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AHC/WI: Black Panther Party or related party surviving

R

Roger II

Well-known member
NOTE: This includes other explicitly "Black Power" related parties such as the original Black Panther Party of Alabama, other offshoots of the Lowndes County Freedom Organization, etc.

So the Black Power movement has an interesting history. It originated in a real degree in rural Alabama out of frustration with the still-segregated Democratic Party and a need for a political movement that would be effective vehicle for African-American political interests. Later, this inspired the Black Panther Party to form in Oakland. OTL, the destruction of the Dixiecrats and the use of the VRA and other legislation to prevent discrimination in primary elections weakened the apparent need for a separate party in the South and police intimidation and public disapprobation destroyed the Black Panthers in the west and north. Could either of these groups have lasted longer or survived to present, or could related and more durable groups have formed? What would be the effects on American politics of a viable African-American-centric party? The Black Belt and major cities could provide enough districts and areas where they could secure a majority that the usual pressures against third parties in FPTP systems are weaker.
 
Often in histories of the black power/black nationalist movement two things are usually linked with its decline. The first is direct political persecution from the FBI and local police departments. Along with assassinations and jailings of leadership, there were also the usual COINTELPRO-induced splits and factionalism that destroyed most of the 1970s radicals in the United States.

The second factor was the crack epidemic and the War on Drugs. Crack absolutely ravaged black communities beginning in the 70s and 80s and destroyed the social base of the BPP. The young African American men that made up the active base of the Black Panther Party were also all basically thrown into prison as a result of the War on Drugs.

Without the crack epidemic and the War on Drugs I think it's totally possible for the BPP or at least similar groups to survive to the present. I don't see them being electorally viable once the goal of non-revolutionary African American leadership (political equality) is accomplished. But they could be a force on the ground like so many 70s urban guerrilla movements that survive around the world to the present day.
 
d32123 said:
Often in histories of the black power/black nationalist movement two things are usually linked with its decline. The first is direct political persecution from the FBI and local police departments. Along with assassinations and jailings of leadership, there were also the usual COINTELPRO-induced splits and factionalism that destroyed most of the 1970s radicals in the United States.

The second factor was the crack epidemic and the War on Drugs. Crack absolutely ravaged black communities beginning in the 70s and 80s and destroyed the social base of the BPP. The young African American men that made up the active base of the Black Panther Party were also all basically thrown into prison as a result of the War on Drugs.

Without the crack epidemic and the War on Drugs I think it's totally possible for the BPP or at least similar groups to survive to the present. I don't see them being electorally viable once the goal of non-revolutionary African American leadership (political equality) is accomplished. But they could be a force on the ground like so many 70s urban guerrilla movements that survive around the world to the present day.
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Would a Hubert Humphrey victory in 1968 be enough to prevent or at least delay and/or reduce the scope of the War on Drugs?
 
Roger II said:
NOTE: This includes other explicitly "Black Power" related parties such as the original Black Panther Party of Alabama, other offshoots of the Lowndes County Freedom Organization, etc.

So the Black Power movement has an interesting history. It originated in a real degree in rural Alabama out of frustration with the still-segregated Democratic Party and a need for a political movement that would be effective vehicle for African-American political interests. Later, this inspired the Black Panther Party to form in Oakland. OTL, the destruction of the Dixiecrats and the use of the VRA and other legislation to prevent discrimination in primary elections weakened the apparent need for a separate party in the South and police intimidation and public disapprobation destroyed the Black Panthers in the west and north. Could either of these groups have lasted longer or survived to present, or could related and more durable groups have formed? What would be the effects on American politics of a viable African-American-centric party? The Black Belt and major cities could provide enough districts and areas where they could secure a majority that the usual pressures against third parties in FPTP systems are weaker.
Click to expand...
If you want a stronger third party presence in the US, you should have things such as runoff elections and instant runoff voting (like they currently have in Maine). If, for instance, US presidential elections had a runoff if no one won a majority of the total vote (like they have in France), then people might feel much more confident voting for third parties. Ditto with things such as instant runoff voting.
 
CaliGuy said:
If you want a stronger third party presence in the US, you should have things such as runoff elections and instant runoff voting (like they currently have in Maine). If, for instance, US presidential elections had a runoff if no one won a majority of the total vote (like they have in France), then people might feel much more confident voting for third parties. Ditto with things such as instant runoff voting.
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The Black Panthers' influence was mainly outside of electoral politics, and I'd imagine that if they did start seriously contesting elections it would probably be at the municipal level - which is nonpartisan in most of the country. I'd love to read some kind of no War on Drugs / no crack epidemic TL.

I'm trying to imagine a way for something like the LCFO or the Freedom Democratic Party to become a permanent presence in the South - maybe if the realignment of Southern Democrats was much earlier and faster? Like, the Dixiecrats break off permanently in response to a very pro-civil-rights Northern Democrat in the 50s or early 60s (Bill Douglas? A Yung Humphrey?) and a FDP equivalent gets recognition as the legitimate representative of the federal party? It's hard to imagine a civil rights third party in the South, since the main reason for having one would be the Democratic and Republican Parties both being irredeemably racist, but that would mean no VRA and no democracy in the South for such a party to exist in.

Edit: should have specified here that they did contest elections in Oakland but not until after they'd peaked as an organization.
 
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BClick said:
The Black Panthers' influence was mainly outside of electoral politics, and I'd imagine that if they did start seriously contesting elections it would probably be at the municipal level - which is nonpartisan in most of the country. I'd love to read some kind of no War on Drugs / no crack epidemic TL.

I'm trying to imagine a way for something like the LCFO or the Freedom Democratic Party to become a permanent presence in the South - maybe if the realignment of Southern Democrats was much earlier and faster? Like, the Dixiecrats break off permanently in response to a very pro-civil-rights Northern Democrat in the 50s or early 60s (Bill Douglas? A Yung Humphrey?) and a FDP equivalent gets recognition as the legitimate representative of the federal party? It's hard to imagine a civil rights third party in the South, since the main reason for having one would be the Democratic and Republican Parties both being irredeemably racist, but that would mean no VRA and no democracy in the South for such a party to exist in.
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I think the second option is more viable, although it feels like the way the Farmer-Labor party went in Minnesota. Maybe it happens in such a faction such that the *AFDP or MFDP doesn't 100% trust the Democratic party or for whatever reason opening up elections is faster and easier than opening the primary process, and they decide they'd rather be running their own party and playing kingmaker at the state/congressional level?

EDIT: A "no crack epidemic" TL is not quite a "no war on drugs" TL since the War On Drugs started earlier. Maybe you can combine them with a PoD that suggests earlier focus on treatment-oriented drug policies and weakening interventionism in Latin America, thus reducing the coca export trade? Also there's the fact that I assume the Black Belt was not hit by the crack epidemic the way Northern cities were. And a *BPP/FDP that is able to act as a powerful bloc in congress may get more federal dollars to social programs. Maybe a PoD that sees detente slide into a general de-escalation and non-intervention agreement, discouraging support for coups and right-wing governments in Latin America.
 
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BClick said:
The Black Panthers' influence was mainly outside of electoral politics, and I'd imagine that if they did start seriously contesting elections it would probably be at the municipal level - which is nonpartisan in most of the country. I'd love to read some kind of no War on Drugs / no crack epidemic TL.
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Yeah, at the municipal level and at the city level in heavily black cities sounds pretty realistic. :)

I'm trying to imagine a way for something like the LCFO or the Freedom Democratic Party to become a permanent presence in the South - maybe if the realignment of Southern Democrats was much earlier and faster? Like, the Dixiecrats break off permanently in response to a very pro-civil-rights Northern Democrat in the 50s or early 60s (Bill Douglas? A Yung Humphrey?) and a FDP equivalent gets recognition as the legitimate representative of the federal party? It's hard to imagine a civil rights third party in the South, since the main reason for having one would be the Democratic and Republican Parties both being irredeemably racist, but that would mean no VRA and no democracy in the South for such a party to exist in.
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Agreed with your analysis here and I also fear that there simply won't be enough blacks in the Southern US for such a party to actually win statewide elections anywhere there. After all, something like a third of all Southern US blacks moved to the Northern and Western US between 1910 and 1970 in real life.
 
CaliGuy said:
Yeah, at the municipal level and at the city level in heavily black cities sounds pretty realistic. :)



Agreed with your analysis here and I also fear that there simply won't be enough blacks in the Southern US for such a party to actually win statewide elections anywhere there. After all, something like a third of all Southern US blacks moved to the Northern and Western US between 1910 and 1970 in real life.
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Even without winning statewide, a party that can consolidate a good 30% or so(pulling numbers out of a hat) of the electorate and win a lot of county-level seats will be pretty good as a coalition partner.
 
Roger II said:
I think the second option is more viable, although it feels like the way the Farmer-Labor party went in Minnesota. Maybe it happens in such a faction such that the *AFDP or MFDP doesn't 100% trust the Democratic party or for whatever reason opening up elections is faster and easier than opening the primary process, and they decide they'd rather be running their own party and playing kingmaker at the state/congressional level?
Click to expand...

I was imagining a Democratic-Farmer-Labor-style relationship, although maybe with a more independent flair since this hypothetical FDP would have emerged from a movement entirely separate from national Democratic leadership, will have its own separate political goals, and may still distrust the federal party to a degree. Maybe CDU/CSU would be a better comparison?

CaliGuy said:
Yeah, at the municipal level and at the city level in heavily black cities sounds pretty realistic. :)
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I wrote a short piece in this forum a while back that has a little bit to do with this. I think a black-majority Northern city electing Panther leadership is definitely possible under the right circumstances - and would absolutely terrify the pants off white America.

Agreed with your analysis here and I also fear that there simply won't be enough blacks in the Southern US for such a party to actually win statewide elections anywhere there. After all, something like a third of all Southern US blacks moved to the Northern and Western US between 1910 and 1970 in real life.
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Sure, but the OTL state Democratic Parties in the Deep South still win in majority African-American congressional districts, local races, etc., as well as having strong influence in the federal party.
 
I do have this mental picture of the BPP winning elections, doing a generally good job in government, and people being "wait what"
EDIT: I sort of sense them having a very strong sense of what side their bread's buttered on and being kind of a more competent machine.
 
BClick said:
I wrote a short piece in this forum a while back that has a little bit to do with this. I think a black-majority Northern city electing Panther leadership is definitely possible under the right circumstances - and would absolutely terrify the pants off white America.
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Initially, certainly, but if they will govern well, maybe some white Americans could eventually become receptive to their message. The Black Panthers could be viewed as being a black late 20th century version of the Democratic Socialists of America, right?

Sure, but the OTL state Democratic Parties in the Deep South still win in majority African-American congressional districts, local races, etc., as well as having strong influence in the federal party.
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That's largely thanks to the 1965 Voting Rights Act, no?
 
CaliGuy said:
Initially, certainly, but if they will govern well, maybe some white Americans could eventually become receptive to their message. The Black Panthers could be viewed as being a black late 20th century version of the Democratic Socialists of America, right?
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No, not really - DSA is a reformist, multi-tendency, multi-racial organization that is working inside existing political structures like the Democratic Party. The Black Panthers were much more explicitly Marxist and revolutionary, explicitly outsiders, and liberal whites as well as reactionaries hated and feared them. You're not going to see the FBI murdering DSA leaders anytime soon.

That's largely thanks to the 1965 Voting Rights Act, no?
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Yes, but in this situation I assume there'd be some form of VRA, otherwise there couldn't be an aboveground civil rights party that could fairly contest elections.
 
BClick said:
No, not really - DSA is a reformist, multi-tendency, multi-racial organization that is working inside existing political structures like the Democratic Party. The Black Panthers were much more explicitly Marxist and revolutionary, explicitly outsiders, and liberal whites as well as reactionaries hated and feared them. You're not going to see the FBI murdering DSA leaders anytime soon.
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Can the Black Panthers gradually moderate--at least in form if not in substance? Or would that simply not be their style?

Yes, but in this situation I assume there'd be some form of VRA, otherwise there couldn't be an aboveground civil rights party that could fairly contest elections.
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Gotcha.
 
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