After much kneading of numbers, I've finally figured out a set of boundaries for Malmö that both fit quota (in fact, all seats are within a thousand electors of it, which is a good deal tighter than strictly needed) and don't make me want to claw my eyes out. There's quite a lot of change from 2014-18, so best get right to it.
The city centre seat (
Centrum) is badly over quota, largely because of continued new development in Västra Hamnen, and this means it loses a lot of territory - its southern boundary moves from Föreningsgatan to Kanalen, which actually brings it below quota again, so I've moved most (but not all) of Ribersborg into this seat to compensate. I was hesitant to do this at first, because it feels like bringing all the most right-wing parts of the inner city together, but to my surprise the seat still ends up going red in two out of three scenarios. I'm thinking I might do "notional" 2018 results (obviously all of these are notional results, but you get what I mean) just to make it easier to tell what results are due to boundary changes and which ones are actual votes changing hands between the two elections.
Malmö's growth between 2014 and 2022 means it's now entitled to eleven seats - actually a bit more than that - in its own right, as opposed to the ten-and-a-half it had, and this in turn means huge changes to the former border-crossing seat of Kirseberg-Arlöv. Specifically, Arlöv moves out, and the area of Kirseberg south of the old railway line (which is more suburban in character than the rest of the district, with mostly owner-occupied houses and large amounts of both green space and industrial land) moves over to Husie, which was under quota. The constituency is thus reconfigured as a much more urban seat, taking in areas from both Centrum, Möllevången and Rosengård-Sorgenfri, and renamed "Värnhem" after the square that serves as its main transport hub and commercial centre.
Speaking of constituencies named after transport hubs, a new seat (you
could see it as a continuation of the old Eriksfält seat, but I'm choosing not to do that as they only share four polling districts) is created in the south-central part of the city, and I decided to call it Södervärn as that feels like the most neutral name, being not a very populous area that's nevertheless centrally-located in the seat and has a major bus station that makes it a focal point for the area. This seat is almost entirely rental housing, mixed between four-to-six-storey tenements in the older eastern part of it (Sofielund and Södervärn proper) and panel blocks of anywhere from four to fifteen storeys surrounded by green space in the newer western areas (Lorensborg, Borgmästaregården and Gröndal). In between the two is Södervärn bus station, the hospital precinct and a large area of underdeveloped commercial/industrial land that includes the Mobilia shopping centre as well as a large number of smaller health and social care institutions. It's also home to both the Malmö Stadium and Pildammsparken, Malmö's largest and most famous urban park, which I almost named the seat for before realising it was far too peripheral to it.
The main seats Södervärn takes voters from, aside from Möllevången, are Slottsstaden and Hyllie, both of which shift dramatically away from the city centre. Slottsstaden doesn't change quite as radically in makeup as you might expect from the map - it gives up some of Malmö's most prosperous inner-city neighbourhoods and exchanges them for some of its most prosperous inner suburbs, while the core of middle-class rentals and co-ops stays in place. Hyllie, meanwhile, had to change drastically because of the rapid development of its namesake district, which started out as a railway station, a big stadium and an even bigger shopping centre surrounded by mounds of sand and dirt, but is now beginning to see a significant amount of residential housing built as well. The loss of its northern end to Södervärn is accompanied by the transfer of six polling districts - three (the Lindeborg area) from Fosie, two (Hyllieby, the very suburban former church village of Hyllie parish, and Elinelund, a new-build area very similar to Hyllie itself, albeit smaller) from Limhamn, and one (the anonymous and sleepy village of Vintrie, largely unchanged for decades despite now being surrounded by highways and railways) from Oxie-Bunkeflo. The result is a very different kind of constituency, much more suburban and less dominated by large post-war housing estates, and this makes it a bit less red than it was.
Fosie is also more geographically coherent than before, now taking in most of the triangle between Ystadsvägen, Trelleborgsvägen and the outer ring road. It remains a thoroughly working-class, multicultural, and tenant-dominated seat, as does Rosengård-Sorgenfri, which sees only a minor shift south, losing Kristinelund and taking in Augustenborg and Persborg and becoming more centred on the two commuter rail stations along the old line toward Trelleborg. Husie, similarly, sees only minor change, expanding a bit in geographic area but remaining a thoroughly suburban seat with a solid but not overwhelming majority of owner-occupied housing.
Lastly, Oxie-Bunkeflo. There's not actually very much change to it, but the loss of Vintrie creates a geographic cleavage that sort of underlines how awkward this seat was to begin with. I may end up looking into the alternative configuration I thought of, but didn't implement, last time around, where Bunkeflo gets paired with Vellinge and Oxie with Svedala instead, but I don't actually know if the numbers would add up for that.
You're probably interested to see the results, so here they are. As mentioned, 2022 saw a lot of change towards the Social Democrats specifically among middle-class voters in the cities, and this means every seat in Malmö goes red in scenario A - only Limhamn holds out, and by a shockingly narrow margin at that. Meanwhile, Möllevången sticks with the Left Party by a razor-thin margin (45 votes) in spite of the boundary changes.
In scenarios B and C, the social divide in Malmö becomes a lot more clear, but most of the city remains either solidly or narrowly red. Oxie-Bunkeflo turn blue in both scenarios, especially strongly so in scenario C where the Sweden Democrats and Moderates - both quite strong in exurban Malmö - pool their votes, while Centrum actually switches back in scenario C due to a respectable 8% voteshare for the Centre Party. In general, minor parties did quite well in that constituency, and the Social Democrats won the seat in scenario A with just 24% of the vote.
Oh, and in case anyone wonders, Nyans gets just shy of 10% of the vote in Rosengård-Sorgenfri, 5.8% in Fosie and 3.1% in Hyllie. They barely have a presence anywhere else in the city, and I imagine in an actual FPTP scenario they'd only bother to stand candidates in those three seats, maybe Södervärn as well if they could find someone to stand for them.