get on board - it's a fun thing to do
Considering France has fixed terms elections, it wouldn't be as interesting Also I'm stumped about the how considering how unlikely any of it would be, my political views are quite outside the mainstream.
So I'm going to be creative and inject a bit of alternate lead up to it, still mostly just using people who did run for office. The main difference here is just an earlier and bigger economic crisis to give my postman boy a shot (he got 4% so uh, he needs the help).
Fifth republic, 2007-2012: Olivier Besançenot (LCR/Union of the left) - minority government with PS support
First round: def Ségolène Royal (PS), Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP)
Second round: def Jean Marie Le Pen (FN)
Union of the left forms as a confederation of far left movements to run a common campaign after an earlier economic crisis has even worse consequences, cascading into widespread economic destruction. It craters UMP's popularity due to the crisis happening while they're in government. The PS fumbles their answer despite the open door this should have left them and the first round is extremely contested, with Union of the left squeaking into second place against a FN also benefiting from the crisis. A few concessions about the nature of post election government with the PS manage to reassure the moderate left enough to win the second round, and Besançenot is sworn in as president, overseeing the recovery through rather radical measures, including support for worker buyout of failing companies, stimulus conditioned on worker participation and guarantee to maintain jobs, work programs for the unemployed, reduction in work hours across the board to distribute remaining work, rent cancellation and stimulus investment in local production to ensure increased self reliance. A lot of the programs get chipped away at in the assembly and senate, but it still changes the French economic situation quite a bit. With the economy stabilizing enough to guarantee people's needs, the Union government attempts to reform away the 5th republic but it is defeated in the assembly due to PS objection.
Fifth republic, 2012-2017: Philippe Poutou (NPA/Union of the left) - coalition with PS diss.
First round: def Jean-François Copé (UMP), Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN)
Second round: def François Hollande (PS)
Besançenot retires after one term, satisfied with the economic recovery but unhappy about the inability to reform France further. With the economy steady and France reassured that the left can govern, the Union shifts gear to concerns about the political system, campaigning hard on the failed attempt to reform the republic, promising a participative constitutional convention, with a lot of grassroot support by organizations that spouted during the worst of the depression. The promise of consulation on the reforms does attract other left leaning democracy enthusiasts fed up with the 5th republic and the Union manages a victory against a PS drifting to the right and rejecting the idea of a second minority government, but absorbing an ailing UDF's left wing. An UMP change in leadership fail to distance them from the crisis enough to help them despite absorbing the rest of UDF and the FN's railing about the dirty reds in the Elysée doesn't really endear them outside their base. The Union ends up governing in coalition with PS dissidents interested in a constitutional assembly, which takes the bulk of its focus, but it also oversees the participative economic plans it put in place, while the PS dissidents who joined the government try to smooth things over with the European Union despite the divergent economic positions. A less troubled time also gives it more room to address social issues, passing gay marriage and improving transgender care, including dropping the prerequisite of SRS for civil status change.
Fifth republic, 2014-2016: Participative assembly on the constitutional project - Participative Socialist Republic (Union of the left/PS diss.)
def: Parliamentary Republic (PS), No Change (UMP), National Republic (FN), Socialist Republic (Union of the left diss.), Citizens' republic (Ind), Federal Republic (Regional)
Fifth republic, 2016: Referendum on the Participative Republic as the 6th republic - YES (Union of the left, PS diss., Ind left, Regional)
def: NO (UMP, PS, FN, Ind right)
Sixth republic, 2016-2018: Benoit Hamon (PSP/Union of the left) - majority government
def: Edouard Philippe (LR diss./Ind center), François Fillon (LR), Yannick Jadot (EELV), Marine Le Pen (FN), Raphaël Glucksmann (PS), Priscillia Ludosky/Eric Drouet (Citoyens), Manuel Valls (PS diss.)
The success of the participative assembly and referendum buoys the union into the new participative elections, but also opens the door to fully admitting the dissident PS wing into the Union, as the Parti Socialiste Participatif. Hamon runs an energetic primary within the Union on the need for continuous education about the participative model and a new way of thinking about an economy where human labour is less and less required, arguing for an universal income scheme funded by taxes on the remaining capitalist sector and on automation. He accrues a lot of positive coverage for appealing to new converts while being left wing enough to not antagonize the older wing of the Union, and this translates directly to a victory in the participative election. The nature of the new republic means that rather than a single ticket, all the parties of the Union are represented directly, while he gets to lead the government. The rest of the political sphere splinters when faced with the new system, with participative representatives often less loyal to the party and willing to follow different leaders. The Hamon government falls to a vote of no confidence from participative representatives of the Union over his handling of European judgement against some of the more radical French economic measures, his willingness to pull back some of the measures infuriating the rest of the Union.
Sixth republic, 2018: participative no confidence vote: against the government (Union of the left, Citoyens, FN, LR)
def: for the government (PSP, PS, EELV, LR diss.)
Sixth republic, 2018-2020: Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI/Union of the left) - majority government
def:
Edouard Philippe/Manuel Valls (Democracy!), Benoit Hamon/Eric Piolle (PSP/PS/EELV), Marine Le Pen (FN)
The election following the fall of the government is a stark departure for the good feelings of the post referendum vote. PSP leaves the Union while maintaining its support for the new republic, and join in with the center left, the center congregate around PS dissident and LR dissident figures calling for unity against the "tyranny" of the participative republic, while the FN run their usual quixotic campaign, increasingly irrelevant in the face of more direct means for people to air their grievances. But the most notable about face is in the Union, where Mélenchon's new movement collects less ideologically committed people united by the wave of Euroskepticism. His government is ultimately short lived because force of personality cannot replace organization, and after 2 years spent in Brussels more than in Paris without much to show for it while the rest of the Union has to run everything else in the background as his movement falls into infighting, he throws the towel and retires.
Sixth republic, 2019-*: Collective Leadership (Union of the left) - minority government with PSP support, then majority government
As the campaign to replace Mélenchon is heating up, the first cases of Covid19 are detected in France, and the Union quickly votes in a collective government to oversee the handling of the pandemic using the minority of participative delegates they still have support from despite LFI's collapse. Despite the radicals within the union being ascendant with the debacle of the less ideologically committed attempts at government, the PSP does agree to bring the government over the line and find enough voters willing to push their delegates in voting for it in the light of the looming pandemic. As the colossal potential for economic damage is revealed, the radicals find themselves vindicated and quick recall of moderate delegates bring them to a majority, enough to pass a comprehensive program of direct relief to quarantined people and direct command of the economy to ensure necessities keep flowing while minimizing exposure due to less critical work. Might get them in trouble with the EU later, but they'll think about it when everything isn't on fire anymore.
Here, I did a thing. By the way, I think this is the first bit of AH I've posted here. Hopefully it looks good.
I broke the 5th republic because 1) I hate it and 2) no fixed terms means more fun for me.