Scotland Yard and MI5 are uncovered, which could have interesting consequences on British politics.
If McMahon died shortly after via the guards shooting him and with MI5 wanting to hide their connections with him,could they lie/forge something to avoid responsability? After all,no one knows he's connected to them-if people need a scapegoat,the Italians are always there.
 
If McMahon died shortly after via the guards shooting him and with MI5 wanting to hide their connections with him,could they lie/forge something to avoid responsability? After all,no one knows he's connected to them-if people need a scapegoat,the Italians are always there.
If McMahon is killed immediately after then it's easier to dismiss him as a loner, anything tying them to McMahon would likely be burned or locked away and anyone who seeks out such a connection would likely receive some sort of cease and desist, possibly in an unofficial manner. I doubt the Italians would be necessary as a scapegoat if McMahon isn't alive to make the accusation, why trigger a diplomatic crisis to avoid an embarrasment that's much easier to just cover-up.
 
If McMahon is killed immediately after then it's easier to dismiss him as a loner, anything tying them to McMahon would likely be burned or locked away and anyone who seeks out such a connection would likely receive some sort of cease and desist, possibly in an unofficial manner. I doubt the Italians would be necessary as a scapegoat if McMahon isn't alive to make the accusation, why trigger a diplomatic crisis to avoid an embarrasment that's much easier to just cover-up.
I see,thank you!
 
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