2007-2010: Gordon Brown (Labour)
2010-2010: David Miliband (Labour)
2010-2014: David Cameron (Conservative)
2010 (Coalition with Liberal Democrats) def. David Miliband (Labour), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat), Alex Salmond (SNP)
2011 Alternative Vote referendum, 71% NO
2014 Scottish independence referendum, 51% YES
2014-2016: Theresa May (Conservative)
2016-2023: Ed Balls (Labour)
2016 (Majority) def. Theresa May (Conservative), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat), Nigel Farage (UKIP)
2021 (Majority) def. Liam Fox (Conservative), Norman Lamb (Liberal Democrat)
Gordon Brown is successfully brought down in January 2010 and David Miliband succeeds him to lead Labour into the 'battle of the two Davids'. Labour is left with its worst result since 1983 as the SNP cuts deep into the Central Belt. Miliband resigns both as Labour leader and MP for South Shields upon David Cameron and Nick Clegg's announcement of a coalition government and leaves his co-conspirator Harriet Harman to pick up the pieces. In the circumstances his brother decides against standing for the leadership: the ensuing contest is between Ed Balls, Chancellor Liam Byrne, Health Secretary Andy Burnham, and John McDonnell. Balls wins MPs and MEPs narrowly, party members comfortably, and affiliates by a landslide. McDonnell, meanwhile, manages a respectable result for himself (less so for Liam Byrne) and makes it to the second round.
Balls' leadership of the party is more focused than Miliband's IOTL. Between him being leader and a somewhat worse recovery than OTL he maintains his initial wholehearted opposition to "the Coalition's austerity and cuts"; of those in the Labour Party who believe that its "very credibility as a party depends on hitching itself to the consensus view", he is not one of them, and makes the case for a social-democratic alternative to the Coalition time and time again instead of wasting time with 'One Nation Labour' nonsense. And then Scotland votes for independence. Burnham challenges him for the leadership, a rematch of 2010, but ultimately Balls emerges with a significantly better result than 2010: 70% of the total vote. The Shadow Home Secretary is exiled to the backbenches, and for a time the briefing quietens down.
As for the Coalition, David Cameron initially considers staying on as prime minister despite the vote to end the union; in the early hours of the morning, however, it is made clear that that is not an option, and he resigns shortly after much of the country wakes to the news. Theresa May easily defeats George Osborne in the ensuing leadership election. Cross-party agreement sees the 2015 election postponed by a year until Scottish independence has been achieved.
The result of the delayed general election is almost inevitable. Even before Theresa May's shambolic campaign, the Conservatives are the party that presided over the end of the union. Though they make some gains from the Liberal Democrats, the collapse is nowhere near that seen IOTL; there is no SNP to frighten many of their voters into defecting. It is still, however, a terrible result, and Norman Lamb is elected leader in the aftermath. Many warn of economic ruin as Labour takes power with a solid majority, but what do they know? The change of direction soon shows results: investment across the country and in infrastructure; funding is restored to councils; the Lyons report is implemented in full; economic growth picks up its pace; and unemployment is the lowest it has been in decades. Tuition fees are abolished and replaced with a graduate tax. And then, of course, the pandemic.
Farage's attempt to compromise on opposition to lockdown backfires. The hardcore opponents split off anyway and his attempts to appease them only project an image of weakness and scare UKIP's predominantly elderly base, while Liam Fox sees many more traditionally right-wing Conservatives return home. Douglas Carswell is the only UKIP MP left standing, and narrowly at that; Farage's loss in South Thanet is not even close, and the presence of a Freedom Party candidate makes no difference as to the result. Even Boston and Skegness falls to Labour, such is the extent of their landslide. The party is left with a mere 6% of the vote. The Liberal Democrats, conversely, after polls earlier in the parliament that had them falling below twenty seats and behind UKIP, emerge with a gain of ten seats thanks to well-focused targeting and the Conservatives.
The challenges ahead are considerable, between the war in Korea and the pandemic's effects on the economy, but with a year and a half to go until the election Labour is polling level with the Conservatives, Boris Johnson's (the modernisers having retaken control of the party in the aftermath of Fox's defeat) attempts to blame the government falling flat. It is almost universally agreed, hacks aside, that these crises are after all global—and that the government's response to them has been perfectly competent.
2010-2010: David Miliband (Labour)
2010-2014: David Cameron (Conservative)
2010 (Coalition with Liberal Democrats) def. David Miliband (Labour), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat), Alex Salmond (SNP)
2011 Alternative Vote referendum, 71% NO
2014 Scottish independence referendum, 51% YES
2014-2016: Theresa May (Conservative)
2016-2023: Ed Balls (Labour)
2016 (Majority) def. Theresa May (Conservative), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat), Nigel Farage (UKIP)
2021 (Majority) def. Liam Fox (Conservative), Norman Lamb (Liberal Democrat)
Gordon Brown is successfully brought down in January 2010 and David Miliband succeeds him to lead Labour into the 'battle of the two Davids'. Labour is left with its worst result since 1983 as the SNP cuts deep into the Central Belt. Miliband resigns both as Labour leader and MP for South Shields upon David Cameron and Nick Clegg's announcement of a coalition government and leaves his co-conspirator Harriet Harman to pick up the pieces. In the circumstances his brother decides against standing for the leadership: the ensuing contest is between Ed Balls, Chancellor Liam Byrne, Health Secretary Andy Burnham, and John McDonnell. Balls wins MPs and MEPs narrowly, party members comfortably, and affiliates by a landslide. McDonnell, meanwhile, manages a respectable result for himself (less so for Liam Byrne) and makes it to the second round.
Balls' leadership of the party is more focused than Miliband's IOTL. Between him being leader and a somewhat worse recovery than OTL he maintains his initial wholehearted opposition to "the Coalition's austerity and cuts"; of those in the Labour Party who believe that its "very credibility as a party depends on hitching itself to the consensus view", he is not one of them, and makes the case for a social-democratic alternative to the Coalition time and time again instead of wasting time with 'One Nation Labour' nonsense. And then Scotland votes for independence. Burnham challenges him for the leadership, a rematch of 2010, but ultimately Balls emerges with a significantly better result than 2010: 70% of the total vote. The Shadow Home Secretary is exiled to the backbenches, and for a time the briefing quietens down.
As for the Coalition, David Cameron initially considers staying on as prime minister despite the vote to end the union; in the early hours of the morning, however, it is made clear that that is not an option, and he resigns shortly after much of the country wakes to the news. Theresa May easily defeats George Osborne in the ensuing leadership election. Cross-party agreement sees the 2015 election postponed by a year until Scottish independence has been achieved.
The result of the delayed general election is almost inevitable. Even before Theresa May's shambolic campaign, the Conservatives are the party that presided over the end of the union. Though they make some gains from the Liberal Democrats, the collapse is nowhere near that seen IOTL; there is no SNP to frighten many of their voters into defecting. It is still, however, a terrible result, and Norman Lamb is elected leader in the aftermath. Many warn of economic ruin as Labour takes power with a solid majority, but what do they know? The change of direction soon shows results: investment across the country and in infrastructure; funding is restored to councils; the Lyons report is implemented in full; economic growth picks up its pace; and unemployment is the lowest it has been in decades. Tuition fees are abolished and replaced with a graduate tax. And then, of course, the pandemic.
Farage's attempt to compromise on opposition to lockdown backfires. The hardcore opponents split off anyway and his attempts to appease them only project an image of weakness and scare UKIP's predominantly elderly base, while Liam Fox sees many more traditionally right-wing Conservatives return home. Douglas Carswell is the only UKIP MP left standing, and narrowly at that; Farage's loss in South Thanet is not even close, and the presence of a Freedom Party candidate makes no difference as to the result. Even Boston and Skegness falls to Labour, such is the extent of their landslide. The party is left with a mere 6% of the vote. The Liberal Democrats, conversely, after polls earlier in the parliament that had them falling below twenty seats and behind UKIP, emerge with a gain of ten seats thanks to well-focused targeting and the Conservatives.
The challenges ahead are considerable, between the war in Korea and the pandemic's effects on the economy, but with a year and a half to go until the election Labour is polling level with the Conservatives, Boris Johnson's (the modernisers having retaken control of the party in the aftermath of Fox's defeat) attempts to blame the government falling flat. It is almost universally agreed, hacks aside, that these crises are after all global—and that the government's response to them has been perfectly competent.
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