Post-Ming musing

[varyar]

The ATL "Yan" Dynasty replacing the Ming instead of the Qing is still bouncing around my brain as it often has for the last few months. Today, while reading a book about the military collapse of the Ming, I came across an interesting passage ripe with WI potential.

Li Zicheng being the most successful rebel in late Ming China, and the one who actually managed to capture Beijing - for a few months, anyway. His actions (irretrievably alienating the Ming general who commanded a vital fortress between China and Manchuria, leading said general to ally with the Qing and march on Beijing) arguably resulted in the Qing being able to conquer all of China. So if he dies four years earlier, the fall of the Ming is going to play out somewhat differently. Who fills the void? Do the Qing still succeed in breaching the Great Wall (it wouldn't have been the first time) or does another Chinese rebel come out on top?

 

[Geordie]

My knowledge of China could be written on the back of a postage stamp, but I'm interested to see the discussion on this one.

 

[varyar]

Expanding on this a bit, I had an idea the other day. Koxinga (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koxinga) is a well-known figure in Chinese history, but he's too young (around 20 at the fall of the Ming) to probably play a major role in events in the ATL.

His father (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zheng_Zhilong), OTOH, started his career as a pirate and eventually amassed a very large fleet before entering service with the Ming. In 1646, he defected to the Qing. All this is to say he was a man with flexible loyalties.

So. In 1641, the most successful Chinese rebel dies ahead of schedule. This is likely (but not certain) to delay the fall of the Ming by a short period of time - six months, a year at the most? Let's say the Qing manage to break through the northeastern defenses, either helped by Ming defectors (as in OTL) or on their own. While war rages in the north, Zheng Zhilong decides to seize his chance. He turns on the Ming and using his holdings in Fujian as a base. His land forces march north to the Yangzi, while his fleet descends on it and other points along the coast of eastern and southern China. Some Ming loyalists resist him, many join his cause, still others join roaming groups of bandits and lesser rebels. Eventually, a multi-sided struggle turns into a battle between Zheng and the Qing. Can Zheng prevail, or at least create a divided China?

For my purposes, I'd like to say he wins and drives the Qing back into Manchuria, and then, being a pirate by nature, establishes a maritime-focused dynasty. Taiwan is taken, a bit earlier than in OTL (where, ironically, Zheng's heirs kept the Qing at bay for a few decades). Whither next? The Ryukyus, perhaps? Maybe even an island or two in the northern Philippines?

(I had an idea for a story where the Chinese colonize western North America, but that's not just soft AH, that's melted butter soft AH.)