Most plausible alternate Axis powers?

[Polyphemus]

I've been idly kicking around the idea of a larger Axis in WWII, though I don't know if that's necessarily a path to an Axis victory. What countries can be plausibly cajoled or bullied into joining the Axis?

I feel like I see Spain and Turkey floated the most, though both are in unenviable positions and their ability to actually contribute might be limited. Are there others that might be swayed?

 

[Jared]

Looking at which European powers* were still neutral (and uninvaded) for most of WW2, there's not a long list: Spain, Turkey**, Switzerland, Sweden, Portugal, and Ireland.

Ireland, Portugal and Switzerland can be safely ruled out, I think, barring divergences so far back that WW2 as we know it is unlikely. Getting Spain to actively join the Axis would have taken some doing, from what I understand (infrastructure wrecked by civil war, extremely vulnerable to Allied attacks). Turkey would be a struggle to get onto the Axis side as long as İnönü was president***, but I'm not familiar enough with Turkish politics of the era to know whether a different government in Turkey would be any more likely to join the Axis.

Sweden had a long tradition of neutrality by WW2. Getting it to change that would take some doing. Getting it on the Axis side would be even harder. Possibly if the French and British went ahead with a serious plan for an intervention in Sweden to capture the iron mines or to force intervention during the Winter War, you might get a Sweden which is at war with those countries for a while, but that would be unlikely to turn into serious Axis membership.

Outside of Europe, there's not many plausible candidates who didn't already join one side or the other. Iran is perhaps the most plausible candidate to join the Axis (though still not very likely), but given what happened to them in OTL with the Anglo-Soviet invasion, I doubt that Iran would be an Axis power for very long even if it joined.

* Microstates such as Andorra are not "powers."
** Yes, I know Turkey entered WW2 with a few months to go.
*** Well, unless the war was going so well for the Axis that they appeared to have an easy victory, which seems unlikely.

 

[Catalunya]

If you somehow get someone Şükrü Saraçoğlu as Turkey’s president during WW2, you can definitely have an Axis Turkey, though the only way I see that happening is having İnönü die at just the right time. Also even if İnönü dies Bayar will always be one of the favorites to succeed him, and if anything he would be even more pro-Allies, and probably allow a new front through Turkey.

 

[Mumby]

In Chasing Shadows, I have the war in Asia develop differently - the February 26th incident results in the Kodoha faction of the military securing control of the Japanese Government. Virulently reactionary and totalitarian, they prioritise military build up for a war with the Soviets rather than pursuing further expansion in China. They assist Chiang Kaishek in fighting the Communists and the other warlords who want to push the Japanese out of Manchuria. By the time WW2 rolls around, Japan and China are already fighting the Soviets.

 

[Gary Oswald]

USSR as a formal member of the axis in a tl when the allies do declare war over finland?

Be only temporary obviously.

 

[Time Enough]

Ireland, Portugal

I always think it’s much easier to make Ireland and Portugal awkward members of the Allies than for them to throw there lot with the Axis. Same with Turkey, given that sort of happened.

All in all it’s quite hard. Iran is a good possibility though it just becomes Iraq Conflict 2.0: This time with Soviets. I would also add maybe a South American country could possibly help out though I’m not sure who and they like end up being pushed out by the Americans anyway.

 

[Creekmench]

Yugoslavia, could be feasible in a tl with no coup, i guess?

 

[Gary Oswald]

Yugoslavia, could be feasible in a tl with no coup, i guess?

Greece too. Though that would require much more major internal changes.

 

[Nyvis]

I've been idly kicking around the idea of a larger Axis in WWII, though I don't know if that's necessarily a path to an Axis victory. What countries can be plausibly cajoled or bullied into joining the Axis?

I feel like I see Spain and Turkey floated the most, though both are in unenviable positions and their ability to actually contribute might be limited. Are there others that might be swayed?

Brazil definitely. Reds! does it and it's pretty natural, setting up for another theater of the world war.

 

[Gary Oswald]

Brazil definitely. Reds! does it and it's pretty natural, setting up for another theater of the world war.

I feel like the innate challenge of any fascist South Americans actively joining the axis, rather than just sitting in South America oppressing their own people, is the Americans not putting up with that shit in their backyard.

 

[Yokai Man]

I feel like the innate challenge of any fascist South Americans actively joining the axis, rather than just sitting in South America oppressing their own people, is the Americans not putting up with that shit in their backyard.

One of the most absurd examples of this in AH is in Victor Cilinca’s Natasa where Batista just becomes a Nazi in ‘42 after Britain is forced into a peace treaty via a complicated time travel plot to kill Hitler by surprise and it’s the most implausible thing in the story,
especially since 1940’s Batista was openly against the Axis and once proposed to the Americans that the Allies should invade Spain to liberate it of Franco.

And yes,I know it’s ironic that he proposed that given where he died in exile but still,he was a different guy back then and genuinely the least likely South American strongman/dictator of the era that would have joined the Axis,willingly or not.

 

[Coiler]

I feel like the innate challenge of any fascist South Americans actively joining the axis, rather than just sitting in South America oppressing their own people, is the Americans not putting up with that shit in their backyard.

Polls even before Pearl Harbor showed a big majority of Americans supportive of preventing the Axis from gaining in a foothold in the Western Hemisphere. If they tried something like that, it would be FDR's dream come true.

 

[Yokai Man]

One of the most absurd examples of this in AH is in Victor Cilinca’s Natasa where Batista just becomes a Nazi in ‘42 after Britain is forced into a peace treaty via a complicated time travel plot to kill Hitler by surprise and it’s the most implausible thing in the story,
especially since 1940’s Batista was openly against the Axis and once proposed to the Americans that the Allies should invade Spain to liberate it of Franco.

And yes,I know it’s ironic that he proposed that given where he died in exile but still,he was a different guy back then and genuinely the least likely South American strongman/dictator of the era that would have joined the Axis,willingly or not.

And here’s the thing-Cilinca is genuinely one of the best AH Romanian writers in my view. The story isn’t that bad,it’s just that he chose Batista of all people to show that the Nazis have gained more power and that the Americans have become more and more isolationists.

He’s a good writer,it’s just that in this case he may have needed to rework some details like Japan just not declaring war on USA because one day before the attack Hirohito just dies and everything is called off indefinitely.

 

[Nyvis]

I feel like the innate challenge of any fascist South Americans actively joining the axis, rather than just sitting in South America oppressing their own people, is the Americans not putting up with that shit in their backyard.

All you need if some reason for the Americans to not be okay with them existing at all to push them towards their other enemies. Like an ideological enmity in the case of Reds! but I'm sure we can find something.

 

[Charles EP M.]

Greece too. Though that would require much more major internal changes.

If Greece joins the Axis, Mussolini's going be extremely upset about his Mare Nostrum idea being messed up by Athens being his nominal mates. That'd make for some fun inter-Axis politics and Mediterranean naval operations.

 

[TheIO]

If Greece joins the Axis, Mussolini's going be extremely upset about his Mare Nostrum idea being messed up by Athens being his nominal mates. That'd make for some fun inter-Axis politics and Mediterranean naval operations.

Not sure if having to be friends with Greece is more embarrassing for Mussolini than losing to Greece.

 

[Gary Oswald]

If Greece joins the Axis, Mussolini's going be extremely upset about his Mare Nostrum idea being messed up by Athens being his nominal mates. That'd make for some fun inter-Axis politics and Mediterranean naval operations.

Well that's essentially in reverse why Metaxas, who was a Germanophile fascist whose country's largest trading party was Germany, was such a strong ally of the UK. Once Italy took Albania, he felt that Germany would support Italy rather than Greece because an alliance with Italy would be more useful. So he had to put all his balls in the British basket.

You'd need a stronger German line in the Balkans for Hitler to go 'sit down Benito, Greece, Yugoslavia, Romania and Bulgaria have signed this agreement with us and we're all going after the brits and soviets as one big set of buddies. Worry about everything else, afterwards'.

That's undoubtedly what Germany wanted but in otl, the need to placate Italy was much stronger and Greece in particular felt free enough to reach out to the UK rather than buckle under.

A Metaxas with less confidence in his military might agree a german proposed land swap to placate both (british cyprus for the ionian islands going to Italy) but it'd be a huge blow to any nationalist minded government.

 

[Charles EP M.]

Not sure if having to be friends with Greece is more embarrassing for Mussolini than losing to Greece.

Much less embarrassing, but he won't see it that way because then he'd have to be aware the Greeks could fight him off.

 

[Nyvis]

If Greece joins the Axis, Mussolini's going be extremely upset about his Mare Nostrum idea being messed up by Athens being his nominal mates. That'd make for some fun inter-Axis politics and Mediterranean naval operations.

(dubious) Allies Mussolini, Axis Greece?

The allies ending up having to prop up Mussolini's wild adventures would be an interesting ride.

 

[Time Enough]

Allies Mussolini

More likely a neutral Mussolini, with deals being made by the British to keep him happy etc.

In terms of South America, Brazil won’t join the Axis because despite having a Fascist leader of sorts, Brazil was incredibly Pro-America at this period of time. Brazil fighting America would be incredibly unpopular with its population, which is why the joined with the Allies OTL.