Three Term US Presidents other than FDR

[RyanF]

Considering Wilson wanted the threepeat even when his legacy was actively collapsing around him, if he somehow continues to Keep Us Out Of War and is both more healthy / able to point at 1920 Europe being a bloodbath, I think he’s got a very real chance.

I think he's got a far better chance in the context of no US entry into the war, and normalcy will never enter the lexicon.

What about Madison and Monroe? Both left office fairly popular (Monroe ran unopposed in 1820). The big obstacle is that they didn't want to break the Washington precedent, but is there any chance that they could have decided to go for it?

There seems to have been a running trend for all the early full two-termers that they left office in a much poorer personal financial state when they left. It's possible that the Washington precedent just became a convenient excuse to leave whilst saving face that you just need to get your affairs in order.

 

[Catalunya]

To digress from your main point to go onto Bill, at the time he indicated that had it not been for the 22nd, he would have run; on one hand, I do think there is a genuine part of him that does think he should have run if he could have, he was only 54, he was previously a three-term Governor, and his approvals was regularly running at a 40-50pp approval margin. On the other, the interview came after Gore lost, so of course a two-time winner like Clinton would have thought he could have beaten Bush if Gore nearly could have, and there has been some debate over if Clinton's polling could have survived him actually having to campaign on a record which included Lewinsky and if it was just buoyed by him being an affable lame duck incumbent, but then again, if voters could have overlooked Clinton's issues in '96 because the economy was good, they might have done the same for '00 (the early-00s recession didn't begin in earnest until just after Clinton gave that Rolling Stones interview about wanting to run again in '00).

Didn’t Bill have some serious health issues around that time?

Doubt Obama really wanted it, but I think the end result would be Trump in 2020 honestly.

Wasn’t Obama still the most popular figure in the party at the time? I’m sure there’d be some people who’d complain about the precedent, but I’m pretty sure he could make a Lula like comeback.

 

[monroe]

Didn’t Bill have some serious health issues around that time?

Clinton had ~health problems in the sense that he was an American with a bad diet getting his body wrecked by the stress of Executive Office, but his last physical as President came out saying he was healthy and his unstable angina didn't manifest until ~2004

 

[TheKennedyMachine]

If it wasn’t for Watergate AND the 22nd amendment, I’m fairly certain Nixon would’ve ran for a third term.

It would be interesting to think what a third-term Obama presidency would look like. There was some arguments being made around then that Obama was shifting back to the left around that time.

 

[obmibyag]

michelle probably wouldve divorced him honestly

 

[Callan]

I think Bill Clinton could’ve won a third term but it would’ve killed him, or at least significantly shortened his life.

Doubt Obama really wanted it, but I think the end result would be Trump in 2020 honestly.

Hot take: the Obama third term would be him beating President Trump in 2020.

 

[monroe]

If it wasn’t for Watergate AND the 22nd amendment, I’m fairly certain Nixon would’ve ran for a third term.

It would be interesting to think what a third-term Obama presidency would look like. There was some arguments being made around then that Obama was shifting back to the left around that time.

[alan moore wants to know your location]

Interestingly, like Clinton (and Reagan, who expressed opposition to the 22nd), another one who would have had some serious, major health issues flare up in that hypothetical third term

 

[Makemakean]

I think Bill Clinton could’ve won a third term but it would’ve killed him, or at least significantly shortened his life.

Hot take: the Obama third term would be him beating President Trump in 2020.

I've heard that too, which is why I continue to be a baffled by the fact that the Gore campaign more or less from Day 1 tried to establish themselves as being independent of Bill Clinton, rather than frame themselves as a natural extension of the Clinton years, the way that George H. W. Bush had framed his campaign in 1988 as a natural extension of the Reagan years. My understanding is that the Gore team seemed to have thought that Bill Clinton was toxic after Whitewater, Lewinsky, and the Impeachment, and so something you should stay away from, while in actually, Bill Clinton enjoyed remarkable levels of popularity and job approval ratings for a two-termer at the end of his second term, even higher (!) than Reagan had experienced in 1988.

No doubt someone who has read about that campaign can explain to me how they managed to do such a colossal miscalculation.

 

[Meadow]

I've heard that too, which is why I continue to be a baffled by the fact that the Gore campaign more or less from Day 1 tried to establish themselves as being independent of Bill Clinton, rather than frame themselves as a natural extension of the Clinton years, the way that George H. W. Bush had framed his campaign in 1988 as a natural extension of the Reagan years. My understanding is that the Gore team seemed to have thought that Bill Clinton was toxic after Whitewater, Lewinsky, and the Impeachment, and so something you should stay away from, while in actually, Bill Clinton enjoyed remarkable levels of popularity and job approval ratings for a two-termer at the end of his second term, even higher (!) than Reagan had experienced in 1988.

No doubt someone who has read about that campaign can explain to me how they managed to do such a colossal miscalculation.

Wasn't it also personal dislike of Team Clinton by Team Gore? Al and Bill were not Joe and Barry.

 

[Makemakean]

Wasn't it also personal dislike of Team Clinton by Team Gore? Al and Bill were not Joe and Barry.

Well, that would explain stuff.

 

[monroe]

I've heard that too, which is why I continue to be a baffled by the fact that the Gore campaign more or less from Day 1 tried to establish themselves as being independent of Bill Clinton, rather than frame themselves as a natural extension of the Clinton years, the way that George H. W. Bush had framed his campaign in 1988 as a natural extension of the Reagan years. My understanding is that the Gore team seemed to have thought that Bill Clinton was toxic after Whitewater, Lewinsky, and the Impeachment, and so something you should stay away from, while in actually, Bill Clinton enjoyed remarkable levels of popularity and job approval ratings for a two-termer at the end of his second term, even higher (!) than Reagan had experienced in 1988.

No doubt someone who has read about that campaign can explain to me how they managed to do such a colossal miscalculation.

At the time, it was reported that Gore rebuffed Clinton despite being a buddy duo in '92 and '96 because he, as per Gore campaign voices, felt betrayed by Clinton lying to him and the American people, felt compromised by Clinton's behaviour and the recklessness of his behaviour, was appalled that Clinton screwed an intern despite being a married man, and was especially appalled because Lewinsky was the same age as his daughter Karenna. Gore was very much a family man influenced by the women in his life, and he saw what Bill had done as so wrong because it betrayed everything Gore stood for that he was willing to gamble his Presidential campaign to run without Bill- and the thing is that, lest we forget, Gore on the day closed the fluctuating polling gap between him and Bush to overtake him, and would have won if not for the supreme court.

 

[Makemakean]

Ronald Reagan runs in 1988 and then resigns halfway through after his diagnosis, perhaps. Or Grant 1876.

That said, TR was probably the only President who was 1) eligible, 2) popular enough to seek it and 2) healthy enough to do so. If he lived I could see him easily getting elected in 1920.

I'm a bit curious regarding exactly when we reach the point where Presidents really started to take health warnings seriously as in "you shouldn't be running for re-election" seriously.

Certainly Wilson didn't think that a stroke would be a problem when lobbying behind the scenes for a third term in 1920. FDR's physicians described his condition in 1944 as "appalling" and said he was close to everything between a stroke and a heart attack, but that didn't stop him from running for a fourth term the same year. Despite a heart attack in 1955, Ike still ran for a second term in 1956, Kennedy could barely remain standing for longer periods of time without a veritable cocktail of drugs, and LBJ had had a heart attack himself in 1955.

Of course, in France, Mitterrand became aware that he was suffering from cancer the very year he assumed the Presidency in 1981, and yet he still felt that should run for a second term in 1988.

No doubt there is a large degree of phasing in and phasing out going on here, but I'm sort of curious where the tipping point is.

 

[Yokai Man]

At the time, it was reported that Gore rebuffed Clinton despite being a buddy duo in '92 and '96 because he, as per Gore campaign voices, felt betrayed by Clinton lying to him and the American people, felt compromised by Clinton's behaviour and the recklessness of his behaviour, was appalled that Clinton screwed an intern despite being a married man, and was especially appalled because Lewinsky was the same age as his daughter Karenna. Gore was very much a family man influenced by the women in his life, and he saw what Bill had done as so wrong because it betrayed everything Gore stood for that he was willing to gamble his Presidential campaign to run without Bill- and the thing is that, lest we forget, Gore on the day closed the fluctuating polling gap between him and Bush to overtake him, and would have won if not for the supreme court.

Did Gore ever consider telling Slick Willie to resign or did he just kept it to himself?

 

[Makemakean]

Did Gore ever consider telling Slick Willie to resign or did he just kept it to himself?

If he did, then he has never stated so publicly.

 

[Callan]

Should be said that while Bill Clinton remained personally popular he had high personal negatives at the turn of the century - especially among women. A hypothetical third term would've been a close-run thing for Clinton and I don't think clinging hard to the outgoing incumbent like Bush did with Reagan would've been a guaranteed recipe for success for Gore.

 

[TheKennedyMachine]

Would a third term Clinton be able to prevent 9/11?

 

[Elektronaut]

I've heard that too, which is why I continue to be a baffled by the fact that the Gore campaign more or less from Day 1 tried to establish themselves as being independent of Bill Clinton, rather than frame themselves as a natural extension of the Clinton years

Because their internal polling said Clinton taking a more active role in the campaign would be a vote-loser, something incidentally which the internal polling of the Bush campaign also showed.

Clinton's job approval ratings were very good in the last two years, but his ratings as a human being were, well, not good.

You can of course argue that polls aren't all the story, particularly on narrow single issues, but Clinton sub-contracting out a denial of rape to his lawyer is certainly part of the story.

 

[Japhy]

Would a third term Clinton be able to prevent 9/11?

Its not as though he took national security particularly serious before hand.

43* is a bit of a hack piece but it does note how the Clinton administration National Security establishment more or less viewed removing Bin Laden as the solution to the problem of Al Qaeda. And that by the USS Cole Bombing killing him (something Clinton had wrung his hands about before) probably doesn't actually stop the attacks. Maybe Bubba takes the shot, if one comes up in a third term. But AQ will keep moving without the big man.

 

[Japhy]

Anyway to the initial question, Coolidge 1928 is a viable option. There was a lot of pressure in the party, the press and in his inner circle at the time to tread his taking over at Harding's death as a mulligan. It would really just take Hoover pressing the wrong buttons once or twice to antagonize Silent Cal enough to get him to take it.

 

[RyanF]

Anyway to the initial question, Coolidge 1928 is a viable option. There was a lot of pressure in the party, the press and in his inner circle at the time to tread his taking over at Harding's death as a mulligan. It would really just take Hoover pressing the wrong buttons once or twice to antagonize Silent Cal enough to get him to take it.

Didn't Hoover check with Coolidge over the whole "I do not choose to run" statement if he really wasn't going to seek another term before launching his own bid?