We always hear people saying that everything would be better if a third party was elected, but what would really happen? 1992 and the Depresson are typically where such scenarios take place, but what about in the modern age?
f u t u r e h i s t o r y
Don't Worry About The Government
2017-2021:
Gary Johnson/Tim Kaine (Libertarian/Democratic)
2016 def. Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic), Donald Trump/Michael Flynn (Republican), Gary Johnson/Willian Weld (Libertarian), Bernie Sanders/None (Write-in), Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)
2021-2025:
Bernie Sanders/William Weld (Independent/Libertarian)
2020 def. Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard (Independent), Gary Johnson/William Weld (Libertarian), Donald Trump/Dana Rohrabacher (Republican), Terry McAullife/Gavin Newsom (Democratic)
2025-2029:
Mitt Romney/Dwayne Johnson (Independent)
2024 def. Tulsi Gabbard/Ro Khanna (Rebel Left), Jason Kander/Steve Bullock (Democratic), Larry Sharpe/Rand Paul (True Libertarian-Republican)
2029-2037:
Richard Ojeda/Martin O’Malley (Democratic)
2028 def. Adam Carolla/Corey Stewart (Patriotic Party of the Proletariat), Jesse Ventura/Chelsea Manning (Rebel Left)
2032 def. Larry Sharpe/Tim Scott (United People's), Andrew Yang/Kyle Kulinski (Universal Society-Continuity Rebel Left)
2037-2038:
Martin O'Malley†/Jason Kander (Democratic)
2036 def. Tulsi Gabbard/Megan McCain (United People's)
2038-2038:
Jason Kander/Vacant (Democratic)
2038-2041:
Jason Kander/Jeremy Hill (Democratic)
2041-Present:
Larry Sharpe/Justin Amash (United People's)
2040 def. Jason Kander/Jeremy Hill (Democratic)
As two deeply unpopular presidential candidates faced off in the 2016 election, Gary Johnson hoped for a major upset for the Libertarian Party. His running mate, former Massachusetts Governor William Weld, gave a sense of legitimacy to the ticket. Upon winning at the Convention on the first ballot, Johnson was off to attract as much support from the major parties as possible. While the Koch Brothers, former Libertarian members, announced their donations to the Johnson campaign, the biggest turning point was the announcement of Mitt Romney (a close friend of Weld), former 2016 nominee, that he would support the Libertarian ticket. Other Republicans announced their support, from libertarians such as Justin Amash and Rand Paul, pro-choice Senators Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, and prolific anti-Trumpers like Ben Sasse and the Bush family. Some former Bernie Sanders supporters also offered support to Johnson, as he refused to endorse any candidate in the general election (following absolutely disastrous negotiations between Sanders and Clinton officials). With greater attention from the media, Johnson was put into the debate for polling above 15% (following Ross Perot and John Anderson).
Johnson, while not a strong debater, was able to benefit from the fighting between Trump and Clinton to allow himself a greater position (regardless of all the publicity gained). Following the first debate, Johnson was polling at 1992 Perot-levels. However, scandals began to surround Trump and his running mate, Michael Flynn. Flynn had failed to register as a foreign agent as he conducted work for the Turkish government (having met with Turkish officials on the subject of abducting Fethullah Gülen). Republicans quickly encouraged Trump to drop Flynn from the ticket, but the news was quickly overshadowed by the "Access Hollywood" tapes of Trump making derogatory comments about women. Clinton and Johnson quickly responded to the news along with many Republicans. Many Republicans dropped their support for Trump, though many did not explicitly back Johnson. This was directly before the second presidential debate, where Trump's disastrous performance coupled with the newfound internet meme Ken Bone. The final nail in the coffin for the Trump campaign would be the announcement of an affair with porn star Stormy Daniels, which eliminated any hope of Trump even having a respectable second. Johnson took the second place position in most opinion polls, with many even putting him ahead of Clinton.
Election Night 2016 would ultimately prove inconclusive. Johnson had won the popular vote but had taken third place in the electoral college, which was won by Hillary Clinton. Bernie Sanders would win Vermont through write-in votes, and Jill Stein would give the Greens federal funding. The map was divided among regional lines, with Johnson taking much of the West as Trump took over the South. The election was sent to the Republican-controlled House and the Democratic-controlled Senate (through Vice President Biden's tie-breaking vote). Given how deeply unpopular Trump was, many Republicans feared losing reelection or were simply morally opposed to having Trump as president. Johnson himself rallied the popular vote argument, but he knew that deals would have to be made to get a majority of state delegations. However, the Senate vote was much easier, with Tim Kaine being the replacement to Vice President Biden.
Eventually, Johnson agreed to appoint a proportional number of Republicans to his cabinet, including three of the four top cabinet positions. This comforted fears that Johnson would appoint mass numbers of inexperienced Libertarian paper candidates to his administration. Foreign affairs journalist P.J. O'Rourke was announced as Secretary of State, 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney as Secretary of the Treasury, William Weld as Attorney General, and Mike Leavitt, the former Governor of Utah as Secretary of Defense. These names and those of the rest of the cabinet were largely from the right of the political spectrum (although Democrat Mike Sullivan and Democratic-allied Greg Orman were included as well). Despite Donald Trump declaring the election result to be rigged (and declaring himself the Legitimate President), Gary Johnson was sworn in as the first Libertarian president.
Johnson's main weakness in office was that he had very few supporters in Congress, causing issues with implementing his legislative agenda. Republicans agreed with much of Johnson's economic agenda but rejected the social side of his policies (with the Democrats mirroring this position). This showed early on, as Johnson was unable to appoint many Libertarian Party members for a lack of support in the Senate. Johnson's first decision would be to fill the Supreme Court vacancy of Justice Scalia, with Johnson's reappointment Merrick Garland being confirmed by the new Democratic Senate. Legalization of marijuana would also be an important issue for Johnson, with him ordering Attorney General Weld to deschedulize cannabis. While this did not please most Republicans (RAND PAUL SITS AT THE WEIRD KIDS LUNCH TABLE), Johnson's defunding of numerous federal agencies (such as Commerce, Energy, TSA, and HUD) scored him more victories with the GOP. To the disillusionment of many Sandersite Libertarians, Johnson governed more as a Republican than as a Democrat (in accordance with his past in New Mexico).
This was not something that many Republicans were pleased about, with "alt-right" protests (often attended by Donald Trump) taking place for the defense of Confederate symbols or in opposition to left-wing or pro-PC policies. The growing "alt-right" movement recruited numerous candidates for the 2018 mid-terms, defeating many better-positioned candidates for Republican nominations across the country. The 2018 midterms would be a test for all parties, with the two conventional parties looking to take the Senate as the Libertarians hoped to make a breakthrough. Ultimately, the Democrats would retain control of the Senate, as red-state Democrats did not have to worry about ties to an incumbent Democratic President. Incumbents Jeff Flake and Bob Menendez lost reelection. Gubernatorial elections were more localized for the specific candidates, but it was generally a positive night for the Democrats. The biggest news would be a shock upset in New York, where Libertarian-Republican fusion candidate Larry Sharpe (who narrowly lost to Weld in 2016 for VP) defeated WFP nominee Cynthia Nixon and Governor Andrew Cuomo in a shocking victory. Sharpe was instantly praised as the future of the Libertarian Party, and proof that the party was not just a vehicle for former Republicans.
Gary Johnson prepared for the 2020 race, where he would attempt to finally bury the two-party system. The 2020 LNC was met with opposition from radical Libertarian D.W. Perry, but Johnson was overwhelmingly approved for reelection. On the Democratic side, businessman Mark Cuban and Senator Martin O'Malley were making waves, while establishment Democrats rallied behind former Governor Terry McAullife. Republicans suffered a similar problem, as Tom Cotton and Bruce Rauner were hoping to prevent a second Trump nomination, which could prove disastrous. However, the decision of Senator Bernie Sanders to run as an independent to avoid the "machine politics" of the Democratic Party (in a move compared to Andrés Manuel López Obrador's 2018 campaign under MORENA) gave hope to the Republicans. Republicans believed that Johnson 2020 would collapse as the Libertarians finally entered government, allowing the left to split their way to a conservative victory. Unfortunately, that plan went spectacularly wrong. Trump's supporters turned out in massive numbers for their candidate, leaving the Republicans with just as much egg on their faces in 2020. Adding salt to their round was the selection of pro-Russia Congressman Dana Rohrabacher as Trump's running mate as he faced an investigation into Russian ties to his 2016 campaign. Meanwhile, Sandersites voting for unpledged pro-Sanders delegates resulted in the staunch Clintonite McAullife to win the Democratic nomination.
McAullife's campaign was loathed for its perceived elitism and snobbery as the "establishment" and anti-populist candidate in the race. Sanders was able to use his position as one of the most popular politicians in America to fight against the "false hopes" of Gary Johnson. This argument was effective, and his slick advertising campaign made Johnson seem like the establishment conservative candidate. It was still clear that 2020 was a fragmented election and that no candidate would anywhere near the necessary 270 EVs.
That was an accurate prediction. Albeit an extremely underestimated one.
Sanders finished first in both the popular and electoral vote, but he did not even receive 200 EVs or 30% of the popular vote. Given that Congress was controlled by the Democrats and Speaker Cedric Richmond, Sanders was confirmed in a relatively calm process (as McAullife finished fourth). The Senate was the interesting question, as many Democrats preferred William Weld to the controversial Tulsi Gabbard. With the support of the Republican Senate caucus, Weld was confirmed by a larger margin than expected. It was quickly pointed out that when Weld's running mate won the election, he didn't become veep, but when they lost, he did.
Unfortunately, while Sanders' move to run as an independent secured him a place on the ballot and separation from the Democratic Party, it resulted in numerous poor results. Many Congressional Democrats were reluctant to support much of Sanders' agenda, given that he had run against them and worked with the much-hated Green Party. Many Sandersite candidates had run against Democratic candidates in general elections, resulting in them losing general elections due to a split vote. Unlike Johnson, Sanders did not have many other allies to work within the Congress, leaving much of his agenda defeated. Sanders' much-hyped "Medicare For All" plan was not able to be implemented, with an Obamacare+ policy being put together as a compromise measure. To help support his presidency, Tulsi Gabbard organized the "Rebel Left Party" as a pro-administration bloc, with Sanders all-but supporting the new party. The launch of the party in the 2022 midterms was a mixed bag, as Sanders voters seemed to be split on which party would truly provide a stronger government for Sanders.
With a term that was a disappointment for himself and him reaching an advanced age, Sanders announced that he would not run for a second term. Tulsi Gabbard became the Rebel Left nominee, with minor opposition from the revolutionary socialist wing of the party. Meanwhile, the Libertarian frontrunner, William Weld, refused efforts to run. With Gary Johnson in "peak retirement" in Taos, the race was divided. The candidate of former Republicans and Weldites was Mitt Romney, who had been elected Governor of Utah. His fellow Governor, Larry Sharpe, was the candidate of the more radical wing who had been pre-2016 members of the Libertarians. In an epic battle for the heart and soul of the Libertarian Party (and other cliches in flowery language), Romney was able to prevail by being able to recruit numerous new members to the party from the Republicans. Sharpe was unwilling to accept defeat, given that he had much higher approval ratings than Romney. With the support of Republican nominee Rand Paul, Sharpe formed a "United Right" ticket with the Republican Party. While many had expected a two-horse race, the "United Right" ticket and the young and charismatic Jason Kander being selected as the Democratic nominee meant that there was a much broader field than before.
Romney was quickly praised and mocked for his choice of Florida Governor Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson as his running mate, who added likeability and livelihood to the Romney campaign. As the left remained split and Romney held a significant advantage in nomination and fundraising, Romney was able to capitalize. With his calm position in the debates against the fiery Kander, Gabbard, and Sharpe, Romney's strategy was to ride the waves of American politics until Election Night, with Johnson doing most of the heavy hitting. Sure enough, come November, Romney finished nine points over his nearest rival in the popular vote, Tulsi Gabbard (although many commentators noted the small gap between her and Kander). Still, he was unable to get a majority of the electoral votes, but the Libertarians and Republicans in Congress were unable to get their man into the top three, leaving them with no choice but to pick Romney. Johnson was also approved by the Senate, with votes of a few Democrats.
Quickly, Romney was faced with a large public backlash from his party on his appointees to his cabinet along with his initial policy engagements. While Romney had made his career as a conventional Republican, many expected a Romney freed from the GOP to present an alternative manifesto that would be more moderate and anti-establishment. Of course, this was not at all what actually happened, as Romney's policies were bog-standard Reaganite Republican. A growing populist movement began to rise against Romney, with unthinkable political alliances in Congress forming to oppose a president that began to look more and more like a lame duck. Even ignoring all the issues of the growing populist movement, Romney would be over 80 years old by 2028.
Corey Stewart, on-and-off Governor of Virginia, formed a political alliance he proclaimed to be a "conservative movement for the working family." The new Patriotic Party of the Proletariat (or Triple-P Alliance) was met with many defections, but other than Larry Sharpe, Stewart was one of the most important figures on the right of the political spectrum. Sharpe agreed to have the Libertarians support the Triple-P Alliance and give Stewart significant powers in an administration if he agreed not to run. Reluctantly, Stewart agreed, with comedian and conservative commentator Adam Carolla being the nominee, with his libertarian and anti-PC views being popular with both parties. Stewart also knew that he would be able to influence Carolla on numerous political issues.
Meanwhile, the left had been planning for their comeback after four years in the opposition. Jason Kander's 2024 nomination had led to a surge in the "Agrarian Democratic" faction in the party, with Kander, Martin O'Malley, Richard Ojeda, Steve Bullock, and numerous other Democrats being leaders in the remade party. Ojeda was the leader of the faction for the 2028 cycle, with him easily defeating Cory Booker and a host of other candidates. The Rebel Left was much less organized. After the death of Bernie Sanders, the party was left with no clear leader. In the 2028 eConvention, the growing far-left faction faced off against the Gabbardites and conventional social democrats/leftists. Through this scramble, conspiracy theorist Jesse Ventura was nominated with convicted felon and whistleblower Chelsea Manning.
While all three candidates were certainly populists, the Carolla and Ventura campaigns were clearly not run in a competent fashion, with mismanaging, party disunity, and extremism issues. Ojeda's down-to-earth populism was compared by many to William Jennings Bryan or Huey Long, but still was something that showed responsibility and stability.
The election of Ojeda was a continuation of the electoral trends of the 21st century. This was continued under his sucessors, O'Malley, Kander, and Sharpe. Again, it seems the left is divided. Former Vice President and Governor of Georgia Jeremy Hill's libertarian socialist outlook is attempting to take down the Ojeda consensus in the never ending battle for control of the Democrats. However, while 2040 appears to be an outstanding victory for the right of the political spectrum, Sharpe's support for the establishment of communes is something that has revolutionized govermetn as we know it. The CPUSA commune led by Dionysios Bower and the Silicon Valley commune led by Elon Musk are growing in numbers, as rebelious youth flock to groups with their ideals in mind. The future of America is one that might take many paths, but it is undenyable that it will be very different from what it was just a decade ago.