- Location
- Derbyshire
I thought it might be the current situation but I couldn't find easy confirmation online.
-
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Projekt Enman (FPTP Sweden redux)
- Thread starter Ares96
- Start date
I thought it might be the current situation but I couldn't find easy confirmation online.
Makemakean
Mr Makemean
- Pronouns
- Logical, unlike those in German
The official view taken by the Liberals is that the January Agreement was a contract of sorts which lasts for four years, and they have now declared that they do not intend to enter into negotiations to renew it, but rather will seek to be part of a coalition with the Moderates and the Christian Democrats which would cooperate with the Sweden Democrats on specific issues.
Which is, quite frankly, a rather untenable position to take under current parliamentary practices, as budget rules were reformed following the financial crisis in the 90s to make the budget a matter that had to be treated as a whole as opposed to piecemeal which had been the previous practice--and which was deemed to be a failure at the time for fairly good reasons.
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
I've chosen not to count the Left as part of the JA bloc, which certainly affects the victory margins in some places, but I can't imagine it'll actually lead to many seats changing hands. As for the Liberals, well, they were a signatory party to the Agreement itself, and the Left were not, so.
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
You're not getting seat-by-seat writeups for these, but I'm going to try to make a proper, decent-looking website for this project once it's done, so the equivalent information would come then. For now, here's Stockholm, Uppsala and Västmanland counties under each of the three scenarios.
Scenario A (this one has some seats filled in outside the relevant counties, but those aren't counted in the totals):
Stockholm City: S 19, M 14
Stockholm County: M 23, S 18, SD 1
Uppsala County: S 12, M 1
Västmanland County: S 8, M 1
Total: S 57, M 39, SD 1
Scenario B:
Stockholm City: RG 19, ALL 14
Stockholm County: ALL 33, RG 9
Uppsala County: RG 7, ALL 6
Västmanland County: RG 6, ALL 3
Total: ALL 56, RG 41
Scenario C:
Stockholm City: JA 28, OPP 5
Stockholm County: OPP 32, JA 10
Uppsala County: JA 9, OPP 4
Västmanland County: JA 5, OPP 4
Total: JA 52, OPP 45
Scenario A (this one has some seats filled in outside the relevant counties, but those aren't counted in the totals):
Stockholm City: S 19, M 14
Stockholm County: M 23, S 18, SD 1
Uppsala County: S 12, M 1
Västmanland County: S 8, M 1
Total: S 57, M 39, SD 1
Scenario B:
Stockholm City: RG 19, ALL 14
Stockholm County: ALL 33, RG 9
Uppsala County: RG 7, ALL 6
Västmanland County: RG 6, ALL 3
Total: ALL 56, RG 41
Scenario C:
Stockholm City: JA 28, OPP 5
Stockholm County: OPP 32, JA 10
Uppsala County: JA 9, OPP 4
Västmanland County: JA 5, OPP 4
Total: JA 52, OPP 45
- Location
- Derbyshire
You weren't kidding on that Urban/Rural split!
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
I’ll probably be returning to this soonish, as I’d quite like to have the country done by the time the election campaign kicks into high gear. I may end up trying to learn how to make a proper website of it, but there’ll be maps on here before that.
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
Okay, so I've managed to add another two counties to the map.
Scenario A (again, seats outside finished counties don't count toward the total):
Stockholm City: S 19, M 14
Stockholm County: M 23, S 18, SD 1
Uppsala County: S 12, M 1
Västmanland: S 8, M 1
Södermanland: S 8, M 1, SD 1
Östergötland: S 16
Total: S 81, M 40, SD 2
Scenario B:
Stockholm City: RG 19, ALL 14
Stockholm County: ALL 33, RG 9
Uppsala County: RG 7, ALL 6
Västmanland: RG 6, ALL 3
Södermanland: RG 7, ALL 3
Östergötland: ALL 10, RG 6
Total: ALL 66, RG 48
Scenario C:
Stockholm City: JA 28, OPP 5
Stockholm County: OPP 32, JA 10
Uppsala County: JA 9, OPP 4
Västmanland: JA 5, OPP 4
Södermanland: JA 6, OPP 4
Östergötland: JA 11, OPP 5
Total: JA 69, OPP 54
As you can see, Östergötland comes out very strange in scenario C. This is due on the one hand to the Centre Party being quite strong there, which means rural areas get redder in scenario C than in B, while Norrköping in particular seems to have quite a strong SD vote that delivers it to the opposition in scenario C.
Scenario A (again, seats outside finished counties don't count toward the total):
Stockholm City: S 19, M 14
Stockholm County: M 23, S 18, SD 1
Uppsala County: S 12, M 1
Västmanland: S 8, M 1
Södermanland: S 8, M 1, SD 1
Östergötland: S 16
Total: S 81, M 40, SD 2
Scenario B:
Stockholm City: RG 19, ALL 14
Stockholm County: ALL 33, RG 9
Uppsala County: RG 7, ALL 6
Västmanland: RG 6, ALL 3
Södermanland: RG 7, ALL 3
Östergötland: ALL 10, RG 6
Total: ALL 66, RG 48
Scenario C:
Stockholm City: JA 28, OPP 5
Stockholm County: OPP 32, JA 10
Uppsala County: JA 9, OPP 4
Västmanland: JA 5, OPP 4
Södermanland: JA 6, OPP 4
Östergötland: JA 11, OPP 5
Total: JA 69, OPP 54
As you can see, Östergötland comes out very strange in scenario C. This is due on the one hand to the Centre Party being quite strong there, which means rural areas get redder in scenario C than in B, while Norrköping in particular seems to have quite a strong SD vote that delivers it to the opposition in scenario C.
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
Småland is done, which means we've linked up with the southern counties I'd already done and I can include those in our totals.
Scenario A (again, seats outside finished counties don't count toward the total):
Stockholm City: S 19, M 14
Stockholm County: M 23, S 18, SD 1
Uppsala County: S 12, M 1
Västmanland: S 8, M 1
Södermanland: S 8, M 1, SD 1
Östergötland: S 16
Jönköping County: S 12
Kronoberg County: S 7
Kalmar County: S 9
Gotland: S 2
Blekinge: S 6
Skåne: S 18, SD 15, M 12, V 1
Total: S 135, M 52, SD 17, V 1
Scenario B:
Stockholm City: RG 19, ALL 14
Stockholm County: ALL 33, RG 9
Uppsala County: RG 7, ALL 6
Västmanland: RG 6, ALL 3
Södermanland: RG 7, ALL 3
Östergötland: ALL 10, RG 6
Jönköping County: ALL 10, RG 2
Kronoberg County: ALL 5, RG 2
Kalmar County: RG 7, ALL 2
Gotland: RG 1, ALL 1
Blekinge: RG 6
Skåne: ALL 26, RG 17, NAT 3
Total: ALL 113, RG 89, NAT 3
Scenario C:
Stockholm City: JA 28, OPP 5
Stockholm County: OPP 32, JA 10
Uppsala County: JA 9, OPP 4
Västmanland: JA 5, OPP 4
Södermanland: JA 6, OPP 4
Östergötland: JA 11, OPP 5
Jönköping County: OPP 9, JA 3
Kronoberg County: OPP 5, JA 2
Kalmar County: JA 7, OPP 2
Gotland: JA 2
Blekinge: OPP 4, JA 2
Skåne: OPP 34, JA 12
Total: OPP 108, JA 97
Predictably, adding the south into the mix tips the scales in favour of the right opposition in scenario C. Of course, most (though far from all) of the regions we've yet to do tend to be redder, so it remains to be seen if it'll tip back before we're done.
Scenario A (again, seats outside finished counties don't count toward the total):
Stockholm City: S 19, M 14
Stockholm County: M 23, S 18, SD 1
Uppsala County: S 12, M 1
Västmanland: S 8, M 1
Södermanland: S 8, M 1, SD 1
Östergötland: S 16
Jönköping County: S 12
Kronoberg County: S 7
Kalmar County: S 9
Gotland: S 2
Blekinge: S 6
Skåne: S 18, SD 15, M 12, V 1
Total: S 135, M 52, SD 17, V 1
Scenario B:
Stockholm City: RG 19, ALL 14
Stockholm County: ALL 33, RG 9
Uppsala County: RG 7, ALL 6
Västmanland: RG 6, ALL 3
Södermanland: RG 7, ALL 3
Östergötland: ALL 10, RG 6
Jönköping County: ALL 10, RG 2
Kronoberg County: ALL 5, RG 2
Kalmar County: RG 7, ALL 2
Gotland: RG 1, ALL 1
Blekinge: RG 6
Skåne: ALL 26, RG 17, NAT 3
Total: ALL 113, RG 89, NAT 3
Scenario C:
Stockholm City: JA 28, OPP 5
Stockholm County: OPP 32, JA 10
Uppsala County: JA 9, OPP 4
Västmanland: JA 5, OPP 4
Södermanland: JA 6, OPP 4
Östergötland: JA 11, OPP 5
Jönköping County: OPP 9, JA 3
Kronoberg County: OPP 5, JA 2
Kalmar County: JA 7, OPP 2
Gotland: JA 2
Blekinge: OPP 4, JA 2
Skåne: OPP 34, JA 12
Total: OPP 108, JA 97
Predictably, adding the south into the mix tips the scales in favour of the right opposition in scenario C. Of course, most (though far from all) of the regions we've yet to do tend to be redder, so it remains to be seen if it'll tip back before we're done.
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
Here's a closer look at Stockholm - this is the exact same map as that posted in the first post of this thread, but with the 2018 results instead of the 2014 ones.
Literally zero seats changed hands, but some things are still worth noting - most significantly, Midsommarkransen's margin dropped like a stone, but a lot of inner-city and inner southern suburban seats had a slight blueshift too. Most likely, this is due to the Centre Party taking voters off the Greens compared to 2014 - as you can tell from the scenario-C map above, moving the Centre into the red camp (and taking the Left out) gives Stockholm a landslide result.
Literally zero seats changed hands, but some things are still worth noting - most significantly, Midsommarkransen's margin dropped like a stone, but a lot of inner-city and inner southern suburban seats had a slight blueshift too. Most likely, this is due to the Centre Party taking voters off the Greens compared to 2014 - as you can tell from the scenario-C map above, moving the Centre into the red camp (and taking the Left out) gives Stockholm a landslide result.
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
Gothenburg
Quota (for all of Västra Götaland County): 21,428
Number of constituencies: 22 (counting everything on the map - the Partille seat includes no territory inside Gothenburg municipality, so in practice it's fairer to say the number is 21)
Part One: Inner City
208: Göteborg Centrum (Gothenburg Centre)
Electorate: 20,003 (-1,425)
As the name implies, this seat includes most of Gothenburg's city centre - its population is concentrated in the south and east of the seat, in Stampen, Heden and around Kungsportsavenyn. Avenyn (as it's almost always known), along with intersecting Vasagatan, is the city's traditional millionaires' row, and even though Heden and Stampen are more typical mixed inner-city neighbourhoods, this still leaves the constituency solidly blue.
Moderate: 4,743 (28.7%)
Social Democratic: 2,759 (16.7%)
Sweden Democrats: 2,199 (13.3%)
Alliance: 8,685 (52.6%)
Red-Greens: 5,435 (32.9%)
Right Opposition: 7,941 (48.1%)
January Bloc: 6,688 (40.5%)
209: Johanneberg
Electorate: 24,857 (+3,429)
This seat, which is getting dangerously large at this point (though it's somehow only the second biggest in the city), covers the southern half of the Centrum borough, and is centred on the campus of Chalmers University of Technology. Students, both of Chalmers and the University of Gothenburg, form a significant demographic here, but the seat also includes plenty of regular rental housing as well as a few detached houses along the city line in Krokslätt. While very diverse, it's prosperous enough to deliver a small blue majority in all scenarios but C.
Moderate: 4,486 (21.5%)
Social Democratic: 3,759 (18.0%)
Left: 2,895 (13.8%)
Alliance: 9,671 (46.2%)
Red-Greens: 8,777 (42.0%)
January Bloc: 9,683 (46.3%)
Right Opposition: 7,760 (37.1%)
210: Haga och Slottsskogen
Electorate: 19,890 (-1,538)
Haga, once a run-down working-class neighbourhood with dilapidated houses, little government presence and a strong Communist bent (usually not the electoralist kind), has latterly become a symbol of Gothenburg's gentrification. Rather than being torn down as elsewhere, the area's characteristic wooden houses have been renovated and now sell for millions, several being home to boutique shops and cafés where tourists can come and eat dinner-plate-sized cinnamon rolls. To its south, the area around Linnéplatsen is a typical middle-class inner-city neighbourhood whose inhabitants mostly vote blue, and they're a far bigger part of the electorate than the couple of thousand people who still live in Haga, so the seat goes their way and ends up similar-ish to Johanneberg.
Moderate: 3,708 (22.3%)
Social Democratic: 3,035 (18.2%)
Left: 2,489 (14.9%)
Alliance: 7,560 (45.4%)
Red-Greens: 7,152 (42.9%)
January Bloc: 7,477 (44.9%)
Right Opposition: 6,309 (37.9%)
211: Masthugget
Electorate: 21,122 (-306)
I have no reliable way of checking (yet - watch this space), but I have a strong suspicion Masthugget is the smallest constituency by land area in Sweden. This is the heart of working-class Gothenburg - Andra Långgatan is packed with dive bars (though not as many as in the 80s, when it was practically a Shinjuku Golden Gai situation), Järntorget is where the city's May Day celebrations traditionally take place, and the KPML(r) was based in the charmingly-named Marx-Engels House at the neighbourhood's south end throughout its golden age. Predictably, it's quite a left-leaning seat - in 2014, the Moderates won it in scenario A thanks to the very divided left, but in 2018 the Left Party takes the seat on a strong swing from both the Greens, the Social Democrats and FI. It's reliably left-wing in both other scenarios, although slightly less so in scenario C due to the Left being removed from the red bloc.
Left: 4,497 (25.0%)
Social Democratic: 3,470 (19.3%)
Moderate: 2,821 (15.7%)
Red-Greens: 10,108 (56.2%)
Alliance: 6,102 (34.0%)
January Bloc: 8,010 (44.6%)
Right Opposition: 5,015 (27.9%)
212: Majorna
Electorate: 19,402 (-2,026)
No one knows where Majorna got its name - there's a persistent rumour that it comes from the word mög, meaning manure, as it was home to the refuse dump for nearby Älvsborg Fortress, but the more likely option is that it comes from a Finnish or Estonian word meaning a shack or cottage. Either way, you can guess from those theories that this is not a wealthy area - historically, it was mainly populated by sailors, dockers and menial labourers who couldn't afford to live anywhere else. It wasn't annexed into Gothenburg proper until the 1860s, and even then it remained a firmly working-class area for over a century afterwards. It's really only in recent years that gentrification has begun to hit it, and it remains diverse and bohemian enough to make it a solidly red seat. In 2014, this was the Left's only seat in scenario A, and they hold it in 2018.
Left: 4,997 (30.8%)
Social Democratic: 3,394 (20.9%)
Green: 1,729 (10.6%)
Red-Greens: 10,408 (64.1%)
Alliance: 4,010 (24.7%)
January Bloc: 6,884 (42.4%)
Right Opposition: 3,855 (23.7%)
Quota (for all of Västra Götaland County): 21,428
Number of constituencies: 22 (counting everything on the map - the Partille seat includes no territory inside Gothenburg municipality, so in practice it's fairer to say the number is 21)
Part One: Inner City
208: Göteborg Centrum (Gothenburg Centre)
Electorate: 20,003 (-1,425)
As the name implies, this seat includes most of Gothenburg's city centre - its population is concentrated in the south and east of the seat, in Stampen, Heden and around Kungsportsavenyn. Avenyn (as it's almost always known), along with intersecting Vasagatan, is the city's traditional millionaires' row, and even though Heden and Stampen are more typical mixed inner-city neighbourhoods, this still leaves the constituency solidly blue.
Moderate: 4,743 (28.7%)
Social Democratic: 2,759 (16.7%)
Sweden Democrats: 2,199 (13.3%)
Alliance: 8,685 (52.6%)
Red-Greens: 5,435 (32.9%)
Right Opposition: 7,941 (48.1%)
January Bloc: 6,688 (40.5%)
209: Johanneberg
Electorate: 24,857 (+3,429)
This seat, which is getting dangerously large at this point (though it's somehow only the second biggest in the city), covers the southern half of the Centrum borough, and is centred on the campus of Chalmers University of Technology. Students, both of Chalmers and the University of Gothenburg, form a significant demographic here, but the seat also includes plenty of regular rental housing as well as a few detached houses along the city line in Krokslätt. While very diverse, it's prosperous enough to deliver a small blue majority in all scenarios but C.
Moderate: 4,486 (21.5%)
Social Democratic: 3,759 (18.0%)
Left: 2,895 (13.8%)
Alliance: 9,671 (46.2%)
Red-Greens: 8,777 (42.0%)
January Bloc: 9,683 (46.3%)
Right Opposition: 7,760 (37.1%)
210: Haga och Slottsskogen
Electorate: 19,890 (-1,538)
Haga, once a run-down working-class neighbourhood with dilapidated houses, little government presence and a strong Communist bent (usually not the electoralist kind), has latterly become a symbol of Gothenburg's gentrification. Rather than being torn down as elsewhere, the area's characteristic wooden houses have been renovated and now sell for millions, several being home to boutique shops and cafés where tourists can come and eat dinner-plate-sized cinnamon rolls. To its south, the area around Linnéplatsen is a typical middle-class inner-city neighbourhood whose inhabitants mostly vote blue, and they're a far bigger part of the electorate than the couple of thousand people who still live in Haga, so the seat goes their way and ends up similar-ish to Johanneberg.
Moderate: 3,708 (22.3%)
Social Democratic: 3,035 (18.2%)
Left: 2,489 (14.9%)
Alliance: 7,560 (45.4%)
Red-Greens: 7,152 (42.9%)
January Bloc: 7,477 (44.9%)
Right Opposition: 6,309 (37.9%)
211: Masthugget
Electorate: 21,122 (-306)
I have no reliable way of checking (yet - watch this space), but I have a strong suspicion Masthugget is the smallest constituency by land area in Sweden. This is the heart of working-class Gothenburg - Andra Långgatan is packed with dive bars (though not as many as in the 80s, when it was practically a Shinjuku Golden Gai situation), Järntorget is where the city's May Day celebrations traditionally take place, and the KPML(r) was based in the charmingly-named Marx-Engels House at the neighbourhood's south end throughout its golden age. Predictably, it's quite a left-leaning seat - in 2014, the Moderates won it in scenario A thanks to the very divided left, but in 2018 the Left Party takes the seat on a strong swing from both the Greens, the Social Democrats and FI. It's reliably left-wing in both other scenarios, although slightly less so in scenario C due to the Left being removed from the red bloc.
Left: 4,497 (25.0%)
Social Democratic: 3,470 (19.3%)
Moderate: 2,821 (15.7%)
Red-Greens: 10,108 (56.2%)
Alliance: 6,102 (34.0%)
January Bloc: 8,010 (44.6%)
Right Opposition: 5,015 (27.9%)
212: Majorna
Electorate: 19,402 (-2,026)
No one knows where Majorna got its name - there's a persistent rumour that it comes from the word mög, meaning manure, as it was home to the refuse dump for nearby Älvsborg Fortress, but the more likely option is that it comes from a Finnish or Estonian word meaning a shack or cottage. Either way, you can guess from those theories that this is not a wealthy area - historically, it was mainly populated by sailors, dockers and menial labourers who couldn't afford to live anywhere else. It wasn't annexed into Gothenburg proper until the 1860s, and even then it remained a firmly working-class area for over a century afterwards. It's really only in recent years that gentrification has begun to hit it, and it remains diverse and bohemian enough to make it a solidly red seat. In 2014, this was the Left's only seat in scenario A, and they hold it in 2018.
Left: 4,997 (30.8%)
Social Democratic: 3,394 (20.9%)
Green: 1,729 (10.6%)
Red-Greens: 10,408 (64.1%)
Alliance: 4,010 (24.7%)
January Bloc: 6,884 (42.4%)
Right Opposition: 3,855 (23.7%)
Last edited:
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
Part Two: Western Suburbs
213: Älvsborg
Electorate: 18,689 (-2,739)
This seat is centred on tram line 11, once a suburban railway line built to connect the coast and the ferry landing at Saltholmen with the city centre, and like most other such lines, the land around it very quickly became host to a glut of suburban villas. Detached housing doesn't quite make up a hundred percent of this constituency, but it's not far removed from it. Because of the aforementioned ferry landing, the Älvsborg seat also includes the southern archipelago, which is known for its strong evangelical tradition as well as general conservatism, and these elements combine to make one of the safest blue seats in the city.
Moderate: 4,625 (29.7%)
Social Democratic: 2,053 (13.2%)
Sweden Democrats: 1,816 (11.6%)
Alliance: 9,549 (61.2%)
Red-Greens: 4,123 (26.4%)
Right Opposition: 8,211 (52.6%)
January Bloc: 6,200 (39.7%)
214: Högsbo
Electorate: 22,048 (+620)
The contrast between Älvsborg and its neighbouring seats could hardly be stronger, and Högsbo is a good example of that. Made up essentially of high-rise housing estates built during the mid-century era, it's not the poorest district in Gothenburg (we're getting to those in the next two parts), but it's also far from the richest, and the result is a near-mirror image of Älvsborg in scenario B. That being said, the Sweden Democrats are also somewhat strong here, and that leads to a far narrower result in scenario C than it might have otherwise done.
Social Democratic: 4,799 (26.8%)
Left: 3,118 (17.4%)
Sweden Democrats: 2,938 (16.4%)
Red-Greens: 9,285 (51.8%)
Alliance: 5,421 (30.3%)
January Bloc: 7,937 (44.3%)
Right Opposition: 6,401 (35.8%)
215: Tynnered
Electorate: 20,757 (-671)
Tynnered is similar to Högsbo in that it's largely post-war construction, focused along the same rapid tram route (currently served by lines 1 and 7), but because it's near the coast, quite a lot of it was reserved for terraces and detached homes, which lends it a bit more of a middle-class profile. I'm not sure I'd go so far as to call it a marginal seat - it's still red in all three scenarios - but it is less safe than a lot of its neighbours.
Social Democratic: 4,711 (29.3%)
Moderate: 2,737 (17.0%)
Sweden Democrats: 2,670 (16.6%)
Red-Greens: 7,152 (44.4%)
Alliance: 6,072 (37.7%)
January Bloc: 7,271 (45.1%)
Right Opposition: 6,815 (42.3%)
216: Askim
Electorate: 23,654 (+2,226)
Askim was not part of Gothenburg until 1974, and frankly, I'm a bit shocked it is today. In both Stockholm and Malmö, areas like it would've been able to lean on someone and get the merger plans undone, but in Askim's case, their appeal was rejected and the merger forced by order in council. Whatever the reasons, it remains full of posh weirdos and votes accordingly.
Moderate: 7,816 (37.0%)
Sweden Democrats: 2,936 (13.9%)
Social Democratic: 2,409 (11.4%)
Alliance: 14,025 (66.4%)
Red-Greens: 4,019 (19.0%)
Right Opposition: 12,674 (60.0%)
January Bloc: 7,538 (35.7%)
213: Älvsborg
Electorate: 18,689 (-2,739)
This seat is centred on tram line 11, once a suburban railway line built to connect the coast and the ferry landing at Saltholmen with the city centre, and like most other such lines, the land around it very quickly became host to a glut of suburban villas. Detached housing doesn't quite make up a hundred percent of this constituency, but it's not far removed from it. Because of the aforementioned ferry landing, the Älvsborg seat also includes the southern archipelago, which is known for its strong evangelical tradition as well as general conservatism, and these elements combine to make one of the safest blue seats in the city.
Moderate: 4,625 (29.7%)
Social Democratic: 2,053 (13.2%)
Sweden Democrats: 1,816 (11.6%)
Alliance: 9,549 (61.2%)
Red-Greens: 4,123 (26.4%)
Right Opposition: 8,211 (52.6%)
January Bloc: 6,200 (39.7%)
214: Högsbo
Electorate: 22,048 (+620)
The contrast between Älvsborg and its neighbouring seats could hardly be stronger, and Högsbo is a good example of that. Made up essentially of high-rise housing estates built during the mid-century era, it's not the poorest district in Gothenburg (we're getting to those in the next two parts), but it's also far from the richest, and the result is a near-mirror image of Älvsborg in scenario B. That being said, the Sweden Democrats are also somewhat strong here, and that leads to a far narrower result in scenario C than it might have otherwise done.
Social Democratic: 4,799 (26.8%)
Left: 3,118 (17.4%)
Sweden Democrats: 2,938 (16.4%)
Red-Greens: 9,285 (51.8%)
Alliance: 5,421 (30.3%)
January Bloc: 7,937 (44.3%)
Right Opposition: 6,401 (35.8%)
215: Tynnered
Electorate: 20,757 (-671)
Tynnered is similar to Högsbo in that it's largely post-war construction, focused along the same rapid tram route (currently served by lines 1 and 7), but because it's near the coast, quite a lot of it was reserved for terraces and detached homes, which lends it a bit more of a middle-class profile. I'm not sure I'd go so far as to call it a marginal seat - it's still red in all three scenarios - but it is less safe than a lot of its neighbours.
Social Democratic: 4,711 (29.3%)
Moderate: 2,737 (17.0%)
Sweden Democrats: 2,670 (16.6%)
Red-Greens: 7,152 (44.4%)
Alliance: 6,072 (37.7%)
January Bloc: 7,271 (45.1%)
Right Opposition: 6,815 (42.3%)
216: Askim
Electorate: 23,654 (+2,226)
Askim was not part of Gothenburg until 1974, and frankly, I'm a bit shocked it is today. In both Stockholm and Malmö, areas like it would've been able to lean on someone and get the merger plans undone, but in Askim's case, their appeal was rejected and the merger forced by order in council. Whatever the reasons, it remains full of posh weirdos and votes accordingly.
Moderate: 7,816 (37.0%)
Sweden Democrats: 2,936 (13.9%)
Social Democratic: 2,409 (11.4%)
Alliance: 14,025 (66.4%)
Red-Greens: 4,019 (19.0%)
Right Opposition: 12,674 (60.0%)
January Bloc: 7,538 (35.7%)
I don't have a lot to say, but just wanted to say I appreciate this being back!
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
Thanks - it is something of an occupational hazard of posting this stuff on an obscure English-language forum instead of somewhere where people from here might actually see it.
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
I'm now past the 300-seat mark, which means the vast majority of the country is now mapped. Only the five northern counties remain to be done, and then I can move into the bright new frontier of web design (wee-hoo).
Scenario A:
Stockholm City: S 19, M 14
Stockholm County: M 23, S 18, SD 1
Uppsala County: S 12, M 1
Södermanland: S 8, M 1, SD 1
Östergötland: S 16
Jönköping County: S 12
Kronoberg County: S 7
Kalmar County: S 9
Gotland: S 2
Blekinge: S 6
Skåne: S 18, SD 15, M 12, V 1
Halland: S 6, M 4, SD 1
Gothenburg: S 12, M 7, V 2
Västra Götaland (except Gothenburg): S 35, M 2, SD 1
Värmland: S 10
Örebro County: S 11
Västmanland: S 8, M 1
Dalarna: S 10
Total: S 219, M 65, SD 19, V 3
Scenario B:
Stockholm City: RG 19, ALL 14
Stockholm County: ALL 33, RG 9
Uppsala County: RG 7, ALL 6
Södermanland: RG 7, ALL 3
Östergötland: ALL 10, RG 6
Jönköping County: ALL 10, RG 2
Kronoberg County: ALL 5, RG 2
Kalmar County: RG 7, ALL 2
Gotland: RG 1, ALL 1
Blekinge: RG 6
Skåne: ALL 26, RG 17, NAT 3
Halland: ALL 7, RG 4
Gothenburg: RG 13, ALL 8
Västra Götaland (except Gothenburg: ALL 23, RG 15
Värmland: RG 9, ALL 1
Örebro County: RG 10, ALL 1
Västmanland: RG 6, ALL 3
Dalarna: RG 7, ALL 3
Total: ALL 156, RG 147, NAT 3
Scenario C:
Stockholm City: JA 28, OPP 5
Stockholm County: OPP 32, JA 10
Uppsala County: JA 9, OPP 4
Södermanland: JA 6, OPP 4
Östergötland: JA 11, OPP 5
Jönköping County: OPP 9, JA 3
Kronoberg County: OPP 5, JA 2
Kalmar County: JA 7, OPP 2
Gotland: JA 2
Blekinge: OPP 4, JA 2
Skåne: OPP 34, JA 12
Halland: OPP 7, JA 4
Gothenburg: JA 15, OPP 6
Västra Götaland (except Gothenburg: OPP 21, JA 17
Värmland: JA 9, OPP 1
Örebro County: JA 9, OPP 2
Västmanland: JA 5, OPP 4
Dalarna: JA 7, OPP 3
Total: JA 158, OPP 148
The addition of Bergslagen (and, to a lesser extent, Gothenburg) tips the scales in favour of the "January Bloc" in scenario C, and I think (though don't quote me on it) that the north will be enough to give the Red-Greens a majority in scenario B as well. The popular vote margin between the two blocs was small enough (just one seat apart, remember) that I wouldn't have been surprised if it went either way, but it seems more likely right now that the balance in the popular vote will match the seat shares.
Scenario A:
Stockholm City: S 19, M 14
Stockholm County: M 23, S 18, SD 1
Uppsala County: S 12, M 1
Södermanland: S 8, M 1, SD 1
Östergötland: S 16
Jönköping County: S 12
Kronoberg County: S 7
Kalmar County: S 9
Gotland: S 2
Blekinge: S 6
Skåne: S 18, SD 15, M 12, V 1
Halland: S 6, M 4, SD 1
Gothenburg: S 12, M 7, V 2
Västra Götaland (except Gothenburg): S 35, M 2, SD 1
Värmland: S 10
Örebro County: S 11
Västmanland: S 8, M 1
Dalarna: S 10
Total: S 219, M 65, SD 19, V 3
Scenario B:
Stockholm City: RG 19, ALL 14
Stockholm County: ALL 33, RG 9
Uppsala County: RG 7, ALL 6
Södermanland: RG 7, ALL 3
Östergötland: ALL 10, RG 6
Jönköping County: ALL 10, RG 2
Kronoberg County: ALL 5, RG 2
Kalmar County: RG 7, ALL 2
Gotland: RG 1, ALL 1
Blekinge: RG 6
Skåne: ALL 26, RG 17, NAT 3
Halland: ALL 7, RG 4
Gothenburg: RG 13, ALL 8
Västra Götaland (except Gothenburg: ALL 23, RG 15
Värmland: RG 9, ALL 1
Örebro County: RG 10, ALL 1
Västmanland: RG 6, ALL 3
Dalarna: RG 7, ALL 3
Total: ALL 156, RG 147, NAT 3
Scenario C:
Stockholm City: JA 28, OPP 5
Stockholm County: OPP 32, JA 10
Uppsala County: JA 9, OPP 4
Södermanland: JA 6, OPP 4
Östergötland: JA 11, OPP 5
Jönköping County: OPP 9, JA 3
Kronoberg County: OPP 5, JA 2
Kalmar County: JA 7, OPP 2
Gotland: JA 2
Blekinge: OPP 4, JA 2
Skåne: OPP 34, JA 12
Halland: OPP 7, JA 4
Gothenburg: JA 15, OPP 6
Västra Götaland (except Gothenburg: OPP 21, JA 17
Värmland: JA 9, OPP 1
Örebro County: JA 9, OPP 2
Västmanland: JA 5, OPP 4
Dalarna: JA 7, OPP 3
Total: JA 158, OPP 148
The addition of Bergslagen (and, to a lesser extent, Gothenburg) tips the scales in favour of the "January Bloc" in scenario C, and I think (though don't quote me on it) that the north will be enough to give the Red-Greens a majority in scenario B as well. The popular vote margin between the two blocs was small enough (just one seat apart, remember) that I wouldn't have been surprised if it went either way, but it seems more likely right now that the balance in the popular vote will match the seat shares.
EvilSpaceAlien
Prime Minister of the Underworld
- Location
- Bland sörlänningar
- Pronouns
- he/him
Happy to see that I appear to be living in a red seat (albeit somewhat narrowly) according to all scenarios. At least if I'm reading the borders correctly, but I don't think there's any way that Björkekärr would be ending up in Örgryte instead of Härlanda. Looking forward to see how my former homes Kramfors and Umeå will turn out, who could possibly figure out how those swingy bellwethers will vote?
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
Real nail-biter, that one.
- Location
- Das Böse ist immer und überall
- Pronouns
- he/him
It is done.
Scenario A
S 262
M 65
SD 19
V 3
Scenario B
RG 189
ALL 157
NAT 3
Scenario C
JA 201
OPP 148
Scenario A
S 262
M 65
SD 19
V 3
Scenario B
RG 189
ALL 157
NAT 3
Scenario C
JA 201
OPP 148
Magnificent work, Magnificent Max.
msmp
Insert Pine Tree Flag Here
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- he/him/his
One of the most fascinating experiments I've seen on any alternate history site. Truly splendid work!