• Hi Guest!

    The costs of running this forum are covered by Sea Lion Press. If you'd like to help support the company and the forum, visit patreon.com/sealionpress

Erin's Erfurt III Experience

1966 & 1970 North Rhine-Westphalia state elections & electoral boundaries (OTL)
EfoUn44.png


So as part of my 1960s NRW administrative binge I found the legislation laying out the constituencies used in the 1966 and 1970 elections. Most of them were simple - districts or collections of municipalities - but the ones where cities were divided were not because (with the sole exception of Bochum) the boundaries were given in terms of roads, railways, rivers etc. The entire process was extremely tedious and time-consuming. But the result was worth it.

3aousFZ.png
CPTxvf4.png
 
Last edited:
A little bonus: Germany as a general rule doesn't have the most rigorous regulations when it comes to constituency population on a state or federal level, so there is often quite a large disparity between them. In fact, in North Rhine-Westphalia, there were no regulations at all regarding population until the 2005 election, when the number of constituencies was reduced from 150 to 128 and electoral law specified that constituencies could not vary more than 20% from the average. In 2021 this was tightened to 15%. The map belows displays numbers from the 1966 election.

tBTGC24.png
 
2 ADC Nexus Force general election
So I ended up making maps for every NRW state election, but I'm not sure exactly how I'm gonna post them and stuff, so for now have this:

BcCVi1s.png


The second general election of the Nexus Force leadership took place on the second anniversary of the destruction of Crux. The chief executive of the Force was elected via instant-runoff voting, while the 60-member Administrative Council was elected via party-list proportional representation.

Assembly faction leader and incumbent chief executive Dr. Albert Overbuild was re-elected, achieving a strong victory over Duke Exeter, Sentinel leader and military commander of the Nexus Force. The unexpected cross-endorsement of respected Sentinel scout Epsilon Starcracker, who ran as Overbuild's running mate, was considered a key factor in his re-election. Overbuild had earned a reputation as a reliable administrator during his first term as executive and, alongside Starcracker, his ticket was able to reach beyond Assembly's traditional base, appealing to swing voters and non-faction members. By contrast, Exeter ran alongside fellow Sentinel Sergeant Brannan Landers, a safe pick which shored up the party's military base but brought little to the ticket. Hael Storm and Sky Lane of the Venture League placed third on 12%, managing to fend off the popular Overbuild and retain most of the party's coalition. Vanda Darkflame came fourth with 8.5%, running with researcher Wisp Lee; their campaign was characterised as obtuse and radical, and this combined with enduring controversy around Lee's role in the Avant Gardens Maelstrom outbreak alienated most voters beyond dedicated Paradox adherents. Overbuild was able to win the lion's share of preferences from third party voters by raising concerns about placing the power of both chief executive and military command in the hands of one individual, an angle which Exeter failed to adequately counter.

Conversely, in the legislative election, Sentinel put on a strong performance and overtook Assembly to become the largest party with 20 seats. Assembly and the Builders' League both suffered losses, while the other two major factions remained stable. The swings were attributed mostly to demographic changes that had taken place since the opening of Nexus Tower; an influx of soldiers to the front on Crux Prime bolstered Sentinel, while the completion of the Tower prompted many engineers and labourers to emigrate. Migration of displaced minifigures to the Tower from frontier worlds and Nimbus Station led to the rise of the Displaced List, which debuted at 5 seats.
 
2022 United Left national congress
FKG6r6s.png


A couple years ago I made a graphic examining the National Congress of the United Left, the party's major convention, and its most recent election. At that time, the 2018 congress was contested by most of the party's factions and had elected dark horse Caren Lay from the libertarian left group as its lead candidate; the party went on to achieve a major victory in the general election and form government. In 2022, with the next election on the horizon, the party majority chose to rally around Lay and avoided a heated contest at the National Congress. Even those refusing to join the unity list largely agreed to support her. After Ulla Jelpke's retirement, the Communists put forward firebrand Trotskyist Lucy Redler as their nominee. Ultimately, it was no contest at all: Lay won an overwhelming victory, putting the party in a strong and unified position ahead of the parliamentary elections.
 
2022 Australian political crisis
FT1HUmW.png


The 2022 Australian political crisis began on 17 April 2022 when reports surfaced that, during 2020-21, Prime Minister Scott Morrison had secretly sworn himself in to administer the portfolios of several of his ministers, most of whom were not informed. Morrison confirmed the allegations the same day and refused calls to resign or apologise, insisting his actions were justified. A vicious internal struggle ensued in the Liberal Party and wider Coalition over Morrison's future, as the news broke just four weeks prior to the 2022 federal election. After proposed spill motions received an unexpected amount of caucus support in late April, the crisis escalated with further ministerial resignations. Notably, Morrison ally and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and key conservative factional leader Peter Dutton both resigned ahead of a third spill on 9 May. The motion unexpectedly failed, falling one vote short of the two-thirds threshold required to remove a sitting leader who had won a federal election, a requirement implemented after Morrison assumed leadership in 2018. Another spill two days came four votes short, leading to the effective end of attempts to remove him. The lack of resolution caused the National Party, the Liberals' coalition partner, to withdraw from cabinet pending the result of the election. The deeply scarred and divided Liberal Party effectively conducted no campaigning during the final few weeks of the election. The opposition Labor Party won a landslide victory, with the government losing seats to both Labor and to numerous independents as well as Greens candidates. The Coalition's 39 seats, just over a quarter of the seats in parliament, represented the lowest share of seats won by the conservative side of politics in Australian history.

My entry for this fortnight's Fortnightly Wikibox Challenge with the theme "Scandal".
 
2024 Thuringian state election
Made this a week or two ago and was reminded by the thing in Sonneberg today (AfD won a district administrator election, which is a pretty powerless executive position but an executive position nonetheless): a conceivable result for the next Thuringian election.

yXuyl8U.png


Cm3NGec.png
 
Made this a week or two ago and was reminded by the thing in Sonneberg today (AfD won a district administrator election, which is a pretty powerless executive position but an executive position nonetheless): a conceivable result for the next Thuringian election.

yXuyl8U.png


Cm3NGec.png

Beautiful map. Yikes result.

Those coalition negotiations would be fun.

I think the only non-Afd containing majority that could be assembled would be the utter nightmare of a Linke-CDU-SDP coalition- what would you even call that? Rot-Schwarz-Rot? ZehrGroKo?

A Trinidad and Tobago coalition?
 
1997 Australian Constitutional Convention election
So it's reasonably well-known among nerd circles that Australia held a referendum in 1999 about whether or not to become a republic, and that it was rejected. People probably know a little bit less about the process that led to that referendum. It stretches back several years, originating during the Keating government, and I've been looking at a specific and important chapter: the 1998 Constitutional Convention.

At the time of the 1996 election, the question of the republic was on everyone's lips. Republicanism was Labor policy and a pet project of Prime Minister Paul Keating, who went to the election promising to transition Australia to a republic by the national centenary in 2001. Surveys showed that most supported abolishing the monarchy. The Coalition was divided over the issue, with leader John Howard personally opposed. The party campaigned on a more cautious approach, pledging to convene a Constitutional Convention to discuss possible changes.

The convention took place in February 1998 and was attended by a broad spectrum of figures from Australian society. It comprised 152 members, of whom half were appointed: 40 were drawn from federal, state, and territory parliaments from both sides of politics, and the remaining 36 were various respectedly non-parliamentary figures. The other half were to be elected.

The convention was an interesting exercise in democracy. It was conducted entirely via postal vote, the largest such effort in Australian history to date. The electoral system was closely modeled on Senate elections at the time: single transferable vote using group voting tickets. It was managed by the Australian Electoral Commission, and the government made a somewhat controversial decision in making it non-compulsory. Considering this was an election for a bunch of delegates to an advisory convention which would only sit for less than two weeks, it's perhaps unsurprising that turnout ended up a miserable 47%.

The results and the candidates, however, are quite interesting. The AEC released a report with full lists of candidates, results, and statistics shortly before the convention, and I took the time to transcribe them onto Wikipedia:


The first thing to know is this was unlike any other election in Australian history. These were delegates to a temporary advisory body, and the candidates were largely non-politicians. The largest political parties of the era - Labor, the Liberals, Nationals, and Democrats - did not run, though some members did stand. Instead, the ballot was dominated by various interest groups and enterprising individuals. By far the two largest were the Australian Republican Movement (ARM) and Australians for Constitutional Monarchy (ACM), the chief standardbearers for republicanism and monarchism respectively. Still, between them they garnered only just over half the votes, with the remainder divided between numerous smaller groups and a large number of ungrouped (independent) candidates.

The 76 seats up for grabs were apportioned between the states in a sort of proportional way, based on their representation in Parliament. New South Wales had the most (20), followed by Victoria (16), Queensland (13), WA (9), and SA (8). Tasmania had 6 and the territories two each. The number of seats in the largest states meant the quota was quite low and numerous groups were elected. The power of group voting tickets was also clear to see, with the very smallest group in New South Wales - ETHOS, 0.11% - claiming a seat. In Victoria, Republic4U (0.62%) won a seat. Meanwhile in the territories, the ARM won both of the ACT's seats with a primary vote of 45% to the ACM's 24%. The NT's results were quite bizarre, with the first- and second-placed ARM and ACM both failing to win a seat - instead third-place A Just Republic took the first, followed by ungrouped Michael Kilgariff. The single most remarkable result, in my opinion, is a clear artifact of below-the-line voting. Hazel Hawke, the ex-wife of Bob Hawke, was 12th on the ARM ticket in New South Wales, a more or less unwinnable position. However, she was elected to the 18th seat because of personal preferences, and in doing so leapfrogged five other ARM candidates.

Perhaps even more interesting than the results are the candidates. As I said, the parties pretty much stayed out of this - members could run, but most of the candidates were not politicians, and those who were paid no heed to party lines. On the ARM's NSW ticket we find Malcolm Turnbull, not yet a politician but the face of the republican movement, alongside former Nationals state minister Wendy Machin, former Labor premier Neville Wran, and then-Young Liberal state president Gladys Berejiklian. We also find ACTU president Jennie George, constitutional scholar Helen Irving, author Thomas Keneally, actor Lex Marinos, and artist Patricia Moran. The ACM ticket in Victoria was headed by Democrats founder Don Chipp, followed by Liberal monarchy advocate Sophie Panopoulos (later Mirabella), as well as Labor-turned-independent Melbourne city councillor Wellington Lee and artist Paul Fitzgerald. Indigenous campaigner and first Aboriginal member of federal parliament Neville Bonner was second on the Queensland ACM ticket.

Veteran independent politician Ted Mack ran a two-man ticket in NSW which won almost three quotas. More radical republicans challenged the ARM with their own tickets, including Pat O'Shane's Real Republic and Clem Jones's Queensland list. Florence Bjelke-Petersen, former Senator and wife of the infamous Queensland premier, was elected from second place on a Constitutional Monarchists ticket in Queensland. And naturally, Clive Palmer ran a ticket stacked with his friends and family. Linda Burney, at the time an educator advancing Aboriginal education across the country, headed an Indigenous-focused Reconcilation ticket in NSW, but failed to win seats. Multiculturalism campaigner Jason Yat-Sen Li was elected as an ungrouped candidate. Political scientist Paddy O'Brien, known for criticising corruption in WA Labor during the 80s, split the Elect the President ticket with his own slate and managed to get elected. In South Australia, future premier and rising Labor star Jay Weatherill ran unsuccessfully as an ungrouped candidate. Conservative Presbyterian priest David Mitchell, concerned that republicanism threatened the scriptural basis of Westminister government, was elected for the Monarchist League in Tasmania. In fact, the Presbyterian church ran its own group ticket in Victoria.

This great and bizarre mixture of people was reflected in the convention, and indeed many of the elected delegates had more rigid political convictions than the appointed politicians. Ultimately, the convention endorsed a transition to a republic by a 89 votes to 52, with 11 abstentions. But they were deeply divided on the specifics. Four proposals were considered: two direct-election models and two appointment models. The direct-election models had fervent but minority support from radical republicans, while the appointment models were favoured as less of a departure from the existing system. The "McGarvie model", in which the president would be appointed by a constitutional council on advice of the Prime Minister, was eventually rejected in favour of the "bipartisan appointment model", wherein the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader would jointly propose a president to Parliament, who would approve them by two-thirds vote. This model actually only garnered minority support among delegates, ultimately winning 73 in favour, 55 against thanks to 23 abstentions, mostly from republicans who favoured direct election. According to Malcolm Turnbull, these radical republicans believed the bipartisan appointment would be rejected by the public, giving them a chance to put direct election to referendum.
 
2022 Palatinate state election
HmXN5lh.png


The Palatinate has long been defined by its peculiarities and contradictions. Since the end of the Napoleonic wars it was a province of Bavaria. This religiously mixed, Protestant-majority exclave, influenced by the liberal currents of the Rhine on which it sits, was always a strange match for the Catholic southern state and its rural conservative governments. It's no surprise that they did, in time, secede to form their own federal state. Perhaps it's surprising that it took until the 1990s thanks to Munich's reluctance. Local politics in the Palatinate diverged early in the history of the German republic, defined by a complex politico-religious rift that distinguished it from the rest of Bavaria.

The single largest bloc in Palatine politics was, and remains, the working-class. Mostly Protestant, they give strength to the socialist parties, represented in the 21st century by the Left Alliance. The state as a whole has always had a bourgeois majority, but it was divided - not only between Protestant and Catholic, but within Catholic politics between the liberal, Rhenish Centre and the Bavarian autonomist current originating with the BVP. This latter division allowed the urban Protestant bourgeois to dominate the conservative side of politics in early Palatine politics. However, as the area continued to diverge from Bavaria and the autonomists became more radical, their support dropped off and the Rhenish Centre challenged the Protestants.

It was around this time that the paradigm of modern Palatine politics began to take shape. Recognising the imperative of keeping the left out of power, the Protestant and Catholic bourgeois worked to defuse tensions, entering government together and formulating complex power-sharing agreements. By the late 1970s, the Catholic Centre dramatically voted to "leave the tower", refounding itself as the Open Centre, an officially interdenominational party co-led by the Protestants. This formula worked wonders. The secession in the 1990s erased the last remnants of Bavarian autonomism in the Palatinate and ushered in almost three decades of continuous conservative governance.

Still, not everyone was happy to share equally with the Catholics when the state overall was majority Protestant. Originally an outgrowth of the progressive liberal tradition, the Bürgerliste (Citizens' List) came to represent those in the middle-class who did not buy into the political project of the Open Centre. The prosperity of the state and its riverine setting also gave rise to a small ecologist movement, one of few represented on the state level nationwide. Nonetheless, stable and harmonius government, as well as co-opting into coalitions, suppressed the popularity of these dissidents.

Until hardly a year before the 2022 election, this paradigm still seemed unbreakable to most. But in truth the Open Centre's greatest skill had always been papering over the cracks. Behind closed doors, the party was beset by constant internal tensions, policy conflict, and struggles over the most minor divisions of responsibility. When the old Minister-President announced his retirement, the stage was set for a harsh confrontation over his successor. So high were emotions that they simply could not be hidden any longer - open sectarian attacks were made at the conference and duly reported by the press to a bewildered public. The Catholic factions put forward Matthias Lammert, an unremarkable and uncontroversial candidate, but his narrow victory along sectarian lines proved the straw that broke the camel's back.

A number of Protestants announced their departure from the government. Within months, a new project, a specifically Protestant political platform, had been launched to fight the next election. They sought to avoid the image of a conservative Protestant movement seeking vengeance on Catholics from the right, and drafted popular writer and theologian Michael Landgraf as their lead candidate. His moderate progressive political leanings set the tone: the Protestant List positioned itself in the centre and campaigned on a fresh start for Palatine politics, overturning a paradigm long past its use-by date.

On election day, the Open Centre took a sharp dive to a historic low. The difference mainly went to the Protestant List, but also to the Left, who won a plurality for the first time in decades. The arithmetic was inconclusive, with balance of power shared between the Protestants and Citizens. Either could form government with the Left, or team up to prop up the Open Centre. But there was an air of inevitability about the final outcome: the rift on the right was too deep, too fresh, to be reconciled so soon. Landgraf steered the Protestants into negotiations with the Left Alliance, forming the first centre-left government in the Palatinate's independent history.
 
2021 & 2022 German federal elections (NCT)
I got into the new 2021 Germany mod for New Campaign Trail with a vengeance, and got such an interesting outcome from pursuing a Bahamas coalition (CDU-FDP-AfD) with Söder that I made a little oneshot out of it.

OWKTLz0.png


yV7cphh.png


xwgpQ5T.png


qPa0dOA.png


GseSjka.png


edEI3JJ.png


There is a small inaccuracy in the scenario, in that there is no mechanism for an "interim Chancellor" to be installed by the Bundestag - the Basic Law specifies that an early election can only be called if the Bundestag fails to elect anyone within two weeks (and if the President declines to appoint the most popular candidate after a final round of voting). Günther being elected would prevent snap elections. So in reality Merkel would have continued in office until like May 2022 or something. But that's kinda beside the point. Cool scenario.

There is a surge for the Free Voters, and a new centrist party is indeed formed by CDU/CSU and FDP defectors called the Democratic Centre, but they fail to pick up much momentum in the face of the more established parties and only get 2.8% and no seats. After the 2022 election, the Greens and SPD are agonisingly one seat short of a majority between them. Having sworn off cooperation with the Union due to their aborted collaboration with the AfD, and with the FDP coming up a hair short of the national threshold, the Greens and SPD forced to pick between a coalition with the Left or the Free Voters. After spending the last six months hammering the Union endlessly for working with extremists, they decide that forming government with the Left would - although objectively a far less dangerous move than Söder's - be a bad look. The right-of-centre Free Voters are far from an ideal partner, but they can make it work. Besides, what's the alternative?
 
Last edited:
That seems like an awful lot of AfD direktmandaten for a seat number very similar to what they got in OTL 2021. Though I suppose this doesn't have as many total seats as OTL due to the overhangs. I wish they routinely had a statewide top vote map as well on Wiki because that's fascinating.
 
That seems like an awful lot of AfD direktmandaten for a seat number very similar to what they got in OTL 2021. Though I suppose this doesn't have as many total seats as OTL due to the overhangs. I wish they routinely had a statewide top vote map as well on Wiki because that's fascinating.
The vote is more split due to the SPD's worse result, while the Greens naturally don't perform as well in the East as the West outside the big cities, so AfD was able to win most of them in the low-mid 20% range.
 
Back
Top