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WI: Japan Doesn't Surrender in August 1945, Instead Collapsing After Allied Blockade in 1946

F

frustrated progressive

SLPing Through the Cracks
If Japan doesn't surrender in August 1945, and instead of invading, the Allies simply blockade and bomb Japan, leading to the collapse of the Japanese regime in November 1946 and an Allied "humanitarian intervention", with, say, a loss of 20% of the Japanese Home Islands civilian population, what would happen? Pretty obviously there'd be a Japanese Republic, but could it be stabilized? What would be theconsequences for the rest of Asia and the Cold War?
 
It's possible that all of Korea would have been taken by the USSR, butterflying away the North-South split and the Korean War. Which may have lead to a President MacArthur (and isn't THAT a scary thought!). Japan would have stabilised eventually. Though considering just how far into the 1800s it would have been blasted, their economic miracle likely doesn't take place.
 
If Korea is fully red and the CPC still wins the Civil War, I could see the nascent Japanese Republic emulating South Korea's history part of being part of the free world but not actually free. I could see Japan doing a remilitarization due to Cold War pressures. Maybe TTL's Korean war could be a Taiwan straits crisis type deal. I could see Kim il-Sung ending up losing a power struggle in the mid-50s when De-stalinazation starts.

President MacArthur with a increased McCarthyist fervor in TTL will definitely be "fun" to see.
 
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Japan would have to be stabilized on some level - you can't have an ex-Great Power just falling to pieces like that, especially at the Soviets' backdoor. Whether or not we'll see the postwar economic miracle... that's another issue.
 
I mean short of the US electing Robert Taft Japan will get US aid, but if there's no economic miracle in Japan. I would what would happen to the electronics industry.
 
frustrated progressive said:
If Japan doesn't surrender in August 1945, and instead of invading, the Allies simply blockade and bomb Japan, leading to the collapse of the Japanese regime in November 1946 and an Allied "humanitarian intervention", with, say, a loss of 20% of the Japanese Home Islands civilian population, what would happen?
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This scenario needs a bit more context to try and guess what would happen subsequently. The Japanese regime falls apart in November 1946 but how does this transpire? Are they overthrown?
 
The Red said:
This scenario needs a bit more context to try and guess what would happen subsequently. The Japanese regime falls apart in November 1946 but how does this transpire? Are they overthrown?
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Indeed, would the Allies proceed with operations in the Asian mainland in such scenario instead? Landings in China or South Korea?
 
frustrated progressive said:
If Japan doesn't surrender in August 1945, and instead of invading, the Allies simply blockade and bomb Japan, leading to the collapse of the Japanese regime in November 1946 and an Allied "humanitarian intervention", with, say, a loss of 20% of the Japanese Home Islands civilian population, what would happen? Pretty obviously there'd be a Japanese Republic, but could it be stabilized? What would be theconsequences for the rest of Asia and the Cold War?
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Do this also include the Soviet attempted invasion of the Japanese home island, because i always toughed the Japanese feared the Soviet invading them more than the two atomic bombs being dropped, that why they surrendered.
 
lordroel said:
Do this also include the Soviet attempted invasion of the Japanese home island, because i always toughed the Japanese feared the Soviet invading them more than the two atomic bombs being dropped, that why they surrendered.
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As far as I recall, there was no solid Soviet plan to invade Hokkaido, but that could of course change if the Americansdon't invade (which could indeed revive Olympic.
 
frustrated progressive said:
As far as I recall, there was no solid Soviet plan to invade Hokkaido, but that could of course change if the Americansdon't invade (which could indeed revive Olympic.
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Well any Soviet invasion n of the Japaneses home islands is not going to be a walk in the park like they did when they steamed rolled Manchuria and Korea, they will go against a defender who will do anything and everything to keep the Soviets of their beaches.
 
lordroel said:
Well any Soviet invasion n of the Japaneses home islands is not going to be a walk in the park like they did when they steamed rolled Manchuria and Korea, they will go against a defender who will do anything and everything to keep the Soviets of their beaches.
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Which is why it wasn't a real plan IOTL
 
lordroel said:
But if the Soviets even manged to have boots on the beaches and die and latter on the Japanese surrendered, Stalin could make the claim that he deserved a piece of Japan because of Soviet soldiers having died there.
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They'd probably offer him Manchuria, since it was kinda/sorta part of Japan
 
Hokkaido had minimal defense present when Soviet joined the Pacific theatre on August 9th. Japanese defense plan and troop deployment focus were solely focused on the defense of Kanto Plain and Kyushu Islands (Kanto Plains w/ around 600,000 and Kyushu w/500,000 soldiers deployed). Soviet Invasion was considered highly unlikely by the Japanese government even by the first week of August. As such, Hokkaido was defended by the Fifth Area Army, which had -on paper- around 150,000 soldiers with barely any defensive installation. Northern Honshu was not much better, with Eleventh Area Army with some 110,000 soldiers garrisoned. If the Pacific War went on past August - let's say the coup attempt on Augst 14-15 succeeds- Hokkaido will fall at least by end of the year.
 
Barry Bull said:
Indeed, would the Allies proceed with operations in the Asian mainland in such scenario instead? Landings in China or South Korea?
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There was a plan for a landing in Korea but it was ruled out in favour of invading the Home Islands and subsequently used as a feint. If Downfall is cancelled then I wouldn't be surprised if the focus was directed towards Korea instead, although the Soviets had already landed in northern Korea and the Korean Liberation Army were preparing for a national uprising so the problem might take care of itself. The idea of landing in China was a bit more conceptual, as it was assumed that the KMT and the Soviets would do the bulk of the heavy lifting in that theater.
 
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