Qing Conquest of Japan

[SenatorChickpea]

On the Sengoku- I wonder if there's an in here with that ridiculous Spanish plan to conquer all of China for His Most Catholic Majesty.

That obviously wasn't going to go anywhere, but it could attract attention to other places on the Chinese periphery where Europeans are getting involved- so combine it with more successful Christian daimyo in Japan, and that's another reason for the Chinese to directly exert their influence in the islands.

And once they're there, as Makemakean says, they're there.

 

[Venocara]

Under the conditions currently put forward, you are, I'm afraid, looking at an Emperor Napoleon of Japan. ナポレオン天皇.

That is why I think that if you want to have China take Japan, it's going to have to be a long process, and the process pretty much necessarily has to be initiated with the Japanese being the ones inviting China into Japan to take an active role in the islands' politics. Your best opportunity is during the Sengoku era, though you're going to need to have significant changes in both China and Japan to facilitate this.

If I had asked how we could have the Qing conquer New Zealand or something I would understand why you would call it virtually impossible or compare it to an "Emperor Napoleon of Japan". But the two really aren't comparable. We live in a timeline where the Japanese went from a minnow operating a policy of extreme isolation to wanting to conquer everything east of the 70th meridian in the length of a lifetime, and Germany went from not existing to trying to conquer everything west of the 70th meridian in even less time; and both of them actually tried to do it. It really can't be that hard to imagine a scenario in which the Qing would want and have the capacity to take over Japan, and I don't think it would take a lifetime either.

Having said that, I have had an idea (which might require the Qing to have annexed Korea first, but I still think there's something there). Move OTL's events from the Opium War to the opening of Japan to the Sino-Japanese War as early as possible in the 19th century. Have the French make that alliance with the Japanese and perhaps have the French use Japan as a springboard for an invasion (maybe in Manchuria, maybe somewhere else), leading to a severe Franco-Japanese victory which increases French presence in East Asia and gets the British worried. Have the British ally with the Qing (and help fund the expansion of their navy), and allow for the rise of the same sort of mentality which made the Japanese think that they were the rightful guardians of East Asia in OTL. There may need to be another war in the interim, but I'm sure that if the French are left lurking in Japan long enough it wouldn't be too hard to convince members of the Qing Court that the only way to remove this major threat is to remove Japan from the map entirely.

Alternatively, is there a way to replace Russia with China in a LTTW-like conquest of Japan?

 

[SenatorChickpea]

Having said that, I have had an idea (which might require the Qing to have annexed Korea first, but I still think there's something there). Move OTL's events from the Opium War to the opening of Japan to the Sino-Japanese War as early as possible in the 19th century. Have the French make that alliance with the Japanese and perhaps have the French use Japan as a springboard for an invasion (maybe in Manchuria, maybe somewhere else), leading to a severe Franco-Japanese victory which increases French presence in East Asia and gets the British worried. Have the British ally with the Qing (and help fund the expansion of their navy), and allow for the rise of the same sort of mentality which made the Japanese think that they were the rightful guardians of East Asia in OTL. There may need to be another war in the interim, but I'm sure that if the French are left lurking in Japan long enough it wouldn't be too hard to convince members of the Qing Court that the only way to remove this major threat is to remove Japan from the map entirely.

The problem here is that a severe Franco-Japanese victory as you describe it is far more likely to break the Qing than anything else, particularly if the theatre of war moves into Manchuria- in the 1880s that would be an untold disaster, requiring the Chinese forces to underperform dramatically compared to both the Franco-Sino War and the Sino-Japanese War. That will end with reparations, concessions, foreign interference a la the Triple Intervention- perhaps it doesn't take you to 1911 early, but it certainly gets you nowhere close to a strong Qing.

Moreover, the British were interested in backing the Qing- until their defeat in 1895 convinced them that the Japanese were a better bet. The same calculus will apply here. Nor can the French 'lurk' in Japan- leaving aside the fact that the Japanese wouldn't grant them basing or transit rights, at that point they're directly interfering with Russian interests in the east. For obvious reasons, no French government at the time wants to do that, since there's nothing to gain there that remotely compares to the prize of good relations with the Tsar.

Conversely, a China that defeats a Franco-Japanese alliance has almost certainly secured northern Vietnam and certainly Korea- and therefore no longer has to worry about a serious threat from either power.

You see where I'm going with this- once again, we return to the problem that any scenario that gets the Chinese to pay attention to the Japanese either results in a Japan strong enough to crush any invasion, or a China strong enough that it doesn't need (or want) to invade.

 

[Makemakean]

If I had asked how we could have the Qing conquer New Zealand or something I would understand why you would call it virtually impossible or compare it to an "Emperor Napoleon of Japan". But the two really aren't comparable. We live in a timeline where the Japanese went from a minnow operating a policy of extreme isolation to wanting to conquer everything east of the 70th meridian in the length of a lifetime, and Germany went from not existing to trying to conquer everything west of the 70th meridian in even less time; and both of them actually tried to do it. It really can't be that hard to imagine a scenario in which the Qing would want and have the capacity to take over Japan, and I don't think it would take a lifetime either.

Yeah, but the thing is, Germany and Japan were in rather significantly different positions in 1860 than China was. The timespan from the late 1860s to the late 1930s is still some 70 years, and both Germany and Japan ended up failing in their enterprises rather colossally.

Having said that, I have had an idea (which might require the Qing to have annexed Korea first, but I still think there's something there). Move OTL's events from the Opium War to the opening of Japan to the Sino-Japanese War as early as possible in the 19th century.

Again, the reason for the Opening of Japan in the first place was due to increased foreign activity in the general area as a direct consequence of the Chinese defeats in the Opium Wars. The Sino-Japanese war happened because Japan sensed an opportunity due to China already being plagued by its own deep, structural internal problems and already having become a smörgåsbord for western imperialist powers.

Have the French make that alliance with the Japanese and perhaps have the French use Japan as a springboard for an invasion (maybe in Manchuria, maybe somewhere else), leading to a severe Franco-Japanese victory which increases French presence in East Asia and gets the British worried.

A more severe defeat at the hands of the Japanese and the French is, as @SenatorChickpea notes, more likely to produce the complete fall of the Qing than anything else: severe concessions, demands for reparations, license for foreign interference, and a protracted Chinese Civil War, likely to be even more of a quagmire than the Taiping Rebellion ended up being. Not the right growing grounds for the kind of modern, advanced country capable of launching an invasion and wholesale annexation of the Japanese archipelago.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

It's important to stress that for most of Chinese history, Japan simply wasn't on the radar of the emperors- and if it was, it was hard to get to, and if you could get to it, you had no reason to.

The conditions that led to Japan being able to take on China only existed between the 1890s and the mid twentieth century, and arguably not continuously throughout that time.

If China can keep Japan (or any other foreign power) out of Korea and can exercise naval supremacy in its coastal waters... it's won. It's really hard to think of any reason that the Chinese would have to invade once those goals have been accomplished.

 

[Geordie]

Admittedly, having very little knowledge of China, I'm getting the understanding that:

• Any China with the power to do this wouldn't have to, because Japan would be sufficiently in their orbit to make the operation pointless.
• Any China that sees Japan as a threat that needs to be put down wouldn't have the ability necessary to do said "putting down", as China would have to have problems for Japan to be threatening.

Is that about right?

 

[Makemakean]

Admittedly, having very little knowledge of China, I'm getting the understanding that:

• Any China with the power to do this wouldn't have to, because Japan would be sufficiently in their orbit to make the operation pointless.
• Any China that sees Japan as a threat that needs to be put down wouldn't have the ability necessary to do said "putting down", as China would have to have problems for Japan to be threatening.

Is that about right?

Pretty much. Though one should add:

• Japan does not have the natural resources nor the strategical importance for China to take an interest in the place on its own merits. Hence why China has traditionally looked West and South for expansion: that’s where trade and natural resources lie.

 

[Makemakean]

Alternatively, is there a way to replace Russia with China in a LTTW-like conquest of Japan?

I don’t want to discuss LTTW too much here, but in that work, the Russians first get involved in trade with Japan because, well, they’re very isolated on the Pacific Coast (so isolated in fact that they’re completely unaware of there being a civil war raging home in the West), and they have to trade with someone to survive because East Siberia isn’t particularly hospitable, and they only get a foot in with the Japanese because of a very particular set of circumstances involving the Ainu, and still have to use clandestine measures to get around the embargo on foreign trade. That’s how Russia get involved with Japan in the first place, and why they then decide to take the opportunity to interfere further when that presents itself: it’s about sustaining themselves in the East.

Hence why it’s kind of hard to really exchange Russia for China, since they don’t need trade with Japan.

Essentially, the thing you’ll find is that western powers prior to Meiji only ever took an interest in Japan as part of a springboard to get access to further wealth in the East and China in particular. Obviously, China would have no use of Japan in order to trade with China.

 

[Venocara]

Hence why it’s kind of hard to really exchange Russia for China, since they don’t need trade with Japan.

From what I've read the Chinese used Japanese silver to stabilise their economy. I'm sure there's probably some trigger for conflict in there somewhere.

If China can keep Japan (or any other foreign power) out of Korea and can exercise naval supremacy in its coastal waters... it's won. It's really hard to think of any reason that the Chinese would have to invade once those goals have been accomplished.

You see where I'm going with this- once again, we return to the problem that any scenario that gets the Chinese to pay attention to the Japanese either results in a Japan strong enough to crush any invasion, or a China strong enough that it doesn't need (or want) to invade.

The Americans probably could have defeated the Japanese by working with the Soviets and the KMT-CPC to remove them from China and Korea alongside bombing them to oblivion with incendaries and nuclear weapons. And yet they instead planned to launch the largest amphibious invasion in history. Obviously the Americans did not want to annex the Japanese but their goal could easily be that of the Qing: that of unconditional surrender.

Imagine a world in which the Opium Wars happened in 1834 and the mid-1840s, and as a result the Taiping Rebellion has been butterflied. A world where the Japanese have been forced open in 1837 after an alternate Morrison Incident. A world in which they suffer decades of humiliation (including an inconclusive skirmish with the Japanese, perhaps as a result of an earlier Ganghwa Island incident) culminating in a disastrous defeat at the hands of the French and Japanese; bad enough that the Qing know that serious reform is needed, perhaps before 1870. Because of that first small skirmish, it would be easier for the French to force the Japanese into a junior role in any alliance. If it all happens before the Franco-Prussian War, the French wouldn't feel the need to appease the Russians, and in any case, if the Germans and Russians were able to solidfy an alliance this point would be moot. At this point, to counter French influence in the East the British or even the Germans could help stabilise the Qing and grow their naval capacity. A third war could be fought between the Qing (perhaps with small support from Europeans) and the Franco-Japanese, this time with a limited Qing victory akin to that of the Grand Alliance in the Nine Years War or the Soviets in the Winter War; enough to weaken the Japanese but not enough to remove them as a threat entirely. As a result of the failure to put the Japanese down after three attempts and with foreign intervention an ever present danger, a quasi-fascist/revanchist movement arises in the Qing Court that decrees that the only way to remove the Japanese as a threat is to extinguish the state. With a China dedicated to this aim its natural advantages would see it pull out an unassailable lead in naval and war-making capacity, and after a decade or two it would both be in the position and have the desire to annex Japan.

 

[Roger II]

From what I've read the Chinese used Japanese silver to stabilise their economy. I'm sure there's probably some trigger for conflict in there somewhere.





The Americans probably could have defeated the Japanese by working with the Soviets and the KMT-CPC to remove them from China and Korea alongside bombing them to oblivion with incendaries and nuclear weapons. And yet they instead planned to launch the largest amphibious invasion in history. Obviously the Americans did not want to annex the Japanese but their goal could easily be that of the Qing: that of unconditional surrender.

Imagine a world in which the Opium Wars happened in 1834 and the mid-1840s, and as a result the Taiping Rebellion has been butterflied. A world where the Japanese have been forced open in 1837 after an alternate Morrison Incident. A world in which they suffer decades of humiliation (including an inconclusive skirmish with the Japanese, perhaps as a result of an earlier Ganghwa Island incident) culminating in a disastrous defeat at the hands of the French and Japanese; bad enough that the Qing know that serious reform is needed, perhaps before 1870. Because of that first small skirmish, it would be easier for the French to force the Japanese into a junior role in any alliance. If it all happens before the Franco-Prussian War, the French wouldn't feel the need to appease the Russians, and in any case, if the Germans and Russians were able to solidfy an alliance this point would be moot. At this point, to counter French influence in the East the British or even the Germans could help stabilise the Qing and grow their naval capacity. A third war could be fought between the Qing (perhaps with small support from Europeans) and the Franco-Japanese, this time with a limited Qing victory akin to that of the Grand Alliance in the Nine Years War or the Soviets in the Winter War; enough to weaken the Japanese but not enough to remove them as a threat entirely. As a result of the failure to put the Japanese down after three attempts and with foreign intervention an ever present danger, a quasi-fascist/revanchist movement arises in the Qing Court that decrees that the only way to remove the Japanese as a threat is to extinguish the state. With a China dedicated to this aim its natural advantages would see it pull out an unassailable lead in naval and war-making capacity, and after a decade or two it would both be in the position and have the desire to annex Japan.

This seems like an awful lot of clocks striking midnight as @Makemakean put it

 

[Venocara]

This seems like an awful lot of clocks striking midnight as @Makemakean put it

I don't agree, it honestly took me about five minutes to plot out the whole scenario, and the POD is well within the 19th century. And if it's workable (which I believe it is), then that's the most important thing.