A Grand Chaos or the Germans occupy Petrograd in 1917

[Yokai Man]

One interesting thing many forget about when talking about the Russian Revolutions of 1917 is that you can imagine the second one not happening by using a forgotten event: the German occupying Tallinn in 16 October and being within reach of Sankt Petersburg.

Say the offensive gets to be slightly more successful and you can have them very easily lay siege to the city,occupying it and forcing Kerensky and the Provincial Government to retreat to Moscow and seriously consider suing for peace/being forced to sue for peace. Due to the city being under siege/ occupied,the Bolsheviks don’t get to stage an uprising because,well,more concerning matters have occurred.

Hell,it’s likely that in the ensuing chaos Trotsky and other important members of the Central Committee get up dead or imprisoned by one of the two sides,thus decapitating a massive part of the party. Lenin can’t do anything because he’s in Finland hiding from Kerensky’s government and would be isolated as a result.

What then?

 

[Nyvis]

One interesting thing many forget about when talking about the Russian Revolutions of 1917 is that you can imagine the second one not happening by using a forgotten event: the German occupying Tallinn in 16 October and being within reach of Sankt Petersburg.

Say the offensive gets to be slightly more successful and you can have them very easily lay siege to the city,occupying it and forcing Kerensky and the Provincial Government to retreat to Moscow and seriously consider suing for peace/being forced to sue for peace. Due to the city being under siege/ occupied,the Bolsheviks don’t get to stage an uprising because,well,more concerning matters have occurred.

Hell,it’s likely that in the ensuing chaos Trotsky and other important members of the Central Committee get up dead or imprisoned by one of the two sides,thus decapitating a massive part of the party. Lenin can’t do anything because he’s in Finland hiding from Kerensky’s government and would be isolated as a result.

What then?

I feel like it's too late to avoid revolution though. If the provisional government get a free pass in evacuating to Moscow, I don't see why leading Bolsheviks wouldn't either. And even if they don't there's people in Moscow they can tap to lead the city in rejecting the failed government.

 

[Yokai Man]

I feel like it's too late to avoid revolution though. If the provisional government get a free pass in evacuating to Moscow, I don't see why leading Bolsheviks wouldn't either. And even if they don't there's people in Moscow they can tap to lead the city in rejecting the failed government.

Fair enough,I do feel though that they would have a harder time organizing with Trotsky and others being dead. Not to mention the Moscow Committee was more divided at the time.

Still,like you said,it’s not implausible that Rykov,Nogin,Bubnov and Rosengolts manage to cobble up something.

 

[Nyvis]

Fair enough,I do feel though that they would have a harder time organizing with Trotsky and others being dead. Not to mention the Moscow Committee was more divided at the time.

Still,like you said,it’s not implausible that Rykov,Nogin,Bubnov and Rosengolts manage to cobble up something.

Maybe, but the provisional government also ate a massive blow. They might just evacuate to be received by red guns in Moscow.

 

[Yokai Man]

Maybe, but the provisional government also ate a massive blow. They might just evacuate to be received by red guns in Moscow.

Again,not implasable but this is the Moscow Commitee we're talking and they were really indicisive and more independently minded that Lenin the control freak wanted.

It would be interesting to see Rykov end up running things.

 

[raharris1973]

What's your source for the Germans taking Talinn at that date? And how many miles or kilometers is that from Petrograd? Did the Germans seize Narva around the same time? That is much closer.

 

[Yokai Man]

What's your source for the Germans taking Talinn at that date? And how many miles or kilometers is that from Petrograd? Did the Germans seize Narva around the same time? That is much closer.

Ah,my bad,I meant to say Riga. Messed up the dates a bit.

Still,the scenario still stands.

Edit: I should have originally phrased as “Operation Albion is slightly more successful and the Germans manage to occupy Petrograd“ but you get the idea.