- Location
- North Solihull
- Pronouns
- she/her
A series of DBWI questions that I've had bouncing around in my head for a while, but prompted by @Comisario and @AlfieJ 's excellent Shuffle timeline.
When did the people who in OTL became Prime Minister first become plausible or even likely 'next PM' figures?
In political betting there is a longstanding market for 'next PM'. Usually the persons named are those who would be expected - e.g. current senior cabinet ministers, leaders of the opposition - though often there are also various long-shots and some less plausible David Miliband shaped odds.
Historically some UK Prime Ministers (e.g. Eden, Brown) were almost inevitable heirs-apparent for a long time. A time traveler to respectively 1945 or 1997 could drop their names without eliciting too much of a surprised response. Other PMs (Johnson, Callaghan) might be less inevitable, but would get a similar 'yeah, makes sense' response in either 2009 or 1966.
By contrast John Major probably gets a 'who?' as late as 1989 - and may well have done even as he traveled to meet Brenda. Given his rapid ascent to date, Rishi Sunak might be the future AH equivalent of this - depending on what PODs get uncovered for 2020.
Incumbent Leaders of the Opposition are by the nature of their job somewhat priced in as plausible next PMs - assuming the Government of the day is on the way out. Thatcher, Blair, Cameron all got to be odds-on favourite for next PM at some point in their tenure, and most LotO get to be at least plausible future PMs at some point in their tenure, even if this plausibility falls away with hindsight. Others like Wilson, Heath or Attlee looked less likely to make the jump from opposition to government before it actually happened.
But what about the dark horses, or those in between? What about the plausible 'next PMs' left waiting at the church, or longer than might have seemed inevitable at some earlier point in OTL?
What historical figures were seriously seen as likely/inevitable next PM for a while, but never had this come to pass?
For OTL PMs - what are plausible latest 'point of no return' PODs that might avert their rise in a timeline as close to OTL as possible?
I have some thoughts to bounce around, but I wanted to open this up for discussion first.
When did the people who in OTL became Prime Minister first become plausible or even likely 'next PM' figures?
In political betting there is a longstanding market for 'next PM'. Usually the persons named are those who would be expected - e.g. current senior cabinet ministers, leaders of the opposition - though often there are also various long-shots and some less plausible David Miliband shaped odds.
Historically some UK Prime Ministers (e.g. Eden, Brown) were almost inevitable heirs-apparent for a long time. A time traveler to respectively 1945 or 1997 could drop their names without eliciting too much of a surprised response. Other PMs (Johnson, Callaghan) might be less inevitable, but would get a similar 'yeah, makes sense' response in either 2009 or 1966.
By contrast John Major probably gets a 'who?' as late as 1989 - and may well have done even as he traveled to meet Brenda. Given his rapid ascent to date, Rishi Sunak might be the future AH equivalent of this - depending on what PODs get uncovered for 2020.
Incumbent Leaders of the Opposition are by the nature of their job somewhat priced in as plausible next PMs - assuming the Government of the day is on the way out. Thatcher, Blair, Cameron all got to be odds-on favourite for next PM at some point in their tenure, and most LotO get to be at least plausible future PMs at some point in their tenure, even if this plausibility falls away with hindsight. Others like Wilson, Heath or Attlee looked less likely to make the jump from opposition to government before it actually happened.
But what about the dark horses, or those in between? What about the plausible 'next PMs' left waiting at the church, or longer than might have seemed inevitable at some earlier point in OTL?
What historical figures were seriously seen as likely/inevitable next PM for a while, but never had this come to pass?
For OTL PMs - what are plausible latest 'point of no return' PODs that might avert their rise in a timeline as close to OTL as possible?
I have some thoughts to bounce around, but I wanted to open this up for discussion first.